Rates Rise Ahead of Bank Earnings… And Oil Prices Surge 7/13/26

21:12and nature. Tame your data chaos with EverPure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business. Visit everpuredata.com to learn more. It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can get this.

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22:07Melissa Lee:So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Eden's Plaza in Wilmette. Wayfair, every style, every home. Welcome back to Fast Money. SK Hynix says U.S. listed shares tumbling more than 9 % in their second day on the Nasdaq. They are now just$3 above where they price on Thursday. Cosby traded shares fell more than 15 % overnight. Their worst day on record. Memory chips selling off broadly today. Sandus dropping almost 13%. DRAM ETF. That was bad, too. Part of for specifically South Korea, Tim, I mean, there's like a lot of margin buying, leverage ETF action.

22:48Just the positioning in it was nuts. I think the positioning locally is nuts. And in fact, if you look at EM overalls and asset classes, year to date, foreign flows are down 100 billion dollars. So the local markets have been have been juiced by the local authorities. And you find this in a lot of places. You certainly have this in Japan as well. I think we have a dynamic here where that Hynex listing here was a bit of a sell the moment. I think there have been a lot of people over here looking for ways to get access to Hynex and never even knew how to spell or pronounce the company three months ago.

23:24I also think that the advent of Chinese memory names coming into the market and the fact that there are some of the bigger players that are not in the U.S. and they're in China. And we all know China is going hard for this. Peter Bookfar wrote something interesting about it this morning. The FT had a big... I mean, every other place in the world is talking about CMXD other than people in the U.S. So I think there's a Chinese influence here. And I think the local Korean market is over levered here.

23:50Melissa Lee:So you also have not just the, you know, percent that it makes up of the equity markets. You guys just mentioned there seems to be a bit of a frenzy as it relates to retail trading. And they're doing it with leverage and they're doing it with a whole host of other sort of instruments. I'll take it to Taiwan. I mean, Taiwan, 60 percent of their GDP is semiconductor manufacturing. Right. If you think about Taiwan semiconductor, it's also a huge part of whatever their stock market's called. You know what I mean? Like and so you say to yourself, it's not just as far as an investment bubble, which they clearly are.

24:21Melissa Lee:It's also these economies are very levered to that. So today's a great example where if you do have some sort of disruption in the markets over there, You know, it does have the potential to kind of work its way through here. And, you know, make no mistake about it. I mean, there is tons of options and levered ETFs and all that stuff going on here. Margin rates are as high as they've been in a very long time. So we have a lot of similar dynamics. We obviously have a lot more diversity, though, in our markets. We're definitely insulated somewhat from that without question. When you see four or five standard deviation events a couple times now over the last couple weeks in South Korea, it makes you sort of stop and say, hmm, something's going on.

24:57Melissa Lee:We went from 9 ,400, I think that was the all-time high, to 6 ,800, pretty much in a straight line. To me, 6 ,300, which was the prior all-time high back in February before we sold off, that seems somewhat inevitable. But the question is, does it make its way further into our markets here? Katie probably has some thoughts. Yeah, I mean, with that question, it's concerning on the charts. We have short-term support levels like the 50-day moving average in Korea being broken. The next support levels are often very well below 10 percent for SK Hynix in particular. And that's nothing based on what we've seen.

25:29It's already down nearly 40 percent off the high. So it is concerning. It reflects a loss of intermediate term momentum that we think could continue. The longer term impact that we feel like isn't quite clear yet. The monthly charts look kind of OK. These are very steep uptrends. They tend to resolve in dramatic fashion. And you had to believe that that IPO or the listing here was a sort of sell the news type of event potentially. There's a lot more Fast Money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

25:59Melissa Lee:A bullish call on Brazil. The signal Katie Stockton says investors shouldn't ignore. And the sectors she sees leading the South American market's next leg higher. Plus, taking a toll. The U.S. floating fees for safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz. inside the latest flare-up with Iran and where oil prices could go next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

26:31Your data lives everywhere. On-prem, in the cloud, across apps. Bring it all together with EverPure, the platform that acts like a living system, delivering the latest in data performance, security, and innovation without ever slowing you down. sophisticated enough to anticipate your ever-changing data needs yet simple enough to feel like second nature tame your data chaos with ever pure and make storage and data management the simplest part of your business visit everpuredata.com to learn more it's smart to always have a few

27:01Melissa Lee:financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day and with discover you can get this discover automatically matches all the cash back you've at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Hey, Chicagoland, the Wayfair store is in your neighborhood at Edens Plaza and Wilmette. Finally, you can feel the fabric, sit on the sectionals, and even open the refrigerators. Plus, our in-store designers will help you bring it all together with free one-on-one design support for any project on any budget.

