Trump Tariffs Reinstated… And Retail Earnings Filter In 5/29/25

0:03Live from the Nasdaq market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast The price hikes and the uncertainty over jobs the consumer is still spending. The CEO of Tanger will be here to take us inside the numbers. Plus, we're all over results out of Dell and Marvel technology. Boeing gets a bounce as 737 Max production starts ramping up. And a latte issues for Starbucks. Oh, boy. That was a quote. What has one Wall Street firm downgrading the coffee chain? I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami.

0:49We start off with the latest turn in President Trump's tariff policy, a federal appeals court temporarily pausing a lower court decision that struck down the levies last night, allowing them to go back into effect for now. Megan Casella has all the latest in this back and forth. Megan. Hey, Melissa, a huge back and forth on the trade front today, starting with that ruling overnight, of course, from the Court of International Trade, saying the president did not have the authority to impose most of the tariffs we've seen so far. But the latest, as you just laid out, is that the Court of Appeals for the federal circuit did side with the administration, granting their request for an emergency stay at least temporarily.

1:24So the court said that until June 5th, they're giving the plaintiffs some time to respond here. So a week from today. In the meantime, that means all tariffs that were in question here can remain in place. The administration had argued they would have to have this sort of stay, this sort of immediate relief. Otherwise, it would undercut ongoing trade negotiations and ongoing geopolitical conversations as well. The plaintiffs are already out, counsel for the plaintiffs, I should say, already out with a statement saying they view this as merely a procedural step and that they are confident that the federal circuit will ultimately deny the government's motion.

1:58That would mean that tariffs then are on pause if the court then does not move forward with the longer term stay. Now, the White House, this is a win for them, at least temporarily, but they're also seeming unbowed here. They are very much clear eyed about the fact that they have other options if this one does not move forward. Take a listen here to Peter Navarro, the trade advisor, talking with reporters just in the last hour or so. The court told us, they didn't all but tell us, they told us, go do it another way. So you can assume that even if we lose, we will do it another way. Melissa, I'll leave you with this.

2:36We know that there are still seven ongoing Section 232 trade negotiations on things like copper, lumber, semiconductors and critical minerals. all of those can lead to widespread tariffs. And there are a number of other statutes the administration is looking at as well. So this is certainly not the end of the road on the tariffs front, even if ultimately the court does rule against the administration. Megan, as you mentioned, there are a lot of other routes the administration can take, Section 122, Section 301, Section 338. This all takes time, though. What happens to all the deadlines set in place for negotiations?

3:09For now, they're holding in place. The The administration has been adamant all day today that they say they've been hearing from foreign countries that trade negotiations continue to be ongoing. So they say for now the timeline holds with all of its various deadlines as it already was. But you are right that it takes time. Things like Section 122, I would look at that as potentially the first next step if they have to do it. There are limits with that. They can only be up to 15 percent tariffs, can only last for 150 days. But they're more about the trade deficit. the court even said they thought that was applicable here.

3:42So I would expect that's the first place the administration looks if they want to move quickly, if these AIPA tariffs, the ones now in question, don't ultimately move forward. 15 % though really changes the dynamics in terms of who has an upper hand. Yes. And that's a huge point to make. I think the biggest thing here is while yes, there is still so much uncertainty and countries really might still be likely to come to the table because they want that certainty, they still want to strike a deal. We're in a different place if we're no longer looking at 145 percent China tariffs, for example. 15 percent in the near term would be quite a different world.

4:18That doesn't mean we don't ultimately get higher. Things like Section 301 were used in the first term to impose pretty hefty tariffs against China, although not quite to the level we've been talking about recently. So they could still get there, but it means it's a longer timeline. It also, though, means there's a lot of uncertainty and potentially a patchwork of tariffs in the medium term. Megan, thank you. Megan Casella joining us from the White House. It almost seems worse in terms of the uncertainty over companies and their ability to make decisions in the markets to digest what this means for forecasts.

