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  3. 448 Mid-term Madness, Oprah or George Clooney Running For President? with Political Pollster & Advisor Lee Hartley Carter
Christopher Lochhead Follow Your Different™

30 Jul 2026 · 1h 11m · 26 chapters

Episode artwork

448 Mid-term Madness, Oprah or George Clooney Running For President? with Political Pollster & Advisor Lee Hartley Carter

In short

Midterm and 2028 election outlook through the lens of political communication, polling, and persuasion—plus how “facts vs feelings” shape voter decisions.

Guest

Lee Hartley Carter, political communication strategist and pollster. CEO of Carter Intelligence Group (recently launched). Author of Persuasion: Convincing Others When Facts Don’t Seem to Matter. Appears on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, and other news commentary shows.

Key claims

  • U.S. politics is increasingly anti-establishment; voters trust outsiders and people who “own their story” and set the conversation.
  • Both parties are reacting to each other’s messaging; “the party who’s reacting is losing.”
  • Midterms are not a “blue wave” despite unpopular war in Iran, high gas prices, and low presidential approval; generic ballot leads are within margin of error.
  • Democrats’ favorability is extremely low; winning depends on message/story, not just presidential approval.
  • Voters are emotional, not rational; “feelings don’t care about your facts.”

Notable examples

  • Trump’s rise: branding and outsider framing; Hillary’s “qualified” messaging failed.
  • Left’s rise: socialist/affordability messaging (e.g., NYC pied-à-terre tax) resonates with “system is rigged” anger.
  • LA mayoral race example: voters reportedly favored a candidate promising basic fixes over incumbents tied to fires/homelessness issues.
  • Prediction: Rubio likely wins the GOP nomination; Oprah/George Clooney speculation is discussed but not endorsed.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:01

Introduction to Lee Hartley Carter

Host introduces guest Lee Hartley Carter and her background.

“Well, it's summer in America, and thankfully, most people are not paying too much attention to the upcoming elections.”
2:44

Lee's Leap into Entrepreneurship

Lee discusses her decision to start her own company and the motivation behind it.

“And I understand congratulations are in order.”
3:36

The Rise of New Startups

Discussion on the surge in new business formations and its implications.

“And so what was the impetus for you to say, if not now, never, and I'm going to go for it?”
4:59

The Spirit of Entrepreneurship

Exploration of the positive community among entrepreneurs and their impact.

“It's the greatest time in modern history.”
8:06

Political Landscape Overview

Lee shares insights into the current political climate and communication shifts.

“Yeah, you know, I'm not sure I believe that bullshit.”
9:06

Rise of Non-Traditional Candidates

Discussion on how non-traditional candidates are reshaping political dynamics.

“You sit at a very unique intersection, I think, in American life, right?”
12:02

Addressing Voter Concerns

The importance of addressing valid voter concerns in political campaigns.

“And nontraditional candidates running in nontraditional ways are having a huge impact and disrupting the side.”
14:00

The Shift in Political Messaging

Explore how both parties are adapting their messaging strategies leading up to the midterms.

“not against Donald Trump and the radical right and the fascists and this whole thing that's going to come across, but run for the people that he says he's going to fight for.”
20:22

The Age of Rage

Discussing the public's anger and the left's response to it in political discourse.

“We've seen enough elections say that this is what's happening.”
22:22

Midterm Predictions and Polling Insights

Insights into polling data and predictions for the upcoming midterm elections.

“And so what's you have as educated a guess, arguably, as anybody in the United States, based on today's date, which is July 24th, 2026.”
Show all 26 chapters
26:54

Facts vs. Feelings in Politics

Exploring the tension between factual information and emotional responses in political discussions.

“I'm going to say right after Labor Day, dedicated two months, solid message.”
28:01

Understanding the Democratic Socialist Platform

Explore the implications of the Democratic Socialist platform and its reception.

“But then if you see when Carville comes out recently losing his mind over the Democratic Socialists, I mean, if you go to their platform, and I have, read it.”
28:50

The Power of Emotions in Politics

Discuss how emotions often outweigh facts in political decision-making.

“Well, I actually think what's true is feelings don't care about your facts.”
31:00

Youth Engagement and Voting Behavior

Analyze how young people's feelings influence their voting patterns.

“And when something doesn't feel right, we ask for more facts.”
33:45

The Impact of Political Messaging on Youth

Examine how political messages resonate differently with young voters.

“social media with their signs and everything, but do they actually vote?”
36:19

The Influence of Educational Institutions on Politics

Discuss the political leanings of educational institutions and their effects.

“And so I think the right really needs to take that back up because for young people to change parties is actually pretty hard.”
38:09

Term Limits in American Politics

Debate the necessity of term limits for elected officials in the U.S.

“So right now, I mean, is there any chance that the Republicans don't lose at least one branch of government here?”
42:00

The Case for Government Service

Discussing the importance of experienced individuals in government roles.

“But if you're a successful business person, maybe you're a successful scientist, whatever you are, go be in the government as an act of service.”
45:50

Predictions for Presidential Candidates

Speculating on potential candidates for the next presidential election.

“But if you had to look into your crystal magical ball or balls, I don't know how many you have, and you are to look forward to the next presidential election.”
48:20

The Appeal of Marco Rubio

Examining what makes Marco Rubio a strong candidate compared to others.

“And I think also the memes, you know, all of the memes of Rubio doing every job under the sun, you know, like he has to be the Pope or whatever.”
51:40

Authenticity in Politics

Debating the importance of authenticity in political figures.

“there somebody else running the government?”
54:00

The Challenges of Female Politicians

Discussing the perceptions and challenges faced by female political candidates.

“And when you have a doubt about someone is when it happens.”
56:00

Authenticity in Political Campaigns

The discussion revolves around the authenticity of political candidates, particularly female candidates, and the challenges they face.

“And then she tried to have some conversations.”
58:00

Potential Candidates for the Presidency

Exploration of the possible candidates for the presidential election, including notable figures like AOC and Gavin Newsom.

“And so do we have a situation, and this would be kind of very interesting if you think about it, where it's Rubio versus AOC?”
1:00:10

The Search for a Black Swan Candidate

A look into the idea of recruiting an outsider or 'black swan' candidate to challenge the political landscape, discussing famous personalities like Oprah.

“And it's sort of, I mean, an interesting place because I believe in many of the things the two parties have to say.”
1:03:49

The State of the Democratic Party

Discussion on the current dynamics within the Democratic Party and the need for a candidate who can unify and disrupt the existing structures.

“If Bill Clinton were to try to run for president today on the Democratic ticket, what do you think happens to him?”
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Transcript

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0:00Thanks for pressing play. This is Christopher Lochhead, Follow Your Different, the oddcast for entrepreneurs, marketers, category designers, creator capitalists, and anyone who wants to become legendary by being different. And I'm your host. Now, as you know, the business media covers companies. At Category Pirates, we cover, you guessed it, categories. You see, Category Pirates is for people who don't want a better job in an old category. They want to create their own job in a new one. Or they don't want to keep working at a company. They want to category design a new market for the one they want to start.

0:38Because different beats better every time. As a matter of fact, Category Kings earn 76 % of the total value that gets created in their markets. And every week at Category Pirates, we show you how to do it. with the receipts. Subscribe today. Go to CategoryPirates.com. That's CategoryPirates.com. Well, it's summer in America, and thankfully, most people are not paying too much attention to the upcoming elections. And that said, we thought it would be a very cool time to get in front of it, to get some powerful insights from a woman with an insider seat. Will there be a blue wave in the coming midterms?

