9/9/26: Iran Launches Massive Strikes, US Bond Crisis Deepens, Bibi Warned Of Oct 7 Week Before

24:07And the public understands that as well. whether that's us in World War I or World War II or Germany in World War II. They were eating grass by the end of the South and during the Civil War in the U.S. It was practically starving by the end of the Civil War.

24:22Emily Jashinsky:They ate a camel. Yes, it was, yes. And so now what Iran gets is they get the wartime rationing policy that every government needs, but they also get to blame the United States for it, which is a nice little propaganda gift. That's a good point. For them. But if you think about the history of warfare, correct me if I'm wrong, I cannot think of a single country that has ever surrendered because it had to ration food and supplies and material for its civilian population. I can think of cities in like biblical times and medieval times that were like starved until they capitulated to like Attila the Hun or whatever outside of their gates but that's that's different than things are things are worse during wartime than they were during peacetime and so therefore we surrender like I I can't think of a single example of that ever happening this is and you would think also by the way this would have already happened if it was that significant because again we're in a war and if it is as existential as the trump administration claims i guess it's sort of unfathomable that you would have not sanctioned all of this if it's so significant up until this point right and that makes very little sense and it's 27 airlines it's Yeah, they say that they also sanctioned intermediaries that were allowing the Iranians to get jets for the IRGC through Oman and I think the UAE over the course of the summer.

26:05Emily Jashinsky:So that's, I guess, what they're looking at now. Yeah. And meanwhile, a friend of the show, Saeed Mohammed-Randi, saying that, hey, maybe we'll now maybe we can share this this Anderil thing with our Chinese and Russian friends, suckers. We will see.

26:53get the setup you'll actually be proud to put on the table. At HeadShop.com, your setup stops looking basic and starts looking like yours. HeadShop. H-E-A-D-S-H-O-P.com. The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast. The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football. Williams, drifting, sprinting for space, in all kinds of trouble, put it up for next. He is up there! He got it! For the touchdown! They've done it again! We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more. We fly around every single place!

27:35We dominate every single place! Want to hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups? We've got you covered. They're a really good football team. We've got to have all hands on deck. Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Jay Valentine. I've spent my career on the executive side of this industry, multi-platinum songs, building artists, and building business.

28:09And alongside my brother Tank, the superstar R &B singer, songwriter, and producer, we've created something special, the R &B Money Podcast. This is not just a podcast. It's a safe space where artists, executives, and fans of R &B music come to reminisce, pull back the curtain, and tell the stories that shaped this culture, the real history behind the hits. That was hood famous. Yeah. And then Real Love came out and it blew up. We lived in a project. Yeah, and they're seeing all the success. They're hearing the music and we had nothing. We're covering the entire spectrum from Smokey Robinson, Alicia Keys B2K, Mary J.

28:44Blige legends, current stars and everyone who's contributed to the sound of R &B. You come out the gate with a hit. And then knock Michael Jackson out of number one. Come on man. I was like hold on. I'm not gonna MJ out of the number one spot. If you're a super dedicated R &B fan who wants the real discovery the real stories, this is your podcast. This is the R &B Money Podcast. Listen to R &B money from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

29:16Emily Jashinsky:More bond market chaos, no surprise to Breaking Points viewers, but let's put B1 up on the screen. This is Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Golibov, saying wheels up, warm-ups before liftoff, diesel ATH, short it, your biggest creditor dumping, good luck with Yentervention, N-O-R, cutting$80 billion, renamed Norway to America Way. Oh, he's N-O-R is Nor. We're going to get to that in just one moment. But low recruitment debt to service with D-O-W for your puppeteers. But he also put Israel in brackets. Oh, Fed's dot plot flashing red. So some trolling here from Ghalibov, Ryan. What do you make of that?

29:53Yeah, these are always fun to go through. Ghalibov is quite a character. He's been trying to be president of Iran for like his whole life, basically. Same. The public's been like, yeah, you're kind of cool, but like, I don't know about presidential material. But I think they're loving the role that he's playing at this point. He was also the guy, do you remember when the Lebanese and Israelis said, no Iranian officials can come to Lebanon, and if they do, we're going to shoot their plane out of the sky? and Ghalibov, who was himself a pilot, himself piloted the plane to Lebanon and they filmed him landing the plane himself.

30:36He's their Sully. He is. Their Speaker of the Parliament, this is a year or two ago or something. It was fairly recently. Google and find this. He's a character. They did not shoot him out of the sky. He landed the plane successfully and took it off. That takes some stones. The chance you're going to get shot down there is non-trivial in that moment. Okay, so what's he say here? Warm-ups before liftoff. So this is a reference to Scott Besson telling the global public that the American economy is in the phase of liftoff. Like, we are, just get out of the way, because the U.S. economy is absolutely surging.

