In short
Fast Money episode covers: Cerebras’ blockbuster Nasdaq IPO and what it signals for the AI chip race; President Trump’s China trip and reported dealmaking (notably a claimed 200 Boeing plane purchase); Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug trial setback and stock reaction; plus market momentum in semis, Ford’s energy-storage partnership trade, China internet ETF technicals, and crypto’s jump on the Senate “Clarity Act” progress.
Guests/panelists
Melissa Lee (host). Tim Seymour (equity trading strategy at Citigroup), Carter Braxtonworth, Guy Adami, Stuart Kaiser. Christina Partsinevelis (chip/AI IPO analysis). Gil Luria (head of technology research, DA Davidson). Angelica Peebles (Biogen trial details). Eamon Javers (Beijing trip/deals). Emily Wilkins (Clarity Act crypto bill). Brandon Gomez (LVMH/Marc Jacobs deal).
Key claims/examples
Cerebras shares +68% (priced above range; valuation vs $510M revenue seen as “frothy”); bull case depends on OpenAI/AWS/UAE demand and TSMC capacity; bear case warns of execution and valuation (target ~115). Biogen: phase 2 missed dose-response but plans phase 3, encouraged by tau reduction and lower-dose signal. Ford: CATL partnership seen as catalyst; traders debate “energy storage” re-rating. China: K-Web ETF at lows with potential technical reversal. Crypto: Clarity Act advanced out of Senate committee; more regulation viewed as positive.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Tech Performance
1:41 to 4:00
Discussion on market performance, tech sector leadership, and notable stocks.
“On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxtonworth, Guy Adami, and Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup.”
Cerebras IPO Details and Valuation Concerns
4:00 to 5:13
Insight into the IPO of Cerebras and its implications for the tech industry.
“We won't get the details until the second half of this year.”
Analyzing Cerebras' Market Position
5:13 to 6:45
Discussion about Cerebras' potential in the market and its unique technology.
“Well, Brad Gerstner, who is as enthusiastic a person around this space as there is, I mean, he said anything over$250 today is a little exuberant in his words, not mine.”
The Dynamics of Memory and Chip Technology
6:45 to 7:59
Exploration of memory bottlenecks and implications for chip makers.
“It doesn't surprise me we had this reaction.”
Skepticism Surrounding Cerebras' Future
7:59 to 12:09
Interview with Gil Luria discussing the challenges Cerebras may face.
“It was repriced twice, 20 times oversubscribed.”
Competitive Landscape in AI Chip Market
12:09 to 14:00
Comparing Cerebras to competitors and discussing future market dynamics.
“which is about$100 million installation.”
Cerebras Technology and Market Dynamics
14:00 to 17:00
Discussion on Cerebras's technology and its competitive landscape with Nvidia.
“And so therefore, the cost per token will come down as well.”
Market Sentiment and IPO History
17:00 to 18:00
Exploring the factors influencing market sentiment around Cerebras's IPO.
“There's other ways to play the bottlenecks.”
Risks of Being a Bag Holder
18:00 to 20:00
Discussion on potential pitfalls for investors and the risk of being a 'bag holder'.
“If you don't know the answer, you're going to say Shakespeare and you'll be right.”
Chip Equipment Makers and Market Trends
20:00 to 21:04
Analysis of chip equipment makers and how they fit into the AI boom.
“Look, the move is ridiculous, but all these are, and I still think you can own AMAT at these levels.”
Show all 22 chapters
Chip Equipment Makers and Market Trends
21:08 to 21:30
Analysis of chip equipment makers and how they fit into the AI boom.
Biogen's Alzheimer Drug Update
22:06 to 24:50
Coverage of Biogen's Alzheimer's drug trial results and market reactions.
“Well, this experimental drug failed that phase 2 trial because it didn't show a dose response, but Biogen's advancing it anyway because they say that they're encouraged by other signals of efficacy.”
Healthcare Sector and Biotech Insights
24:50 to 28:07
Insights into the biotech sector and market trends affecting healthcare stocks.
“I think it was April 29th, their first quarter.”
Healthcare Sector and Biotech Insights
28:50 to 29:14
Insights into the biotech sector and market trends affecting healthcare stocks.
“As an effective and affordable online learning program, iXL covers math, language arts, science, and social studies using interactive practice problems for kids from pre-K to 12th grade.”
The Ford Debate: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends
29:21 to 31:59
Explore the recent surge in Ford's stock and the implications of its energy storage business.
“Four chairs revving up for a second straight day.”
Trump's China Visit: Boeing Deal and Taiwan Concerns
32:00 to 36:36
Analyze President Trump's negotiations in China and their impact on U.S.-China relations regarding Taiwan.
“Coming up, the latest wheeling and dealing from Trump's China visit.”
Taiwan Semiconductor and Global Geopolitics
36:37 to 38:38
Discuss the strategic importance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry in global trade and politics.
“And if Taiwan actually fell into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, I don't think TSMC could make those chips for the U.S.”
China Internet ETF: Market Trends and Predictions
38:39 to 42:00
Evaluate the performance of the K-Web ETF and the potential for a market reversal.
“Yeah, there's no good way to answer the question.”
Crypto Regulation and Market Confidence
42:00 to 43:36
Explore the current state of crypto regulation and its impact on market confidence.
“Really shows exactly how much power crypto has on the Hill right now.”
Bitcoin vs. Coinbase Investment Discussion
43:36 to 43:50
Debate whether it's better to invest in Bitcoin or Coinbase based on market trends.
“It's just like, is there a big thesis based on price action to be long?”
Tech Software Market Insights
43:50 to 45:26
Analysis of the iShares tech software ETF performance and market outlook.