1:19Or will the GOP hold the House and Senate? Could they even pick up some seats? Who knows? And then as we look beyond this year into 2028, who will run for the Democrats? Who will run for the GOP? Is Oprah or George Clooney going to pull a Donald Trump and come in from out of nowhere as a super famous person and secure the Democratic nomination and lead them back to the White House? Or who's going to run for the GOP? Will it be J.D. Vance, the vice president? Or will it be Marco Rubio? Or again, who knows? Maybe a dark horse, maybe a black swan. We get into all of it and more with our special guest, the legendary Lee Hartley Carter.

2:06You see, Lee is one of America's top political communication strategists and pollsters. She's the CEO of her own company, which she recently started called Carter Intelligence Group. And she's the author of the legendary bestseller Persuasion, Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter. And you might get a kick out of her and I talking about facts and feelings during this episode. You've probably seen Lee on TV. If you're into news commentary shows at all, you've seen her on CNN, Fox, MSNOW and others. This is a legendary conversation. about a critical topic with a legendary gal. So now, hey-ho, let's go.

3:03Lee, it sure is great to see you. It's great to see you too. It's been a while. And I understand congratulations are in order. You recently went out on your own. So I'd love to hear about that. Yeah, it's a big year for me. I decided to make the leap and bet on myself after staying in the same place for about 20 years. It just felt like the moment to do it. The world is changing so fast. And here we are. And I wanted to be able to be nimble and innovate and go out and try to do something on my own. And I'm loving it. It's been great. And so what was the impetus for you to say, if not now, never, and I'm going to go for it?

3:41You know, there were so many different factors that led to it. I think it was partly like, I don't know, half midlife crisis, but half just looking at. You're not at midlife. You look like you're what, 23, 24 years old. You're so sweet. Half, you know, if you don't do it now, when are you going to do it? And then the other part of it really was the world is changing so fast in communications and research. with AI. And I see so many people doing similar things with synthetic audiences and other kinds of things. And I wanted to try to chase it in a different way. I had some big ideas and I decided to go for it.

4:17So looking at how to communicate more effectively, both with humans and with AI. So not as AI as a replacement for humans, but as its own audience. And it's really cool. Oh, I can't wait to talk about all of that. Now, I don't have the data right in front of me, but we've been working on a big piece about how essentially entrepreneurship is, was, and always will be the great American advantage. And when you dig into the data, it's actually stunning. All the jobs, all of them are created by new startups. And right now in the United States of America, we are having a renaissance in new company formations.

5:00It's the greatest time in modern history. As a matter of fact, right now we are averaging almost half a million new business starts a month in the United States. And I don't have the data right in front of me, but we've been working on this. So I know this is directionally rightly. Interestingly enough, you know, in our country is one where we shit on things that we don't like, but man, we don't celebrate enough. In the data, here's what we're seeing. There is a disproportionate number of black and brown people and a disproportionate number of women starting businesses. And I think that's very exciting.

5:35And so I'm curious what you think about that as a woman who just started a business. You know, I know a lot of people have done the same thing over the last couple of years. I think we have so much more flexibility and so much more ability to do it. And I've got to say that the community of entrepreneurs, the people who go out there and do it, are so uplifting. willing to help each other out like I can't believe people that I've worked with over the years who have offered me up advice and help and introducing me to new clients and are just here for each other and lifting each other up and it's like I was in an environment for a long time where I you don't feel like you're lifted up and encouraged in that same way and seeing that spirit and helping each other and trying to create jobs for more people and more opportunities it's just it's it's awesome and i think it is it is the heart of america for sure well and it's it's all in the data all the new jobs are created by new companies virtually all of them and uh a disproportionate amount of gdp growth and all of that is what fuels american exceptionalism and when you look at the entrepreneur numbers in the united states versus our peer countries it's not even close per per 100 000 it's not even close canada has fallen off a cliff europe has fallen off a cliff.

6:56And even in the Asian countries where their GDPs have been relatively strong, entrepreneurship is not something that's celebrated. And so America's huge advantage is this was a country founded by, yes, immigrants, but really pioneers, settlers, right? People who came here to do something radically different in their lives. And so there's something about that that is systemic in the American system that is, when you look at the data, highly unusual. And interestingly enough, if the data is rightly more women starting business today than ever before. And I would also guess that there's something about entrepreneurs that is much more optimistic than a lot of the country is right now.

7:40I mean, the spirit of an entrepreneur, you've got to both believe in the best and believe that great things are going to happen. and you've got to be betting on the future. And when I look at so much of the data out there about people saying that the worst is ahead of us and our best years are behind us and we don't believe in the future, that's so sad to me because being out there and doing this, like, yeah, let's go get it. Let's do this. And that is the American spirit. Let's go get it. Yeah, you know, I'm not sure I believe that bullshit. I mean, we are at a place now where we've never had more new company starts than ever.

8:13And to your point, every new company start, whether it's a Silicon Valley backed by the top VCs in the world, or whether it's one young guy hanging out a shingle like I did at 18 years old, or what you just did, starting a company is a radical act of optimism. You must believe in the future or you never do it. And you must believe in the country that you're doing it in, that you can go out, that from a structural perspective, you're not going to get screwed over. And that from a societal perspective, that people aren't going to laugh at you, that they're going to celebrate you or support you and say, oh, geez, after 20 years, you went out on your own.

8:53That's great. As opposed to, what are you insane? Why don't you go get a safe job at the DMV? Bless your, like, yes, preach it. Absolutely. Now, I also want to talk about, of course, politics. You sit at a very unique intersection, I think, in American life, right? Communications and politics. And like you said, right off the top, there's probably never been more change in those domains than there is right now. And so just tell me about the landscape that you see, the political landscape and the landscape of, you know, political marketing, political communications, campaigns, the whole thing. So we are living in a moment that is incredibly anti-establishment.

9:40We don't trust big institutions. We don't trust big companies. We don't trust anybody to do right by us. We trust ourselves. We trust our friends. And we trust outsiders who are going to fight for people like us. And when you look at what's happened over the last 10 years in politics, what happened? On the right, the rise of Donald Trump, a political outsider who came to blow things up and drain the swamp. He came out there with a strong message, and he didn't do it in the traditional ways. He owned his story, like in ways that nobody's owned their story. And he owns his branding and his messaging.

10:16And if you don't know what his message is, by now you've been hiding under a rock because that is what has happened. Now, fast forward to right now. We are watching the left wrestle with what they're going to be when, you know, in the future. and there's this rise in socialism. There was a poll that just came out this week where 52 % of Democrats support socialism, which as someone who grew up in the 80s and 90s, it's kind of hard for me to even imagine because to us, socialism and communism was the enemy. Tear down that wall. I mean, think about the Rocky movies and go back to everything. You know, the communists were always the enemy and it was a fail.

10:53James Bond. There you go. One after the other. But here we are. The most spy movie ever was about us taking down the communists. Exactly right. And here we are, not that long later, and this is where we are. And I hear people saying how danger it is. And I get why people feel that way. But I also think it's really important that we take a step back and understand why this is happening. And it's the same reason that the rise of Donald Trump happened on the right is why this is happening on the left. because people are tired of feeling like the system's rigged against them. Things are broken. They can't get ahead.