27:41Melissa Lee:Yep, we said free. Oh, and did we mention the cafe? So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Edens Plaza in Wilmette. Wayfair, every style, every home. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Brazil ETF EWZ hit a post-pandemic high back in April, but it's been under pressure the last three months, down nearly 16 % from its peak. One of our traders says now is a good time to jump in. So, Katie, what do you see? Well, Q2 is really rough for Brazilian equities. We saw strong underperformance for EWZ versus the S &P 500. Now, however, we're seeing that sort of relative performance and also absolute performance improve notably.

28:24Short term momentum has turned to the upside. We saw some gaps up on Friday. And this is one potential beneficiary of the rally in crude oil prices. But it doesn't even seem to be only just about the rising commodities, but also just the broad-based rotation that Brazil is benefiting from. So we do see more upside for EWZ. It had come into very strong long-term support and still within the context of a long-term uptrend. And we found that pretty compelling. Beyond the sort of commodity complex, you can find strength in banks like the ETAO Bank. ITUB is a ticker here in the U.S. Petrobras we featured last week in our research.

29:04PBR is the ticker here. Both of those seem to be ready to advance from their corrective phases and contribute to EWZ. Good thing there's an emerging market specialist in the house. Well, and Katie crushed it on that Banco Itaú pronunciation. I mean, so I'm a long ITUB. I'm a long PBR and IDEVO. I like Brazil. Everything Katie said, obviously, it's defensive in this higher oil environment. Latin America sometimes might have a lot of issues on the currency side, but the BRL has actually been pretty resilient. I think they've made a massive fiscal adjustment in the last few years. There's some politics that could be a tailwind.

29:42PBR, on a trailing basis, has a monster, monster div. Never a reason to own, but remember, you're investing with the state. So they might want to pay themselves, and I think they're going to pay a big div.

29:53Melissa Lee:EWZ basically doubled from late 2024 to the recent highs. The move down has been a straight line lower, but I'm with Katie and Tim on this. I don't underestimate, I think, the importance of the sectors that are in this ETF, banks and energy and materials to a certain extent. So I think it's going to bounce. I also speak Portuguese extraordinarily well. Go for it. So give us a couple. How many phrases do you have? Like two? One thing. It's like a total of five words. One thing. That's insulting to people that do speak. No, I do speak very well. To the bane, to the bone. What did you just say? It's just like, how you doing?

30:27Melissa Lee:Everything's beautiful. It's all beautiful. It was a loss, by the way. They didn't make it. I hope so. I hope so. Crude Awakening as the U.S. reinstates its home moves blockade. Inside, the latest moves higher. What it means for prices at the pump when Fast Money returns. Missed a moment of fast? Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

31:00Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks. Lower to start the week. The Dow losing nearly 140 points. The S &P down less than a percent. And the Nasdaq leading the losses off by a percent and a half. SpaceX sinking another four percent today. The stock now within three percent of its IPO price of 135 a share. And Chimera Therapeutics dropping seven and a half percent after RBC downgraded the stock to sector perform while analysts are still positive in the company's atopic dermatitis drug trial. They cite valuation concerns following the stock's 150 percent gain in the past year. That CEO, remember, joined us here at the Nasdaq just last week.

31:36All right. Well, oil prices spiking today after President Trump reimposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settling more than nine percent higher, briefly crossing above$78 a barrel. Brent crude rose over$83, saw its biggest daily move since May of 2020. Joining us now for more, Denton Cinquegrana of Dow Jones Energy. He is a chief oil analyst. Denton, great to have you with us. It was quite a move higher on both Brent as well as WTI. Where do you think the new band is that traders should be thinking, investors should be thinking about oil in?

32:14Denton, can you hear us? I think we're having some difficulty with Denton, or he's just ignoring us. But I believe we're just having some difficulty with the connection there. So we will pause and try to get that worked out. But in the meantime, let's trade that big move higher because it was a big move higher. But you got to think with strikes resuming, we just heard from Megan Casella, that that band can move even higher from where we are right now. I think so. And I think I think traders are going to prepare like the the the fundamentals around where people were analyzing that this is higher for longer, even if it's not spike highs.

