Closing Bell Overtime: Oracle, Adobe, Copper Pulls Back From Record 9/10/26

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1:13Major averages fall for the fourth straight day. The Dow down more than 300 points, a little more than half a percent for the S &P 500. The Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100, though, losing a percent. And today was all about big round numbers. Crude is back above$100 a barrel. That's its eighth straight day of gains, rallying nearly 20 percent over that stretch. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hitting 7 percent, the highest level since May of 2025. Heating oil hits$5, a new post-Iran war high. The 10-year yield quickly approaching 5 percent, and the chances of a Fed rate hike hits 70 percent. And it's not quite a round number, but close.

1:50Diesel prices in five stations in California hit$9.99 a gallon. This, according to GasBuddy. And the likely reason it didn't get to a nice round 10, the pumps simply can't display it. Wow. So maybe actually more than that, and they just can't show it. Need some four-digit readouts, yeah. We live in that world. But, I mean, I don't know. If we told you all of the sort of factors going on, all those nice round numbers, the PPI, which, by the way, the components, the PPI that feed into the PC, all of those got hotter. Yes. Would you have said the markets would land where they did? Probably not. I probably would have thought you might see a little more damage.

2:25Now, the S &P did kind of probe below its recent range and you got back to these levels from from May and June. But it's trying to continue to localize the damage. So small caps get hit. Rate sensitive stuff gets hit. Also, some really flux in the relationships today because oil prices were soaring. Energy stocks were down on average. You also had, you know, consumer cyclicals. They've been weak for a while. Today, with rates and oil flying, they actually didn't underperform. So I don't know if the market is trying to say, hey, we already did our damage where we needed to. I still think it'd be lucky to get out of this phase with just a 3 percent pullback in the headline S &P 500.

3:04Resolution from CPI obviously is desired tomorrow one way or the other. Yeah, I thought what was interesting in terms of a single stock move, which may sort of be symbolic to the markets, is the move in Apple that we saw today up 3.6 percent. I mean, this just shows you at more than 30 times forward in this sort of market that is defensive stock. And what they showed yesterday was enough to keep the bulls in the stock even at these valuations. I mean, I jokingly compared it to Coca-Cola, which always was an expensive stock because it was never going to go away as a product. And Warren Buffett loved it for that reason.

3:33And, you know, semis were down today. It's like every day just a new weather system decides whether semis are up or down. And if semis are down, NVIDIA was the biggest downside contributor today. Apple's up. Yeah. And Apple added a net quarter of a percent to the S &P 500, kind of on nothing except that it was the opposite of semis. So let's get more on the 10 years climb toward 5 percent following a 30 year auction and buybacks this afternoon. Rick Santelli in Chicago has it all for us. Rick. Yeah, Mike, it was a long, wild day. If you're watching that Treasury Complex, let's look at a couple of relationships.

4:09Let's look at a 12-hour of two-year in oil, and you can see they look pretty darn similar. And now let's pair up 10-year in oil. The reason I did them on separate charts, if I put all of those on one chart, it looks at a percentage versus patterns. And with oil up, what, 6%, it would just be a flat line compared to Treasuries. Now, Treasury yields really had their big move on PPI this morning. And we could argue that, yes, it was as expected. So if that's your litmus test, as expected, no real huge surprises. But when you look at where the numbers actually are, 5.4, 4.6, 4.7, those are your three year-over-year.

4:52Year-over-year headline, XFood Energy, XFood Energy and Trade. You know, these are lofty areas, and the market's paying attention. Now, the two-year yield at current levels would continue to be the highest yield close since July of 24. The tens since October of 23. Tens are up a baker's dozen right now, 13 basis points. Excuse me, twos are up 13 basis points. Tens are up about 11. And as you said, Mike, we are aiming for 5%. I have very little doubt it's going to get there. And if we look at Fed Fund futures, I love this chart. This is a week to date. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, not much going on.

5:31And today, of course, boom, when it goes down. When it goes down, hike percentages go up. You pointed out 70 percent. I think right now, last I looked, it was 73 percent. But with CPI tomorrow, we could be at 40. We could be at 90. I would look for a lot of movement. And when you get this close to a meeting, a couple of basis points in those contracts for Fed funds makes a big difference in the probabilities. Back to you. You know, Rick, there's a lot of discussion. I think a little bit of disagreement as to let's say the CPI tomorrow kind of endorses the idea of a rate hike next week. Does that re-anchor the long end or is it going to kind of give it a further push higher?

6:12Well, everybody on CNBC that I saw thinks if they do a hike on the short and obviously Fed funds that you'll see long rates move lower. I think there's a lot of logic to that, but I don't subscribe to it because I think a good part of what we're seeing outside of oil and war and maybe a good economy, at least it was a couple of weeks ago, is the fact that we have a normalization going on. It was just less than a handful of years ago we were at half of 1 % in a 10-year. Normalization dictates that we're going to be coming back. Europe and Asia have to come back even harder because they were in negative rates.

