In short
The history of consumer trust mechanisms, arguing that user reviews emerged to solve “market for lemons” information asymmetry—first via ancient customer complaints, then travel guidebooks, and finally quantified online feedback (eBay/AuctionWeb).
Guests
Jacob Goldstein and Robert Smith (hosts of Business History). No other guests appear; they interview each other using diary/roleplay excerpts.
Key claims
Reviews aggregate reliability signals; without them, buyers assume sellers are cheating (lemons equilibrium). Customer complaints were private (Mesopotamia), while reviews/guidebooks broadcast trust publicly. Online feedback scales trust for peer-to-peer commerce by making reputations visible.
Notable examples
3,775-year-old cuneiform “complaint about delivery of wrong grade of copper ingots” from Nani to merchant Ea-Nasir (found in Ur). George Washington’s diary criticizing taverns; Karl Baedeker’s travel guidebook with star ratings and anti-scam advice. AuctionWeb’s 1995 “Feedback Forum” (plus-one/minus-one) evolving into eBay; studies on Yelp’s impact on restaurants and eBay penny sales showing bad reviews reduce prices.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOThe Importance of User Reviews
0:00 to 0:29
Discussion on how user reviews influence trust in commerce today.
“Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause at checkout because you wonder if you trusted enough to hit buy now?”
The Importance of User Reviews
1:08 to 3:18
Discussion on how user reviews influence trust in commerce today.
“and how they impact who and what we decide to trust.”
Ancient Customer Complaints
3:18 to 4:00
Exploring the first known customer complaint from ancient Mesopotamia.
“If I were reviewing the review as a concept, as a theme in the history of business, I would give it five stars.”
The Clay Tablet Discovery
4:00 to 4:48
Detailing the discovery and significance of an ancient clay tablet.
“So we are going to start with the first customer complaint in the history of the world, or at least the first one that we know of.”
Nani's Complaint to Ea Natsir
4:48 to 7:16
Analyzing the complaint from a customer named Nani to a copper merchant.
“I saw this little tablet in the British Museum.”
The Market for Lemons Concept
7:16 to 8:10
Discussing the concept of asymmetric information in markets.
“One of the really interesting things about this story is this was not the only complaint excavated from Eonat Sear's house.”
Modern Resonance of Ancient Complaints
8:10 to 12:16
Connecting ancient customer complaints to modern consumer experiences.
“It was about used cars, which used to be called lemons if, you know, the wheel would fall off or the engine wouldn't work.”
Trust in Everyday Transactions
12:16 to 13:10
Examining how trust operates in daily transactions, like buying bread.
“This is the difference between a customer complaint and a customer review.”
Branding and Quality Assurance
13:10 to 14:00
Exploring the historical development of branding as a quality assurance system.
“He just wants to get high-quality ingots and have his messenger treated with respect.”
The Evolution of Trust in Commerce
14:00 to 16:12
Explore how brands originated in ancient times as a solution to the trust problem.
“More recently, we talked about A &P in our story about grocery stores and about how they developed store brands as a way of ensuring quality.”
Show all 21 chapters
Trust Issues in Travel: Washington's Experience
17:24 to 21:56
Discover George Washington's struggles with finding trustworthy accommodations during his travels.
“I would say the classic time to get fleeced in the modern world is when you are traveling.”
The Birth of Travel Guidebooks
21:56 to 28:00
Learn about the invention and impact of travel guidebooks in addressing traveler trust.
“And that is when the world finds its first solution to this problem, the guidebook, the travel guidebook.”
The Evolution of Guidebooks and Travel Trust
28:00 to 30:00
Explore how guidebooks evolved in the 20th century and shaped travelers' trust.
“At least it's sort of solving it because it's really just one guy's opinion.”
The Impact of the Internet on Commerce
30:00 to 31:09
Learn how the Internet began to disrupt traditional commerce models.
“And it's all about to change at the end of the 20th century because the Internet.”
The Birth of Online Marketplaces
31:09 to 34:57
Discover the origins of online auction sites and their marketplace concepts.
“the Web passed us back into that ancient world of Eonatzeer, where you didn't know who to trust.”
Trust Issues in Peer-to-Peer Commerce
34:57 to 39:25
Understand the trust challenges in peer-to-peer online transactions.
“You can just charge a fee on every sale for the service of running the marketplace.”
The Role of User Reviews in Modern Commerce
39:25 to 41:42
Examine how user reviews became essential for commerce and consumer trust.
“And unlike a guidebook, it doesn't cost anything to have the customers rate the products.”
User Reviews and Their Impact on Restaurants
41:42 to 42:03
Analyze how user reviews influence revenue for different types of restaurants.
“As I was putting this together, I did find some interesting literature, basically.”
The Impact of User Reviews on Restaurants
42:03 to 43:31
Learn how Yelp reviews affect revenue for restaurants differently.
“User reviews are a big deal for some restaurants, but not for others.”
Economic Insights from Collectible Pennies
43:31 to 44:51
Discover how seller reviews influence pricing in online auctions.
