Can Talarico Turn Texas Blue?

0:00Every day, animals across the country face abuse and neglect. and every day the ASPCA shows up to rescue animals in crisis but they can't do it alone visit ASPCA.org slash need become a donor today to provide the care and shelter these animals urgently need and for a limited time the ASPCA will send you a free gift as a special thank you visit ASPCA.org slash need are you ever shopping online and suddenly a discount that helps you save pops up? It makes your day, sometimes even your week. Want that feeling month after month? Well, new customers who save by switching their home and auto insurance to Progressive save hundreds.

0:47Cue your happy dance. Get your quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers not available in all states.

1:00Can James Tallarico defy political history and end a Democratic Senate drought older than he is? I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:17There are 20 days until the election and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. Tonight, the Democrat trying to flip deep red Texas blue and help his party take back the Senate will face voters directly. You're looking at live pictures of the stage where James Tallarico will field questions from voters at the CNN Jubilee Town Hall, moderated by Aaron Burnett. Two new polls out today show just how competitive this race is. Marist and University of Texas both find no clear leader between Tallarico and President Trump's handpicked GOP candidate, Ken Paxton.

2:00When it comes to independence, Tallarico has a big advantage, leading Paxton by 22 points. I want to get straight to Roanoke, Texas, outside of Fort Worth. Jeff, I know you've been talking to voters all across the state. What are you hearing? Well, Dana, there is a sense of hope and optimism among Democratic voters, unlike we have seen, and we actually have seen it, but it's not quite the same flavor. When you talk to Democrats here about why they think this could be the year to finally elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate from Texas, they point to two things. They point to the weakness in their view of the Republican challenger, Ken Paxton, who has a long list of controversies, of course.

2:44And they also point to just the economy and the hunger for change. So Democrats, though, are not the most important sect of voters in this Texas race. Independents, as you mentioned, certainly are key to this coalition, but Republicans are as well. And talking to so many voters and strategists here in recent days, it is likely the number of Republicans who decide to join the Tallarico campaign and vote for him that could make a difference here. We had a conversation with many of them, but a couple of these are very instructive. Glenn Whitley is a former Republican Tarrant County judge in Fort Worth.

3:20He is supporting Tallarico, but he makes clear that not all Republicans are ready to take that leap. Is there some reluctance for lifelong Republicans to vote for a Democrat? There is, and especially as you move into East Texas or into West Texas, they just, you know, to vote for a Democrat is a really long step. And that's what I think keeps, I've heard a lot of people say they're just going to stay at home or they're not going to vote in that particular race. President Trump has come down to Texas several times in the last few weeks, urging people to vote for Ken Paxton. When you see that, is that persuasive at all to you?

3:56No. If anything, it persuades me to go the opposite direction even more. And that was lifelong Republican Pete Nodecker from Fort Worth. And he voted for Trump twice. He is done with Trump. He is infuriated by the Republican Party because of the attacks on the Capitol back on January 6, 2021. But he said that he believes that when President Trump comes here to campaign, it does not motivate other Republican voters. So, Dana, the reason that we're talking about these Republican voters is a question hanging over this race is how many of them decide to vote for Tallarico or how many of them decide to perhaps leave the Senate race blank on their ballot.

4:40That could help determine the outcome on Election Day. Yeah, I mean, it really is. It's a question of lots of questions. but one of them that you were pointing out is a question of enthusiasm or just disgust. Let's quickly talk about tonight's town hall with James Tallarico, because it's going to be different from what we've seen before. It absolutely is. It's going to be fascinating to watch because James Tallarico is going to be face-to-face with Republican voters, Democratic voters, and independent voters. Our colleague Aaron Burnett will be on stage asking and guiding these questions. But, Tana, a very different part of tonight's town hall is a segment called Change My Mind.

5:19James Tallarico is going to be sitting directly across from Undecided and other voters, just a few feet across from them, and engaging in a dialogue and trying to persuade those voters. So we'll be able to see in real time if it works or not. And Undecided voters are such a key part of this electorate here. It's one of the reasons that Republicans are spending so much money in Texas trying to remind voters of some of the liberal positions that James Tallarico has, trying to present him as unacceptable. But again, watching his answers tonight, I think, will be so instructive in this Texas race, which is at the cornerstone of the Republicans' quest to try and hold on to their Senate majority.

