The Future of Late Night TV, Jimmy Kimmel, and The First Amendment

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0:19Peter Kafka:From the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is Channels with Peter Kafka. That is me. I'm also the Chief Correspondent at Business Insider. Obviously, you know what we're talking about today. We're talking about the president of the United States and his regulators taking aim at Disney slash ABC and Jimmy Kimmel. You also know that Kimmel came back on the air Tuesday night. You have probably seen a clip or two about it at this point. I've also written about this story three times in the last week, so you're welcome to review those posts. The most recent one tries again to spell out why this is not the same as, say, Tucker Carlson losing his job at Fox.

0:58Peter Kafka:So what I wanted to do today is to talk to someone who can put all of this in context, not just the politics, but the mechanics and economics of late night TV and what late night TV does and doesn't mean in a world where everyone watches clips instead of shows. So I reached out to James Ponowazek. He is the TV critic at the New York Times. James is great to talk to about TV, obviously, but he's also become a Trump expert in the last decade since Trump is first and foremost a TV character. He even wrote a book about it in 2019, Audience of One, Donald Trump, Television and the Fracturing of America.

1:37Peter Kafka:This is still a relevant book in 2025. And I think that's kind of all we need to discuss in advance of this, right? Okay. So here's me talking to James Ponowozik. James Ponowozik, TV critic for The New York Times. Thanks for coming back on the show. Yeah, thanks for having me. A question for you. Did you watch Jimmy Kimmel's monologue on Tuesday Night Live or did you watch it on YouTube today? I watched it on YouTube. I never watched Late Night Live. I am part of the problem with respect to the decline late night ratings slash advertising revenue. why, why, why would any sane person watch late night or Saturday night live or when someone can else can stay up and watch things live and tell you the next morning the parts that you should just watch on streaming?

2:29Peter Kafka:The overwhelming majority of us are in the same boat and we will come back to that. And I was trying to think the last time I did this, but it's actually fairly recently is when Jon Stewart came back. I tuned in live for his first show and I've probably done that a few other times, but yes, everyone else can clip it. So now that you have seen Kimmel's monologue, I'm just wondering, maybe you're going to write about it for the Times as we're speaking. But what were your thoughts about how he handled the moment, both in terms of delivery and the content? You know, a lot of the content didn't surprise me.

3:02You know, I thought it was interesting that he was, you know, neither apologetic nor especially belligerent.

3:12Peter Kafka:The president of the United States made it very clear he wants to see me and the hundreds of people who work here fired from our jobs. Our leader celebrates Americans losing their livelihoods because he can't take a joke. He was. You know, one thing that I think Kimmel does well when he gets into this mode is that, you know, I think there is something that comes across kind of, you know, genuine about him. You know, if he gets emotional about a thing, you know, it feels like he is really emotional about it. He has gotten weepy on camera multiple times talking about his kid and other issues, and he did multiple times on Tuesday night.

3:56Yes. Yeah, exactly. I also thought it was striking how the monologue opened with a bit that kind of focused on not only the controversy around him and his show and his suspension, but sort of the insanity of the notion that this historic moment was about Jimmy Kimmel. you know uh which i i i credit him for having a sense of humor about and i think it like probably strikes us all a little bit this is still the guy from the man show exactly if you're watching

4:36Peter Kafka:clips of this like again most people the cold open starts uh of the show started with a cavalcade of of newscasters having the same conversation james and i are having right now this is a very important speech what does it mean and then it cuts to him and his sidekick and i'm I'm not quite sure what kind of outfits they were in. It was like some sort of rodent costume and a banana, if I recall correctly. I think him and Guillermo. But the point spelling it out that this we do fart jokes on TV. Yeah. And how is this happening? But it is happening. And as I'm sure you also know, Donald Trump, I think I think the chronology is Kimmel had already taped the show.