“Study number two, I'm calling it Nanny's Revenge.”
The Hosts’ Call for Reviews
44:51 to 45:51
Hosts discuss the importance of honest feedback from listeners.
“it would be much harder for Ian Natsir to unload his poor quality ingots.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause at checkout because you wonder if you trusted enough to hit buy now? Agentic Commerce is testing that moment more than ever. That's where PayPal comes in. With 25 years of checkouts, 400 million consumer accounts globally, and the benefit of fraud protection. So no matter where a purchase starts, it ends with trust. Built for payments, growth, and agentic. PayPal Open. Built for all business. Visit paypalopen.com.
0:36Pushkin. Too quick? No, it was perfect. Pushkit, stop. You got it. Hey, Malcolm Glaube here. This special episode of Business History is part of a larger series exploring trust. We're understanding where it comes from, the moment it's earned, and where we decide to place it. This episode is sponsored by PayPal Open, trusted by consumers built for all business. Wherever commerce moves next, you can rest assured PayPal Open has your back. And with that, Jacob and Robert are taking a deep dive into the history of consumer reviews and how they impact who and what we decide to trust. Five out of five stars from me.
1:30Robert, Robert, Robert. Oh, if you say it three times, it sounds weird. Robert Smith, I'm going to read you two user reviews. Okay. They're of the same thing, and I want you to tell me what they are reviews of. Got it. First one, five stars. Headline, best business history podcast. Wait, don't answer it yet. I know this one. Second review, four stars from username PitterPatter208. Headline, love the pod, just one thing. The review says, I'm a new listener and I love the podcast and the hosts. So far, so good. Please, please, please stop saying right after every other sentence. The show is business history, right?
2:14Yes, it is. That is right. And I am sorry, PitterPatter208. We're working on it. Honestly, we are working on it. And thank you, PitterPatter208, for rating and reviewing the show. Truly, truly. There is a reason that we and other podcasters are always asking listeners to rate and review the show. And it's not because we are needy and insecure. A little bit. We're not not needy and insecure. But also, more importantly, in the 21st century, user reviews are not just, as they say in business, a nice to have. They are a need to have, a must have. because in the peer-to-peer world that we live in today, reviews taken together aggregate information.
2:58They tell us what's reliable and what is not reliable. You know, when we're deciding whether to take an Uber or a Lyft or to rent a place on Airbnb or VRBO or buy something on Amazon or eBay, the review helps us solve the essential problem of commerce, the problem of trust. If I were reviewing the review as a concept, as a theme in the history of business, I would give it five stars. Ten of ten would review again. I'm Jacob Goldstein. I'm Robert Smith, and this is Business History, a show about the history of business. Today on the show, an ode, an encomium, an homage to the user review. The secret hero of 21st century business.
3:43Come, Robert, for the copper merchant who provided such bad customer service that we're still talking about it thousands of years later. And stay for George Washington's reviews of the taverns of early America. Before there was the user review, there was the customer complaint. So we are going to start with the first customer complaint in the history of the world, or at least the first one that we know of. It is roughly 3 ,775 years old. Which is amazing. Coins themselves are what, 3 ,000 years old? They're about 2 ,600 years old. So 1 ,000 years before coins, people are complaining. This complaint we know about because it was carved in cuneiform into a clay tablet.
4:33I mean, I say clay tablet because people always say clay tablet. But as I was studying this one, I realized it's only like five inches by two inches, quite small. So it's not the Ten Commandments. It's not the Ten Commandments. It's more like a clay postcard. And it was, in fact, used as a postcard to send a message. I saw this little tablet in the British Museum. It's not even featured prominently. It's down a little bit on the shelf. And the label is amazingly understated. The label on this tablet says, complaint about delivery of the wrong grade of copper. It's not wrong. It's not wrong. But it undersells it.
5:08I think it undersells it. The delight of it. So this tablet-slash-postcard was discovered in modern-day Iraq in what was Mesopotamia 3 ,700 years ago. And it was found in what seems to have been the house of a merchant named Ea Nazir in the city of Ur. And we know he was a copper merchant, and we think it was his house because all these clay postcards addressed to him were excavated from this house. He was a hoarder. He kept them all. Apparently, apparently. And so the complaint we're talking about is one of these postcards from a customer named Nani. And Nani trusted Eonatzeer to supply the copper as promised.
5:50And then Nani sent a messenger to pick up the copper. But the deal did not go down the way it was supposed to go down. And so Nani sent this clay complaint to Eonatzeer. Robert, give us a hit. I'm so excited for this. You did not do what you promised me. You put ingots, which were not good, before my messenger and said, if you want to take them, take them. If you do not want to take them, go away. What do you take me for that you treat somebody like me with such contempt? What do you take me for? Who do you think I am? None is not done. None is not done. It's a tiny little postcard, but he seems to fit a lot of cuneiform on there.