6:50Then add in the ECB raise. The Bank of Japan is going to be raising potentially on multiple occasions. And I think the global dynamics are very clear. Rates are going up. Debt's going up. because stimulus spending, especially in Europe, has to go up because their economies are in the mud. Rick, thanks. Rick Santelli. Crude prices weighing on the market once again after it hit its highest level since May. Pippa Stevens got more of that. Pippa. Hey, Melissa, so WTI joining Brent in triple-digit territory as fighting escalates and the timeline keeps getting pushed out for when the war might end. President Trump claiming it will end immediately after the midterm elections.

7:27But the Wall Street Journal reporting White House advisers have said it could drag on until inauguration day in 2029. Analysts warning that these erratic attacks increase the probability of a miscalculation and a wider regional conflict. Meantime, heating oil futures topping$5 for the first time since 2022, meaning we could see$6 on the national average for diesel as soon as tomorrow. And we did get the latest inventory report today, which showed a build and distill at stockpiles, although levels are still 13 percent below the five-year average here in the U.S. And looking at individual regions, New England inventories are now at a record low, which is problematic since heating season starts in just a few weeks.

8:08Only about 4 percent of households across the U.S. use heating oil, but one-third of households use it in New England. Now, as gasoline and diesel prices march higher, Patrick DeHaan over at Gas Buddy saying it's now costing consumers an extra$700 million per day or nearly$5 billion per week. Guys? Pippa, what role do you think and analysts think China's playing in this latest surge in oil prices? Because the last time oil prices surged, China was basically on a buying hiatus. They already had their reserves. They were working off of those. But now they seem to be back in the market. That's right.

8:41China is very much back in the market here. We saw an uptick in their buying last month that continues to trend higher. And what's interesting here is that we used to talk in oil markets about the swing producer. But now we're talking very much about the swing consumer, and that has been China. But we've seen them draw down their inventories. And then as they've lost access to some Russian and Iranian barrels trading at a discount, they're looking elsewhere. And that is certainly driving up prices. One thing, though, is that we have to also keep an eye on their fuel product exports because those have also been trending higher.

9:10And that, while raising the price of oil, could actually bring down the price of petroleum products. And, of course, China is trying to be careful here about the extent to which other economies are damaged thanks to those high diesel prices, particularly for industry and agriculture. And so if we see an increase in their product exports, that could be helpful on the fuel side, but will certainly raise the price of crude. That will lead to some weakness in the refining stock since that means their crack spreads will come down a little bit. For sure. Pippa, thank you. Adobe earnings are out. Seema Modi has the number.

9:44Seema. Adobe reporting a beat on earnings, Mike. $6.13 adjusted versus the estimate of$6.09. Revenue coming in above expectations at$6.76 billion. When we look at the guide, a weaker revenue guide for the fourth quarter, while its earnings per share estimate is in line, you could say, in line with the midpoint. We're looking at comments here from outgoing CEO Shantanu Narayan saying the company's delivering record third quarter results, reflecting the strength of our AI innovation, expanding customer reach and leadership across creativity, productivity, and customer experience. We'll now look to the call, guys, and comments from the new CEO, Anil Chakravarti, who has been a longtime executive at the company on his vision, how he plans to articulate the company's AI strategy, and will it be seen as more defensive versus novel in the company's approach?

10:38That's been sort of the concern around Adobe, given what we've been seeing in the stock. Yes, up about 35 percent as part of this broader rally we've seen in software in recent weeks, but still well below its recent high, guys. More thoughts on the call when it begins at 5 p.m. Eastern. All right, Seema, thank you. Despite some of the seeming headwinds facing the market, we just discussed the S &P 500 is less than 3 percent from its all-time high. The VIX remains below 18. UBS CEO Sergio Armadi out with a warning overnight that investors have grown too complacent. So should you be worried about a serious drawdown in the coming weeks?

11:14Joining us now is New Edge Wealth CIO Cameron Dawson and Nomura Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist Andrew Goldberg. Welcome to you both. I mean, Swiss Bank CEOs are paid to worry on one level. On the other, Cameron, it's interesting how, you know, you've basically had this debate as to whether the market internally has recognized some of these macro challenges, where oil's gone, where yields are going, and it's kind of administered the pain where it has to be felt. But is that enough in September? I mean, it is really incredible that we have this day where we have the tenure of 11 basis points.

