Closing Bell: 10/29/26

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0:55Google Cloud. Check response, subscription required. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break out begins with the countdown to Amazon earnings in overtime tonight. Shares, as you see, lower by near 4%. You have to wonder now what those results from Microsoft and Alphabet mean for this name. We'll obviously ask our experts over this final stretch. Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation, largely read throughout the day following the worst post earnings decline ever. for Alphabet shares. Hard to believe we're talking about$500 billion in market cap wiped away.

1:33How about Caterpillar? A drag on the Dow as well. Revenues falling short of expectations. A big decline today as well for Fortinet following its earnings, which did show a slowdown. Stock getting creamed down 22 percent. We do begin with our talk of the tape. It is Amazon's moment tonight. Let's get to our Kate Rooney, who sets us up for that. Hi, Kate. Hey, Scott. So expectations for Amazon got a little bit higher after Microsoft's blowout quarter. Yesterday, the stock for Amazon does tend to react to this AWS number. That is cloud growth. It is the fastest growing part of the business. It's the higher margin part of this business, despite retail still bringing in the majority of revenue for Amazon.

2:13Microsoft and Azure cloud growth blew through expectations yesterday. You also had Google cloud growth roughly doubling. So for AWS today, Street's going to be looking for 38 % growth. Also watch capacity within AWS. So investors want to see Amazon bringing more computing power online and then turning that AI demand into real near-term sales. CapEx is also important. It's going to show the cost of Amazon's growth. They last forecasted$220 billion in spending. So watch for any changes there and then what it all means for free cash flow. So Amazon is expected to go negative this year, similar to what we saw with Alphabet, with Meta.

2:49This is still an e-commerce giant. We talk a lot about tech with Amazon, but we've still got big retail business. Analysts want to see improving profitability. That comes up as North America margins. And then advertising has been another emerging profit engine. Watch commentary around the semiconductor business as well. Bank of America expects to see adoption of Amazon's Tranium chips and agent tools to help improve margins going forward, Scott. All right. Good setup, Kate. We appreciate that, Kate Rooney. Now to our panel, Hightower's Stephanie Link, Odyssey Capital's Jason Snipe. They own the name.

3:22Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney covers the name. Jason and Steph are CNBC contributors. Good to have everybody with us. Mark, cloud, most important tonight? Yes, yes, by far and away the most important. They probably need to do 40 % plus AWS growth and show that AWS margins, which were close to 40 % last quarter, stay at that same level. and they need to show a healthy increase in backlog, just like Azure did, just like Google Cloud did. My guess is that they pull off this hat trick and all three of those are positive. And then we'll be looking for the free cashflow hints into next year. And I don't know whether we'll get them from the company or not, but my guess is that we're more likely to have positive than negative free cashflow revisions off this print.

4:05If we do, we got a lot of upside to the stock. If we don't, we're staying right here. You say in your headline to us today, funding concerns may matter more to Amazon than the results. Why do you suggest that?

4:21So you stumped me with that one, but I'll just stick with the point that, you know, look, just as we've had a massive reversal in free cash flow outlook amongst the hyperscalers I look at, we began this year thinking that these companies were going to generate 200 billion in positive free cash flow next year. Now it's 100 billion in negative free cash flow. This is kind of one of the key catalyst on Amazon stock. One is a product announcement. I want to hear what they have to say about Project Leo when that goes commercial. But second is, when can we get visibility into peak, or I'm sorry, trough of free cash flow or peak capex?

4:54I don't know that we're going to get that on the call, but that is the next catalyst on the stock. Yeah, I didn't mean to stump you. I was just quoting from the notes I got. I mean, the point is that I think you're making is Amazon's better position than most to fund the AI build out. Is that right? Yeah, no, I think so. The one that's best positioned actually is Google with$250 billion in cash and equivalents. Amazon's not too far behind. Both of those companies did major equity debt raises. Amazon doesn't do equity raises. The last time they did was at their IPO 26 years ago, whatever it was.

5:29But they may need to do extra debt raises. I doubt that they do. They raised$100 billion over the last 12 months. I think these smart FP &A people at these companies, you know, kind of figured out how much they need to get through this investment cycle. It's a massive one. But my guess is that they have financially solved for it. If we get more conviction than that, that's a positive catalyst. If we don't, if we actually hear about additional capital raised needs, that'll be a negative catalyst. Well, they haven't sold equity yet. I mean, do you think we get to that point? They've raised a lot of debt, obviously.