6:31He's really working the clay on this one with anger. Next move, ask for a refund. Go ahead. I have sent as messengers gentlemen like ourselves to collect the bag with my money deposited with you. But you have treated me with contempt by sending them back to me empty-handed several times. And that through enemy territory. Yeah, bad news for Nani. The money-back guarantee is not going to be invented for more than 3 ,000 years. Anyway, give us the conclusion of this, the oldest complaint that we know of in history. I shall from now on select and take the ingots individually in my own yard, and I shall exercise against you my right of rejection because you have treated me with contempt.
7:16One of the really interesting things about this story is this was not the only complaint excavated from Eonat Sear's house. There's this whole trove. Some reason you got to call it a trove. Trove of tablets. Trove of tablets. tablets. There's a letter from one of his partners trying to get him to just like be decent to customers. Basically starts, come on, man, act in such a way that Eden Sin will not become angry. Come on, man. There's another one from a disgruntled customer that really speaks to me. I could do this all day. It sums up a lot in just a few words. So it's customer and he writes to E.N.
7:52Atzer. Do you not know how tired I am? Do you not know how tired I am? This is the cry from the heart of everyone who will get stuck in a customer service doom loop for the next 3 ,700 years. There is a bigger idea here. The economist George Akilov wrote about it in this famous paper called The Market for Lemons. It was not about fruit. It was about used cars, which used to be called lemons if, you know, the wheel would fall off or the engine wouldn't work. And the paper basically won them a Nobel Prize. and what it's about is we think about markets as working well in our economy, which they do, but they only work well if everybody knows the same thing.
8:39This paper was about asymmetric information. When one person knows more than the other person, then it makes it hard for a market to truly work efficiently. And oftentimes the seller knows more than the buyer. Like in a used car, you don't know if it's been in a wreck or copper ingots. You don't know the quality of ingots because you have to go through enemy territory just to look at them. And Akilov makes a particular prediction. If you are buying a used car, you will rationally assume that it's a lemon. You will offer less money than you otherwise would have because you don't know if you're going to have to fix it.
9:13And this ends up being bad for everyone. It's bad for me because I don't know the car I'm going to get, but it's bad for someone who's selling a good car, who wants to sell a good car at a fair price, and everyone just assumes it's a lemon, assumes it's bad. And the market breaks down a little bit. It's not as efficient as it could be. It's painful. It's painful for all of us to live in this world where we don't know what's good, we assume it's bad, we think we're going to get cheated. And I feel like that's part of the reason the A.I. Natsir, you know, 3 ,700-year-old customer complaint is so delightful, frankly, so resonant.
9:50There is this incredible sort of modern life that this ancient tablet postcard, this first customer complaint has had. And as far as I can tell, it started in 2015 when somebody took a picture of this tablet in the British Museum, the same thing you saw, and they posted it on Reddit with the caption 1750 BC problems. And even today, I was looking as I was putting together this story, there is this subreddit that is still quite active. People post to it all the time. devoted entirely to A.N. Natsir and his poor quality ingots. Just in the last month or so, a guy posted a picture of himself in the British Museum standing in front of the case where the tablet's supposed to be, but there's a sign that says the tablet is out on loan, which is kind of perfect, right?
10:42Like, now you can complain about the complaint being not there. There's something great about it. And anyway, the guy in the picture is making a thumbs-down sign, Huge smile on his face, clearly very pleased with the whole situation. And he's wearing a T-shirt that says, Aya Nutsir's fine quality copper ingots, established 1750 B.C. So I am a member of this subreddit and have been since long before we started this show. And I don't know why it's so delightful. It is fun to imagine Aya Nutsir as a cartoon villain swimming in a bathtub full of complaints like Scrooge McDuck swims in gold coins. Just delighting reading all of the messages from the customers he screwed over.
11:33There is a simple problem that is revealed by this story, and it's a problem that we are going to spend the rest of the show talking about how people have tried to solve. When you buy something, for example, some copper ingots, how do you know if you're buying from a merchant who's going to give you what you need or from somebody who's going to provide you with poor quality ingots? Is the person going to be nice to you, or are they going to send your messenger back empty-handed through enemy territory? And the problem for buyers in Mesopotamia was the customer complaints were going only to Eonatzeer.
12:12So Eonatzeer knew his customers were not happy. And he was hoarding them. I mean, if they had somehow been posted on a wall or something. Yes, yes. This is the difference between a customer complaint and a customer review. The review is out there for everybody to see. And without reviews, other potential customers don't know what they are getting into. And of course, of course, interestingly, but of course, the other potential customers knew that they didn't know. They were operating in this world that was a low trust world. It was a low trust equilibrium. And so in this kind of world where you know that you don't know, you have to spend a lot of energy trying to figure out if the person you're doing business with is going to do what they say.
12:59And this is not an ideal world. Nani just wants to make his copper whatever, bracelets. He doesn't have to deal with this stuff. He just wants to buy the copper. He's got the money. He wants to spend the money. He just wants to get high-quality ingots and have his messenger treated with respect. Now, it is worth noting that most business for all of history is not this kind of long distance, high value, maybe one off exchange. Mostly what people buy is bread from the bakery down the street. The kind of thing that you buy every day, every week, again and again. And this is quite a different kind of transaction.