5:59Yeah, people who aren't familiar with Jubilee and the way they do things, that is kind of a key part of how they present themselves in their interviews, which is the change my mind. It'll be really cool to see that tonight, along with Aaron and everybody else. Thank you so much, Jeff. Appreciate that. I have some terrific reporters here at the table with me. Aaron Blake, I'm going to start with you and just put up another number. You saw the top lines that it's no clear leader on these two new polls. But in the Marist poll, one of the things that really struck us is the question of whether or not these voters strongly support their candidate.

6:37James Tallarico has 84 percent. Very sticky. Ken Paxton, 64 percent. I mean, that's not nothing. That's pretty good. But it kind of goes to show how the people who are already in for Tallarico are in, and the Paxton support is certainly not as intense. Yeah, I'm glad you focused on that number because that was really the contrast that stood out to me from this poll. It's actually the first poll that I've seen in a little while, and it's a likely voter poll, so it's a little bit different from what we've seen before. That showed Tallarico underwater in his personal image. 49 % disliked him, 43 % liked him.

7:15But Paxton was 22 points underwater on that question. He really hasn't improved his reputation since that very difficult primary with Cornyn. There was some thought on the right that maybe he was just that unpopular because Cornyn dropped all this money on him and he was going to get better over time. We haven't seen that. His voters are still very lukewarm on him. He might get over the line because it's Texas and it's a very close race. But if he does get over the line, it's going to be because of those voters who don't feel strongly about him. And, Jamie, that's really key. It's not as if voters in Texas don't know who he is.

7:49He's been on the stage for a long time. And a lot of the headlines that he's gotten over the years have not been positive. I mean, they've been scandalous, including and especially the bitter fight with his now ex-wife, who is also in Republican politics. But even just recently, here are some headlines. Ken Paxton partied in Dubai with fugitives ahead of high stakes Senate race. That's the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post. Ken Paxton took campaign funds from donors with interest before his office. So I think what we're seeing here is something that actually a Democrat said to me. They are hopeful about Texas.

8:33They sort of say it in a whisper because they're afraid it's like Lucy and Charlie Brown and the football again, that at the last minute they're going to lose. And what the strategist said to me was it's not predictable. But then went on to say exactly what you said about enthusiasm and those numbers we saw. You know, is that enthusiasm gap enough to make hope, you know, come to be? or, you know, on the other hand, I just think we should talk about independence here again for a minute, which Jeff Zeleny raised. Are they going to come out and vote for Tallarico? Will they just stay home? These are the things that this is why it's a toss up.

9:19We won't we don't know yet. Yeah. Mariana. And also, I would say back to Paxton and just like all of these headlines that you've noted have just happening over time. I mean, it gives the Democrats, especially Tallarico, go an argument on corruption, right? Because we've seen this in polling too, Democrats, Republicans, independents, on the corruption issue. That is one that is resonating so much among voters. And you could easily just say, and Democrats are saying, that all of the things that Paxton has done leads to something corrupt while he has been in office. Whether that is a strong enough of an argument, I mean, we'll see, we're in this place of like, Right.

10:00And does it move voters or not? And then one of the counter arguments that we are hearing from Republicans is a little bit offbeat, but pretty consistent. And the vice president of the United States gave an example last night.

10:18Now, before we get started, I love you too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Calarico. You got to wonder what the Internet search history of a man like that looks like. Ladies and gentlemen, you don't want to find out. Neither do I. This is this has been kind of the narrative that they've been pushing for a while, that he's beta. He's not married. He's raising questions that are unsubstantiated on this, certainly on the sexuality. and I would argue maybe irrelevant, but this is a state in which you heard from that former judge talking to Jeb Zeleny.

11:02The DNA for the last several decades has been so GOP that if you hear even something that could raise alarm bells in your mind from somebody like the vice president of the United States, you're thinking about voting for Tallarico, maybe you won't. Yeah, and we've seen the president and his allies call James Tallarico a vegan, even though he's not a vegan. Such a sick burn. Yeah. There was an ad from a pro-Paxton super PAC that had James Tallarico kind of a cutout in a dress. It's very unsubtle what they're trying to do here. The thing I thought about when I saw that, though, is there are a lot of very powerful gay people who serve in the Trump administration, in the White House.

11:46Like the Treasury Secretary. The Treasury Secretary, for one. And I do wonder, you know, this is not subtle what they're doing here. They are trying to turn this into a negative. And you have to wonder how some of those people feel about that. Can I just add, it's pretty pathetic if on October 14th, that's the best thing you have going for you. And I would just add to that millions of people are voting now. They're sending in ballots. They're early voting in some states. There doesn't seem to be an October surprise. You just woke up the surprise. In the universe shape. Actually, it is what it is.

