Intel Posts Best Day Since 1987 and Counting Down to Big Tech Results 4/24/26

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0:43Viewers can enjoy every game changing play faster and more seamlessly than ever. All on a network built to deliver unforgettable moments as close to live as possible. The ultimate experience for the American sports fan. Learn more at ComcastCorporation.com slash sports. Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Intel's unprecedented rally, the long-lagging semi-stock soaring more than 23 percent to all-time highs and bringing the rest of the chip trade with it. Did the company just give the green light to all of AI?

1:19We'll debate that. It's not just semi-earnings on our minds. Nearly$16 trillion worth of mega-cap tech reporting next week. what you should be watching and how the options markets are setting up for results. Plus, Novo finally catches a break in the obesity drug race. Alibaba takes its AI behind the wheel and feeling groovy. Psychedelic stocks getting some love from the Trump administration this week. What's next for the space and how to trade the action now? I'm Melissa Leacom, D. Locker, studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, and Mike Cope. And we start off with that semi-surge led by none other than Intel.

1:53Well, shares of the chipmaker are seeing their best day since 1987. Wow. After trounced earnings expectations last night and gave strong guidance for the current quarter, the stock closing at a record for the first time in nearly 26 years. The gains helping power the broader semi-trade, too. The SMH ETF surging 5 % to an all-time high, while the stocks posted an 18th straight day in the green, extending its longest winning streak ever. The world's biggest chip stock and another notable winner today, NVIDIA, of 4%, and now just a stone's throw from its own intraday record. NVIDIA, remember, announced it was taking a$5 billion stake in Intel last September.

2:29That followed the Trump administration investing nearly$9 billion in the month before. Both those bets have paid off nicely. Shares of Intel have more than tripled since. So did we just get the all clear for the semi-trade and maybe even for the AI trade overall? Tim, what do you think? Was this the all clear or did we get that like two weeks ago? I mean, and I love how, you know, refreshed update turnaround is happening at Intel. We priced in turnaround at Intel six weeks ago. But there's no question that with some fresh data points and the street has an opportunity to not only really assess the bottom up of Intel, but this has been a top down bottom up story.

3:09Right. The whole, as we say, the CPU dynamic, which is we've gone from being GPU to CPU. Now, CPU may be dominating GPU as we get past inference and as we get out of, you know, well past large language models more into agentic. And I think if I listen to the analyst that I read today, this was the story. They're now talking about the addressable market in CPU. The thing that's fascinating here is that we're giving Intel the credit on the bottom up. In other words, this is a company that can get it right, that can truly operate more efficiently, that can find the balance sheet. And it just tells you how people either want to believe.

3:47And I do believe Chips USA is a big part of this story. But the addressable market on CPUs is now the story. Yeah, it is amazing that, you know, all the things that you national, the national champion for chip makers, like all these things were in place. But it's the CPU story that's really come into the fore. The idea that it's not just memory that is being constrained, that if you want to play the constraints in the AI trade and that's sort of the safer place to be, that CPUs are now that answer. Yes, although, you know, you have to think it all. There's demand all the way along the chain. Right.

4:20And the growth there in the CPOs is really what's sort of just exploding right now. The Intel thing, the one thing I found interesting was that normally when you see a beat of this magnitude, you see a sort of wholesale re-rating of the stock. And there weren't that many analysts that have a buy right now. I mean, there's been some great concern about, is the valuation getting way ahead of where the story is? And a lot has to go right for them to be at this valuation. So it's already, you know, sort of discounting a lot to go right. However, I've said that for a really long time. Totally missed the Intel one.

4:55But it's not at all surprising to me that an NVIDIA would be up on a day like today. It's ironic, isn't it, that Intel is pulling NVIDIA to all-time highs? And what it did to AMD was just astounding. So this does, though, feel a bit frothy. So I did buy this on the change of CEOs and on the government investment. I sold it. I bought it around$20, sold it at around$40, and I feel like I didn't get the most out of this one. I wouldn't buy it back now, but I do believe you have the government investment. You have the foundry business. You have Sovereign. And you have the NVIDIA shareholder stake in them as well.

5:38So there's a host of reasons why I think the story could go higher. But I would not buy it back now. I don't want to give any profit back. B, I don't think that this story. I think the most bullish thing about this is that the government's stake and they're not going to let them fail. So there could be more sovereign money. There could be more other. We're at a valuation that is so far away from that. Yeah, I know. Not going to fail. Yeah. Well, no, no, no. Fail, I mean, stock price going down from here, period. Their cost was like 24, right? No, no, no. I'm talking about me buying it now, us buying it now.

