In short
Business Wars: Waymo and the Rise of the Robotaxis | Episode 3 Summary
Overview In this episode, host David Brown shares his firsthand experience riding in a Waymo robotaxi in Austin, Texas. The episode also features insights from Larry Burns, a former Waymo consultant and author, discussing the implications of autonomous vehicles for the future of transportation.
Key Segments
- The Ride Experience
- Location: Austin, Texas
- Experiment: David and his daughter, Magnolia, hail a Waymo robotaxi to experience a driverless ride.
- Challenges Faced:
- Initial attempts to hail a Waymo were unsuccessful due to the experimental status in Austin, requiring the use of the Uber app.
- They mistakenly entered the wrong Waymo vehicle before eventually finding theirs.
- First Impressions:
- The car had a futuristic ambiance with a soothing voice giving instructions and reminders, emphasizing safety protocols like buckling up.
- Their first ride showcased the vehicle's ability to navigate and make decisions, including avoiding obstacles.
- Autonomous Vehicle Discussion
- Expert Guest: Larry Burns, who has a long history in the automotive industry and consulted for Waymo.
- Key Points from Larry Burns:
- Safety: Autonomous vehicles should prioritize safety, with data indicating they are potentially five to ten times safer than human drivers.
- Public Perception: Many people enjoy driving, yet the monotony of traffic reduces this enjoyment. Autonomous vehicles could offer a means of transport that eliminates the boring aspects of driving.
- Learning and Adapting: Autonomous vehicles must learn from various driving environments. The experience gained in places like San Francisco helps improve performance in other cities.
- Future Implications
- Market Trends: Larry predicts a significant shift in the automotive industry within the next 20 to 30 years, emphasizing:
- The evolution of vehicle ownership models, with possible reduction in the number of personal cars as shared autonomous vehicles become prevalent.
- Potential for cost reductions in transportation, possibly lowering costs to around 30-40 cents per mile.
- Sustainability and Equity: Larry highlights how autonomous vehicles could address challenges related to sustainability and improve access to transportation for various populations, especially those unable to drive.
- Challenges Ahead
- Technical Debates: Discussion about sensor technology (LiDAR vs. radar) and the ongoing evolution of autonomous vehicle systems.
- Infrastructure Issues: Mention of previous outages affecting Waymo's operations, illustrating the need for reliable systems in all conditions.
- Public Sentiment & Adoption
- Personal Experiences: David's ride along with his daughter shifts his perspective on autonomous vehicles, emphasizing the importance of firsthand experiences in shaping public acceptance.
- Future Expectations: Larry expresses optimism about the imminent tipping point for mainstream adoption of autonomous vehicles.
Conclusion The episode encapsulates the transformative nature of autonomous vehicles through personal experience and expert insights. As companies like Waymo push the boundaries of technology, the future of transportation is poised for significant changes that could redefine mobility, enhance safety, and promote sustainable practices.
Key Takeaways
- The personal experience of riding in a robotaxi can alter perceptions of autonomous technology.
- Safety is paramount in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicles.
- The automotive market may see drastic changes in vehicle ownership and cost structures in the coming decades.
- Learning from real-world driving challenges will be crucial for the success of autonomous vehicles in diverse environments.
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This summary encapsulates the key elements of the Business Wars podcast episode on Waymo and robotaxis, providing insights into the future of autonomous vehicles and their implications on society.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOExperiencing a Robo-Taxi
0:45 to 2:43
David and his daughter hail a Waymo and document their ride experience.
“I couldn't help but wonder what it's really like to be a passenger in a car with no driver.”
Hailing the Waymo
3:33 to 4:28
David discusses the challenges of hailing a driverless taxi in Austin.
“Right now, my mission here on the streets of Austin is simple.”
The First Ride Experience
4:28 to 5:35
David and Magnolia board their Waymo and share their initial impressions.
“Hey, hey, hey, I think we may have a Waymo.”
Navigating the Journey
5:35 to 10:11
They experience various aspects of the ride, including navigation and detours.
“Turns out the initials on top should match your own.”
Teen Perspectives on Robo-Taxis
10:11 to 12:15
Magnolia shares her thoughts on the safety of Waymo compared to Uber.
“I have ideas about like that detour I just took.”
Final Thoughts and Farewell
12:15 to 12:59
David shares final reflections after the ride and hints at upcoming discussions.
“Oh, we were still being recorded by Waymo for security purposes, which they do disclose to you.”
Larry Burns' Passion for Autonomous Vehicles
15:43 to 17:00
Explore how Larry's career experiences shaped his passion for autonomous vehicles.
“How did autonomous vehicles become something you're so passionate about?”
The Tension of Driving vs. Safety
17:00 to 18:34
Discussion on the relationship between love for driving and the safety of autonomous vehicles.
