Dems Leading or Deadlocked in Four Critical Senate Races

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0:45Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Brand new CNN polls show Democrats leading or deadlocked in four critical Senate races. With margins this tight, anything could happen. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:22Now just five days until the election. and we are tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power right here in Washington and all across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. First up, that new CNN poll. It shows Democrats ahead in two of the Senate's most consequential races. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers, 49 to 42 percent. In Texas, a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator nearly four decades, James Tallarico tops President Trump's hand-picked candidate Ken Paxton 49 to 43 percent. But in Maine, a GOP Senate seat that went for Kamala Harris just two years ago, and in Kansas, where President Trump won by more than 16 points in 2024, the Senate races have something in common.

2:13No clear leader. The result is inside the margin of error. And President Trump just weighed in on the controversy surrounding Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola after an explosive New York Times report alleging her allies went to great lengths to find a candidate with the same name as incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, the man they're hoping to defeat. Now, the president was already obsessed with this to Dan Sullivan situation. Unsurprisingly, he seized on the new reporting. Nobody's going to know what to do. That's a fraud and it shouldn't be allowed to happen. And it was done in conjunction with Schumer and everybody else.

2:55It's an absolute, it's called voter fraud. You would respect the election results if they're honest elections. In your view, what constitutes an honest election? Well, I think what they do, if they don't correct this, would be certainly a dishonest election. Alaska's Republican Governor Mike Delaney, excuse me, Dunleavy, forgive me, is ordering an investigation into Peltola's Senate campaign. Now, she denies she had anything to do with getting Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot, along with Senator Daniel S. Sullivan. And buckle up for this one, because it could break your brain. A new report on an AI-generated message paid for by a group supported by an AI industry titan attacking a candidate for taking AI money.

3:43Let me explain more. CNN's K-File is learning Lone Star Liberty, which is a pro-Ken Paxton super PAC that received$10 million from Elon Musk, is using an AI-powered robocall to attack Democratic Senate candidate James Tallarico for allegedly taking money from data center special interest groups. That's according to audio recordings reviewed by CNN that start like this. Hi, my name is Jennifer and I'm a virtual staffer with Okay, so unlike traditional robocalls, that AI voice is designed to actually interact with voters in real time. And it goes on to deliver Republican attacks on Tallarico, including the one on data centers, which of course is powering the calls to even happen in the first place.

4:34Told you it would break your brain. President Obama returned to the campaign trail last night while stumping for candidates in Georgia. He pushed back on the Trump administration's obsession with a joke he made over the weekend about White House renovations and the Cheesecake Factory. They did not dispute what I said about them being directly responsible for rising prices. They did not argue with that. They did not deny terrorists were contributing to higher costs for families, but he was very upset about the Cheesecake Factory comments. They mobilized a whole of government response to that joke.

5:17Not to inflation, but to that joke. The former president got another thing off his plate. He confirmed he's been to the Cheesecake Factory many times. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters, all of whom I'm sure love the Cheesecake Factory as much as I do. Maybe not you, David, but everybody else. I know you. I know you do. I know you do. I know. I just say, you know, you have you have a very sophisticated palate. Yeah. There you go. There you go. Let's talk about the polls. David, I'm going to start with you. I want to put back up the the top lines here and just show how tight these are and also how the Democrats are ahead in two of them, but also how it relates to the president's job approval.

6:06So Kansas, 42%. They received the top line. But Kansas, the president is at 42%. In Texas, the president's approval, we can go to those, is 41%. There you go. Michigan, 33%. Maine, 32%. So this kind of tracks with what we're seeing in the Senate results. Yeah. Although it's so interesting, though, right? Because what you can see there is the redder states, right? Kansas, Texas. He's above the 40 percent mark. He's still upside down, obviously. But it shows that those are redder states. What's intriguing to me is that even in the red state of Texas, where he's a little bit above the 40 percent mark, we have the Democratic candidates, Jellarico, leading outside the margin of error.

