Closing Bell Overtime: Markets Brace for Election Results 11/3/26

0:00I'm Mike McNerney, Equity Investment Strategist. Markets move fast. My mission is to provide market insights to our clients that help turn uncertainty into opportunity. Janice Henderson, investing in a brighter future together. At Fanatic Sportsbook, we're talking real fan cash on every bet. Spend it on jerseys, tickets, collectibles, and more. Rewards hit different here. New customers can bet and get up to$1 ,000 in fan cash over 10 days.

0:50The bell's bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC Enterpact Tool. Ringing the bell, and at the NASDAQ, it's Manhattan Associates doing the honors. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. You're live from Studio B at the NASDAQ Market Site. I'm Melissa Lee along with Mike Santoli. Socks mostly higher today as the tech trade bounces back after three down days in a row. Dow losing more than 200 points. S &P 500 up a third of a percent. NASDAQ up a tenth of a percent. The NASDAQ 100, though, still off more than 10 % from its early October record high. Big tech bouncing back. Meta higher despite plans to raise another$20 billion.

1:22As usual, Apple trading opposite the rest of the MAG-7, down 2 % following its results last night. Chip stocks rebounding. The socks higher by about 2.5 % following a three-day losing streak, which costed about 14%. That trade will be tested in just a few minutes when we get results from AMD. Our team is watching that and also results from Amgen. Boking, Holding and Block will get you those reports as soon as they come out. But let's begin with the first take on the close. And it felt like we didn't really do too much. There's a lot of overhang still. Trying to do as little as possible, yeah. I mean, not a lot of conviction.

1:54It just felt as if you wanted to stay sort of neutral here, waiting for the big catalyst. There's absolutely a plausible case that we've done enough work on the downside. You've really gotten a little bit washed out in some of the tech areas that there's a baton pass that could happen from the defensive parts of the market back toward AI leadership. But you need the trigger and you need to prove it. And I was saying earlier, the semiconductors ETF, the stocks, probably needs a 10 percent rally from here to just say that it's anything but a dead cap bounce. That's how bad the downtrend is. Yeah, I mean, the silver lining to this is that maybe we didn't see that bounce among mega cap tech stocks.

2:29They got clobbered after earnings because all of them pretty much across the board are still below their pre earnings levels. They haven't made up any part of that ground practically that they lost on earnings. And so maybe it's good that we're just hanging out here below those levels instead of just bouncing right back. Yeah, you've wrung out a lot of complacency and maybe some hope. And if you were worried about valuations and crowded sentiment and high hopes, you know, two months ago in these stocks, then you're less worried about those things right now. If you're worried about the Fed getting aggressive, you're at least incrementally less worried.

2:59Even credit has improved over the last two days. But none of it has been decisive enough to say that this choppy period is over. Yep. We got Amgen earnings. Let's get to Annika Kim-Constantino with the numbers. Annika. Hey, Melissa. Amgen beating on the top and bottom line. Adjusted EPS came in at$6.45 per share versus the$5.79 that the street was expecting. Revenue also came in ahead of$10.37 billion for the quarter versus the$10.07 billion estimate. The company also raised its outlook for the year to be between$38.9 billion and$39.7 billion and hiked its adjusted earnings outlook to be between$22.90 per share and$23.70 per share.

3:41Some of the highlights here are that 17 products delivered at least double-digit sales growth and came ahead of estimates this quarter. That includes Repatha, a drug that lowers bad cholesterol, which jumped 37 % to$1.09 billion in sales, and osteoporosis drug, Avidity, which jumped 39 % to$751 million in sales. It's no surprise. We saw weakness with another osteoporosis drug, Prolia, with sales coming in below estimates due to biosimilar competition here. Yeah, the stock is not doing too much here, Annika. It looks like their forecast for full year adjusted earnings came in a little bit below, 22 to 23, and analysts were at 23.02.

4:18So let's see how the stock shakes out. Annika, thanks. Annika Kim-Constantino. Well, tech is bouncing back today with the Nasdaq up about a percent. Semis up roughly 3 percent. but the market is still wrestling with whether defensive leadership can keep markets afloat if the tech trade continues to wobble. Is this a healthy rotation, or does tech still need to take back the lead? Joining us now to discuss is Phil Kemporelli, Chief Investment Strategist, JP Morgan, Wealth Management. Phil, great to see you. Good to see you both. What do you make of the action here? Yeah, so we would take this, the hyperscale trade, we still like it.

4:50We still believe that it's a buying opportunity here. And I just want to put this into perspective for a second. Like, this is going to be the eighth straight order of double-digit earnings growth as a whole for the market. I think that's really healthy. And the hyperscalers in particular. I think, again, if you have any lingering uncertainty on things like free cash flow or if you have lingering uncertainty on capital raises, you're getting punished. However, we think that these hyperscalers are particularly well-positioned based on cloud revenue growth, I think, is important. obviously financials.