“Larry, let me ask you about something because that ride in the Waymo is still so fresh with me.”
Early Experiences in Autonomous Vehicles
18:34 to 20:45
Larry shares his initial experiences with autonomous vehicles during development.
“He didn't write Little Red Laptop Computer.”
Waymo's Safety Record and Strategy
20:45 to 22:30
Larry discusses Waymo's approach to safety and its implications in the industry.
“A little later on, David, a Volkswagen came and cut in front of me, and I realized my Prius had already started to back off and create a gap for that car.”
Show all 17 chapters
Understanding Robo-Taxi Operations
22:30 to 24:50
A breakdown of how modern robo-taxis function in urban environments.
“At some point, this will all get all validated through all the different use cases.”
Sensor Technology Debate in Autonomous Driving
24:50 to 26:55
Discussion on the debate surrounding sensor technology in autonomous vehicles.
“An autonomous car is perceiving just like you are as a person.”
Learning in Complex Urban Environments
26:55 to 28:00
Insights on how robo-taxis learn to navigate challenging city landscapes.
“You know, I mean, those were roads that were made by, you know, cow paths.”
Exploring Autonomous Vehicles
28:30 to 30:48
Discussion about the design and functionality of autonomous vehicles.
“Our guest is author, professor, and automotive industry innovator Larry Burns.”
Challenges and Learning Moments
30:48 to 33:42
Examining how Waymo's vehicles respond to infrastructure failures and learning.
“So all kinds of factors that went into that, that lead to the vehicle being the size that it is and being packaged the way that it is.”
Public Perception and Acceptance
33:42 to 36:37
Discussion on how public perception affects the acceptance of autonomous vehicles.
“There's a lot of people weighing in on this debate who've never experienced an autonomous car.”
Future of Autonomous Vehicles
36:37 to 40:06
Insights on the potential impact and economics of autonomous transportation.
“On the other hand, you have all of these costs on the flip side, the insurance costs that go down, the energy costs that go down, all those prices that go down.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:07David Brown:Hey there, I'm David Brown and welcome to Business Wars.
0:30David Brown:We're starting this episode off a bit differently, and that's because we begin today far from the cozy confines of the studio. We're on the streets of Austin, Texas, where we're trying a little experiment. Having finished the first two episodes in our series on the rise of autonomous vehicles, I couldn't help but wonder what it's really like to be a passenger in a car with no driver. Hey, hey, hey, I think we may have a Waymo. It says, nice, your pickup is right on time. Hello, from Waymo. Coming up, you'll get to ride shotgun with my daughter and me. We went downtown to hail one of these robo-taxis and document what it's like to take a ride in one of these cars of the future.
1:13David Brown:See, recently there was a story in the New York Times that basically made the case for the inevitability of self-driving cars. According to that article, the data that's already been gathered suggests that from a public safety standpoint alone, it seems undeniable that we're headed toward a driverless revolution. The only remaining question is how close we are to that tipping point. After the ride-along, we'll hear from Larry Burns. He's a former automotive executive and author of Autonomy, the Quest to Build a Driverless Car and How It Will Reshape Our World. He literally wrote the book on what a driverless future could look like and spent 10 years consulting for Waymo to help turn these sci-fi sounding dreams into a reality.
1:57David Brown:Larry talks about how he got involved with Google's self-driving cars and how he sees self-driving cars reshaping our society for the better. But as a reporter, I tend to be a little suspicious of the hype around things that are called the next revolution in transportation. So before we get into it with Larry, let's hit the streets and see how these robo-taxis work, shall we? All that's coming up.
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3:32David Brown:Welcome back to Business Wars. Right now, my mission here on the streets of Austin is simple. Hail a driverless taxi and check out what it's like firsthand. This should be easy, but it's not. I've been trying to get from South Congress Avenue to Waterloo Records, my favorite vinyl record shop, for several minutes now, but I keep getting assigned a human driver, and then I have to cancel the request and try again. Several cities across the U.S. now allow driverless taxis, but here in Austin, it's still considered experimental. You can't just hail a Waymo through the Waymo app. Instead, Waymo has partnered with Uber for a limited rollout of their fully autonomous cabs.
4:12David Brown:You have to go to the Uber app, opt in to driverless rides in your settings, and then get lucky enough to get a signed one. And word on the street is you won't get a signed one unless you're downtown and making a shorter trip of, say, a couple of miles. So we adjusted our pickup point to see if we could get lucky. Hey, hey, hey, I think we may have a Waymo. Hang on a second, if I can read this right. Pick up in one minute. Lucky for me, I had a co-pilot, my daughter, Magnolia. Oh, you say, hello, Magnolia. Hello. And she's holding the microphone while I try to figure out exactly where the pickup point is.