6:11Yes. Yes, they made$24 billion on unrealized gain right now, the government, a$24 billion, if not more, given today. So I think that when you look at this, if I'm going to tell people out there to buy it now, I can't do that. I'm surprised we haven't gotten a tweet from President Trump about how well the investment has gone. Because we usually get updates like that. Michael, I want to go to you on the point of valuation. I mean, it's I think that's why a lot of Wall Street analysts didn't upgrade the stock on the back of results, because you sort of feel like a you know what afterwards, after a 23 percent rally saying, you know what, now buy the stock.

6:47I mean, at these valuations, it's difficult if you didn't do that, you know, a week ago or five days ago. Yeah, I mean, I'm with Karen in the sense that what this does is it speaks to the whole trade, you know, overall, because basically what's going on here is you have a lot of componentry that is part of this, you know, very large build out that's going on. Intel is symptomatic of it, but it isn't the best value in the space, clearly. I mean, what are we looking at? Seven plus billion probably in total adjusted net income on a more than$400 billion valuation now. Now, I mean, there are definitely a lot of other places that if one is going to try to press this trade, that you could do it at a better valuation.

7:26NVIDIA clearly is one of those, you know, and other names like Micron. I realize that those are commodities, but I think on the DRAM side. But I think what's going on here is that if you're trying to pursue this trade, you might as well do it in places where the valuations are a whole lot lower. And then just you're sort of waiting for the slowdown, because I think that's also going to come at some point. I mean, Micron, you see there. I mean, look at the difference between Micron and Intel. I mean, yeah, I mean, I don't think right now valuations, obviously they don't matter. But I mean, look at look at NVIDIA.

7:58NVIDIA is cheaper than the market. It's got it's got inside of a market multiple. So I just think this is a case where the ability of Intel to control their costs, control essentially their their their production makes it again back to this total U.S. story. and a story that's very important right now in the world we live in. And there's all kinds of reasons that point to that. I just think the other part of all this, and it's with some irony, that yesterday's mega cap tech, and I do mean Intel, is part of the story that's getting today's mega cap tech back to the party. And for markets, this is extraordinary.

8:36I mean, this is a very big move. And today, we made a new relative high of the NASDAQ to the S &P. We've been waiting since July of last year to make relative highs. We all know that the MAG-7 was stuck in second gear and was downshifting. So I just think this is a really powerful message for the market. At a time when we were in the middle of earnings season, we're still early. Five of those seven report next week. And, you know, I don't know what they're going to do. I have a feeling they're going to be fine. But I do think that markets want to go a lot higher than they are. So two other chip makers that we don't think of that way, not makers, creators.

9:11There's Google, right, and Amazon, you know, who you wouldn't have thought. Maybe that's part of being Amazon has just been on a complete tear. Google, too. But maybe some of what's happening there is chip excitement for them as well. I mean, they are starting to get a lot of less reliance. What? Less reliance. Less reliance, right. More independence. Not only they get chip customers, but they also reduce their own cost. Yeah. So double benefits there. Maybe there's more to run in Google. All right. Meantime, the Justice Department dropping its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier today.

9:45CNBC's Steve Leisman has got the details. So that's one step in the right direction. But there's still another big thing that we don't know about. A couple of them. That's really that's exactly right, Melissa. The U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia announced that she's dropping her criminal probe into Fed Chair Jay Powell in favor of a probe by the Fed's inspector general. And apparently clearing the way for the Senate to confirm President Trump's Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh. But there are some uncertainties still late in the afternoon today. Jeanine Pirro saying she's dropped the case but will not hesitate to restart the criminal probe.

10:17The White House saying it is confident the Senate will swiftly confirm Warsh. Tim Scott, head of bank committee, says he welcomes the IG report but no comment on when there will be a committee vote. And Senator Tom Tillis, who's blocking all this, and the Fed have not had any comment yet. Unclear why Tillis hasn't commented and whether Piro's move is enough for him to end his pledge to block Warsh while the criminal probe was still ongoing. It could come at any minute or perhaps he's concerned about Piro's comment about restarting the probe. Those involved could want more formal assurances that the investigation is really over.

10:48Scott Alvarez, the former Fed General Counsel, telling my colleague Matt Peterson earlier today, my guess is that there's some discussion going on with Piro's office to understand exactly what she meant by the last sentence in her statement. That's about not hesitating to reopen it. What kind of facts would cause her to reopen the investigation when she initially started it without any facts? Calci prediction markets traded with an 85 percent probability, 86 percent there, that Warsh has confirmed before May 15th, the last day of Powell's term as chair. Not much concern there, then, that there's a real wrinkle in the process.

11:20All that would make next meeting, the one next week, Powell's last meeting as chair. Melissa, I was just texting with a top criminal defense attorney. He said it is not normal practice for the DOJ to formally announce or put in writing that an investigation is over. He said it would be the decent thing to do, but it's not often done. Not the norm. OK, well, I don't know how to read into it. Was she forced us to do that to clear this hurdle? But at the same time, if Senator Tillis's main concern is preserving and protecting Fed independence, I'm not surprised he has not backed down. And whether or not that both Tillis and the Fed are waiting for some kind of formal assurance that may or may not be coming, it puts a wrinkle in this thing.