5:24I think they're not as levered as some of the other names that are getting hurt when it comes to capital raise. And then the third piece is valuations. And I love this story that the four big hyperscalers are actually trading in line with the S &P for the first time in like a decade, right? So you put that all together. They are the S &P. Yeah, exactly. And you don't have to pay a premium for these anymore. And I get this question all the time, like, what inning are we in in this AI trade? And I tell people batting practice. I mean, I think that this is an incredible opportunity here on the hyperscalers.

5:55On one level, I mean, the numbers bear that out. They're responding to real demand signals and all the rest of it, and they're trying to invest for the long term. But, you know, we're trading off of things, and I know you've kind of spitballed some of this too, 2030 spending levels or something like that, or how much CapEx and how much AI growth there's going to be. Well, that's four years away. Four years ago, ChatGPT first showed up. We had no idea what was coming in four years. So I'm just wondering if the market is correct in saying let's not pay up in advance of what might be coming down.

6:25Yeah, and I would rather have it that way, Mike, than the market being up 25 percent this year because you see multiple expansion and earnings growth. The reason why the market is only up 10 percent this year at a time when we have 24 percent earnings growth is that skepticism. So I think that that's warranted based on, OK, let's think about what's going to happen over the next four years. But as far as the free cash flow goes, and again, this is particular to the hyperscalers. I think some of the uncertainty there is a little bit overblown when it comes to free cash flow. I think they get back to free cash flow sooner.

6:57And then that is what gets the multiples to expand in the hyperscaler world. What's the hedge in your portfolio then? Because it seems like you're overweight everything that is levered to the AI trade. Yeah. And again, utilities are a little bit tied to that. But utilities for us is kind of a classic, you know, why is this underperforming other defensives? It's underperforming staples by like 17 percent this year. And I think it got really tied into, is it a bond, right? What a midterm election is going to do. And I think you could see some relief in the utility sector. And then the 10-year note, like, let's not overlook that.

7:32A$4.95 10-year note, the hedge that it has had to AI, I think, is really important. So fixed income in a well-diversified portfolio makes sense. Again, a lot more sense than it made from earlier in October. I was going to say that, you know, it's been really fascinating the way that Treasury yields have flipped to kind of moving, you know, as part of almost a proxy to AI enthusiasm. In other words, yields up when people think we're guns blazing on AI and vice versa. What does that do to all the expected correlations? And, you know, Treasuries aren't moving with oil anymore. It doesn't really seem like an inflation trade.

8:06Yeah. So the portfolio makes sense again. It's like make diversification great again, right? So it makes sense again. And we always believe that alternatives do play a role in the portfolio. I don't want to overlook that. But it's not because of stock bond correlations. It's just what alternative assets you want to be uncorrelated to both stocks and bonds. But Mike, it's a great, great signal when you could have traditional defensive asset classes working your portfolio. And then it's just as far as midterm go. I mean, people talk about selling mango away and the Santa Claus rally. These seasonals after midterms are outstanding.

8:38So since 1950, every six-month, nine-month, and 12-month period after a midterm has been positive. That's a lot of red, that's a lot of blue, and that's a lot of purple. I think this clearing event could be a really nice setup into the fourth quarter. Oh, it's that word that you love. What's that? Yeah, look, it could be, but we keep missing the clearing events. We thought maybe the hyperscaler earnings were going to be. Also, by the way, you do note that there are some similarities this time to 2018. Yeah, I think it's great. You had the Fed tightening and you had kind of these kind of shifts in terms of rotations in the market.

9:13Yeah, and Mike, you had the same players. President Trump was there. He had full control of Congress. He lost full control of Congress. Fed was tightening. Fed's tightening now. And the geopolitical event back then was tariffs. Sure. And we had a very choppy end of 2018. Choppy? You went down 19 % in the end? Very end of 2018. But 2019 set up for a really nice, nice year, again, as you got some clarity in some of those geopolitical issues. It's like everything's coming up roses in your world. What concerns you then on this outlook? I mean, is there anything that came out of the hyperscaler earnings that that does concern you in terms of, you know, the impact on the core businesses, for instance, and the amount of cash they do have?

9:47Core businesses, for sure. Right. So, again, if you take a Microsoft positive versus a Google, which had the search revenue that was negative, we think kind of Google kind of figures figures that out. Amazon, same sort of thing. I think what worries us is just if you get a continued tightening of financial conditions at a time when they have to issue a ton of debt to be able to get this CapEx going. I think that tightening of financial conditions keeps us up at night. But again, the fact that a 10-year-old is below 5%, that's an environment where these hyperscalers can succeed. Okay. Phil, great to see you.

10:18Great to see you guys. Phil Camporelli. Let's get to block earnings. They are out. Mackenzie Cigalas has got the numbers. Mac? Hey there, Mel. So BlockShare is fractionally lower in extended trade after the company beat on both the top and bottom lines. Adjusted EPS came in at$1.13. That's ahead of the$1.03 Wall Street consensus and more than double where it was a year ago. That's really the payoff from this year's layoffs and cost cuts. Now, revenue coming in at$6.72 billion also topped the$6.59 billion estimate. Gross profit, really the number that Block guides to because Bitcoin sales can swing its revenue, came in at$3.24 billion versus$3.16 billion that was expected.