11:32Their dollar doesn't go as far as it used to. Everybody makes them promises. Nobody keeps them. If you sound like a politician, I'm gonna tune you out. I need to hear somebody who's gonna talk to me totally differently and empower me. And the socialist party, the Democrat socialists, how we wanna define what they are, have a very clear message. They're gonna make things affordable. They're gonna fight for the little guy. They're gonna go after. I mean, look at what they're doing in New York City with the pied-a-terre tax. They're going after millionaires and billionaires. And it's resonating because it's giving people a voice to something that they're so tired of.

12:05And so that's where we are right now. And nontraditional candidates running in nontraditional ways are having a huge impact and disrupting the side. Like one after another, you're seeing the establishment go down while somebody that nobody expects takes the stage. Well, I mean, what we saw Mom Donnie do in New York is a stunner because even if you take all the politics out, whether you like them or don't or what have you, you have a guy who's in his early 30s, who's never had anything remotely close to a management or executive job whatsoever. And so there's literally zero qualification to run the second largest city or is it the largest?

12:47I can't remember. What's bigger, New York or L.A.? anyway, it's the financial capital of the world regardless. And so we're going to have a 32-year-old, 34-year-old guy who's never had any experience running anything, but we're putting him in there because we like what he said about affordability and rent control and groceries. Yeah, it's happening. And when you look at underneath everything, and this is what I'm always trying to figure out, why do people do what they do? It doesn't make sense to me. Like on its face, It shouldn't happen. A 30-something-year-old former rap star from another place comes in and captures the city's vote, attention, heart, all the things that have happened.

13:27It should never have happened on paper. But when you look at the underneath and the why, it's really straightforward. He spoke to people's truths. He spoke to their problems, and he came up with not a laundry list of solutions, but just a couple that resonated. People think the rent's gotten too damn high, so he's going to fix it. Screw those landlords. It's unfair that they're making 10 % profit. Can you imagine that they're not entitled to that? That makes no sense. I can't afford my rent. And he's just speaking to their truth. And it was so interesting because he's one of the few in a long time that's run not against Donald Trump and the radical right and the fascists and this whole thing that's going to come across, but run for the people that he says he's going to fight for.

14:11And he's done it. And every candidate that's like him is doing the same thing. They're not running against Donald Trump and talking about how scary he is, though they will. That's just not the centerpiece of what they're doing. And when I watch what the right is doing right now, it's like they're following the left's playbook of 2024, which is to say, are you crazy? How could you possibly vote for somebody like that? They're going to ruin our country. They're going to take us down. You must be dumb. It's like the worst thing you can do because nobody is ever going to change their mind by being called stupid or being called all these things.

14:44It's like, no, these people have valid concerns. Speak to them. And by the way, that's what you did that got Donald Trump into power. You spoke to these people who had no hope, who felt like they were getting left behind. You made promises to them and you won. That's a formula that works and it's working right now for the left. And I think we're going to start to see Republicans changing tack pretty soon as we're getting closer to the midterm. If they don't, I think the midterms are going to be a disaster. But I'm starting to see, you know, some strength in Republican measures, just not only against communism and socialism.

15:17It's easy to get sidetracked. I think a lot of Republicans are shy to talk about the economy because they feel like they're responsible for it right now because they're on charge. But by not talking about it, they're letting the Democrats run away with that narrative. And when you look at the polling, Republicans always won on the economy. And now for the first time, we're seeing Democrats ink away at that. up by two. And certainly on affordability and cost of living, they're winning because they're talking about it. It's fascinating. And I want to get to this point because this is something that I felt and I'm nowhere near the political expert that you are.

15:49But when Trump came from the minute he came down the escalator, I'll never forget, I was actually in Manhattan with my wife. We were there with her sister and her husband and we were getting ready for a nice day in the city. And Kerry was getting ready in the bathroom and I had the TV on, do an email or whatever. And there he was coming down the escalator. And then he started to do the speech. And I'm sort of half listening to the speech. And then I'll never forget screaming at Kerry going, Kerry, Trump just called Mexicans rapists. It's like, oh, my God, this is craziness, right? So crazy. So crazy.

16:26So over the top, right? And I think a lot of people thought, oh, well, Hillary Clinton's going to wipe her ass with this guy, right? Her intellect, she's so poised, she's so experienced, she's, quote unquote, the most qualified person to ever run for the job. And to your point, Lee, the Democrats completely and totally dismissed him and what was driving him. And now it seems insane to me that the Republicans did not learn from this, that it was exactly the Democrats dismissing him, exactly the Democrats taking the bait and talking about him. Well, now the Republicans are doing all the marketing for the Democratic Socialists of America by talking about them.

17:16You know, I'll listen to a Republican commentators podcast and they'll talk about all these candidates. They'll name them by name. They'll talk about Hassan. What's his last name? Piker Kiker. What's that guy's name that everybody's excited about now? All these people on the far left who are saying abolish the White House and abolish the police and all these crazy things. But they're giving them heat by talking about them. Absolutely. I do think that what the left is doing is what Trump did in reverse, and what Republicans are doing is the reverse of what Democrats did. But it is, and I, you watch it and you just get like, my mind is blown a little bit.

18:00Because when you look at the shift in what happened in the Republican Party over the last 10, 11 years, suddenly they became the party of the working man. They became the party where people felt accepted, you know, not judged. They were anti-establishment. They were not the party of the elites, all of that. And now you look at what's happening on the left and they're following that same playbook and Republicans, instead of defining it for themselves and reclaiming their territory, are just responding to the Democrats. And I always say the party who's reacting is losing. This is so right on the money.

18:37And the genius of the tagline, Make America Great Again, is that he set his flag down on that and everyone else had to respond to it. Right? And people don't remember this. In his first campaign with Hillary Clinton, what were the two campaigns about? One was MAGA, Make America Great Again. And most people forget what Hillary's slogan was. Her slogan, of course, was I'm with her. And it had the H with the arrow in it. Well, this is the classic brand versus category mistake. Categories are about customers, their problems, their opportunities. Brands are about our product, our company, right? So their branding was Hillary is the most qualified person to ever run.

19:32Vote for Hillary. I'm with her. Hey-ho, let's go. And his was make America great again, which is about who? The customer, not about her. And so it's so interesting right now that the far left is taking over the Democratic Party. I want to get into that, too, because I've been seeing what some of the mainstream Democrats have been saying right now, and they're now talking about how terrified they are of them. But we'll get to that in a second. But the far left is going extreme, but they're speaking to these points, these issues that people care about. And now the mainstream right is taking the bait the same way the left did when the right did it to them.

20:16Absolutely. And I just don't know why they're not by now. Right. I could see the first race that goes this way. They're like, oh, this is crazy. You've got to respond to it. But by now we've seen enough primaries. We've seen enough runoffs. We've seen enough elections say that this is what's happening. And if you don't understand why, there's something wrong with you. Because guess what? It's really obvious to everybody else. You run for people. If you can't, right? I mean, in marketing and communications, we all know this. If you can't ask, what's it do for me? What's it mean for me? Like, what's, I don't care how qualified you are.

20:54In fact, when I talk to voters out there about qualifications, they're like, well, I hope you're ready to, you know, ready on day one because you're going to be president. Like, I hope you have experience because you're whatever everybody does. And by the way, if you have too much experience, that's a bad thing. So it's like, it can never be about the person. And it's about what I believe about myself as a result of it. And the far left right now or the socialist side of the Democrat Party is actually they're laying claim. They're saying, you know what, they're naming something that is very real.