13:40You know, if you buy a stale loaf of bread, you're not going to go back to that baker again and you're going to tell everyone in the village. You're going to go to a different baker. Yeah, it's a repeated game. It is, in fact, not in the narrow self-interest of the baker to give you old bread because it's bad for business. When you look more broadly at the history of the ancient world, you do also see systems start to develop over long-distance commerce, over commerce that is not necessarily a repeated game. More recently, we talked about A &P in our story about grocery stores and about how they developed store brands as a way of ensuring quality.
14:20They are one of the early modern examples of store brands. But brands themselves go back a very long way. Not as far as we know to Ea Natsir, but you can find something brand-like in the Roman Empire. In the Roman Empire, you see amphora. You know amphora, those clay vessels? You see amphora with writing on them. And the writing doesn't just say what's inside. It says where the product comes from. There's one example from around 70 A.D. that I particularly like. It says on the side, Lucius Tetius Africanus. That's the name of the guy who distributed it. Finest fish sauce from Antipolis. Finest.
15:06Antipolis. I think that's how you say it. I don't know. Is Antibes today in the south of France. And this vessel was actually excavated in London. So hundreds of miles away. So it was fancy imported fish sauce. The finest. Wait, that's what it says on the label. We don't know what was inside, but yes, yes, it says it's the finest. And presumably you get your Lucius Tetius Africanus fish sauce, and if you like it, you keep buying it. It's a brand. You know it's the finest, or at least you know you like it. So this is a version of people figuring out ways to solve the trust problem. But again, fish sauce is something maybe you buy every week or every month.
15:51It is still a repeated game. There is one aspect of commerce where this trust problem proves particularly hard to solve because it is kind of inherently a one-time game or tends more to be a one-time game. And as the world becomes more globalized, it becomes more of an acute problem. After the break, we're going to talk about how the user review was invented to solve the trust problem in travel.
16:31Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause right before you hit buy now? that tiny hesitation, the one where you wonder if it's trustworthy, can make or break the sale. Now, with AI changing the way we discover and compare things, that split-second trust question matters more than ever. That's where PayPal comes in. For more than 25 years, PayPal has been a leader in online payments. And now they're at the forefront of agentic commerce, making it work for businesses, letting them maintain control of their brand and their customer relationships. So even as the way we shop changes, the moment that matters most still feels familiar and deeply dependable.
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17:33I would say the classic time to get fleeced in the modern world is when you are traveling. Whole family gets off a plane. You haven't slept in 24 hours. And somebody's like, we got a good restaurant here. Yes, it is a problem. And it has been a problem forever. And so we're going to jump forward thousands of years and we're going to do two things. First, we're going to talk about how profound the problem of trust was for travelers, even if you were the president of the United States of America. And then we'll talk about how the power of the user review solved the problem or at least helped to solve the problem.
18:13Let's do it. The president we're going to talk about is not just any president. It's the big man, the general, the pride of Mount Vernon, number one. George Washington. He's going to do something nobody would have wanted to do if they didn't kind of have to, which was go on a tour of all 13 states of America. Hard to do at first. In the late 1700s. And because he was a president and not a king, a man of the people, he decided that he was not going to stay in the fancy estates of his rich friends. He was going to stay where the people stay, in public houses. And public houses were more or less what they sound like.
18:49There were houses that were open to the public. This is, in fact, part of the regulatory regime at the time. The deal was, if you wanted to sell alcohol to the public, essentially a bar, you had to pay a fee to the government and get a license and rent out rooms in your house. So that no one's trying to ride their horse home drunk. And as you probably know, this is where pub comes from. Pub as in public. As George Washington found out on his tour of America, a lot of public houses were terrible places to stay. And we know this because he kept a diary, hopefully. At one point in his travels, he was in North Carolina.
19:27It was raining. He wanted to find a place to sleep. So he went and looked in at the public house. Robert Smith, give us the report from his diary. Ooh, I got to do George Washington now. No rooms or beds which appeared tolerable and everything else having a dirty appearance, I was compelled to keep on. Okay, but how about Georgia? How was Georgia? The accommodations on the whole road to Savannah we found extremely indifferent, the houses being small and badly provided either for man or horse. Not good enough for my horse. Not even a horse should sleep here. It could have been worse. It could have been worse.
20:08There is this great story from the Revolution, from during the time of the Revolutionary War, when John Adams and Ben Franklin stayed in a public house where they had to share a bed, which was apparently common, normal at the time. Sometimes you would check in, get in bed, fall asleep, and then a few hours later, some stranger would just climb into bed with you. Apparently, Adams and Franklin were laying there in their bed arguing over whether it was healthier to sleep with the window open or closed. and kind of perfectly, Franklin starts lecturing Adams about why open is better. He loves the fresh air.