6:01No, you're shaking your head no. No, this company hasn't raised equity since 1995 at the time of its IPO. I mean, I'm actually shocked when I hear that, but it's true. And I think this company is just averse to raising equity. They don't like dilution. So that's their culture. And they've got plenty of access if they need it to the debt markets. But Scott, they already raised$100 billion in debt in the last 12 months. I think they've solved for the investment needs that they have for the next 12 to 24 months. They certainly hope so. I don't know what Stephanie Link hopes for, but why don't you tell us?

6:34I mean, what's top of mind for you tonight? Well, look, they have a strong track record of beating consensus. Since 2023, they have beaten 12 out of 14 quarters. That's an 86 percent beat, right? So, Scott, I think it's going to be a fine quarter. They probably do beat. It is going to hinge on AWS. Whisper numbers, as Mark mentioned, low 40s versus 37 percent sequentially. But I think, yeah, you can point to Azure at 48 percent and Google Cloud Services at 103 percent with very strong backlogs. The momentum is with the three of these companies. And the reason we care about AWS, though, is it's 60 percent of operating income.

7:11Operating margins of something like 39, 40 percent is what I'm expecting. And, of course, we're going to talk about the CapEx. $200 billion this year doesn't go to$250. It does go to$300 billion. Those are where numbers are starting to settle in at. And then on retail, I worry a little bit only because they're going up against a very tough prime day comp. But I do think the profitability will be OK. And then last but not least, advertising. I mean, you know, it's 10 percent of their revenues and people are expecting up 18 percent. You know, after Google's search miss and decel, that's something I think I'm going to be keeping a close eye on as well.

7:48I mean, with Meta, there were times where you were worried about the spend. And is there a level that Amazon talks about where you get a little skittish on this name, too? I mean, I get skittish on all of them. I mean, they're all spending so crazy, but the growth is there. That's why it's so important for them to see the AWS acceleration, Scott, because that will prove that all this spend is leading to better ROIs. And it's only going to get better and better and better. But we don't want to wait that long. So I just think that they're going to continue to see the growth. And again, Microsoft and Google saw the growth.

8:24So if they don't see the growth, that's going to be problematic. But I think that they will. Yeah, I mean, Jason, it's the cost to get the growth that matters more than anything to investors, right? And I'm assuming that's top of mind for you as well. 100 percent, Scott. Obviously, last quarter, they raised the CapEx guy from 200 to 220. You know, so I'll be watching that very closely. I'm also watching for the backlog, as Steph mentioned,$496 billion for AWS backlog. They did talk about bringing more capacity online. So as that number grows, we're going to need to see execution there. And as everyone already said, obviously, the AWS number is going to be the important number that everyone's following.

9:0637 % growth last quarter, the hurdle this quarter is 38%. But the whisper number, to Steph's point, is in that kind of low 40 range. So we definitely want to see that. So, I mean, those are those are the number of things that we're kind of following into the print this afternoon. Mark, is there a level of cloud growth that you have in your mind that would scare you at some point to say all of this spend is not living up to what expectations were? Obviously, they're they're in the pole position in terms of cloud growth. Microsoft's closing the gap. We learned that a little bit more last night. But is there a number in your mind that we need to pay attention to that tells you that the spend for the growth isn't meeting that moment?

9:59Sure. The simple answer is if you had any deceleration in that growth. I mean, if we're decelerating versus last quarter, that's that's problematic. If the margins are also down sequentially from close to 40 percent last quarter and they come down, I mean, that's a stock that's off 10 to 15 percent in a heartbeat. If you see something like that, it'd be very surprising. But it's possible. Anything's possible. But given what we've heard from Microsoft, even what we've heard from Google and just, you know, looking at everything from what the frontier labs are doing and saying, it's kind of hard to it'd be it'd be hard for that to happen.

10:33and it would imply major market share losses by AWS. I don't think that's likely, but sure, that would be the scare. I got a question about the core as well before I let you go, and it's from Gene Munster who posted earlier on X, Mark, and I'd like to get the shareholders' takes too. Quote, I'm getting more concerned about Amazon because personalized bots will make it easy to find what you're looking for, making them a logical starting point for anything we buy. Amazon wins for three reasons. Finding what you want, speed, trust, number one, will increasingly be under attack. And he points to what Zuck has said at Meta about Muse and the use case that he sees there.

11:13How much of a risk do you see for that? Yeah, I think that narrative is in the market. It'll probably get bigger in the market. So it's incumbent upon Amazon. Amazon wins on price, selection, and convenience. And they've got this wonderfully loyal Prime customer base. I think it's highly unlikely that an agentic experience is going to pull people away from Prime, pull those Prime households away. It's possible. But, you know, Amazon needs to keep pushing all three of those levers. And then it also needs to come up with its own agentic offering. It's been playing around with Rufus and Alexa for shopping for quite some time.

