The Thursday Show: What will happen in 2026?

0:06This is Business of Home. I'm Dennis Scully and welcome to the Thursday show. Today we're going to be going over predictions for the new year. To do that, I'm joined by Business of Homes Executive Editor, Fred Nikolaus. Hi, Fred. Hi, Dennis. How's it going? Great. How you doing? Yeah, you just lied there because I know it's not going great. You've got a very... I'm doing so well. Can't you tell, Fred? You've got a flu that's followed you all the way to San Francisco. How are you holding up? Chased after me. I arrive in San Francisco, have to check into urgent care? What kind of vacation is this, Fred?

0:41Do they allow podcast microphones in urgent care? That's my question. Well, I guess you're a little bit on the mend. You know, one thing we should flash back to is you promised to do some investigative detective work while in San Francisco about why San Francisco designers are ignored. What have you found out so far? Well, you know, I was afraid to get too close to too many designers here in San Francisco, my current condition. So I'll have to give you an update perhaps later in the week. Okay, wear a mask when you go searching for the truth. But yes, I'm doing well. You know, it's that time of the year where I don't know what day it is.

1:14I forget how a keyboard and a microphone work. So if this goes out, it'll be a miracle. But fun to get a quick podcast session in before the new year hits us. I always love this episode. And let's let's tell people what we're doing here, Fred. Sure. Well, it is time to look ahead at 2026. It's coming up fast. And what we always like to do is get a bunch of predictions from around the industry. And we like to focus on people who are on the podcast this year. So we did a big sweep of all the guests who are on the show this year to get them to record predictions for what they what they think will happen in the new year.

1:49We've got Stephanie Sabi. We've got Lee Mayer of Havenly. Who else? We've got a bunch of heavy hitters here. Yeah, it's a whole list of heavy hitters. Jill Cohen from Lux weighed in. Cyrus Lalloy from Lalloy is on tap. And it's a big group. Yeah, John Edelman's in there. Lots of great people. And, you know, last year, a lot of people had like very optimistic predictions for how 2025 was going to go. Let's see how they feel about 2026. Yeah, I mean, I think that people are thinking what could possibly happen next in the coming year, but we'll see. Quick housekeeping note. We're going to kick it off with a prediction from David Netto, but first, we're going to take a quick break.

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3:21I think that in 2026, something we're going to see more of in design is very much younger people seeking to express very much higher levels of talent than we've been seeing. I think there's been a bit of a trend for decorating to drift into being show business, and that's why a lot of people maybe are choosing it as a career. But with the deaths of Frank Gehry and Bob Stern, you know, real titanic talents who were put on this earth to do what they did and young people missing that kind of, you know, absolute unquestionable leadership at the top. I think that there will be a power vacuum of quality and very much younger designers are going to try to replace it by being themselves.

4:17And that it's going to represent some kind of return of integrity to the whole operation, where people with natural talent who were born to do it are the ones that people are paying attention to and doing it. Hi, my name is Stephanie Stadby and I'm with Stadby Interior Design. And my prediction for 2026 is that the average American is going to wake up and demand that the mass building industry stop feeding them these sterile, white, lifeless boxes for homes. and that we return to the days of character and charm and just good architecture that makes the cities we love to visit worth visiting. And I think it will have to be the people to make the change because as long as we buy it, they're going to keep building it.

5:09I really predict in 2026 we're going to start doing better. We're going to say no. Hi, this is Leigh Mayer and I'm the CEO of Havenly Brands. As you know, I was so wrong about 2025. I was hopeful for what 2025 had in store for us as an industry. However, 2025 was a year of tumult for our industry and others with tariffs and continued economic uncertainty and a housing market recovery that never transpired. Looking ahead to 2026, I think we'll see more stability. We've all ingested the impact of tariffs across the industry, rethink your supply chain and pricing strategy. And I think with continued interest rate cuts on the horizon, we might actually see that housing market recovery we've been thinking about for so many years.