5:14Peter Kafka:But before the show aired, Trump put out his newest note saying ABC had had told me this was going to be canceled. I don't know what's going on. And basically, I'm I'm probably going to sue them again now anyway. I've already got 16 million dollars from them. We don't know if he'll actually do that. It does put the lie to the argument that Brendan Carr and others have been putting out recently that nothing that that that that the decision to suspend Kimmel last week was totally separate from politics and specifically the federal government. Yeah. Long, long preamble. How much? I mean, you you you you're a TV critic.

5:54Peter Kafka:You're not a political analyst, but those two things are the same distinction between the two these days. You have written specifically about Trump through the lens of TV. We talked about that in the past. I mean, if you had to handicap it, do you think this goes Trump drops this because Trump just moves on to the next thing that that gets a response from people? Or is this different because it's a TV host and Trump cares about TV? I don't think Donald Trump is done complaining about late night hosts. I mean, this has just been a constant refrain of his for, you know, over over years and years with with respect to this particular battle.

6:32Uh, you know, my guess would be that he, he usually has some sense of recognizing, you know, when it is better to move on to a different target for now. You know, you will notice, for instance, that, you know, he will he will he will go after certain targets when he senses blood in the water. But he didn't, for instance, really take off on South Park, which is a financially thriving show that has been just absolutely vicious toward him.

7:08Peter Kafka:Promoted by by the son of one of his big backers. Right. That's David Ellison, son of Larry Ellison, putting that show on the air. And that was probably not a fight that, you know, he was going to win. You know, so do I think that he or Brendan Carr, you know, this week are going to launch another drive to get more affiliates to drop Jimmy Kimmel live and try to push it off the air? I think not in the sense that there has been a sense over the past few days that the administration, at least notwithstanding this true social post, as you mentioned, was kind of trying to back off on this, like kind of trying to say, oh, we weren't really trying to get ABC to cancel Jimmy Kimmel.

7:55This was just we were voicing such and such.

7:58Peter Kafka:So, you know, when you have Ted Cruz saying, I don't I don't think this is a good idea that that's maybe a meaningful flag, maybe not. But but but you think there's a sense that even though it's the Trump White House, they still feel there's a line that they may have stepped over. Yeah. And that's not to say there aren't going to be posts like this, because, I mean, it's Donald Trump. He just said he can't necessarily help himself. You know, I honestly, honestly, I was kind of I was almost a little surprised his his lack of restraint as a commentator, historically notwithstanding that, you know, he would sort of give Jimmy Kimmel the satisfaction of immediately having kind of the Rumpelstiltskin stamping his feet response to to his his coming back on.

8:41But, you know, it seems to me that the administration is at least in a tactical retreat on this particular point right now. That said, you know, in that same post, I believe he made some reference to, oh, you know, the last time I went after ABC, referring to his lawsuit against ABC News, they gave me$16 million or whatever it was. And, you know, maybe I'll come back against them for more. I mean, I think that that told you if you needed to be told that he is certainly not done suing media outlets. If the mood strikes him that they're not necessarily done jawboning or taking other actions, because, you know, as I said, as I wrote a while ago in connection with one of these earlier run ins, when Paramount reached the settlement with him over his lawsuit with 60 Minutes.

9:40The one thing about these settlements is that they settle nothing. You know, it tells him and he pretty much said this here. We can go back to that cash register again. We did it once. We can do it again.

9:51Peter Kafka:And I bring this up a bunch, mostly because no one else does. And I think it's important. Disney settled with Trump for a lawsuit that he filed before he was president. but they settled once he'd been elected. Paramount, same thing, right? That suit was filed against election, about election interference. Again, Paramount settled. He has also sued Gannett, which owns the Des Moines Register, and Ann Seltzer, who's a famed pollster, because they produced a poll that inaccurately said Trump would lose in Iowa. He sued the New York Times, by the way, I should say, by means of disclosure here. I just wanted to point out that the Seltzer and Gannett suit and those folks don't have anything like the resources that Paramount and Disney or The Times have.