4:51I think that's right. I was surprised the market sort of hung in there as well as it did. At one point last night, the S &P futures up, I think, over 80 handles and some of it on NVIDIA. Absolutely. Most of it on the back of that court ruling. And then at one point we went negative today, seemingly discounting what we're just talking about. Closed up on the day. So maybe it's just an NVIDIA day. But to your point, I think what this just does is adds another level of uncertainty to an already uncertain environment. Yeah. And, you know, the one thing I just say is like the reaction to that taco trade thing.

5:20It kind of probably emboldens him a little bit. Right. So you have this back and forth between the market kind of calling you out on some narrative. And, you know, listen, the narrative didn't need an acronym. This is something that a lot of market participants were talking about. The timing of the rollbacks right after the threat was something like take it to the bank. Didn't they happen like a handful of times on like Sunday nights and this sort of thing? And so they were really focused on the stock market. But when this president is challenged like that, he usually kind of doubles down, at least if we're looking at the playbook from the first administration.

5:48And like so this is something that I think is going to stay pretty volatile. If you have the courts going back and forth and you have him and his administration, we just heard Navarro, they're going to find ways to get around it one way or another. And I think to your point about corporates, you know, we keep hearing this. We saw Best Buy today. We've seen some other retailers talk about this. They're not taking big whacks at their guidance, but they're signaling to some degree that this is going to continue until they have more clarity. So I always think about the market hates uncertainty above all else, even above bad news, bad news with some certainty around it.

6:18I think the market can digest, maybe reevaluate and then move forward. This, as you're saying, this level of uncertainty to me seems ratcheted up materially, at least for the next, I don't know, a couple of weeks or longer. So I was sort of surprised, I guess, to your point, you know, NVIDIA, for sure, that's helpful. But because what do you do? Why are all negotiations? Are they going to continue right now? What would you do if you're the EU? Right. Do you wait and see? Let's just see how it goes. Worst case scenario. You do section 122, get 15 percent for five months or however long at 150 days.

6:52How bad is that? I mean, it changes the dynamics completely in terms of the need to come to a deal, I would say. I just thought today was such a strange day. You know, we have a negative GDP print on top of that. We had a great seven year auction in the one place where we're kind of concerned. We reinstated the delayed tariffs. I mean, like the whole thing is so wild. And yet markets, it's almost as if markets don't seem to care about tariffs. In fact, you know, Guy says this all the time. I totally agree with him. Market cares a lot more about the debt market. And but we walked into today with markets that had rallied back from Independence Day.

7:23We we had the we had the tariffs, you know, pulled back. We had a court ruling. We've had a forestallment of that. I mean, like it's it's it. I mean, ultimately, again, the market has told you we don't care so much about tariffs. But of course, then we had a handful of GDP of data prints today, including GDP, where really, look, the trade data in the GDP number was worse than expected. We have initial initial claims, which are a leading indicator for unemployment, which were higher again this week. You had pending home sales of existing homes that are their worst number in two and a half years.

7:59So so, no, the markets are saying I don't care about tariffs. And today was kind of that weird day where tariffs don't exist anymore, but maybe they might. But the market's back to where it was. But the data, the sentiment, the dynamics. And I think this is what you're all talking about in terms of uncertainty, tell you that there has been an impact. And we'll see where we go. And the data. I mean, I would I would think that it would be even more cloudy. in that with this window, it enables companies to bring in inventory right now in this small window where tariffs are sort of, you know, in question.

8:31No one knows what they are. Personal consumption also was a big miss today. But, I mean, maybe that was if you think it was going on during April, that was a very – So it's dismissed sort of. Kind of, I guess. I mean, there was a volatile time with sentiment really taking a hit. Yeah, I'll just say this on the earnings front. You know, we're getting obviously late in the season or earnings season, you get a lot of these retailers. And so that, you know, commentary is a lot different than when we started earning season with the banks, you know. And it seemed like we came out of that week or so where a lot of these banks weren't talking about a weak consumer.

