Dems Path To Senate Majority Getting Wider 

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0:45Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. The Democrats' path to a Senate majority getting wider. We have a brand new CNN analysis of the races most likely to flip from red to blue. I'm Manu Raju, in for Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:22There are just 29 days until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates, and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. So here's what's on our midterm radar. Today, President Trump and Vice President Vance are both campaigning on GOP turf. They're trying to boost incumbent Republican senators in Nebraska and Alaska. It's the president's fifth red state stop in less than a week. And throughout the swing, he keeps brushing aside concerns about the issue dominating this election. That's the rising cost of living. A new CBS poll finds 70 % of registered voters think President Trump's policies are driving up food and grocery prices.

2:05Now to Texas, where the latest pitch for Republican Ken Paxton is actually coming from an unlikely messenger of sorts. That's his estranged wife, Texas State Senator Angela Paxton, who's divorcing him amid allegations of adultery. Here's part of an ad from Texas PAC.

2:37Angela Paxton never mentions her husband's name. And the top crypto super PAC is revealing which congressional candidates it will support. According to the AP, Fair Shake is backing 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats. That includes three lawmakers from each party getting a million dollars each. All 32 Fairshake House picks supported legislation that's important to the crypto industry. But this is pocket change compared to the Ohio Senate race, where Fairshake is spending an enormous amount of money, nearly$30 million, to defeat Democrat Sherrod Brown. And creepy, weird, disturbing garbage. That's how one California Republican candidate is describing a sexually suggestive campaign video from Steve Hilton, the GOP candidate for governor.

3:27Here's part of the online video that multiple Republicans are denouncing. I've just never done anything like this before. Like, what if my dad finds out? Just try it. Look, give me your hand. Close your eyes.

3:47and I'll do all the work.

3:54Hilton says the ad targets Californians who want change but are wary of voting Republican. And he said the idea it upsets anyone, quote, grieves me. I'm joined now by a terrific group of reporters who have been all over the midterm election cycle and have been through the states and have been following the campaigns. And we're going to start off about this new analysis that, Arlette, you have been central in trying to figure out where things stand in the overall race for the majority. Things keep shifting, polls keep coming out, and now we have some new numbers about where things are shifting.

4:29Let's look at where, how we projected CNN did in terms of the seats most likely to flip. That was, on your left is September. As you can see on your screen, September on your left, now on your right. There's been some shift. Ohio, the big one here, going from fourth likely to flip to the second likely to flip. Of course, that's where the incumbent Republican Senator John Huston is battling to hang on. Trump was campaigning with him on Saturday. Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic senator, trying to win that seat, picking one up for the Democrats. Maine, going down two slots there to the fourth most likely to flip, the incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, battling to hang on against Democrat Troy Jackson in that race.

5:11And now we are moving also Alaska, moving up that list, most likely to flip. That's another incumbent Republican, Dan Sullivan, getting the help from J.D. Vance today. Mary Paul told the Democrat there in the race, winning some key polling that's just out. Michigan, Republicans had hoped to pick up Michigan, but now it is down to number six. Let's see if they ultimately do. These are all, I should caution, these are all still very close races. A lot of them are still within the margin of error. we could see this shift more and more as we get closer to Election Day. Arlette, what's your big takeaway here?

5:44Yeah, to your point about things could definitely shift. I think number one, North Carolina, and number 10, Georgia, are the two that are perhaps most firmly on this list. Democrats are feeling quite good about their chances in both states. But that two through nine, we could really see a lot of movement over the next four weeks. I think in addition to some of the movement that we've seen in Ohio, Alaska, and Texas, we are also putting a new state on this map. and that is Kansas. There is some rising anxiety about Kansas, which is a state that Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024. But the Democrat Adam Hamilton is really giving the incumbent Senator Roger Marshall a run for his money here.

6:25We know that one of the biggest Republican super PACs is shifting$14 million to the state in the final week. The New York Times poll actually had Hamilton and Marshall tied. And so there is a potential that this is a lot more competitive than people may have predicted at the beginning of the segment. And to that point, here's the New York Times, CNN Polls from out this weekend. As you can see in the middle of the screen there, 45-45, no clear leader in that race. In several of those other races, no clear leader in Iowa and in Ohio. Alaska, you see that they have a lead for Mary Patel, 50-43 against Dan Sullivan.