6:52And in Maine, where it's his worst approval rating because it's the bluest state of the group, we are seeing a no-clear leader race between Jackson and Collins. So Donald Trump is clearly the defining figure in this race overall. It's a referendum on him. In fact, we ask people, is he a factor? Not a factor. If he is a factor, are you casting your ballot to support or oppose him? Overwhelming the plurality across all four states say, oh no, he's a factor and I'm voting to oppose him. So he is a weight around the Republican Party. It's just interesting to see. You can see why Collins may still yet again be able to outrun the Trump factor in the environment.

7:34He's so low and that race is still so tight. And the DNA of her state. Let's look at the motivation, which is kind of what you were alluding to here. One of the questions in this poll is, are you extremely motivated to vote? And you see the difference there, literally in red and blue. Democrats from Texas, Kansas, Michigan, and Maine are much more motivated to vote, they say, than the voters who say that they are supporting the Republican candidate. Yeah, listen, and I imagine that Donald Trump going to these states, these red states and blue states alike, only motivates these voters, the independent voters as well as Democratic voters, who really want to see a check on this president.

8:20His calculus is he's got to do something to sort of get the gang back together again. These MAGA voters who are upset with all of his policies that have cost them a lot of money at the gas tank and the diesel pump and all that. So we'll see what ends up happening. What's interesting, if you look at, I was looking at particularly the Michigan pool, right? This is a state that's been battered by Trump's policies and the Canada tariffs and all that. And Abdul El-Sayed, it does look like he's kind of pulling ahead. If you look at a poll one or two or three weeks ago, seems to be consolidating the black vote a bit.

8:54And it seems like some of these attacks, at least on him, that are so terrible and racist and below the belt and have nothing to do with who this man actually is. Those could be actually backfiring, too, on Mike Rogers and that contest. Yeah, and we're going to talk a lot more about Michigan in the next block. On the Kansas race, let's listen to a little bit of what the incumbent Republican Roger Marshall is saying on the number one issue, which is the economy. This is one of the best economies I've ever seen in my lifetime. Yes, gas prices are too high, but the economy itself, there are great jobs, manufacturing jobs growing all over the state.

9:34in many reasons because of President Trump's policies as well. Taking a note from the Trump playbook there, right? I mean, we've seen that messaging from the White House when it comes to the economy, this idea of essentially saying you're wrong, like voter, for feeling this kind of economic anxiety. The economy is actually great. We've seen other administrations do that, too. It doesn't work, right, to tell people that what they're feeling and what they're seeing in the sense of going to fill up the tank or going to the grocery store, that that actually doesn't line up, right? Here you see Roger Marshall taking that sort of path rather than trying to meet people where they're at.

10:18This race is fascinating too. When you talk about, yes, the economic frustration hang over the race, but also the issues that are so specific to the candidate here. We're coming off a year where Trump's bill cut the social safety net. And then you have a candidate that also has faced accusations of suing different people that were behind on their health care payments, at the time going to court to try and get severe punishment for them. His own patients as well. Coming at a time where people are worried about their own health insurance payments as well, I mean, that is going to foment to a really tough situation for the incumbent.

10:56And I think to sum it up, these polls show us how much candidates matter on both sides of the aisle. And it's, you know, got a lot of pros and a lot of cons. However, David, you like to point this out a lot. And our new poll gives us some numbers to back up the warnings that these are all very close races and they are in, for the most part, very Republican territory. For example, the question of persuadable voters. Where are they? Who are they? Kansas, the persuadable voters, 60 percent are Republicans or lean Republican. In Texas, 67 percent of persuadable voters are Republican or lean Republican, which, David, tells us that if they are persuaded enough to go with their DNA, then these will not break for the Democrats.

11:53You'll just see it snap to a completely different range. Which is an important thing to keep in mind. It is. And I would just note, so I'm so glad you showed the partisan breakdown of that persuadable universe. It's also not an insignificant chunk of the overall population. In Texas and Kansas in our polls, it's like 13 or 14 percent still say they can change their mind. That's not an insignificant chunk. And yes, they are, mainly because they are also red states, Republican-leaning voters who we've watched elections could easily, in this time of polarization, put on their, I'm not suggesting this is a fait accompli, but could put on their Republican jersey.

