Market Open: Stocks Mixed Before Fed’s Expected Rate Hike at 2 PM ET • 9/16/26

0:01See NBC Business News Update market open. I'm Jessica Ettinger. Wall Street mixed out of the gate ahead of a pivotal interest rate decision by the Fed coming today. It's widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. Americans would pay more on credit card balances and other adjustable rate loans they may have. The Dow down 93 points this morning. IBM shares leading it lower. They're down almost 3 percent. American Express shares down two and a half percent. The S &P 500 index in the green by 15 points. The Nasdaq up 122 points. Many of the chip makers are in the green this morning.

0:39Micron is in the red. A Fed rate increase of a quarter percentage point is possible today. The chances of a rate hike are now priced in over 90 percent after that August CPI print. But the real question is, are the markets getting ahead of the Fed again? Are we being too hawkish about this, not this rate hike, but perhaps the next one? And my response to that is, yes, of course we are. We have been trained to do this since the early 2000s in the Greenspan era, when an era of near zero interest rates necessitated some kind of stimulus after the dot-com crash. So since the advent of forward guidance, the Fed has rarely been one and done.

1:16That's the Stonex Group's Sharia Samarth on CNBC. And here's a take from former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson on CNBC. They're going to raise rates. I think the question that's going to be on everyone's mind is exactly what they say about the future. All ears not just on the result, which is a foregone conclusion, but what's he likely to say about, you know, are there further rate hikes in the future? The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was hovering above 5 percent, its highest since the 2007 great financial crisis. Other key loan rates have been rising along with bonds over the past few weeks, including mortgages.

1:52They've been following Treasury yields higher, and the average rate today on a 30-year fixed home loan is the highest since January of 2025, when President Trump took office, sitting at 7.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Full coverage of the Fed interest rate decision today, 2 p.m. Eastern on CNBC at CNBC.com and on the CNBC app right on your phone. Retail sales ticked higher in August, up 1.3 percent from July. It was the biggest increase since March, better than expected. But the numbers aren't adjusted for inflation, which is running at 3.4 percent. Here's CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman.

2:35Could be a piece of inflation in that, but I don't think that's going to explain why it was so much higher than expected. A small piece of it, but when I look down the line there, almost every single category was higher. It suggests a strong consumer. Gas prices up 47 percent since the U.S. launched missiles into Iran at the end of February. Diesel's up even more, 68 percent in the same period. U.S. crude oil back below$104 a barrel today. But U.S. drivers did get fresh paint at the pump overnight. The national average for a gallon of regular gas hitting$4.37, according to AAA, rising another four cents overnight.

3:16Diesel up another four cents, too, at$6.31. That is a new record high. Canada invited to become an associate member of the European Union amid a trade war with the U.S. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney looking on as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the formal invitation. Dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships. So I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union. I'm Jessica Ettinger, CNBC. Hey, Fidelity. Can I get a second opinion on stocks in the Fidelity app?

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