Countdown to Change: The Final Days Before the Election

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1:03Manu Raju: Rally cry. With nine days to go, a presidential split screen. He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory. Will it move the needle? Plus, the final stretch. We are going to shock the nation. Who are you going to fight for? Please make sure to vote like Donald Trump is on the ballot. As President Trump looks to his Justice Department to prevent a loss in Alaska, where will it stop? And House Party. It's very likely we're going to get this done. I hit the trail with Hakeem Jeffries. Is he about to make history? All of us are committed to making life more affordable.

1:45Manu Raju: Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

1:55Manu Raju: Good morning and welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. Less than 10 days away, 9 to be exact, and Democrats are on the cusp of taking control of at least one chamber of Congress. Or could it all amount to an historic Democratic collapse? To avoid the latter, Democrats activated their signature campaign closer just yesterday, Barack Obama, who hit the trail for the first time this cycle, laying out his most aggressive indictment of President Trump in years. In appearances in Ohio and in Michigan, mocking the president as an incompetent leader who has made life more expensive. Trump, meantime, is doing everything he can to hang on to power, not just by making a litany of promises if Republicans win, but also using the levers of his Justice Department to intervene in critical races.

2:47Manu Raju: In dueling rallies last night, the contrast could not be starker. People are so ready for something new, so hungry for something better, so sick and tired of being sick and tired, that everywhere you go, it feels like change is in the air. He decided to start an unnecessary war that nobody asked for and nobody voted for. Our country is making hundreds of billions of dollars because of what's happened in the Middle East. because we're making money like this country has never made before. We're making a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down.

3:29Manu Raju: All right, let's break this all down with my excellent panel of reporters this morning. Punchbowl News is John Bresnahan. CNN is Elena Treen. And Semaphore is David Weigel. Good morning to you all. Good to see you. Mr. Weigel, Obama on the trail here. will this actually make a difference in some of these close races because they are very close the democratic base is energized and you know he he can make the argument against trump perhaps more effectively than pretty much every other democrat out there but does it translate down ticket he was in ohio and michigan and where where was he in both places cleveland were black turnouts often a problem for democrats uh in michigan where black turnout not just can be a problem off years, but where Republicans are making a concerted effort to tell black voters they should not trust Abdul Sayed.

4:18Will he help there? Absolutely. That's for Democrats wanting to be. He's making a partisan argument, which is, I think, helpful to Democrats everywhere. I was in Maine this week and ask any Democrat for whatever happens in Maine from day to day. They can just convince the voters of that state who voted for Kamala Harris to look past whatever they like about Susan Collins and vote partisan. Then they win. So he's helpful to Democrats in in in most places he's not going to have the same schedule as donald trump he's not going to go go to as many places but i always struck that joe rogan who's i think faded as a figure in this cycle will say that obama was a statesman he's a more statesmanly president than we've had even though he likes donald trump and at this moment when trump is uh not popular but also not trusted on the economy like he was in every election he's run in having an obama contrast very helpful for Democrats.

5:04Manu Raju: Yeah, and during, you know, Michigan, where Obama was last night, Abdul El-Sayed, he, it's no secret, no surprise why they were in Detroit, because look at where, what happened in Wayne County, where Detroit is based, during the Democratic primary in August. There's Haley Stevens, look at that number, the Democratic primary opponent who he vanquished, Abdul El-Sayed. He lost by about six points to her in Wayne County, and then you get into the demographics. This is overall census data of the people who live in Wayne County. It's 36.6 % black compared to nearly 48 % white here. And we've seen this problem with Abdul El-Sayed with those black voters.

5:42Manu Raju: And this has been a problem with other more progressive candidates, too. It's actually interesting to see how that's, like, say, Mamdani struggled with black voters as well in New York. But clearly that's one big reason why Obama was in Detroit with Abdul El-Sayed last year. Yeah, and who are you going to get to bring out black voters more than Obama? who's better. I mean, you saw in those primaries, Abdullah al-Sayed, Michigan, for instance, did much better with younger voters, white voters, okay? So he definitely, this is a huge constituency in Michigan. This is one that has to come out if he's going to win.