4:52David Brown:It says, Home Slice Pizza Pickup Spot 1. So let's pick. Aren't we outside of Home Slice? Once the pickup point was secured, it was time for our next challenge, figuring out which Waymo was ours. Looks like it's coming up on us. Oh, there it is. All right. Ah, there's the Waymo. Is there anybody behind the wheel? Nope. Nope? Oh, my goodness. Okay, the little spinny light on top says CP, and now the doors have opened. And let's get in. But we made a big rookie mistake. Oh, really? Good afternoon. Oh, thank you. Oh, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Alright, someone else got a Waymo and we got into the wrong vehicle.
5:37David Brown:Turns out the initials on top should match your own. Oops. We quickly spotted another vehicle sporting DB on the top. We opened the doors to find a screen wishing us good afternoon. Soft, new-age music flowed out of the speakers, creating a spa-like atmosphere. A cheerful, soothing voice greeted us. Hello from Waymo. As we get going, just give us one minute to cover a few riding tips. This experience may feel futuristic, but the need to buckle up is the same as always. So keep your seatbelt fastened, please. Can I buckle up, please? If you're traveling with me... That whisper you're hearing is my daughter.
6:16David Brown:Now, here was my second robo-taxi party foul. I took too long to buckle up, which got us in a bit of trouble. Oh, I guess I need to buckle up. That's the point. That's what they just said.
6:30David Brown:Seconds later, the car had called up Waymo support. Hi, this is Rose with you. Sir, for interrupting your truck, you just received a seatbelt from the core guarding with your ride. And upon checking here, it's because the seatbelts are unbuckled. Okay, it looks like we're buckled up now. Once we were all buckled up, it was time to hit the road. A message on the steering wheel reminds riders to keep their hands off and that the Waymo driver is in control, a.k.a. the computer. A screen sits between the driver and passenger seats. You can see all the cars. You can see the cyclist who just went by on the side.
7:05David Brown:And it actually, it shows you if there's other Waymo cars. All of the other cars are in blue, but any other Waymo is not in blue. And then there's us with the Happy New Year flag on it. Very nice. Now, as a car guy, I couldn't help but notice the car's interior. I asked Magnolia what she thought about the vehicle. Would you want to have a Jaguar based on sitting in this car? Me personally? Yeah. Yes. I think this is kind of a decent sales technique for Jags. Yeah, and also because by Uber using it for a self-driving car, they're basically telling you it's safe. They're telling you that, you know, in the crazy world, maybe where this gets into like an accident, right, you're going to be safe because we want you to believe or at least we want you to know that we're using like a top-of-the-line car.
7:54David Brown:Yeah, yeah. So that way, you know. Yeah, there's not rattles in here. It seems like it's really nicely built. Very quick. Very quick, yeah. Once we arrived at our destination, we stopped for some lunch and then mentally prepared for the second leg of our Waymo journey. Inhaling this next one, I experienced my third robo-taxi party foul of the day. This time, I knew to look for the car that said DB on top, but I didn't know where exactly I should meet it. I think this might be it. Hello, maybe? Let's go over here. Wait for it to get to its spot because it's holding up. Okay, two Waymos meet in a parking lot.
8:30David Brown:If you stand in front of its sensors, it will think that you're asking to get into it, but it won't know for sure. Oops. With a human driver, I could wave at them from across the street. We could just walk up, they'd unlock the doors, and we'd tumble in. But with a robo-taxi, the car has to come to you. Okay, noted. Once inside, I buckled up right away so we could hit the road. Happy New Year. Oh, that was cute. Wishing us a happy new year. This time around, our robot driver pulled off an impressive maneuver in a congested area. Oh, look, now it's going to do a three-point reverse, like a U-turn.
9:07David Brown:Three-point turn to get out of a parking lot. Do you see? Everyone's just constantly... Hey, we're famous. Yeah, it's funny because I've seen these all over town, but people still can't help but gawk. Gotta say, I was even more impressed by this second ride. The things the Waymo could pick up on were akin to what a human driver might do. For example, look at this. Now this one, the Waymo has just figured out that car in front of us was just stopped. That it wasn't like a line of traffic. That's pretty smart. Did you notice that? Yeah, so it went around. So it went around the car in front of us.
9:40David Brown:That's pretty cool. But there was one moment where the car took a slight detour that had both of us a little spooked. I was not expecting that. I thought we were just going straight into traffic there for a second. And oh my gosh. So it is it is recalculated a back way, which I've never been on. Very unfamiliar back way. But it really sped up around that detour. It sure did. It's like, where are we going? Yeah, that was that was a wild detour. Once our heart rates returned to normal, I asked Magnolia how she felt about taking Waymo versus an Uber from the perspective of a teen. I still have misgivings.