21:28So this whole moment that we're in is we called it the age of rage. Like everybody's just so angry and they feel like everything's just unfair. The system's rigged against them. The rich keep getting richer. I get left behind. And the far left is like, you know what? We're going to name it, right? We're going to say it's unfair. And we're going to fight back. We're going to go after those big companies, those billionaires who make way too much money. Everybody, it's just, we get it. Things are unfair. We're going to make it fair. Let's have a level playing field. And they're speaking to a real truth.

22:05And Americans, a lot of them are saying, you know what? Yes, it is unfair. Now, there's a lot of people are listening to me saying, yeah, the system's unfair, but I don't want you to make it fair. Right. I don't want you to be the arbiter of fairness. But it is something that's really interesting. They're staking claim and everybody else is reacting to it. It's exactly right. Category defining. And so what's you have as educated a guess, arguably, as anybody in the United States, based on today's date, which is July 24th, 2026. What's your best guess as to what happens in the American midterms?

22:42OK, it's a really it should be an easy question for me to answer. Right. I've got all the research, all the data. But there's a few things that don't make sense to me right now. Number one, at a midterm where another party is entirely in power, generally speaking, the other party has a huge, huge favorite. You know, it's like at this point, it should be 15 points ahead. It should be 20 points ahead, especially when we have this unpopular war in Iran. We've got gas prices really high. People are feeling pinched. And yet the Democrats in generic ballots are only ahead by margin of error polls. This is not a landslide.

23:22And so what that says to me is this is really anybody's race because conventional wisdom would tell me that the Democrats should run away with it. And yet they're not. Especially with an unpopular war. And let's call it spade to spade, unpopular president. I mean, what's the current best on, you know, your best read of the data? What's Trump's approval rating right now, approximately? There was one poll that came out this week at 30 percent. I don't think that's right. I think it's about 38 percent, but it's low. It's arguably below 40. Yeah. Right. So you would think in a situation where we have a war, where we have high gas prices, and a president who's somewhere in the high 30s at best on approval rating, that the Dems might be a blue wave.

24:09But we're not seeing that, at least in the early data. I didn't check this morning. this is another part of your world that's different, a lot more different than the last time we spoke, the rise of Kaushii and a poly market and all these prediction markets. So what are they saying about where we stand right now? Are they saying it's a game of jump ball? I mean, it's not a clear cut the way as I've been tracking it. And I think they actually look at a lot more than just pollsters do. I think pollsters, you know, and I'm a researcher, so I'll put myself in this basket. And part of the reasons why I went out and did my own thing is that we have to look at so many more factors because we don't just decide, do I like somebody or not?

24:50This isn't a favorability game, right? And it used to be. Who do I like? Like the game used to be like, who do I want to have a beer with the most? That kind of a thing was like the biggest indicator. That's how Bush beat Gore, right? That was the conversation. I mean, you always talk about category setting. I'm like the one who's setting the category. The one who's setting the conversation is the one who's going to win. And Donald Trump does that. He always sets the conversation. And everybody else reacts to it. Why isn't he setting it now for the midterms? You know, I think we're going to see him come out pretty soon and do some more on that.

25:25If I were him, too, I would be doing a run after Labor Day, frankly. Because no one's going to pay attention now? I don't think. I think a lot of people are paying attention to gas prices right now. I think a lot of people are paying attention to what's happening in Iran. They've got to wrap that up so that they can get out there and deliver the message on what the people want. Because right now there's a lot of distractions and I think a lot of fractured attention. And I think a dedicated campaign. And it's got to be led by Trump that everybody follows suit because he's the only one that really does it.

25:59When you listen to so many people on the right right now, they're just reacting to socialism. And Trump does that, too. I mean, we've heard his speech where he talks about how dangerous it is and all that kind of stuff. And that's and he attacks. So I'm not trying to say it's not about attacking, but also just setting that clear vision for what it means and that he's the one that does that. Now, we're also talking about the favorability of the president. But what we're not talking about is the favorability of Democrats and Republicans. And everybody's celebrating like, oh, Trump, 30 percent favorability is this amazing.

26:28It means the Democrats. Well, guess what Democrats favorability is at? It's like 10 percent. Like it is so bad. Is it really? Generic Democrats at 10 %? It's in the tens and Republicans aren't any better because it is no longer. We don't trust the parties. We don't trust the whole. It's about creating a message and a story that we're all going to believe in again. And the Republicans haven't done it. So my guess is it's going to come. I'm going to say right after Labor Day, dedicated two months, solid message. And if I were running it, that's what I would be telling them to do. Because if you look back at midterms and you remember that most of us don't remember them.

27:11But if you think back, OK, 2016, Trump won. And 2018, Democrats took over. What did they run on? They ran on health care. Every one of them. Health care, health care, health care. Like it was the one thing that Trump didn't deliver on that they could talk about. And they did it with discipline. Republicans, after Obama in 2010, they came out. Discipline, takeover. If you're going to win in the midterm, when there's all this, it has to be a singular focus. The Democrats, by the way, seem to have it on the left left, but moderate left seems to be on a death match right now with the left, so they might end up killing themselves and crossing it out because the left could be running on affordability and they could be running on a whole bunch of, I actually think it should be a one issue, a one issue midterm.

27:59Affordability, right? Affordability. But then if you see when Carville comes out recently losing his mind over the Democratic Socialists, I mean, if you go to their platform, and I have, read it. It's right there. They're not. I know. There's nothing hiding about it. They want to get rid of the presidency. They want to get rid of the Supreme Court. They want to get rid of police. They want to open the jails. They want to get rid of borders. These are not, when I hear myself say them, I sound like Alex Jones to me. And I have to remind myself, hey, Lockhead is not a crazy fucking person. Far from it.

28:36But this is what's on their website. And yet somehow people, everybody looks by that, right? And so this is a big thing I want to ask you about. So we all grew up hearing this expression, facts don't care about your feelings. Well, I actually think what's true is feelings don't care about your facts. Yes. Preach it. Because look at what happened in L.A. We had three candidates running. One who was responsible for the fires and is arguably one of the most incompetent people you've ever met. I mean, you just have to watch her behavior. in Karen Bass. Rahman, who was essentially the homeless czar who increased homelessness and looked to be in cahoots with the homeless industrial complex.

29:32And then you got a guy who, frankly, I didn't know who he was, Spencer Pratt. I'm not a Hollywood celebrity guy, so I didn't... You weren't watching reality TV? No. So I didn't know anything about whatever that, whatever fucking, and apparently he was an asshole. I have no idea. but yet angelinos want to put in either the woman responsible for there being no water in the fire hydrants or the woman responsible for the increase in homelessness and not the reality tv star who's talking sense now maybe he's a shitty candidate maybe he won't be able to do it i have no idea but he was the one saying hey wait a minute i don't care about this bullshit i want fires to stop.

30:14I want the roads to work. I want basic stuff happening. I want crime down. I want to deal with the homeless, like basic stuff that most average Americans go. Yes, we want a functioning city. Forget about anything else. And yet and yet he lost. And so tell me about this insight around my feelings don't care about your facts and I will vote for the person who burned down the city and or the person who increased the homeless problem just because I feel better voting for them. Yeah. The book that I wrote that actually is how we met, right? When I wrote the book, it was called Persuasion, Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter.