11:50You have oil well above$100 a barrel, and you're having the S &P down just about 60 bips. You're down, just as you said, 3 % from all-time highs. You barely just broke your 50-day moving average. But some of that resilience on the surface does mask a lot of weakness we're seeing underneath the surface. You've seen a big deterioration in breadth over the last month. A month ago, 70 percent of names were above their 50-day moving average. Today, it's 37 percent. So a lot of this weakness is under the surface, and the strength is really because the MAG-7 has been holding up. But I'd also flag MAG-7 hasn't made a new high since May, so it's sideways.

12:26Sorry, let's take a pause here. Oracle shares are surging 8%. The earnings are out. Seema Modi's got the number. Seema. Melissa and Mike, it's a big beat for Oracle. Earnings per share coming in at$1.92 adjusted versus the estimate of$1.74. Revenue did accelerate in the quarter to$19.3 billion versus the$19.14 billion estimate. And Oracle's all-important cloud infrastructure business saw revenue jump by 121 % year-over-year to$7.4 billion. That did surpass estimates and does signal, you could say, a clear increase in demand for its AI compute data centers. Remaining performance obligations, that's a good gauge on backlog, did rise to$664 billion.

13:07That is better than the$631 billion estimate. Interestingly enough, second guidance, second quarter guidance is in line. Full year 2027 numbers do look above estimates here. Shares are responding positively up about 7.24 percent. The company also saying in regards to financing that it has completed its 20 billion dollar equity issuance plan. We'll look for comments now on the call on how the company is looking to continue to fund the A.I. build out following that 20 million, 20 billion dollar equity issuance. The 50 billion dollar debt plan they put together earlier this year. this company has been seen sort of at the forefront and articulating how it's looking to fund the build-out, leaning on the debt and equity market, guys.

13:50And we'll be watching this one close to a good test for the AI trade. All right. Seema, thanks, Seema Modi. Just taking a look at the numbers, because it was a big beat on the adjusted for the Q1. But for the full year, it's only three cents higher than expectations. So you have to wonder. So less than the magnitude of the speed. Exactly, than the magnitude of the speed. And so what's going on? Stock popped back to basically where it opened yesterday. So just for perspective, it was around 165 yesterday morning. And the question is, do we see peak negative attitude towards Oracle? If they finish the equity offering, it's one slight overhang that might be eliminated.

14:23Exactly. Let's resume the conversation. We'll continue going through the Oracle numbers. Again, that stock is higher by about 7 percent right now on the back of those earnings. Andrew, what's your take of where we are? Are we in this normalization phase that Rick had mentioned? And what does that normalization mean on the equity side? Is it what we've been seeing so far or has it yet to come? Rick nailed it. If you look historically, the 10-year Treasury yield tends to kind of track nominal GDP, which makes total sense. So if things are really good, why am I going to lock up my money with you when I can have a better opportunity?

14:53Nominal GDP is like 6, 6.5 percent. That would call for something like a 5 percent, you know, Treasury yield. So it is normalization. The other thing that's not so normal, though, is there's just intense competition for capital. And so you're seeing it from hyperscalers are raising money. And then just a quick one, Japan and the U.K. are the two biggest holders of U.S. treasuries, foreign holders. And both of them are seeing yields that are at 30-year highs, and that's going to create some competition. So it's just this is all interconnected. It makes a lot of sense if you think about it, and what's happening seems pretty orderly.

15:27So it's concerning. I think the market could fall a little bit further, but this isn't like some comet out of the blue, unless AI kills us, all the human beings. Yeah, yeah, that's, you know, the asterisk that we have to put into everything we say. Cameron, you and I have both been on this idea that, yes, by historical standards, rates are pretty normal. And it's true. It's pretty much in line with where you'd expect them to be. But when tenure gets to 4.9 from less than one in a few years, it's different than in the late 90s when we were at 5 percent down from 8. Well, yeah, I think that the key thing about yields, though, is that, yes, they've moved back up to 2000s level.

16:05But 2000s weren't necessarily normal. They were well below the yields we saw in the 90s, well below the yields we saw in the 80s. We think the actual more important thing is that yields aren't in a downtrend anymore. And the bull market and bonds over the last 40 years ended in 2022 when we broke into a new uptrend. And with yields continuing to move higher, that has big implications on where valuations for stocks should trade, potentially where we should see credit spreads. And so we think the real message is that yields are in a very clear and distinct uptrend. And if these were stocks, John Rocha's been saying, if these were stocks, you'd be a buyer because these are pretty bullish charts.

16:41Right. Some would make the case that this economy is not built, though, for yields that are moving higher. And you mentioned AI killing us. I mean, AI could kill the equity gains, the equity rally, because a lot of this build out is predicated on financing. And so how do you how do you see that if we are to acknowledge that, you know, we knew this comment was coming. I don't know if we knew how much CapEx spend would depend on going to market and raising money. That's a really good point. Thanks for continuing the comment metaphor. Yeah, I mean, I think you've started to see some of that or already seen some of that in the equity valuation structure.