11:47Those products still need to be improved. But if they improve those products and keep pushing those three elements, price selection and convenience, I don't think there's an agentic commerce risk to Amazon. Famous last words. Yeah, exactly. I'm going to hold you to that, too. You know, you know, I will. Last quick thoughts from both Steph and Jason as we count down 45 hour or so away from these numbers. Well, I mean, I think down 13 percent from the August highs and it's only up six percent year to date and trading at 17 times, 17 times for 60 percent of the business that is going to grow in the low 40s to me is very attractive.

12:21So I like the setup, but there are a lot of moving parts to this story. And again, watching ads, because that was the real concern about Alphabet. So we got to hope that we get an 18 percent growth number and some pretty positive commentary around that business. OK, Jay. Yeah, and I think I think that ads hurdle is going to be important. Obviously, that's a deceleration from last quarter. I mean, we were talking about 26 percent growth. 18 percent is going to be very important. And again, my my major focus is that AWS backlog and the execution on that number. And the ops margins there, they need to maintain in the high 30s, I think, for the market and street to appreciate the growth there.

13:02So I think that's going to be important for me as I look at the print later on this evening. We'll finish our Amazon conversation right there. Mark, thank you for joining us. Don't go anywhere, though, Steph and Jason. We're going to keep you around. We want to talk about the markets and add Baird Strategas' chief markets strategist, Chris Verone. It's good to have you here. Great to be here. What's riding on tonight in your mind, you think? Well, I mean, certainly when you look at the response to the stocks, which were generally good numbers, it continues to reflect how high the bar here is. But maybe it's more remarkable, though, in light of that, how rotational this market is.

13:34I mean, you have Nasdaq down 150 bps today, 30 % of the S &P making a 20-day high today, advances over decliners 2 to 1. Money does not want to leave the asset class here. It's staying within. It's rotating within. I think you have to take some comfort in that message. Finally, though, right? I mean, that's part of the message, too. Well, I think what's interesting is this rotational moment does look a little different than some of the ones earlier that we've seen in the year. There is a more defensive flavor to this. I think we should acknowledge that. Oh, no, there's no question about that. You've seen it with Staples.

14:04To what degree do you want to put health care in that camp? I would. Staples, health care, and utilities are three of the top performing groups today, to your point, which is why I've couched a little bit of the conversation around, oh, well, the market's broadening. Well, yeah, but. And this has happened as Bonneos have come down. We're 37 basis points off the high in US 10s, and it really has not recatalyzed the purely cyclical parts of the market. I think that's an interesting message here as rates have come in. It's been defensives that have taken the baton. I do think what's interesting is you could start to put together this mosaic, as crazy as it sounds, that there are maybe some disinflationary messages starting to weave their way through the tape here.

14:44I'm sure you've noticed crack spreads have peaked here. They made three-month lows this week. materials have softened gold and silver certainly exhibit a and then I think you look at the consumer sectors they're responding like the high-end yields might be in they're responding like maybe some pressure from commodities is starting to abate look at the restaurants over the last couple weeks some real turns there so I'm trying to think about as we look ahead to 27 what's going to look very different than the consensus expects there's some disinflationary pressure starting to build here which I think in part is why Steph you continue to believe in a bigger broadening, but also led by the cyclicals that have underperformed.

15:21We can't have a broadening led by defensive names. That's not going to do the trick. No, that's very true. And yeah, we've had some sectors that are defensive that are doing well. But look at today. I mean, you have the XLF up 1.4 percent. You have industrials up 50 basis points. You even have discretionary. It's up 60 basis points. So I think, yeah, some of it's defensive, but some of it also is that there are other places to put money to work because earnings were good in all of these sectors. And by the way, we're 50 percent through on the S &P 500. And we have many different sectors that have actually participated in the 25 percent overall growth.

16:01It's energy, tech, materials, industrials, financials. So it is broader than just being defensive in my mind. And I would just say what's really encouraging is that, you know, if you were have told me that comm services and tech both being down 2 % today and Google the bellwether being down 13%, I would have thought we would be down double digits in the S &P 500. And we're only down about 50 bps and the equal weight is flat. So I think that there's a lot to be looking forward to. I think there are a lot of opportunities. I'm very happy the economy, the data we got today was very much supportive of cyclicals with a GDP of 3.4 % and continued weekly claims being very, very low, an inline-ish core PCE, nothing too crazy.