6:16This is a, you know, a very close race. I mean, you talked about my car.

6:20Manu Raju: Would you say Abdullah al-Sayed has the edge at this moment in the race? No, I wouldn't. I said it's a real toss up. I think it could go either way. I mean, I think this is the one place where I think Republicans could really pick up a seat. I don't see it in Minnesota as much. I don't know if you guys agree, but I don't see it in Minnesota as much. I think Flanagan, she has her issues, but I think she'll close there. But I do think in Michigan, this is where they've, Rogers has made a very specific appeal to black voters. He's got an issue with this. You know, I think this is, you know, it's a tough state.

6:55Trump has won it. You know, Trump is there. They're spending ungodly amounts of money up there. I mean, it's just a tidal wave of Republican super PAC money. I think this is a real toss up. It could go either way. I think this is, Rogers is not a bad candidate there for them. He's rambled away from the president. He's pulled away from the president as much as he can.

7:15Manu Raju: But do messages like this for help Rogers and the Republicans down ticket when Trump says last night, Elena, he says, we're making a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger. And those pump prices are going to come down. No. That is the opposite of the advice that his advisors have been giving him for not just these past couple weeks, for months. They know what the message needs to be. That's why the president is always bringing up affordability, trying to turn it around and say it's a Democratic talking point. It's this idea of not leveling with voters where they are. And I've heard this repeatedly.

7:50I'm always on the phone with the president, members of his political operation, of them saying this is a key issue and the president just won't do what they say when it comes to this, which is acknowledge the pain that you're feeling. You know, you look at the vice president, J.D. Vance, he actually does that much better. He says, I know things are tough. People are feeling the pain right now. The president continues to try to paint this picture of everything's great. I've built the greatest economy ever because that is what he promised. but just because he says it doesn't make it a reality and voters understand that and so that's a huge issue and trump said 25 on the economy i mean the democrats are better in the economy than republicans that's not where we were going in 2025 we were on the right we're only i mean this is but trump can't ever admit like he's not doing something exactly amazing so you know this is like the one thing i will say as well is and you see this in the polls and we all talk about how the polls show the economy is going to be one of the biggest issues trump is not as good on the economy, of course, this election.

8:45As much as his team and all these other operatives I will speak to will say, dismiss the polls. They've been wrong in the past. And that's a fair argument. But if you look at the money and the amount of energy and time the president is spending in these places, that's the real warning sign that shows just how much of an issue it is.

9:02Manu Raju: In the meantime, his Justice Department is taking these actions in different ways, including particularly in Alaska. Most notably, this is a race the Democrats have an edge in right now to flip that seat in Alaska. This is this unusual system to top four vote getters get into the general election. One of those two vote getters was another Dan Sullivan, not the incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan, another Republican, a retired school teacher, Dan J. Sullivan, Trump's Justice Department, filing a lawsuit. Trump said he recommended that lawsuit to be filed to essentially get Dan J. Sullivan off the ballot here.

9:36Manu Raju: And Lisa Murkowski, the Republican senator criticized that Justice Department lawsuit. And Trump, late last night, criticized Lisa Murkowski, the Republican, calling her the Republican's worst senator. Then he starts going off on this lawsuit and defending the lawsuit as well. David Weigel, what do you think of this strategy? Well, you have to thank the president for his candor in saying he ordered this. This is the president intervening and telling the DOJ to make an election move, which Alaska Democrats think will backfire. They think it makes Dan Sullivan the senator who on the ballot appears as a Daniel Sullivan Republican incumbent, as opposed to the other Daniel Sullivan who appears as Dan Sullivan.

10:15They think that the case brought by anybody would fail because there have been attempts to overturn elections from RCV or from things like that. Having the president say, I want to intervene to stop this. They think one makes it easier to win in court, but also makes them look desperate now. That's also it's not a big principle for Republicans not to meddle in these elections. I was in Ohio a couple weeks ago and I saw flyers for a socialist candidate for Senate that Republicans are funding the entire campaign of.