20:46Loves the fresh air. And Adams just falls asleep with Franklin talking, which you could imagine Franklin would never stop talking. I love Ben Franklin. Worst roommate ever. The whole thing about staying in a public house was essentially a shot in the dark. You roll into a strange town. You try and figure out if there is a public house, where there is a public house. No idea if it's going to be a nice place for man or horse or not, or if you can trust the proprietor or if he's going to rip you off. You just don't know. We should say, in defense of American hospitality circa 1790, George Washington did find some nice places on his trip.
21:27He was apparently so impressed with Mr. Brown's fine tavern in New Haven that he paid for the mayor, the governor, and the lieutenant governor all to join him there for dinner. But he can't tell the world. He can't leave five stars on Mr. Brown's website. Sure, George Washington slept here. But did he like it? This is the problem. This is the problem. It applies to good businesses as well as bad. Customers know, but they can't tell the world. And over time, travel expands. In the 1800s, railroads come along and travel starts to become open to more of the public. And that is when the world finds its first solution to this problem, the guidebook, the travel guidebook.
22:07the thing you can buy and carry along with you on your travels, which I would argue is the first user review. This is the first time someone has broadcast to the world, here's what I think about places good and bad. Here's my advice. And this is one of those simultaneous invention stories that we've talked about, the kind of thing where lots of people have the same idea around the same time. You see guidebooks in the first half of the 1800s popping up in the U.S., in the U.K. and Europe. But there is one guy who does it best, becomes the biggest and most famous guidebook writer. His name is Karl Baedeker.
22:46German. German. His family was in the publishing business, and they ran a bookstore. And he actually saw British tourists coming into the bookstore with their guidebooks. A lot of them were basically just lists, you know. Here's 100 hotels. Which, you know, that's better than nothing. But Baedeker decides he's going to get into the guidebook game, and he personally is going to go everywhere. He's going to walk every path, check out every hotel, so that when you are reading a Baedeker guidebook, what you are reading is what he saw. And I admire his commitment to his bit. In one of his early guidebooks, he describes a trip between two towns, and what he says is, the writer of these lines made the trip at night and regrets that he can report nothing about it.
23:36Honest. Honest. And like when somebody tells me they don't know, I trust them more. Because then when they're telling me what they do know, I'm like, oh, well, I presume they do know. Bedeker starts writing these guidebooks. They're very popular. They become a multi-generational thing where his sons get into the business. And they really are user reviews. They really are telling you what they liked and also what they did not like. Give us a little hit of the Baedeker description of Marseille in the south of France. The atmosphere of the town in summer is hot and oppressive. You got that right.
24:09Those, therefore, who contemplate a sojourn of several days during the warm season are recommended to select the Hotel des Catalans. And there's a little star next to it. In the immediate vicinity of the sea bass, the situation is delightful and the house spacious and comfortable. That little asterisk that you mentioned next to the hotel's name is, in fact, Baedeker's official recommendation. We're not in the one-star, two-star, four-star, six-star, whatever world yet. Star inflation. Star inflation has not yet taken off. One star is good. On very rare occasions, he'll do two stars, typically for a site and not a hotel.
24:47Like the Parthenon, yes. The absolute must-see. Well, here, let's do one. And so the collection of ancient frescoes in the Museo Nazionale in Naples gets two stars. These works are almost the only specimens of ancient painting which have come down to us and are therefore of extreme value. Many of them are beautifully conceived and executed with an easy, masterly touch. Compelling. Two stars. Two stars. It's Naples. So these are from, you know, Pompeii and Herculaneum. I'm literally going. I have not. I have wanted to go to that. Now I want to go, yeah. So Baedeker tells you what's great, what, you know, the must-sees.
25:25But honestly, and this goes back to Annette's here, my favorite parts, and it seems like Baedeker's favorite part, is when they are advising travelers what not to do, how not to get ripped off. Like, there's this one detail from the Entryano Hotel in Cusie in Tuscany. The landlord offers Etruscan relics for sale at exorbitant prices. Travelers are cautioned against making purchases of this description. where the manufacture of spurious antiquities is greatly in vogue. Don't buy them. Ebedeker also sort of goes beyond reviews of specific places to kind of take the vulnerable traveler under his wing, you know, to protect you from the scoundrels out on the road.
26:08Like, for example, always get a written itemized bill. A waiter's arithmetic is faulty, and the faults are seldom found to be in the favor of the traveler. Funny how that works. Yeah, weird. Another one for when you're checking out of the hotel. A habit too often prevails of presenting the bill at the last moment when mistakes must be submitted to for want of time to investigate them. And then he says, if you're going to check out early in the morning, you will do well to ask for your bills on the previous evening. Good advice. The books become wildly popular. They're translated into French and into English.
