Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead as Trump Approval Hits New Low

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1:02New CNN polling reveals just how much political ground Republicans have to make up with less than two weeks until the polls close. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:21There are 13 days until the election and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country, here's what's on our midterm radar. We start with brand new CNN polling showing Democrats with a double-digit lead in the race for Congress. It's a generic ballot, and in it, registered voters choose the Democratic candidate over the Republican 49 % to 39%. It also shows President Trump's approval rating at a new low, just 32%. That's down 15 percentage points from just the beginning of this second term. But Democrats have their own image problem.

2:01The poll finds nearly half of voters have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Vice President Vance is in Ohio today, campaigning for Republicans fighting to win tight races in his home state. That includes the GOP candidate for Governor Vivek Ramaswamy, who is facing pretty fierce backlash for pouring $4 million into an ad featuring his opponent, Amy Acton's estranged mother, attacking her daughter. Acton addressed what she describes as a painful family history and her opponent's ad on a radio show yesterday. I was removed from her at the age of 12. My brother was nine for child abuse and neglect that got bad enough.

2:47We were actually living in a tent in the middle of winter. She was eventually arrested. It's awful to see this. It's awful to see her this way. And it's even more incredible to see that my opponent has taken advantage of someone who is who's clearly not well. We're going to have much more in this particularly nasty race ahead. And in Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is getting some backup on the campaign trail from her former Senate colleague Joe Manchin. The West Virginia Democrat turned independent is helping Collins push back against attacks that she's too aligned with President Trump.

3:25This posted on Collins social media this morning. And I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that people of Maine understand what they have in this lady who represents them and nobody else. She only answers to Maine and the Constitution, the oath she took, protect and defend the Constitution. And now to Florida, where Bill Clinton will hit the campaign trail for the first time this cycle. The former president is trying to give Democrat David Jolly a boost in his race against, for governor, against Republican Byron Donalds. You want somebody who will wake up every morning thinking about what you need, not what will make President Trump happy.

4:14Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Bill Clinton's first term in the White House. Yesterday, the Democratic Governors Association announced it's investing$1 million in the race. I have a terrific group of reporters here with me now. Hi, all. I want to go back to the poll because there's a lot more to get to and tick through a few more of the numbers in this poll. It's really pretty stunning, even though we know the trends, to see some of these examples that bear that out. So first look at the president's approval rating with key subgroups. Below 50 percent with seniors, with white Americans, and men in particular.

4:51It gets even worse with women, Latinos, young voters, and black Americans. Just 27 percent of Americans approve of the president's handling of the economy. And voters think Democrats would do better on almost all of those top issues, health care, cost of living, data centers and corruption. Republicans do lead, barely, but they do lead on the issue of immigration. Phil Mattingly, your takeaway. I think to start with, you're right on the trend lines, right? And I think that's actually an important note here, which is poll after poll after poll from national organizations, respected polling organizations are finding the same things in terms of the top lines that we're seeing.

5:33I think when you dig into this poll a little bit and you start looking at crosstabs and you start looking at where Trump supporters explicitly are on this, where I think he has a 74 percent approval right now against people that supported Trump. 38 percent of them approve on what he's doing on inflation right now. 21 percent. There's just like a series of numbers where we see cracks. and across the board on economic-related issues in particular, the Iran war as well, where the one thing that he has always had is that his people don't break. His base is always there. The entire strategy right now is base turnout that you see.

6:11It's why he's going where he's going. It's why their money's going where it's going. And they believe that kind of the voters that they were able to turn out as part of their coalition back in 24 are kind of the only path right now to help the members of their conferences in the House and the Senate win. And right now you're seeing cracks in that. At the same time, kind of Republicans writ large are unsettled and unmotivated. And whether or not people like Democrats, they want change. Exactly. So let's sort of dig into some of what you just said. Just first, we want to show you one other sort of set of examples, just broadly the president's approval rating.