10:59That's up 22 percent from a year ago and faster than the 18 percent that the company guided to. Adjusted EBITDA of$1.23 billion also coming in ahead of estimates, but it is a miss in its merchant business. Square's payment volume came in at$76.36 billion. That is short of the$77.25 billion that analysts had expected, a possible sign of growing competition from the likes of Stripe and Toast. For the fourth quarter, Block is guiding to adjusted EPS of$1.15. That is right in line with the streets. So really the big question when the call kicks off at five, is this a sign that growth is cooling or just Block being more conservative?

11:38And real quick here on Cash App, guys, it's up to 60 million monthly transacting actives. That's 1.5 percent higher sequentially. But we did see Cash App gross profit jumped 27 percent from a year ago, something that we'll also be sure to hear likely from CEO Jack Dorsey on the call. Those shares still fractionally lower now. Yep, just a little bit. Mac, thanks so much. Well, there's been a narrative in the markets that the markets can rally once the midterms are out of the way, but that might depend on how they turn out, of course, and what's already priced in and expected. Let's bring in Eamon Javers now for more on what is at stake today.

12:12Eamon. Yeah, Mike, it always depends on how the election turns out, right? Voting is taking place now across the country, and so far everything appears to be going smoothly. Balance of power in Washington is on the line here, and in the Senate, we're watching five key races to determine who controls that chamber, including in Alaska, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, and Maine. Those are likely to be the key states there. Alaska and Texas, you wouldn't have thought a year ago where we'd be looking at those as potential battleground states. But here we are, how things have changed. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are looking ahead to a potentially volatile post-election period, assuming Democrats will have a good night tonight.

12:52Analysts expect President Trump to become more aggressive after the election, with Piper Sandler writing that the president might try to upend the status quo in the Persian Gulf, increase tariffs significantly, step up his attacks on the independence of the Fed, demand Treasury Secretary Scott Besant take a more activist approach to try to lower interest rates. And while Democrats may push for tax increases, higher regulation, tougher antitrust enforcement, and higher domestic spending, they're not likely to get any of that signed by this president. But you can expect potentially aggressive investigations of the Trump family's business dealings if Democrats are to take one or the other chamber tonight.

13:34But here's the key exception, populism, ideas like interest rate caps on credit cards, an increase in the minimum wage or a crackdown on data centers. All of those ideas pull well among both Republicans and Democrats, and they could be coming in 2027, guys. Back over to you. Yeah, on the data center point, Eamon, which, of course, swings a huge percentage of, you know, the stock indexes, I've seen a lot of Wall Street focusing in actually on the Texas governor's race as the linchpin, essentially saying if Governor Abbott retains the seat, then, you know, the worst case scenarios from the data center build out perspective is not going to happen.

14:12It's almost like kind of looking for some way to declare a win come tomorrow. Yeah. Look, you know, when you talk to political professionals here in Washington, they talk about the velocity of opinion on data centers. And a lot of them will tell you they've never seen anything like it. And no other issue have they seen move as fast and dramatically as they have public opinion on data centers moving against the tech industry. So that's one where, although the president has said, you know, he's four data centers, every community should build one. A lot of politicians around the country are going to be looking at that same data, that velocity data and saying, look, that is a speeding train I don't want to stand in front of.

14:47And so they'll at least nominally be willing to sign on to some data center control things if those are passed in Washington. And then, of course, you're right, state by state, that'll play out as well. Yeah, I got to see how much of it was a campaign issue and how much of it's going to be a governing principle. Eamon, thank you so much. You bet. Booking holdings earnings are out. Contessa Brewer has the numbers. Contessa. Yeah, Mike, we're seeing here that the earnings per share is coming in at$4.66 adjusted against revenue of$8.89 billion. That's compared to what the street had expected of$9.5 billion.

15:24But let me just explain. There's a little bit of a convoluted nature to this report because there's an FTC adjustment, a matter that they're talking here. That's about$900 million. And so there's some adjustments to be made on that front. The headline is you saw room nights growing 10 percent this quarter over the same time last year. You're seeing the gross bookings at$54.5 billion. That's a beat, a beat on adjusted EBITDA, a beat on the room nights at$345 million. The other thing that we're seeing is some slowing down of international travel. Glenn Fogel, the CEO, says in the release that some of this is due to the conflict in the Middle East and certainly what we saw in Saudi Arabia.

16:06We've seen other companies report that as well, but also says there's the trickle down effect of how much airfare now costs. And they're seeing that play out in international travel, but that domestic travel remains resilient here as well. The stock is up just fractionally at this point. The call starts in about 15 minutes. Melissa. Contessa, thanks. Contessa Brewer and E shares are jumping around, but higher by almost a percent. The earnings are out. Seema Modi's got the numbers. Seema. Hey, Melissa. Advanced Micro Devices delivering a sizable beat on its bottom line. Earnings per share of$2.09 versus the$1.95 estimate.