17:15So that's a big part of what this derating has been. So if you look since last October, when the real rate move began in earnest, since that same time, October last year, the multiples down from like 23 to 20. And obviously there's a big component of that being driven by the mag seven. But I think this is like a normal process of kind of figure out like new, you know, where this is all going to settle. You'll see something like, you know, yields at five or just a little bit above and equities have kind of done a lot of the dirty work there. So it's a shift, and companies are going to have to figure out a way to refinance their cheaper debt.

17:50But, you know, that's what we're going through. All right. Andy, Cameron, thank you. Good to see you both. Well, Oracle earnings crossing just moments ago. The stock moving higher in the back of those positive results and higher than expected full-year 2027 guidance. Let's bring in Jeffrey Senior Software Analyst Brent Thill to take a closer look at the results. He's got a buy rating on the stock,$290 price target. Brent, great to have you with us. And you made the comment in your notes that you thought that there was just peak negativity going into the quarter. We're seeing the stock, you know, bounce to the upside.

18:21The guidance didn't look as strong as the, you know, as the quarter that they just reported. Yeah, I mean, I think they're being conservative. The quarter was great. If you look at OCI, which is Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, that was ahead of the bogey at 120 percent growth. The RPO, which is their backlog, was up 46 percent. year-over-year and apply 26 billion net new ads. They book 30 billion more of AI contracts in the quarter, and everyone hates the stock. We're literally, of the four hyperscalers, including CoreWeave, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, everyone has said business is booming, or better.

19:00The AI drain on, hey, it's going to be really expensive if there's no ROI. They threw that out the window. So what you're seeing is, I think, the same thing from Oracle, which is they're one of the top five infrastructure builders for this cloud era. And they basically raised their EPS guide and reiterated the fiscal guide for over$90 billion. So overall, I don't see any issue here. I think the stock's been pounded and everyone's been super negative. Again, we've said that Microsoft, Amazon, Google are our favorites. it's Oracle is an important company. And we just think stock tactically was was oversold.

19:43So we think, again, when you look at this company saying that they're going to get to twenty dollars of earnings power in three years out, you can put a 20 multiple on it. It's a four hundred dollar stock. And the sphere of open A.I. not doing well and the debt load and all these other concerns are really weighing hard on the stock. So we think, again, if Oracle keeps doing what they're doing, like they did in this quarter, they're still growing their software business double digit. They're growing their infrastructure business 120 percent. Their RPOs up 46 percent year over year. These are really good numbers.

20:16So, I mean, granted, obviously, if they execute the way that they've laid out the roadmap, clearly the numbers will follow. But I also wonder if there's an element of it in addition to the balance sheet being, you know, a bit less secure than the other hyperscalers you mentioned. I mean, They're coming from a different place. The core businesses of Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft were much more beloved and garnered a higher multiple than Oracle did before this whole build-out phase. Yeah, I mean, that's true. Look, I mean, Oracle was putting up a 45 % operating margin in a software business that was growing, but to your point, wasn't growing at the same rate as the others.

20:59And so, again, I think what we've said is that it is not, call it tier one numbers. They're in tier two, but there are only going to be literally five companies that are going to build this out. So is it the absolute preferred platform for investors to own? There's three other names we put ahead of this. But we like Oracle because we think they're doing a better job than expected. The stock has gotten crushed. And the multiple is not even that big when you look at what they're going to do. you have the balance sheet, OpenAI, all these things are concerns. But I think a lot of those concerns are baked into the stock.

21:34And that's why you're seeing, you know, the stock rally in the after hours. Brent, great to get your take. Appreciate it. Brent, Phil, Jeffries. In addition to Oracle, we just heard from Adobe that stock slightly higher. After hours will get instant reaction to that report. And what it is telling us about the fears over the software trade.

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23:04Oh, look. You just got added to a meeting about coordinating another meeting to prepare for the pre-meeting ahead of the follow-up meeting, which will, of course, require a recap meeting. and then another meeting. Hit your booking point. Book with Southwest and enter airplane mode. If you're a parent and want to help set up your child for success, then IXL is right for your family. As an effective and affordable online learning program, IXL covers math, language arts, science, and social studies using interactive practice problems for kids from pre-K to 12th grade. Listeners can get an exclusive 20 % off IXL membership when they sign up today at IXL.com slash 20.

23:56Visit IXL.com slash 20 to get the most effective learning program out there at the best price. Shares of Adobe are slightly lower after reporting third quarter results. They're slightly above expectations. Key metrics, including subscription revenue and annual recurring revenue, are also small beats. And for fourth quarter guidance for earnings and revenue, the estimates are within the company's forecast range. Joining us now is Gil Lurie, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson. Gil, I guess pretty much all the results and guidance are in the zone. They used to be a good thing for a company like Adobe.