12:08So we'll see what happens and whether or not Tillis is like, OK, her statement is enough or are they concerned they might, you know, confirm Warsh and then go back to investigating Powell? Steve, I guess the question I have is, is what does this ultimately mean for what's been going on inside the Fed? And, you know, boil in a little bit of your view on where we are with inflation and where the Fed is leaning. What we've heard from minutes is that the Fed was pretty sanguine about the world of inflation. This is a Fed that's not going to get pushed around. So where does this leave the markets and your interpretation of the Fed posture right now?

12:45Well, the first thing is, if you go back, you take a step back, Tim, and it's a really good question. And you say, what is preserving Fed's independence? It's a single senator who is leaving office and that that's what is giving him the courage to oppose the president. So I'm not sure the Fed and those at the Fed right now are taking much assurance right now that Congress of which to which the Fed reports, that Congress has its back because it's only Tillis. Now, there may be some other senators who may not let this go through if there's a criminal probe going on. But that's one question as to how strong is the Fed's independence from the administration, the executive.

13:23As for inflation, I think the Fed is in a big wait and see mode. They want to see when this inflation comes through because it's going to come through. There's no way to have gas prices go up the way they have and not at least raise energy prices in the inflation indicator with the question that goes on to the core. That's going to be April for sure. And maybe may as well. And then if you look at the probabilities, Tim, it is fascinating to me that the market believes Warsh is going to be Fed chair. But there is not much chance or not much pricing right now for a Fed rate cut all the way into July of 2027.

13:58Yeah. Steve, thanks. Steve Leisman. I mean, the war and what we've seen in terms of inflationary impact has really given cover to Kevin Walsh to be not as beholden, perhaps, to President Trump in terms of feeling the pressure to cut. If he wants to. If he wants that. Yes. Right. I don't know if he. Right. I don't know if he wants to cut. I think he is. It seems more conservative than that. This would be. Yeah. The war and that labor seems to be doing OK. And that sort of. The dual mandate. Yeah. The dual mandate lets them say, we don't need to do anything now. For a while. Yeah. But to not to not hike is also, you know, it's again, it's kind of like to not cut.

14:38In other words, it leaves a stance for the Fed. Like there was three weeks ago, there was a view that the Fed might have to do an emergency hike. And that's where the rates markets were messing around. And we were actually we were reporting about that. So I think I think there is some cover here. I do think there's some inflation. And one of the underlying stories of this week that we haven't spent a lot of time talking about is all the job cuts. that were announced by mega cap tech and big companies around the world. And I, you know, how can we not be looking at this as we get through earnings season?

15:08This is a great time with great numbers to talk about job cuts. I think we have more coming. Well, that's interesting because Kevin Warsh has made the case that AI enhances productivity. And so, therefore, inflationary forces aren't as strong. But at the same time, on the other side of the mandate, it could actually impact the jobs market and create more layoffs. So it's sort of an interesting push and pull there. For more on the markets, let's bring in Andrew Davis, head of macroeconomic research at Bryn Mawr Trust Advisors. Andrew, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. We've had a single-digit percent, a company's report on the S &P 500, and many of them have beaten.

15:40I'm just curious, what do you think we're going to hear? I mean, so far we've heard a lot of the Iran war is an impact. We can't quantify that yet. And investors seem okay with that. Yeah. I mean, taking a step back, I think that the market's proving resilient here. But the hurdle rate has gotten higher. So we're repricing to that. I think like we were talking about, the economy is stable. Labor market still in this low fire, slow hire environment. So that's good. But things around inflation, geopolitical risks, energy prices, what it means for rates and ultimately that earnings are being really high.

16:13So, look, I think that the market's really focused on it's put up or shut up. I want to see the margins improving and I want to see that follow through. And that's really what I'll be looking for, particularly next week with Wednesday being the main event. Yeah, I'm curious what your take. I mean, I know you don't talk about specific stocks, but in terms of the Intel rally and what it means for the markets, what it says that the semiconductor trade seems to continue to, you know, to be on fire and sort of be a leader in the NASDAQ. What's your take? Well, look, I mean, it's basically hardware sell capital light assets that that continues this year.

16:48But I think what's more interesting for me from a market breadth perspective is what's going on right now is the dispersion trade where the index volatility is not that high. But underlying, there's a lot of volatility individual names that tells me it's a stock pickers market. There's a lot of opportunity there if you pick right. But at the same time, you pick wrong, you're getting punished. And again, I think it goes back to that wanting to see the fall through through margins, wanting to see that operating margin expand. So you talked about earnings being a tailwind to the marketplace. What I think has got lost in large order has been the tax cuts and the corporate tax cuts.