16:44Fed, we got through the Fed yesterday, and it was like a nothing burger, if you will. And we know we're going to get a rate cut hike in December, but the economy is strong enough that it can handle that. You want to rebut any of that? You know, I think some of the - Because that's like the optimist of optimist view. Yeah, and I think there's certainly some great observations from Stephanie there. I would add a couple points. I'd say this leadership transition that I think is upon us here is not just among the sectors, it's also within the sector. So take financials. Insurance has been dead money for three years.

17:19It has started to emerge here. I mean, where the new high data has been strongest within the sector is insurance. That's a change. Even if you look at the banks, the leadership among the banks has evolved. It is not the big banks here. It's the regionals and the small community banks. I'm glad you make the point, because if you were just to look at sector performance of the financials and you'd say, well, I look at that and I see over the last one month a 5 % gain, if you look under the hood, so to speak, you would see Citigroup's down 4%, B of A's down more than 6%. Most of the names within that group haven't done all that much.

17:59JP Morgan's a standout plus 2%. And I think it's it. It's Berkshire at new highs. It's insurance that's broken out. It's, you know, East West Bank Corp, which has turned up. It's these unusual kind of resurgence from the neglected corners of the sector. Now, I don't think any of this is necessarily bearish, but it is a transition or a handoff from, I think, what the leadership looked like for much of the last couple years. And, you know, take about financials in particular here. You see this globally, like insurance over banks is starting to become a bit of a global thing you see in other sectors.

18:28Take the energy sector, for example. The momentum in the energy sector is breaking right now. It's refiners, right? They have cracked here. At the same time, E &P, which has spent the last couple of months consolidating, starting to break out. So this rotational spirit is not just at the top. It's within the sectors as well. Jason, your market thought more broadly as you react to what Chris and Steph have seen. Yeah, so I think what's important is we need not think about the market from a broadening perspective really taking a defensive posture. I think that is not exciting to me. I think what Steph said earlier in terms of the macro data that we got in terms of GDP being up 3.4 percent.

19:09And there are other things working in the economy outside of AI, whether it's health care. And to Chris's point, what's going on with regionals, I think that's a positive signal. I think we want to see the alt managers and the investment banks participate in a meaningful way. But to see the regionals, which is the real economy, starting to improve here and have some better guidance going forward, I think that's a unique positive for the market. So I think there's a little bit of dispersion, which could be your friend. Volatility could be your friend as a portfolio manager. So I think it's an opportunity to kind of lean into the real economy and all things outside of AI being something to kind of take a look at, you know, whether it's industrials, health care, utilities, you name it.

19:55I think that's an opportunity. So Steph says the economy is strong. She points to all the different metrics. Yesterday, Fed Chair Warsh, they upgrade their assessment of the economy. They replace solid for strong. They talk about the nature over and over again of this economy showing its resiliency, its ability to remain strong and even getting stronger. Under that backdrop, why aren't cyclical areas of the stock market doing better? And listen, there are parts of industrials which are very much back in gear here. Look at Emerson or Fastenal or I frankly think there's some washed out areas. Quanta, which frankly look pretty timely.

20:29But something very interesting happened yesterday. We've been in the curve ladder camp all year. Yesterday, you actually got some bull steepening, and enough so where I think we have to revisit is curve shape about to change here. I think the other kind of interesting, almost contradiction of the moment, remember a year ago, November of 2025, the call across the street was 26 is going to be a great year for the consumer. It's tax refunds. It's a Fed that's cutting. It's all this stimulus. And you know who never believed it was the consumer stocks. Here we are a year later, and you can't really find anyone saying anything constructive about consumer for next year because it's going to be tighter financial conditions and high oil, high rates, yet quietly discretionary is acting better.

21:11So I have to tip my hat to Seth on that one because there is improvement there that I certainly think demands our attention. All right. We'll leave it there. Thank you, everybody. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you all soon. We do have an update now on Polymarket. Contessa Brewer has the details for us. What do you have? Scott, All Systems Operational. CNBC has learned that hackers stole some funds from some Polymarket traders. That has been referred to UK investigators. They had shut down Polymarket for a brief period of time. Apparently, the problem was a third-party vendor. But at this point, it's all back up and running.

21:45And Polymarket has said it will make those traders whole. That's the news. I appreciate the news from you. And Tessa Brewer, we're just getting started. Coming up next, we are live from the Schwab Impact Conference in Boston. We'll find out how advisors are helping clients navigate today's big market moves, that and much more when we come back. Legacy credit scores only look at a brief snapshot in time, and that limited view often leaves millions of qualified credit seekers out of the picture. Vantage Score is changing that by modernizing credit scoring. Vantage Score uses 400 % more credit and alternative data to create a fuller picture of financial behavior, including trended credit data, rental payments, and timely utility payments.