“Welcome back to Fast Money, the iShares tech software ETF, IGV, notching our move of the day today.”
Final Trades and Predictions
45:26 to 45:57
Hosts share their final trade recommendations and insights.
“I know we've highlighted all these smaller stocks, but that is Palantir, Microsoft, and Oracle.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Is your business achieving its current strategic goals? Are operations as tight as they should be? Are finances in a realistic place for expansion? These are questions investors ask. That's why EY Parthenon brings an investor mindset to help executives reinvent business models for long-term growth, reset strategic goals, optimize operations, and get finances in order. Let us help you reimagine your enterprise. EY Parthenon, solutions that work in practice, not just on paper.
0:55or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
1:00Tim Seymour:Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Cerebris Soars, the AI chipmaker jumping nearly 70 % in its market debut. All the details on the high-demand IPO and what it says about the state of the AI race. In deal-making in Beijing, President Trump saying China has agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes, round up all the agreements getting inked, and what it could mean for trade between the two economic giants. Plus, Biogen drops on its latest trial results. Ford revs up for a second straight day, and Coinbase mints some gains as Bitcoin nears 82K.
1:33Tim Seymour:Did we get some real clarity for the crypto space, and will it be off to the races from here? I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxtonworth, Guy Adami, and Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup. Well, on a day where the Dow reclaimed 50K and the S &P closed above 7 ,500 for the first time ever, it was tech in the driver's seat, by far the best-performing sector in the S &P 500, up almost 2%, trading at all-time highs. The Nasdaq leading major averages with a gain of nearly 1 % in semis, extending their run.
2:05Tim Seymour:The SMH now set to close out a seventh straight winning week. NVIDIA playing a big part in boosting that group up over 4 % today, now on a seven-day winning streak. It closed the day with a market cap over$5.7 trillion. Cisco also powering today's move, the biggest gainer in the S &P after last night's earnings, showed skyrocketing AI demand. That stock had its best day going back 15 years, but much of today's euphoria tied to the biggest U.S. tech IPO in years. Cerebra shares of the AI chipmaker closing up 68%, at$311 a share, the stock pricing at already above range of$185 and opened at$350.
2:44Tim Seymour:For more on the day B, what it means for the chip trade, let's bring in Christina Partsinevelis. What an exciting day today here. I know. I know. There's a lot. First, it was NVIDIA, and now just Cerebus. You talked about pricing. It was$185, raised twice. It went up to a high of about$385 today. And if you were to take all outstanding shares in the market, that puts a valuation of roughly$117 billion. Then divide that by just last year's revenue of only$510 million. And I know you like ratios, you're nodding 229 times. And hats off to Ben at Highline Capital. He provided that stat. And so what that tells you is a lot of concern about just whether this is a little bit frothy.
3:22This is a company that makes the largest commercial chip available. It's really big. I even held it on screen earlier. And it's putting everything on that actual chip. That's how it differs from, let's say, the likes of NVIDIA, where there's a lot of smaller chips pieced together, which makes it more complicated because you have to use advanced packaging and that's how you could lose some data. And so with that, they're saying that they're able to save money on the memory front because it's on the actual chip. You're not losing that speed. And so it's an opportunity for the company to grow dramatically.
3:51It's just a matter of are they relying solely on just a few customers, which I know you brought up. OpenAI, there's the UAE, maybe AWS. We still don't know the terms of that deal. We won't get the details until the second half of this year.
4:03Tim Seymour:What is your sense of if they are able to meet the demand, should the demand be, should those other customers come through, which is what the benchmark partner had said? Should they come through? Should they come through, yeah. So I asked one of the executives right after the big hurrah about that customer concentration. And she's like, well, can you even say that? That's like an old way to refer to companies now with concentration when the hyperscalers really account for so much of that CapEx spending anyway. So everybody has a relative concentration. The person threw it into three buckets. They have the labs, OpenAI.
4:35They're catering to that. They have the nations, UAE, catering to that. And then the third one, which would be the cloud, which is AWS, which we still don't know. The problem is the revenue. Morgan Stanley is saying about$15 billion in the next three years, going from$510 million to$15. That's a pretty dramatic increase. And a lot of that, though, is OpenAI. The backlog is$24.5 billion. OpenAI signed$20 billion. So there's still that risk, no doubt. And they would have to keep up that growth trajectory and get TSMC capacity. You asked me that just a few days ago. So it's an issue for so many chip makers.
5:11Tim Seymour:Absolutely. Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelis. Breaking it down. Breaking it down, as she always does. As she does. What did you make of the trade today? Well, Brad Gerstner, who is as enthusiastic a person around this space as there is, I mean, he said anything over$250 today is a little exuberant in his words, not mine. So here we are. And again, I'm not going to get into how things are priced and if it's priced well or not. But for this to go up 100 % during the day, I mean, that's pretty extraordinary based on where it was priced and based on where it traded up to today. Price to sales is concerning.
5:40But if you think this is going to be instead of a billion-dollar revenue company, a$20 billion revenue over the next three or four years, you're going to play the waiting game and say, you know, I'm not going to wait around for this to happen. I'm going to get in front of it. I think it's overextended here in terms of those valuations. I think it's just a matter of time before we go back to the price that was priced at today.
5:57Karen Finerman:Well, if you think about just the backdrop of where we are, first of all, this is not only the biggest IPO of the year, it's the biggest semiconductor IPO ever. And therefore, there's a lot around this at a time when there's a lot going on. On a day we've got more clarity about the prospectus of SpaceX, which is going to be maybe$1.2 trillion. So it doesn't surprise me that we had this runaway. We are in an environment where retail has barely just gotten their chops onto this thing. And this is also a slightly different, like when you're into kind of this large size semiconductor chip story and everything around it, which has been everything from engineering dynamics to power dynamics to at the same time speed and places where this really could be the brave new frontier.