30:53It just gets right at that. This is why I've been dying to talk to you, Lee. Human beings are emotional beings. We're not rational beings. And when something doesn't feel right, we ask for more facts. We ask for more data. But when something feels right, we don't seek any information to prove or disprove it. We are very, very emotional. We are gut-based decision makers, even those that are really rational. And I think there's something to be said about people who try to communicate or change people's minds with this notion of like, if people only knew X, Y, Z fact, then they would think differently.

31:35That never works. Have you ever had a debate with somebody you completely disagree with and be like, but do you know this fact and this fact and that fact? It never works. You actually have to reach somebody where they are so that they're willing to be open to whatever story you're telling. And that's how you do it. Now, in the meantime, we've got this this moment where people are willing to overlook, as you said, look at the socialist website right now and what they're talking about, which is by and large anti-American at best. I was going to say fucking insane, but OK, I'll go with anti-American.

32:07I'm trying to think of the nicest way to say it. But we've had, I mean, look at what happened in Maine with Plattner. People are willing to support somebody who had a Nazi tattoo and a questionable background. And you can talk about Donald Trump, too, and things that he's done that have made people not trust him. But people are willing to put that apart. Well, what is, you know, what is Donald Trump doing having Nick Fuentes come visit him? What the hell is that about? I wish I knew. Right? It's like, you know, we talk about Democrat versus Republican. I think where most of us are is we want not crazy.

32:47That's what we want. We want not crazy. We want not crazy. But we also at this point, right, there are so many people who are out there saying that things aren't right. I'm willing to bet on something that doesn't seem like anything I've known before, right? Because the system has let a lot of folks down. And really, in particular, when you look at young people right now, they have no faith. They're not getting jobs. The world is changing so fast. They don't feel like they're going to get ahead. They feel like they're never going to have the life that their parents did. And they're pissed off.

33:23And so they're willing to vote for candidates that make little sense. otherwise. But do young people really vote? I mean, we hear this a lot and we think, OK, well, the young people are going to come out and vote this time. And with Obama, he was mobilizing the young people or with Bernie, he was mobilizing the young people. And even with Trump, to some degree, to the young people ever actually come out and vote. I mean, I know they're all over social media with their signs and everything, but do they actually vote? So it's interesting because there's usually a voting block that surprises us that define an election, right?

33:59Young men in 2024 changed the game. It was a tipping point. And you would never expect young men, and I also think it's why some polling is wrong, because it underweights young people, because young people tend not to turn out. But young men came out for Donald Trump because they had had it. And so there's, I think, young people come out and make a vote when they feel like they're making a statement. And it's like their life depends on it. And young men, and by the way, what Charlie Kirk built and what, you know. I was just about to ask you about that. I have thought a lot about that since the day he was murdered, what the impact of his murder will be going forward.

34:43And it's funny, the closer we get to this midterm, the more I think, wow, my social media feed is not bombarded with Charlie talking to students. What impact is that? I think it's actually a big one, right? Because who's talking to the young people now? And young people don't like to be lectured. They like to be engaged. And I do think that Republicans, It's a big gap, and I think it's an important gap that needs to be filled. But who's the new Charlie Kirk? And where's the left's Charlie Kirk? Is it Hassan Piker? You know, it's a really fair question. I think, in part, but the left doesn't necessarily need one person because there's a whole system that's going after young people.

35:32And from college age to, you know, you're sort of, I hate the word indoctrinated because these young people think for themselves and they're smart and they're all kinds of things. So I don't want to like act like they're being brainwashed. But they're that's part of their group. And in order to change your mind, right, you have to be willing to say this message might go against my identity, but my identity is actually better for it. And so I don't think the left has as high of a bar to get people to leave or join them. But I think that's why young people on the left don't vote in the numbers that the young people on the right were voting because people said, I'm actually making a choice about my identity and I'm going to go make a stand that is important to me.

36:15And that's a very different thing than saying, I'm going to go out and vote because, you know, that's the right thing to do. It's a different phenomenon. And so I think the right really needs to take that back up because for young people to change parties is actually pretty hard. And I was just checking as you were talking, Lee, According to Pew Research, K-12 teachers in the United States, 58 % identify as Democrat and 35 % identify as Republican. Yeah. It's not surprising. No, it's not. And at the college level, it's even more extreme. It's probably 80-20, right? It is. I don't know the exact numbers, but I've seen – it's significant.

37:01can. And it's just, you know, kids are raised with that as what is seen as intellectual. That is what is seen as, and in order to combat that, you actually have to be able to be willing to say, I believe in myself enough, or I believe in something else enough to put to the side all that I've learned. And so I think it's a, I mean, gosh, it's an important mantle to be, you know, it's great to see Turning Point continuing, but it's not like they, I mean, Charlie Kirk changed the game. I don't know. How effective is it now compared to what it was once when he was around? You know, I don't know how effective, like I don't have specific polling numbers, but I know for sure the influence isn't the same.

37:47And the conversation that's being had about Turning Point is much more about conspiracy theories and Charlie Kirk and all that than it is about about why it's important to have conservative values and, you know, all of those things. And so it's going to be interesting to see what happens with young people. But I'm not sure, right, that that means the left's going to come out in droves because I don't think we don't see the numbers on the left of young people. So right now, I mean, is there any chance that the Republicans don't lose at least one branch of government here? There is a chance, actually.

38:22And if you were a betting person, if you were going to bet your life savings on Calci, they're going to lose one. That's what I would say. What was that? I said they're going to lose one, you know, but I will tell you this. They are going to lose one. In 2016, at this time, so if we talked to each other in July in 2016, I would have told you that if I had to bet my life savings that Hillary was going to win. I did not know for certain that Hillary was going to lose until she said basket full of deplorables. Remember that little? And that was October. Yeah, that's right. And and so. Deplorables was really bad.

39:04The Comey stuff didn't help, but the deplorables was really not good. The deplorables was it was like. It it put words to something that people felt. Because I remember talking to voters who like Donald Trump and I was like, well, explain. Do you really think that he cares about people like you? And they're like, do you think she does? Right? Right. No, she she would never. He went to the Iowa State Fair and took people out in the helicopter. He likes people. He goes to McDonald's. If I was rich, I'd want to be just like him. she seemed like something and then she said it out loud for everybody to hear i was like oh no how could you ever believe that she cared about you if that's how she defines you and so i'm not sure the defining moment of the midterms has happened yet but if i were to bet today i would tell you yes they're going to lose one but i think we haven't seen the house more likely the house and the senate i think it's gonna be the senate not the house but oh it's going to be the Senate, not the House.

40:04And then who will be the leader of the Senate? Where's Mitch McConnell? Yeah. Where is Mitch McConnell? Yeah. That's an interesting question. And the lack of transparency on that stuff is disgusting. It's awful. It does not help the Republicans. It does not help at all. Right. And so that guy's been weekend at Bernie's for. Look, the Republicans are very fast to criticize the Democrats for Biden and rightfully so. he was not qualified to be president and he probably wasn't qualified to be president for some time during his presidency. However, if you're going to take that stance, then don't you have to say, hey, McConnell should have been out of here two years ago or more.

40:47Yeah, no, it's. I mean, we've all seen those horrible videos of him freezing. If that was your father or your grandfather or your uncle, if that was a man in your life that you loved, there is no fucking way you'd have them in that job one day more no way and i said the same thing exactly as you're saying about like the criticism about jeb biden was the same thing if you love him don't let him do this don't let him run again but it's um i think that's the problem it's like people see these people power hold on to it no matter what and we just don't trust those what's going on behind it. Don't trust the people who are coming up for it.