24:33It was just steady. It was reliable. But obviously, the results themselves don't answer a lot of the big picture questions. So what do you think that challenge is? What does Adobe kind of have to persuade investors of? Well, that's the problem. The burden of proof is on Adobe. Adobe has been categorized as an AI loser, and they're not going to escape that by reporting in-line results. Let's not forget, they just went through a leadership change that I would not say went smoothly. They had one CEO step down three months ago, and then they just announced a new CEO as an internal hire. What that tells investors is we looked externally and we couldn't find anybody.

25:12That's not great. And the fact that they're just reporting in line today doesn't give anybody any reason to believe that Adobe won't be a victim of better AI going forward. So what does it need to do on this conference call, Gail? I mean, what lines of business do they need to highlight? What sort of growth? I mean, in order to convince people that they're not on the AI defensive, but they are on the AI offensive. They need a new plan for how they're going to accelerate growth and then they need to accelerate growth. And this actually has not that much to do with AI. All software companies are adapting to AI.

25:47Adobe is actually not that different. It's just that the market perceives them as a loser. So the only way they can escape that is have a plan for how to accelerate growth in their existing businesses, whether with AI or without it, and then execute on that plan. Because otherwise, they'll keep trading at 10 to 12 times, which is what the market says about companies that it expects to slow growth or maybe even start declining. And the new CEO, this is his chance today is his chance to communicate a new plan that will change Adobe's trajectory. Is there kind of a menu of items that you would pull off to say that comprises a plan?

26:26Are there obvious steps that Adobe could take to accelerate the business? Well, one of the things they can do is actually start doing some accretive M &A. They did a little bit of it. Let's not forget software has bounced back a lot, but there's still a lot of software stocks that are trading at very low multiples, private companies that won't be able to IPO. If Adobe can make accretive acquisitions, financially accretive acquisitions, that is a way to accelerate growth. That's one example. Another example is to figure out how to create the relationships with Frontier Labs in a similar way that Salesforce did.

27:06One deal with Anthropic changed Salesforce's stock trajectory very dramatically. If Adobe can find their version of that, then maybe they can change that perception. Because they're not actually losing that much share. Companies like Canva and Figma at the very low end are actually starting to sputter. Adobe's pushing back on them. Adobe just needs to show a little more receipts that their businesses will continue to grow. And Gil, you do cover Oracle as well. And I wanted to ask you if you thought the quarter was as good as a 7 % pop in the stock we're seeing after hours. It's even better than that because they execute it.

27:43The question about Oracle, would they execute? Can they build data centers? Can they open them? Can they finance them? Have they completed that in the market offering? Can they reassure us that they won't need to borrow any more money this year? Can they hit the guidance? Their guidance for this year is for 34 % growth. Last quarter, they grew 20%. This quarter, they grew 29. That's a step in the right direction. This is a really good execution quarter, and that's important because Oracle does not get credit for its AI compute backlog. It has the biggest backlog with Microsoft. It has more backlog than Amazon and Google, and yet companies like CoreWeave and Nebius, upstarts without any profitability, are getting full credit for their backlog.

28:28Oracle, at best, is getting a quarter for maybe a quarter of its backlog. So this should really put them back on track if they continue to execute. Gil, good to see you. Thank you. Gil Loria. Thank you. Copper prices lower today, but coming off an all-time high, which has lifted the sector. Ahead, we'll speak exclusively with the Freeport MacBrand CEO, with that stock up 41 % so far this year.

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29:11Listen to what it sounds like to be a million miles away.

29:20Trimphaya guselcomab, taken by injection, is a prescription medicine for adults with active psoriatic arthritis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine. Imagine being a million miles away. Explore the possibilities. Ask your doctor about Trimphia. Tap this ad to see new joint data and learn more about Trimphaya, including important safety information.

30:03Oh, look, you just got added to a meeting about coordinating another meeting to prepare for the pre-meeting ahead of the follow-up meeting, which will, of course, require a recap meeting. And then another meeting. Hit your booking point, book with Southwest, and enter airplane mode. If you're a parent and want to help set up your child for success, then IXL is right for your family. As an effective and affordable online learning program, IXL covers math, language arts, science, and social studies using interactive practice problems for kids from pre-K to 12th grade. Listeners can get an exclusive 20 % off IXL membership when they sign up today at IXL.com slash 20.

30:55Visit IXL.com slash 20 to get the most effective learning program out there at the best price.

