Stocks Retreat From Records… And Bitcoin’s Fresh Record 7/11/25

0:02Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here is what's on tap tonight. Markets pulling back from records, but with a big week of earnings and inflation data on deck, how should you set up for the weekend? The traders lay out their playbooks and a Bitcoin bonanza, the crypto breaking new ground this week, but can rally keep rolling on. We'll talk to one insider to find out. Plus, hi-ho silver, the precious metal outperforming gold this year. How much more upside is there? Oil and oil stocks jumping today. Is the long struggling group really turning a corner?

0:37And we're counting down to Netflix results. What to expect from the streamer when it releases earnings next week? I'm Courtney Reagan in this evening for Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, we have Tim Seymour, Bono and Eisen, Mike Coe and Julie Beal. But we will start with the markets taking a breather from their record-setting rally. The S &P dipping into the red for the week after President Trump announced a 35 percent tariff on Canada and threatened higher levies across the board. The index, as well as the Nasdaq, had set all time highs, though, just yesterday.

1:09Still, big tech were some of the biggest leaders since Monday. You've got AMD, Palantir, Intel powering the gains and, of course, NVIDIA solidifying its hold on that four trillion dollar club. It's a lot of zeros. The chip giant adding another$20 billion to its market cap today, further extending its lead over Microsoft in the number two spot. NVIDIA nearly doubling from its lows of the year. But with this week in the books, we turn to a slew of new market catalysts on deck. We're going to get earnings from big banks, airlines. We did get Delta already, consumer staples, streamers, and more. All of this on the calendar and fresh reads on inflation and growth with CPI, PPI, jobless claims and consumer sentiment also out next week.

1:52So will next week give markets more reasons to rally or have stocks hit a wall? Tim, I know we took a bit of a breather today, but all time highs. We were breathless before this. We were out of breath. We need a little break. Right. But it doesn't feel like a record setting time. I mean, look at all these cross currents, geopolitical tensions, slower growth. We're still dealing with stubbornly high inflation. We're slapping tariffs on everybody. Can we continue to push through the tension? Well, there's no question that if we've got a couple options, guys, here that know a lot more about volatility than I do.

2:26But if you look at at least the absolute measures of volatility out there, it's kind of shocking to have been sub 16 on the VIX going into yesterday with what's going on politically, what's going on with tariffs, what's going on around the world. And also what we're seeing from gold and what we're seeing from Bitcoin. Those those aren't happening in a vacuum. Those are happening as a function of. And that's why there's so many cross currents this week, including, look, we had two great Treasury auctions. Actually, the Treasury should be really happy. I believe they're talking about even a surplus coming in from tariffs and whatnot.

2:55But again, long end currency, excuse me, long end of the bond curve had some some great auctions this week. I think if you think about earnings for next week, I believe investors are going to continue to pay up for growth. Now, in the banking space, it's not as if you're talking about tech stocks. But I do think there are places where you actually will see more versus less growth next week. But but ultimately, again, I think the leadership we've seen from semis is interesting. Another theme this week was semis outperforming software. That was a trade that was probably 150 basis points to the favor of semis again today.

3:26So investors are evaluating the places they have confidence in their growth and the places they're probably overpaying for it. Bonham, what do you make of where we could be looking next week? We do have a lot of banks reporting financials, though, the worst group of the day, albeit, though, just down 1%. I mean, I think it's a net positive for all the things, as you've said. Since we've had all these macroeconomic headwinds, there have been some recent tailwinds, a reversal of what were formerly headwinds. And I think you'll get some quantitative data next week that actually support whether or not you can continue to kind of march higher.

3:56So I think rather than it being more of a speculative on or risk off situation driven by macro, driven by the Fed, I think you actually get to see whether or not corporate earnings are supportive of the heightened multiples that we find ourselves back in. The last point I'll make is you mentioned it doesn't really feel like we're at an all time high. But I think that there's two things. You have two juxtaposing factors. You have the fact that we're only up, what is it, 6 percent or so year to date. But if you look at our April lows, that rally has really felt like a really a risk on a reach, reshoring of capital, reshoring of of manufacturing.