12:28And if they do, you know, that really would change the calculus. Which is where all the money is being spent. I do want to ask you about Alaska. Right. Which we started with the fact that the president unsurprisingly spoke out about it. He has been, by all accounts, really obsessed with the two Dan Sullivan thing. In the first place, the DO, So he asked the DOJ apparently to find a way to make it a federal case, which they're trying to. But then we have this new reporting from your paper, Zolan, which really details the way Democrats did try very hard to find the other Dan Sullivan. Yeah, listen, I think a lot of just sort of average rank and file grassroots Democrats look at this and say, it's a good thing that finally Democrats are sort of bringing a knife to a knife fight, right?

13:16and not a sternly worded letter. And so that's one half of it. You know, and, you know, I'm from South Carolina, so dirty tricks are sort of something I'm familiar with. I was sort of impressed that they were able to kind of pull all of this off. Democrats are not known for being able to do this sort of, you know, coordination. Of course, leaked, which I think speaks to, in some ways, Mary Paltola has terrible staffers who also leaked that they don't want to feed her lizards in the New York Times. This will, of course, give Donald Trump wind in his sails and talking about the Democrats being a party of cheaters.

13:53And so to the extent that they had the high ground on this, they're giving him some talking points, which could go a long way. We'll see if this sort of procedural mishekas in Alaska. Yeah, in a different time, it would be, you know, dirty tricks. And we can point out that Republicans have done the same things, even in this cycle. And Alaska tried to use rank choice to their advantage. But this is a time when the president sows the seeds and Democrats just gave them fertilizer. Yeah, that's right. It only fuels the cycle of sowing doubt around the election. And yeah, sure, it's happened before.

14:29I still have heard from folks who are like, this isn't a good look, you know, to have people going around with a fake name trying to recruit people to be on the ballot, right? And Kellen Browning was the reporter on that story and did a really fantastic job. Yeah, sure did. All right, coming up, Haley Stevens says she will vote for her former Michigan Senate rival, Abdul El-Sayed, but she has a warning for him again. Plus, these candidates know the power of prayer, but will it help them flip Republican seats? A look at the Democratic faith leaders on the ballot Tuesday.

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16:10Michigan, Michigan, Michigan. It is the battleground state everybody is talking about. And remember, we showed you at the top of the hour the new poll putting the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, ahead of the Republican, Mike Rogers, by seven percentage points. What's going on on the ground? Well, Jeff Zeleny is there in Jackson, Michigan. Jeff, I know you were just at an El-Sayed event. He just wrapped up campaigning with the Democratic Senator Alyssa Slotkin. What happened? They were both firing up Democratic volunteers and supporters, urging them to go out and do an afternoon of canvassing in this beautiful weather here today in Michigan, getting their door literature, getting their signs and posters, going out for the final five-day push.

16:55But we did catch up with him very briefly and ask him what he thought of these new CNN polls. And he told us this. You love to see it, but we're going to run as though we're 10 points down. And that sort of underscores just the uncertainty about this race here in Michigan. But campaign advisors do point to the climb among independent voters. They believe that independent voters here who have the economy front and center on their minds certainly are going to play a big role in the outcome next week. There's no doubt. But Dan, a more interesting layer here, a second layer here in Michigan, as you well know, is this Democratic infighting.

17:29Is Abdul El-Sayed going to sort of build this Democratic coalition that is usually used to win here. Well, Senator Slotkin addressed the point head on as she talked to Democrats. What is going on right now means that there's really only two teams, right? It's not progressive versus moderate. It's not this or that. It is team fight versus team flight. That is it. That is the only difference. The things we disagree on are one thing. They are the things we agree on. are so much bigger than those differences. So Senator Slotkin effectively sending a message to Democrats to join the team and telling others that, yes, there can be some disagreement.

18:15She even went on to say that she disagrees on several things with her fellow Democrats. She didn't specify what those were, but she said we often have big debates about things. But she basically said now is the time to come together. But, Dana, even the fact that she is saying that five days before the election underscores that uncertainty here among some African-American leaders, some Jewish leaders as well, who simply have not gotten on board with this campaign. So, again, we will see the breadth and scope of that. But it was very interesting that she made that point directly here. She also goes on to say that she's the last one to beat Mike Rogers by some 19 ,000 votes just a couple of years ago when he was running in 2024.