10:40Manu Raju: Right. They're like it or not. This is the way politics works sometimes. That's the way politics works. The president's saying I need the attorneys that you and I and I that we're all paying for to intervene in this election before it happens. That's new. Yeah. And I want to turn just quickly to what we're learning from the early vote that's coming in right now. We don't have every single state, but we do have a number of states, which kind of tells us where things are from the early vote. Just look at right here, right? Democrats now in the early vote, they have an advantage of the amounts of votes that have cast so far in some of these key states.

11:10Manu Raju: In Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, you see there on your screen. Alaska, actually Republicans have a slight advantage over Democrats, but independents more than both parties there. So then you compare it to 2024. The Democrats are up. This is at this point in the election cycle, the early votes that have been cast. in all those same states I mentioned, Democrats up there. Alaska, that's the one that they are down. But if you're a Democrat, especially if you look at that main number, I think you're kind of happy about it. And they're going to vote in person, too. I mean, you're talking about, like, Texas.

11:42Texas is breaking all records, right? Harris County shattered its, like, its one-day record. Its early vote record was 62 ,000. In Harris County, 104 ,000 people came out the first day. I mean, that's a 60 % increase, you know. So, I mean, they are going, they're voting early, they're voting in person, because the irony of their Trump, you know, casting down on mail-in votes, which Democrats had used more heavily. Now Democrats are worried they're going and voting in person because they're terrified of Trump and the Justice Department doing something about that.

12:14Manu Raju: And, of course, you never know if a Democrat, just because it says the Democrat voted one way, doesn't mean they voted for the Democratic candidate. So we'll see what that vote ultimately leads up to come November 3rd. Nine days. All right, coming up. Why is President Trump, nine days away, going to Mississippi, of all places? Do Democrats really have a shot there? Plus, I hit the trail with a man who wants to be the next speaker. My exclusive one-on-one with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. We're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives. It's very likely we're going to get this done.

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13:47Manu Raju: Just a couple weeks ago, Republicans had no intention of getting involved in the Mississippi Senate race. Now they are scrambling. President Trump heading there tomorrow to prop up Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, whose campaign has drawn major concerns from the GOP. And they are dumping a bunch of cash on the airwaves to prop her up, responding to Democrats who dropped a seven-figure ad buy behind their candidate, Scott Cologne. So is the state that Trump won by more than 22 points in 2024 really in play? Today, my panel of experts is back. Trump's visit comes after Democrats have been actually making, have been stopping for Scott Cologne for some time.

14:28Manu Raju: You just have a list on your screen there, a lot of them, a potential 2028 on your screen. You're seeing them. But the fact, Elena, that Trump is going there, what does that tell you about what's happening inside the White House and the Republican Party right now, nine days out? Yeah, look, I think six months ago, no one in his orbit or who is working for him on his political operation would have expected that they are going to the states where you're seeing the president go now. This is a trend for him. We've seen him going to a lot of really red states, states that he has won by double districts.

15:00Now, Mississippi, I don't think they're actually as worried about Mississippi. I think his visit is obviously they want a short support. They are very concerned about the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. But still, this is a broader trend we're seeing that I think shows exactly just how concerned Republicans are and how concerned the president is. Now, Mississippi is actually a place where I think having the president there might be more helpful than some of these other places that he's been going, just like Georgia, where he was yesterday. I mean, a lot of people worrying in the Republican Party if that's actually going to boost the Republican or if it's going to boost Ossoff more.

15:35because the one thing about the president, of course, is that he is a great driver of turnout and enthusiasm among his fiercest supporters, which is this whole strategy that they have. And fiercest opponents, too. But exactly. Democrats, he's just as strong if you're pretending he's on the ballot for Democrats.