5:58I think second, it'll be a year of continued consolidation as smaller players and mid-sized players band together to help withstand some of the vicissitudes of the market and get access to resources. I think third, AI will continue to sort of transform the way we do business, whether it's how we design things, but also how so many of us operate. Whether it's customer service or sourcing or trend identification, AI is very clearly an area where you can see it touching every element of our businesses. Let's see if I'm more right about 2026 than I was in 2025. Hi, my name is John Edelman. I'm the CEO of Heller Furniture and the president of Be Original Americas.

6:45And similar predictions for 2026 relate to a return to value, not inexpensive, not cheap, but value, authenticity. I believe that frilly things, extravagant things, things that lose value over time will go away and decrease in demand. With the surging interest in AI and AI-created images, I believe that we're going to go for organic content, things that are made by hand, that are high design, designed by people, and have great longevity. I think they're going to double down on sustainability, and those two things coupled will be excellent for the interior design industry. Hey there, this is Colin King, stylist, designer, and writer of a subset called The Last Layer.

7:45Next year, what I find myself watching for in the home industry is a return to images and objects that feel touched by real people. I'm grateful to be working on a few upcoming projects that had me really thinking carefully about how things are presented. And it made me realize how narrow our visual language has become. So much of what we see is beautiful, but increasingly smooth, efficient and familiar. I hope 2026 is a moment where photography feels more artful again, where we can sense the human hand behind the image, the decisions, the hesitations and even the imperfections instead of something frictionless or overly optimized.

8:26I'm drawn to work that leaves a little space, images that don't explain everything but trust the viewer, that feel made and not generated. On a personal level, I'm trying to approach my work with more restraint and care, listening more, editing more, and staying curious about what actually resonates rather than what performs. I feel lucky to be a part of an industry that still values craft, collaboration, and point of view, and I'm hopeful that we'll continue to make room for work that feels human and considered. And that's what I'll be paying attention to in 2026. Happy New Year. Hi, this is David Rosenwasser, co-founder at Rarefy.

9:07Here are my predictions for 2026. I'm forecasting there's going to be more consolidation and simultaneous turmoil in the big business of high design. So to me, it seems like big businesses have an appetite for gobbling up others, but maybe they still aren't very good at managing the companies. And so a lot of talent ends up leaving and things go a little nuts. I think more of that is going to happen. And we see quite a lot of turnover with many of the companies we work with, I think, because of that. I think the movement toward collectible design is going to continue to grow to some degree out of necessity for designers.

9:44I had a conversation yesterday with a journalist who noted that she feels that young designers are gravitating toward the collectible design world. And we sort of nodded that it was maybe because the legacy design houses keep reusing their old friends and the big stars of the world. Or otherwise pull archival pieces out of the woodwork also from sort of legends in the industry without really giving as much opportunity to the sort of emerging industrial designers. We're going to see a lot more drops of those historic furniture pieces from the past in 2026. and we're all going to also get to talk about whether that's a really great thing and pieces that we love seeing them brought back to life or whether that's a misdirected use of resources.

10:26There's also going to be a shift toward manufacturers making a lower barrier to entry for industrial designers to contribute new work without so much risk or volume required. I think that the tariffs and heavy dependency on manufacturing in China, along with difficulties that young industrial designers face creates a really nice opportunity for manufacturers to try and take advantage of it if they want to use the opportunity. And I think that's also sort of a good cause for those who are aware enough to realize that it's an opportunity. Hi there, this is Cyrus Lolloy and I'm a principal at Lolloy Rugs.

11:05For 2026, despite all the noise, what I'm optimistic about heading into the new year is how thoughtful the industry has become. I think because of tariffs primarily, there's been more intention from vendors around things like design and sourcing and storytelling than there was even a year ago. And I think that's going to lead to great new design for the industry. Hey everybody, Alex Shuford here, the CEO of the Rockhouse Brands. Thinking about next year, I kind of imagine us riding one of those old wooden amusement park roller coasters. The kind that starts off with a big sudden drop that scares everybody and causes lots of screaming and shouting.