10:38Peter Kafka:They are still fighting those suits. So it's not that everyone caves. And also a reminder that even if Donald Trump doesn't talk about these things, they still are going on. I did a Google and I don't think Donald Trump has said a word about the Des Moines Register or Ann Seltzer this calendar year. But that's still a real lawsuit that they have to deal with. Yeah. And, you know, that is one of the reasons that, you know, litigiousness can work. You know, if nothing else, you are sending a message to people who need to be concerned about the amount of resources they have that, you know, even if you're in the right, you know, we might just sue you anyway.

11:15And, you know, it's going to be a contest of whose pockets are deeper, etc. One thing I want to get back to with regard to just, you know, Trump and Kimmel here and and, you know, the extent to which they they keep pursuing this, you know, while I doubt that Trump and the Trump administration long term lit up on Disney or ABC or media companies, you know, long term. I do think one thing you can say of Donald Trump is generally he he he understands the power of celebrity. I mean, that's what he's made out of is is celebrity. And sometimes this means that, you know, he feels that celebrities can be useful punching bags for him.

11:58You know, why is he still posting about Rosie O'Donnell decades and decades later? On the other hand, I would guess that at some level, he he must get somebody must get that, you know, part of the reason that this particular effort might have been an overreach is, you know, you can put an activist in jail and people who, you know, really, really pay attention to the news will notice that. Or you can sue a news outlet and, you know, some people who care about the news will know about that. But when you get a celebrity taken off the air, everybody knows about that. You know, you're the guy that you work with who never watches the news, knows about it.

12:50You know, your friends and family. It just it becomes a bigger thing. And a lot of people don't like it. and it casts a kind of spotlight that you don't necessarily want.

13:03Peter Kafka:It rings a bell for a normal person who can't tell you who Ann Seltzer is or where the Des Moines Register is published. It's published in Des Moines, Iowa. We'll be right back with James Ponte Wozniak, but first, a word from a sponsor.

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14:20Peter Kafka:else are watching it on the internet in clip form. So what is what is the point of a late night TV show in 2025 aside from fighting with Donald Trump? I mean, in part, it's it's prestige, you know, it's visibility, you know, prestige for for whom? For for the network, you know, for the brand. You know, it's why not to get into too much of a digression. James, this is a podcast. We can digress. All right. Then I will digress away. When Paramount and CBS said it was canceling Stephen Colbert for, you know, quote unquote, purely financial reasons, that seemed both believable, plausible and insufficient because it is not unimaginable in this day and age with the, you know, state of play that you just described that a show like this can be losing a lot of money.

15:19And yet, if a network wants to keep it on the air enough, it will, it will, you know, keep it on. It's, you know, because these, even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? So, you know, that is one attraction to, you know, a reason to continue to have this kind of show regardless.

15:58Peter Kafka:I understand that argument if you're one of those stars or their agents or frankly, the executives who gave them those contracts and have them on the air. Right. That they don't want to give up on this thing, that it's still meaningful, that that if they I used to live in Minnesota. And at one point, our hockey team was going to go away. And we said, well, if we don't have a hockey team, we're going to be a cold Omaha. Right. So, yeah, the networks don't want to be a cold Omaha. And the hockey team did go away, by the way. But does a viewer recognize that? Did they distinguish between Jimmy Kimmel and Hot Ones or anything else that comes to them through their feed that has someone interviewing someone and or making a joke or just getting their attention for a few minutes?

16:41Peter Kafka:Does that distinction matter to a normal? I don't know how much it does anymore. And that distinction is probably becoming less and less important. But if you're a legacy brand, you got to hope that you can maintain that legacy. You know, if you just decide as ABC that it doesn't really matter anymore if people know what ABC is or what's on ABC, you know, you might as well pack it in at that point. And do you think I mean, and I guess this is a variation on that question, but does Jimmy Kimmel saying something on broadcast TV aside from this week, is that more or less important than something Tucker Carlson says on his Twitter show?