15:49Manu Raju: No question about it. So just the taste of the ads that Mississippians are seeing now in their state that have just started to go on the airwaves from these outside groups getting involved. You can tell a lot about liberal Scott Cologne based on his friends. Cologne proudly campaigns with Kamala Harris because Cologne supports their radical agenda. Scott Cologne, devoted to family and Christian faith. He'll fight corruption in both parties that drives up costs. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a do-nothing in it for herself, costing you. What do you think of those ads, David? Well, you can see where Republicans are going.

16:27What's a sweet spot for anyone in a reddish state? It is going after their Democrat positions on gender or the National Democratic Party. Why not? Why? But adding to what you were saying, Mississippi, every Mississippi Democrat knows that when the election is over, the legislature is going to start redrawing away Penny Thompson's district. This is already in progress. They didn't have the time to do it. Get such an early primary in 2026. And you've seen Democrats have talked about this and it seems to be pretty real. There are black voters around the country who are very, very angry about what happened in gerrymandering, what's happened since the Kelly decision.

17:01And they're a little bit easier to turn out in a lot of places. So Alabama, too, was drawn to be a state Republican seat. That's competitive. Harder for Democrats. But Steve Cohen left his seat after it was withdrawn. Most of much of Memphis is taken out of it. And Democrats have put some resources in to help Justin Pearson, a black civil rights activist, legislator. That is something that we are watching because it has been hard to turn out black voters in a midterm election for Democrats. and the awareness that you see around the country of how when Republicans have the ability legally to draw their seats away, they will.

17:35I wonder how that will help Don Davis, et cetera.

17:38Manu Raju: In looking at just these reach states and how the money has gone, it's interesting because the candidates who would seem to be the underdogs are actually raising more money. Scott Colombe raising more money than Sidney Hyde-Smith in the last quarter. And you look at other, actually between October 1st and October 14th. And then you look at Annie Andrews in South Carolina,$4 million compared to$90 ,000 for Darling Grant. Ouch. That is incredible, that disparity there. And then in Minnesota, that's the one, as you were talking about, John, was in the last block, that the Republicans maybe hope they can pull up some sick major upset there with Michelle Tafuri, the former sports broadcaster, raising more money than Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic candidate.

18:22Manu Raju: Are any of these at risk of actually flipping, though? Which of those three would you say are most likely to flip, if any? I would say anything Minnesota, but I don't know. I mean, I do think if you look at it, it's all the top 10 Senate fundraisers are all Democratic. And Tallarico and Ossoff raising stupendous amounts of money. I mean,$146 million, I believe, with Tallarico is the report. None of them are Republican, but they're killing them on the super PAC money. Elon Musk putting$450 million. But they don't get that much TV time because of the rates. TV time, and they get rates, but they have ungodly amounts of super PAC money.

19:01But I just think it's hard to see any of those particular ones changing. I do think Mississippi was interesting because there was criticism of Schumer and SMP that they're not supporting a black candidate. I think that goes to your point about Benny Thompson, because Mississippi is a huge black electorate. And, you know, and they're the most loyal voters for Democrats. And they weren't putting money in there. And there was criticism of the Senate Democratic leadership for not doing it.

19:30Manu Raju: And the question is, as we get back into the core states here, just very quickly to look at the polls in the core states. In Iowa, no clear leader. In Maine, no clear leader. In Michigan, these are average of the most recent polls, by the way. So the numbers are pretty solid here. No clear leader in, I need to say, Texas, Michigan. And then in Ohio, the one state that is outside the margin of error, Sherrod Brown, 49 % to John Husted's 44%. Vivek Ramaswamy's ad about Amy Acton's estranged mother, how much is that dragging down Husted, if at all, at this moment? Well, a lot of polling hasn't incorporated yet, but this has been an entire week of the Republican campaign in Ohio has been talking about this ad.