18:58And she said that Democrats and independents need to turn out to make sure that happens again. So, yes, some positivity here, I would say, but some optimism. But I would say cautious optimism from this camp as well, Dana. All right, Jeff, thank you so much. And Zolan, I just want to show some of what Haley Stevens said to Caitlin Collins last night. This is some of what Jeff was alluding to. So Haley Stevens lost. It was tight, lost to Abdul El-Sayed in the primary. and she had a large share of the black vote and the Jewish vote. And she endorsed, but has also been critical. They haven't spoken at all and they haven't campaigned together, obviously.

19:40And she has been critical of some of the things that Syed has not done. Watch what she said with Caitlin last night. I still very much want our Democratic nominee, his name is Abdul, to win this race. There's so much on the line. But I will be honest, there are a lot of voters in Michigan. I was out knocking doors earlier today in Macomb County. And they are still undecided. And they are hurt and they are confused. And this is why I think our nominee is in a very strong position to denounce the hateful ads that have hurt people. So two things. Number one is an ad, one of the closing ads featuring Tucker Carlson.

20:32And number two, really more of a video, not affiliated with El-Sayed's campaign, which shows people going into a grocery store effectively blaming Jews for high prices. El-Sayed put out a statement saying it's not affiliated with his campaign and that he's focused on other issues. nobody speaks for him he did not denounce the ad which is why because they don't talk she's going public saying like let me help you help help everybody else by getting the voters your way i will put up on the screen here the support for abdel al-sayed in our latest poll shows that he is consolidating the democratic vote just two months ago he had 90 percent now 95 that's pretty high Yeah.

21:17So my question here would be like moving forward. Is this going to be Haley Stevens making comments that addresses the concerns of those moderate voters, those Jewish voters who have real concerns around past statements from El Syed or those he has campaigned with? or does this put into the spotlight those concerns and actually deepen the fissures between those moderates and progressives? I think that's sort of what's making some Democrats who watch this interview wonder, will this sort of be helpful here? Is this necessary for accountability purposes? And I just, I don't want to lose sight of what's going on on the Republican side as well, where Republicans are saying things like this from Ted Cruz about El-Sayed.

22:05If I am correct that he is a passionate supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is a very real risk that Americans will die as a result. We have every reason to believe that Abdul al-Sayed, if he found out, okay, they're about to apprehend these terrorists, that he would let those terrorists know. Yeah, I mean, listen, I have been shocked at the level of rhetoric directed at Abdul El Said. Listen, I think all the Hassan Piker stuff is fair game. A lot of the other comments that he has made, totally fair game. But this idea that he, this man who was born and bred in Michigan, went to the University submission, is a Rhodes Scholar, is a doctor, this idea that he's somehow a threat to Americans' lives and that he has to go through a metal detector and he's a jihadist.

23:03I am shocked that Mike Rogers is sort of allowing this. This is a guy who is our colleague, right, at CNN. We sat on panels with him. And he has also trafficked in this rhetoric that's dangerous, that's dishonest. And I think it's going to boomerang against Republicans. I think to the extent that they've had a problem with some of these groups. The fact that these Republicans are profiling him in this way, I think is going to be a problem for them. We'll see. Up next, a live look in Rock Hill, South Carolina. President Trump is about to take the stage. You see, that's Darlene Graham. He's there to campaign for her, his handpicked candidate there.

23:41Stay with us.

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24:21We're looking at pictures in Rock Hill, South Carolina. That's live, where President Trump is holding his second rally in just eight days for Darlene Graham, who is talking to the crowd there. Graham's contest with Annie Andrews, the Democrat, is one of the unexpected toss-ups of this Senate midterm season. CNN's Elena Treen is there in Rock Hill. Elena. Yeah, Dana, look, you could actually hear Senator Darlene Graham speaking behind me. I say senator because she was appointed to that role after her brother Lindsey Graham died in July. And really, now she is fighting to hold on to that seat. But it is a very tight contest between her and the Democrat, Annie Andrews.