6:45Karen Finerman:It doesn't surprise me we had this reaction. In fact, I kind of looked up at my screens and said, huh, like, you know, I don't know where it's going to be. I don't know that the market has any idea what price to sales multiple you should put a stock like this at.
6:57Tim Seymour:I feel like you can apply that sentence to a lot of parts of the AI trade at this point. If you're a believer that memory is in shortage, you've got to be a believer in cerebris. I mean, part of their existence is just working around that loss of memory, memory scarcity here. So here we have the perfect sort of entry into this chip frenzy that we're seeing. I agree. Perfect storm. I mean, memory, in our view, is probably the tightest bottleneck within the AI trade. You haven't had an IPO really in a couple months because of the Iran disruptions. To your point, though, this is the biggest IPO of the year so far.
7:29I mean, we've got two or three coming that are going to kind of dwarf this in size. And that's probably why they wanted to get it done now, to kind of get ahead of that SpaceX demand as well. But to your point, it hits all the boxes. We're a big fan of the AI bottleneck trade, whether that's memory, whether that's cloud, whether that's power generation. And this kind of slides right in there. And it ticks a lot of retail boxes, too, which helps.
7:49Tim Seymour:I know you can't look at the Cerebrus chart. No, no chart to look at. Right. And you can't call it extended because there's nothing to be extended above or below. It is what it is. It's just a point in time. But the thing that's so telling is the environment we're in. It was repriced twice, 20 times oversubscribed. Originally, it was like 115 to 125. They moved up to 150, 160, came out at 185. And this is the tape we're in. There is no valuation. It is all on the come. So from here, it's just there are people who exit day one, like the people who went and sold the public. There are people who are in on the IPO who will be happy to book it and go, and there are people who are buying it fresh and new in the open market.
8:25We call them flippers. We call them flippers. Flippers, yeah.
8:27Karen Finerman:Flippers, yeah. Not the Dolphin, but, you know. There was a sweet show. Remember that? That was cute. I like flipper. I can sing the song. Was that the one with Gidget? No, no, no, no, no. Okay. That might have been last week.
8:37Tim Seymour:I don't know. Sorry. This is my fault. I'm not up on the 60s TV. Nor should you be. So Tim's earlier point, I mean, if people listen to somebody like me, and it's me specifically talking about NVIDIA price to sales for years, they would have missed out on what has been an epic run. And I think for me to say price to sales is extended here, it is extended. But people say, you know what, you made that mistake a number of times in different companies. It's going to grow into it and we're not going to wait around for that to happen. All right. But in this environment, would you rather? Okay, here we go.
9:08Tim Seymour:Memory or cerebrus? Let's just say MU. Memory.
9:12Karen Finerman:Memory. I feel like we've got enough data points and we know kind of how this works. And I also look at the market as a discounting mechanism at six to nine months. And we haven't started to do that yet. I don't like I believe Samsung and Hinex when they tell me there's nothing coming online in terms of new supply until the end of next year. I what we don't know is truly what's going to happen in terms of the efficiency of these chips. I mean, there is an element of less memory, maybe more. I mean, today is, again, size matters, apparently. And today is a day when in chip land, size might equal less requirements on memory.
9:49Karen Finerman:So, but you just asked me, I won't belabor the point, memory.
9:53Tim Seymour:All right. Same to you, but also realizing that when NVIDIA launches a Vera Rubin chip, that could be a real competitor to what Cerebris has out on the market at this point. Yeah, we love the memory trade. A power generation is, we think, the best sharp ratio way, you know, to kind of go after the AI trades. If I had to pick a bottleneck, I'd personally go with that. But, you know, our research team, Heath, Terry, et cetera, they view memory as the tightest bottleneck. So if you're looking for a bottleneck trade, go there and you can look at the price of Korea and you'll see that pretty quick.
10:21So let's say it was a little bit different. Let's say it had come out at the midpoint at$120 ,000. Okay. Where it was originally priced. And we were sitting here two months from now or two weeks. It's now up 50 % to$180 ,000. It's been trading well. Would you rather, I think, would you rather have this for the next six months or cash? I think the answer is cash. Cash. Yeah. Bold. That is bold. You know, the power generation is, Carter's always bold. The power generation, to Stuart's point, I mean, Caterpillar is in that world. And, you know, you can say it's trading like a biotech stock. It is.
10:50But, you know, if you look at what they do on the power gen side, it actually sort of makes sense. I know if Dan were here, it'd be rolling his eyes at me, and maybe correctly so. But I got to tell you something. At 32 times next year's number, given the space that they're playing in, it's not ridiculous to think these stocks can't still go higher. All right.
11:06Tim Seymour:For more on the Cerebrus IPO, let's bring Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson. Gil, great to have you with us. You don't officially cover it yet, correct? Correct. Okay. I read the note that you put out, though. It sounds like you're a skeptic, to say the least. You said 115 is where it should be trading? Yeah, I mean, I hate to rain on parades, right? It's a great day for the market. It's a great day for early investors, for folks that got allocation today. And congratulations to all those hardworking folks that have been working on this for a while. And I don't want to temper that too much.
11:43Having said that, this is about speed, right? So the bull case here is that Cerebris makes the equivalent of somewhere between a Ferrari and a Bugatti. So for some uses, you're going to want to pay a very big premium for speed, which is what it's going to take. because to run a big model on Cerebris, you actually have to string 45 of these together, which is about$100 million installation. So it's going to be very expensive per token. And that's the bull case is there's a market for Bugattis and Ferraris and Cerebris will get to capture that. And it's a unique property because their engineering is very unique and they've worked through a lot of problems.