7:01How do you see these rankings, Tia? Do you agree with this analysis about the shifting nature of this map? Well, yes, because Arlette's amazing. Agree with whatever she said. I've never disagreed with Arlette. But I will say what I found so interesting, what you're pointing out, is the Michigan and the other Democrat, New Hampshire, that they're both going down. Thank you for the assist. Both going down to be less likely to flip. And that, again, is good news for Democrats because there were concerns, you know, after the primaries, coming out of the primaries, that maybe Democrats had had lackluster candidates or that Republicans perhaps had stronger candidates in these races.

7:47And again, because the thing is, Democrats don't just have to flip seats. They have to hold on to the ones they already have. Yeah, and I think this is why New Hampshire Senator Gene Shaheen and Michigan Senator Gary Peters probably felt comfortable retiring this cycle, as they were predicting the wind was going to be at their backs regardless of what kind of candidate they ended up with. And to your point in Michigan, there were a lot of fears that Abdul El-Sayed was not going to be as strong in the general election as Haley Stevens would be against Mike Rogers, who is, I think, objectively a pretty good recruit for Republicans to get him to run again.

8:16But he lost in 2024 narrowly to Alyssa Slotkin, and the polls are showing some separation for Abdul El-Sayed now. So they are definitely feeling better about those seats that they need to hold. And speaking of New Hampshire, we actually have a piece of mine from later in the show. I spent time with Sununu and Chris Pappas. Chris Pappas is very much concerned still about the amount of Republican money coming in. And we're seeing that all across the country. He wants us all to know that, too, right? Absolutely he wants us all to know that. And Republicans, this is the story of the last few weeks, the amount of money that's coming in.

8:46And the question is going to be, is that working? is the Republican money, particularly a place like Texas, where we have seen, I mean, Republicans, we're estimating, they're spending about$10 million per week since the beginning of September to try to bolster Ken Paxton in this race. And the New York Times-Siena poll from over the weekend has it at 51.45 here that Tallarico is winning by six points. You can see the bottom of that list here. That was this one that's outside the margin of error. And then you see the Angela Paxton ad coming to the defense of Ken Paxton, his estranged wife of Ken Paxton, accused, remember what she accused him of back in July.

9:27She said, today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds. Now she's cutting an ad for him. And it's not just her. His daughter is also featured in one of his campaign ads talking about her father. This is Ken Paxton, the vulnerabilities that he has surrounding the controversies that he's had over the past few years are really an issue in this campaign. And Republicans in this final stretch are trying everything that they can to get him across the finish line. I think when you look at all of these races, you know, Democrats feel really good about the mood and the environment.

9:59The president's approval rating is low. There's a lot of frustration with the economy and his handling of the war with Iran. But Democrats are still running in very red states. And that is a real challenge. And one thing that Democrats also express some anxiety about is the amount of GOP spending that's on the board. Our colleague David Wright, who worked on this piece with me, looked at all the numbers, and Republicans are set to outspend Democrats in eight of the 10 of these states. And that's a lot. And that's a question. Can they sustain this? This is what Tallarico said about the Angela Paxton ad.

10:31He said, asking Texans to close their eyes and vote for a political party instead of the best person for the job is exactly what's wrong with today's politics. Can Tallarico sustain this barrage of anti-Tallarico and pro-Paxton attacks? I think you would start to see the numbers move relatively soon if they're going to move. As you said, they've been running tens of millions of dollars of ads since September now, trying to hit Tallarico and help Paxton. And these polls are still showing the race either close or Tallarico ahead by a little bit. And I just want to quickly, you know, Angela Paxton, her ad saying, you know, vote for the ticket.

11:07It doesn't mention Ken Paxton's name. It doesn't mention Ken Paxton. When you go back to what she said about him directly, it was critical. This man does not honor God. You know, this man is someone that she, you know, publicly split with. And so I think voters are saying, well, which one is it? Yeah, that's a good question. We'll see if this ad campaign actually works. All right. A five alarm fire. That's one Republican's description of the political climate as the president heads to another state he carried by double digits. And later, we'll talk to a Texas Democrat who thinks he can win in addition to Republicans they actually redrew to give themselves the advantage.

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12:56Next stop in the Red State Rescue Mission, Grand Island, Nebraska. It's the first stop in a week where President Trump will also visit Texas again. And Alabama again. And today, the president will rally for Republican Senator Pete Ricketts, who faces independent candidate Dan Osborne in an unexpectedly tough re-election battle. So how will that pitch go? Perhaps something like the president's speech in Ohio this weekend? Just pretend that I'm running. Because if we do, and if you draw the people, you're going to win. Just get out and vote. But if you do that, we're going to win and we're going to win big.