31:16Look out. So he says diesel, A-T-H, means all-time high, which was almost$6 a gallon for diesel at this point, which is the lifeblood of kind of an industrial economy in the United States. Your biggest creditor dumping, good luck with Yentervention. So the intervention is a reference to, and maybe we have an element we'll throw up here. Yeah, this is B2. Put up B2. The intervention was when Besant threw a bunch of American money at the Japanese central bank to try to prop up the Japanese yen. Because, as we said at the time, he was afraid that if we didn't prop up the yen, then Japan would intervene itself to prop it up.

32:02And the way that Japan would get the capital to prop it up would be by selling treasuries. So we threw billions of dollars at it. That money blew away in the breeze. Didn't work. And so exactly as Besant feared, it appears that Iran, I mean, Japan is now selling a bunch of its treasuries to get its own cash to prop up its economy, which itself is being battered by high oil prices, high energy prices, which is fueling inflation. The inflation is battering their currency. So it's the war that is doing all of it. Then he says, Norway, cutting$80 billion, renamed Norway to America way. So Norway, because of its sovereign wealth fund is one of the most significant holders of U.S.

33:00treasuries. And over the past, what, weeks, months, their holdings in treasuries have declined by roughly $80 billion. We're talking about trillions of dollars in total debt, but if the biggest holders of the debt are moving away from it in a significant way, this ends up mattering. Then low recruitment. Recruitment means how many buyers you can get at your auctions. And the amount of buyers that you can get at your treasury auctions then converts into what kind of interest rate you have to pay. he's bragging about how our high debt to service uh ratio yeah that we are paying and he may be alluding here to the fact that the debt that we're that the amount we're paying to service our debt is almost equivalent now to what we're paying for our entire department of war which he calls the department of israel's war and again he would be correct and then finally he says uh oh feds dot plot flashing red.

34:08The dot plot is the prediction that the central bankers on the Federal Open Market Committee make every meeting where they say, we think next time inflation is going to be this and our policy is going to be this. And if the dots are red, it's because they're higher. And that is the expectation. The expectation over the last several weeks has moved from kind of neutral to actually there's probably going to be a rate hike. So everything is going wrong for the U.S. and the global economy slowly. And Goliboff making fun of the idea that wheels up and just about to be lift off.

34:50Emily Jashinsky:The signs of, well, yeah, here, let's put B4 up on the screen because Ryan mentioned it. This is from Fortune. U.S. debt is even worse than it seems and rising treasury yields are now in, quote, all hands on deck situation, top economist warns. This was from Robin Brooks, the senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who said U.S. policy is now focused on preventing long-term borrowing costs from shooting higher and pointed to Besson's efforts to double debt buybacks, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that reassured markets on his inflation-fighting credibility. That's a hell of a decision coming down this week, right, Ryan?

35:26Emily Jashinsky:There's a, yeah, the Fed meeting this week. Brooks added that the economic data releases that, Brooks added that economic data releases that indicate weaker activity have failed to bring down long-term yields, unlike the historical pattern revealing how much upward pressure is coming from the market. And it's apparent. Actually, next week, next Wednesday. Oh, it's next Wednesday. Apparent all signs right now, not all signs, but many significant signs are pointing towards a potential catastrophe, global economic catastrophe happening in the not so distant future. Yes. And Trump recently warned the Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, if you don't cut rates, I am going to cut off trade with the entire world, with everybody who has a trade surplus with us, which will spark a recession, which would then force you to cut rates.

36:24I will drive, I will turn this car around unless you immediately cut rates.

36:32Emily Jashinsky:I will immiserate the American people unless you slightly less immiserate the American people. And did we throw up B3? I think we did. The Kobe C letter chart. Let's put it up again though. What a mess. What an absolute mess. Yeah, take a look at this chart. This is negative long run returns on 15 year treasuries. That's brutal that's brutal this goes back to 1936 so the people who had faith in our uh debt and it's a bank of america and held it as a store of their wealth are falling further behind the people the funds yeah and so analysts and regular people and people in their 401ks or whatever who are like holding this because you know it's still safe we're still paying it off but it's not the investment that it has been.

37:24Emily Jashinsky:Well, and interestingly, now I'm seeing some people on the right point to the debt to wealth ratio, which it's true. The United States wealth actually still does dwarf the debt, but it's somewhat amusing to hear that from the debt hawks who have been pushing for austerity for the last 10 to 15 years. And the wealth, you know, it's a funny comparison because the wealthy hold most of the debt. so that's a funny well but also U.S. assets like government assets land those sorts of things yeah but they hold the treasuries themselves too amazing yeah amazing let's get to this wild report out of Haratz a true bombshell about what the Israeli government and the American government knew out of October 7th this episode sponsored by Headshop if your piece is killing the vibe HeadShop has the upgrade your session deserves.