4:31And those tailwinds that have kind of led people into some of the into some of the U.S. domestic stocks as well as international. But I think it's those two things that kind of pose a bit different thesis or a bit different narrative around how you feel about the market reaching its all time highs. That's a good point. I mean, Michael, when we do think about the April lows and where we are from now, my goodness, the market just sort of says tariffs. Yeah, bring them on. Right. I mean, maybe maybe it is the taco trade. I don't know. But thinking about where we were on April 3rd versus where we are now, should we be here and can we keep going higher?

5:02So the move that we saw, I think, is probably one of the most pronounced over a period of that time, you know, basically since Tim and I have been in the business. So I think on both hands we could probably count the amount of times that we've seen 20 percent rallies in such a short period. You know, one of the things I would certainly say is we've had better than expected inflation data on the last few prints. PPI is going to be interesting next week because PPI is going to lead really the core inflation. And so it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out. But so far, so good. The only thing that gives me a little bit of pause is if you're going to look at, you know, price is truth, I kind of would have expected financials to do a little bit better today if people were anticipating a good PPI print next week.

5:42Because then you would be anticipating some steepening of the yield curve that's typically going to be good for financials. On the other side, though, the moves that we're seeing out of names like NVIDIA, those are long duration trades. Typically, these are the growth names, as Bono was pointing out. You know, you're going to start seeing people bid for this as long as we get decent growth numbers. And as far as this, you know, the balance, the fiscal balance, I thought that was kind of interesting, but it's not huge, of course. You know, we're talking about a$60 billion swing. We were looking for what, I think a$30 billion deficit.

6:10We got a$30 billion surplus in the context of a$7.5 trillion budget. Is that so huge? But it is trending in the right way. In financial services, we tend to like to look at trends, right, in the early stages. Is it moving in the right direction? That's moving in the right direction. If we can keep inflation under control, we see revenues a little bit better than expected. That's good on balance. You seem a little doubtful, Tim. Well, no, I was just going to have something. Mom says if you have nothing nice to say, don't you? I'll just leave it at that. And I think with banks, they've had such a great run.

6:42It's hard to really feel as if even a small pullback is indicative of anything more than that. I think what we will get from banks is some sense that their core business, their sales and trading business, I think we're all kind of waiting to hear a little bit about what's going on in M &A and the investment banking world because it's part of what I think we've been seeing more broadly in themes within this market. I think you've got a case with copper prices and what's going on with oil. There's some interesting stuff going on in the commodity markets, which at some point is PPI heavy and not great.

7:10In the short run, I think it's been great for copper miners and even oil names that are oversold. Yeah, energy was good today and obviously crude, the commodity itself, higher. Most of the commodities higher, except for copper, I think, down just a touch. But, Julie, what do you make of sort of where we are in the broader market, what you hope to hear next week out of potentially CPI, PPI, even the banks. We all listen a lot when Jamie Dimon talks. What are you looking for as a potential catalyst to make some moves? Well, I think Jamie Dimon was actually talking today about the complacency that he sees in the market, and that is something that I'm really paying a lot of attention to.

7:39When I think about higher beta, cyclical stocks that really seem to be outperforming, it really does feel like a performance chase for people who got a little bit left behind earlier in the year. And that makes me a little bit worried because then it's not really supported by the fundamentals. So for sure, I'm looking a lot at what Jamie Dimon and the banks are going to say about the credit quality and any of the loan loss reserves that they're having to take. We're already hearing a little bit at the margin that the weaker companies are starting to move their loans into payment in kind, which is not great.

8:10That's not a great sign. And we already have 30 % of student loans officially delinquent. So the credit quality is something that we've all kind of taken being pretty good. But I'm worried that under the hood, there are some cracks starting to form. Bonwan, I want to ask you about NVIDIA and obviously coming back into this$4 trillion mark. It's impressive to say, does it mean anything? Does it sort of spark new momentum going forward? It's scary to say, right, if I'm being frank,$4 trillion. I mean, particularly considering you look at the other MAG7 names, like this is head and shoulders above.