6:45It's really the disapproval. He's underwater, meaning more people disapprove than approve of him on his job as president, the economy, inflation, health care, immigration, foreign affairs, election integrity. But digging into what you just said, Phil, on the question of the president's supporters, this is the voters who are white with no college degree. And I have Ron Brownstein in my ear saying that these are the people that drove Donald Trump and Trumpism for 10 years. Look at that trend. It is a downward trend started just in February of 25. So, you know, last year, 63 percent now is 45 percent.

7:27Jasmine. Yeah, it's actually interesting because I had a conversation last night in North Carolina. I went to the president's rally in Greenville with a woman named Carol Quick, who is a supporter of the president. And I asked her, what are you seeing from your community of folks who also support the president? And she said, I haven't had a conversation with somebody who is against the president, but it's all over my Facebook. And so I asked her, what do you want to hear from the president tonight? Because she said that she had been struggling economically this past year or two. I said, what do you want to hear from the president tonight?

7:56And she said, I want to hear his message of how you're going to turn it around. And I said, well, what happens if you don't? And she shrugged her shoulder. She said, I guess I'll still support him. So those are the people that the president hopes that are coming out to elect Republicans up and down the ballot. She said that she will be supporting Michael Watley, even though she understood that a lot of people aren't going to be in North Carolina. Those are the folks that you're seeing in those crosstabs that are unhappy with the economy, that say that they are struggling with the economy, but still say that they support the president.

8:26The question is, are there enough of those folks still out motivated to go to the ballot? And I think that that's why you're seeing the president go to these deeply red states to try to get that base out there. I totally agree. And if we can just put those last set of numbers up, and Dasha, I wanna get your take on these as well, because again, to me, this tells the story of this election, including, as you said, Jasmine, where the president is going. These are the most ardent, this sort of bracket, demographic bracket, are the most ardent Trump supporters. And he has lost almost 20 percent of them.

9:04So what does that say about the people who aren't the most ardent supporters, who are low propensity voters that came out, decided to give him a shot, and are now not thrilled with the job that he's doing? What Jasmine was talking about reminded me of some reporting that we did a couple weeks ago on the Front Row Joes. These are talk about ardent supporters, the people that are following the president all over the country. Some of them have given up their homes. They bought RVs to make sure that they are in the front row of as many rallies as they can get to. And they spoke to two of them recently who have had a complete 180.

9:41They dedicated years of their lives to this man. And their faith is broken. And it's broken because of the war with Iran and what that's done to the economy. They really believed him when he said no more foreign wars. and they felt that promise was broken. And the Epstein files, they are shocked and disappointed that he has sort of ignored that issue and said it's not important. And now they are, one of them's in Texas, one of them's in Ohio. They're not going to vote. Well, what the president is doing when he travels around, and you have been there, Jasmine in particular, is he's sort of doing the Oprah thing.

10:19You get a car and you get a car. except, you know, in a little bit more targeted way on the promise side of it. Listen to what the president has done and said in terms of promised giveaways. But it's only if Republicans win. If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America$5 ,000. With Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it. If the Republicans win the Department of War, we'll be investing$100 million in the pharmaceutical company Anthea to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.

11:17I'm not sure what that last one has to do with pharmaceuticals and Department of War. But yeah, he said that last night. He said that he would give them$5 ,000 if they won. The crowd honestly responded kind of tepidly. I think that there are some people who believe that$5 ,000 is coming. I think there are some people who have believed that other promises that President Trump promised were coming and they didn't come. And so now that they don't have a lot of faith. That's the ultimate problem is over and over again with all of those issues that you laid down. Promises made, promises kept. Yes. And you've been traveling around as well.