38:18From sleek bongs and dab rigs to grinders, papers, and vaporizers, HeadShop has the gear to make every session feel better, all in one place with fast shipping that makes upgrading easy. Go to HeadShop.com. Spend$100 or more for free shipping and get the setup you'll actually be proud to put on the table. At HeadShop.com, your setup stops looking basic and starts looking like yours. Head shop. H-E-A-D-S-H-O-P dot com. The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast. The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football. Williams, drifting, sprinting for space, in all kinds of trouble, put it up for next.

39:03He is up. He got it! For the touchdown! They've done it again! We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks, and more. We fly around every single place. We dominate every single place. Want to hear from the league's top stars ahead of the biggest matchups? We've got you covered. They're a really good football team. We've got to have all hands on deck. Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league. Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

39:44This is Jay Valentine. I've spent my career on the executive side of this industry, multi-platinum songs, building artists, and building business. And alongside my brother Tank, the superstar R &B singer, songwriter, and producer, we've created something special, the R &B Money Podcast. This is not just a podcast. It's a safe space where artists, executives, and fans of R &B music come to reminisce, pull back the curtain, and tell the stories that shaped this culture, the real history behind the hits. That was hood famous. Yeah.

40:13Emily Jashinsky:And then Real Love came out and it blew up. We lived in a project. Yeah, and they're seeing all the success. They're hearing the music and we had nothing. We're covering the entire spectrum from Smokey Robinson, Alicia Keys, B2K, Mary J. Blige, legends, current stars and everyone who's contributed to the sound of R &B. You come out the gate with a hit. And then knock Michael Jackson out of number one. Come on, man. I was like, hold on. I'm not going to MJ out of the number one spot. If you're a super dedicated R &B fan who wants the real discovery, the real stories, this is your podcast. This is the R &B Money Podcast.

40:48Listen to R &B Money from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bombshell new reporting from Israel's largest paper, Haaretz. We can put this element up on the screen. This comes from a new book out by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Uvall. Now, the UAE is out with a statement yesterday effectively confirming the bulk of the reporting that we're going to go through that is included in this excerpt in the paper. So bear that in mind. Netanyahu has himself denied it, but the reporting includes so many firsthand participants in the activity that combined with the UAE statement makes it very hard to give any credit to the idea that this is somehow fabricated or made up.

41:50So with that being said, let's roll through some of the revelations here and put up C1B here. So I'll just read from this. So in September 2023, just before the die was cast, Yahya Senwar arranged a private meeting with Fatah official Kolize. So Kolize is sort of like a deep throat name that they're giving to a source of theirs.

42:18Emily Jashinsky:Who was a go-between. Yes, this is a go-between. This is basically an associate of Sinwar's. Quote, tell the Israelis that if they don't make progress, I'm preparing a huge surprise for them. Here, he dropped a keyword for the first time, one that should have triggered red flags. Quote, tell them to expect a zilzal, an earthquake. Kolais left the conversation shaken. He decided to consult a close friend, the same Palestinian who had emigrated from Gaza to Abu Dhabi and served as a close advisor to Mohammed bin Zayed, who was basically the ruler of the UAE. And so the reporters also spoke with this other Palestinian who talked to MBZ.

43:02So what is he talking about? Tell the Israelis that if they don't make progress, I'm preparing a huge surprise for them. starting in early 2023, according to this reporting, and we also know some of this has made it into the public as well. Sinwar and Netanyahu were engaged in negotiations about a long-term truce and what the contours of that would look like. Sinwar wanted some people released from Israeli detention, started with 500. By the time they were near agreement, it was down to, I think, 30 and 20 people with life sentences. He wanted kind of these free trade zones around Gaza. Opportunity zones, basically, so that there could be investment and jobs for Palestinians in Gaza.

43:58And he wanted a lifting of the restrictions so that materials and food could get it. Like, you know, we've talked about this, but they were banning things like Oreos. Right. He's like, just let us...

44:11Emily Jashinsky:Under the guise that they could be used to make... That sugar could be refined to make some type of explosive or something. And so it goes into Sinwar's kind of philosophy, which was twofold, that he was pursuing two things at once. one he was investing heavily in the tunnel infrastructure and in the military preparedness to make them a formidable adversary of of Israel two he kept telling all of his lieutenants and as many people as would listen hey every time we have been entered into conflict with Israel we may have emerged with some moral victories, but we have been defeated militarily every single time.

45:01It's catastrophic for us, whether it's 2014, whether it's 2021, 2009, the number of casualties, civilian and military on the Palestinian side are always absolutely paled in comparison.

45:15Emily Jashinsky:So Senwar post-Abraham Accords, genuinely willing to cut a deal, is your point? So he was saying, like, look, if we can get a deal, that's better than going back to war, because let's be honest, no matter how well prepared we are, we're going to lose this war. Like that was his analysis. Which, by the way, if the Trump administration or I'm sorry, it would have been the Biden administration. But if the Biden administration at the time was aware of that and they were talking about building on Trump's Abraham Accords, that would be a W that they threw away. Yeah. And McGurk himself was this is his entire thing.