41:28And that's why a 30-something year old - Don't we therefore have to have term limits? I mean, when our country was founded, it was never founded on having lifelong elected people. It was all about government for and by the people. And if I look at a place like Singapore, one of the things I really admire about Singapore is it is considered to be, if not the most laudable thing, certainly one of the most laudable things for people who are successful in the private sector to go do a tour of duty in the government, whether it's for a year or two years or 10 years. But if you're a successful business person, maybe you're a successful scientist, whatever you are, go be in the government as an act of service.

42:11That I understand. That makes sense to me. And look, there are some people who are very talented career politicians who should be in politics for longer periods of time. I even understand that. But I mean, there's a reason we have a term limit for president. Why don't we have one for the Senate? Why don't we have one for the House? I don't have an answer for it. I mean, 20 years should be plenty of time for anybody, right? 15 years. Plenty of time. And I think, you know, we end up with people who look at that job and think, I never want it. The best and our brightest are not looking at that and saying, I want to give some time to my country because they want nothing to do with it.

42:54The best candidate, best I can tell, we have in the state of California for mayor of L.A. or governor of the state is more than likely this guy named Rick Caruso. And Rick's not running because Rick ran for mayor. They didn't vote for him. He's a very reasonable guy. He's far from a MAGA Republican. He is very reasonable. He's center right at most. But he's not on board with all the maniac stuff. And he's a good business guy who knows how to make shopping centers and shit work. Right. And he looks good in a suit and he sounds good and he's not nuts. He's not running. He's not running. Yeah. Because he doesn't want the bullshit.

43:36He's been through it. And he says it much more nicely, of course. But he says, look, this is stupid. I'm going to stay outside, make a big impact from outside, but I'm not jumping in. Look, didn't George Washington himself know this to be the problem? George Washington didn't want to be our first president. And that's how he ended up becoming our first president, at least in part. I think we need more of it, frankly. And we got to reduce the barriers to people to like wanting to do it. And I think if you if you took out term limits, you wouldn't end up with people that are career politicians who'd end up with people saying, I will do a tour of duty.

44:11It's a different gig. You know, and there are functions inside the government where you can go, you know, for six months and get appointed in the White House and do great things without having to leave your job. I forget the category of things. We're not super close friends, but we're friendly for sure. Me and David Sachs. Well, I think, look, you can dislike his politics. I don't agree with his politics on everything. That doesn't matter. From what I know, Sachs is a very good man. And from everything I understand, he was as ethical as he knew how to be prior to the last election. And he did as good a job as anybody probably could have done for the six months or a year, I forget how long the term was, where he was a volunteer servant to the president advising on AI and crypto.

45:02And best I can tell, we're better off for it. Well, that's what we want. We want legendary people who have domain expertise in an area because they worked in it for 30 years to come in, do a role, help set some stuff up and then move on. That's great. Yes. Have an impact. Use your experience for good. Do it. Go into government. But people don't do that because they do believe, like we were just saying before, that you have a bigger impact outside of government. But there's endless examples of people who are doing it inside of government. but for short periods of time. And so I think somewhere between those short periods of time and term limits is the answer.

45:45Now, I know this is a horrible question to ask somebody in your field, but I just have to. And hopefully I could talk into coming back a little more regularly. But if you had to look into your crystal magical ball or balls, I don't know how many you have, and you are to look forward to the next presidential election. I mean, And recently we've seen in the news, there appears to be a big uptick for AOC, pulling way far ahead of Kamala, way far ahead of Buttigieg, way far ahead of Newsom. And of course, on the right, everybody loves to go back and forth between Rubio and Vance. And so I know it's not a fair question, but I want to ask it anyway.

46:24Who are the candidates and who's the next president, say you, Lee Carter? I think it's going to be Rubio on the right. Wow. Let me stop you there. Why Rubio and not Vance? So it's not about his popularity. It's not about his charisma. But he has gone in there, put his head down and done his job in a way that is. I can't think of many people who are Republicans who don't have a different opinion of him today than they did when he took office. And it's more favorable. And they think he's stronger. They think he's more mature. They think he's able to tackle the toughest challenges. and he's a little bit away from the controversy, right?

47:09And just a little bit. Obviously, he's close enough that he's wearing, you know, a track suit on Air Force One. So we're not talking that far away, but he's like, he's doing it. And he's hitting the solid line drives. And I think there's just... Wouldn't you love to wear a track suit on Air Force One? I mean, I don't even own a track suit, but I would buy one if I could wear it on Air Force One. You and me both. We'll get matching ones when we get invited on. So the interesting thing about Rubio is, you know, he was always kind of dorky feeling, right? And he was never strong feeling. When he was a candidate for president, he was – and his backstory is great based on what I understand.

47:50And obviously, he's a Latino and he speaks the language and all of that stuff. He's the pride of Florida and et cetera, et cetera. But interestingly enough, I think you're right. Like none of the shit in the administration so far has stuck to him. And I think even you tell me. Even on the left, when they're furious about the policies, there's only so much the left can hate Rubio for some reason. And in a way that they really, truly hate Vance. Yes. And I think also the memes, you know, all of the memes of Rubio doing every job under the sun, you know, like he has to be the Pope or whatever. It's like it's just hilarious.

48:36But it's the head of Venezuela and he's the Pope. But here's the thing. Underneath that joke is a narrative that he can do anything. Right. That he's the safe choice for anything. Right. And when the shit hits the fan, we can rely on Rubio. Yeah. And he is calming in that sense. But he can DJ at a wedding. You know, like, he's just done, I don't know. He's become what he never was, which is really likable, relatable, dependable. And I could see that working. And I think that Beyonce's too controversial. Now, I say that when I know Trump is probably the most controversial person out there. Right.

49:20But Trump is both charismatic and controversial. Like, you can't keep your eyes off of Donald Trump. Right. You can take your eyes off of him. What's he going to do now? You can definitely say. You know what? Clinton had the same thing for some of the same reasons, right? What's he going to do? Clinton, of course, much more polished. But even still, you know, Obama was captivating for sure. But there was no, oh, my God, what's he going to say now? Because he was so polished. Right. I'm sure you've seen the video of Obama talking about getting bin Laden versus Trump talking about Salman. Right.

49:58It's like, well, today, the United States of America conducted operations and la la la. And at 14, 45, 800 hours, we, you know, la la la la la. And whereas Trump gets up and says, today he died like a dog in the desert alone. Yes. Yes. And you can criticize it, but also love it. It's like it's I want my president to actually sound in that example like Obama. However, when you have a president who's going to get up and go, that piece of shit died like a dog alone in the desert, you're like, hey, that's funny. You know, it's like it's like recently with FIFA. Do we want the president of the United States calling the president of FIFA and arguing over referee calls in sporting events?

50:47No, we don't. Does anybody think that's appropriate? Nobody thinks that's appropriate. Do we want to hear about that? No. And if truth be told, I think a disproportionate amount of Americans go, yeah, you go fucking tell them that call was bullshit. Right. They like this sort of unpredictable militant behavior that comes out of his mouth. Well, the thing is, right, you know, remember that movie Dave where the president was really dead or whatever on life support in the basement? And they brought in that guy that looked just like, it's not Kevin Costner. It's Kevin Spacey. No, I can see his face.