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23:47Thousands of registered investment advisors gathered in Boston today for Schwab's annual Impact Conference. Our Morgan Brennan is there with John Beatty. He's head of the company's advisor services. Hi there. Hi, Scott. Yes, and you know John Beatty because you've been here in years past. John, it's great to speak with you today here from the Schwab Impact Conference in Boston. 6 ,000 attendees this week. You've got thousands of investment advisors here over the last couple of days. What are you hearing from everybody? What has been the feedback? Well, Morgan, thank you for being here. We are super excited about the conference.

24:17You mentioned 6 ,000 attendees here, up 25 % from last year. And the energy here is off the chart. Lots of talk about how we're going to innovate the space to find more ways to solve and serve investors and help them reach their financial dreams. So energy's high, and I'm sure you're excited to be interviewing the astronauts here in about an hour, right? Yes, I'm looking forward to that, too. But first, how are you innovating, and what is the role that AI is playing? You've had a flurry of announcements just around AI and how that's coming into advisory services in general this week. Yes, AI is going to empower RAA firms to serve their clients, not replace the advisor.

24:55I think the promise of AI is it's going to free up more time, allow advisors to create better experiences for their clients, go deeper on the investments and the planning and the relationship. So the industry is very excited. I would say we are moving on AI from experimentation to practical usage. Last year at Impact, it felt like we were crawling. This year, it feels like we're walking, maybe at a fast walk. I think by the time we get to Impact next year, we'll be at a full sprint on artificial intelligence. You mentioned some of our announcements. We are so excited about our partnership with Anthropic, Claude for financial advisors.

25:33We announced that a while ago. It went live last night. We believe that's a cornerstone. as well as we extended our partnership with Wealth.com, bringing Esther, an AI tool for estate and tax planning, and then made a strategic investment in Nevis that specializes in helping advisors use AI and workflow. So we believe that AI as an ecosystem is the way to go, and we're really excited about the path forward. That's interesting because it's not about cutting the humans out of the loop. It's about enabling the humans is basically what you're saying, and that is sort of the thesis here at Schwab. What are investment, how are investment advisors working with or beginning to engage with some of the AI capabilities that you are rolling out across platforms?

26:16What do their clients want? How are they thinking about it? Right now, it's empowering RIAs to be better with their clients. And what we see is them using it across their whole ecosystem. They're using artificial intelligence for meeting preparation, note-taking during meetings. They're reading financial documents with artificial intelligence to get to smarter, faster conclusions when they meet with their end client. We do believe that AI will extend into the experience of the end client with their advisor. So there's lots of possibilities that we're going to see come to fruition with artificial intelligence.

26:55The digital innovation in this industry is being empowered by the entrepreneurial spirit of 17 ,000 points of light in the marketplace. In terms of where you are seeing money go to work across the platform and across different asset classes, we've got a big run-up in rates this year. We've had a lot of volatility in equities. How is that playing out at Schwab? Yeah, well, what we see is an advisor base that's very engaged in the marketplace in terms of using asset allocation tools, making sure that they're balancing for the downside as well as the upside in the portfolio. We have seen a shift in the portfolio.

27:34We talked last year with Scott about the 60-40, and I think that this space is very much using all tools possible to make sure they're building the right portfolios for their clients. Is 60-40 still alive and well? Still alive and well in the industry, yes. Interesting. Okay. John Beatty, it's good to be here with you at the Schwab Impact Conference. Appreciate it. Thank you. Scott, I'll send it back to you. All right, guys. Have fun. Thank you. Morgan Brennan. Up next, sports team, valuations. You know what they're doing. They're only going one direction. How much higher can they go, though? We'll ask Goldman Sachs' head of sports and entertainment solutions, Nicole Polin-Ross, next.

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29:39One of the biggest questions hanging over the sports investing landscape. When will valuations either top out or, at the very least, slow their rapid rise? Nicole Pollan-Ross is head of Goldman Sachs' sports and entertainment solutions business, joins us now. It's so good to have you on. Thank you. I feel like we're talking about this story quite literally every day, and we did yesterday with Mark Lasry, which I'll mention in a moment and play some sound, because I want you to react. The big overriding point here is that this is a bona fide asset class. And a new report that you have called Playing for Scale, the Future of Sports Investing, suggests that the appetite to engage in that asset class is still going like this, isn't it?

30:19It is. It's a topic that every client is interested in engaging around, whether those are family office clients or clients thinking about other uncorrelated assets or non-AI related assets. So yes, it's a topic from a lot of different perspectives. You surprised at all by the level of growth, however? Expected to grow 44 % from 2025 to$602 billion by 2030. I mean, I wouldn't even be surprised if it outpaces that projection. Yeah. Surprising to you? It is surprising to us based on when we started focusing on this in 2018. It's been pretty tremendous. Just take the institutional capital as an example.