45:50And so they, according to this reporting, they get, they basically come to a deal. Like they have, the deal is in place. And Netanyahu just continues refusing to just sign it. To take it to his coalition and say, this is what we're doing. This is, at the time, Netanyahu is fighting with the judiciary because he's trying to, you know, he's got this corruption. case going on. He's trying to basically take over the judiciary. There's protests throughout. There's protests going on throughout Israel. Settler violence is ramping up in the West Bank. And also in East Jerusalem, they're trying to evict a whole bunch of Palestinians, which leads to the 2021 war.

46:44So there's a lot of chaos going on that Netanyahu is fueling all of it. And he just is refusing to just finalize the thing. And so Sinoir sends this message. Like, if you don't, like, look, we've been doing this for a year. We have a deal on the table. If you don't do it, quote, I have a surprise for you. And he says, tell the Israelis. So his aide talks to his friend, who he knows is right-hand man of MBZ. MBZ, interestingly, hears this information. He's like, are you sure? Right. According to this report. Right, right. Right. And he says, and UAE is not denying this at all and confirmed it in general terms.

47:33Emily Jashinsky:The sourcing is apparently excellent for this book as well. It's really impressive. It's multiple sources. It's really impressive. And so MBZ says to him, go back to him because I don't want to go to Israel and tell them that Sinwar is preparing to go to war with them. Right. If that's not 100 % true, because if I do that, Israel might launch a preemptive attack and that will disrupt the balance. And then I'm responding. The UAE, they are good to launch their own wars in Yemen or Sudan. Sudan, yeah. But they prefer stability. That's better for business. So the guy goes back to Sinwar and this part's wild.

48:16So reading again,

48:46No, the mediator replied. Senwar took a deep breath and in a chillingly quiet voice told him, quote, convey a message to them that I am preparing the mother of all surprises, a terrifying operation, something extraordinary. Again, he rolled the word zilzal, earthquake on his tongue, quote, please convey to the Israelis what I am saying word for word, he demanded. So he goes back to MBZ. The guy called MBZ, and he's like, oh, okay. He's deadly serious. So the UAE tells Shinbed. They tell Mossad.

49:33Emily Jashinsky:Koleis was trusted by Shinbed, according to his report. And on September 15th, they convene a meeting about this, and they decide, not a big deal. Not really doing anything. I mean. MPZ hears that. He's like, are you serious? So then he calls. So then he calls Netanyahu directly. Right. Has a 45 minute talk directly with Netanyahu. When he realizes that they're not taking seriously what he's telling them. And again, the Israelis are denying this vehemently. But the nut graph in this entire long story is some 10 days before Hamas's October 7th attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was personally warned by the leader of the UAE that Hamas was planning a major offensive move against Israel, but did not update Israeli security leaders and did nothing with the information according to this report.

50:25Emily Jashinsky:Now, just to be clear about their sourcing, the book is called Kidnapped, 843 Days of Abandonment. It's based on interviews with dozens of sources, including senior officials in Israel and around the world. It said three senior foreign officials were updated on the contents of the 45-minute phone call at the end of September, and it cited a Palestinian advisor to Emirati President MBC, who immigrated from Gaza to the UAE and had direct knowledge of the conversation. So this is three senior officials as sources who are not just saying a phone call happened or a conversation happened. They're saying it was specifically a 45-minute phone call exactly at this time at the end of September.

51:04Emily Jashinsky:And they have a very detailed timeline going up to that point of October 7th about all of these contacts that were made. It is unfathomable that this is all fabricated. Right. And people are trying to put all this on Netanyahu. And obviously Netanyahu deserves an enormous amount of criticism for everything. We'll get into that in a moment. But the Shin Bet was told also. Right. The Shin Bet officials in this article are saying, we wish Netanyahu would have told us that MBZ called him because then we would have taken Cole Eyes' warnings more seriously. Sure. Which is, like, get out of here. Like, okay, yes, obviously Netanyahu should have relayed MBZ's information and we can talk about, speculate about why he didn't do it.

52:01But that does not mean that the rest of the security apparatus was not aware of these warnings. They were aware of the warnings. They also ignored them. More to the point, the Nova Rave. 200 plus young people killed, taken hostage from that rave. which was supposed to be somewhere else in the nowhere near gaza they very late in the process

52:33Emily Jashinsky:they move it right next to the gaza envelope about that it was supposed to end on friday october 6th as with all festivals everybody's having a good time they want to keep going And so they appeal to the IDF to let them go until Saturday, October 7th. The IDF allows that after having them overruling kind of local folks who are like, rave is not a good idea to have the rave here. They overruled them, allow them to have it right next to God's envelope. And then they let them extend it to October 7th. knowing that on September 15th they'd had this giant meeting about this warning. Netanyahu himself warned days later directly by MBZ.