20:13and Ramaswamy had been going after acting in stuff that the, I think all Republicans were comfortable to talk about, even personal stuff. There was one ad that had a stand in for her falling down drunk on a couch to say that basically she's an incompetent pill, et cetera. They had a campaign against her already. They were spending this week discussing about the most sympathetic part of her biography. If she wrote her own whole belly elegy, probably a lot of it will be about this part of her upbringing. And you can tell from the reactions of Republicans before they knew it was a Ramaswamy ad, they were awkward.

20:43They don't want to talk about this. We get into it that they think he screwed up their messaging for doing it.

20:48Manu Raju: Yeah, no kidding. They're pointing fingers at each other and out the other side. Not a great way to end a campaign. All right, coming up next. I hit the West Coast with Hakeem Jeffries as he sounds more confident than ever about taking the House. Even as he sounds alarm bells about November 3rd. But are you saying that's the only way they can hold on to power? I've said that from the very beginning. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business. From designing a website, to marketing, to selling and beyond, Shopify can help with everything you need.

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21:43Manu Raju: It has been a busy time for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who has been barnstorming the country from battleground district to battleground district with a quest to flip the House, become Speaker, and go toe-to-toe with President Trump. So what will he do if Democrats actually regain power? Or could they blow it on November 3rd? This past week, I caught up with him in California at one of the districts he helped gerrymander to boost his party's chances.

22:13Manu Raju: Hakeem Jeffries can taste it, knocking on the door of a history-making victory. If Democrats flip the House and give him the gavel, that would make him the most powerful Democrat in Washington and the nation's first black speaker. Give me the percentage chance of Democrats being in the majority. Would you say 100 % at this point? Well, listen, we're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives. I don't want to attach any particular percentage point other than making it clear it's very likely we're going to get this done. There must be something in the back of your mind, though, that says that something could still go wrong on election night.

22:52Manu Raju: Would you acknowledge that? Well, you have to assume, as we've done from the very beginning, that Republicans are going to try to come up with any diabolical scheme to prevent November 3rd from being a free and fair election. What do you mean by that? Well, we've been planning from the very beginning to push back against all of the voter suppression efforts that they've tried to jam down the throat to the American people. Now, up until this point, we've successfully stopped their scheming. But are you saying that's the only way they can hold on to power? I've said that from the very beginning.

23:23Manu Raju: On paper, the path to the majority seems like a slam dunk. Democrats have to pick up just three seats to win the House. Yet the battlefield runs squarely through Trump territory. Of the 81 most competitive races, 66 are in districts Trump carried. And Jeffrey's big spending super PAC is even pouring money to flip at least 11 districts the president carried by more than 10 points. Even Trump plus 10 districts, those are on the table? These are extraordinary people who are patriots, who've lived a life of service, and are strongly positioned to win districts that Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024.

24:06Manu Raju: Emboldened Democratic groups are now outspending the GOP in the battle for the House, where both sides in total are poised to spend$1.3 billion. Yet Republicans are banking on some key advantages, including from the nationwide gerrymandering wars that Trump set off when he strong-armed Texas Republicans to redraw district lines. We pick up five seats, but we have a couple of other states where we'll pick up seats also. But with the environment eroding for the GOP, Jeff Rees says that advantage is all but gone. Isn't that a path for them to hang on to power if that happens? No, the Republican dummy mander in places like Texas and Florida are falling apart.

24:52And we've seen that day after day after day. There's no circumstance where Republicans are gaining five seats in Texas and no circumstance where they're netting four seats in Florida. Here in California, we're going to net five seats. Ultimately, how many do they net on the Republican side because of Jeremy? That remains to be seen, but at this point, it's looking like one or two at best.

25:15Manu Raju: Here in California, which has been ground zero of the Democratic response, Jeffries and the governor, Gavin Newsom, pushed to redraw district lines to add up to five more Democratic seats, including in the San Diego area that had been represented by Darrell Issa, a retiring Republican. And if Jeffries gets his way, there could be just four Republicans out of a delegation of 52 members from California. How important was that for this race and also for Democrats nationally to retake the House. I am running in a newly redrawn district, but it is still a close race. As Jeffries has been barnstorming the country, so has Speaker Mike Johnson, who has been insisting the polls are wrong.