31:14A news alert in the energy markets. Let's get to Pippa Stevens. Pippa. The price of diesel topping$6 per gallon for the first time ever, according to Patrick DeHaan from GasBuddy. That is based on consumers typing in what they're paying for gas around the country and is the first read here on that$6 level. We will get more AAA data tomorrow, which currently has the national average just two cents shy of$6. But this rise has just been really historic. Just a year ago, we were at 230. And so the national average is now more than three dollars above that as this relentless march higher. Thanks to the dual forces of both Russian volumes being offline as well as Middle Eastern exports being down is really hitting consumers here hard.

31:56But diesel, of course, called a stealth tax on consumers, given that it transports everything. Guys, Pippa, thank you, Pippa Stevens. Meantime, check out copper down more than five percent today after hitting a record high yesterday. Reuters reporting the White House is reconsidering planned copper tariffs ahead of the November midterm elections. Expectations for those tariffs had helped fuel much of copper's recent surge. The reversal also hitting the miners. Freeport-McMoran posting its worst day since June after entering today up 50 percent for the year. Joining us now for an exclusive interview is Freeport-McMoran CEO Kathleen Quirk, along with our very own Morgan, Brandon Morgan.

32:31All right, Melissa, thank you. And Kathleen, it's great to speak with you today. I think we need to start right there, because really what's moved copper today and with it, Freeport-McMoran, is a news report of no news, meaning that the Trump administration has reportedly not made any decision about copper tariffs, and this is something that the market has been anticipating. Where does Freeport-McMoran stand on this? How are you navigating it? What are you anticipating? It's great to be here. And, you know, the thing that we're looking at really is the fundamentals of the market, supply-demand fundamentals.

33:02And what's underpinning copper are the demand drivers that we've been seeing and the trends that we're seeing. And when you take the expectation that the world is becoming a lot more electrified, I mean, everywhere you turn, you're seeing things becoming more electrified. That's copper intensive. The copper intensity of use is increasing at the same time where supplies are more and more challenging to come to market. So at Freeport, you know, in terms of the tariffs, you know, we're watching it. But like you said, there was no news. Really, what we're looking at for the long term for our investments is the overall supply and demand fundamentals, which really look compelling for the copper markets.

33:48Yeah. And we have this conversation about supply and demand. I want to dig a little deeper in that in just a moment. But this idea of standing up a U.S.-based supply chain, copper being a key part of that moving forward. I mean, you are the largest producer of copper here in the U.S. What does that mean in terms of investment and the advantage you have for that? Well, we're really proud of our franchise in the U.S. We call ourselves America's copper champion because we supply, we produce at Freeport, 70 percent of the copper that's produced in the U.S., the copper refined copper, to the U.S. market.

34:21So we're a very important strategic producer in the U.S. And importantly, we also have a lot of growth embedded in our U.S. assets. Our U.S. assets are established. We've been mining at a large scale for a very long time. But now we see this world where we need more of what we produce. And so what we're doing is looking to innovation, technology, brownfield expansion in the U.S. And so we have this opportunity in the U.S. to increase our copper production by 60 percent over the next four years. And that's what we're aggressively going after. So we're in a great position to do it. Clearly, you're looking to the future, Kathleen.

35:03But at the same time, in terms of the issue of tariffs, have you been in communication with the White House about tariffs? And how would the imposition of tariffs, how would that shape what you do in your business? Would that, you know, further accelerate those expansions, et cetera? What does it make you think more about how, because, you know, from conception or discovery to actual production, it's like 17 years for a copper mine. Right. That's for a greenfield copper mine. The things that we're doing are brownfield in nature. You can do them much more quickly, something more like a three to four year horizon.

35:36But the administration has been very supportive of our industry. We're very pleased with the level of engagement they've had. And in looking at our industry and promoting copper as a critical metal, promoting copper mining, processing in the U.S., government policy in terms of how tariffs play into all that is really government policy. And what we're looking as investors and miners in copper is really the fundamentals, because sometimes a tariff you wouldn't use to make a long term investment decision on, because like you said, you know, it could be a very long term horizon and you don't know how long a tariff might may or may not be in place.

36:22So we're looking generally at the trends and the fundamentals and see the real opportunity to to take our existing business in the U.S., modernize it, invest in it and make it more valuable and help the U.S. copper market become more self-sufficient. Ultimately, obviously, supply and demand, those fundamentals are going to prevail. They're going to drive what happens. Is there any reason looking out a little while to be concerned about the durability of demand? Obviously, the electrification trend globally is very strong. But there's a lot of reports, I mean, as data centers look for alternatives and other ways around pure copper, is it going to be displaced on some level?