16:41Quarterly revenue ahead of the street at$13.38 billion. The estimate was for$13.1. and take a look at the data center segment sales nearly doubling year over year and coming out ahead of consensus at$8.5 billion, up 97 % year on year. A different story for client and gaming sales, which were down about 8 % year on year. And if we just break out gaming specifically, that business saw sales decline by around 40 % due to lower semi-custom and graphics revenue. If we take a step back and look at non-GAAP gross margins, in line with the street at 56 percent and sort of a mixed fourth quarter guide.

17:17It does see sales coming in at 17 billion. That's higher than the 16.2 estimate. But gross margins expected at around 55 percent, slightly below the street estimate of 55.3, but sort of pulling hairs there, guys. We will look for more comments on the PC market specifically. They don't break out that line item. So we'll have to wait for CEO Lisa Su to address the PC market, what they're seeing there at 5 p.m. Eastern when the call begins. Yep, certainly, of course, you think of Intel and what they told the street. Seema, thank you. Seema Modi and the stock is, as Seema mentioned, higher by almost 6%.

17:53A little bit of a relief for sure. The earnings beat, I mean, the revenue beat$13.3 billion. It looks like a little bit short of what some of the whispers were on the buy side of more than 13.4, but otherwise pretty much right in line. Worth noting, you mentioned the Intel report. Yeah. Advanced Micro closed at like 566 on the day that Intel delivered its downside surprise. So we're still at 514. Plenty, plenty of room to claw back. Yeah. Yeah. Up next, instant reaction to the results from AMD. Stacey Raskin will join us right after this break with his thoughts. Stay tuned.

18:54We'll be right back. and timely utility payments. Vantage Score safely broadens access to the credit economy and brings 5 million mortgage-ready borrowers into the market. That's why top lenders like Rocket Mortgage, as well as nine of the top 10 banks, rely on Vantage Score 4.0. With higher predictability and greater access to credit, everybody wins. Get started at VantageScore.com. Hi, football legend Clay Matthews here. Caesar Sportsbook has completely transformed their app. Better design, new ways to bet like flex parlays, more rewards, smoother UI. It's barely recognizable. So bet with Caesar Sportsbook, the app that's been nipped and tucked to perfection.

19:38Must be 21. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. It's the holiday season at House of Burrell, which means that it's the perfect moment to review some key rules. Rule number five, more style means more celebration. Number four, buy gifts, but remember to treat yourself too. Number three, there is no dress code, but always leave them talking. Number two, show off different outfits. No party remains unattended. And rule number one, have it all without spending it all. Happy holidays from House of Burl, Burlington.

20:17Another look at AMD. The stock jumping in after hours, trading after a strong regular session, shares up 6.4 percent. That's after hours. Company reporting a strong beat on the bottom line and the data center segment topping expectations as well, while nearly doubling versus last year. Joining us now is Stacey Raskin. He is senior analyst at Bernstein with an outperformed rating and a$650 price target on AMD. Stacey, good to see you. Obviously, So, your stock's been, you know, along with the rest in the penalty box. Does this get it out? Certainly will help, right? I mean, it's taking it on the chin after Intel's results.

20:55As you recall, that stock's been down a ton. They had very poor client revenues. PC's markets have been in a lot of pressure, given the memory dynamics. And there were tons of worries that AMD would have the same fate. And it's actually looking a lot better. A &B's client revenues did come in a little light, but I don't think that is shocking at all. And I think they over-delivered versus what Intel did. In the meantime, the data center business, which is what everybody really cares about, is really over-delivering. They came in something like$300 million above the street. And then the revenue guide for next quarter is well above consensus.

21:28I don't know the relative mix of data center and client in the guide at this point, but I think it's unlikely the data center or the implied data center number is going to disappoint, given where the overall revenue is. And if Clank is a headwind, the rest of the business is strong enough to, I think, more than overpower it. And again, this is not something that their larger competitor necessarily saw. Yeah, clearly the guidance into the end of the year is very different from what Intel gave us, Stacey. But in terms of what AMD can say about the PC market, in terms of what AMD can say about the pressure of memory prices rising into the next year, do you think they can escape the headwinds that Intel is facing?

22:10Yes and no. They probably can't escape it. That's a market issue. But it's less of an issue for AMD. You have to remember, like, in Q3, like, the client group for Intel was almost half their revenues. Like, for AMD, it's kind of upper teens. And as you go forward, AMD has more data center drivers. They're still over-delivering on servers. Intel's manufacturing footprint right now is still a little off-size, and so they're having a hard time getting the revenue to supply the demand. And they also had that Israel issue that cost them some data center revenue. AMD's not suffering from any of that.

22:43And they also have the ramp of their new Helios MI450 product, which should be starting now and drives growth into next year. And so given all of that, the client piece of it is just a much smaller piece of their revenue than Intel. I think it's a lot easier for them, given the other drivers in the business, to work through it. So what do you most want to get some color on here? I mean, given the fact that, you know, the entire group has been punished because of the sort of longer term concerns about pace and sustainability of spending and all the rest of it, what reassurance might you be looking for?