30:59In 2018, there were 50 private equity deals. In 2025, there were 192. Wow. And so that speaks to the activity, the interest, and the valuations requiring more and more capital solutions. Well, the leagues aren't stupid either. I mean, if you open the spigot to more capital from different places, obviously you're going to see the benefit in terms of valuations. I mean, to your point, as institutional investors are more able to have access to these franchises like they are in ways that they never to this magnitude were, that's only going to continue? Are they going to widen the pool even more? I think so.

31:38Because if you look at the expectation around media rights, which is a big driver of valuations, we expect to see growth continue there as well. Today, the streaming platforms are 20 % of the media rights space. And it gets harder and harder for my mother-in-law anyway to find a game, trying to find it on Amazon, et cetera. I think they're going to continue to be a meaningful contributor to media rights. And that's going to continue to grow some of the valuations. I'm in the same boat as her, like clicking all around, trying to find the game that I want to watch. You have another just crazy number in here.

32:10In 2025, every team in the world's top 100 was worth more than$2 billion compared with none in 2010. Yeah, that's incredible. How? Well, think about what's changed in terms of the breadth of what's happening in sports. So, yes, the teams and the leagues are an important component, but everything around it, whether it's the gaming or the sports betting or the full real estate picture that many of the teams are building around their arenas or stadiums to really create a community, Those are all diversified revenue streams that are becoming much more meaningful. I don't know if you happen to see this little tear out of New York magazine, I think just today or in the last few days, where they had a piece titled, How Can Sports Teams Possibly Be Worth This Much?

33:02They Aren't Good Business on Paper. Quote, the truth is that the prices of American sports teams are post-logic. their value has in Wall Street lingo, technical trading dynamics independent from the fundamentals or the basic rules of finance. In other words, they're not profitable, right? In most cases, you pump in so much money because you don't want your team to stink if you own it. And I want you to listen to what Mark Lazzari told us yesterday. He was quoted in this article, by the way, but he spoke with us yesterday. Listen. Valuations have gone up 20, 25 times from where I invested, and I was viewed as doing something wrong back then.

33:42So the reason for that is there's just more and more interest. And I think for what we're doing, you're going to see it over the next five or 10 years. More and more people are going to be involved in sports, but it's become an asset class. That's what's different. As it's an asset class, then you're going to start continuing to see valuations go up because there'll be more capital there. But the supply side dwarfs right now, the demand side. He's a perfect person to hear from relative to paying$500 million for the Bucs not even that long ago, having like a seven or eight bagger exit. Now he wants back in to the NBA.

34:20When he says what he says and you hear the headline or see the headline from New York magazine. What do you think? Well, Mark is a legend. So I think he's got a great track record to speak to in terms of his expertise in the space. And I think the point he's making in terms of where we're seeing growth is to this expansion component. And so there are certainly opportunities in a lot of the emerging sports as well as opportunities outside of the U.S. So the global growth that we're seeing in international markets is important. And also areas like women's sports. And so we're starting to see so much more investment and interest in women's sports.

34:56The average WNBA team is worth now more than$400 million. Yeah. Well, we're big believers, obviously, because we have the rights deal with the WNBA. How about the New York Magazine takeaway, I suppose, that the truth is that the prices of American sports teams are post-logic. They aren't good business on paper. It's interesting that you asked the question today. I missed that article, but I was coming from an investor conference that we're hosting at Goldman. And one of the conversations was with individuals investing in this space. And two of the investors, one is focused on the kind of major leagues and the other on women's sports, specifically talked about this logic around where businesses are in the growth cycle and the fact that the profitability in many of the WNBA teams, for example, is more significant than some other major sports leagues.

35:52So, I think it depends on where you want to be on the risk spectrum, in terms of, are you in the growing, the growth side of the curve? Are you more in the kind of NFL, more fully valued, mature part of the market? But the models would say, based on those investors, that there is room to go. And, I mean, it can be so different than regular investing. I heard from one professional owner. I want to read what he said about this topic, about why they're worth this much, why the prices keep going up, because bidders, the highest bidders, are paying for the chance to be a champion. The feeling you can't actually buy, but you can buy a chance to accomplish that.

36:34If someone has Balmer or Bezos money, it's the one thing they don't have and can't order for immediate delivery. That kind of says it all. Well, there's a scarcity element. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of people who are Bezos or Ballmer who can have that sort of full control. And so what you're seeing is more interesting opportunities for financing. We're seeing team owners who want to continue to grow, use creative financing. Our private bank has done a ton of those transactions. And so there is this opportunity for more and more investors to get exposure to different parts of the sports ecosystem.