12:27If there's a surprise, then it's just it's it's more news that we cover. You know, maybe, maybe not. Coming up, here's something that may not be a surprise to you at home. Prices are rising. Paychecks can't keep up. The last inflation report before the midterms is delivering a brutal reality for Republicans and President Trump. Plus, can Democrats hold the governor's mansion in one of the swingiest states in America? I'll speak with the candidate trying to do just that this hour.

13:02Are you ever shopping online and suddenly a discount that helps you save pops up? It makes your day, sometimes even your week. Want that feeling month after month? Well, new customers who save by switching their home and auto insurance to Progressive save hundreds. Cue your happy dance. Get your quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers. Not available in all states.

13:29Now for a quick message from Anthropic, the team behind Claude, the AI built for businesses. Customers count on their bank, and banks count on their most important systems. Now those systems count on Claude, and nine of the Fortune 10 companies use it for critical work. See why leading companies trust Claude at claude.ai.

13:54That war is going to end very soon, and when it does here, prices are going to come tumbling down. They already are. We have economic success like nobody thought possible. That was President Trump campaigning last night in Alaska, promising that prices are already falling. But today's final inflation report before the midterms delivered a different verdict. Americans are paying more. Inflation is going up, not down. 3.7 % in September, the highest since May. And it's not just gasoline, which is driving that. It's plane tickets, car tune-ups, power bills, and more. This is a number, Mariana, that is kind of a red flashing light, but it's not news to any Republican on the ballot because they're hearing it in real terms with real live voters on how their lives are right now.

14:54You're right. It's not new at all. And frankly, I was talking to a couple of Republican strategists today in light of this. And especially when you talk to those who have been covering a number of House races, they're like, this is already more or less baked in. You're seeing Republicans actually pulling money from states where or districts where they were believed that they were more competitive in to try and shore up Republicans in safe seats because they genuinely did not think that it would become such a tough environment for them. And I mean, as much money as even MAGA Inc. has tried to pour in, a number of people that I've talked to have just not seen those races tighten in the way that they even expected, simply because again, voters already know what's happening in the economy.

15:39They already know, and let's just illustrate what they know and what they're feeling. We're gonna use the numbers to sort of help hit it home. So we're gonna show you wages versus inflation, okay? How much people are making versus how much things cost. So this is January 2025, when President Trump was inaugurated again. Red is what you make, and the orange is what it costs. What you make is more than what it costs. This is where we are now. What you make is lower than what it costs. It's as simple and sad as that. Yeah, and I think a big part of this, too, is that, you know, the Trump people like to always point to the fact that inflation actually was higher during the Biden administration.

16:23It actually went above 7 percent. Look at the same point in that election cycle, the 2022 cycle. Inflation was over 7 percent heading into that election. The differences are that people knew that that had something to do with COVID. They didn't totally blame the Biden administration on it. Versus now they have these things that they can point to the Trump administration on, the tariffs and the Iran war specifically. And the other thing is that chart that you pointed out. The inflation is not significantly higher than when Trump took office, but it is no longer keeping pace with wage gains. And so that's where it really hurts people.

16:57All right, everybody stand by. Up next, the great GOP distancing act. From one debate stage to another, battleground Republicans tried to move away from President Trump on some issues dominating the midterms.

17:46There were three Senate debates last night in three key races in Maine, Georgia, and Iowa. The Iran War was a major topic in all of them. Here's how two of the Republicans on stage, Susan Collins in Maine and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, navigated questions about an end to the war. Mrs. Hinson, would you switch your vote today on the War Powers Act in order to end the conflict in Iran? Yes or no? 30 seconds. I don't think we need another resolution on the House floor. I think the president and the U.S. military can bring it to the end. I voted with the Democrats to bring the war to an end, but there were not sufficient votes for that to happen.

18:29In addition, I agree that the president did not have a good plan. He should have anticipated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Jamie, those two answers are so telling because you have—these are two GOP seats. One's open and one is obviously incumbent Susan Collins, desperate to hold on to them and trying to find a way to push back on the Iran war and do it so that you still have the Trump base, which still exists with you, but nodding to the people who aren't happy about the ramifications of this war, you want to come your way. But Susan Collins was so different. It's interesting. So she said three words that she didn't have to say.