51:31Oh, God. I can picture his face, too. That guy. That guy. My point about it is I think Americans' biggest fear is that our leaders aren't really in charge and that, like, it's big marionette and everybody's, like, just doing, you know, the biggest fear, like, look at what was Biden really running and was there somebody else running the government? Like, what's really going on here? And so I think we have these big fears that there's, like, everybody's too polished. They're telling us exactly what we need to hear, that there's somebody else really in charge, that it's not. So when you get somebody who goes out there and says he'll die like a dog in the desert, you're like, all right, that was you.

52:07That sounded like didn't go through the Lee Carter school of political PR. No. So we're going to trust what you're going to say, even if we don't like it. And we'll forgive you for it because we're like, I get it. Because a lot of people will say things like, you know, if I was in that situation, I might say the same thing. You know, if I was the president and that call happened, I'd call, too, because they'd take my call. Why not? And you can say anything you wanted. Got it. So speaking of saying anything you want, I mean, AOC seems to be in that sense a female Trumpian. Okay. So AOC to me has always been fascinating.

52:44She is very Trumpian. She is very charismatic, even if you dislike everything about her. She's another person who can't keep your eyes off of her. You watch her, you listen to her, her message gets through. She's a great politician, and even hate every one of her policies. Here's the thing about AOC right now. I think she might be losing her authenticity. I don't know if you've seen some of the videos that have been going out lately, but she's on a road show. She was always AOC from New York, like Jenny from the block. Like she's, you know, I was a waitress, speaks a little New York, is New York.

53:19And then suddenly she's somewhere down South with a Southern accent. You're like, what is going on here, right? Who are you? If she's going to win, And she has a chance, a long shot chance, but she has a chance. She's got to be true to who she is. And she's going to have to have a counterpart that's running with her that's going to give a good balance. But to me, her biggest risk is authenticity. And I think this is something— But do people see that, though? Like, you know, Jasmine Crockett has been clearly documented putting on, you know, accent affectations. And we've had other politicians do similar things and say very inauthentic things.

54:02And do people really get it, though? Or do they care? They do. And when you have a doubt about someone is when it happens. So if you think about Kamala Harris, right, she comes in out of nowhere. not really but like you know and and she has whatever six weeks to run for for president and she did so well in the polls she did so well for like 10 days of being perfectly polished and we were like all watching it like wow it was shocking right it's like oh my god she's gonna win her her polling as vp was like 20 something and she is like well this is the part i couldn't believe lee i remember reading i forget if it was the new york times the wall street journal but There are a bunch of stories within two months of her taking over the campaign about about that.

54:52There were rumors inside the Democratic Party that there was a Kamala drag on the ticket and maybe they needed a different candidate for VP. That that that was in that fart was still in the elevator when she got when she took over. Totally. It absolutely was. And then she crushed it for 10 days. She did a couple really smart things. I mean, she was really well scripted. Tim Wall seemed like an interesting choice at first for a red hot second. They were like, oh, likable guy, relatable, get it, like folksy guy. And she was like suddenly a fighter. And instead of going after Trump is dangerous, she called him.

55:31um what he called she called him a small man with a big impact and she had some great zingers that were just like minimized him and um and then and then there was all the dancing and the joy and the happiness and all that and that was all sweetness and light and light and all of the things and she was it was it was it was i mean i i'm not a big fan of her policies but it was the The campaign was like nice and fun and exciting and not heavy. And then she tried to have some conversations. And they did not go well. Do you remember the Oprah interview? It was like, oh, my God, the most inauthentic.

56:12Like, it couldn't even make sense of some of her answers. And when she went on some of these rallies, she seemed completely unprepared. And she was inauthentic. She used accents and got skewered through it. And I don't know. Is it a gender thing? A lot of people said it was. I don't think so. I think it was. I hear that a lot. I have an opinion about it, but I hear this a lot. Oh, America's the reason Hillary lost, the reason Kamala lost. Do you believe this, that quote unquote America is not ready for a female president? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. I think the right woman at the right moment with the right message will win without a problem.

56:51in the same way that Obama, which, by the way, in 2008, to think a man named Barack Hussein Obama was going to win by a landslide. His middle name alone, forget the fact of the color of his skin, his middle name alone, I thought would have doomed him. And he ran away with it because he was the right man at the right moment with the right message. And he... Legendary political talent. Just unreal. And I think that, you know... Like, really, no one like him since Clinton. Yeah. No. And so, yeah, I don't think that it's about gender. I don't think it's about, I think that we have certain baggage, all of us, by the way, whether you're a man or a woman, there's baggage that comes with your, by who you are, that can be used against you.

57:37But you have to understand what that is and use it, either to your advantage or not. But you can't, I can't blame it on gender. So this thinking from what I hear in some of the Democratic circles of, look, we ran a woman in Hillary, she lost. We ran a woman in Kamlo, she lost. We love AOC. We want to run her, but we can't run another woman and lose. You don't think that narrative is real? No. No. And so do we have a situation, and this would be kind of very interesting if you think about it, where it's Rubio versus AOC? It's possible. I mean, the Spanish language debates would be interesting. Yeah.

58:19It would be amazing. Well, no, we've never had two candidates for president that could have a Spanish debate with each other. Oh, my God. That would be amazing. Yeah, I think it's possible. But here's the thing I also think is interesting, is as much as the left claims to be the party that's open-minded and accepting and non-judgmental, they are the ones that play it the safest. Like it is over and over. So does that mean Newsom has a chance, Lee? Yeah, it does, but I don't think it's going to be Newsom. Newsom is, to me, Newsom is Jeb Bush. Yeah, right. I mean, I don't know, maybe I'm naive, but if I was the head of the marketing for the Republican running against Gavin Newsom for president, I would just have social media videos of California on fire and homeless people.

59:12And I just have that on repeat. Yeah. I mean, his record is abysmal. The fact that he even thinks he can run is shocking to me. It's shocking. You know, if he was Japanese, he would have already thrown himself off a building with Karen Bass out of shame for what they've done. Yeah, I don't I actually don't think this is. even though he spent his whole life getting ready for this moment, it's not his moment. And America doesn't want what he's offering. He's the whole clock politician that I think is being rejected right now. So if it's Rubio on the GOP side, then who is it? Who's the opponent? I think just like we wouldn't have known Donald Trump was going to be it, I think there's going to be a surprise on the left.

59:56I think there's going to be a big surprise. It could be AOC, but it could be someone we're not even talking about right now. Well, so on that one, you know, it's interesting being, I'm very much a political independent and I have very good friends in the GOP and very good friends in the Democratic Party. And it's sort of, I mean, an interesting place because I believe in many of the things the two parties have to say. And I think some of it's idiotic and stupid, mostly the stuff on the extremes. Anyway, long story longer, I know some pretty senior folks on the Democratic side. And I know for a fact there is an active campaign right now to go out and recruit a complete black swan type candidate, like a Donald Trump type candidate, not somebody currently in the political world who's a major factor in the world.

1:00:56and to get them to stop doing what they're doing and be a massive celebrity who comes in and runs as a Democrat to come in sort of over top of everybody. Somebody who's going to be more centrist, somebody who's already incredibly famous and well-loved and so forth. Is that the kind of black swan type situation you're envisioning here, Lee? It is. I think it's going to be it's going to be someone out of Hollywood is going to be a crazy amazing business person I think it's going to be some if I were advising the left right now I would say get an outsider because you're going to be going against Rubio is my guess or Vance but likely Rubio the ultimate insider and just blow the shit up that's what I would do And is there a big time business person or celebrity or academic or, you know, somebody well known on the left that you think might be that person?