53:22The Egyptian intelligence warned them that something huge was coming. The female IDF soldiers outside of Gaza were calling in saying there's something major happening. I even tweeted a reporter of ours who was in Gaza. I remember, I believe it was October 4th. People can look at, go find it on my Twitter timeline. He flagged a whole bunch of balloons that Hamas was releasing over the fence on October 4th. And I remember posting about that on Twitter. I said, this is really interesting. Surveillance. Yeah, what is going, what is this? Who knows what this is? Testing something? So even in Washington, D.C., I was noticing things.

54:10I don't know what it was. So with all of that happening, they approve the rave moving to the Gaza envelope. If I were a family member or a parent or a friend of one of those people, I mean, I'm livid about it. I didn't know anybody there. well I know people know people who are there to to have such a callous disregard for the lives of your own citizens and also people from other countries who were come who were coming to this rave uh knowing that these threats exist it I understand why people hearing this are like they sacrificed them.

55:06Emily Jashinsky:Right, disregard. I understand, I don't, I can't get my mind to that place because it's such an inconceivable thing. Right. But I understand why people are like, yeah, they didn't care. The NFL never stops and neither does its newest podcast. The NFL Report, hosted by me, Andrew Siciliano. It is your home for everything football. Williams, drifting, Sprint it for space In all kinds of trouble Put it up for next He is upstate He got it For the touchdown They've done it again We're tapping the biggest news stories Giving you expert analysis Fantasy previews Game picks and more We fly around every single place We dominate every single place Want to hear from the league's top stars Ahead of the biggest matchups We've got you covered They're a really good football team We've got to have all hands on deck Join me and an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league.

56:04Get new episodes of the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Jay Valentine. I've spent my career on the executive side of this industry, multi-platinum songs, building artists, and building business. And alongside my brother Tank, the superstar R &B singer, songwriter, and producer, we've created something special, the R &B Money Podcast. This is not just a podcast. It's a safe space where artists, executives, and fans of R &B music come to reminisce, pull back the curtain, and tell the stories that shaped this culture, the real history behind the hits.

56:43That was hood famous. Yeah. And then Real Love came out, and it blew up. We lived in a project. And they're seeing all the success. They're hearing the music, and we had nothing. We're covering the entire spectrum, from Smokey Robinson, Alicia Keys, B2K Mary J Blige legends current stars and everyone who's contributed to the sound of R &B you come out the gate with a hit and then knock Michael Jackson out of number one come on man I was like hold on I'm not gonna MJ out of the number one spot if you're a super dedicated R &B fan who wants the real discovery the real stories this is your podcast this is the R &B Money Podcast listen to R &B Money from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeart Radio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.

57:29Hi, it's Alec Baldwin. This season on my podcast, here's the thing I'm speaking with more artists, policymakers, and performers like actor Stephen Root. I think for me to be any good or for any character to be any good, you've got to put enough of yourself and your empathy for people in it. I'm a people watcher. You see that guy going down the swing and go, yeah, I can use that. Open Igloo co-founder Alia Mohammed.

57:53Emily Jashinsky:I love staying on top of what is going on in our city, what is going on in city politics, what is on renters' minds, and taking all of that knowledge to build a platform that hopefully is going to make New York City better in the long run. And actress and singer Melissa Errico. Partnership took on a whole other meaning when I started making my own work. It's like you with a great actress or actor. It was best to come out of your trailer full of life and just face another person who's full of life and don't talk. Listen to Here's the Thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

58:34Emily Jashinsky:I was going to say disregard might be too charitable a word, and we're going to get into that in just one moment. But I also wanted to spend some time, as you and I were discussing, about the United States and the revelations about the United States, in this. The reporters say the Emirati ruler would later recount the conversation he had with Netanyahu. And guess what? The warning he also relayed to CIA director William J. Burns. Ben Zayed shared with Burns the sense he tried to convey to Netanyahu that, quote, something there is about to explode and told him that the Israeli prime minister believed the volatile area was, in fact, the West Bank.

59:08Emily Jashinsky:So that's also part of this report. Netanyahu, just to get to how specific the report is about the contents of this conversation deflects when MBZ is telling him something's going to happen coming out of Gaza. He says, we're much more worried about the West Bank. We're not particularly concerned about Gaza. So apparently our CIA was warned directly by MBZ and Americans were among the people kidnapped and slaughtered on October 7th. Mm-hmm. Yes, indeed. And there was also the battle plan that Israel had gotten its hands on. It was called Jericho. A year earlier, they had obtained documents that laid out what the assault was going to look like, which military facilities would be targeted, how it would be done.

59:57And I think the number of hostages taken was exactly what they forecast. The precision of the plan and the actual execution of the attack are remarkable. The Israelis literally had the document. They had the entire thing. Then they start seeing everything line up and And not only do they do nothing, they move people, as Netanyahu said, move people from Gaza to the West Bank and move civilians with this party right next to Gaza. And having that civilian festival right there where people then get slaughtered. And then you have all of these images coming out of it of half-naked young people because it's a rave.