11:45What are you hearing? I think the crowd reaction is a really good anecdotal window into a broader thing that I've picked up repeatedly and swing state after swing state that I've been to focused on the economy. The$5 ,000 thing, no one believes it. No one buys it. And that was actually really effective when the COVID era stimulus checks went out and he put his name on those checks and people remember it forever. And even Joe Biden was like, man, I should have put my names on the checks. It doesn't work anymore. Like people aren't buying this stuff. They don't believe that it's real. And that's a huge, that's as big a departure as what we're seeing in the polling numbers in terms of breaking of the coalition of people just aren't buying anymore that he's going to deliver on these promises.

12:20They see through it on some level. Well, we've talked about this incredibly toxic environment in Ohio because of an ad that Vivek Ramaswamy is running. Just moments ago, the vice president who's in Ohio talked about that and really commented on it for the first time. We're going to show you that. after the break, plus later where to spend, where to cut losses. I'm really excited for this segment. We're going to have two top strategists who helped steer both parties' Senate campaigns. They know firsthand how ruthless calculations happening right now, behind the scenes, are going. Stay with me.

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13:57is delivered or returned it, Mr. Shaq. Not that I would. You never do. No, I never do. So buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. See our seven-day return policy at Carvana.com. Right now, Vice President Vance is in Cincinnati, Ohio, to campaign with Ohio Republicans who are on the ballot, led by Senator John Husted and candidate for governor Vivek Ramaswamy. Moments ago, the vice president commented on a Ramaswamy ad that has roiled the state's governor's race. I'll be honest with you, whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern. What is my concern is who's going to govern the next generation of American government.

14:41Who is going to win the Senate race in the state of Ohio? Who's going to win the governor's race in the state of Ohio? And I got to be honest that when I see Republicans, people in my party reacting so strongly, especially elected officials, look, have the opinion you want to have on that ad. If you think it was too tough, say it was too tough. If you think it wasn't tough enough, say that. But I have to admit that I'm a little bit disgusted when I see Republicans across the country who are whining more about that advertisement than they are about what the congressional Democrats and other Democrats want to do to the United States of America.

15:14Politics is a tough business. And my message to my fellow elected Republicans is if you actually believe in the things you say you believe in, stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days. So the ad that the vice president is admonishing Republicans for criticizing is one that features the estranged mother of Democrat Amy Acton, Ramaswamy's Democratic opponent. And before we play the ad, keep in mind that Acton says she hasn't seen her own mother since she was 12 years old and was removed from her mother's custody over allegations of sexual abuse by her mother's husband. My daughter needs help and she can't help you if she needs help herself.

16:00People can change, but first they have to tell the truth and my daughter still isn't doing that. Don't vote for people who lie. Ramaswamy is putting$4 million behind the ad that you just saw. Now, Amy Acton's stepfather was indicted on child sex abuse charges. That's according to court documents provided by the acting campaign. He fled with her mother while out on bail. My panel is here now. Before we start having this conversation, I do want to play a new ad that the acting campaign released with her brother telling their side of the story. I received a lot of abuse, but Amy always got the worst of it.

16:49she continued to receive that abuse because she knew she had to protect me. And she's 11 and 12 years old. And to think that that's somehow a talking point, shame on Vivek. Native son of Ohio, Phil Mattingly. Talk about this, not just sort of the ad and the way it's being reacted to in Ohio and elsewhere, which I want you to hear about, but what we just heard for the first time from the vice president, which is admonishing Republicans for criticizing the ad that we just ran. Yeah, disgusted, I believe is the word, the exact word that he used, not for the ad or what it delves into without the context that the campaign has put out via actual court documents, but that Republicans would criticize somebody.

17:42These things aren't mutually exclusive. of you can criticize an ad and still want Republicans to win a race and still oppose Democratic policies. The idea that it's not, I think, is absurd and juvenile and frankly means he didn't have a better answer here. And I think that's probably the most important thing to keep in mind. There's a reason you haven't heard from John Huston yet. It'll be fascinating to hear what he says on this, given the fact that I think there's some Ohio Republicans who believe that Vivek Ramaswamy's underperformance up to this point, an inability to not just not be ahead of Amy Acton right now would be down by pretty, in poll after poll, four, five, six points, in a state that's turned so sharply red, has been frustrating to other Republicans who are on the ballot right now, John Husted included.