23:18Yeah, I think there's a few things. I'd want to see what they see for their own server CPU growth, because the whole like agentic CPU story has really been pushing a number of names in the space. I'd like to see if they have any further revisions to their views or they've been very positive. Secondly, I'd like to see sort of the pace and trajectory of this MI450 Helios ramp. Again, this is the quarter Q4 should be when it really starts. And they've got a number of big wins that should be ramping next year. And so what does the shape of that look like? And then thirdly, I'd like to get a look at gross margins next year.

23:50The guidance for gross margin was a little light. They guided 55 and a half. We're at 55. That's where they guided. I'm sorry. The stream was at 55 and a half. They guided 55. We're at 55. The AI GPU business does have lower gross margins, and it's got a lot of memory content as well. And even other players like NVIDIA haven't been able to fully offset the memory cost inflation. So I'd like to see where they want to decide to put gross margins next year. But I'd say given what we're seeing right now, at least in DQ4, the margin trajectory at this point looks okay to me. But those are the three things I'd want to hear on this call.

24:28OK, so I'm just curious, Stacey, because it seems like their customers have not escaped investor skepticism even after reporting earnings. And so to that extent, do you think that this group just gets continued to be caught up no matter almost no matter what they say? And just the concerns about the hyperscalers, their ability to finance a build out that, you know, the ability of it or the willingness of investors to finance that build out. You have to remember, at least for AMD, a number of the ramps they have into 2027, they actually gave warrants for those, which I don't really like, but I do understand.

25:03I always say Lisa had to be on the rocket so she bought her ticket. And the value of the warrants that they've granted in some sense are almost equivalent to the value of the parts that they're selling. So I'm not really worried about the AMD, the ability of their named customers to finance at least the AMD trajectory at this point. I think for the broader universe, this is a concern. Like, the numbers have just gotten so big. You know, people worry about financing. They worry about power. And I think we're just going to have to, over the next several quarters, just see those buildouts happen and hopefully get confidence.

25:35And so I don't know what AMD can say to move sentiment on that one way or the other. I will say, however, that the only ones that really seem to be worried at this point are investors. The companies that are actually out there in the mix of this and actually doing the spending and doing the deployment. they do not seem terribly worried at this point. Stacey, great to get your thoughts. Thank you, Stacey Rasgun. Conference call, by the way, starts at 5 o 'clock, so I'll keep posting on that. We'll hear more from AMD chair and CEO Lisa Suh tomorrow in a first-on CNBC interview at 9 a.m. Eastern time.

26:05Up next, what is causing a couple big-name hedge fund managers to draw comparisons to the Great Depression? Plus, we'll discuss Disney's ambitious cost-cutting plan. Closing bell overtime live from the Nasdaq MarketSite continues right after this.

26:48We'll be right back. Burrell services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. It's the holiday season at House of Burrell, which means that it's the perfect moment to review some key rules. Rule number five, more style means more celebration. Number four, buy gifts, but remember to treat yourself too. Number three, there is no dress code, but always leave them talking. Number two, show off different outfits. No party remains unattended. And rule number one, have it all without spending it all. Happy holidays from House of Burl, Burlington. You know, Kevin, sometimes I feel like computers are the only thing around here that are getting smarter.

27:27Yeah, my model hasn't had an update in a while. But that changes now. We think that we can smarten these listeners up about all things related to this crazy new future. Welcome to Machine Gods, a new NPR podcast that will be your guide to the AI future. Twice a week, we're going to help you get smarter about AI so you know what's real, what's hype, and what you should probably install on your phone. Listen to Machine Gods from NPR on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

28:07The labor market getting a jolt of good news ahead of Friday's October jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting job openings increased by a much larger than expected, 333 ,000 in September. The number of hires rising by 131 ,000, while workers leaving their jobs voluntarily jumping by 321 ,000. That indicates their confidence in finding new jobs. Layoffs falling by 127 ,000. But the labor picture at Disney isn't as rosy. Sources telling CNBC that Disney's planning to cut several thousand jobs in the latest round of layoffs by new CEO Josh DeMauro. Those sources also saying some managers being told to cut costs by up to 20 percent.

28:47Disney warned of more staff reductions in its earnings report in August. I don't know how contrary these things are. Obviously, Disney in a mature business, they've been in this kind of managed retreat in parts of the media industry. The Jolts number, I think, definitely a positive. It's affirming of labor demand. If you look back, let's say year to date, it seems like it's kind of bumping along the same range. And remember, it's a September number, which was a month in which we got payroll growth of like 29 ,000. So not super strong, but it's better than it could be for sure. Yeah. I thought that quits right.

29:19People are barely leaving their job highest in more than a year. That was really optimistic. Obviously, you don't leave your job unless you think you can get another one. So that was sort of a surprise. And the quits to layoffs ratio is also very reassuring at this point. But then you remember Microsoft saying 60 ,000 buyers. So, you know, it feels like this stuff is picking up. Not all of it makes its way into the aggregate numbers. It's kind of mysterious. Well, Bill Ackman becoming the latest to sound the alarm about the amount of risk and leverage, saying some days he feels as if the markets are broken.