10:15David Brown:I have ideas about like that detour I just took. It didn't tell us it was rerouting. It didn't tell us it was taking a detour. It just went. And I feel like it would be, I think maybe something that they could do is say like rerouting. Or just say we're taking a different route. Going the fastest route. Because if you're sitting in a Waymo and you don't know that, you're like, where the heck am I going? You don't know that it's still taking you there. Pros for regular Uber? Yeah. I guess you don't worry as much about there being like a computing error, right? You don't worry about like anything like that.
10:49David Brown:You're not worried about the computing error. In a regular Uber. Oh, in a regular Uber, okay. Right. But also, there's always like a worry of like, you know, your own personal safety in an Uber. There's been countless examples of like, you know, Uber drivers taking you to such a place that's not your home, stuff like that, right? Someone who is a bad Uber driver. Yeah, right. Right. But as a teenager, I've kind of refused to take Uber because I feel more unsafe. Sure. And I think that seeing how this operates, I feel a little bit more safe. As well as the fact that there's support watching. And even if you don't even plug in your seatbelt all the way, right?
11:28David Brown:Right. They tune in. They say, hey, just saw that you didn't plug in. So if something freaky happened, you could reach down and touch support and you know that somebody would get out. Or if I felt unsafe or I was unsure or I just wanted to double check, I'm like, hey, you know, I'm a minor, you know, I'm in this car alone. I just want to make sure like it's where I need to go. Despite the bumps in the road, I have to say that overall, I was impressed. We went from a very busy shopping district to a more relaxed area. There's a button that says pull over in case you need to stop the ride suddenly.
11:59David Brown:The Waymo was able to identify an easy drop off point. When you're near your destination, the car reminds you to grab your keys, phone, and wallet. The cars were clean, and it felt like a more private experience without a human driver to listen in on your conversation. Oh, we were still being recorded by Waymo for security purposes, which they do disclose to you. That's a little weird, but it didn't make me feel unsafe. If anything, it all feels a little magic. As we reached our final stop, we bid farewell to our robo-taxi pal. All right. You're here. Please make sure you're here for exiting. Thank you, Waymo.
12:38David Brown:Thank you, Waymo. See you next year. It kind of sounded like it responded to us there. Until next time. Reporting live from Austin, Texas. I'm David Brown. Oh, I'm Magnolia Brown. I wasn't ready for that. I'm David Brown. I'm Magnolia Brown. And we'll talk again later next time. perhaps on Business Wars. Coming up. It's going to be very disruptive to the auto industry. And I think much of what I'm talking about isn't 100 years away. I think it's 20, 30 years away. Now that I've had a taste of the autonomous vehicle experience, we're going to talk to the man who literally wrote the book on how these cars will shape our future.
13:17David Brown:Stick around.
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14:59David Brown:Welcome back to Business Wars. As Waymo robo-taxis catch on in cities across the U.S., now that I've had my own Waymo experience, I wanted to speak with an expert on the subject to get to know these cars a little bit better. Larry Burns is an automotive industry executive with nearly 40 years of experience. He served as the VP for General Motors Research and Development Division and later consulted for Waymo from 2010 to 2022. He's the author of the book Autonomy, the quest to build the driverless car and how it will reshape our world. Larry is optimistic about the future of these vehicles, citing their ability to improve physical and virtual access for so many populations worldwide.
15:40David Brown:and he joins us now to talk about it. Larry Burns, welcome to Business Wars. Thank you very much, David. How did autonomous vehicles become something you're so passionate about? Is there a moment from your own life that sparked your interest in innovating in this space? Actually, there was. When I became head of research and development at General Motors in 1998, my boss, who was subsequently the CEO of GM, Rick Wagner, he asked me a really profound question. He said, Larry, if we were inventing the car today rather than 100 years ago, what would you do different? That's what I want you to think about as my head of R &D.
16:17And one of the things that was very much on my mind at that time was the fact that over 40 ,000 people per year were dying in car crashes. And driver distraction had become a very hot topic. And I concluded that maybe driving was the distraction. Why would someone possibly go 70 miles an hour on our freeway and send a text or look at their phone. So this opportunity to rethink the car in terms of a different design DNA, an electric vehicle that was autonomous, that was connected virtually to everything that's going on around it. What might that be like as the alternative to the hundred-year-old DNA of the car?
16:57So that was the moment that really got my attention.
17:00David Brown:Larry, let me ask you about something because that ride in the Waymo is still so fresh with me. And I remember sitting in that car and having that thought, you know, that, wow, if everyone were in these self-driving vehicles, what a much safer world this would be in a sense. But at the same time, I love driving. And I know you got to be a car guy too, you know, if you're working at GM. Is there a tension there between the fact that so many of us identify with the cars that we drive and love to drive, have a passion for the road, you know? And yet it does really feel like this safety factor is going to win out.