18:22I would just close with this. Like, as we were sitting here, I texted an Ohio Republican that I've talked to for a long time, really understands the state and these races. And his response was, what the actual bleep? To Vance? No, not Vance. Just the whole thing. About the ad. Just that they would go down this path right now and why. But I think that the point that you're making speaks to the question I have about Vance's reaction, because his reaction was about strategy. And from what I'm hearing is the Republicans in Ohio are scared to death that unless the other Republicans distance themselves from this ad, it's going to drag them down as well.

19:02Well, yeah, I mean, the strategy is all over the map. And And actually what this ad reveals in large part, and I think it's why some Republicans may want to distance themselves, is that in the closing weeks of the campaign, this is what they have to talk about. In part because the Ramaswamy campaign, along with other Republicans, have struggled to find an affirmative message that works with voters. We had a MAGA, Inc. operative, comment on this in Playbook this morning. who said, if you don't have a way to tell voters what you're going to do to improve their lives right now, if you don't have five things you're talking about every single day on the campaign trail, you're likely going to lose.

19:42And the fact that they're leading the final two weeks with this is indicative of the moment. And let's just show the snapshot of where this race is, at least the latest CNN poll of polls. Amy Acton, the Democrat, is up 50 percent, Ramaswamy at 44 percent. So that gives you a sense of why this is the Hail Mary, as it were, by Ramaswamy. Part of what Vance is referring to is really an avalanche of criticism from Republicans that you almost never hear from, including on topics like this, including Nikki Haley, who was on the debate stage in 2024 running against Ramaswamy. Just seeing what we tried to tell everyone back then about Ramaswamy.

20:28He's a bad guy. It's a shame he continues to get away with it. I mean, wow. I mean, that's that is an extreme statement there coming from his coming for his personal. Look, every Republican strategist that I've talked to about this ad has basically said that you don't put an ad out like this if you believe that the polls are wrong. And if you believe that your campaign is winning point blank, period. Another person pointed out to me, and I think that this is a really interesting point, which is that Vivek and his campaign are basically betting on the idea that a Republican voter in Ohio is going to see this ad and then do no additional research into this idea.

21:05Because if you did do more additional research, I think you would find yourself coming away very sad and very kind of gross feeling about this ad. But if you don't and you just take it for point blank, then, you know, perhaps you do get a voter. But again, that's a risky bet. And I think that's why you're seeing other Republicans in the state distances themselves. Yeah, it's also why you saw the acting campaign come out very, before the Ramaswamy team had actually taken credit for the ad. Or had put money behind it. Or put money behind it. They were out with the ad with the brother. They were out with the court documents.

21:36They were ready for this. And they moved very, very fast, knowing that they've got to try and meet the zone being flooded by this. She did not want to debate him. There has not been a debate, which he noted in his statement. And perhaps this is one of the reasons ugly, heated and personal. We're moving on to a different race, different issues. But the Michigan Senate race is white hot. And there's going to be another debate tonight between the two candidates, Abdul Al-Sayed and Mike Rogers. Jeff Zalany is in Michigan with What to Watch For.

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22:48It's round two in Michigan tonight. Senate candidates Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed face off in the second debate of this razor thin race. CNN's Poll of Polls keeps the race with no clear leader. CNN's Jeff Zeleny is in Detroit. Dana, this final debate tonight in Michigan is really going to be closely watched by all sides because the race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed has been one of the most contentious in the country. Of course, it's also at the center of the Democrats' hope to win control of the Senate. They need to hold this plus win four of their seats. Without this, that goes up to five, making it much more difficult.