25:05I was also here in South Carolina about that other rally you mentioned last week where the president came. And the message you heard, I'm told, is going to be very similar tonight, that continued push to say you need to have a Republican remain in the Senate in South Carolina. You need to keep the state red. And this is a state, Dana, that the president, of course, has won, I feel like, at 2022 by 18 points or so. And so you're totally right when you say some people were surprised that this is as contested, that this race is virtually a toss-up as we are just a couple days away from November 3rd.

25:38Now, in the conversations Dan and I have with members of the president's political operation, with Republican strategists, part of the reason, they say, is because of Darlene Graham as a candidate. This is one of those states where some wonder if perhaps another candidate who she had defeated in the very contested primary, Ralph Norman, if he was on the ballot, would there be as much anxiety about this race? I mean, we have seen so much money, especially on Annie Andrews side, I should say. She's been raising way more than Darlene Graham in this race. But when it comes to money, energy, time spent here, part of it is because Darlene Graham is very inexperienced.

26:14And so they wonder if that will hurt her on Tuesday. We'll see. But Trump coming here to see if he can push her across the finish line with just a couple of days left to go, Dana. All right, Elena, thank you so much. Appreciate that. David, I'm going to put up on the screen the list of states that the president has rallied. and again, this is his 25th in 19 states. I don't even have time to read them all because there are so many, but it goes from the last guy. He does say he's working his ass off. He is. No one can accuse him of not working his ass off. Yeah, seriously. And the question is to what end?

26:47Yeah, I mean. See what I did there? Well done. It is astonishing, obviously, how much ground he's covering and how focused he is on this and doing the work. It's also because he and his team believe he is uniquely qualified to take this Republican lack of enthusiasm, depression, if you will, that we are seeing in the early vote, that we've seen in special elections in this Trump era, and trying to see if he can do something to motivate them to come out and vote. Because that's the whole ballgame here, Dana. If you're in these deep red states, if you can just get Republicans to show up and do what is natural to them, you're not in a persuasion environment.

27:28you're just kind of like, guys, get out and do your thing. And that, Donald Trump believes, he has the ability to do. And you've been to a lot of these rallies. Yeah. Yeah. The question I always have at these rallies is, one, you see the enthusiasm there. But is he building enthusiasm among the people that were already going to go to a rally because they are MAGA diehards, they are dedicated Trump supporters? Or is he convincing some of the people that are still frustrated about the Iran war, the economy, what have you? That remains to be seen here, right? I mean, in many ways, this travel is to comfort zones, right?

28:02And already deep red areas. But you're right. The gamble is we are going to make those dedicated MAGA voters that turn out in a presidential cycle turn out in the midterms. We're going to have to see. But the travel has been extensive. Yeah. And then you have people like Vicente Gonzalez, who I had on the show yesterday, the president went to his district this week and he said, keep coming. It's great for me because it helps get Democrats out too. Yeah, I think that's right. You know, he's in South Carolina in that area where Ralph Norman is popular. Ralph Norman's son, of course, has come out and said that he's going to back Annie Andrews.

28:38He's uniquely qualified, I think, to get out. Democrats uniquely qualified to get out Republicans too, but he's also uniquely to blame Trump is for the state that his party finds himself in a state like South Carolina. You add Georgia to lose you at Texas to the list. Terrible, terrible candidates in all of those states. All right, everybody, thank you so much. Don't go anywhere. Up next, multiple faith leaders are on ballots across the country. Will their calling give them an edge on Tuesday? Our special report is next.

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30:09One of the dynamics this election year is that Democrats are competing in deep red states, hoping to flip several Republican-held seats. And many of the candidates trying to do so are men and women of the cloth, connecting with voters on faith. They march. The least we can do is walk. These candidates are going from the pulpit to politics. I pastor a church of 24 ,000 members. I was a parish pastor. It's a 2026 trend for Democrats. You may know me as a state representative, but I'm also a chaplain. At least eight Democratic Senate and House candidates around the country are ordained ministers or seminarians, like Texas Senate candidate James Tallarico.