11:48And then slowly over the course of the rest of the ride, sort of makes its way back up to the platform with some curves along the way and lots of noise and rattling. And then when you get off the roller coaster, you realize you ended up exactly where you started, but you feel a little shaken by the experience. So hopefully I'm wrong, but somewhere along the way, we're probably going to have a bit of a correction. And then I expect we'll probably recover from that correction as the administration takes action to make sure the economy is in a pretty healthy position by the November elections. More importantly, I want everybody to have a wonderful end of 2025 and a happy new year.

12:31And I really just appreciate the team at Business of Home for being such a great voice of logic and calm for our industry. We all learn something every time we listen. Thank you, guys. Hi, this is Susan Farrier. My company is Susan Farrier Interiors. I am looking forward to a reset in 2026. prioritizing meaningful gatherings, celebrating reinvention, and designing in light atmospheric layers. Mystery rather than the shadow of muddled layers that have confused us in 2025. We should all revel in thinking and strive to be thoughtful in the new year. Hi, this is Jill Cohen, and I'm Editor-in-Chief of Lux Interiors and Design.

13:25For 2026, I predict that homeowners will seek the calm and restorative home with a focus on physical and mental well-being to escape from sensory overload. The simple pleasure of relaxing with beautiful magazine content will offer an uninterrupted relief from the noise. Hello, this is Sean Yashar of The Culture Creative, and I'm feeling a bit like Stefan from SNL right now. The design industry's hottest new trend for 2026 will be radical elegance. From quiet luxury to over-the-top maximalism, the design world has reached a tipping point for the cult of influence and the era of disruption. Designers are finally shaking off the algorithm's chokehold, those manufactured, caricaturized styles optimized for 2D consumption, to reclaim the true tenets of the golden ratio.

14:20In 2026, the pendulum swings to the center towards radical elegance of appropriate design. This is not a nostalgic return to classics, but a new posture in contemporary work, one that is uninterested in design as performance. We are over those unflattering blobby silhouettes, chairs you can't sit in, lights that don't illuminate, forms that repel rather than welcome. The mandate for 2026 is design that elevates us. As legacy media continues to contract and placements grow more scarce, the pressure to participate in trend cycle theatrics fades. The incentive to chase noise simply no longer exists in 2026.

15:02The most innovative move in design next year won't be to disrupt, but to contribute to living beautifully.

15:32Plus all of their new one-of-a-kind vintage collections. Open a trade account and make an appointment at laloyrugs.com. That's L-O-L-O-Y rugs.com. And don't forget to follow at laloyrugs on Instagram and TikTok.

16:00And we're back. So Fred. What did you think of the predictions? I think all our guests are very smart, and I hope all their predictions come true because they were largely positive. So, yeah, I loved it. My favorite one was Stephanie Sabby because I just love her optimism about how developers are going to start respecting design and style a little bit more. I don't know if I'm super optimistic about that one, but I like that Stephanie made the prediction and she's out there fighting the good fight. What about you? Which prediction jumped out at you? I agree about our friend Stephanie, and I certainly hope that comes true.

16:33I love that people try to be more positive in the coming year. David Netto's prediction actually jumped out at me quite a bit. This whole conversation we've been having recently about how the design industry has turned into a bit of show business, and David references that, but also made the point that perhaps some new young talent will emerge from all of this, and I'm always hopeful about that. Yeah, just like me, new young talent. a little Gen Z kid that can just how I think of you Fred I'm so glad you were able to break through yeah exactly well that was really fun normally we'd say what caught our eye but nothing has caught my eye except for you know cookies over the past week so I'm going to give myself a mulligan on that one and just say see you in the new year Dennis indeed and thank you again to everyone who sent in predictions it was a lot of fun I really appreciate everyone making the time I hope you all enjoyed it And thank you again to our listeners.

17:30And we'll see you in 2026. All right. That's all the time we have today. Thanks so much for listening. If you want to keep up with the latest news, browse job listings, or take a workshop, visit us online at businessofhome.com. If you want to get in touch with the show, write to us at podcast at businessofhome.com. This episode was produced by Fred Nikolaus and Caroline Burke and edited by Michael Castagneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Have a great weekend. and we'll be back with you on Monday.