Intel On The Move After Reporting Results… And “Nonchalant” Market Warning 4/23/26

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0:47Eye drops that work all day to prevent the release of histamines that cause itchy, allergy eyes. And the winner by knockout is Hadaday. Hadaday, bring it on. Live from the Nasdaq Market site, in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. And here is what's on tap tonight. Inside Intel's massive earnings beat and stock reaction. Shares currently trading at what would be all-time highs. Can they keep those gains? We're going to bring you all the details from the quarter and what you should do with the shares right now. And syncing software. The group resuming its downtrend in a big way today.

1:29One of our traders says it's headed even lower. They're going to lay out the case coming up. Plus, what's got shares of United Rentals jumping? No idea, Joe. Isn't that a Karen? Yes, it is. Nice work. Thank you. I know. I do my... I know. I'm prepared. I'm wearing Lululemon pants. Lululemon goes downward a dog. I'm never sure what to think of that after naming its next CEO. and healthcare headaches, why the chart master sees even more pain ahead for the worst performing sector this year. I'm Joe Kernan, in case you don't know. In for Melissa Lee, coming to you live from Studio B, above where Squawk Box is.

2:12But we're at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight. We've got Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Carter Worth. And we're going to start with Intel surging after reporting first quarter results. How much do we own? Can we order in tonight? I mean, as just taxpayers, how much do we own here? The government. Yes. Yes. Isn't that originally? Isn't it the royal we? I thought you were saying we can own Intel. 274. We can only own. We can only own Versant and happy to do so. But we're ordering in. Yes, because Intel stock did hit an all time high just in after us right now. And what's driving it isn't just the numbers.

2:50It's really where the growth is coming from. So data center revenue came in over five billion bucks, well above estimates as agentic AI drives a surge in CPU demand. The CFO, Dave Zisner, told me they're so constrained on the server side that they're shifting PC production capacity over to meet data center demand more so in the second half of the year. They've also been raising their average selling costs for PCs as well as CPUs to offset the supply crunch within the CPU part and then the memory costs on the PC part. But with higher pricing flowing through the second quarter, the CFO said both pricing and improving output will be meaningful contributors to revenue growth.

3:30On the foundry front, this is what Wall Street is definitely watching. The segment still has essentially one internal customer. The CFO said 18A yields, which is a more advanced manufacturing process, are tracking better than expected. And 14A, which is not expected until 2028, is already ahead of where 18A was at the same stage. In other words, they are doing better on both fronts. However, they did not announce a new partner or a new customer. He also said advanced packaging is now shaping up as a multi-billion dollar per customer business. And then lastly, tariff fab. The CFO called the Elon Musk partnership, quote, a great endorsement of Intel's foundry and said there are, quote, many other customers behind, end quote, with Elon.

4:11A detail still being worked out, though, with both CEOs. Intel is trying to turn that foundry from a money pit into a competitive asset. So it is a sign of strength, but they didn't finalize any details about that foundry business deal. It's the market cap. I was blown away where it was when it was at 18 because I watched it for 40 years, probably. And I watched the AMD Intel Wars. When AMD was$2? Yeah. And it was always, I remember Jerry Sanders. I knew him. And what's AMD's market cap? All of a sudden, I looked at that after some of the AI deals that it embarked upon. But Intel, this puts it all the way back to about$350 billion.

4:53What is it? $497. $497. AMD. Did you know that, Carter, that that was going to happen? I have a number at the top of my list. Anyway, Christina, thanks. We've got – actually, we do this a certain way, and I always – We talk about it first. Yeah, we're going to. But then we're going to trade it? Or you want to talk about it? Oh, I usually – sometimes I sit here and join in. But maybe not with you. Please do. And then you can – in fact, you can come in and talk about it tomorrow. I'm personally invited you. No, no. The only thing I would add is that the stock – wow, I'm getting a little embarrassed right now for saying that.