29:48We're back to the casino type markets when there was 95 % leverage. I don't think that's inherently good for the economy, for society. And it's leading to these massive moves in stocks. But Ackman also saying those swings can create opportunities, saying he bought Microsoft during the Sasspocalypse earlier this year. Elliott Management also echoing that sentiment in its recent newsletter, saying every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market is ringing right now, due in part to debt-fueled risk-taking. Now, specifically, when Ackman's talking about 95 percent leverage, he's talking about various products, derivative products and leverage products.

30:25And actually, Elliott makes mention of that, too, in terms of zero-day options and things like that, that are sort of amplifying these moves in very large stocks. There's no doubt about it. There are now more ways to lose your money quickly than there ever have been before through these instruments. On the other hand, I don't think there was ever a time in the imagined past when stock moves were smooth and all investors were sober long-term players. The casino is a lot closer to what the New York Stock Exchange started as than the capital formation long term. So I understand that. I also know that these are a couple of hedge fund managers who really like to play big when there's dislocations.

31:07And when they feel like they have the odds and their fear, they're not going to be trying to ride long term uptrends when everybody already owns the popular stuff. So, you know, you take it with a grain of salt and also recognize that we do have, you know, a lot of opportunity in these markets for spring-loaded moves and really inexplicable ones. And for Elliott in particular, I mean, whose performance is not matching the markets. That's right. This is the explanation for their underperformance. Right. This is not the kind of market for an Elliott. Yeah. All right. Time for a CNBC News update with Julia Borsten.

31:37Julia. Mike, the Justice Department is reportedly ramping up its investigation into the recruitment of a nearly identical named candidate in Alaska's Senate race. According to the New York Times, which cites two people with knowledge of the move, the DOJ sent letters to about 20 Democrats telling them they might be targets in the investigation. The recipients reportedly include the prominent elections lawyer Mark Elias, whose firm has represented Dan Sullivan's Democratic challenger, Mary Pelota. Spain's transport minister stepped down today following two deadly high-speed train crashes this year.

32:13The most recent collision last week killed at least 69 people, and an accident on the same line in January killed 46 people. And Major League Baseball officials have proposed delaying the start of a salary cap until 2028. They say teams have made too many commitments for next season to be able to reduce their spending quickly enough. Owners have suggested the league adopt a$258 million cap for 2028 and a mandatory floor of$180 million. Back over to you. All right, Julia, thank you very much. Well, data center backlash is a big topic on the minds of midterm voters, and especially so in Texas. Up next, the CEO of a Lone Star State data center company on what the outcome of today's vote could mean for the future of his industry.

32:59Plus, much more reaction to this big hour of earnings when Fast Money's Tim Seymour tells us how he's trading AMD following its results. Closing Bell Overtime. We'll be right back.

33:12Welcome back to Closing Bell Overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. The Dow losing 200 points, the S &P 500 adding three-tenths of a percent today. The NASDAQ snapping a three-session losing streak. Chip stocks were the leaders in the regular session, and that could continue tomorrow thanks to strong results from AMD. The stock up eight after hours, beating on earnings and revenue as well. Also issuing strong guidance, Bernstein's Stacey Raskin also pointing out strength in its data center business. Data centers helping bloom energy as well, up 9 % in the regular session. Barclays upgrading the stock to overweight, saying demand is inflecting more sharply than expected.

33:50Well, data centers have been one of the hot issues on the ballot this election day, with citizens concerned about the strain on local resources. Meanwhile, data center developers champion the economic benefits. 41 measures related to data centers are on the ballot today across 10 states where voters will choose whether to impose moratoria or other restrictions. For more on the future of the AI build-out, let's bring in Chris Crosby, CEO of developer Compass Data Centers. Chris, great to have you with us. Thank you. I've read the notes here, and it sounds like you're saying all the right things to the communities in terms of, you know, proving that you're going to bring economic benefit to the community, being a real partner in the buildout, et cetera.

34:29So how do you see this playing out in terms of whether or not elections will actually influence the buildout here? Is it going to just be a talking point and the buildout continues? Or where do you stand? Look, I think there's real risk. I think that, look, not every data center developer is always doing the right things. And, you know, there is a bar that needs to be raised for our industry. We formed Infrastructure for America as an industry group with some of our peers to get that going and really establish a better way to do this so that communities can be better informed about the difference between a Ritz-Carlton type of approach versus a Red Roof Inn.

35:11Presumably you're doing the Ritz-Carlton approach. I mean, how much is that at all a competitive advantage, you know, demonstrably on the ground in terms of getting approvals, moving projects along, and how much of it is just the way you'd prefer to operate? Well, look, I think you're talking about 100-year type assets. So the long-term nature of these assets, there are some fast and very quick type of builds that are out there that I know I wouldn't want in my community. And so I think it's more of a social license question in terms of building these facilities the right way. And in terms of the right way, I mean, there's a lot of pressure also on the local level, the municipality level, in terms of demanding certain things like bring your own power.

