The Thursday Show: What will happen in 2025?

0:07This is Business of Home. I'm Dennis Scully and welcome to the Thursday show. This week we're not looking back on the biggest news in the home industry. Instead, we're taking a look at the year ahead. As always, I'm joined by Business of Homes Executive Editor, Fred Nicholaus. Hi, Fred. Hi, Dennis. How's it going? Great. How you doing? Happy New Year. Although that's a lie because we're recording this in 2024. But by the time our listeners hear this, it will be 2025. How are you spending the last dregs of this mushy year, Dennis. Bracing myself for the year ahead is what I'm doing, Fred. I too.

0:46I'm, I'm a listeners may know that I'm in the middle of a move and I have to say nothing fills me with more respect for the interior design profession than trying to set up a new apartment myself. Friends often ask me for advice. They're like, you write about interior design. You must be good at that. I'm like, no, I am not. I know about design distribution deals, actually putting it together an apartment. I am as the most clueless client our listeners have ever dealt with. So I'm in the middle of that chaos. Is your holiday shaping up nicely? I know you have some in-laws in town. In-laws in town, and we're going to have a full table, and it's going to be quite fun and festive.

1:21I'm really looking forward to it. All right. Well, you'll be looking backwards to it by the time our listeners hear. I know. I'm so confused about time and space and where we are right now. But it will all have happened by the time this comes out. I'm sure it was great. In the meantime, Fred, should we explain to people what we're doing on this show today? We just can't stop talking. And we thought, no, we thought it would be really fun to do a predictions episode where we look forward to 2025. But we actually have been doing a lot of talking and we thought it would be nice to tap the Thursday show brain trust to get some predictions from around the industry.

1:58So we've rounded up guests from the podcast this year to give their thoughts on what they think will happen in 2025, what they're going to be looking out for on their own businesses. And we got a real, you know, murderer's row of talent here. We've got Amber Lewis, who's going to offer some thoughts. Lee Mayer of Havenly, Alexa Hampton, Alex Shuford. There are some surprise guests. It's a really fun roster of people. So we've compiled them all and we're going to play their predictions shortly. I'm excited. I'm excited too. And I'm incredibly grateful to everyone that we reached out to who very sweetly said, sure, I'll send in a prediction for your show.

2:34Shall we get one last prediction from each of us before we go, Fred? We should. And I want to just say a special thank you to the person who recorded their prediction at Newark Airport. There was, you know, we have a little, you know, when they send in the audio file, Apple puts in the location of the recording. And I was like, oh, this person, this person really did us a favor here and snuck it in in between flights. But yes, let's sneak in one last prediction. uh i'm i'm gonna i'm gonna call brown cooked i think i think pantone calling mocha mousse the color of the year is a sign that brown is washed it's time to move on i think rh is gonna make their new big brand extension rh color i think designers have already known that it's it's time for color but i think that retailers and the broader design community is gonna get in on it so that's my that's my big prediction my second smaller nerdier predictions i think we're gonna hear from material bank in 2025 it's feel like they've been a little bit quiet over the past year.

3:27They've raised so much money, they got to spend it on something. So I think we're going to find out next year. I guess first, what do you think of my bold, bold predictions, Dennis? But what's your prediction for 2025? So unbelievably, and this was not in any way planned, Fred, absolutely one of my main predictions was in fact color. And I couldn't agree with you more. I think coming off of the conversations we had at the end of the year about colorful bathrooms, It was so clear to me that so many designers were dying to do more color. We always joke about ivory boucle or some of these neutrals just getting overthrown.

4:05And I think they really might this year. So I am very much in agreement with your bold prediction about color. I also agree with you about material bank. I think it's quite possible. I get the sense that something big is brewing over there. and I hope we'll be able to talk about it in the very near future. My other also nerdy prediction was actually related to, you can't get much nerdier than this, the 10-year yield. So I think the 10-year yield on the Treasury note is going to be something that we're going to be following much more closely than ever before because I think the Federal Reserve has indicated they're actually going to be lowering rates less in the coming year than we might have thought.

4:53And I actually think the bond market is going to play a much bigger role on what happens to mortgage rates and therefore housing. And I think it's going to be a very bumpy ride in 2025. And I see me referencing the 10-year yield a lot more in 2025. Well, that's a prediction we know will come true. I think you successfully captured the breadth of this show here from quiet luxury of the 10-year treasury yield as the third day show in a nutshell. Well, good predictions. Let's stop talking and let other people jump in with their own. Exactly. Let's let everyone that we asked very nicely to share their predictions, let's hear from them.

5:36And again, thank you to everyone who sent in their thoughts. Hi there, business of home. This is Alexa Hampton, and I am the principal designer at Mark Hampton LLC. My prediction for next year is that we will see performance fabrics become far more elaborate in their designs because let's face it, everybody wants performance fabrics inside their house as well as outside. Hi, my name is David Netto, and my company's called David Netto Design. I think that next year we're going to see more young people interested in history and doing sort of historically-based decorating with Gothic things in it and great antiques because all the young people I talk to are fascinated by Madeline Castang and Zeffirelli and the 19th century.