12:28The bear case is that this is more like the Concorde. is that, yes, if you can fly from New York to London for three hours, there's some market for that. But as it turned out, that market isn't big enough because it's such a narrow market for speed and certain connectivity for certain models at certain sizes with certain sparsity. The market may not end up being big enough. So we don't know where this is going to end up. We're really early. That$500 million from last year is just their investors paying them for revenue. There's not a lot of real revenue. So we're back to, will OpenAI live up to its commitments, which is a story and a movie we've been to with some other companies.
13:11And here, OpenAI has a few outs. So a lot of execution has to happen between now and the next couple of years for Cerebris to fill their obligation to OpenAI and get its backlog. So to tie it back to valuation, if I was to give them full credit for their backlog at one-times backlog, which is what neoclouds typically are trading at, they'd be about$115.
13:35Tim Seymour:So it sounds like there are a couple of layers of execution issue by Cerebris itself, but also by one of its major customers, OpenAI, in order for them to pay Cerebris for those very expensive chips. Gil, the figure that you cited, the$100 million for the installment to run a very big, giant model very quickly, shouldn't we assume that the technology will get better and that the cost will come down? And so therefore, the cost per token will come down as well. This is early technology, as you mentioned, and cost should theoretically come down. Yes, but Jensen Wang isn't asleep at the wheel here, right?
14:16When he saw this coming, when he saw the memory bottleneck coming, he quickly came and absorbed Grok incorporated into Vera Rubin. And so now he can deliver very similar speeds, let's say Porsche speeds at a lower cost per token in a much more flexible way that can do training and various types of inference. And you can scale up and scale down the speed as you want it. So the cost per token will go down, but so will Nvidia. So it's not that Cerebris will continue to own the top end of the market. Again, maybe they are the Bugatti, but Jensen's already working on a very fast 9-11.
15:00Karen Finerman:Hey, Gilles, Tim. So people that drive Bugattis and Lambos and whatnot are people... What's that? Lambos. I can't believe you said Lambos.
15:07Tim Seymour:Like a crypto bro. I'll pack it to the question, Gilles.
15:10Karen Finerman:He's waiting patiently. Gilles, so ultimately, this deal feels also just a little bit like Andrew Feldman. Talk about a Silicon Valley Entrepreneur that has been in the middle of a lot of incredible deals, wild success. It feels like this was a deal, or at least this is the evolution of a company that, again, the reliance on open AI doesn't necessarily mean that technology is not there. This feels like a deal of a lot of people in the know and that the people that are buying now might not be, you know, it's a sexy deal. We get it. We get why they've been put on the map. Does this kind of support your claims here?
15:50Karen Finerman:I'm just looking at all the ingredients here, including the people involved. And again, I want to compliment Andrew. I'm not picking on him. The guy's been wildly successful, but it feels like kind of the best on this is yesterday. Yeah. I mean, let's not forget this IPO almost happened a year ago. And at the time the market decided, you know, this technology is very cool, but it's probably not additive enough. And what's changed since then, as you were talking about earlier, is the memory wall. The models have gotten so much bigger, better, need more KV cache, need more bigger context windows.
16:28So we have such insatiable demand for memory that they had the right product at the right time because you can stack a lot of memories on that big dinner plate. And so that really revived the IPO and made it possible. But as you discussed very well a couple of minutes ago, I could buy Micron for eight times their earnings run rate. Why would I pay 200 times revenue for a company that may not even be able to scale up that much faster than Micron? As you pointed out, the bottlenecks are there. There's other ways to play the bottlenecks. This was just the right product at the right time as people are hungry for some new semis technology to diversify from the other type of semis they already own.
17:13Tim Seymour:All right. Gil, great to speak with you. Thank you. Gil, Loria. The scenario that Tim describes sounds like people who would go in today might be holding the bag. A little bit.
17:55to happen. And I would think that if you bought this stock at somewhere between $350 and$380 today, it's going to be problematic over the next couple weeks.
18:02Karen Finerman:What's the history of the bag holder? Well, remember bag in Happy Days. I don't think that's bag holder. It's probably a Shakespeare thing. If you don't know the answer, you're going to say Shakespeare and you'll be right. You look up bag holder and you don't like what you find.
Read the full transcript
18:18Tim Seymour:No, definitely not. No one wants to be the bag holder.
18:20Karen Finerman:If you know the answer, tell the audience. No, it's just, you know.
18:24Tim Seymour:It's neither here nor there. It's a time and a place in history where the bag holder had a job to do. We refer to these sleepy trust departments at banks who are the bag holders. You know, Wall Street sell-side security firms are fast and slick, and then the bag holders over here, we unloaded onto them. Let's get to applied materials, shall we? The shares are higher in the after hours, though off their best levels, after the company reported record top and bottom line results, both well ahead of Wall Street estimates. Guns for the current quarter also topping expectations. The CEO saying in a release, the company is positioned for sustained multi-year revenue and profit growth given the AI boom.
18:59Tim Seymour:Seems to make sense. I mean, if you're going to make chips, you need the equipment. Stu, where do you stand on chip equipment makers? Yeah, look, again, falls into that bottom of that category. I think the one kind of riskier a little bit is you have the hyperscalers and the AI complex bidding up the cost of all of these chips. And a lot of these chips go into normal things, too. I mean, I think these, you know, the faucets in the bathroom where you wave your hand under them have a chip in them somewhere, right? So, look, I think the demand is there. The supply is a couple years in the future.
19:30We could debate valuation, obviously. But until then, I think these bottlenecks continue to work and it's a part of the market. We discussed those chips. Those chips aren't very good. Is it the camera? Is it the chip? You do this, you do that, and then the water.