35:55And I'm wondering how we should think about it. How should investors think about in terms of how much stricter, what the barriers are at this point in terms of power and how we should think about, well, if there are going to be more power requirements, bring your own power, then we should think about those who provide that on-site power generation. What has changed? Look, I think across the board, everything changed a little less than a year ago when the executive order on data centers came out from the president. And our enemies propagandized totally legitimate local concerns everywhere. And all of them got propagandized into every single data center building.

36:34Kind of a genius approach if you're one of the U.S.'s enemies. But it doesn't change the fact that those are legitimate local concerns. And we have to address those as an industry. I think it's the growth of our industry. It's no different than what's happened in other forms in the energy space. Solar, wind, fracking, I think is one of the better analogies where the better players really rose the game and got the Wildcatters out of the business because those Wildcatters were hurting communities. And do you have any doubts about, you know, regardless of the regulatory side of things, but the multi-year sustainability of the appetite for all this data center capacity?

37:11I mean, have you kind of tried to test your projections in terms of what the end demand is going to be? You know, it's been astonishing. I've been, I was computer science back when I started my career and watching IT grow. And we're on this exponential curve right now where everything that we're doing, including this right now, is touching a data center somewhere. So I think that there's a lot of factors at play. But unlike, let's say, the telecom boom or the dot-com boom, The demand here is so real. It is very real demand. It doesn't mean that all the business models are doing the right thing.

37:44It doesn't mean that all the business models are going to work. But I do believe firmly that this is the greatest build out of an enabling technology since electricity. Chris, thanks for your time. Chris Crosby. Thank you. We're seeing block shares higher by about 8 percent right now. Let's get back to Mackenzie Cigales for more on the results and the comments. Mac. So, Mel, it looks like a strong 2027 outlook is behind this boost that we're seeing after hours, especially around profit. So, Block expects gross profit to grow at least 15 percent. It's citing AI investments, then adjusted operating income now is expected to climb 30 percent to nearly$4.6 billion at a 32 percent margin.

38:24That is really a direct answer to bears who had worried that margin gains would stall after this year. And what it means is that Block is essentially hitting its 2028 profit goal a year early. One other quick note here, Mel. Block is now talking about AI as a new revenue line, saying that it expects its first machine intelligence revenue to show up in the Q4 print. Those shares up more than almost eight and a half percent after hours now. All right, Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Sigalos. Up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour will tell us how he is trading AMD and some of these other big earnings movers. As we count down to the analyst call, stay tuned.

39:01Let's get a check on some of the other big after-hours movers. Arista Networks jumping after beating on earnings and revenue, also seeing fourth-quarter guidance ahead of expectations. Those stocks up about 10%. Skyworks moving sharply lower as its first-quarter guidance is well short of what the street is expecting, blaming declining smartphone revenue, including softness in the Android market. Those shares off 15%. Duolingo higher despite an earnings miss. The company issued strong guidance and user growth. shares up 11%. Another big winner of the after-hour session, AMD. That stock is sharply higher, almost 9 % gain here, reporting a strong beat on the bottom line, and its Q4 revenue outlook also coming in ahead of estimates.

39:41Joining us now is Tim Seymour, Seymour Asset Management's CIO, and of course, a fast money trader. Tim, good to see you. Great to be here. A sigh of relief, certainly, I mean, after that Intel report, but this doesn't really do much in terms of moving it back to pre-Intel levels. No, it doesn't. And in fact, going into this print. It was down, I think, almost 24 percent on the month. If you look at where the options had this implied move, it's like right here. It said kind of eight to nine percent. And so the good news here is that Intel's issues in PC and in a consumer class is not exactly where AMD is.

40:15In fact, when AMD started eating Intel's lunch, it was in the data center. The data center story is really impressive. The GPU story we think is exciting. They've got a Helios ramp in the second half. I mean, it's just they're two very different stories. And AMD really is focused on the demand side of the story. Intel is focused on can they even get the job done? It's actually fascinating when you think the story remains that AMD doesn't have to really take that much market share in data center relative to where Nvidia is to keep growing. I guess that becomes a little bit less of a talking point as AMD grows.

40:47I mean, it's like 50 billion in revenue this year for AMD total, $400 for NVIDIA. But, I mean, I think AMD is supposed to get to close to$100 in a couple of years. Well, and that's why this is a real nice number, too. And that's why also when you look at a couple of years, the street has no problem doing their valuations. You can get 25 times 28 numbers of$25 a share and go to$650. No problem. And I think that's part of where we are. But AMD has a very distant number, too, but a very solid number, too, I think, in a data center. And again, the buy side whisper was significantly better than the sell side.