37:10And I think that the ability to do that in different forums and different fund types, et cetera, is growing even more. Do you also see, lastly, that it's a rising tide sort of lifts all boats in that, yes, we've seen the biggest increases from the big four leagues. But all of those smaller leagues that have drawn a lot of investor capital, including the likes of the Lazres and others who see great opportunity there, it's lifted the valuations there, too? I think absolutely the broader sports ecosystem is benefiting. The reality is the value of live sports is incredibly attractive. But there is capacity, right?

37:48How many hours can you spend at live sports or watching a game? So there is a bit of competition that will happen naturally. And so I think we'll have to see which of the investments are most meaningful and have the most opportunity to succeed. Not every investment will. for sure, but that's part of what people sign up for. Mark also made the point that it's maybe the one area that can never be disrupted by AI. Yes. Right. You're making that same point. The live sports aspect. Captive audience. Advertisers love that. Media rights. Well, which means we'll talk about it a lot more. Thanks so much for coming on.

38:27Thank you. Pleasure to be here. Up next, we track the biggest movers into the close. Brandon's following that for us and joins us with more. What do you see? Hey there, Scott. Earnings, earnings, and more earnings. A construction giant falling despite by the beat of drug makers soaring on weight loss demand and cruise lines sailing higher. Well, the ticker is taking over these last few minutes of trading coming up after this. We're about 10 away from the bell. Back to Brandon now for the stocks that he is watching. What do you got? Hey, Scott, starting off with shares of Caterpillar plunging despite reporting a beat across the top and bottom lines.

38:54And that said, sales for the company's construction industries business did come in slightly below estimates. You can see the stock down almost 10 percent there. Meantime, you have Eli Lilly in the green after blowing past expectations in its most recent quarter. Demand for its obesity drug ZEP bound and diabetes treatment Manjaro continues to soar. The company also hiked its full-year sales outlook. Those shares are now up about 6%. And then finally, cruise companies climbing after Norwegian posted better-than-expected earnings and revenues and raised its full-year guidance. The company is in the midst of a turnaround effort and announced the appointment of new CFO Megan Montana effective January 1st.

39:28You can see their shares up about 13%, Scott. All right, Brandon, good stuff. Thanks, Brandon Gomez. Up next, key earnings hitting in overtime. We don't need to tell you about Amazon, but that's not it. Starbucks and Intel also ready to report. We have full team coverage inside the market zone, which is next. All right, we're now in the closing bell market zone, moments away now from some critical earnings hitting the tape. Amazon, Starbucks, Intel all on deck. We have full team coverage standing by. Kate Rooney, of course, is covering Amazon. Oliver Rennick tracking the options action in that name.

39:57We do have Amazon shareholder Bill Baruch. He's at the ready. Brandon Gomez is looking ahead to Starbucks. Team Emote all over Intel. Hey, Rooney, we start with you. All right, Scott. Well, Amazon's cloud business is where most investors are focused today. The stock really tends to react most to that AWS number. That is the cloud growth. It's the fastest and a high growth part of the business, higher margin part of the business for Amazon AWS. Today, for that number I mentioned. Street is looking for 38 % growth. Last quarter, for a little bit of context, it was around 37 % growth. Watch capacity as well.

40:31So investors want to see Amazon bringing more computing power online and then turning AI demand into real sales in the near term. CEO Andy Jassy did say recently cloud capacity was largely sold out for next year. He said that on a podcast recently. CapEx will show the cost of Amazon's growth. Amazon last forecasted$220 billion in spending and then free cash flow, Scott. So Amazon is expected to go negative this year. It's still, of course, an e-commerce giant as well. We talk a lot about the tech side, but analysts want to see improving profitability. That comes up with North America margins for retail.

41:04Stocks up about 8 % year to date, but it's been lower today heading into the print, Scott. That's a lot at stake coming up in just a little bit. Kate, thanks. That's Kate Rooney. Oliver, what's the options market saying about it? Mostly holding their breath, it seems like, Scott, hoping Amazon won't be the third MAG7 flop. Options traders are pricing a big move, 8%, which is much more than the usual, less than 6 % the past two years for Amazon. One trade stood out that I think captures the sentiment well. It was someone selling both puts and calls for June next year, betting that Amazon vol right now is priced too high, but selling a 220 strike put that's much closer to the money than the 330 strike they sold, suggesting that if there is a big move in the first half of next year, they see a better chance of it happening to the upside, Scott.