13:32And we're going to shove it up their ass. CNN's Jeff Zeleny is on the campaign trail in Nebraska. So, Jeff, your new reporting today has one Republican calling this a five-alarm fire. Manu, that is a Republican member of Congress from one of the states that President Trump is visiting on this red state tour. And when you look at his week-long travel itinerary, that really tells the story of the entire strategy of the White House, going from Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio, Nebraska, back to Texas as well. All deep red states that Trump won by double digits. But talking to a Republican member of Congress from one of these states, the member says this, this is a five alarm fire.

14:15We always welcome the president, but I don't know if he's aware of the feelings out here. That really sums up the mood one month before the election. You just drive here to the Nebraska State Fairgrounds. You see the diesel price, the gas price, of course, mortgage prices. Farmers are unable to be in the field at harvest season because of a lot of rain, high fertilizer prices. So there is anxiety. There's no question. And as you can see behind me here, there, of course, is a lot of love for President Trump. He carried Nebraska by 20 points just two years ago. But the fact that he's coming here to Grand Island, Nebraska, in the third congressional district, it is the deepest red part of Nebraska.

14:52he is skipping the two competitive House seats in the state in the first and second districts, literally flying over them in Omaha, in Lincoln as well. So that sums up where he is going, where Republicans believe they need him in the final month to try and motivate some of those Trump supporters to pay attention to the midterm elections and come out and vote. But as you said, that Senate race here is much closer than many Republicans had expected. Pete Ricketts running for reelection here, again, against that independent Dan Osborne. So, clearly, Republicans have no room for error. But when the president comes here tonight, Manu, the questions are, is he going to address some of these controversies?

15:30The tariff policy, the beef import policy is very controversial here in cattle country. Nebraska is one of the top cattle-producing states in the country. If you look at the Senate map throughout the Midwest, Iowa, Kansas, Texas as well, also the top cattle-producing states, there is anger out here for the decision to allow beef imports to come in. So all of this is really shaping up to be a complicated midterm election fight for the president. It's why he's on defense here in Trump country. Manu? The story of this midterm election cycle so far, a lot of Republican voters running away from the president, which is one big reason why they're having an issue as we head into November.

16:08Jeff Zeleny from Grand Island, Nebraska, thank you so much. And our excellent reporters are back. So, I mean, Trump, economy, every cycle, it's the economy, right? But what is really remarkable is just how much voters are blaming Trump's policies for making things worse. Just the CBS News poll. Trump's policies are making grocery prices go up 70%. I mean, that is stunning how high that is. But then Trump's message on the campaign shows everything is great. Yeah, I find it interesting that Trump is not seeming to ingest the message that his victory in 2024 proved, which is voters, if they don't feel like the economy is doing well, if they don't feel like they are doing well financially, they will vote you out.

16:58because that's what happened to Joe Biden because Donald Trump said, you don't feel better. You don't feel like the economy's doing well. And this guy keeps telling you, look at all the data. And now he's doing the same thing to quite frankly, the same effect. But the difference is his name isn't actually on the ballot. But other Republicans - He keeps saying that it'd vote like I'm on the ballot, but some Democrats are saying, fine, vote like I'm on the ballot. But to that point, this was Kevin Hassett, the White House, top White House economic advisor just yesterday speaking to Jake Tapper. The fact that there's possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really, really depressed, it's a classic Democrat move, and I just don't buy it.

17:39The economy is booming, and what you have to do is you have to look at the whole picture. I mean, the economy is booming, he says, even as people are suffering because of high prices. That's a challenging message, a challenging thing to reconcile. Yeah, it is, and I think that what Tia was saying exactly about people just aren't feeling any of the economic bright spots that the administration might be pointing to. This is exactly the same as when I covered President Biden and in his White House, they were often talking about, oh, this very rosy picture of the economy, but people just weren't feeling that in their pocketbooks.

18:13What you've heard from the president is that he thinks that the Republican woes right now are due to a messaging problem. That's why he is putting himself - It's so common to hear people say, oh, we're just losing because we're not selling. Always blame the comms people, not the actual policies themselves. But Republican candidates and he, they are all messengers. And he is putting himself front and center right now because he believes that they can drive up that GOP turnout in red-leaning states. That will be one way that Republicans could potentially be victorious. But it's a question of whether candidates are going to balance their love for Trump, love for Republicans with what they're feeling about the economy.

18:49He's blaming the mess and not getting the message out. He's the messenger. He's the chief messenger that's out there. I guess there's someone to blame if things are going wrong here. Burgess, Jim Justice, the Republican senator from West Virginia, freshman Republican, told you that, quote, if you're not worried, you are living in a cave. There's no question that there's people out there that are hurting. I mean, so you're hearing just so much. He's not on the ballot this cycle, but he knows how a lot of Republicans are feeling. Well, and it's a great test case for this. This is like the most conservative state probably.