19:43Tim Seymour:Sensor. It doesn't work very well. Anyway. Is that why when I stand there looking for the spigot, nothing's happening? So do you just blow off washing your hands in the back? Are we completely off the trash? Anybody have comments on AMAT? I'm going to move on. Okay, please, please. At 31 times, it's not ridiculous. Now, it's a parabolic move, but it's not crazy expensive in this environment. So there's a great quarter. The guide was fine. Look, the move is ridiculous, but all these are, and I still think you can own AMAT at these levels. coming up biogen not taking no for an answer why the biotech company is pushing an experimental drug to the next stage despite disappointing trial results and how could impact the stock plus shares afford putting the pedal to the metal of 20 over the last two days why investors are piling into the automaker where our traders see the stock heading next don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two a history of the united states in 100 objects is a brand new podcast from 99 % Invisible and BBC Studios.
20:41Each week, we're looking at a different object from across American history with a unique story to tell about who we've been, what we've built, and what we've allowed ourselves to forget. Some of these objects are well-known, many are not, but all of them carry the story of how we got to this moment. Find a history of the United States in 100 Objects on the 99 % Invisible feed, wherever you get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information-packed daily market preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading.
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22:05Tim Seymour:welcome back to fast money biogen shares a dipping of more than six percent today after a trial for its experimental alzheimer's drug missed its main goal of testing for dosage effectiveness the company though still plans to advance the drug to phase three testing cnbc's angelica peebles has the details what a roller coaster ride for the stock i mean it was up as much as 10 i think and then now down six percent that's exactly right mel this morning actually we hit it on Squawk Box, and right away the stock was up 9%, and then throughout the day, like you said, it fell 6%. So what's going on here?
22:38Well, this experimental drug failed that phase 2 trial because it didn't show a dose response, but Biogen's advancing it anyway because they say that they're encouraged by other signals of efficacy. So what's going on here? Biogen says that the drug did what it was supposed to do. It decreased levels of tau, that's a protein associated with Alzheimer's, and that the lowest dose actually looked particularly promising for slowing cognitive decline. That's, of course, what we want to see here. So Biogen thinks that it has the right drug and that it almost has the right dose to move into phase three.
23:07Now, the top line results were announced in a press release, and there weren't any actual hard numbers, only descriptors like robust and compelling, making it hard for investors to decide for themselves how meaningful these results are and what they should expect to see. So analysts like RBC's Brian Abraham saying that they need to see the full results at a medical meeting in July, and they want more details on the go-forward plan to help frame the probability of success and the confidence in that phase three program. Biogen does plan to talk to the Alzheimer's community and the FDA about how to design those trials, and there's no timeline on when they might actually start that phase three program.
23:43So again, some interesting data, but also some questions there.
23:46Tim Seymour:So in terms of knowing now that the lower dose is pretty effective and that they feel pretty good about moving on to phase three. Did they know about the lower dose efficacy prior to phase two? So phase two is valuable in that now they know that a higher dosage is not necessary? You know, it's interesting. I was actually just reading a note from Evercore, and they were saying that, you know, Biogen today is saying, we think that it actually makes sense that this lower dose is more effective. However, Evercore pointing out, okay, well, if you thought that, then why did you design your trial to look at this dose response?
24:21So I think it's a really interesting question and one that we will have to hear more from Biogen and then those results to see exactly what's happening with those dose responses.
24:30Tim Seymour:Yep. Angelica, thanks. Angelica Peebles. Obviously, a lot of hope surrounding all Alzheimer's experimental treatments, and a lot of times investors have been burned by investing alongside those hopes. 100%. Holy grail. Nobody's figured it out yet. And if Biogen was just a one-trick pony, I'd say, you know what, I get the sell-off, but it's not. Go back to the quarter they reported. I think it was April 29th, their first quarter. It was a very strong quarter. And if you look at their forward, you're going to earn almost$17 a share. So back to the envelope math here, you're talking about a stock that's trading 11 times next year's number.
25:02They have four or five already viable drugs out there. So I think the sell-off is overdone. Great pattern. I mean, it's been in the throes of a bearish to bullish reversal for almost two years and looks headed higher to me. Okay.
25:14Tim Seymour:So is it really the bee in your timbo? I mean, now that Carter says the chart looks good, is it for sure? I'm jumping in.
25:19Karen Finerman:No, I'm jumping into this now. I'm no fair weather. This is the bee in Timbo. Look at that. It is confirmed. It's confirmed in the graphic. And it's because of what Guy said. I mean, this is a seven and a half percent free cash flow yield trades 14 times. This is not a one trick pony. Having said that, if we were in the middle of the Alzheimer's brouhaha around Biogen, we could have been doing this three or four times three or four years ago. I mean, this company, there's been a lot of criticism around both misleading advertising, somewhat clinical data reanalysis that maybe is repositioned the way they want it to.
25:57Karen Finerman:Pricing has been incredibly controversial and unaffordable. So this has been, you know, I mean, but as Guy said, this is one of the great important discoveries out there that is yet to happen and a lot of people chasing. And they're certainly right there.
26:12Tim Seymour:Yeah, just quickly in terms of flows into health care has been challenging, but biotech specifically, how's that been? You know, biotech's been pretty good, especially the smaller cap stuff. If you look at within the Russell 2000, it's your unprofitable, quote unquote, lower quality stocks that have done well. Unfortunately, biotech happens to fall in those two. Unfortunately or unfortunately, depending how you want to look at it, tends to fall in there. So I would expect those stocks to kind of continue to work. All right, we've got a news alert in the luxury retail space. Brandon Gomez has got the details.