23:25But this race has had so many cross currents, foreign policy, domestic policy, President Trump hanging over the race. He, in fact, is coming here on Sunday. I'm told Mike Rogers will be campaigning with him in Port Huron. But former President Obama also coming here on Saturday to rally support for Abdul El-Sayed. Now, there are some concerns among Democratic leaders and voters we've talked to here about the strength of El-Sayed among a key constituency, black voters. We talked to voters on both sides about that. The outcome of the election will send a loud message that the black vote is just not up for grabs, like you have to earn it.

24:02We are no longer just voting according to parties, but we are voting according to policy and plans. It only takes this much of Detroit to defect. It only takes this much of Flint to defect. It only takes this much of Saginaw or Inkster to defect. And that could be enough to put us under. And it is that sliver that Pastor Williams was talking about that does concern so many Democrats. in a narrowly contested contest, like most races here in Michigan are. There's no doubt that even a small number of votes either way can impact the race. But again, for the next two weeks, Michigan will be at the center of this fight for control of the Senate.

24:46But the debate tonight could move the needle or perhaps leave it as close as ever for the next 13 days. Dana? Thank you, Jeff. Coming up, how to win the Senate to veteran Senate strategists who have done it before. will take us behind the scenes.

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26:11We are in the 24-7 spend every last dollar, leave it all on the field moment. And one thing is clear, both parties view the Senate as a toss-up now. Let's talk about that and how campaigns, national parties, make these really critical and sometimes brutal decisions in the final hours with two veterans who have been in the room for really tough choices, making those choices. Guy Cecil is a former political director and executive director at the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, where he helped Democrats recapture the Senate in the 2006 midterms. And Jason Thielman is, or was, I should say, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024, when Republicans won their biggest Senate majority in a decade.

26:57So you guys know how to win. That was a long way of saying you know how to win. I'm really excited. Or we pick good timing. Yeah, all of the above. I'm really excited for this discussion. And I want to start this discussion by just seeing where we are and where we started. So one year ago, I want to show our viewers what the Senate map looked like. This is the Cook Political Report map back in October of 2025. I mean, look how different it is from today's, which I'll show you in a second. But just for example, Georgia, if I can get this, that was a toss-up no longer. North Carolina was a toss-up no longer.

27:36Those are going to be blue seats. Texas was likely GOP. Now that is a toss-up. Same goes for Iowa. But how about the states that aren't even on this map here? Not even talking about Nebraska. Kansas? Or what about Alaska? Those are just some of the examples of things that aren't even talked about a year ago. And now we are where we are. I mean, you can see the difference here. It is absolutely mind blowing. I'm going to start with you because Republicans are probably the most eager to try to figure out they have a lot of money, eager to figure out what they do, where they pull out, where they go.

28:21What are those discussions like when you have a map like this that was supposed to be so favorable to Republicans, and now there's so much of the battlefield on GOP turf? Well, first I would start with, well, there are some that certainly said this would be favorable. I think when you are in the midterm of the party in power, it's always going to be an unfavorable set of circumstances. So I don't think anyone's arguing about the weather. It's about what exactly you said is how well prepared are Republicans for this moment. And we're fortunately in a situation where we're able to afford a rain jacket and inclement weather.

28:54So if you look at the spending in eight of these Senate races in September, Republicans were able to outweigh Democrats by a combined total of$188 million. We're in a fortunate situation here where we're not necessarily having to make the same level of cutting board decisions that you might see when you have a map that expands like it does currently. So we have the luxury of being able to walk and chew gum at the same time. In some of these states where perhaps we were not expecting to have a degree of fight that we currently are. Guy. I mean, I'm from South Florida. A rain jacket in a hurricane doesn't really help you that much.

29:34And I think that's really where Republicans are right now. And it's a combination of things. I think they have a more fundamental challenge, which is money is not working. You know, you look at a state like Texas, where they're spending tens of millions of dollars against James Tallarico to undo the tens of millions of dollars they spent against Ken Paxton, who is now their nominee. Or you look at a place like Georgia, where, you know, Mike Collins, who has hired far right radicals, is just off the map because of the quality of the candidate. I think for Democrats right now, It's about how do you move money into those expansion states in successful ways, right?