32:49So I think I look at oil services and it was interesting price action with a number of names, even so oil service firms like SLB. You kind of you got you traded well through that 50. As Katie says, there's often a big gap down to the 200. Well, they all tested it and they bounced. And I think it's an environment where there will be a fundamental reassessment. And I think today's move is one to be bought. I agree for energy stocks. We've seen a big oversold upturn, improve short term momentum support levels discovered for crude oil itself. the$68 to$67 per barrel area for WTI was really very important based on the cloud model, which for whatever reason holds very strong importance for commodities.

33:30So a very important support level was held. And now we have this momentum shift and a lot of room to the next resistance. The 50-day is up around$87 per barrel, and then the next resistance beyond that is$100. So I just suspect that we've seen a higher low here established. You can look at the individual names, Conoco for one. They really look compelling after having corrected for months. All right. Denton can now hear us. So we'll go back to Denton. Oh, great. Great to have you with us, Denton. Thank you for bearing with us there. I was just asking you before, how should we think about oil in terms of the higher, is there a higher band now where we should think about the oil price?

34:08Yeah.

34:09Melissa Lee:And apologize for that before losing the sound and everything. But yeah, no, No, I think if anything, there's more of a floor that's established here. And I think, you know, I don't think we're going straight up to$100 again. So inventories seem to be, you know, pretty doing OK. We're still releasing from the strategic reserves. So I think in the short term, yeah, we're probably going to see a lot of volatility, a lot of bouncing around of prices. But I think for now, a floor is certainly being set. But how much is left in our SPR? After all is said and done, a couple hundred, 300 or so million barrels.

34:45Melissa Lee:So, again, I think you can make an argument that at peak the SPR holds over 700 million barrels. You probably don't need that much in an environment where gasoline demand in general is declining in the United States. Gasoline demand is declining, but so are gas inventories. And, you know, we talked about crack spreads last week. They continue to sort of favor these refiners. We'll see how long that lasts. But right now, it's all systems go. Yeah, Guy, you're absolutely right. Gasoline inventory is dropping. And interestingly enough, the region of the country that has the lowest inventories, or at least the largest deficit to the seasonal norm, is the Gulf Coast.

35:23Melissa Lee:And that's a sign that we're exporting quite a bit of gasoline to the usual suspects, Latin America, South America. But some countries are coming to the United States for gasoline because of what's happened with the strait kind of being closed, open again, closed again. We'll see what happens. But again, the U.S. is a strong exporter of refined products. If you want to talk about energy independence, refined products is one where you certainly have a strong leg to stand on. So then give us a little bit more of the upside. I know you're not necessarily picking energy stocks. You're making a call on the sector.

35:58But but talk about why these companies and the sector, which has gone through a few almost, you know, faced the abyss many different times in terms of of where prices actually fell off for reasons around extra supply and alternative fuels. Why should we own these companies for reasons that are sector specific, but more bottom up? Yeah.

36:19Melissa Lee:So right now, as you mentioned, the grinding margins are really strong. Diesel is twice the price of WTI right now and has been for the past four or five days. Diesel inventories globally are tight. And in the United States, we've been tight on diesel for much of the last four years or so. But for now, this is not necessarily a crude availability story. This is more of a refined products availability story. And that's probably going to last at least for a couple months. Refiners don't really give second quarter earnings until the end of July, first couple of days of August. And I think they're going to be pretty spectacular.

36:51Melissa Lee:And granted, we're only a couple weeks into the third quarter. And already, they're quite strong, particularly for diesel. Seems like we're just like a hurricane away from another spike, though, in price here, Denton. Yeah, and it is hurricane season. Fortunately, with El Nino weather and wind shear, you know, they usually tear hurricanes up. But, you know, the one thing to remember is when you're watching hurricanes and as we're in hurricane season, you watch that swath of the United States from Corpus Christi, Texas to Pascagoula, Mississippi. Anything in there, particularly Houston to New Orleans, you're on high alert.

37:26Melissa Lee:But anywhere else, Florida, the Carolinas, up into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, any other place, it's a demand destroyer more so than a supply destroyer. Right. Denton, thanks. Good to see you, Denton Cinquegrana. Thank you. Coming up, a World Cup windfall, Major League Soccer looking to capitalize on the recent euphoria and its biggest ever marketing push. An inside look at the sports future with one pro athlete who's still young enough to live at home with his parents. That's when he's back in two.