5:24But the stock has run up a lot because it's been less about fundamentals and more about the narrative. You had President Trump, you know, tweeting about it, Elon Musk. You had Google saying that they're going to extend a partnership. And so maybe this earnings report really shows that revenue is climbing and that they potentially, you know, margins are improving, et cetera. So the numbers are starting to show some of that narrative and proving it. I know you guys are looking at me, but yes. OK, I won't. I'll look at I'll look there. Intel results coming after the Van X semi ETF close at a record.

5:54The SMH added a percent with Texas Instruments, Microchip, and OnSemi among the best performers. The SMH up after hours as well, which is not surprising. Tim. Yes, sir. First of all, Joe, it's so great to have you. Watch how naturally I say this. Tim. Oh, yes. You've been pointing to semi-out performance. It's so nice if you don't notice that, Joe, over the last couple months. I knew she liked the United Rentals, right? Well. But I knew you'd been talking about. And we knew you were going to bring your special flair today. So it's great to have you. Thank you. It's been a long day. You were welcoming me.

6:31And it's it is hard. It's hard work. It's hard to get back in here. Well, again, you put in a long day. So great to have you. And it's I mean, semis seem like they'd put in a hard day going into today. And yet look at this move. The fact that we're opening the show with Intel, to me, is startling. Not because it wasn't a startling number and the move in the stock hasn't been extraordinary. but because Intel has been so irrelevant. This renaissance in the CPU, which is what we've talked about. I mean, it's kind of the game is kind of played right into their hands. I still think that the market is doing too much with this whole concept of Lipitan's ability to, you know, asset sales, potentially strategic deals.

7:09We're hearing about Tesla now. I mean, a lot of this feels a little bit like the Tesla model. Look over here while I'm doing this. The reality is that there are exciting things going on, But there's a limit to what they I think they can do on the production side, given some supply constraints and some balance sheet constraints. Having said that, as you referenced, Joe, semiconductors are going through maybe their most extraordinary period in the market. I mean, outperformance and I mean outright absolute moves to all time highs, more so than they have at any time in the last three years when all we've done is talk about semis.

7:43That's extraordinary, seeing as I don't know what inning we're in, hopefully in Flushing, where it seems like it's late innings early here. I do think we're in middle innings here, and it's extraordinary considering we've had a big run. Do you have a lot on Intel? Well, I do find this quarter just absolutely stunning. And going in, the bar was, I think, getting higher and higher. Obviously, the stock has had a huge run. But the magnitude of the revenue beats is really extraordinary. 10 %? 10 %? 10 % or depending on which data centers. No, but just overall. Overall, on every metric. And Munster says that's headed up.

8:21Supposedly. And you were talking to Santoli. I was. I love Santoli. Inside out. Well, here's the thing. I'm less interested in the 10 % beat on revenue and the guidance up 9%. I mean, this is a company that's growing earnings off a very low base. So if you want to just say it was a huge beat, I read that a couple times here. Here's the last time the stock was 70 bucks. OK, you got to go back to 2021. There was peak earnings in sales that year. OK, they basically did$79 billion in sales,$5.47 in earnings. They had 57 % gross margins. OK, so this year it's at the same spot. Let's just assume numbers are going to go up kind of big, right?

8:56They're expected to do$60 billion in sales. I'm just going to throw that out there as far as the guide, if you want to kind of move that out. They're going to have, what, I don't know, 55 cents in earnings. Let's call that a dollar. OK. And 37 percent gross margin. So we all know how to do math. All right. So the last time the stock was at 70. Just like that. Just think about that. So the multiple here is absolutely insane for it to grow into that is going to be a real problem. And then here's the other thing. They're losing a lot of money on manufacturing. OK, they lost two and a half billion dollars in the quarter.

9:25Now they have one customer and maybe this tariff fab thing works out well for them. This company does not have a great track record in manufacturing. Now, I think it's great that they're going to be bringing manufacturing back here to the United States, but that's also going to be costly. And it's also going to be costly if they're shifting production away from PC chips over to these CPUs that they can sell into data centers. So to me, I think it's like it feels like a bubble. That's all I'm saying. And then the SMH is now up 60 percent in a month. I agree with that. I mean, I haven't owned it for a I haven't owned it and missed the entire run at every point along the way.