26:38Tim Seymour:Brandon. Hey, Melissa, that's right. LVMH is selling the Marc Jacobs brand to brand management firm WHP Global, ending a nearly 30-year partnership. Marc Jacobs will remain creative director following the acquisition. WHP says the brand will become a cornerstone of its premium fashion portfolio. Alongside labels like Vera Wang and Rag & Bone, G3 Apparel Group is also joining the ownership group and will operate parts of the brand's direct-to-consumer and wholesale business. Now, deal terms were not disclosed, but WHP says the addition of Marc Jacobs will push the firm's global retail sales north of$9.5 billion.
27:11Melissa, send things back to you.
27:13Tim Seymour:All right, Brandon. Thanks, Brandon Gomez. There's a lot more fast... That's a big rag and bone guy, by the way.
27:18Karen Finerman:Actually, we all snickered. Yeah. I might even be wearing some rag and bone today. I'm not going to tell you what. I don't have that sequined coat, though, that guy was wearing. I don't think I can pull that off.
27:28Tim Seymour:There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Ford in focus. The automaker surging for a second straight day. What's fueling that drive higher? The traders are getting behind the wheel on this trade. Plus, updates from the mainland. The company's locking down some deals during President Trump's Beijing trip. And why the chart master is bullish on one group of China stocks. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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29:21Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Four chairs revving up for a second straight day. investors betting the company's partnership with Chinese battery tech giant CATL will kickstart the automaker's new energy business. The automaker hitting its highest intraday level since July 2023 during today's session. The stock is up more than 20 percent in just two days. Two days. This is not a chip stock. This is not a hyperscale. This is Ford, Carter. Well, it's in the news. I I mean, it's like if you put.com or AI into your title or something, obviously it's getting bid up for reasons like that. The question is, as an operating business, is it a good buy or sell here?
29:59You can't ever do valuation on this because you can lose money in any given year, make a lot of money. But we know that Walsh doesn't like it, right? The collective price target is below the current trading price. And, you know, I would say Paratou is at best. All right. Best couple of days it's had in a while. And Tim made fun of me a month or so ago. 40-year chart. Thank you, Tim. That's just what I was thinking. 40-year trade. Go back 40 years, and this is where it was trading. However, you get a close above 16, and that's light years from where we are now. That's a classic, Carter, I think you would agree.
30:31Bearish to bullish reversal. A couple more days like this, and all of a sudden, Ford's in play.
30:35Tim Seymour:I will play devil's advocate here. What if this marks a period in which Ford has to be re-rated because of its energy storage business? If it does sign a deal with a hyperscaler, that's a completely new stream of revenue outside the car business. Can you get on board that narrative? I think to Carter's point, if you just say, hey, we're an AI storage company, they're going to get the benefit from that. We're doing, you know, whatever, distributed networking off our energy business. So I could see catching a bid. And look, it's also one of these sort of underperforming cyclicals that people were all bowled up about earlier in the year.
31:08Start to talk about rotation. These are the type of stocks that are going to catch a bid, whether we believe the valuation or not.
31:13Karen Finerman:We got caught up, though, in their EV business just at its core when they were starting to show that they had, you know, the Ford F-150 EV was the most popular EV, yet they couldn't produce it profitably. By the way, Tesla can barely produce their cars profitably. So I feel like we have seen a lot of gimmicks. We talked about this on the closing bell over time. I thought we had a great discussion. And, yeah, it's the four o 'clock show. And, you know, you should watch that if you're not watching Fast Money. But I do think you should think about it. You can watch them both, Tim. You can watch both.
31:43Karen Finerman:Yes, that's true. That's true. It's not a would you rather. It's not. Definitely not. It's not a would you rather. But I would rather own GM over than Ford. And you didn't ask me this because I just think it's not about gimmicks. It's about six times forward. A company's never been more profitable, never been run better. And I'm not buying an auto company for an EV storage business.
32:01Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, the latest wheeling and dealing from Trump's China visit. The CEO is leaving the mainland with a win. And why the chart master says it could be time to dive into China tech stocks, the technical take when Fast Money returns.
32:18Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money Socks. Jumping as investors eye the latest developments out of President Trump's trip to China. The Dow closing above 50K for the first time since February, it is less than a percent from a record. The S &P is seeing its first ever close above 7 ,500, and the Nasdaq also closing at a record, up nearly nine-tenths of a percent. And check out the JGB, Japan's 10-year government bond, closing with its highest yield in 29 years. dating all the way back to June of 1987. And some more after-hours action shares of Figma jumping after topping earnings and revenue estimates. So we see that stock higher by about 9 % right now.
32:54Tim Seymour:Meantime, President Trump saying China has agreed to buy 200 planes from Boeing. For more on all of the deal-making done in Beijing, Eamon Jaffers joins us with the very latest. Eamon. Hey there, Melissa. It is daybreak here in Beijing, and President Trump gets underway with his third day of visit here in Beijing. In a couple of hours time, he's going to go to Jiangmin Gardens, which is a former imperial pleasure palace that is now the home to the Communist Party apparatus just outside of Beijing. It is sort of the most sensitive and secretive site in Beijing. The president is going to have tea with Xi Jinping, and then he's going to have a bilateral lunch with Xi Jinping before he gets on Air Force One and heads home.
33:41That's when we think we might start to get a readout of what was agreed to behind the scenes amid all of the pageantry and the iconic displays on Tiananmen Square that we saw yesterday. We had a closed-door session. We haven't had a whole lot of information out of that closed-door session about what, if anything, was agreed to. President Trump did do an interview with Fox News personality Sean Hannity yesterday, during which he said that the Chinese side had agreed to purchase some Boeing aircraft. Here's what he said. One thing he agreed to today is going to order 200 jets. That's a big thing, Boeing.