30:14Adding your 10 ,000th television ad in a state that already has 9 ,999 of them, not that effective. But when you move into a place like Kansas or Iowa, that's where you can really start making a difference. So let's pull the map back up. You mentioned Kansas. You're doing some work for the Senate race in Kansas. Again, I know we're sort of talking about it every day like it's a thing. this would be a historic moment if Democrats can actually do it. I want you both to talk about what you think that we should be looking for besides the painfully obvious in Kansas. Well, one, I think the differential and favorable ratings between the two candidates.

30:53You look at the public polling right now, Adam Hamilton has a net favorable rating at this point in the race, which is pretty unheard of. Roger Marshall has anywhere from a negative 16 to a negative 19 favorable rating. amongst independents, he has a negative 50 approval rating. This is unheard of in a state like Kansas. And so I think what you're really going to be looking for is not just how are we driving turnout in Johnson County, but how are we doing in places like Sedgwick and the parts of the Wichita market outside of Sedgwick, where I think Adam in particular has specific reach. I mean, keep in mind, Adam is the pastor of the largest church in Kansas.

31:27500 churches in Kansas use his Bible studies and his books for their Sunday school lessons and for video content. So the reach there is not just about politics. It's about the kind of person Kansas deserves representing them. So you obviously are doing one, maybe not obviously, I mentioned it, but I'll say it, and you're doing some work for Adam Hamilton. Your firm, your current firm, is doing work in and around a lot of these Republican campaigns for Senate. Just putting the map back up, what should I be circling here? Where are you sort of honing in? I know this is a a multi-pronged strategy because you've got so many states you're defending, but where are you the most concerned?

32:06Well, I think going back to Kansas here, and I think this applies to many of the other states that we might be looking and talking about, is when you talk about polling and looking at some of these numbers, is it a ceiling or a floor? And I think the reality for people like Hamilton is what you are seeing right now for their numbers is a ceiling. What you are seeing for the Republican candidates is a floor. And when you look at who the undecided voters are and the profile, they are going to fall where they're leaning, which come election day will be for the Republican candidate. I think this is - Because it's Kansas.

32:38Because it's Kansas. Guy, you did a great job of trying to sell a similar story in 2014 when you tried to convince us all that Pat Roberts was ready to fall and the polling showed that Pat Roberts was behind the independent candidate, yet lost by 11 points. So you're not worried about Kansas? I think only the paranoid survive is the approach that anyone should take in politics. But I am 100 percent confident that we're going to prevail in Kansas. Let's just talk about. It's a sucker's bet for the Democrats. Before we end, I do want to talk about Michigan. There's a debate tonight and it is blue territory that your party is defending.

33:12And I'm just curious what you think of Abdul Al-Sayed's strategy. We all saw that viral moment over the weekend when Tommy asked him if he would disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. And we've seen the way that El-Sayed responded to that, which was with a very lengthy explanation of why he thinks that that's a question of dual loyalties. It wasn't just at that moment. He's saying it multiple times. He could take the tack of, of course I disavow. What's the next question on gas prices? but he's not doing that. Is that the right move? Well, I think part of it is he's been asked this question or these types of questions over and over and over again.

33:56And I may have some differences with the candidate, but the reality is that this is what got him here, right? Republicans have been running tens of millions of dollars of ads against him since before the primary. And yet he's still in a race where he leads Mike Rogers, you know, by three, four, five points. And so - But if you were advising, would you say, just keep doing what you're doing or - Yeah, if I was advising him, I would say, look, ground yourself in Michigan. Talk about your Michigan experience. Ground yourself in your family history there. And then take the fight to Rogers. And I just want to show that I actually do know where Michigan is.