6:24And I think that's going to keep going because they're smart. Bye. Hey there, this is Amber Lewis and I'm the principal designer and founder of Amber Interior Design. Next year, I'm calling on the human race, yes, that's right, the entire human race, to revive the retail store and making a bold prediction that our world will start to see the tangible value in keeping all of our main street stores alive. Ecom, of course, has its place for sure, but I hope people remember the importance of touching, feeling, and experiencing products in real life. I am personally a shopaholic and quite frankly get off on a good afternoon outing or a reason to pop to the shops.

6:58Plus, there's nothing that helps me justify a purchase more than walking into a store, picking a gift with my hands and my eyes, or just sitting on a sofa to make sure it's cozy before I buy it. I just feel in a world that forces us to be tied to technology all the time. Imagine if we lost retail, it would actually be a tragedy. Where would we go? Anyway, let's support and get lost a little in a sweet boutique or two. And that is my hope for the coming year and the years to come. Also, this is a shameless plug for my new store opening in Montecito, California, January 2025. Okay. Love you, Dani.

7:32Bye. Hi, this is Kira Hartnett from 22 Wallpaper and Textiles. My hope for the new year is that we will all focus on authenticity. In the face of dupes and sameness and political extremism, I think that we will lean into being more and more ourselves, more authentic in our communications with our clients, our team members, and the colleagues within our industry. I'm excited to see how that will manifest visually in design projects and surface pattern design. Here's to 2025. Hello, this is Peter Dunham, interior and furnishings designer from Los Angeles in New York. My principal prediction of 2025 is that barring any other seismic shocks, the era of the deferred plan is over.

8:23People are either resigned to the higher interest rates and housing costs or simply can't wait to get on with their lives. In my little neighborhood alone, more listings came onto the market in the last quarter of 2024 than in the previous four years put together. And an increase in real estate transactions strongly predicts a dramatic upswing in the demand for home furnishings. And we're already seeing that in the last quarter at my showrooms. Pivoting to my style predictions for the upcoming year, maybe it's a reaction to the turmoil of the past few years or this almost unmanageable speed of new technology.

9:03But I'm seeing a strong swing away from the cold and slickness demanded by the ubiquitous McMansions and a renewed interest in the authentic and the handmade. I'm seeing a strong demand for crafts made products made from high quality woods and the inclusion of traditional crafts like wicker, rush, inlay and marquetry. Really a celebration of the hand woven and the handmade. I'm also seeing an increased ecological mindfulness and a sense of the security of the products that their furniture is made from. We're definitely seeing increased demand in Peter Dunham textiles and wallpapers for more texture, color, and warmth.

9:49In short, more personality and the charm of the artisanal product. Wishing you all a happy and healthy 2025. And may my predictions come true. I'm Leigh Mayer, and the CEO of Haven New Brand. For 2025, I really don't write to spend last again, but I do have a lot of cautious optimism for next year. I'm mostly hopeful that we get back to a year of relative normalcy in home furnishings. And I think we're all hoping for a declining interest rate environment. But I think also I'm hoping for a strong consumer, particularly to get to the end of next year. Theoretically, 30 % of households are exposed to the stock market and the stock market's been good.

10:32And many have seen their home values increase disproportionately. and helping the consumer is strong and who needs to invest in both experiences that matter, particularly in their home. I think though, particularly in the first part of the year, I think we'll continue to see a little bit of the tale of three cities that we've seen in our industry. You have companies going out of business or showing double-digit year-over-year decline. And then on the other hand, you have other companies that continue to sort of grow, seal market share and make inroads into consumers' mind share. Regardless of what happens next year, I hope everyone has a happy holiday and a happy new year.

11:14Hi, this is Satya Tiwari, CEO of Surya Inc. In 2025, I'm feeling optimistic about the opportunities ahead. 2024 was a tough year for the home furnishings industry, but it gave us the chance to focus and get ready for what's next at surya inc we have been working hard to strengthen our brands surya global views and mitchell gold plus bob williams and invest in what matters most great products and great service for our customers with inflation easing and consumer confidence improving we see a better environment ahead even as trends in housing and supply chains continue to shift. We're ready to meet the challenges and make the most of the opportunities.

12:01Here's to a strong and exciting 2025. Thank you. Hi, this is Jonathan Miller from Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers based in New York. And here are some thoughts on the 2025 housing market. We have been seeing a year-over-year surge in contracts here in the city, despite the fact that mortgage rates are stuck at a higher level than was thought to be just a couple months ago. It does look like 2025 is going to be, we anticipate more sales activity, not because of lower rates. Consumers, those on the fence about purchasing, have been waiting for mortgage rates to come down for two and a half to three years now since the Fed pivoted in early 22.

12:51Patience has worn thin. We're already seeing expansion of sales, as I mentioned earlier, and we're also seeing a slight increase in listing inventory, which means that both buyers and sellers, their resolve is weakening to wait until rates come down. So we're anticipating more activity, possibly favoring the higher end of the market as the financial markets are strong. That has enabled at the high end a bypass to mortgage rates being somewhat elevated. So look for 2025 to be more activity, likely higher, somewhat higher housing prices and certainly interesting. Hi, this is Beau Stump from Stump & Company.