37:57Welcome back to Fast Money, the semifinals for the 2026 FIFA World Cup kickoff tomorrow with France playing Spain. Argentina takes on England on Wednesday. Ratings for the World Cup have broken records here and around the world. With us, with USA's last match against Belgium, averaging over 33 million viewers, the most watched soccer telecast in U.S. history, according to Fox. Here to talk about what is next for soccer in America, the restart of the MLS season. And we're joined by 17-year-old pro soccer player, Audrey Mameti. He's a midfielder for the New York Red Bulls, a club he's been part of since he was six years old.

38:32How is that even possible? Is that correct? You've been part of this club since six years old. Yep. Because I have six-year-old twins, and when they play soccer, they just go, they chase the ball. Like, there's no rhyme or reason for it.

38:43Melissa Lee:I mean, I was doing the same thing when I was in the pre-academy show. Okay. So what does a World Cup mean for sort of reigniting interest in soccer in the U.S.? Yeah, I mean, especially being the host country, it's a big thing. And hopefully that has been played here. A lot of people that are from overseas, anywhere, they can continue to watch MLS and see how the league's developing with all the big players coming here and all the young players, you know, getting their chance to showcase themselves. At 17, are you approached for sponsorships and things like that? I mean, there I try to, I rely more on my parents and my club to do all that, you know, because I'm still young.

39:23Melissa Lee:And it's more a mature thing. So, you know, of course I'm mature, but I focus on the field and they do the rest. We have a young audience here on Fast Money. I'm sure you're familiar. What's your advice for people that want to be where you are? The 10-year-old kid that's watching, how can I get to that level? What's the discipline like to be who you are? I think everything comes down to how you treat your body off the field and on the field, of course. Trust the process, fall in love with the process, obviously, because everyone has a different pathway. And if you keep working hard, keep doing the right things, it all fall into place.

39:55Melissa Lee:Audrey, you're obviously working very hard in school and also in soccer. Do you spend any time looking at the markets? A lot of kids your age are really into it. They're into crypto. They're into, you know, prediction markets, that sort of thing. To be honest, no. I mean, I'm working. Obviously, like you said, I do school. Yeah. It's not my number one priority, of course. I wouldn't prefer to do it, but, you know, my mom and my dad, they keep me on top of it, so I have to do it. But other than that, no, not really. Audrey, what, you know, U.S. Belgium was a disappointment for this country. And not only did we expect to get past the round of 16 or we wanted to, what's holding U.S.

40:31soccer back on the field? Because you look at other sports in this country that were more nascent, call it five, ten years ago, whether it's lacrosse or whatever. I mean, U.S. hockey is another example of a stock of a sport that's gone mainstream that was not really our sport. What do we need to do here? Listen, I think the U.S.

40:49Melissa Lee:had a great tournament. Other than that last game, of course, it's disappointing. But looking at all the other games, all the positives, they played really well. They were very dominant in the group stages. And then going into the round of 32, I thought they played really well. And then against Belgium, a good opponent, of course, it's unlucky. And obviously, we all want us playing. I played for the youth, of course, U.S. and I wanted them to go far as well, but unfortunately it wasn't to be. And then, you know, soccer, again, is still developing here, and it's getting bigger and better every single day, and we're going in a good way.

41:22Do you ever stop and think that you could have more than 20 years to your career? I mean, Lionel Messi is, what, 39 years old? And he is at the peak of his career right now, and you're only 17. How do you think about that sort of future, and how do you plan that?

41:36Melissa Lee:I mean, I hope to have a very long career, Play for one of the biggest clubs one day. That's my goal and stuff. But, again, I try to take it day by day, step by step. And, again, like you said, to have a long career is any player's dream, any young player especially, dreaming to play in one of the biggest clubs in Champions League. So that's my goal for sure. Understanding you want to be the next you going forward in 20 years from now, people will be – who do you pattern your game after that people at home would know? I watched a lot of Sergio Busquets before he retired. I think we have similar play styles, and him being so calm, I try to implement that into my game, whatever he's doing with and without the ball.