1:00:51That ends up shaping the tenor of the coverage. which then leads to this conversation about sexual violence. If you attack a rave in the morning, that's what you're going to find. And all of the evidence that we have is that the attackers, this is not to excuse attacking civilians or taking civilians hostage, were startled by the appearance of this rave, which you can understand because it's like they're rolling through the desert and all of a sudden there's hundreds of people dancing to music at 6 a.m.

1:01:27Emily Jashinsky:And it wouldn't surprise me if there were higher levels of Hamas that were fully aware of what was happening there. Certainly if maybe the balloons could see or something, but there was nothing in the plans that Israel captured. There was certainly nothing about systemic sexual assault. There was nothing in the plan. They have the entire plan. There's nothing in there saying we're going to use sexual assault to terrorize the public, which is the which is the claim. No evidence of that. And there's nothing about we're going to attack a rave and take civilians hostage from there. So then we get to the hostages, which is the other shocking revelation in this.

1:02:09So it's it's been known through reporting and drop site and elsewhere reported immediately. I mean, Dropside didn't exist yet, actually, until 2024, but the reporters associated with Dropside and others reported that immediately after the attacks, Hamas was trying to release significant numbers of civilian hostages. And to be precise, when Sinwar says civilians, he means people under 18 or 18 and under and 50 and up. And so while that's not everybody's definition of a civilian. Right. So he's saying if you're a 45-year-old man and you were a part of the security at the kibbutz, like you are a prisoner, not a hostage, and you're going to be traded.

1:03:03But so when Sinwar is referring to civilians throughout the rest of this conversation, understand what he means. People 50 and up and people 18 and under.

1:03:19So they wind up with a lot more, according to, you know, if you compare the plans to the execution, they wind up with a lot more, quote unquote, civilians, children and the elderly.

1:03:30Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, they went crazy. These kibbutzes at the festival, they went crazy. And also a number of other militias that were not Hamas participated and grabbed hostages. And also some, quote unquote, you know, Palestinian civilians grabbed hostages. Like it was just absolute bedlam. Animalistic behavior. The fence is down. People are, it's chaos. And so the emir of Qatar immediately tells Hamas, release the civilian hostages immediately, or I'm going to kick Hamas out of Doha. Like, this is outrageous. Hamas immediately responds, done. We don't like this is not because they were they understand that this there's propaganda and public relations where you can set aside all morality.

1:04:26We're not talking about who are good people who are bad people here. Just from a pure PR perspective, it looks terrible to be dragging women and their babies.

1:04:37Emily Jashinsky:Well, if they want to a deal, if they want a deal, it's wildly unhelpful to that goal. if they were still expecting that this would pressure Israel to cut this deal on prisoners and what were they saying, economic freedom zones. Yeah. You're not going to get it this way. Right. And so they say, yes, we will give all of the civilians back immediately and we want nothing in return. What we need is a mediator to set up the arrangement to hand them over. At this point, the bombs are everywhere. we know what happened when three israeli hostages did escape and were trying to make their way out of gaza they ran into israeli forces that killed them it it's just it's not safe people are like well why didn't they just release them it's not it's not exactly safe to take a mother and a child or something and on the evening october 7th to go no you need like you call the red cross and the Red Cross sends a van, picks them up and takes them out.

1:05:39And so Hamas was saying, send a mediator, we'll set up the process and we'll turn over all of these civilian hostages. And then after that, we will enter into negotiations where we exchange the military and security figures that we have for Palestinians who are in Israeli detention and will reach a deal at that point. The Israelis straight up refuse to even entertain this.

1:06:14Emily Jashinsky:According to this new report. According to this new reporting. So then the emir of Qatar, frustrated, he's stunned. He's talking to an Israeli who's a friend of his, and he's shocked. They don't even want to, they won't take their hostages back. So he calls Blinken. So we can read this. This is C1C. So Al Thani, this is Amir Kattar. Al Thani did not give up. He called U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Listen, he told him. There are hundreds of hostages in Gaza and among them, in my estimation, dozens of civilians. They need to be released now. I offered the Israelis to mediate a quick deal for their release, but they are not interested.

1:07:07Blinken informed Althani that he planned to fly to Israel within three days. Quote, let's wait, he reassured him. I will speak with Netanyahu personally. Althani pressed on. You know that time is an important factor. We need to act now. Blinken stopped him. Quote, right now, the situation is complex. X, Israel is still under attack and there's no one to talk to. We will wait three days. Not only were there Israelis in custody, in Hamas custody then, there were Americans too. Yeah, yep.

1:07:47Including some who were killed in captivity and who could have been released. Blinken is underestimated. Blinken, listen to what he said. He says, there's no one to talk to. Israel is still under attack and there's no one to talk to. That is, the idea that there's no one to talk to is only true if you don't recognize that there are humans on both sides of this conversation. There obviously are people to talk to. There are people who are like, we have these civilians. We want to release them for nothing immediately. and he says no. He didn't fly to Israel in three days. It took him six days, and then when he got there, Netanyahu still was not interested in this.