17:38I think it's a great question. I do a lot of public speaking and I ask my audiences, how many of you like to drive? And like you, David, most hands go up. Then I ask, how many of you like to drive in traffic? A lot of hands go down. Then I ask, how many like to stop to buy gas? How many like to be tethered to their steering wheel? And the simple fact is, when you observe the people's behavior, most driving is pretty boring. Now, when horses were popular, people loved their horses, and they had horse races, and they had equestrian, and we still have that today. I don't think anyone's walking around saying you won't be able to drive in the future.
18:15I think what we're saying is there's going to be another mode out there, which is the opportunity to just take a ride in what I call the ultimate riding machine rather than the ultimate a driving machine. And that's going to appeal to a lot of people, but certainly no one's out there saying that we shouldn't allow people to have the freedom to drive. You know, Prince wrote Little Red Corvette. He didn't write Little Red Laptop Computer. So people do fall in love with their cars. There's no question about that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure.
18:47David Brown:But, you know, I could have easily fallen in love or fallen asleep in the back of that Waymo because that was a real, real easy ride. Do you remember the first time you actually, you know, sat in an autonomous vehicle? That must have been way before any of us were really thinking about it. There's two moments I want to share. First was in the development of the vehicle that GM sponsored for the DARPA Urban Challenge, which took place in November 2007 in Victorville, California. We sponsored Carnegie Mellon University, and we created a vehicle with Carnegie Mellon called Boss. The founder of GM Research was named Boss Kettering.
19:25That's why we named it Boss. And since we were sponsoring this university, I had to go out there to see this vehicle. And I kept insisting to Red Whitaker and Chris Urmson, the two key people on the Carnegie Mellon team, I want to ride in it. And they said, well, I don't think you do. I said, no, I want to ride in it. So they let me ride in it on the test facility. But David, it wasn't unengineered for riding. It was herky and jerky, and I was getting car sick. And they were laughing and everything. So that was not a good experience, but it was my first time. The more profound experience is when, after this race took place, Google created Google Self-Driving Cars, and one of the key people on that team was a guy named Chris Urmson.
20:06And I'd gotten to know Chris very well through the Carnegie Mellon sponsorship. And Chris called me up and said, Larry, you know, we're doing this development work. It's been pretty quiet so far, but New York Times is going to break an article on this. Would you talk to them? Because it would help with our credibility. And I said, sure, but I want to ride in your car. And he invited me out. This was late 2010. And let me ride in their Prius on 101 in the San Francisco Bay Area. And it was remarkable. I'm in the lane. I'm riding autonomously in this Prius. And this great big truck comes up on my right.
20:43And my Prius nudges over to the left, just like I would do if I was driving. A little later on, David, a Volkswagen came and cut in front of me, and I realized my Prius had already started to back off and create a gap for that car. And I'm going, geez, this is 2010. This is going to work. I mean, we had a lot of work to do going forward from that point in time. And then Waymo brought me on as an advisor, sort of the gray beard advisor. They needed someone who understood the auto industry to come in and help them as they took their journey. And it was just a fantastic experience.
21:16David Brown:When you started working at Waymo, what was your approach to the work, and did it line up with Waymo's sort of slow and steady strategy? It did line up. I think this is a tortoise and a hare kind of a comparison. And I wrote a paper in a magazine called Autonomous Vehicle Engineering in 2019, and I made the case in that paper that the safety leader in autonomous vehicles will be the market leader, and vice versa. the market leader will be the safety leader. I think you've seen that play out. Waymo's safety record is pretty impressive. You know, they've been pretty transparent with their data, and you can pick different ways of measuring safety, whether it's for pedestrians and bicyclists versus people in the car.
21:58But it looks like they're five to ten times safer than human drivers. That's pretty darn profound. Then you look at what happened to Cruz when they had a very sad incident in San Francisco.
Read the full transcript
22:09David Brown:Cruise was General Motors' project. Yeah, Cruise was General Motors, yeah. And basically, Cruise was eliminated because of that. So the safety leader has to be the leader in this industry. Autonomous vehicles is about safety. So the tortoise and the hare analogy, to be honest, I'd rather ride slow on a safe tortoise than ride fast on a risky hare. At some point, this will all get all validated through all the different use cases. I think Waymo has an admirable safety record. Has this taken longer than most of us hoped or hyped? Absolutely. We really felt in 2010, we were going to be out there much sooner with robo-taxis and personal autonomous cars.
22:50So the problem proved to be harder than any of us really anticipated. But at the same time, the tools we had to get this done became better and better. Advanced simulation, better sensors, AI. Even right now, the sensors, I'm advising a company called Atomathic, and they've created a new platform for radar sensors that make them really reliable and sets up a whole new safety layer in the whole perception aspects of autonomous cars. So these enablers of autonomous driving have gotten better and better because people see the value once we get there, and you have to focus on safety as the overriding priority.
23:30So going slower is the right thing to do to ensure safety.