30:57When I take on the politicians who are serving themselves and not the people, I am doing it on biblical grounds. The raw volume I haven't seen in my career. Jack Jenkins is a reporter for Religion News Service and says the number of clergy running as Democrats is astounding. What is your sense of the why? There does seem to be something that resonates when a candidate is a vocal person of faith. It's notable where the most hotly contested versions of these races are, right? We're seeing Reverend Adam Hamilton run in Kansas. I mean, they haven't had a Democratic senator since the 1930s. I looked at what was happening in Washington.

31:34I thought, this is not what I've been preaching for the last 38 years. There's an indecency in Washington. Hello there. How are you? Adam Hamilton is the most high-profile pastor running on the Democratic ticket. His United Methodist Church of the Resurrection has more than 20 ,000 congregants and nine locations. They're making it harder for Republicans to cast Democrats as anti-religion or anti-Christian. In Texas... We are going to shock the nation, shock the world, when we beat the billionaires and take back Texas. Democrats are hoping James Tallarico can deliver the first Senate victory in the Lone Star State since 1988.

32:19Tallarico is in the process of becoming an ordained pastor. His stump speech often sounds sermon-esque. In a world obsessed with power and wealth and status, Jesus is saying that real greatness is serving others. His faith is creating a permission structure for crossover voters. David French writes about politics and religion for his column in The New York Times. He recently traveled to Texas to see if Tallarico leaning into his faith is connecting with voters who wouldn't normally consider a Democrat. He's got to give people a reason to vote for him. And person after person I talk to use some variation of the phrase permission structure.

33:03In other words, by very intentionally reaching out to people of faith, by very intentionally highlighting his faith, and by very intentionally leading with a decency in contrast to the corruption of the Paxton and the name-calling of the Paxton campaign, he's trying to create a contrast that says, look, if you like Christian values like kindness and humility, this is the campaign for you. To be sure, many Democratic candidates who are clergy say they are running because of their faith. Ordained minister Chris Jones is a Democratic congressional candidate in Arkansas. He told me his faith played into his decision to run.

33:43Humanity is hurting because of all of the vision. And so those of us that are of the cloth, those of us that are ordained ministers are saying this is another way that we can step up. But particularly among Black ministers, it has long been a tradition that Black ministers have stepped up in leadership roles, also in politics. Democrats with religious credentials is not a new phenomenon. Missouri Representative Emanuel Cleaver, a minister, has served in Congress for 20 years. Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock, pastor at the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, was elected in 2021. Nobody knows the trouble I've seen.

34:20We've seen the Democratic Party. It's a learning organism, sometimes a slowly learning organism. But it is learned that it has to lean into the people and the figures in the party who are people of faith. And I think one of the first people to show that way or to blaze that trail was Raphael Warnock. 82 % of evangelicals voted for Donald Trump. Kamala Harris won everybody else 58 to 40. So that will tell you how much the evangelical vote matters. So the Democrats chipping away at that 82-17 margin should be a priority. Even if Democrats are not going to win the majority of evangelical voters, they still see an opportunity to try and reach other Christian voters, like mainline Protestants, who make up at least 11 percent of adults in the U.S.

35:11They've often kind of been a swing vote in past elections. We've seen instances where white mainliners in particular have kind of waffled one direction or another in terms of who's in the pews. It's not enough in this highly polarized time to just be upset at your own side, as we know. There's got to be a reason for you to cross the divide. And that's what many of these Democrats are trying to create, is a reason to cross the divide. America is still a really religious country.

35:44Up next, John King's Battleground State Tour hits Pennsylvania. We're live in the Keystone State next.

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36:32Okay, John King has been coming to us every day this week in his five-day swing through election days. You look at that now, you see where he's been, and guess where he is today? The Keystone State, Pennsylvania. This has been testing Republican congressmen on the ballot. Four incumbents are in competitive races there. And it's also a question about the incumbent Democratic governor. How big will the margins be, assuming that the polls hold and he does win against his Republican challenger, Stacey Garrity? John joins us from Bethlehem. It's fascinating because I was with Josh Shapiro over the weekend, and he says that he's convinced that the House majority for Democrats will run through Pennsylvania.