1:08:38He then goes to Doha. The Qataris pressure Blinken again, so then Blinken then says, okay, I'll reach out to Netanyahu, and then they very slowly enter into some agreement to start some sort of conversation. But at this point, Israel has now been bombing Gaza relentlessly. And

1:09:10their genocidal rhetoric is completely ramped up. I've seen people say, criticize people. I think it was like me. Was it? I forget who it was. Somebody, because by October 14th, Roz Siegel, I think it was, October 14th was like, this could be a genocide. The well-regarded genocide scholar, Jewish, American. He was basing that partly on all of the genocidal statements that were coming out of the Israeli government. We're going to cut off food. We're going to kill them all. We're going to, you know, destroy the entire place. William Burns, you mentioned him, the former CIA director. He sums it up brutally.

1:09:49in this article, he says, quote, the basic problem was that Hamas was looking for a permanent end to the conflict, as they called it. Netanyahu was only willing to consider a first phase deal, but claimed he had to constantly reserve the option to continue destroying Hamas later, as he defined it. And that for us was always the challenge. How do we square the circle and manage to bring everyone back? Which just flips everything on its head here. According to the CIA, Hamas wants a permanent end to this conflict. But Israel does not. Yep.

1:10:26Emily Jashinsky:I literally, as we were talking, just put in a comment request with the CIA about this because there were, it should boil people's blood. And given how many civilians were affected by this and given the specificity of this report about what was being conveyed behind the scenes, it's pretty clear. To your point, Ryan, even publicly available information, was starting to suggest that something was perhaps brewing, which means privately this is in line with what you would expect to have been happening behind the scenes. Now, it's really important, I think, for us to roll this Charlie Kirk clip with Patrick Bett David from October of 2023, because in the immediate aftermath of what happened on October 7th, questions were being raised.

1:11:14Emily Jashinsky:And this is, as elections are coming up, perhaps Netanyahu's biggest political liability, Likud's biggest political liability, is obviously this report rattling Israeli politics right now is rank incompetence at the very least. Yeah, October 27th. At the very least, what you see here is rank abject incompetence in the Netanyahu government at very best. But the other questions this raises go back to questions that were already being raised by people who were supportive of Israel, including Charlie Kirk, previously supportive of Netanyahu and Leclud in October. That's how obvious some of these questions have been for years.

1:11:52Emily Jashinsky:And now that we're coming up on the three year anniversary. And so just going to toss the clip and bear in mind, this is already October of 2023. So long before we know what's in this Haratz report. Here's Charlie with Patrick by David. If we go dark, I put all those things out there. Yeah. How did how did these guys not know this was taking place? So I've been to Israel many times. The whole country is a fortress. When I first heard this story, I still had the same gut instinct that I did initially. I find this very hard to believe. I've been to that Gaza border. You cannot go 10 feet without running into a 19 year old with an AR-15 or an automatic machine gun that is an IDF soldier, right?

1:12:32The whole country is surveilled. And so let me just kind of go through this. We don't talk about Israeli politics very often, and most Americans don't know this. The last nine months, Israel was on the brink of civil war. It's not an exaggeration. This judicial stuff, there were hundreds of thousands of Israelis taking to the streets because Bibi Netanyahu was basically redefining the Israeli constitution. That's not an exaggeration, right? He said the judicial branch has too much power. There were protests planned this week against Netanyahu, where they anticipated tens of thousands of people to take to the streets.

1:13:03That's all gone, Patrick. Netanyahu now has an emergency government and a mandate to lead. I'm not willing to say, to go so far that saying that Netanyahu knew or there was intelligence here. But I think some questions need to be asked. Was there a stand down order? Was there a stand down order? Six hours? I don't believe it. Israel's the size of New Jersey. When I took a helicopter ride from Jerusalem to the Gaza border, it's 45 minutes, six hours. They're live streaming the killing of Jews. Was that somebody in the government say, stand down. That is a legitimate non-conspiracy question. The whole country is the IDF.

1:13:44The whole country is. And you're trying to tell me that they're going to concerts and kibbutzes and schools and by reports, six hours. Let's say it's three hours.

1:13:54Emily Jashinsky:October of 2023. Now, combine that. Charlie said at the time, not ready to say there was a stand down order. But Ryan, those questions have been floating since the time. It was unfathomable on October 7th that October 7th had occurred. So with all of these revelations, it raises a very, very serious question about whether Netanyahu allowed, intentionally allowed this to happen. And so the response from the Israelis, and it's included, well, the serious response from the Israelis, not the just made up Netanyahu, none of this is true response, is included. And I can read one more passage. So this is a reference to Dalan in here.