34:19Boeing. 200 big ones. That's a lot of jobs. That's a lot. Boeing wanted 150, got 200. he said sort of I think it was a commitment I mean you know sort of like a statement but I think it was a commitment.
34:37So Melissa we'll be looking to get some confirmation from Boeing about what exactly was agreed to here in terms of the order size what type of aircraft over how many years will these aircraft be purchased and of course the market's going to decide whether that 200 figure is enough to satisfy their appetite. There have been some discussion of a 500 aircraft purchase last year. That seems to have dwindled down to 200 here. Still a big number for Boeing coming out of this. And we'll see if any other companies have similar announcements to make once the president leaves China, Melissa.
35:12Tim Seymour:Yeah, the glaring sort of omission out of all this, Eamon, is Taiwan on the U.S. side of things. I mean, China made it very clear right from the start where they stood on Taiwan and where they wanted the U.S. to stand. And at the same time, the U.S. readout had no mention of Taiwan and President Trump declined to answer reporters' question about Taiwan. Is that expected to come up in these sort of last hours the two leaders will be together? It's going to be interesting to watch and see if it does come up, Melissa, Because to your point, you know, Xi Jinping was, I think you could say, stern and bracing in his warning on Taiwan to President Trump yesterday.
35:51We'll see if he mentions it again. It may be that he has sort of, you know, touched that base and is ready to move on. If he mentions it again, that'll be really hammering home the point. And we'll see if President Trump pushes back at all. We don't have any reporting from the White House as to what the president said on Taiwan in response. So is the president considering Taiwan as sort of a bargaining chip in a global trade? Or is he going to remain steadfast on U.S. policy on Taiwan? We'll see whether there's any change afoot there, but that would be significant if we do see it, Melissa.
36:27Tim Seymour:Yeah. Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers, live for us from Beijing. I don't know if the president, if our president can use Taiwan as a bargaining chip. It seems like the Chinese president could use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, seeing that 90 percent of the world's AI chips are produced at Taiwan Semi. And if Taiwan actually fell into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, I don't think TSMC could make those chips for the U.S. market anymore.
36:53Karen Finerman:If Taiwan wasn't leveraged and a bargaining chip for China with the U.S., Intel would be trading at 120 bucks. So there's a lot. I don't even know where it closed today, but somewhere. There's no question Taiwan Semi is such a strategically important company to not just the United States, Japan for sure, to a lesser extent, but significant to Korea. So, you know, I think this is not going to be solved. I don't think either side really wants to get to it, but it is an important time for Xi to plant the flag in the ground and just say this is a nonstarter for me. and he's reasserted that. The existential risk to the NASDAQ and maybe the broader market is that.
37:34If it's some blockade or something worse than that in Taiwan and that's been a risk for a while. Now, the market hasn't cared, but now it's front and center in terms of who has it as a bargaining chip. And, you know, we're involved in this war now where oil price is still$100 a barrel. Like, is there going to be some horse trading around that? What is horse trading? I don't know that there are many issues.
37:53Tim Seymour:It feels like it's the same error as holding the bag.
37:56Karen Finerman:That was actually easier for me to understand, By the way, it's not that difficult. Yeah.
38:00Tim Seymour:What do you think of this issue? Look, I think your guys' point about Taiwan Semi is the right one. This is a geopolitical issue, a military issue, but also a business issue. Look, we've recently seen China exert their influence with rare earths. We're seeing Iran exert their influence with Strait of Hormuz. And, you know, if you've read Ship Wars, you know Taiwan Semi and those foundries are our next level of this. That said, China is also integrated into the global tech and global economy. And part of the pushback they got on rare earths was not just from the U.S. It was from the global community saying this is sort of an unacceptable thing to do to the global community.
38:33So I agree with you. It's those chip foundries that are the number one concern in this case. But I think you have your first answer. The answer was there was silence.
38:41Tim Seymour:Yeah, there's no good way to answer the question. So it's going to stay silenced. That's my bet. Yeah. Well, the K-Web, the China Internet ETF, posted its worst day of the year, down more than 4%. But the chartmaster here put out a note this morning saying that it is time to buy. What do you see? Yeah, so obviously a huge laggard trading at 52-week lows. It's the ETF that tracks Chinese internet stocks like Baidu and Tencent and Alibaba and so forth. I think it's very asymmetrical. So here's the first chart of several, down about 36%. Again, 52-week lows, almost two-year lows. But it has this minor basing and bottoming formation that's been going on well before any conversations with China.
39:19Let's put some lines and arrows and do some things. So we have what is generally an early stage bearish to bullish reversal buy. You could also add a downtrend line. In effect, since the peak, this 36 % drop, and we have just now started to poke our heads up against that line, and I think we breach it to the upside. Other ways to draw the lines, you can do converging trend lines. This would be sort of an ascending wedge. It's also resolving to the upside out of that formation. and then finally one last iteration, a very minor sort of ascending triangle. It doesn't matter what you call these things.
39:55This is what a reversal looks like. And if it doesn't reverse, I think you've got, again, asymmetry. You just waste time. But there's nothing in this price act that would suggest it's about to take out the lows and go lower. So it's either you try it, it doesn't work, or you do catch a lift.
40:09Tim Seymour:All right. Coming up, Coinbase and Robinhood in rally mode and Bitcoin keeps climbing. The headlines out of D.C. powering the crypto trade today. Fast Money is back in two.