37:02Yeah, there's always talk about, and there has been for years, about substitution. And does substitution make sense? Really, when you think about copper, think about conductivity and its superior conductivity and properties that make it a superior product. Now, people will always look at value engineering and whether they can do substitution. But for the major electrification that's going on, you can't do it without copper. Copper is a very important. Some people are even saying copper is more important than oil today. But it's a very important commodity as we look out into the future. When I hear 60 percent production increase in the U.S.

37:43over the coming years, in part because of some of this leaching technology, brownfield technology that you're deploying. Is that going to be enough then to meet the shortfall we're hearing about when you do think about electrification and data center demand? And also, oh, by the way, the fact that the economy is still growing at a pretty strong rate. Yeah. No, I mean, that's not that's just in our U.S. portfolio. We've also got a growth opportunity, a big one in Chile that we're currently in permitting for. And then we have large scale production in Indonesia that we're continuing to reinvest in.

38:17So, no, it's not enough. If you look at some of the reports that have come out, you know, S &P Global came out earlier in the year with a report about it. It's showing, you know, multimillion ton deficits as we go out. So they're saying it's going to take, you know, 10 new mines a year to be able to do this. And and so as an industry, we need to develop new supplies. We need to do it economically. Inflation is a factor. You know, one of the things that we're doing at Freeport that's that we have to do is innovate. And so one of the things that we're doing to grow our production is to work on opportunities that would allow us to grow our production without a huge amount of capital intensity.

39:05And that's through technology. When you think about how technology has run through all of the businesses and you've seen what it's done with oil and gas and the shale gas revolution, we haven't had that sort of thing in mining. And so we're working on opportunities to take technology and use it to help us become more efficient and produce more copper units. Let's say that S &P report is right, though, and that global consumption will increase by 50 percent by 2040. Is it a far gone conclusion that we will be in deficit, in your view? Because 10 mines a year, that's a lot. Yeah, that's not going to.

39:37That's really, really hard to make happen. It's just not available. And that's why you're seeing prices where they are. they're at incentive levels to try to get people to make these investments. But they have very long lead time. They have a lot of risk associated with them. So our strategy at Freeport is on playing to our strengths, playing to the asset base we have, looking for opportunities for brownfield expansion, lower risk opportunities, and this innovation. And I think that's going to differentiate Freeport and create a lot of value. Kathleen, thank you. Thank you. Anthony Quirk from Freeport, McMoran.

40:14Morgan, thanks so much. Thank you. All right, time for a CNBC News update with Brandon Gomez. Brandon. Hey there, Mike. Lindsey Clancy's lawyer asked the judge who oversaw her murder trial in Massachusetts to declare her not guilty in the 2023 deaths of her three young children. The request came less than a week after the high-profile case ended in a deadlock and was declared a mistrial. Her legal team says prosecutors did not provide sufficient evidence to disprove their insanity defense. The federal government is reportedly poised to announce the end of the cyclosporiasis outbreak today. That's according to The Washington Post.

40:45Now, the parasite linked to lettuce sourced in central Mexico and sold by Taylor Farms, sickened more than 11 ,000 people, caused nearly 500 hospitalizations and two deaths. And California Governor Gavin Newsom signed digital safety bills into law today. They include a controversial measure measure that bans social media companies from offering addictive features such as infinite scroll and autoplay on their platforms to users under 16. The law is the first of its kind in the U.S. Melissa, send things back to you. Brandon, thanks. Brandon Gomez. Lenar hitting a 52-week low today with the homebuilders having a rough week.

41:20The XHB ETF down more than 5%. Up next, we'll break down the latest housing data, putting pressure on the sector.

41:34Welcome back to Closing Bell. Overtime live from the Nasdaq market site. The big story today, oil rising back over$100 a barrel for the first time since May, 8 percent higher, in fact, and bond yields jumping along with oil. The 10-year getting closer to 5 percent, hitting its highest level since 2023. And those moves led stocks lower, the Dow falling 316 points, the S &P 500 closing below 7 ,600, the Nasdaq 100 losing more than 1%. Well, the 30-year fixed mortgage topping 7 % for the first time in over a year. Diana Olick has more on this move higher. Diana. That's right, Melissa. The average rate on the 30-year fixed hit 7.07%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

42:16We haven't seen a 7-handle on that since May 21, 2025. The rate surged 10 basis points from yesterday, and we're now up 18 basis points just in this holiday-shortened week. Now, mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is higher today on another surge in oil prices. As you said, the home-building ETF ITB was already down this morning on the drop in existing home sales. The headline in that report wasn't so much the drop, which came in along expectations, but the fact that the supply of homes for sale hit the highest level in over a decade. As a result, names like Lenar, Pultean, D.R.