9:59I thought it was expensive. And I still think it's expensive. And with the move, I particularly think it's expensive. But if you were owning it today for this, I think you're pretty happy with what these earnings are. So whatever, you know, excitement and forward multiple you want to put into it, I agree that the tariff app is great. But that's, you know, three years down the road. So I can't, you know, the multiple is just way too high for me. But that's been the wrong way to do. So many ways to look at it. I mean, we know that if it opens where it's indicated now, post-close, it will finally take out its high, all-time high of August.

10:31So then what does that mean if you're back to where you were in the year 2000, just of inflation? It means you're still down about 40 percent. So there's so many ways to tell the story. It depends how you want to do the headline. It's also worth note that Intel's relative performance to the tech sector peaked at around 96. And so, again, these are great moments. You can trade this, and that's all true. But as an asset, the greatest one of all, right, a whole, it turned out to be the biggest dot of all, right? This was the number one. It was the number one by far. So the question is, and also Texas Instruments, it's not idiosyncratic.

11:07The whole group is doing it. And herein is the rub. The only time where you've gone up 45 % in a three-week period, it happens during the last part of the bubble in 98, 99. and it also happened in 01, 02, 03, on the way down, when you have these violent countertrend moves. So we assume we're not in a downtrend, we're in an uptrend. Does it mean that we're close to that former peak? It would have to suggest that. Do I have to revise everything I said about the CHIPS Act, how the government can't pick winners? Didn't it look like a bad pick when we gave so much money to Intel and then all of a sudden it's like...

11:45It looked like a subsidy, too. I mean, it looked like a bailout. They get warrants, though, and they did have to meet certain. But is it working? And I'm not just blaming, you know, it was a bipartisan deal. I'm not blaming Biden. But then the Trump administration went all in on this, too. They know how to pick stocks. Obviously. Do they? They do? Yes, actually. But didn't they convert the grants to stocks? So, again, that was the trick and have a ball. I mean, that wasn't the dumbest thing we could think of, right? I mean, I can't do it. I have to give credit to both administrations. I think I do.

12:17Yeah. Are you going to explode? I don't know. I've never done that before. Let's bring in Gene Munster. For more, he's managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, it was a story stock on the way up, and now it's real. That's what you're thinking right now? Well, let me back up about a year. Just at Deepwater, we own a lot of AI infrastructure. We're big believers. We're in the second inning. And we also sold Intel a year ago. Never brought it back. And I think as I listen to the conversation here, we're kind of making the same mistake. We're overthinking this. We're looking at what the multiple is.

12:56We can look at the revenue multiple, which trades at about half of where TSM and NVIDIA are. So there's a little bit of valuation justification there. But I think we're overthinking this. What's going on here, this is a broken company. This company was on the ropes. I have worked with people who have left Intel because they felt they had no more mojo. And what has happened from going from revenue down 4 % in December to up 7 % in March, and if they do the same thing to their June quarter in terms of exceeding expectations, exceeding the high end of the same rate, they'll grow at 24%. So minus 4 plus 7 plus 24%.

13:33What's going on here is this is a rising tide. Now, I'm not saying we're going to buy the stock tomorrow. I struggle with missing something this spectacular. but what is going on here is this is testimony to everything that we have been hearing. We are still very early in AI. It's testimony to the concept that Elon's been talking about, which is that chips are a big bottleneck. This advanced packaging piece is a major headache for how we're going to basically fuel the AI brain in the next five years. And Intel, whether they have still dysfunctionality, with all of their deficiencies, this defines the rising tide lifts all boats.

14:16I don't know what you do with that when it comes to do you own the stock, do you not own the stock, but let's just call it like it is. That's what's going on here. If Gelsinger were still there, would we be here right now? Do you think? Is he somewhere right now just like, is he like this or is he happy? Because he's still got a lot of intel. Probably happy. Probably happy. But I mean, I think that I don't want to take anything away from their team, their leadership, any of that. But again, this is, I think, evidence that, you know, that this rising tide I saw Nvidia is down in the aftermarket.