9:00And, you know, then we got into the meat of some of these other, you know, in tech. I think generally they were better than most people expected. And a lot of that had to do with this sentiment. When you have this sort of volatility that we had in almost every risk asset, you know, in April, you kind of get a little bit, I don't know what you call it, but like you're off sides a little bit. And then when you start hearing things where expectations are not that high, you end up feeling a lot better. I think we're on a little bit of a high where we just didn't have enough guidance to make people feel like that we're going into a very rocky period until we get to some of these deadlines, whether it's the 90 days after China and the like.

9:32So, again, I think that sets up for disappointment now. It's like back then we were discounting some worst case scenarios. Now we're just discounting the fate. And Tim says this all the time. The pain trade feels higher. But sometimes when that's the feeling, you don't often get it that way. Or maybe Nvidia was the example of the company that despite all odds, despite being really handcuffed when it came to doing business in China, it still performed. It found the revenue someplace else and it beat the street. And maybe that is the tale that a lot of other investors are hoping they can impute on other companies as we go through this trade.

10:05No doubt. We talked about it last night. I mean, the quarter was to me, it was especially in the form of the margins. We talked about that. It was very good for them. But it's not unlike what we saw back in January when we had a great quarter. The stock made an all-time high back then. Technically, it broke down the next day, and then it really never looked back over the ensuing months. So today's price action wasn't nearly as bad as what we saw a few months ago, but I don't think it was particularly great either. I mean, we opened around the highs. We closed around the lows. It's something to watch over the next couple of trading sessions.

10:32Yeah, and so as you talked about, you guys did a great job last night, as you do, talking about the AVIDIA numbers. I mean, AI demand, there's no question. There's no letup. So back to your market comment, Mel. I mean, I look at semiconductors leading the S &P today, as they should have after that. Not by a lot. But but market leadership right now, if you need the market to go higher, is OK. And it's OK. And it's the triple Q's. It's the Nasdaq, which is leading the S &P. And again, these aren't runaway numbers. And there are plenty of folks out there. And Carter says this all the time. And he's right that the Nasdaq hasn't made a relative high against the S &P since all the way back to last July.

11:08Having said that, it's really gotten off the mat and it's right up against some resistance levels that could see it. I mean, that chart from from February to now on a relative basis to the S &P looks pretty good. All right. Well, for more on the mood in China surrounding tariffs and trade, let's turn to CNBC senior correspondent Eunice Yun, who is in Beijing. Eunice, great to have you with us at this early hour in Beijing time. What is the mood there? Because it does seem to be a lot of highs and lows when it comes to the relationship between President Trump and President Xi. Yeah, I think that there's a lot of concern here that the trade truce might not hold, because each side has been taking steps that really seem to be threatening the possibility of having a greater trade negotiation and for these issues to be resolved.

11:55For example, on the U.S. side, the Trump administration, at least there are several reports now, is moving on restricting chip design software sales to China and pausing exports for Chinese planemaker Comac. And then on top of that, it announced plans to what they described as aggressively revoking visas for Chinese students. And that move prompted a very angry response here, as you can imagine, by the Chinese. On the Chinese side, though, they aren't cooperating either. They have yet to remove the export controls for rare earths, which was something that was dictated in the Geneva statement. Today, they called them international common practice.

12:32They are also threatening legal action against those who enforce the U.S.'s new chip curbs. They called those bullying. And then also they lodged a protest about the U.S.'s plans to pull student visas. That was seen as a step that is right in the negotiating playbook of Beijing to kind of throw in a lot of different unrelated issues to the matter at hand, so in this case trade, in order to gain leverage themselves in those larger negotiations. And then on top of that, of course, is something that you guys were talking about, and that is the U.S. court rulings and what that means for President Trump's authority to be able to have that leverage of the tariffs.

13:15So all points to a whole lot more uncertainty. Guys? Eunice, a few weeks back, I believe you were talking about the reaction of social media of the Chinese people to President Trump in the United States. And I'm wondering if that is as strong as ever, and if Chinese consumers are themselves deciding not to patronize U.S. brands. There is some of that. And definitely on social media, you do see the Beijing narrative. Of course, this is a censored media environment. So you do see this Beijing narrative that China has to stand up, really playing with the public. There have been several nicknames of President Trump as a comrade nation builder, of course, the nation being China.