34:28I know I circled the wrong one. It's okay. That is Minnesota. That is Michigan. Real quick. That's not what he's doing. I mean, they ought to take him and put him in a bunker somewhere. Because every time he opens his mouth, he continues to perpetuate a problem. And I think Senator Kennedy said it best. when he goes to bed at night, it looks like he's sleeping in bin Laden's jersey. I mean, he is just continually, continually— You want to know why he answers the question? Because you have—I mean, it's one thing to criticize a policy. Talking about a guy being an Osama bin Laden's jersey is pretty disgusting.

35:00And I think this is why he answers the questions the way he does. And it's this type of overreach. What's disgusting here is apologizing for anti-Semites. This type of overreach. That's what's concerning and disgusting here. You can criticize— He uses to create obvious distance here. He's the candidate for the Middle East, not for America. Overtalking me doesn't make you right. And you'll want to apologize for what you just said later. The reality is you can criticize his positions on Israel without saying he sleeps in Osama bin Laden's jersey. It is okay to criticize candidates. It is not okay to do what he's doing, what Vivek is doing, which is taking this campaign to a different level because they are so desperate to overcome what is a fundamentally flawed election cycle for Democrats or for Republicans and a fundamentally flawed president.

35:42And that's why these races are on the ballot. That's why we're talking about Kansas and not Georgia and not North Carolina. You're expanding your reach, but you're not expanding your grasp. The fact that we are talking about Michigan in the midterms of the party in power is really actually exhibit A in the fact that your party has completely failed to recruit the quality of candidates. You recognize this on the front end when you did everything, the party did everything in its power to avoid him to be the nominee and failed miserably. How did Michael Rogers do in his last election? Now you're paying the price.

36:13How did your recruit did his last election? He came with an 18 ,000 vote. We're not going to solve this here. That took a turn. I'm not going to, you know, I did not expect that to turn into a debate. And, you know, that was, I think it was important what you said. And I appreciate you both being here. Thank you. Thank you both. Up next, John King is in a Texas toss-up district where Republicans see warning signs and Democrats are dreaming of a historic turnout. If we get united and we show up, I mean, we could flip everything. The reality is, is it going to happen? Will my people show up? We don't know.

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37:36A new CNN poll underscores why Republicans are sweating over southern Texas. The House district's there with a high percentage of Latino voters. Nationwide Hispanic voters favored Democrats by 40 percentage points, 60 to 20. 15 % do not plan to vote. CNN's John King is all over the map in a Texas district wondering if they will turn out.

38:02Corpus Christi Bay, Southeast Texas, a spot on the map that was supposed to be a safe harbor for Republicans this year. I'm calling on behalf of James Tallarico, Gina Hinojosa and Democrats down the valley. Supposed to be. We're asking for your vote. It's crunch time and Nueces County Democrats are bursting with energy, believing even Ruby read Texas might be part of a giant midterm message. Connect with each other and figure out what we need to do ahead. The governor's race is tight. So is a nasty Senate clash. And the House race here in Texas 34? A toss-up too, despite election year redistricting, Texas Republicans thought would paint it red.

38:47I'm so grateful for Texas. This picture does speak a thousand words. The Speaker of the House trying to save his narrow majority, looking out at the very reason he is on the road nonstop. Yes, it's a hot, sweltering weekday, but still a tiny crowd. Republicans are worried about enthusiasm, worried about turnout, worried about a big swing blue from Latino voters. Everybody's watching what you're going to do. They say that Texas is going to turn blue. Is that true? Yes!

39:22Where did all the money go? It's like, who's getting rich and where is it going? Is it the oil pipe games that are all getting rich? Somebody's getting it. The politics bar is in the slice of Corpus Christi added to the redrawn 34th. Four friends around the table, two Democrats and two Republicans. So let's skip the parties and the names for a minute. Okay. Raise your hand if you think things need to change. So that's everybody at the table. Republicans Milton Reyna and Richard Contreras in a very different mood from our first chat here eight months ago. I don't trust what's being said right now.