14:50There's going to be this conversation about share taking between Nvidia and Intel, some sort of a distorted conversation around that. I mean, the reality is, is that we're still very early. And these bottlenecks, we talked about the tariff ab in 2029. I think Karen, you mentioned that. That's probably the right time to think about it. But think about that context is we're going to be having this conversation for years. So Joe, I don't know. Again, I don't want to go and pile in, you know, just there's a natural reaction not to do that. But there is something still bigger going on here. And I think that we have to look beyond Intel and look at the broader AI trade and recognize we are still very early.

15:25So, but Gene, how about, you know, I get the fact that we've now rotated into CPUs and we've actually been doing that. But, you know, what do you do with then Texas Instruments? Because, again, it's one thing to say Intel has had the market come to them. And I still don't think this bails out Intel, although a lot of people might be throwing money at them. But from balance sheet issues and dynamics that I understand, Lit Butano's done a nice job with layoffs and trying to kind of refocus. But what do you do with the other names that weren't this beleaguered, vertically integrated player that, you know, makes everything it then needs to mass produce?

16:04Well, not all the stocks are going to kind of equally benefit. Unfortunately, I just don't know a ton about, you know, Texas instrument when it comes to the stock. And so I don't want to speak to that. But I do kind of want to speak to, again, back to, you know, the broader AI trade. The question comes down to, when I think about this rising tide and impacting a lot of different players, they don't all have to be vertically integrated. There's a lot of suppliers, whether it's on energy or optics, that are having meaningful beneficiaries here. The question is not, at this point, whether or not the revenue numbers are going higher than expectation.

16:36The question comes down to, will the market reward that? We have seen NVIDIA continuing to raise and raise expectations, and the stock largely has not been rewarded for that. So, Tim, as I kind of think about the dynamic and think about this rising tide, you know, it's definitely going on. It's going to go on for years. The question is at what point or how much the market is going to continue to expand the multiple on these companies in anticipation of this growth. All right, Gene. Thank you. And keep us posted with the details from the call. So are you going to tell me whether they buy this or not?

17:11Is that traded? No, I think you sell it. I mean, I think it actually gives up a lot of these gains probably tomorrow. I think it's probably pretty exhausted. And maybe this is a bit of a short squeeze. It was probably a short headed into the print given where the stock ran and the expectations. But, again, I go back to a 10 % beat on sales and a 10 % beat on the guy. I just don't find it particularly interesting, especially for a stock. You know, it used to be, okay, you beat by 10%, you're up 10%. No, no, not when your revenue is up 10%. You're not counting operating leverage. Okay, but I mean, like, just, you know, okay, 13%.

17:45My point is, is like, this is getting a little much. Texas Instruments, again, you know, 9 % of their sales. And listen, I'm not like, this is not hurting me one way or another. I'm just saying that if you're going and chasing this right here, I just think you missed it. You missed it once. You missed it twice. You missed it three times. And so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. And, you know, this is probably one reason, though, if you've seen Broadcom has gone up in a straight line, right? So if you're looking for chip plays, you need to do things that are going to play into inference that are getting more specific.

18:13And I think that's one of the reasons why Google, one of the only hyperscalers that's back towards its prior all-time highs in this period that we've been, because they have that TPU exposure and they're getting orders outside of their own usage. So to me, there's other ways to play it. I'd rather buy Google here than Intel. All right. Meanwhile, the software side of tech, that trade dropping the IGV's losses led by ServiceNow, which saw its worst day on record. The company's subscription revenue taking a hit due to the war in Iran and the headwinds dragging down names like Workday, as you can see there, Salesforce.

18:49Also, IBM, look at IBM. Microsoft also tumbling after it announced its first ever voluntary buyout. about 7 % of its U.S. employees are eligible. Karen. Yeah, so I don't own service now, but I do think this, I mean, first of all, IGV has had an enormous bounce back. So I think it was sort of poised to maybe correct a little. But one could make, if you want to make the Saspocalypse case, the bearish case, you can sort of, I guess, start here. I mean, this is a company normally, you know, Bill McDermott is extremely bullish all the time. and wanted to sound bullish here. And I think the street's just not buying at the moment.