13:41In 2025, I think the business performance is going to continue to improve and M &A activity is going to pick up. We're already seeing this in the home furnishings industry with Dunes Point Capital's recent acquisition of Cravit. We expect several more exciting deals like this to be announced in the broader home and commercial furnishings industry. Also, with the political transition coming up just a month away, we'll be paying close attention for any changes in the U.S. government policies, whether tax changes, tariffs, adjustments to our immigration system, interest rates, and much more. All in all, we're optimistic 2025 will be a return to form for the furniture industry, and we're confident it'll be a great year for M &A deals.

14:26Hello, everybody. This is Alex Shuford, CEO of the Rock House Brands. We are generally optimistic about 2025. We think it will be a year of growth for us and hopefully for the industry. We think the Fed will continue to lower rates, maybe not consistently, but steadily over the year. And we think there's a lot of pent-up demand in the housing market that is ready to be released. So my best to everybody for a great 2025 and Happy New Year to you all. Happy New Year, Dennis. and business of home. It's Josh Wiener, the CEO and founder of Silver Lining. Our firm is excited for what's to come in 2025.

15:08We've got great active projects in the Hamptons, Los Angeles, New York City, and now we're in Miami. All these markets, we see our clients concerned with wellness and crafting their living spaces with amenities more closely resembling a spa. They're also very inspired by yacht design, which is an interesting way to deal with an apartment. Silver Lining's recent expansion in Miami has also been a learning experience. We see immense potential in Florida for 2025. So it'll be a good year and we're excited about it. I'm Heidi Callier. I am the principal of Heidi Callier Design. I am feeling optimistic about next year.

15:44The past few years have felt really chaotic and unsure. And I think that 2025 is going to have an optimistic feel to it. The projects that we're currently working on and the ones that we are slated to start in the new year all have a really positive feel and vibe to them and people are excited and there's an exuberance about design that I haven't seen in a while. I think that homeowners are looking for warm, layered, and really personalized spaces now. Everyone is traveling a lot and they want to see their homes reflect the lifestyle that they're living and they want them to reflect the families and people that they are.

16:33There's a renewed attention to details and rooms that feel comfortable and inspirational. And I personally find that really inspiring. I would say that clients are feeling excited again about their homes, about the whole design process, and they really are wanting to participate in that. And I I see that continuing. And they're feeling really excited about individual special pieces that are unique to them and their homes and feel really reflective of their lives. Personally, I'm feeling really optimistic as well. We had a great year in 2024, and I'm really excited about what's coming in 2025. We continue to work on projects all over the country, and I feel excited every time we get to start something new.

17:27We have some exciting product moments launching in 2025, which is new for us. And on a personal front and professional front, I'm really thrilled to be moving back to San Francisco with my family. And I will also be relocating my studio there next summer.

17:51And we're back. All right. That's it for predictions. Seems like we're, seems like many people think we're in for a great year. Fred, did anyone's predictions jump out at you? Well, I did like all the positive predictions. Those are always a good way to start off the new year. One little moment that actually jumped out to me was Heidi Callier's prediction, where she was talking about how a lot of her clients have been traveling. You know, this is, of course, the bane of the home industry's existence is that people have spent the last two or three years traveling instead of spending on their homes.

18:19But what that means is you have all these clients who have been spending so much time out in the world seeing interesting things. They want to bring it back to their home. Maybe that ties in nicely with your prediction or our prediction about the return of color. So maybe that's going to be sort of the downstream effect of all this travel is that people's homes are going to get a little more global, a little more interesting, a little more unique. I thought that was a really interesting smart take from Heidi. What jumped out to you? I was struck by what Kira Hartnett from 22 had to say about authenticity.

18:48And again, I think this ties in. It's all going to tie back to color, I think. I do think that people are longing to be more true to themselves and express that more through their homes. You and I were talking recently on a show that maybe the color story is in part people not thinking as much about resale and not thinking about having to worry about what other people are going to think. And maybe that we're going to see more of that. And it could be a powerful driver in the design world next year. So I thought that was interesting. And I think it all sort of fits together somehow. Yeah, I mean, I think authenticity is obviously a good idea in any age, but especially in an era where there's just so much digital manipulation, so much AI wizardry, focusing on what really matters to you and delivering something that's real and true to yourself is obviously more and more valuable.

19:44So I think everyone that focuses on that is going to do well in 2025. I know most of our guests certainly do. And I know, Dennis, you and I strive to be authentic. So hopefully we too will thrive in 2025. I definitely try and bring my authentic self to the Thursday show, Fred. For better or for worse, perhaps. All right. That's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings, or take a workshop, visit us online at businessofhome.com. If you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast at businessofhome.com.

20:20This episode was produced by Fred Nikolaus and edited by Michael Castaneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Have a great weekend, and we'll be back with you on Monday.