13:56There have also been several memes online of Americans kind of hunching over iPhone assembly lines. So there's a lot of that discussion going on. But I think that at the end of the day, one of the big problems is that the economy is quite weak. People are worried about these trade issues and the tariffs. They're concerned generally because they see the property here, the financial issues that people are having, the bad job market. All of that is something that's kind of playing into the sentiment here and the concerns about what all of this means for the economy. Does that make you think the government, they're more willing to take extreme action in terms of retaliation against U.S.

14:43companies? I mean, so far, the responses that you outlined are very polite responses that are acceptable sort of in the realms of just normal diplomacy. But there are ways, you know, they can detain executives. They can inspect factories at will. They can shut down factories for inspections. All sorts of these softer ways that they can sort of exert their influence and control. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we've already seen some of that, at least on a minor level, where they were going after individual companies. It hasn't happened yet in a broader sense, but it's something that's there. And I think that, you know, there's also been a lot of discussion here as to whether or not the Chinese would take the first step and maybe retaliate with other tariffs.

15:26But actually, that's not as harmful, even though it is harmful to the economy, it's not really as harmful, like, more broadly. So you could see that the Chinese, if they were to choose to retaliate, would do something that would be less harmful for their economy. And that could include going after individual companies, American companies, in a bigger way. All right. Eunice, great to see you. Thank you so much, Eunice Yun, joining us live from Beijing. Tremendous. Eunice is one of a kind. I'm going to win an award. In terms of the China trade, in the dynamics now, I mean, things are a little different.

16:01I mean, I read something, and again, this is just anecdotal, but will President Trump decide to delist Chinese? I don't even know if they have the power to do that, but that's being thrown out there. So what does it mean to the stocks that we talk about all the time, the Alibaba's? I don't think it's going to happen, but it's out there. What does it mean to names like Apple, who have clearly had a bullseye on their back now for years, seemingly impervious to it, but now it's seemingly having some impact? So I do think this is something we should talk about more. Yeah. And in light of what we saw yesterday and again, the pushback towards this kind of retrenchment from the threats, I mean, you know, the question is leverage.

16:33Right. And at the end of the day, I don't think we have a ton of leverage. You know, I think the Chinese and this is to your question to Eunice, like might they sit back? They're already trying to stimulate the consumer. Right. And stimulate consumption over there. They've been trying to stimulate their economy for a while. We know that it's weak. But the idea that they're going to actually make some big broad stroke sort of deal in the next. What do we have, 60 days or something like that is not particularly likely. And so, you know, at the end of the day, for them to kind of kind of wait it out and see what happens, you know, the courts and all this other stuff.

17:03And, you know, if they do start targeting our individual companies, I think, you know, what they've done with NVIDIA or at least what Trump has done with NVIDIA and what he's done with Apple and possibly Tesla. Now that Elon's leaving the government, who knows? I mean, those are pressure points, you know, their pressure points within their economy because they also employ a lot of people. But their pressure points over here for some of the biggest companies in our country. And I just don't think we have as much leverage, at least as the administration is projecting. If you ask those four companies off the record how they feel about policy on China, I mean, they're not they're not going to be thrilled, even though pushing back on China is is a bipartisan issue in this country.

17:38And, yes, it is time to make that market more fair. By the way, delisting Alibaba is only going to hurt U.S. investors. OK, let's just be clear. This is one of the most liquid stocks in Hong Kong. The stock is going to trade just fine. It's going to freeze up people that own it in ETFs and people that own it in their retail trading accounts. So I also just think that, you know, being because the other side of this is getting indignant that China is stimulating their economy by supporting manufacturing. I mean, there's been a lot of rhetoric that over the last week that that's something that that is, you know, doesn't isn't isn't good being a good trade partner.