26:44The word Baedeker becomes synonymous with travel guide for a while. And along with this popularity comes a really interesting shift in the power dynamic between buyers and sellers in the travel industry. And you can really see it in one story in particular. It happens when a hotel owner sues Baedeker because he doesn't like what the guidebook says about his hotel. And in fact, the owner wins. And in the next edition, Baedeker doesn't list the guy's hotel at all. He's like, you don't like it? Okay, I'll just take you out. Leave me alone. And not long after that, the guy's hotel goes out of business.
Read the full transcript
27:26Bad review in Baedeker is better than no review at all. This is this information asymmetry we talked about. Before guidebooks, in the dynamic between the hotel owner and the guest, the guy running the hotel, the public house, had more power in a way than the president of the United States. If you're a guest, you had to show up and take what you got. And now you had a little thing you could tuck in your pocket that gave you power. You could say, oh, there's another hotel down the street. If you're going to give me a bad deal, I'll just go stay at the next place. The guidebook is solving that asymmetric information problem, the market for lemons problem.
28:04At least it's sort of solving it because it's really just one guy's opinion. It's Baedeker's opinion or Baedeker's son's opinion. It's way more than nothing. But if Baedeker's style is not your style, if you happen to like different things than Baedeker, it's not as helpful. And this is kind of the next step in the story. As we get into the 20th century, there is this explosion of guidebooks for all different kinds of people. In the U.S., there is famously the Green Book, perhaps you saw the film, which was a guidebook for black people in America, which was important in the first part of the 20th century, a time when black people were not allowed to stay in many places, when it was unsafe for black people in many places.
28:46There were guidebooks for rich people, for college backpackers. I was a rough guide person myself. I was a Lonely Planet guy, but basically the same, narcissism of small differences. And of course, the other thing that flourished in the 20th century in travel was brands, Just like fish sauce in the Roman Empire, you saw in the 20th century hotel brands that promised you a similar experience wherever you stayed. You stay in a whatever, a Holiday Inn, a Marriott, whatever it is, in one city. It's going to be pretty similar to another city in another part of the world. And if you zoom out, we've been talking about travel, but if you zoom out beyond travel, I feel like by the late 20th century, certainly in the U.S., we were maybe at peak trust in commerce.
29:37There were a million brands you could choose from and know that you were going to basically get the same thing every time. It was reliable. And people didn't mind this. And in part, they liked it because if or when you wanted to be more adventurous, go to the weird little restaurant, take a wild trip. there were a million guidebooks exactly for you that could tell you everything you needed to know. It was a golden age. It was a golden age. And it's all about to change at the end of the 20th century because the Internet. Shaking my fist at you, Internet. After the break, we're going to talk about the Internet, the user review, and trust in commerce.
30:35Robert Smith, it's the late 20th century, the era of the World Wide Web. You remember when we surfed the World Wide Web? The dub dub dub? Of course. Somewhere right now, my teenage children are cringing, and they don't know why. They just feel some great disturbance in the forest every time I say surfing the World Wide Web. But that was what we did in the 1990s when the World Wide Web came along and changed commerce completely. And it's interesting in the context of this story because in some ways, the Web passed us back into that ancient world of Eonatzeer, where you didn't know who to trust.
31:21The World Wide Web is nothing if not a sea of strangers in hostile territory. But this time, this time, people are going to figure out how to do more than write strongly worded tablets to merchants. Do the story. It begins in the summer of 1995 when a computer programmer was having dinner with his fiancée. They had just moved from Boston to Silicon Valley. And a thing about moving is you have to solve a million little problems that you didn't even know were problems. They were just things that worked in your life before you moved, and now they don't work. And there is a story that they told later.
32:02And let me say clearly, I think this story was apocryphal. It is probably apocryphal, but it's a good apocryphal story, so we're going with it. The fiancé was telling the computer programmer about one of the little moving problems she was trying to solve. And that was she was into collecting Pez dispensers. Remember Pez dispensers? Pez dispensers are a cylinder of candy. The candies are little ingots, actually. Oh, they are ingots. People know what Pez dispensers are. And there's a head. And you lift the head and the candy comes up. So it comes out of the mouth. The fiance collected Pez dispensers.
32:35And in Boston, she had this group of other Pez dispenser collector friends. Pez heads. Trade with each other. But since she moved, she hadn't found her Pez people in California. You know where is a great place to find Pez dispenser collectors? The World Wide Web. You should surf that. But where would you go on this web? Well, there was nowhere to go yet in 1995. But it's the perfect place for aggregating people, ultimately. That is fundamentally what the web does. So the programmer hears this story. He realizes this, and he spends a weekend writing code for a website he calls AuctionWeb. because there's going to be auctions on the web.
33:20This is making me feel old, older than talking about Mesopotamia. Yeah, we weren't even children when this happened. And this programmer's core idea was he didn't want to buy anything or sell anything on the web. He just wanted to create a marketplace, a venue where buyers and sellers could meet, where anybody could auction anything off or anything legal, and anybody else could bid. This is, in fact, an ancient idea. There were the trade fairs in medieval Europe. Less important in the history of the world, but more important in my own life, was the Escondido swap meet. Oh, I love a swap meet. Where you could go as a kid.