19:19She said she voted with the Democrats. She wanted that out there. And that's me. Look, the Republicans don't want the war. They don't want these gas and diesel prices. But the reality is what you see there is the difference between this balancing act of how far they're willing to go. Susan Collins in Maine is going to go further. A Republican strategist said to me last night that the other problem that we're seeing, and this is a little bit different from the war, is, you know, do you want Trump to come vote for you? And this strategy said in races he's looking at that his candidates don't want Trump to come because they're afraid it will motivate Democrats to turn out.

20:11It's a very tough balancing act for these Republicans. Speaking of balancing acts, Josh Turek, who you saw on the stage there, the Democrat running against Republican Ashley Hinson, he's trying to turn. He's a Democrat trying to turn a red state blue. and his answer on immigration was really telling. What about those who are here illegally, but they have not committed a criminal offense? Should there be a pathway to citizenship for them? You have 60 seconds. Not a pathway to citizenship for them. And we need to have an earned pathway to citizenship for those that have come here legally. Now, I would say that I agree with Representative Nunn, with Representative Miller-Meeks, and Representative Feenstra that we should pass the Dignity Act, which provides work permits to individuals in that situation.

21:02Except for the pathway to citizenship for others who are not criminals, the rest of that answer was putting himself squarely in the lane of Republicans in Iowa. Yeah, very interesting response. I think if you would have asked a couple years ago if a Democratic Senate candidate in a major race would come out against the pathway to citizenship, That's a pretty stunning development because the pathway to citizenship is actually still pretty popular. It's pretty broadly popular as part of a comprehensive immigration reform agenda. But we are seeing candidates like Turek in Alaska, like the candidates in Alaska, Ohio, Texas.

21:36They are taking these kind of more moderate to conservative positions on some of these very culturally sensitive issues. And I think that's a very telling example of that. And another issue that hasn't gotten as many headlines recently, but is definitely one on the campaign trail, especially Maine, is ICE, and also a version of immigration, the president's policies. Let's watch how that played out in Maine last night. I believe that ICE needs reform. And I have proposed and got enacted into law significant reforms for ICE, but more needs to be done. And Senator Collins, the chair of appropriations, voted to give$70 billion to ICE without the reforms that Mainers deserved.

22:22Weeks later, blood was spilled in the streets of Biddeford. Look, Senator Collins paid for the bullets at Donald Trump's command. Now she wants credit for not pulling the trigger. And they're speaking about a nice shooting in Maine last year. Yeah, no, it's interesting to see how both ICE and also immigration broadly as a whole. It's going to be an issue that is going to go on beyond this election. And I think when it comes to Maine, and when we're talking about Republicans who have distanced themselves from Trump, the one consistent thing I've heard is that someone like Collins has a brand of not being close to MAGA or Trump, not being completely tied.

23:00And as much as Democrats have tried to land their argument, it doesn't always stick. In other words, she might have a better chance of keeping her seat than Ashley Hinson, who does have a voting record of constantly voting with the Republican Party and backing Trump, and that is the difficulty that even Mike Collins in Georgia faces, right? Speaking of Mike Collins in Georgia, this is a race that has, you know, fallen off the competitive map, and it's because John Ossoff is doing quite well, the incumbent Democrat. So one of the questions we want to play here that he got in that debate last night was about 2028.

23:36Will you pledge right now tonight to serve your full six-year term if you win. Yes, I will. I have zero interest in running for president. I'm not running for president. I'm running for re-election to the Senate. You've heard versions of that answer for many years in many different ways, Jamie. Parse that one. That, to me, was a hell of a lot stronger than never say never. I mean, he said yes, that he would take the pledge. I do think it's interesting. If you saw the Georgia debate last night and you watched the main debate with Troy Jackson, some of these candidates have to be thankful for their opponents.

24:16They're just not as good candidates. When we saw Susan Collins there, Troy Jackson is sort of reading his answers, looking up and down. Very reads differently than Susan Collins just speaking directly to the camera. All right, don't go anywhere. Coming up, Michigan is a swing state that hasn't elected consecutive Democratic governors in more than 60 years. Well, Jocelyn Benson wants to change that. She'll be here next.

25:04Progressive is here to help when you can't. So get peace of mind knowing your loved ones are protected with Progressive's Accident Response. Learn more at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Limited availability in California. Driver is responsible for emergency and towing charges not covered by the policy. Coverage subject to policy terms and conditions. This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way, because there's hope in hard questions.