40:26Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money. Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks taking a leg higher today. The Clarity Act crypto bill passing a key hurdle in the Senate. Emily Wilkins has got the details here. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, yeah, look, this bill, it's the top legislative priority for the crypto industry. It's a rules of the road bill that's going to dictate exactly how crypto will be regulated by the federal government. And crypto companies say that this is going to be key for expanding who uses digital assets and when. All Republicans on the Senate banking panel, as well as two Democratic senators, advanced the bill out of committee today.
41:03It still has ways to go. Members from both sides of the aisle pledged to keep working on this bill, working on things like law enforcement, ethics provisions before this could potentially get a vote in the full Senate. But it is a huge win for the crypto industry, especially when you consider who they were up against. They've been battling with banking groups for months over crypto's ability to offer rewards for stablecoin holders. Now, banks said that that was too much like bank interest. And while the bill that advanced today does put some limits on rewards, banks say that they are still loopholes that the crypto industry could use to match kind of what banks are trying to offer customers.
41:43Meanwhile, both labor groups and law enforcement groups also came out against this bill. But again, crypto has really ramped up their lobbying power and campaign donations in the past few years to the point where it is a real possibility that we could see this bill go ahead and pass the Senate in the coming months over some of the objections. Really shows exactly how much power crypto has on the Hill right now. And of course, based on what the markets have, how confident they feel about this bill eventually crossing the finish line. Melissa?
42:14Tim Seymour:Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Although I don't know if we can make parallels to the pot industry and how many times we thought that various provisions were going to pass, which would allow, you know, the industry to bank, for instance, and then it doesn't happen. I don't know. How do you feel about this Clarity Act, given that the financial services companies are broadly still leery of it?
42:35Karen Finerman:And hold a lot of power. So despite the 120 million that was spent on pro-crypto candidates into the election season and the amount of lobbying support behind this, and you can make an argument it's bipartisan. Listen, you could fall back on traditional definitions of those who like regulation and those who like less regulation. But to me, clarifying the regulatory extension or what the regulatory framework is over the asset class is positive for the asset class. More regulation, I know that sounds awful, but more regulation in this case sounds what we need. Anti-money laundering, very important, understanding how people can be taxed.
43:10Karen Finerman:Government needs to know that. That doesn't bother me. If you think Bitcoin is rounding here and trading back up to the low 90s, Coinbase, which has been cut in half since July of last year, I think that's where you want to be. Now, you're not going to make a case on valuation, but you will make a case on the leverage it has around the Bitcoin price. So I don't believe in Bitcoin here. I still think it's going to be challenged. But if you think Bitcoin is going higher, I'd rather buy Coinbase than Bitcoin.
43:32Tim Seymour:Do you believe that, Carter? I mean, as charts go, Bitcoin's a pair of twos. It's just like, is there a big thesis based on price action to be long? No. Does it look imminently at risk of dropping and paying you off as a short seller? No. All right. Coming up, a software surge. But can the group keep climbing after a rough couple of months? What are traders seeing in store next for Fast Money in Tune?
44:04Tim Seymour:Welcome back to Fast Money, the iShares tech software ETF, IGV, notching our move of the day today. it's popped more than 2 % today and is now at up to 20 % off of its April low. $74 was that low there. It's at 90. We had some notable outperformers in today's session. ServiceNow, MicroStrategy, or actually Strategy was before known as MicroStrategy. What do you make of this move here? Carter did a piece last night. I think he was saying, get out of semis and maybe get into its software. And I agree. I think the IGV is a classic bearish or bullish reversal. I think valuations has got too cheap.
44:42Seemingly, the spotlight is off a lot of these names. Very quietly, Oracle's had a bounce, Microsoft as well. I think you got to be long the IGV here. I think there's more room to go. Yeah. What do you think? A scenario we're pretty cautious about, I think, still. You know, if you like the AI bottom. It's going to kill it. Yeah. And, you know, it's a tough trade because we're having the opposite argument. Like for a lot of these AI stocks, we're wondering if they're going to grow into the numbers. For Microsoft, we're wondering if the valuation or the software, if the valuation reflects where those earnings numbers are going.
45:11So it is the biggest short in price momentum. So you're going to really need a change in sentiment here, I think, to get that moving.
45:17Karen Finerman:Sorry, but you're bullish on Microsoft, though, relatively? Is that what you're saying? Well, see, IGV is a little weird, right? You're basically taking a play on three stocks. I know we've highlighted all these smaller stocks, but that is Palantir, Microsoft, and Oracle. And you have to have a pretty constructive view on those. You know, Microsoft, to me, it doesn't feel like a near-term trade that I'd want to be in. If you're talking, if you're telling me six to nine months out, that stock could be off where it is, off the lows, yes. But tactically speaking, I think it's going to be hard to get Microsoft moving with the debt overhangs and the free cash flow concerns.
45:47Tim Seymour:Up next, final trades.
45:56Tim Seymour:Final trade time, Stuart Kaiser. I'll put my money where my mouth is, go with the memory trade DRAM. Carter Braxton North. K-Web, Chinese internet stops. Over the lawn. Guy. Halberton's sister. Tim.
46:10Karen Finerman:EEM, great, but more importantly, with me, behind me, are the Pissarro Center, Georgetown University's best and brightest. Let's give it up for in New York. Fast Money having a great time. Looking at global policy, this is why the world is going to be a better place. All these smart students behind me.
46:27Tim Seymour:Did you give Final Trade? Oh, EEM. All right. Emerging money. Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money Starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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From the publisher
Shares of AI chipmaker Cerebras surging in its Nasdaq debut, topping $100 billion in market cap after a blockbuster IPO. How the rest of tech fared in today’s rally, and how the Fast Money traders are positioning in the group. Plus Applied Materials reports results, Biogen pushes ahead despite disappointing drug data, and the latest out of President Trump’s China trip. The CEOs and companies able to leave the mainland with a deal.
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