34:00Big parking lot. You'd pay a couple bucks to go in, and it was just people would drive in there and sell stuff on a blanket next to their car. And they would sell things like one fork. Other people would look at the fork and be like, huh, how much for this fork? Not much. The key thing is not much for one fork. The other thing about the swap meet is it tended to be pretty generic stuff because the Escondido swap meet is people from Escondido, maybe a few from San Marcos, Valley Center. But it's people coming from a relatively small area, so it has to be stuff that appeals to everybody. There are not going to be many people at the Escondido swap meet who are into, say, collecting old Pez dispensers.
34:47But the World Wide Web was really different because everybody could trade with each other, could buy from and sell to each other. So if you could build a marketplace on the web, a web swap meet, it could be an incredible business. You can just charge a fee on every sale for the service of running the marketplace. And this is, in fact, going to become one of the central business moves of the 21st century. You don't want to sell stuff. You don't want to buy stuff. You don't want to ship stuff. You don't want to store stuff. You just want to build a marketplace. It'll come to be called peer-to-peer commerce because it's not some company selling stuff to people.
35:29It's just people selling stuff to other people. Seems like a sure thing. But there is a problem. thousands, hundreds of thousands of strangers just dealing with each other on your platform. You don't know who these people are. You don't know if they have ill intentions. You don't know if they're going to cheat your other customers. You could become, I think the technical term on the World Wide Web is a cesspool of bad commerce. It's a problem for buyers and for sellers. It's recreating the Ea Nutsir problem. It's the moment the Ea Nutsirs of the world have been waiting for, in fact. They've been hoarding their poor quality ingots for 3 ,700 years, just waiting to unload them on a worldwide web of chumps.
36:14And, of course, everybody knows this. It's back to that old market for lemons low trust equilibrium. In 1995, the web is new. Almost nobody has ever bought anything online. Oh, here's my credit card. Total stranger whom I can't even look in the eye. I don't know where you are, but sure, take my credit card. People didn't do it. People didn't do it because they didn't trust the Internet. They didn't trust the people on the Internet. They didn't know who to trust. And to solve this problem, the people at AuctionWeb had an idea. They called it the Feedback Forum, and they posted a letter on the site to explain it.
36:54They had to explain it. Love that. Use our Feedback Forum. Give praise where it is due. Make complaints where appropriate. Deal with others the way you would have them deal with you. Remember that you are usually dealing with individuals just like yourself, subject to mistakes, well-meaning, but wrong on occasion. That's just human. Oh, that's very thoughtful. Good faith. It's full of this idea of act in good faith, which is nice. And on top of that, maybe because this was a company built by engineers, they came up with a way to quantify this feedback. Users were allowed to give each other a rating of plus one for good or minus one for bad or neutral.
37:33And the site automatically summed up the ratings to create a score. And it put the score right next to the username. So now it's the answer. It's the answer. If a seller tries to unload poor quality ingots on you. You can do that once or twice. But, you know, 10 people and you've got a minus 10 rating. And this isn't perfect. People, you know, join up to inflate each other's reviews, for example. But overall, it works. And they add stars and percentages and details, all built on this foundational idea. Everybody can see what buyers and sellers think of each other. At some point, Auction Web changed its name to eBay.
38:17Perhaps you've heard of it. And it was clear pretty quickly that online auctions were a good idea. And other companies jumped in to compete. There was Auction Universe, On Sale Exchange. And there is this moment that's really interesting and telling when some of these other auction sites want to let users import their user reviews from eBay. And eBay says, you can't do that. The reviews, the aggregated reviews belong to us. They have to stay on eBay. They're valuable. They're valuable. They're part of what makes eBay work. They're not just some frilly thing on the side. They are an essential component of online commerce.
39:01And as everybody starts to go online, it becomes clear that you need user reviews for all kinds of peer-to-peer commerce, really. Because in the aggregate, reviews do the work that a brand does in traditional commerce. They tell you if the seller is reliable, if the seller can be trusted to send you what they say they're going to send you. And unlike a guidebook, it doesn't cost anything to have the customers rate the products. You don't have to send someone with a backpack climbing over hills and staying at all these hotels. Which means reviews can scale infinitely. You can have as many reviews for as many buyers and sellers as you want.
39:42We love scale. We love infinite. And so you see, as we get into the 21st century, this wave of peer-to-peer commerce and more potential trust problems. Not, you know, would you buy this Pez dispenser from a stranger, but would you ride in a stranger's car? Would you sleep in a stranger's spare bedroom? If you had asked me that 20, 30 years ago, it would seem insane that you would stay in a room in someone else's house. This is what venture capitalists said when, you know, when Airbnb went out and tried to raise money for this business. But kind of amazingly, reviews were able to solve the trust problem here as well.