26:00I'm telling you, the polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what's really happening. They're under-sampling Republicans.

26:09Manu Raju: Do you think that there's a possibility the polls could all be all wrong, and maybe he's right that they are undersampling Republicans? Democrats have won every single meaningful election during the Trump presidency, beginning with flipping a state Senate seat in Iowa in January of 2025. We've been winning elections literally for the last two years, and it's my expectation that's going to continue on November 3rd. The GOP still sees a path to hang on to power, not just by flipping gerrymandered districts in Texas and Florida, but another redistricting target with a Democratic incumbent in North Carolina, as well as a pair of crossover districts in Maine and Washington State that voted for Trump and a Democrat in the House.

26:58Manu Raju: But they have to defend swing seats across the map, like in New York and Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and western states like Arizona and Colorado. The GOP has been forced to cut spending that would have helped endangered incumbents like Marriott Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Tom Kaine Jr. in New Jersey, and in open seats being vacated by Republicans in Nebraska and North Carolina. Every vote counts. Count every vote. But with Democrats suffering rock-bottom approval ratings, victory in November could reflect an anti-Trump environment more than an endorsement of Jeffrey's party. The public doesn't trust either party right now.

27:42Manu Raju: You know that full well. They certainly don't trust Republicans. They don't trust Democrats either. If you guys are back in the majority... Well, let me be clear about that. If you go through the issue set and you ask the American people, who do you trust on the economy? Democrats. Who do you trust on combating inflation? Democrats. Who you trust on driving down the high cost of living? Democrats. So we have a decisive issue advantage across the board. The polls also say when they just ask about Democrats, they don't approve of the job that you guys are doing. Do you have to do anything differently if you are in the majority to convince the American public to regain that trust?

28:20Well, we have to make sure that we're delivering on the promises that we've made to fight incredibly hard to lower the high cost of living.

28:28Manu Raju: Yet if Jeffries assumes the speakership, he very well could have a razor-thin majority and could confront a caucus divided between Democratic socialists and moderates. Isn't this going to be the similar dynamic that really dogged Speaker Johnson and stalled the Republican agenda? House Democrats are very different than House Republicans. These extremists are not interested in actually governing and making life better for the American people. What will connect House Democrats, whether those are progressives or new Dems or blue dogs, all of us are committed to making life more affordable. That's the connective tissue.

29:08We understand. But the details matter. No, listen, life in this country is way too expensive.

29:13Manu Raju: But you'll hear things like abolishing ICE. That divides your caucus. Putting an arms embargo on Israel. That also divides your caucus. How are you going to deal with those things? And what if they say, I'm going to, some of these folks on the left say, I'll only vote for you for speaker unless you commit to doing that? Well, we're focused on November 3rd, not January 3rd. And we'll have conversations with every single member of the incoming House Democratic caucus about what success looks like for them and their communities in the new Congress. One of the first things that we do is to run Pete Hexand.

29:49Manu Raju: On the stump, Jeffries has vowed to boot out the man leading Trump's war in Iran. But he's also facing Democratic calls to impeach Trump. That drumbeat's going to get louder. You know it. Are you concerned about overreach in a Democratic majority? Well, what we've said, specifically with respect to impeachment, we haven't ruled anything in and we have not ruled anything out. I remember Nancy Pelosi tried to resist it and she couldn't. Impeachment. Impeachment won. Well, listen, I mean, which is why you just wait until the facts present themselves. What's the law? What does the Constitution dictate?

30:23And then you decide one way or the other when that's in front of you. But it makes no sense one way or the other to do anything other than make clear we're committed to holding the crooks accountable. This is not complicated. We've seen unprecedented corruption unleashed on the American people. We're going to hold the crooks accountable. We've said it and we mean it.