19:31Like, could this be the one that we remember? The stock's obviously down a lot already before this, but this is a pretty dramatic response. I mean, just a testament to momentum in both directions, right? I mean, a stock in an established downturn that's dropping and gapping, it did it again. Momentum as a factor is the single most robust in most quant models, and the opposite is for a strong stock that gets stronger. At some point, you say it's too far, right? We can get a mean reversion, but buying a stock like ServiceNow just because it's down, there is no known technique that makes that a good one.

20:02I'm ready for anyone to say what they want, but they told me to tease. But I want to give everyone a chance. Tim, you're good. I like your pants tonight. How about that? They're Lululemons. I like yours. You look pretty good in them jeans. I said that to you, too, and I asked whether it's okay for me. But those are not normal, like those you don't buy at a normal place. See, those are nice, right? Thank you. You're welcome. Thanks for highlighting that I am wearing jeans. They're not just jeans. Do they begin with a G? They do. And end with an I? They could. All right. Okay. All right. All right.

20:38That narrows it down. That's the T's already. That is T's. Okay, now T's again. Coming up, industrials. Oh. You're not, huh? Not the only one. I'm looking at you. You're not the only one. You're not the only one. I forgot, didn't you? I forgot. Industrials in focus, a couple of key names climbing higher in today's session. What's behind the moves and how much higher can they go? Details are next. Plus, we're watching shares of Nike after its latest job cut announcements. The details, plus what the Lulu CEO announcement means for that company. Don't go anywhere. Fest Money is back in just a couple minutes.

21:17This summer, the Atlas Obscura podcast is going on a World Cup adventure. From late May to mid-July, we are dropping special episodes every Monday and Wednesday, exploring the strange, incredible, and hidden places in all 16 host cities. Think unexpected museums, secret landmarks, stories you won't find in any guidebook. Whether you're traveling for the matches or just listening along, we will take you somewhere surprising. New episodes all summer long, wherever you get your podcasts. Hadaday presents In the red corner The undisputed, undefeated Weed Whacker Guys Champion of hurling grass And pollen everywhere And in the blue corner The challenger, extra strength Hadaday Eye drops that work all day to prevent the release of histamines That cause itchy, allergy eyes And the winner By knockout Is Hadaday Parity, bring it on.

22:20There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still, not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we're here to help you keep going further. Capella University, what can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more. And welcome back to Fast Money. United Rentals soaring nearly 23 % today after boosting its full year sales guidance last night, the stock trading at its highest levels of the year. and fellow industrial named Caterpillar. Meanwhile, closing at a record up another 3 % today. It's now up six sessions in a row, 13 out of the last 14, gaining almost 16 % in that time.

22:57And Karen, as we've been talking about earlier, you are in United Rentals. I am in United Rentals. It's a big position. I've been in it for a long, long time. This was a really, really good quarter. One of the things that happened last quarter when the stock traded down was that they had all these great big projects, but they didn't have the right equipment where they needed to have it ultimately. And it cost them a lot of money to deliver it and move it. And they were very effective in getting that delivery expense way down. That was excellent. So the margins were good. Also, this is a team that likes to under-promise, over-deliver.

23:29So they're going to raise guidance. I'm going to believe them. The thing is, it's not super cheap here. So this is a really nice, it's fun, it's up 22%. But if you don't know it today, I don't know that I would have to jump in tomorrow. I'm staying with it for sure for the long term. But good for them. And these projects are going to be multi-year projects. So we know they're going to have good revenue for some time. And how long have you been in it? At least 10 years. 10 years? Yeah. Well, I wasn't expecting that. She's a long-term investor. I'm a long-term investor on a show called Fast Money.

23:59Are you the only person here that is in this? I think this is Karen's baby. I mean, she's been on it. She's been right. And I think there's been both a strategic and kind of a secular element of what's been going on in the space. But I'll talk about Caterpillar, if that's fair. What do you think? I'm ready to hear that. I'll jump in there. Well, I mean, I think there's a story with Caterpillar, too, that there actually has been macro that's been very supportive. They're also strategically well positioned in the energy space, especially on pipeline manufacturing. And that's been part of the call for kind of fresh green shoots in the space.