39:56I think we've been told the same thing over and over again, and we haven't seen any results, any action from it. And yeah, I am disappointed. Our war is the problem, to be honest with you. I think we're struggling with that, and we need to get out of that. We need to finish it and move on. Still on Team Abbott for governor. I like Abbott. I like Abbott, too. But Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton turns their stomachs. You're a Republican, and you're having a hard time in a race that could determine which party controls the United States Senate. I need to be an American first, I think, honestly, and I have to make that decision based on character.

40:33And right now, Paxton's character is just not doing it. This side of the table is excited. Does this time feel actually different, that it's possible as opposed to a dream? It does. I think that's different. It does. Ramon Herrera is betting on a big swing in the Latino vote. You need to stop Trump from everything that he's doing. It's not working out. Yeah, I'm saying. And Adelita Cavada sees another positive for Democrats. I've seen young people more excited this time on the line, in person. The new 34th stretches 150 miles from Corpus Christi to the Mexican border. Kingsville is conservative, working class, more than 70 % Hispanic.

41:19The lines for the Kingsway Family Church Food Bank keep getting longer. You know, the economy right now has been hard. Like, from people, yes, people right now, food is getting expensive, gas. And in our community right now, lately, our electric utilities have gotten real expensive. Pastor Steve Martinez votes his values. Abortion, gay, and transgender rights matter most to him, and he will vote Republican. But at the moment, prices matter most to many of his congregants. Just a while ago, I was like, one guy just wasn't lying. He was like, man, I'm just struggling. The economy is hard. You know, it's like, what do I do?

42:01Plus, a lot of anger at ICE enforcement. Even Trump supporter Martinez says he's too aggressive and is reaching way beyond the bad guys. A lot of people's decisions are going to be now because the big ice has been hard on a lot of families. And if their decision is made by that, then they're voting for Democrats. They're voting against Trump, right? Yeah.

42:31Cristina Alvarez among the campaign workers walking door-to-door in working-class neighborhoods, vital to Democratic hopes. I'm here on behalf of Vicente Gonzalez for Congress. Sorry? Oh, he's your man. Awesome. That's good to hear. But a few doors down, a reminder every vote matters. Okay. I'm decided. This neighborhood is a bit more upscale. Daisy Alcazar and her husband bought here eight years ago. This is home. But you say at the moment home doesn't always feel like home. There's a lot of fear in the community. Even here? Yep. People are inside their houses, not going outside unless they need to for survival.

43:19Ten or twelve? Ten. Your reading skills are not working too. I didn't even look at the box. That's the box. La Palais is Alcazar's business. Traditional Mexican ice cream treats. This is what most people would think of as the American dream. Family with immigrant roots, starts a business, employs people, makes their community richer in every way. I'm proud. I'm proud to be Mexican. I'm proud to represent our culture. I'm proud to grow and scale the business. But we have never seen this before. We have never been seeing our community being hunted down in the streets. And that is the reality of what's happening.

44:05Alcazar had to close a couple of shops during COVID. She will continue to sell to grocery stores and to restaurants. But this last storefront is closing soon. This right now is worse than the pandemic. Oh, a thousand percent times. Because when there's fear in the community, it paralyzes you. You don't eat. And we don't have customers. I sell ice cream for the love of God. We sell paletas. We are the cherry on the top where it's joy and the experience here should be joy, it should be happiness, where the reality is we don't have customers. Elcazar is voting blue in every race she can, hoping to send a message to the president and to the governor.

44:46She urges everyone she sees to vote and to take along family and friends. But she worries that fear will keep people home or the belief it just won't make a difference. If we get united and we show up, I mean, we could flip everything. The reality is, is it going to happen? Will my people show up? We don't know. John King, CNN, Brownsville, Texas. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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