8:47I try to put that in context, though. So I think in the old guard, I would say$4 trillion. Perhaps you're looking to take profits here just because of the run-up and the overall valuation. But I think when you put it under the lens of, listen, AI is opening up and unlocking a completely different market. I think when you put it under that lens, I think it's slightly less intimidating. I think under the hood, though, the move that we've seen is indicative on AI once again kind of leading us to new highs. And to the other, you know, my other panelists, brothers, BFFs. Let's do brothers. I'd rather be a brother than a panelist.

9:25I like that too. So much better. With the name Tim. It's okay. To their point, you know, this AI reinvestment is really what's led us higher. And if you talk about what you're willing to pay for at already stretched valuations, you want to make sure there's a growthy aspect there if across the board you're already paying a premium multiple. Yeah. Big week for NVIDIA. Also, Jensen Wong, of course, going to the White House wearing his signature jacket. Someone said, hey, I think that suggests he's more comfortable. It's kind of warm to be wearing leather this time of year. It is, isn't it? You know, but I guess some people are into that.

9:59If you're Jensen. A little swarmy. But, you know, if you're Jensen Wong, you do what you want. You do you, man. Well, the White House threatening more tariffs today. Speaking of the White House, CNBC's Megan Costelli does have the latest for us. Megan, what's going on? Hey, Courtney. So multiple moving pieces here as ever, right? The first threat today, a higher 35 percent tariff on all imports from Canada, which is our second largest trading partner. That's up from the 25 percent tariff level in place now. But you can see here all the different tariffs Canada is now facing. I'm told the exemptions for USMCA compliant goods and the lower energy tariff are likely to remain in place.

10:36But I'm also told no decisions on this have yet been finalized. The president also, separately, the second threat, told NBC he's considering increasing the universal baseline tariff from 10 percent to as high as 20 percent. And that would be a major escalation here, although, of course, one that's not yet set in stone. Then separately, we also got new Treasury data out today, and that showed us a steep rise in revenue coming in from tariffs. It was about$27 billion collected in customs duties last month. But interestingly, corporate tax revenue is falling at the same time, and Treasury says that's due to firms anticipating more favorable provisions in the president's mega bill that just passed.

11:17So while tariff revenue was up$20 billion last month versus the same month a year ago, corporate taxes were down$14 billion. So we'll have to watch that trend to see how things level out. And then finally, one more thing here. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee told The Wall Street Journal in a new interview that all of these latest tariff threats could spark fresh concerns about inflation. And he says that, in turn, could force the Fed to stay on hold rather than cut rates the way the president wants. So an instance here of the president's threat sort of backfiring on a different part of his agenda.

11:50Courtney? Megan, thank you very much. Thanks for joining us with the latest. Hopefully the president gives you a little bit of a break. It's Friday, after all. Well, let's bring in Peter Bookbar. Appreciate Megan joining us. He is the chief investment officer of Weekly Financial Group. He's also a CMBC contributor. Peter, thanks for joining us. Megan brought up a number of good points. I guess the first one I'd love to ask you about is Austin Goolsbee's concerns about what's going on with tariffs and if an increase in tariffs will also potentially lead to new inflation. We get PPI and CPI out next week.

12:19Are you concerned about that at all? Or do you think we sort of quelled this beast somehow, some way for now? We have not quelled this beast. Also of importance next week is import prices, because import prices are sort of the first touch of those tariffs. In April, import prices, ex-food and energy, rose five-tenths month over month. In May, it rose another four-tenths. So that's actually the number that I'm specifically watching for. The key with inflation right now is Inflation is here with tariffs. It's just a question of who eats it. Those companies that have pricing power means that consumers are going to eat it.