17:25How much credence do you give as that's the overall tailwind to keeping this market afloat? Well, I think that's the right question to be asking, because right now we know we're in the sweet spot where this fiscal stimulus, sugar high is still going, but it's going to start to peter out here. Even with the consumer, I'm looking at things like tax refunds. That's great right now. It's offsetting some of the sting at the pump. But as we move into May, I think some of that goes away. So I think ultimately, like I've been saying, it's a selective market and you're going to want to focus on companies that actually have the fundamentals to follow through.

18:00So first of all, thanks for being here. How do you feel about the IWM, which has had some really significant outperformance, in a market that you would have thought maybe would have left it a little bit behind? It was interesting because that had been rallying back off to the races. It was kind of fits and starts, right, before the geopolitical risk that was leading the market, really telling me that the market was revising these growth estimates higher. Flash forward to where we are today, I was actually encouraged by what we saw today. I joked, all's right in the world. On the up days, the Nasdaq's leading.

18:29So I think we're seeing some recalibration. I think money's getting recalibrated to opportunity. Where's the risk reward profile? Where's that cheaper valuations? And what's providing maybe a little bit of growth tailwind? Because earnings are broadening out. If you look at kind of mag seven versus four ninety three or even what's happening, it's starting to to bubble up and, you know, broaden out. And I think that's healthy for the market overall. Andrew, not that you folks at Brentmore would would be doing this. And I'm not being sarcastic. I'm saying but there's there's a sense that with the S &P is only up like three and a half to four percent this year.

19:05It's maybe after today's close, it's closer to five. But it feels at this point after the last month that we're up six or seven or 12 percent. And there's clearly a lot of FOMO. Do you get the sense that the advisor community and the large institutional community that's representing pensions and endowments has been is concerned about having been offsides and been, you know, everyone, by the way, was very cynical. And I'm just kind of curious about positioning here because it feels like we've had a massive rally already this year, but the index is only up 4%. That's a great point. I think it's the right question to be asking.

19:38I mean, if you look at kind of this week in particular and the last several weeks, right, the snapback that we've seen, I think it's just that participants, investors not wanting to get caught off sides here, kind of buying into momentum. So I definitely don't want to fight that at this point in the cycle, especially with the earnings backdrop that we have next week. I think MAG7, let's see what they can do. Let's see if they can deliver. But as we move into the second half of the year, I completely agree that these geopolitical costs, not just on the energy side, like we're seeing diesel already come up.

20:11So that's going to feed through into the real economy, but also the supply chain constraints. What's happening there? So I think an interesting trade might be looking at areas of the market that were maybe tossed out. And again, being selective, you don't want to grab broad beta. But I think there might be opportunities, maybe things in like software where select names have been, you know, really discounted because of not wanting this, not wanting to own software in this environment. Andrew, great to see you. Thank you for coming by. Andrew Davis, Bryn Mawr Trust. Mike Coe, I'm curious, once upon a time, if the markets were up this much into a big week of earnings, you'd see some profit taking ahead of time.

20:50But not this not so this time. Yeah, I mean, well, you know, it's interesting. I mean, there's a couple of ways we could look at this. we could say, well, it's been up extremely sharply in a relatively short period. I'm not going to say it's unprecedented, but maybe there's only a handful of times in the century where we've seen the kind of rapid appreciation that the S &P has enjoyed over the course of the last, you know, call it 15 sessions or so. You know, it's up about five, including dividends, the S &P is up just over 5 % year to date. That works out to about 15 % plus annualized, right?

21:20That's a pretty good rate. So I think what we've been witnessing is that, you know, We had this idiosyncratic event. And one thing also that we have to focus on when we're thinking about rates is that if we're going to see some inflation, it's not like the Fed can fix that inflation if it's related to energy prices by jacking rates. In fact, then you have two things at once coming from two sides constricting the economy. So I can see how Fed policymakers are kind of caught in this case. So, you know, from my perspective, I think maybe look at some of the dividend payers because you have some cheap stocks in there.

21:56You also have some energy stocks in there. You kind of get an embedded barbell. And if you take a look at the Dow Jones 100 dividend index, that's actually up double digits so far this year. And that's actually a low beta play and it's trading at about a 10-year average multiple. So that might be a place that people could take a look to sort of balance out what's going on on the S &P and the high long duration growth side. Coming up with why Lily's pain is Novo's gain. The disappointing numbers from the GLP-1 leader that are giving its Danish rival a bump today. It's got the details next. Plus, Alibaba unleashing its QAn AI model on China's auto market.

22:32What the push could mean for top names stateside. Right after this, don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

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