25:40Ask yours at claude.ai slash Spotify and keep thinking. That's claude.ai slash Spotify.

25:52Michigan is the center of the political universe in pretty much every presidential election. And this year, it's once again drawing the eyes of the entire nation. in one of the most crucial Senate races of the midterm cycle. But the state's governor's race could also make history. Michigan Democrat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is taking on GOP Congressman John James to succeed term-limited Governor Gretchen Whitmer. If James wins, he would be the state's first black governor. If Benson wins, it would be the first time in more than 60 years Michigan elected consecutive Democratic governors.

26:29Secretary Benson joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. You well know that President Trump won Michigan twice in the last 10 years, two years ago. He won by 80 ,000 votes, and he did it in large part by making inroads with independents. About a third of voters in your state call themselves independents, at least did in 2024. What do you say to voters who may have supported President Trump two years ago and now are trying to figure out who to vote for for governor? Yeah, well, thanks for having me. And look, in 2024, Donald Trump made a lot of promises to the people of Michigan, promises to lower costs, promises to make life more affordable.

27:08And then he's failed to deliver on those promises. And not only that, here we are in 2026, and we're seeing not just failure to deliver, but also costs going up on just about everything. If it's a reckless war in Iran, it is causing our gas prices to increase. The reckless tariffs with Canada that he and my opponent John James both support those have driven up costs on Michiganders and Michigan households more than any other state in the nation and people of Michigan are feeling that we have we see our prices go up at the gas pump at the grocery store everywhere else our electricity bills and people are looking for leaders who will actually deliver results I've done that a secretary of state of reforming our office to actually save people time and money and And that track record, that results-oriented record, is ultimately what people are looking for in elections like this.

27:58You mentioned your opponent for Governor John James. I spoke with him last week. Here's one of the things he said to me. The Democrat Party in Michigan is not the party of our parents. The Jewish attorney general in the state of Michigan didn't even attend her own Democrat convention because she feared for her own personal safety. That is what's happening in the Democrat Party in the state of Michigan. And Abdul El-Sayed is the leader of that type of extremism that's catching hold. Now, he is running against you and not Abdul El-Sayed. But what do you make of those comments about your party in Michigan?

28:35Yeah, our party is the party of the Voting Rights Act. We are the party of the Civil Rights Act, the party of Medicaid, Medicare, the party that does big transformational things and actually drives down costs for the people. And my opponent, when he went to Washington, he did not fight for people. He fought for the highest bidder and did whatever Donald Trump asked, raising costs on all of us, voting three times to increase health care costs on the people of Michigan, supporting tariffs that have taxed Michiganders more than any other state, and voting six times to support a war in Iran that have directly impacted gas prices in Michigan.

29:07So what people are looking for in Michigan right now and what Democrats are unified around delivering are lowering costs, increasing wages, growing our economy, and frankly, ending the type of corruption at the federal level that has got us here. I talk a lot about how government's kind of at the federal level showing up everywhere we don't want it and nowhere where we actually need it. But here in Michigan, Democrats are united around showing up for people, actually delivering results, lowering costs, increasing wages, and making life better for everyone. I was just, I mentioned to you, I was just on the ground there in Michigan last week.

29:37It's very clear you are doing much better in the polls in your race than El-Sayed is in his race for Senate. What do you say to voters who are all in for you but not sure about him? Well, again, I look at results. Who's actually going to build the team, the coalition, to get things done for the people of Michigan? And if you look at Democrats up and down the ticket, including our state house, our state senate candidates, our congressional candidates, our ticket is full of Democrats who are focused on getting things done and getting things done that people really want. more money in your pockets, more money in our wages, costs going down on health care, housing, electricity, child care.

30:16And so we're all talking about those ways in which we're going to make sure government works better for the people of Michigan. And I encourage all voters to look at the records of the leaders who are running and knowing that my record speaks for itself. I've worked as Secretary of State to not just make life more affordable, but also take on a president of the United States who shown through his corrupt and cruel policies that he doesn't care about us. He doesn't care about making our lives better. Democrats do, and that's what we're fighting for. So the question was about the Senate race, which obviously could tip the balance of power here in Washington.