23:34David Brown:I think, though, there's a certain scare factor that a lot of people feel, especially because of those early incidents. You mentioned the cruise incident with GM. Some of those early incidents that got so much press, a lot of confusion about how this even works. In layman's terms, Larry, how would you explain how a modern robo-taxi is able to operate in a busy city environment? Just like you as a human driving a car. When you're driving your car, David, you're constantly making two decisions. How fast should I go and which way should I steer? That's it. Over and over and over again. Which way should I steer?
24:11How fast should I go? And what you have in an autonomous car is technologies that help you perceive the road ahead. Those are things called LiDAR, radar, cameras, digital maps. and the real pioneers in this field have said we're going to really load up with those sensors and those maps because safety is the overriding priority and we're going to really really really be safe in that perception of how fast I can go right now which way should I steer. So an autonomous car is making the same decisions a human driven car is. An autonomous car is perceiving just like you are as a person. And then the autonomous car is processing what they perceive and they're making decisions just like you do as a person.
25:01David Brown:But at the same time, though, Larry, isn't it true that there has been something of a debate over how many sensors you need and what kind of sensors? Because I know that at one point, at least in the popular conversation, it seemed like Tesla was way ahead. And then Elon Musk said, well, he wants to rely mostly on radar. LIDAR is a much more sophisticated system, as I understand it. But it's also more expensive, and it's bulkier, and there are other downsides, I guess. You have it absolutely right. But you can't cut the safety systems out of these development vehicles. We're still early on this development, David.
25:39I mean, it's very exciting. I think it is inevitable. I think we're approaching a tipping point on this where, actually, market forces will begin to take over and drive the scaling of the technology. But the journey from the DARPA Urban Challenge in 2007 to where we are today in 2026 had to be guided by safety, and the progress has been astonishing. And I think every little bit of data from every extra sensor you might put on your development cars, I think Waymo has 2 ,500 or 3 ,000 cars. So there's not that many cars out there. That's not that many extra sensors to really learn safely on the road.
26:16And if they didn't have that real commitment to safety being the priority and they had two or three incidences over the last 10 years, like what happened to Cruz, we may not be where we are. So not to overplay this, but Tesla has had some incidences that involve people not in their cars, people standing along the road who were killed by a Tesla and resulted in a huge lawsuit. Right. So you can't just factor in I'm in the vehicle and I want to be safe. You've got to factor in all the other people on the roads, using the roads as part of this equation on safety.
26:54David Brown:What can be done to help these robo-taxis navigate some of the more complex older cities? You think of Boston, for example. You know, I mean, those were roads that were made by, you know, cow paths. And you've got a lot of young people in that town, too, you know, and it's pretty dense population there. Or even, you know, highly trafficked cities like New York City. What else needs to happen before we start to see robo-taxis everywhere in those places? Yeah, this is all about learning. Local, state, and federal regulators have enabled companies like Waymo, Zoox, and others to learn on public roads.
27:31You're not going to learn everything you need to learn in a laboratory at a proven ground or doing simulation. You've got to get out there. And there is a degree of risk associated with that. San Francisco has been a focal point for several of the companies because it is a really challenging driving environment. And those learnings are carrying over. And I think that's shown at the speed at which Waymo is now moving to more and more cities, that they're being able to take what they've learned in San Francisco and apply that quickly to these other communities.
28:03David Brown:Larry Burns is a longtime automotive industry executive and former consultant for Waymo. And coming up, we're going to be taking a look at the cars themselves and hear what a fully autonomous society might actually look like. There's a whole lot more Business Wars ahead. Stick around.
28:29David Brown:Welcome back to Business Wars. Our guest is author, professor, and automotive industry innovator Larry Burns. Let's talk about the cars themselves. I'm excited about these cars. When we got into that Jaguar, I'd never been in that particular model of Jag before, and I was really impressed. Really, really impressed. So was my daughter, who said she would really like to have a Jaguar someday. Do you have any idea why they chose Jaguars for this vehicle? Well, what I can tell you is a whole bunch of things get factored in. We were looking for a vehicle that had an electrical architecture, a software architecture, controls architecture, which would make it easier to integrate these sensors and actuators.
29:16So when I say actuator, that's the actuation of the speed and the brakes and everything else.
29:21David Brown:You've got to tap into the spinal cord of that car. David, perfect. That's a perfect way to put that. Absolutely. And so tapping into that spinal cord made a lot of sense at that point in time. You factor in how easy it is to work with the other party when you do these kinds of things. And then there's going to be a business side. How much are the cars going to cost? Who's responsible for liabilities? You're cutting into that spinal cord. What does all that mean? So you look at a whole bunch of different options and you explore them. You have a whole bunch of different objectives. You have a timing that you want a certain number of cars in.