41:54All right, good stuff, Oliver. Thank you, Brandon Gomez. Let's talk some Starbucks. And I wonder if we'll hear anything about Starbucks, Chipotle, even though Brian Nichol already said not happening, but you'll probably be asked about it. I know, I thought you were going to say it. We'll see if they talk about it tonight. But look, Starbucks numbers in a few minutes. The stock has been up 24 % year to date so far as its turnaround takes hold. The question from investors will be, can it continue with particular focus on sales recovery? Now, this quarter, Wall Street expects revenue to drop 3.6 percent year over year, coming in at$9.2 billion.

42:25That's a sharp turn from the 5.5 percent gain a year ago. The question is, can Starbucks keep winning back customers and build on that comp's momentum? We're also listening for any update on the full year outlook, Scott. Perhaps some more on that Chipotle conversation. All right. Good stuff. I mean, maybe he's going to be asked. Who knows? Brandon, thanks. Brandon Gomez. All right, Seema, tell us more about Intel. Well, as you know, Scott, Intel off the high, but it's up about 120 % this year with enthusiasm building around its foundry business in the U.S. with help now from the government with that 10 % stake.

42:54The question is whether the transition from AI training to inference is creating a bigger opportunity for CPUs, which Intel manufactures, and if that demand is allowing Intel to raise prices. Beyond Sales will get an update on Intel's progress in manufacturing packaging chips in the U.S. as its key rival Taiwan Semi continues to invest in the U.S., the foundry business, And if it needs to raise more capital, it did announce a$20 billion equity raise in August. Scott. OK, Seema, thanks. We'll see what happens in just a few. Bill Baruch comes in, the Amazon shareholder. Stock's been at three-month low.

43:25What's the overhang, do you think? Yeah, I think the CapEx story is the tough one. But I do think that they can dig out of this. And there's a lot of technical support. Really, what I'm looking for is AWS to continue to show this reacceleration. It was quarter three of 2025, 20 % growth was achieved. They're looking for 38.4, potentially whisper numbers as high as 41. If we see a four-handle or 42 % acceleration AWS, this stock trades higher. But yes, CapEx is the elephant in the room,$220 billion this year. Free cash flow started to go negative quarter one to 25. If they could give a peak to this CapEx, the stock could re-rate.

44:06I mean, 2028 is what they're looking for. If they pull that back in, that's going to be a very bullish catalyst. You got the end of July gap from its earnings as support at 235. We're trading at the 20 moving average. There's a lot of technicals here giving us support. If we get a good report, a good response, this thing could quickly get to 265, 275. But you want the CapEx to be pulled in? Yeah, I think if they can give us a CapEx timeline better than what we're seeing already, I think that would be the window that allows this stock to re-rate. I think the market is already understanding that CapEx across these names from meta to alphabet is going to be the problem.

44:44But if they can start to show something here that they're going to bring this in sooner than 28, that's going to be really great for the stock, especially given the AI backlog. Their backlog of$496 billion, Tranium and Bedrock, you know, these are really big catalysts for the name, too. So I think there's a lot of things that could drive it higher. It just really comes down to the AWS continued acceleration. And you don't worry about a dip in CapEx being some kind of warning sign? Not yet. Not yet. You don't want to see a significant call off on CapEx. You just want the timeline in which they're going to continue to accelerate the CapEx to maybe start to be pulled in from that 2028 timeline.

45:25I mean, the other thing, it's so funny, this story, how it's just morphed into something so much more than the core business. But it's such a big part of the business. How are you thinking about that? Well, the old school traditional business. Yeah, marketplace, like the business. Yeah, I mean, the prime day timing is going to start to normalize. I think that's going to be something that helps this rebound. Street wants to see overall$244.5 billion. I do think that consumers is going to continue to lean on Amazon. And I know I don't see that wearing down at all. I think that's going to be a continued powerhouse within the overall business.

46:07But I think the market's focused on the AWS acceleration. You look at how that stock responded at the end of quarter three of 25. It was AWS acceleration that really drove this thing. All right. Good stuff. Bill, thanks. Bell's going to ring. And it's going to mean that we're only moments away from this critical earnings report. You'll get it from all the analysis you need in overtime. It's a little bit. I've given my blood, my sweat, my tears to this island. What happened here? We came here seeking a great treasure. We've been out here for 14 years. After centuries of mystery. You have to hold the proof in your hands.

46:44The lifelong quest. Time to go get it. Whoa, what the heck? Has finally paid off. You found that in the money pit. This is what we've spent our entire lives searching for. The Curse of Oak Island. New season, Tuesday at 9. Only on History.