41:23And they're kind of there. And we'll wait at 5 o 'clock. We're going to get some numbers and really get the guide. We're seeing across the board here chips stocks higher in the after-ar session. No surprise here. But you always make the point we have to see semiconductors bounce in order for the whole markets to actually convincingly bounce. This is the greatest test of the semi rally in three years, I think. I mean, Liberation Day on some level doesn't even count. So if you take the charts back, the test of the 200-day, we really haven't had it. And I do think there is an opportunity. I'm not sure you have to go in and buy them, but I think if you're picking a couple names, and I still think NVIDIA is safe treading.

42:00We wait a few weeks for that. But not an emphatic bounce after you consider all that. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Today was the day when semis were up. Yeah, I mean, 200-day, it's basically at the July lows. A lot of people saying it's the perfect post-bubble chart and you're going to get bounces. But, you know, got to see. Maybe you don't have to worry about where the highs were if they can start to get some traction here. Again, the higher quality names are fine. I think memory is still going to be a much more difficult debate. Long-term contracts, who cares? That kind of thing. Sure. Tim, thanks a lot.

42:31Thank you. All right. Investors have not been loving McDonald's, which has been one of the worst performers in the Dow this year. Up next, an analyst who is still bullish on the stock tells us whether tomorrow's earnings can help turn things around.

42:51Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. On the economic front, we'll get the September U.S. trade deficit, as well as the October ADP jobs report and ISM services. Plus, it'll be another big day of earnings with McDonald's, Kraft Heinz, Uber, CVS, and Novo Nordisk reporting before the bell. And after the bell, we will get results from Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, Expedia, DoorDash, and Snap. Well, let's talk more about McDonald's. The stock has been under pressure this year, down 14 percent on cautious consumer spending, slowing U.S. sales growth and declining customer traffic. So what should investors be watching for in tomorrow's results?

43:23Joining us now is BTIG Managing Director Peter Saleh. Peter, good to have you join us. It feels like the comps performance has been a little bit bumpy. What are you expecting there? And then I guess it's also about progress on some of the sort of retooling of the actual stores. Yes. So thanks for having me on. Yeah, you're right. Look, I think the third quarter, we had a really weak July and August. September improved. I think October is a good month, not as good as September, but we're seeing some sequential improvement as well on the same sort of sales trends. Look, if you notice over the summer, they started to pull back from those steep discounts on TV and started to position themselves a little bit more towards quality.

44:10And I think that's going to be the message from the QSR industry going forward. I think that's really good for the industry. I think it's really good for McDonald's. I don't think discounts are going away, but I think those steep, steep discounts and that battle, that value war, I think is slowly coming to an end. I don't think anybody has really won that value war. The same time, though, Peter, in the last earnings report, there was an issue with franchisees executing that value menu. And I'm wondering if you're getting any data points that it's improved. They have not really advertised that menu.

44:45They've kind of essentially backed away from it. I think they're retooling to reconsider another value menu at some point in 2027. At this point, they're looking at the extra value meals as their call it value proposition in the near term. In my view, I think that's probably the right move forward. Again, steep discounts really haven't driven any incremental traffic for anybody. And I'm not exactly sure why the industry continues to go back to that position. Peter, you highlight maybe some tensions among franchisees and the parent company about some of the store renovations and some of these other programs that McDonald's wants to push through.

45:24I'm sure there's kind of a natural level of friction among franchisees and McDonald's itself. But how does that stand right now? And what's your expectation for how that program is going to go? So, Mike, you're right. A healthy level of friction or a little bit of friction is always good. It means that capital is finding the best uses, best ROI. This level of friction is a little much in our view. What McDonald's is essentially asking them to do is remodel their stores. This remodel costs about$1.2 to$1.3 million. In essence, it's about 1.7 times the annual cash flow of a McDonald's store is what they're asking the franchisees to put up.

46:08If you compare that to their prior remodel, it was 1.2 times cash flow. So it's significantly more expensive for the franchisees. And it hasn't really been proven out in terms of the returns. So I think there's more work to do here. I don't think this Project Next moves forward in the current capacity. I think you would need to test it more. You would need to value engineer it, bring down the cost, and maybe have more contribution for McDonald's corporate for the franchisees to be aligned on this type of project. All right. Should be an interesting release tomorrow. Peter, thanks. Peter Saleh, BTIG on McDonald's.

46:44McDonald's one of those stocks that did have this little vertical move off of the lows because even though it's not technically consumer staples, it fell into the kind of quality and stability bucket, which now is kind of running into a little bit of a headwind, I would say. Right. You know, you've seen the staples back off today. But mostly because of valuation. And McDonald's doesn't have that problem at this point. That's true. No, it's definitely not more expensive. It's much more about was the actual buying about anything except people fleeing semiconductors and other AI-related stocks. Unfortunately, that's the market we've had for a while where it's all about just sort of one thing is down mainly because the other one's up.

47:20Yep. All right. And we're going to see if we get some results tomorrow and whether that creates a bit of tension release. because you did have the VIX close at 20 today, as I mentioned, even though S &P did barely anything. That's a little bit of a mismatch. That's going to do it for overtime today. Fast Money starts right after this quick break.

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