30:46Manu Raju: If the 56-year-old Jeffries becomes the first black speaker in American history, it would cap a journey, taking him from his middle-class upbringing in Brooklyn, through state politics, and ultimately to the House nearly 14 years ago. But he doesn't want to talk about it. So if you become a speaker, you'll make history. I mean, you'll be the first black person to ever wield the gavel. What does that mean to you? Well, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. I don't want to get out ahead. You haven't thought about that? Listen, what I'm thinking about is winning back control of the House of Representatives so we can come together as Democrats to make life more affordable for the American people.

31:27Manu Raju: All right, next, my expert panel on Jeffrey's many promises and his challenges ahead. Plus, will a last minute endorsement from President Trump Hurt or Help! Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who himself faces voters this week.

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32:42Manu Raju: Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Democrats are banking on a blue wave to win back the House in just nine days. But with the party's popularity still in the gutter and deep divisions between moderates and progressives, will they be actually able to govern if they do win? My panel of experts is back. So first on Jeffrey's strategy, John, he is going, they're spending a lot of money in these very, very ruby red districts. You know, yesterday he was out campaigning against Mike Lawler, who's one of the three Republicans who sit in these Kamala Harris districts. He obviously has a very personal distaste for Mike Lawler.

33:18Manu Raju: He very, very badly wants to beat Mike Lawler. He very badly does. But then he's also, the super PAC is spending in these 11 Trump districts in super red territory. I mean, Texas, Alaska, and all across the South. There we go. My pen can work. There we go. So many of these ruby red districts, what do you think of that strategy? And is that a risk if, say, they don't beat a Mike Lawler in one of those more winnable swing districts, those battleground districts, those bluer districts? I think it cuts both ways. Yeah, you would have that argument. But also, like, this is an unprecedented political...

33:53Is it realistic? Is it realistic for them to do that? The non-precedented political environment for them, it's so good. You can get, you can play in these races for a relatively small amount of money. He's being pushed by the candidates. He's being pushed by other colleagues to go in these places. Why not risk it? Why not put some money in there? If you have the money, go do it. So, like, you're not going to get a chance to play in some of these places in 2028 with a presidential year where Republicans will turn out. If they're not going to turn out this year, why not throw some money in there?

34:26They are so confident of winning right now. They're confident. Senate Democrats are confident they'll flip. But the House guys are already at 230, which is a majority. How big a majority is it going to be?

34:38Manu Raju: Yeah, that's a big question. Because I put that question to Jeffries himself, and he would not say what he thinks of – I mean, he hasn't been saying, I pushed him on it repeatedly. He won't tell you what he had for lunch. Yeah. He won't tell you what his majority is going to be. But is it like – are we looking at a possibility? I mean, they don't want to set expectations too high and fall short of expectations, but the expectation is getting through the roof right now. Is it possible they get a majority of 230 and above, or are we looking more likely a very narrow majority that Speaker Johnson has had?

35:07It is possible they break that. Republicans are a little more confident in the places they've been spending money for years, where their incumbents have been prepped for years. In 2018, there were a lot of lazy people who had never had to compete before who lost, like your John Culbersons. This time, Derek Van Orden, who's just better noir of Wisconsin Democrats. I can't wait to get rid of him. He knows how to win that race. That's tougher. It is this wider map of people who did not have to sweat before or were gerrymandered into a seat that they didn't have to compete for. That's kind of the case in North Carolina 11, right?

35:35Not in our map six months ago. It's on our map now because Republicans had a candidate who imploded for this scandal and then a replacement candidate who's not a good campaigner.

35:44Manu Raju: And now both sides are pulling money out because they expect the Democrats to flip that seat. That's right. So how many places are like that? Or how many people just show up to vote for a Democrat and they vote Democrat? Nobody was expecting Kelda Roys to win 2018 in Oklahoma City. How many like that? Are you seeing much on the other side of surprise Republican winners? I've heard a little bit about Arizona. They like the turnout pattern. But you're hearing much more about places where Democrats were not competitive six months ago. You heard Jeffries. He talked to me about his potential agenda dealing with it in the House.