42:52Horton all down on the day. These stocks have been battered since mid-July when mortgage rates really took off again following that first surge in March at the start of the Iran war. Now, just for comparison, on the median priced home with 20 percent down, your monthly payment of principal and interest today would be about 250 bucks more than it was back on March 1st. Back to you guys. Diana, you highlighted a piece of data that caught my eye, too, within the existing home sales number. That is the inventory levels reaching highs. And I'm wondering how you think the interplay between mortgage rates at 7.07 percent and inventories being high right now are going to play out, because I would think that it would sort of mean that these houses might languish on the market or maybe they get pulled.

43:40Well, that's part of the inventory issue is that not only do you have new homes, more homes coming on the market for the fall market, which is kind of the second most important market next to spring, but you also have homes that have been sitting for a long time. And that's adding to the inventory. But what's interesting in that is you would expect that home prices would really start to come down sharply. But that's not the case. Usually when you have high supply and low demand, prices come down. We're still seeing prices up year over year and actually price gains accelerating. Part of that is because so much of that supply is on the very high end of the market that's not really mortgage dependent.

44:14And on the lower end of the market where you are mortgage dependent, there's less supply. There's still demand, but people can't afford it. So that's playing into this kind of weird scenario in home prices versus supply. But again, that supply will continue to rise if mortgage rates continue to be this high. Yeah, you have mismatches all up and down the chain, it feels like, Diana. Thank you very much. Well, it's never too early to start thinking about the holidays, at least for Wall Street. We'll look at the new estimates for retail sales this season and what could drive it. Closing bill overtime.

44:45Back after this.

44:52Over the past month, consumer discretionary is the second worst sector in the S &P 500, down 6%. Some of the names hit hardest include the cruise lines and other travel names, which are feeling the pinch of high fuel prices, diesel prices, trickling their way through the economy. $9.99 a gallon at a few stations in California. At consumer conferences this week, Clorox, Kimberly-Clark and Constellation Brands all talked about higher shipping costs. So what is this going to mean for the consumer and the crucial holiday season? In a new report, Deloitte saying it expects holiday retail sales to grow by as much as 4.8 percent to about$1.7 trillion at this point, about matching last year's rate of gain.

45:33Right. And of course, this is not inflation adjusted. It's a things cost more and you're going to spend more. But it's sort of this notion that it will continue to chug along, even though the consumers being, you know, really hamstringed by higher costs all around. And then on the retail side, transportation costs are really catching up, as you pointed out, for a lot. That's right. And a lot of these companies have said they're going to recycle tariff refunds into value pricing and hit margins. And, you know, the stock market is just really demolishing some otherwise resilient consumer stocks like TJX and McDonald's that we've talked about.

46:07I mean, TJX since the beginning of August. I mean, it's just like a rollover. Also Costco, like some of these ones that have been sort of the executors and not necessarily like a stellar stock returns for this year. But, you know, sort of steady. And they just join the downward slope there. Yeah, they've held their valuation for so long and then it gave way. Up next, another check on the after hours earnings movers, Oracle and Adobe. be those conference calls starting at the top of the hour. Closing Bell Overtime, live from the Nasdaq markets. I'll be right back.

46:39Let's get another check on the big after-hours earnings reports, Oracle as well as Dolby. Seema Modi's got the latest. Seema. Melissa, we were watching Oracle shares surge, delivering that big Q1 beat fueled by its cloud infrastructure business, which jumped 121 % from a year ago. So that's sort of quieting demand concerns for now. Now, conference call begins in a few minutes and top of mind will be that yearly outlook and how that factors in one, the cost tied to compute regulatory risks as political backlash against data centers continues to rise. Its new Mexico campus dealing with some pushback from local authorities stock up about six percent.

47:14We are also watching Adobe stock is now down two percent after the company delivered a beat on sales and earnings for the quarter and annual recurring revenue. That's the key metric for software companies. The company did cite more than one billion monthly active users. The question now is how does the new CEO Anil Chakravarti craft his AI vision as both OpenAI and Anthropic get better at image generation, which has fuel displacement concerns and is weighed on the stock this year, guys? All right, Sina, thank you. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. It is light on the earnings front with just Kroger reporting in the morning.

47:49And we are, of course, getting the CPI. The headline number expected to increase 0.4 percent. That's month over month, two tenths on the core rate. That read on inflation comes ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. So Wednesday, you've got to believe it's going to be a matter of certainty after we get that report, what the Fed is likely to do in terms of market terms. And right now, 70 plus percent odds of a Fed rate hike. The two year yield at four and a half percent. Man, it would seem almost if the CPI ratifies the idea that we're getting a rate hack, maybe the market's going to say, yeah, no kidding.

48:22Yeah, it's all in positioning, right? So, you know, we've already moved this far. I mean, super hot, you don't want to see. But, you know, maybe it'll at least give us some clarity one way or the other into next week. That's going to do it for overtime. Fast Money starts right after this.

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