30:51You talked about the whole ticket, but didn't specifically talk about Abdul El-Sayed. Yeah, I mean, Democrats across Michigan, we've got a lot of shared goals, and we know we need to work together to accomplish them. And so that's what you're seeing. I will work with anyone who is committed to actually driving down costs and improving people's lives here in Michigan. And I've made that clear throughout our campaign. And we've built a true coalition, a diverse coalition of leaders on this ticket that represent those same values. I'm focused on making sure here in Michigan we are committing and delivering that message to all voters, that we're working together to drive down costs and that we all understand what's at stake for working families.

31:30And we share a commitment to making life more affordable and expanding opportunities for everyone, whether you're running for U.S. Senate, for Congress, for state House, for state Senate, for governor. We're committed to those to that work, to making life more affordable and expanding opportunities for all. And I'm proud to continue to put that message before voters in these last three weeks heading to Election Day. If you mentioned tariffs, if you are elected governor, you don't have the ability to determine federal tariffs on goods, But you will have to deal with the impact on Michiganders. Michigan does about$80 billion in trade a year with Canada.

32:06You don't have the best relationship with President Trump, which, you know, is understandable, given the fact that you're on the other side of the aisle. Would you be able to work with him to try to lower the trade war's burden on Michiganders? Yeah, I mean, my job as governor will be to fight for and represent the people of Michigan on all sides in every county. That's what I've done as Secretary of State. I'll always stand up to anyone who tries to interfere with our rights, our freedoms, abuse their authority, as we've seen on the federal level, to dampen our ability to hold elected officials accountable.

32:39But I also know that growing our economy, increasing access to well-paying jobs is critical to ensuring everyone in Michigan can thrive. And I will work with the president and anyone else who is committed to those same goals. However, the president has to recognize that the tariffs he's imposed in this war with Canada has hurt Michiganders more than any other state. Households are paying$6 ,400 more as a result of these tariffs. So as governor, I'll also work to negotiate agreements with Canada, subnational agreements that can carve out exceptions to these tariff wars to help protect Michiganders.

33:12And I hope the president would support that work. Michigan Secretary of State and candidate for governor, Jocelyn Benson, thank you so much for being here. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me and folks can go to Jocelyn Benson dot com to get involved and help us out. Okay, thank you. And up next, Carolina Blue kickoff. Will it kick off? The Blue Wave on election night. John King went to the Tar Heel State and talked with voters. There are going to be people out there who think I'm just totally crazy, but no, I don't think it's going to affect the way we live and the way that we work.

33:53Life is all about making decisions. Sometimes you make questionable ones, like buying a new TV that's too big for the wall because the electronics store employee was a little too good at their job. Then sometimes you make great ones, like protecting your home and auto with Progressive. You get customized coverage options so you can be sure you have the right coverage. Get your quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers. Not available in all states. On election night, North Carolina will be one of the first tests of a Democratic blue wave.

34:30Both parties have pulled some ad money out of the state as Republicans lose hope the battleground Senate race could actually flip. But how real is the Democratic momentum? John King went to North Carolina. Up before the sun, a crisp fall morning wrapped in a thick blanket of fog. Robert Russell breaks the silence. A wake-up call in Appalachia. We'll be in business here in a couple of minutes. It takes a bit, but then remarkable precision. The goats emerge from the hillside, wander down, and line up. They come at their pace, right? That's pretty much it. So they wake up and the first thing they want to do is eat.

35:16Milking comes first on Russell's long list of daily chores. Oh, sorry. Busy, but patient with a novice. Yeah, she says new guy. There we go. Okay, now you're good. All right. Pigs to feed, chickens to check on, and yes, baby goats to break up the chores with some morning joy. 50 acres, days that run 19 hours, a small farm barely breaking even. Yeah, from the outside, that's a life that you would never want to live. But, I mean, I can tell you that in 10 years, I've never had a single moment when I've regretted taking this step. Leicester is western North Carolina, the Blue Ridge Mountains, rugged, rural, Republican.

36:03Yet this fall, full of these, perhaps another wake-up call. Roy Cooper is the Democrat now favored to flip a Republican Senate seat. Jamie Yeager, a farmer and a Democrat, hoping to flip a deep red House seat. Russell is an independent, tired of rising prices, tired of broken promises. I'm not particularly happy. You know, I think that a lot of stuff that was implied or promised has kind of been backtracked, walked back. And that's, you know, that's frustrating. Like what? No wars. That's a big one. Inclined to vote for change, but not sure yet. Not sure because he doubts even giant change in Washington will help him.