42:14Melissa Lee:I try to take all of that and see what he's doing so I can make my game better. How much do you watch the World Cup? I watch all the games, I think. Every single game? Maybe missed a couple because of training, but I watch all the games. Because of training, not because of school. No, no, not school. I won't do school. I'll watch the game. Who are you rooting for at this point? Right now, I think France is going to win, but I want England. There you go. Why is that? Just, I like Jude Bellingham a lot. Yeah. Jude Bellingham a lot. I think he's a great player, a hard worker. He's done everything he's could for England right now, and I think he's carrying their team right now.

42:48Melissa Lee:So because of him and because of their club, you know, because of England, I want them to win. Amen. Go Britain. Audrey, great to meet you. Best of luck. Thank you, guys. I appreciate it. Thank you for having me. Coming up, Starbucks, quiet, grind higher. What's behind the coffee chain surge this year? what it signals about CEO Brian Nichols' turnaround push. More Fast Money in two.

43:12Welcome back to Fast Money. Starbucks rising over a percent to close at 52-week highs. The stock now 27 % higher this year and has quietly been outpacing restaurant rivals, including Dutch Bros and McDonald's, over that time. So is this a sign that the company's turnaround efforts under CEO Brian Nichols have taken effect? Guy, you pointed this one out.

43:31Melissa Lee:Yeah, and we talked about it last week when Tim was not here, but we said he's been talking about this for a while, and he's been correct to. Now, valuation is clearly concerning, but the turnaround's seemingly in place. I mean, very quietly, this stealth rally is getting us almost to past all-time highs, which is remarkable in an environment where not a lot of these stocks are trading that way. How does the chart look, Kay? You know, it's been range-bound for so long, but it's good to see the momentum improve from an intermediate-term perspective. There's room to resistance around 117 for Starbucks.

44:01So near term upside. And that will be a proof point for it. How do you feel? I like the story. I think this is slow and steady wins the race. I don't know that you need to chase this one. I'm long it. It's one that we have clients that like it. And I think it's a case where he is slowly turning around dynamics operationally. There's no question the brand is what it is. I think they have margin issues with with input costs. They're better. I don't think North America was a big turnaround in the last couple of quarters. And I think that's what you want to see.

44:31Melissa Lee:Pretty stark performance by McDonald's relative to, let's say, Starbucks, Chipotle and Shake Shack today. It literally is sitting at like 24 week lows. You know, that would be two years, guy. And I just don't you think you think that in this sort of environment, can we get a 40 year chart at McDonald's? I think that's the one that I think most the most sense here. No, it just acts really poorly. Well, that demographic probably feels the pain of higher prices at the pump much more acutely than a Starbucks demographic, I would argue. Amazing how quickly it went from an all-time high to a 52-week low.

45:03Melissa Lee:I mean, Katie can speak to this as well. You typically don't see that. I don't think valuation is ridiculous, and I'm surprised at how poorly it trades. But, Mel, I think you bring up the exact right point. It's a hard one to get excited about. I mean, the momentum loss is pretty severe, and you're getting breakdowns from a short-term perspective. So I would wait for the long term oversold condition that has returned to lead to improved momentum. I feel McDonald's could be in line for a little boomerang if we continue to see oil prices go. And I mean, to the downside. I think higher oil prices, higher gas prices, I think higher inflation, possibly higher rates.

45:38This is what McDonald's is struggling with. They can weather this better than a lot of their peers and they can push other people around with discount. But I don't think you need to chase this one either. I love McDonald's.

45:48Melissa Lee:You know who's not eating McDonald's? My man, Audrey, ain't eating that stuff. Oh, no way. Nah, he's got a cheap egg. Looking good. Up next, final trades.

46:09Final trade time. Tim? Cut your bros. Katie brought it up. I think it's an interesting stock. They have growth. They have a valuation argument, and they have a nice dip. Katie? I'll go with ConocoPhillips, ticker COP, just to take advantage of the oversold banks. Dan?

46:24Melissa Lee:Yeah, I think you sell rallies in Bitcoin. I'm doing it through the IBIT ETF that tracks it. Guy. We should all go to Red Bulls game together. That would be fun. Except for you don't go anywhere. But sure, let's go. We did energy, energy, and a triple for you Joker's Wild fans out there. So I'll see you at DVN, Melms. All right. Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

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47:39Melissa Lee:On any budget. Yep, lease that free. Oh, and did we mention the cafe? So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Edens Plaza and Wilmette. Wayfair, every style, every home.