1:14:36Mohammed Dilan is Palestinian, who was a fierce rival of Sinwar's, who Sinwar brought in because of his contacts with the Egyptians and the Israelis to try to reach this negotiation that got to the finish line, but Netanyahu couldn't bring it over the top. So after October 7th, Sinwar, through his right-hand man, reaches out to Dilan to also convey to him, to the Israelis, that they're willing to give back all of these civilian hostages because they're trying to reach out every angle, every way that they can. Because it's probably confusing to them. Like, wait a minute. How do they not want back their own citizens that we don't want anything for?

1:15:21And so the Haaretz reporters write, Mohammed Dalan activated his contacts with the Shin Bet and conveyed the information to them. According to Masharawi, quote, The unofficial response Dalan received from them was, Netanyahu doesn't want to talk about anything. He only wants war and the elimination of Hamas. The Israelis' perception was, first, we eliminate Hamas, and then we'll retrieve the hostages by force. a senior defense official Israeli, a senior defense official admits that at least some of the proposals for the release of civilian hostages reached the Mossad the Shin Bet and the Prime Minister so confirming that this is a senior Israeli official confirming all of this reporting to her rights that yes the Hamas pledge to release hostages did get back to them but according to him even if they were concrete the military establishment which needed 24 hours to gain control of the situation and even more so the stunned political leadership were unable to discuss the matter in the first few days.

1:16:28So they are appealing to fear and incompetence as their excuse. So whether you want to believe that or not is up to you.

1:16:41Emily Jashinsky:it's really hard to believe that's mere incompetence when you have this record um the other thing a less devious but still evil analysis would be netanyahu saw october 7th as an existential threat to his political career which could lead him to also then end up in prison and if he would have cut a deal with sinwar where he gets back those hostages and then strikes a deal and 1 ,200 Israelis have been killed and that's the end of it effectively, he would assume politically that's it for him. What he needed was what he did, which was three years of genocide and whipping up the country into this genocidal fever so that there can never be a reckoning with his failures leading up to October 7th.

1:17:41And the way you do that is by October 7th, never ends. It just goes on forever. And so you can imagine from his perspective, and also it serves, of course, to then destroy Gaza and ethnically cleanse the population. But think about where Israel would be today. but you know Netanyahu's probably right that politically speaking it would have been the end to him if he reaches if he accepts the return of these hostages and then he strikes some deal with Hamas but think about where Israel would be compared to where it is now yes congratulations to them they killed at least 70 ,000 people, 20 ,000 children something like 3 to 5 children every single day have limbs amputated.

1:18:38I guess they can be proud of that. They have absolutely leveled and destroyed Gaza. Rafa no longer exists. Everyone inside Gaza is suffering. And there is a path toward ethnic cleansing and the complete annexation of Gaza and then of the West Bank. That path is before them. Whether they'll be able to pull it off, it's going to require an awful lot of more violence and destruction, but maybe they can do it. But that's where they are now. If they had reached a deal, Hamas was being globally vilified for the attack.

1:19:26You enter into this agreement, well, A, they could have taken the deal in September and avoided this entire thing. They would not be facing, do we have this next element? They would not be facing what they're facing from Europe at the moment. You can put up C4. The UK and a whole bunch of other European countries are banning trade with settlements with the United Kingdom citing ethnic cleansing. Now there's some hypocrisy going on and there's some double dealing And certainly the Israelis are going to be able to continue keeping up some trade. But they are facing global isolation and economic contraction.

1:20:13The civil war that was that Charlie Kirk referred to there. That was going on October 6th is still happening.

1:20:21Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. Country still ripped apart. Yeah. To me, they would be on a path to actual sovereign stability and coexistence with Palestinians.

1:20:35You just have to assume that they just did not want that.

1:20:39Emily Jashinsky:Where else can you go with it? And by the way, the situation in the West Bank is getting so bad that even Mike Huckabee is now conceding reluctantly. there's violence coming from settlers. Let's roll C3. We heard about the challenges that they face living in their own homes, on their own property, some of the intimidation that is being carried out by people that I have characterized as being terrorists. I know that's an uncomfortable word for some people. There are limitations in what a U.S. embassy can do in another country. We cannot investigate. We don't have that power or authority. We cannot adjudicate.

1:21:22We don't have that power or authority. But we can influence. And we can call attention. There may be a few hundred that are responsible, but that's a few hundred too many. And one of the messages that we have been sending and we will continue to send is that people in these communities have a right to live with a level of security and safety and that the government has a responsibility to make sure that that happens. All right.

1:21:57Emily Jashinsky:Well, that was Huckabee Saturday from the West Bank. Losing Huckabee. You're losing Huckabee. I mean, they're not losing Huckabee, but I guess they're at least allowing him to cede a millimeter in public on the West Bank.

1:22:28College football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the Solid Verbal College Football Show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week we preview the games that matter and the storylines that are going to ignite your group chat. And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again. Listen to the Solid Verbal College Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Did you think you were the only one? Like no matter what you did, it was never good enough for your mother.

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