36:11Manu Raju: He talked about reinstating the ACA tax rates, reversing the Medicaid cuts, trying to end the Iran war, reversing Trump's tariffs. And then you'd heard him talking about these investigations into Trump. Elena, how is the president, are they preparing for the Democratic-led House at this moment, given where things are headed? Absolutely. They've actually been preparing since the start of the president's second term. They are very well aware of what the pattern is like, what history is like when it comes to the midterms. And obviously, they remember the first term very well and the two impeachments that Trump faced.

36:42So they have been preparing for a long time. And that's part of why you're seeing the president so invested in these different races. I mean, when I talked, I remember I did a whole story on this and talked to a lot of people in the president's political operation, like, yes, he cares about Republicans winning, but it's also, of course, personal for him. He does not want to go through what he went through in his first term with all of these investigations and he knows what's coming. So they've definitely been preparing.

37:09Manu Raju: How hard is this going to be to deal with the divide within Jeffrey's caucus? because he's papering over these divisions right now. Yeah, but I don't think it's gonna be as bad as people think. They also have Trump. Trump is the great uniter of Democrats. I mean, do I think they impeach Trump right away? No, but I think they impeach Hegseth and whoever else they can. Maybe they're actually gonna vote to impeach Hegseth when they get back into session. And Republicans will vote for it too. They're Republicans. They pass. I think the first six months, I think you'll see it's easier than 2020 intrudes.

37:38So I think it's gonna get tougher after that.

37:39Manu Raju: Yeah, we will see. A lot ahead, just nine days away And again, we may be nine days away from America's Election Day, but in Israel, voters head to the polls this Tuesday. President Trump endorsed him, but is Prime Minister Netanyahu about to lose his job?

37:59Manu Raju: America's relationship with Israel was a top issue animating Democrats this year. And in just two days, that relationship could face a turning point when Israelis go to the polls themselves. I'm joined now by CNN's Jerusalem Bureau Chief Oren Lieberman. Oren Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received that last-minute endorsement from President Trump last week. But is he in danger of losing? And what could that mean for the relationship with the U.S. and the war with Iran? It's certainly possible that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be on the ropes and face an ouster in just a couple of days here during the Israeli elections.

38:36To a large extent, every recent election in Israeli history has been a referendum on Netanyahu. And this one is no different, but it's so much more than that. This is the first time Israelis will have a say in a national election on the government that presided over the country on October 7, 2023, during the Hamas-led attack, and the failures that led up to that. This is Israel's first chance to weigh in on that. But it's more than that. There were the judicial overhaul protests that preceded that. There are unfinished conflicts in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza. There is what's happening in the occupied West Bank.

39:12The broader social question of should there be a mandatory military conscription of the ultra-Orthodox population. And then there's the issues that most of us would consider normal, the cost of living. It's incredibly high in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. So this is an incredibly important election. From Netanyahu's perspective, he has held together his government for its full term, for four years. And that's the first time that's happened in this country since the late 80s. Netanyahu is effectively a wizard at holding together his government. And that includes the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that have proven very close to Netanyahu himself as loyal parties, with very little ideological differences between the parties.

39:54And that has helped Netanyahu hold his coalition together. But all of the final rounds of election polls late last week have shown that he may well be far short of outright victory. here. The challenge is that his main rival, Gadiel Eisenkot, former military chief of staff, is also short of an outright victory with a coalition that spans right-wing centrist and left-wing parties. And that means that Netanyahu, even if he doesn't have outright victory, he may not be ousted because of Israel's political system. And that is the challenge here facing Netanyahu. It is worth noting that Netanyahu got that full-throated endorsement from President Donald Trump very late here.

40:33It's not clear it shifted any voters, but we'll find out in just a couple of days.

40:38Manu Raju: Indeed, we will. Orrin Lieberman and another consequential election. Thank you for that. And that's it for Inside Politics Sunday. Up next, you're in the Union with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. Dana's guests include Attorney General Todd Blanche and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

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