29:53And lo and behold, it converges on that. In the last week or so, Waymo announced the branding that they're putting on their next vehicle, and that branding is Ojai for Ojai, California, and it's a vehicle that was developed with the G.L.E. and Zeker.
30:10David Brown:Is this a purpose-built autonomous vehicle or no? Absolutely. That was a lot of purposeful thinking that went into that because we wanted it easy for someone to get in and out of the car. We wanted the doors to open wide so you could easily get in and bend your body and get into the seat and slide across. We wanted, obviously, to be safe and spacious. We wanted to have the flexibility for that vehicle to be able to have a driver in it if you need it. And, you know, there's some practical things when you're managing a fleet of autonomous vehicles like this, that maybe it's just easier to have someone jump in the seat and reposition the car in the fleet management lot and those kinds of things.
30:48So all kinds of factors that went into that, that lead to the vehicle being the size that it is and being packaged the way that it is. I think the way they thought about it, at least from what I've read, is you get in the car, the car goes, oh, hi, which is kind of nice and pleasant. That's cute. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, but it has a van SUV kind of a look to it with the doors that open up widely.
31:13David Brown:Making it real easy to get in and out. Yeah. Now, let's talk about when something goes wrong, maybe not with the car itself, but with the infrastructure. I mean, wasn't there like a power outage in San Francisco last December where the Waymo vehicles didn't know how to handle it? Do you know what I'm talking about? From my understanding is there was a significant power outage in San Francisco. And as a result, the ability of the Waymo cars to communicate the way they need with the virtual connectivity and other things was compromised. So the cars go into a safety mode, which is let's not keep moving because we don't know what we need to know to do that.
31:56David Brown:So they just sort of sit there parked wherever they are? Yeah, but when I hear about something like that, I say, hey, here's a chance to learn. So I pretty much can guarantee if that ever happens again, Waymo's got that learning under their belt and they've got a solution for it that's going to handle it. Keep in mind also, David, when those kinds of things happen, traffic lights don't work. So that's going to add to the congestion. I don't know the exact solution, but I suspect Dimitri Dolgoff and his team at Waymo will find all kinds of ways to deal with that. You know, I was trying to think of a metaphor or some kind of analogy that I could use when I was thinking of explaining my own Waymo experience and trying to convey what you've said about the safety of the car.
32:40David Brown:And it seems like that's going to be one of the big impediments, certainly, the willingness to adopt, accept the future of autonomous vehicles. Does any sort of analogy come to mind for you, a way of sort of convincing people, hey, this is the future? Well, I think one would be air travel. The Wright brothers invent the airplane, and it wasn't too long after that where military and then commercial applications come along, and the safety record of those early aircrafts weren't very good. But it got to a point where people started flying, and they accepted the level of risk given the value that they received from having the opportunity to fly.
33:18So that might be one that you can look at. But I think the most compelling thing is for people to have an opportunity to ride in it, like you and your daughter. And I think that changed your perception of these issues. And not everybody gets that chance because there's not that many of these vehicles out there yet. So with that said, there's a whole lot of people. And I think it's human nature to fear things we don't understand. There's a lot of people weighing in on this debate who've never experienced an autonomous car. They haven't ridden in it. And what I focus on is very simple. Is the value going to be profound?
33:55I believe for a whole lot of people, there's going to be great value in moving around in their everyday life in an autonomous vehicle. Can I get that value at a price that makes sense for it? I believe that pricing is going to work just fine. And can companies deliver it at a cost and make money? That's the market tipping point. Value exceeds price, price exceeds cost. And I haven't seen anything, David, that suggests to me that's not going to happen with autonomous vehicles. We'll get to that point.
34:26David Brown:Even though I've only had a robo-taxi experience, the next level is going to be when the first autonomous vehicles are available to consumers. How far off do you think we're looking at? And in a way, aren't robo-taxis kind of icebreakers for this moment? Oh, robo-taxis are. I think we're within a five-year window of these tipping points. The interesting thing to me is the personal car. I was in the car business with GM for a long time, and well over 90 % of households have a car. Many households have two or three, and that's at$1.50 a mile. What happens if you can deliver that at$0.30 or$0.40 a mile?
35:03Even more people are going to want to have personal rides.
35:05David Brown:But you know, Larry, we don't think in terms of cost per mile over the length of a vehicle's lifetime. We're always thinking about what we're going to be paying down at the dealership, right? I get you, David. But given our concerns about affordability in general, even if robotaxis do nothing more than enable a lot of households to get by with one car instead of two, those households are going to put a meaningful amount of money in their pocket. Interesting. Because second car ownership comes with car insurance and maintenance and your payments on the car and all of that. In my book, Autonomy, I talk about the potential of a two-person electric pod that's autonomous.