1:02:01I can't divulge anything because I just can't. But you can speculate. You know, I don't I don't know. I thought I thought about it. Is this the year? Is this the time Oprah finally runs or somebody like that? It could be. I don't know. Could it be Oprah? Could it be Jamie Dimon? Could it be? Right. It's not going to be Howard Schultz. That ship sailed. You think so? Is he too old now in his mind, do you think? Well, I think unfortunately, the legend of Howard Schultz got tarnished by some of the labor movement stuff. Well, remember when the mayor of Seattle told everybody not to drink any Starbucks?

1:02:45Remember that? It's like... No kidding. They moved their headquarters, you stupid. Fuck. I'm like, I can't think of a more American success story than his. I love Howard Schultz with every. How can you not love Howard Schultz? And I hate like he could have been if this were. You think he would have been a good president on the Democratic side? I think it would have been a great move. It's to me, I'd love to see somebody who inspires the American dream. and I'd love to see somebody like who came up from nothing and benefited from it and isn't going to try and crush it like that to me is could it be Oprah could it be George Clooney could it be right you know name the celebrity that captures everybody yeah but to me the real thing would be one of those iconic business people that changed the game that could make us believe in success again and not hate it.

1:03:45But that's maybe my dream and projection more than what I think is likely to happen. Here's what I do find interesting. If Bill Clinton were to try to run for president today on the Democratic ticket, what do you think happens to him? He'd win. Oh, he'd win? Even though the left is so far? The left is so far left, but he is such. You think he'd still win? I mean, a little creaky right now, right? No, I don't mean him right now, but like him then. So let me try this on you. You're smarter on this, but does this argument hold? What's happening on the far left today is somewhat akin to what was happening in the Republican Party with the Tea Party.

1:04:31In other words, there was a further right faction that was getting very loud and pissed off and making noises against its own self, against the party. And really, Republicans at the time had a very hard time dealing with the fragmentation that was being caused by the Tea Party. and Trump was able to sort of completely put that down and get them back inside the tent and the Tea Party kind of went away and he sort of embraced them and whacked them down at the same time. It was a pretty masterful thing when you think back to it. Do we need a Democrat who can do that here on the left? On one hand, whack the crazy part of the far left down but at the same time, bring them in.

1:05:19Yes. So I think here's the thing. The Tea Party was the ultimate disruptor in the Republican Party, which needed disrupting. And so that group of people ended up disrupting and then Trump blew it up. It like took it to the next level so that that seemed like child's play. I think that's what's going on. On the left, there's a bunch of disruptors right now who are speaking to a very real pain point in the country. So you need somebody who's going to blow it up and create an even bigger vision than what's there right now. Fascinating. Lee Carter, is there anything else? I think that sums it up. And if I come back in a couple months, we should talk about if any of the predictions were right.

1:06:02I would love to do that. You're one of my favorite political researchers and commentators because you're not full of shit. And even though you have a clear, let's call it leaning or affiliation, you're not an ideological moron and you're incredibly articulate. So I really like hearing what you have to say. Well, thank you. Tell me more.

1:06:26All right, Lee, have a wonderful day and we'll talk real soon, I hope. Okay, I hope so too. Thanks so much. Well, there she is, the legendary Lee Hartley Carter. I'm sure hoping that she will come back. Her book is called Persuasion, Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter. If you want to hear the episode when she came on this oddcast, you can look for that book. You can look that up on our podcast player of choice or go to Lockhead dot com and type in Lee Hartley Carter. and don't forget, podcasts make legendary gifts. So it's the summertime. This is a nice gift giving time. Maybe you're going to be spending some time at the beach.

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From the publisher

Political strategist and pollster Lee Hartley Carter recently joined us at the Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different podcast to share her sharp insights on the current American political landscape. As the founder of Carter Intelligence Group and author of "Persuasion: Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter," Lee Hartley Carter brings a rare combination of research expertise and communications mastery to some of the most pressing questions facing voters and candidates today.

From the rise of democratic socialism to the upcoming midterms, Lee Hartley Carter unpacks why anti-establishment energy is reshaping both parties and what it means for the future of American politics.

You’re listening to Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different. We are the real dialogue podcast for people with a different mind. So get your mind in a different place, and hey ho, let’s go.

 
The Anti-Establishment Wave Is Rewriting the Rules
Lee Hartley Carter argues that the single most defining force in American politics right now is a deep distrust of institutions. Voters no longer trust big companies, big government, or career politicians to deliver on their promises. This sentiment fueled Donald Trump's rise on the right, and it is now driving a new generation of progressive candidates on the left.

She points to Zohran Mamdani's stunning victory in New York City as a prime example. A candidate in his early thirties with no executive experience captured the city's attention by speaking directly to people's frustrations about rent and affordability. According to her, candidates who name real problems and offer simple, emotionally resonant solutions are winning, while those who run on credentials and qualifications are losing.

 
Lee Hartley Carter on Why Feelings Trump Facts in Modern Political Communication
One of the most powerful observations Lee Hartley Carter makes is that feelings consistently override facts in political decision-making. Christopher Lochhead challenges the old saying that facts do not care about your feelings, flipping it to argue that feelings do not care about your facts. Lee Hartley Carter wholeheartedly agrees with this framing.

This dynamic explains why candidates who connect emotionally with voters consistently outperform those who lead with policy credentials and experience. Telling voters they are wrong or uninformed only pushes them further away. She emphasizes that the candidates winning today are the ones validating what people already feel, then offering a focused, believable path forward rather than a long list of policy positions.

 
Lee Hartley Carter on What to Expect From the Midterms and Beyond
Lee Hartley Carter predicts that the upcoming midterms will not be the clear blue wave that conventional wisdom might suggest. Despite an unpopular war, high gas prices, and a president with approval ratings hovering around 38 percent, Democrats hold only a razor-thin lead in generic ballot polling. She believes the race remains wide open for both parties.

Her advice for Republicans is to stop reacting to socialist messaging and start setting their own clear narrative, much like Trump did in 2016 with Make America Great Again. For Democrats, she sees affordability as the singular issue that could carry them to victory, provided the moderate and progressive wings of the party stop undermining each other. Lee Hartley Carter believes the candidates who define the conversation rather than respond to it will ultimately win.

To hear more from Lee Hartley Carter and her thoughts on the current political scenarios, download and listen to this episode.

 
Bio
Lee Hartley Carteris a communications strategist and public opinion expert. She's the founder and CEO of Carter Intelligence Group and author of "Persuasion: Convincing Others When Facts Don't Seem to Matter"

As a television news personality and researcher, she doesn’t rely on traditional polling for her unique insights into U.S. politics; rather, she analyzes voters’ emotional responses to help understand and empathize with them on a more visceral level. The reaction matters, but the “why” behind it matters more. It was this approach that allowed her to accurately predict the results of the 2016 presidential election and primaries.

 
Links
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Fox News | X (Formerly Twitter) | Facebook

 

We hope you enjoyed this episode of Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different™! Christopher loves hearing from his listeners. Feel free to email him, connect on Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, and subscribe on Apple Podcast / Spotify!

 

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