37:16You're in one of those districts they're hoping to flip. Right. I am, and the governor has a point as we go through this. No big Senate race here. The governor's race is worth watching, but there are four districts here, as you showed, that are absolutely critical to the Democrats' math of trying to retake the House of Representatives. And let's walk through them. I'm going to show you the 2024 results. So the opponents, I'm going to show you, they're not the Democrats running now. I think you showed them coming in to me, but let's just go through them. I'm in the 7th district right now. The incumbent, Ryan McKenzie, he won by just 4 ,000 votes in a presidential here in Pennsylvania.

37:45That race now leans, this race now leans D, leans Democratic, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, steel, manufacturing, blue collar. That's what this district is about. And then, Danny, you move up here to the north, the 8th district. Let me turn off the stylus there for a minute a bit. Rob Bresnahan, he won by a little over 6 ,000 votes. The challenge for the Democrats here, the popular Democratic mayor of Scranton is their candidate. Run it up in the biggest city in this district. But this is what I'm fascinated by. The rural areas up along the New York border. Can Democrats start to have a rebound in rural America?

38:16If they can, then maybe they can flip this district back and they would get this one. And now let's look at some of the other targets in Pennsylvania as you come out. Democrats would absolutely love, and this one in most of the rankings leans Democrat now. Democrats would love to defeat Scott Perry. He has been a nemesis for some time. Conservative in the Freedom Caucus, key ally of President Trump, and as you know also one of the people who tried to promote election denialism here in Pennsylvania and elsewhere with President Trump. They would love to win that one. And we're going to end our day, Dana, in the toughest of them all for the Democrats.

38:44That's the first district. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of only three House Republicans whose district was carried by Kamala Harris in the presidential election. But look at this. He won it in a presidential year, even though Harris was winning it, by nearly 60 ,000 votes. So Fitzpatrick has proven to be a survivor. Democrats are hoping that the national climate is so bad this year that they can finally get him. But we'll see on Tuesday. Yeah, there's even Democrats say that that is definitely going to be their toughest to flip. More broadly beyond the House, what are you looking for? or what dynamics in Pennsylvania will give us any clues about the national mood on Tuesday?

39:21Number one, where it is on the map will help us a lot about the national mood because it closes early. The earlier poll closings, we just mentioned those four battleground house districts. We're going to know, you know, nine, ten o 'clock at night, we're going to know. Are Democrats having a decent night, a good night, or a wow night? One of the places will be where I am here in the 7th District, right? I just come out of here. Let me come back to Pennsylvania and come over. You come in here. The district I'm in right now is about 20 % Latino, and that's focused here mostly in the Allentown area.

39:47This will be the first test. Latinos built toward Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, 2024. Are they swinging back in a big way? We will get the first clue right here in Pennsylvania. Another thing I want to point out is in that Fitzpatrick district we're talking about right here. Is it a blue night or a blue wave night? Well, if Fitzpatrick is in trouble, if it's very, very close or if Democrats can beat him, that could be an indication that you are getting a big blue wave if they can knock off somebody who won by 60 ,000 votes last time. And lastly, I'll come back to the point you made. In the days after the election, there'll be a lot of conversation about Pennsylvania.

40:20Number one, how big? If Josh Shapiro wins, as the polls show, how big did he win by? And what does that say about his prospects in 2028? Did he show his muscle here in Pennsylvania? And one other possibility being talked about here and being talked about in your old haunts up on Capitol Hill, Well, what, this is a hypothetical, but what if it ends up 51 Democrats in the Senate? The Democrats get a one seat majority in the United States Senate. Then John Fetterman, the Democratic incumbent from Pennsylvania, who sometimes votes with the Republicans, sometimes says nice things about the president of the United States, Republicans would like him to switch party.

40:53If it ends up 51-49, John Fetterman is going to become a very, very important person in American politics like that. Yeah, he sure will. I mean, he already is. As he has said, point blank, he will never be a Republican. The question is whether or not he will become an independent and what that will mean if he does do that. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Enjoy the Keystone State. Thank you so much for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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