12:57Those companies that do not have pricing power means that companies are going to eat it via a cut in their profit margin. And we saw that clearly with what Conagra and Helena Troy said yesterday. Helena Troy said this summer they are raising consumer prices 7 % to 10%. Now, whether it sticks or not, we'll have to see. but they're going to try to. On the other hand, Canagra has much less pricing power, and they said their costs between commodity and labor inflation, in addition to steel and aluminum in terms of their packaging, their costs are going up 7 percent. So the inflation's here. It's just a question of where it is along the supply chain.

13:37And who can handle it? I mean, we also heard from Levi yesterday, and they basically said, look, we can mitigate almost to all of this. I think they only plan for maybe a two to three percent increase. And they said if they raise prices, it will only be on some select items. So then doesn't that sort of start to separate the winners from the losers? Maybe it's not a one paintbrush sort of paints everyone the same color. Exactly. It's the pricing power aspect that will determine whether one's margins suffer or whether the consumer's pocketbook suffers. But Levi's that's able to absorb it. Well, there's somebody else in the supply chain that can't and that Levi's is pushing back against.

14:16So someone is still eating that tariff along the Levi's supply chain. But because of their presence in apparel, they're able to push it off onto somebody else. Hey, Peter. And it was it was a fascinating week because, of course, when we get the Vietnam tariffs, we you know, we had a conversation around here and with with a top ranked analyst who said, you know what? I don't love the number, but it's actually a relief. It's a relief because actually and we also have the ability to model out and some of that. But you spend a lot of time focused on commodities. You spend on global macro that often dictates, I think, your investment themes on picking stocks and bottom up.

14:51Is copper meaningless? Because I think for people that aren't focused on this, it could just be a lot of noise listening to LME squeezes and things that are going on with shipments. But copper prices have such a major input component. And that's independent even before we talked about tariff squeeze. Are you worried about that? And again, if we look at commodities and we look at what's going on with base metals and industrial metals, prices are going higher. Exactly. And just to quantify that, because I just checked, as of today's close, the CRB Raw Industrials Index rose to match its level last seen in March of this year, which was the highest level since January 2023.

15:30And it's not just copper. Silver, as you had on the screen before, highest level since 2011. Platinum is up about 30 percent over the past couple of months. So there is a global rise in industrial metals. And I can't argue that there's this big spurt of demand. It's people trying to get their hands on this metal, these metals ahead of potential tariffs and understanding that these critical minerals are very important in now a growing multipolar world where everyone tries to get their hands on this. wants to have their own stash of it. But unfortunately, whether it's demand or not, it's still higher prices that's going to flow through the inflation stats.

16:09Again, whether it's eaten by the consumer or not, it's still going to flow through the supply chain. And to Goolsbee's comment, yeah, he wants to see how this plays out, as do other members on the Fed. Peter, thank you very much for joining us. Peter Vokvar of Weekly Financial Group. You are, of course, chief investment advisor and also CBC contributor. Julie, what do you make of Peter's comments. He seems a little bit more worried about inflation than some others. I'm absolutely with him. And I think the biggest problem that we have is that many companies were really thoughtful about their inventory and they waited until the right time to bring it in.

16:44And so they're sitting on a fair amount of inventory that they don't necessarily need to price higher. But like we saw with Prime Day, many companies decided not to really participate that much in Prime Day because that inventory that isn't tariffed is pretty valuable to them. So I actually worry that for now, PCE is not going to be that meaningful. It's much further on before we're really going to know that tariffs have hit us. I think it's going to be a much slower burn, a little bit like the frog dumped into the boiling water. Lovely. Oh, yeah. That sounds tasty. Mike, you know, I was thinking about CPI earlier today, and it felt like before everyone had the CPI date sort of pinned on their calendar and the market was almost hanging on that.