36:51The government is not interested and is not set up to help small farmers. I don't have any hope that there's going to be any possible change in Washington that's going to affect and benefit me. That's a recurring theme of our travels here and in many rural communities where people feel forgotten. Abby Norton is the mayor of Tiny Hot Springs, population 600. Not a politician, she insists. not one who believes replacing Republicans with Democrats in Congress will change much. There are going to be people out there who think I'm just totally crazy, but no, I don't think it's going to affect the way we live and the way that we work.

37:32This is Marshall, about 15 miles upriver from Hot Springs. The floodwaters here rose 27 feet. Ready to start the adventure? I'm ready. I am ready. I am excited. It's a beautiful day. Corey Hampton's outdoor adventure business offers rafting, rappelling, zip lining, and bike tours through the spectacular countryside. The floodwaters changed the path of the French Broad River. Homes alongside it are still being rebuilt. It was not a good summer. It's hard to know how much of that is still storm-related and how much of that is because people aren't sure if they should spend money to go out to eat or to go on a family vacation.

38:11AMNA NAWAZ, President of the United States, Hampton and good friend Josh Kopris are Democrats. They know they're outnumbered here. Trump won 61 percent of the vote in Madison County. But both believe eight months of a war the president said would be over in weeks is changing minds here. A direct impact of the war is that fuel costs more. And I don't have a way around using fuel. I live and run a business in a rural town that's 30, 45 minutes from where my guests are. and my locations where we go on outdoor adventures are 45 an hour plus out into the remote wilderness. This isn't the only North Carolina House race critical to the balance of power in Washington.

38:55A second is 400 miles east along North Carolina's Atlantic coast. It's a big late campaign question because the president's poll numbers are simply so bad. Are Democrats going to have a good midterm election night or is there a big blue wave brewing? Well, where I'm standing right now will be a big part of the answer. This is North Carolina's first congressional district. Democrat Don Davis is the incumbent. Back in 2024, Congressman Davis narrowly won re-election. But at the same time, President Trump carried his district by three points. So Don Davis was going to be a top Republican target this year anyway.

39:27But then North Carolina Republicans redrew the lines. They took away from the district several predominantly black Democratic counties. And they added a handful of Republican counties, like this one. under the new lines, President Trump would have carried the district by 11 points. So by that new math, in 2026, Congressman Davis should be toast, right? Lori Buckhout is the Republican candidate. It's a side charger. Nick McFerrin bought this gun shop in Moorhead City 10 years ago. Says business is pretty good. His politics could not be clearer. What is it you like about him? What's not to like about him?

40:03I think he's straightforward. I like what he does. He's confident Republicans will turn out and flip the House seat. Constantly people talk about the election. I think definitely she will win. Moorhead City is in Carteret County. Trump won 71 percent here two years ago. Local Democrats, though, insist that even here, the midterm mood is change. We're going to roll it blue. People are angry. They're ready for a change. Remember, looks can be deceiving. A room full of excited Democrats on a weeknight is impressive, yes. But the math around here in recent years is pretty lopsided in favor of the other party.

40:42But it is worth listening. Among those on hand are several local candidates who suddenly think maybe they can flip seats in the Republican legislature. Lisa Holman is in charge of getting out the vote for them and for Congressman Davis. All insist the fall mood here is very different from the spring. I just talked to several people on the phone bank today. and they go, I cannot wait to get to the polls. I cannot wait. We weren't seeing and hearing that back in May initially. It was like, yeah, no. And so blue wave, yeah, I really am feeling the blue wave. Be skeptical, especially when it comes to this house race.

41:20But North Carolina hugging the Atlantic coast has two big pluses. One, it's gorgeous. And on election night, it gives us a giant early test of the midterm blue wave debate. John King, CNN, Moorhead City, North Carolina. It is gorgeous, and we will all be watching very closely what happens in North Carolina early on election night. Thanks to John, and thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

41:56Life is all about making decisions. Sometimes you make questionable ones, like buying a new TV that's too big for the wall because the electronics store employee was a little too good at their job. Then sometimes you make great ones, like protecting your home and auto with Progressive. You get customized coverage options so you can be sure you have the right coverage. Get your quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers not available in all states. The secret society of semi-homemade. listen up. Sam's Club has pre-made dishes for a Thanksgiving feast that's ready in two hours, all while tasting suspiciously homemade.

42:36Come join us. Sam's Club. Individual oven times may vary.