17:24Peter Kafka:Or again, we can sub in anybody else. Does that is that meaningful politically? Is it only meaningful politically because Donald Trump pays attention to television? it's meaningful you know i don't know if it's meaningful in the sense of moving the electoral needle you know the the the the you know the sort of late night you know late night's influence on politics whether it's a leading or lagging indicator like we've had that debate since johnny carson and jay leno i think it's meaningful in the sense that even as these shows have gotten more political, they are still reaching different audiences than somebody who's tuning in to Tucker Carlson or, you know, Pod Save America or whatever.

18:15You are still reaching an audience that, you know, is tuning in for, you know, the banana costume, you know, or the celebrity interview for for the whole entertainment package. And ironically, you know, again, there are almost no big tents anymore. But among all the smaller tents, it is one of the things that is more big tent in the sense of gathering people with different interests.

18:46Peter Kafka:Right. And this is still the story of TV, right? The audience are diminishing. Advertisers are still throwing money at them, in part because it's harder to find any other conglomerations of audience. You know, oddly, you know, as you know, I'm sure with somebody as somebody who knows a lot about advertising and how this this sort of thing works. In a way, the more difficult specific audiences are to reach, the more valuable per capita these outlets can be. Because if you can only, you know, if there's a smaller total audience watching this thing, but it is the only or best way to reach this group that you're trying to reach, then you are still going to, to some extent, pay for that.

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20:44Peter Kafka:And we're back. And how do we think about the fact that so Nextar and Sinclair, the broadcast station owners that that were, you know, came out against Kimmel last week and are still not showing his show now, even though it's back on the air. That's about what we keep hearing about a quarter of the broadcast audience. But as we've also said, the overwhelming majority of people who are consuming Jimmy Kimmel are not watching it on television. So does it matter if those affiliates say we're not putting on the air? It matters, but it matters less, I think. You know, I think that if this was 1995 and you're talking about, you know, 20 percent, a quarter of your affiliates taking a certain show off the air, that's a dagger because, you know, that's how you're making all your money.

21:31It's just it is not as big a percentage of that. You know, it's not as big a slice of the admittedly diminished pie as it used to be. And that probably made this decision, while clearly not easy for Disney, perhaps easier.

21:53Peter Kafka:Put your TV critic hat back on slash historian hat because you spend time going back and looking at how this stuff has worked over time. Where does Kimmel's monologue last night sort of fit in the pantheon of big late night TV moments? The big monologues I can think of are either like a host, you know, last show. So that's a big deal. Or sometimes, you know, Jon Stewart or someone coming back after 9-11, a big tragedy. I've seen other folks reference Jack Parr, the original Tonight Show host. I was not around for Jack Parr's time. I don't think you were either. Where do you where do you slot this in?

22:32Peter Kafka:It seems like a big deal. Then again, if you watched it, maybe less so. No, I think it is a big one because, you know, this event, I think, was a legitimately big event, both in TV history terms and in terms of the politics of the moment. You know, it also makes me think of, you know, there are even nonpolitical monologues that would fit that category. uh say david letterman coming back after his heart attack um you know where it is it is both notable for this program that was knocked off the air coming back and addressing this big controversy and uh this host who an audience had a parasocial relationship with and thought they might never see again, at least, you know, if not permanently, then in this context, coming back and talking about it, you know.

23:33And who also. And there's recency bias here.

23:35Peter Kafka:And Letterman's persona as well, right, was like aloof and distanced and sort of puzzled by the whole thing. And a big thing about that monologue, now that I'm remembering, was him sort of breaking down and thanking his doctors again in a way that a normal human recognizes as normal human emotion, but one you don't normally get to see on television. and that you certainly were not used to seeing from David Letterman. Yeah. Okay. James Ponowozik, if I had to make you guess if we're still talking about the story in a week, what do you think? I'm guessing probably not unless, you know, another shoe drops or, you know, there is either a new controversy or something.