18:09When, in fact, this is what China does. That's what the U.S. does. I mean, I mean, we support manufacturing. That is a manufacturing economy. We're bringing manufacturing jobs here. We're trying to protect U.S. steel to protect manufacturing jobs. Right. We're trying to create tax incentives that allow for incentives and, you know, depreciating them more quickly. And yeah, but they do. I mean, China does have this government situation where they don't really need to care exactly what the people think. Well, and they're focused on consumption. Right. So they have a 40 percent savings rate over there.

18:39We have a 4 percent savings rate here. Right. So we are consumers. Right. And so when Secretary Besant says or Treasury Secretary Besant says, you know, the American dream is not flat screen TVs. Well, it is. I mean, like, that's what we want, and that's what we buy, and they just don't do that. Now, they pile it into a bunch of crappy real estate that's going to zero, but that's also part of this whole thing, too. But the idea that we can force them to increase consumption and take more of our exports. They're trying to force their own consumption, though. They really are. That's what I mean.

19:05No, I know. I mean, but my point is it's like it's not likely to change. It's not likely to change in 90 days. It's not likely to change in probably 90 years. We're talking about decades of bad demographics, too. I mean, it's not easily reversed, and that's a policy issue. Coming up, a lot of earnings action to bring you Dell, Marvell, Costco, and more reporting results tonight. The details from those quarters ahead, plus Boeing's big day, the CEO weighing in on Max production and China delivery is the comments he made that investors flying high don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back in tune.

19:33This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC.

19:50Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert on Dell. Shares off their after-hours highs after a mixed quarter. The company did, though, give a better-than-expected revenue outlook. CNBC's Christina Parts Nevelis is here with the details. Christina. Call still going on. The guide really puts them in sharp contrast to competitors like HP Inc., which recently cut its guidance, recently being yesterday. The real story here, though, is Dell's AI servers. Dell is projecting a massive$7 billion in AI server shipments this quarter, ahead of their own expectation, and they say clears nearly half of their$14 billion year-to-date backlog.

20:19They're riding the wave of demand from major players like Elon Musk's XAI and CoreWeave, who need these high-powered servers for their data centers. But here's where it gets a little bit interesting. Despite the bullish quarter outlook for Q2, Dell is keeping their full-year revenue guidance unchanged. That seems conservative, given in the momentum, but management says the PC refresh cycle is still lagging behind historical patterns, and the consumer market remains tough. They're only expecting low to mid-single-digit growth in their client business. The AI server business also is unpredictable by nature.

20:52These are complex scheduled deliveries that depend on customer building out data centers with specialized cooling infrastructure. It's just, it's difficult to build. Lastly, they did say guidance includes everything they know about tariffs. So I just found that discrepancy a little interesting. I reached out to Dell, asked them about that, and that was literally the question they got twice, at least twice on the call. So just to be clear, the quarter that they just reported, they came in a little bit ahead on revenue, correct? And so they're keeping revenue guide. So basically for the rest of the year it's going to be lower than expected.

21:21So the Q2 guide much higher. So for a total they're shipping over nine billion dollars and they're expecting 15 billion for the year which really just leaves about three billion in the subsequent Q3, Q4, right? So you're really seeing this uptick in shipments. On the call, it was asked, who are you shipping to? Is it CoreWeave, which is the assumption? And they said they wouldn't talk about customers at all and give details about that. But that would be the assumption. They also said, too, they did see a little bit of demand pull forward for, you know, the fear of the tariffs. This is a relief for you.

21:54Yes, it is. After HP. Right. Yeah. After HP. I mean, even though it's a slightly bigger part of their revenue. It is a much smaller margin business that HPQ like, you know, the client versus the infrastructure, which is much more important, much bigger margins, but still a little miss on the margins. I think, though, that I'm not so put off by that guidance. I never understand this, particularly in an environment like this. Why do you need to go out on a limb at all for guidance? So the demand is still there unless it was just pulled forward. But I believe that it will be. I think video is telling us it's there.