40:22So now we live in this world where everybody reviews everybody. Not only do riders review drivers and guests review Airbnb hosts, but drivers review riders and Airbnb hosts review guests. We even let listeners to podcasts review podcasts. What? What? This is the moment, Robert, when our showrunner, Ryan Dilley, has told me we need to mention his 100 % positive rating on eBay where he buys vintage World War II gear. He has provided us reviews from sellers. It says, an excellent no-messing buyer. Yes. Also, prompt payment, astute customer. That he is. And of course, those positive reviews make it much easier for him the next time he wants to buy a Royal Air Force cap size large.
41:14Because every seller wants a no-messing buyer. Astute. I don't want to sound naive here that user reviews are the end of the road. Because I feel like these days when I read user reviews, especially on the big sites, I do worry a little bit that they've been paid for or that bots are doing this now or that AI is doing this now. We've reached the point of a little bit of doubt coming back in. That is fair. As I was putting this together, I did find some interesting literature, basically. There's like an academic literature of user reviews by this point. Economists love user reviews. And it was comforting to me.
41:55I want to talk about two in particular because they fit the themes of what we've been talking about on the show. Study number one could headline it. User reviews are a big deal for some restaurants, but not for others. This is a really interesting working paper that a Harvard Business School professor published a while back. The professor was able to get revenue figures from all the restaurants in Seattle. and he looked at what happened before and after Yelp came on the scene in Seattle. This is back in the aughts. And what he found was Yelp reviews mattered a lot for revenue for small restaurants, but they mattered not at all for chain restaurants.
42:38Which makes sense if you have a big brand, if you're entering a famous fast food restaurant. You're not checking, is it a 4.2 or a 4.3? You know what the French fries are going to taste like. That's the point of the brand. But for a small, you know, mom-and-pop restaurant that you've never heard of, reviews are a big deal. That's where they matter. One other macro finding in this paper that I found particularly interesting was the emergence of Yelp seemed to be good overall for non-chain restaurants because their overall share of restaurant revenue went up. or as the author put it, the increased information about independent restaurants leads to a higher expected utility conditional on going to an independent restaurant.
43:24Higher expected utility. What more could you want? Better. It means it's better, basically, in expectation. Okay, that's study number one. Study number two, I'm calling it Nanny's Revenge. Nanny, of course, was the dissatisfied customer of Eonatzeer. This is an elegant study where these economists looked at sales of old U.S. pennies on eBay, like collectible pennies. And the reason for focusing on collectible pennies is there is a book value for each one. You know what it sort of should cost. And they could control what the expected sales price, the book value would be, and see how the seller's reviews affected the price they actually got for the pennies that they sold.
44:10And what they found was good reviews, increases in the positive feedback rating, had no significant impact on the prices people were willing to pay. But bad reviews, negative feedback, did have an impact. When sellers got negative feedback, the prices that buyers were willing to pay for their pennies went down. This is telling us that user reviews are at least a partial solution to this market for lemons. Reviews may be flawed, but they do tell buyers who to trust and who not to trust, and eventually how much money they should offer in an auction site like this. Yes, it does seem like in this world of user reviews that we live in today, it would be much harder for Ian Natsir to unload his poor quality ingots.
45:03Ia Natsir would be cooked. Part of me wants to encourage people to leave a positive review for this show, but I guess it would be better if I said leave an accurate review of this show. And if you don't like the show, don't feel compelled to leave a review. You can send us an angry tablet in that case. Yes, if you don't like the show, please send us an angry tablet. We're at businesshistoryatpushkin.fm. If we have delivered you poor quality ingots, If we have sent your messenger away through enemy territory, please tell us. You can also tell us on X, classic place to send angry tablets. I'm Matt Jacob Goldstein.
45:41You're at Radio Smith on LinkedIn. We do love to hear from you. We do. And user reviews really do make a difference. Our show today was produced by Gabriel Hunter Chang. It was engineered by Sarah Bruguer. Our video editor is Matt Nielsen. Our showrunner and editor is Ryan Dilley, size large head. Writing and research for today's show was contributed by Ryan Dilley and Gabriel Hunter Chang. I'm Jacob Goldstein. I'm Robert Smith. Thanks for listening. Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause at checkout because you wonder if you trusted enough to hit buy now? Agentic Commerce is testing that moment more than ever.
46:24That's where PayPal comes in. With 25 years of checkouts, 400 million consumer accounts globally, and the benefit of fraud protection. So no matter where a purchase starts, it ends with trust. Built for payments, growth, and agentic. PayPal Open. Built for all business. Visit paypalopen.com.
From the publisher
When America’s first president set off to tour his new country, he had no idea where to stay. George Washington slept in some taverns he described as dirty and grim, but also stayed at some delightful inns. In the 1790s, there was no way for travellers to share tips on the nice places to sleep and those to avoid.
Fast forward to today and the rise of peer-to-peer services where we book a car ride, rent a vacation home or bid in an online auction, and the same trust problem occurs. How do we know we can rely on a vendor we’ve never met? And how can we praise good customer service with a glowing recommendation? That's why the user review was created.
Write to us at businesshistory@pushkin.fm
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