17:26We're past that, at least, are we not? No, I think we are. You know, like I said before, I think PPI is more meaningful. It's a forward look basically on what CPI would be and also core PCE, which is actually going to be the Fed's preferred measure. One of the things we have certainly seen from sellers is that even if they were going to have tariffs imposed, they were willing to suspend price increases for a little bit of time because they thought that there might be some negotiation going on on the back end. And so I think Julie's point is a very good one, which is that there is an impact. We don't really know when it's going to hit because everybody's sort of playing this game about am I going to impose, you know, higher prices because I have higher costs or am I going to kind of wait it out a little bit?

18:07And we don't really know because the tariffs themselves were delayed so many times. So it's a little chicken egg thing going on right now. Tim, before we wrap this up, what do you think will be the biggest driver between now and August 1st if that's the deadline that stays? I think the China deals are important and it's been kind of it's almost been taken as a given that the China deal does get done. I think we I believe equities have taken the view that the Fed's posture is more dovish since this last meeting and that they were more tolerant of higher inflation. Everything we're having an inflation fear conversation.

18:40So once again, I think the Fed is critical. I think the headlines are critical. Remember, we're going into an earnings season where companies didn't need to tell you anything. Are we going to let them do that again? I'm not sure. Fair enough. That's right. We sort of were OK if they didn't give guidance or suspended guidance. And now we want a little bit more than that. Well, coming up, Levi's buttoning up a big day of gains thanks to a monster earnings beat and upped guidance. More on that gene giants move ahead. Plus, silver going for gold in the metals trade. What's behind the recent surge and where it goes from here?

19:12That's up next.

19:17You're watching Fast Money here on CNBC. We'll be right back.

19:31Welcome back to Fast Money. Levi Strauss surging 11 % to a 52-week high today. The move coming on the back of better-than-expected sales and profit numbers for the latest quarter. The denim giant also raising full-year guidance, saying it's confident in earnings growth even as it absorbs the cost of tariffs to avoid raising prices. She tried to say higher by 11 % had quite a day. And meantime, Amazon wrapping up its Prime Day sales event today. Still going on. A couple hours left. The event expanded from two days to four this year, with one early report at least suggesting first-day sales were down more than 40 percent from 2024.

20:06Still, Morgan Stanley today raised its price target on the stock,$300 from$250, stating more manageable tariffs could lead to growth for the retailer. That's about 33 percent upside from here. And, yeah, definitely mixed reports on what we're getting from the Amazon Prime Day. It's still underway, so a little hard to say. But it looks like people are buying essentials from what I could see from what those best. Well, I think that's right. And I like Amazon both because I think I'm getting that e-commerce business for free and because I think some of the trends and the comps are actually pretty low.

20:37But you buy it for the AWS. Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think you do. And I think AWS is going to be all we really care about mostly. But I think the Levi's numbers were the ones that were the most surprising to me. I have to tell you that there have been times over the last couple of years where I've scratched my head on the valuation on this one. And they first of all, the organic growth in the Americas that they saw was well beyond what the street expected. They essentially doubled what the top line of the street had expected, which was extraordinary. And you can see by the reaction.

21:06It was a stock that had corrected significantly after having an incredible run out of that IPO whenever that was. And, you know, I know Mike wears Gene on Gene a lot. So, you know, jean jacket, jean shirt, jeans, the whole thing. That's right. You know, he's not even a Canadian. Pull off the Canadian tuxedo. He could do it, though. Let's be careful. No, I know it. I love it. Who doesn't? Cowboy Carter. Just bring back acid wash. But actually, in all seriousness, Levi did sort of get a nice little boost from the Beyonce songs. And then Beyonce became officially sort of a part of the company's marketing campaigns.

21:41But when I've spoken with the CEO, she said, look, it doesn't hurt when you get Beyonce making a song called Levi. We're in the Levi's on tour. And so I think they're also riding this cultural moment. But, Mike, what I'm wondering about Levi versus maybe some other retailers is, do you want going forward to own a brand or the retailer that aggregates and sells the brand, like a Target, a Walmart, an Amazon, that all basically sell a version of Levi? So, I mean, with respect to Levi, the thing that I like to see here is that their top, this is what Tim was just talking about, but their top line revenue growth actually was better than GDP.