35:47We concluded we could satisfy all the trips in Ann Arbor with a fleet of 18 ,000 autonomous vehicle pods replacing 120 ,000 personal cars. And that would take the cost per mile down on the order of about 30 cents. So that would be 15 cents per seat mile. So it excites me because this is one of these opportunities where you can have much better experiences at lower cost, safer, and bring these solutions forward to a lot more people, the people who can't drive because they're physically disabled or they can't afford to own a car.
36:22David Brown:So there'll be a trade-off at some point in which we are paying what looks like maybe a small pod. If you were to put side by side next to a fancier truck or something like that, you're going to say, I'm paying that much for this. On the other hand, you have all of these costs on the flip side, the insurance costs that go down, the energy costs that go down, all those prices that go down. We've just got to, if we're going to embrace the autonomous future as you see it, we're going to have to embrace that larger price per mile and not just the price per unit of transportation vehicle, however we see that today.
37:02David Brown:That's going to have to change. Yeah, I think the cost per mile will be lower in the autonomous electric vehicles versus your human-driven combustion vehicles today. I think it'll be lower if the vehicle is tailored to the typical kinds of trips that we make. and most trips are one and two people. 80 % of the trips have just one or two people in the car. But most of the cars have five seats. I did this calculation, David. It's intriguing. I said, you have 275 million cars in the United States with five seats each. That's 1.4 trillion seats. And those cars are parked 95 % of the time. So those seats are empty 95 % of the time.
37:40And when they're used, they're used at 1.8 people per trip. That is the equivalent of 12 ,000 University of Michigan football stadiums sitting empty at any point in time in terms of empty seats.
37:56David Brown:I see where you're going with this. So the future is not going to be the personal car and two pods in every garage. It doesn't have to be. In fact, I envision the vehicle as something that you wear, not just drive or ride in something you could park in your closet, not in your garage. We just can't keep making our everyday trips in vehicles that are designed for much more extreme applications than what we need on an everyday basis. I think we're going to get the crash out of this, which is going to be phenomenal. I think the cost per mile is going to be one-tenth what it is today, and it's going to be very disruptive to the auto industry.
38:36And I think much of what I'm talking about isn't 100 years away. I think it's 20, 30 years away.
38:42David Brown:Wow. So, closer and sooner than that, I understand that revenue from autonomous vehicles is supposed to reach like, what, one and a half, 1.6 trillion by 2030? Who are the big players in the autonomous game in addition to Waymo? Certainly, Zoox is important. Tesla is important. There's a middle mile company. When I made middle mile, it's like the travel between warehouses and stores, a company called Gatic, which is really important because they're finding a use case right now. You've got Aurora with over-the-road trucks along with Kodiak in China. They've got autonomous vehicles being used in 50 different cities for learning purposes, and they're moving very aggressively on this.
39:27David Brown:More aggressively than the U.S., you think? In terms of more players, I think, yes. I think they do want to make it safe. They're trying to calibrate the rollout with safety as well, but they enable learning in a different way. So I don't think it's responsible to conclude that the U.S. is ahead here and that we've got a corner on the brains as it comes to autonomous vehicles. I think other nations are going to pursue this, and I think it's an extremely important strategic technology. The know-how that we're talking about here for autonomous cars also applies to robots. It applies to drones and other things.
40:03I think autonomous vehicles are inevitable. Once they take the assumption that these machines can be autonomous, how will it redefine the way we live? And I think it gives us a chance to solve some very, very important challenges related to sustainability and equity and those kinds of things. So it's a huge enabler.
40:22David Brown:Larry Burns is a former consultant for Waymo and the author of Autonomy, the quest to build that driverless car and how it will reshape our world. Larry, it's been a real treat to get to talk with you on Business Wars. Thanks so much for joining us. Yeah, thank you for inviting me, David. I really enjoyed it. Coming up, what happens when all our systems depend on the same software and that software fails? That's next time on Business Wars.
40:55David Brown:From Wondery, this is Episode 3 of Waymo and the Rise of the RoboTaxis for Business Wars. I'm your host, David Brown. Kelly Kyle produced this episode. Our lead sound designer is Kyle Randall. Our producer is Tristan Donovan. Our audio engineer is Sergio Enriquez. Our managing producer is Desi Blaylock. Our senior producers are Jenny Bloom and Emily Frost. Karen Lowe is our producer emeritus. Our executive producers are Jenny Lauer Beckman and Marshall Louis for Wondery.
41:29David Brown:Follow Business Wars on the Audible app or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to all episodes of Business Wars ad-free by joining Audible.
From the publisher
Ever wondered what it’s like to ride in a Waymo? David and his daughter headed to downtown Austin to take their first trip in a driverless taxi. Together, they documented all the ups, downs, twists and turns. Later, author and former Waymo consultant Larry Burns rides shotgun to talk about how these autonomous vehicles will massively disrupt the auto industry — and why Larry believes the tipping point for making these cars mainstream falls within this decade.
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