19:21You know, top three to five Republican state is West Virginia now. And so he's saying that people in his state are feeling apathetic about voting for Republicans because Trump's not on the ballot. And they don't feel like Republicans have taken their economic concerns seriously. So he's not necessarily saying people are fired up for Democrats. He's saying they are not enthusiastic about Republicans. So if Jim Justice in West Virginia is hearing that, you can only imagine what folks in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa are saying. Yeah, it's such a good point. And, yeah, we'll see if the president changes his message at all today in Nebraska.

19:53All right, coming up, can Democrats win back Latino voters in Texas? Democrat Johnny Garcia thinks he can win the Texas 35th, a newly redrawn majority Latino district near San Antonio. He joins me next.

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20:45Texas Republicans thought they could pick up five seats by withdrawing the state's House maps. One of them, the Texas 35th Congressional District. It includes some suburbs of San Antonio and neighboring rural counties. It's majority Latino and voted for President Trump by 10 points in 2024. But Democrats now believe Johnny Garcia, a deputy in the Bexar County Sheriff's Office, can win there anyway. But to do so, he'll have to beat Air Force veteran Carlos de la Cruz, brother of Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz. Johnny Garcia joins me live now. Mr. Garcia, I really appreciate your time this afternoon.

21:21President Trump is coming to your district this week. He's there to campaign in part with your opponent. The president has been saying that voters should pretend like he's on the ballot. Won't that work in a district Trump won by 10 points?

21:39Manu, thanks for having me on. And it isn't going to work. You cannot pretend that these high gas prices don't exist when you go to Buc-ee's and you fill up your gas tank. and you can't walk inside to afford a barbecue sandwich. You can't pretend like the grocery prices at HEB are coming down anytime soon under this administration to include the failure of Senate and House Republicans. And you can't pretend like this war in Iran doesn't exist when we're now having to foot the bill for Senate and House Republicans that are willing to step up to this administration. And it's why I feel so confident that come November, I am going to win this race because I'm clearly running against a Donald Trump wingman who wants to serve him and his administration to include Senate and House Republicans and will just be another rubber stamp for the failures that we're continuing to see here in this district.

22:30Mr. Garcia, there's a new NBC and Telemundo poll that does say that there are nearly 6 in 10 Latino voters nationwide. We actually do prefer Democrats take control of Congress. But there's an important point here. Crucially, your party still has a perception problem. Democrats are still underwater. 42 % of Latino voters view Democrats negatively. That's more than the 41 % who view them positively. So is it a liability to be a Democrat in your district? I don't view it as a liability. Look, currently I'm meeting folks here in this district that are telling me the everyday prices of everything has gone through the roof.

23:12And it's why we're seeing Latinos come back to our party here in South Central Texas. Being able to make it to Sunday to afford your barbaco and Big Red means a whole lot to folks in this district, to include the diesel prices that we're seeing at the gas pumps when we go fill up our vehicles. Folks here in South Central Texas aren't able to make it to work and come back home with the gas prices that we're seeing these days. Folks aren't able to go and fill up their prescription medications these days. And it's why I feel very optimistic. that we're seeing the 16-point swing shift in Latinos come back to our party that's ultimately going to be the deciding factor on November 3rd.

23:49But why do you think there's still a negative perception of your party? Why does that still exist? Are you concerned, for instance, about the leftward shift in your party, the socialist wing in your party? Does that concern you as a Democrat? By all means. What may work in certain areas of the nation regarding DSA isn't going to work here in District 35. Look, I feel very optimistic because we know that the Democratic Party got it wrong here in South Central Texas during this last administration, during the 2024 election. We got to see how Democrats failed us here on the border. But we're also seeing that this targeted enforcement that is continuing to go after everybody else but the criminals.

24:35These are the things that people feel very strongly about to include our builders here in this district that are just fed up with not only the tariffs, but the targeted enforcement that is affecting our construction sites here in Texas. And that's why I know. Yeah, I'm sorry. I'm sorry to interrupt. But I want to I want to ask you about that point specifically about immigration enforcement, because there have been growing calls in your party to abolish ICE, and that's going to be a huge issue if Democrats do recapture the House. You have resisted those calls to abolish ICE. Will you fight your party on this issue if you become a House member?

25:12Absolutely. As a sheriff's deputy that has served in protecting my community for nearly two decades, I understand how important it is to have a strong border and keep our community safe. But under this administration and with the failure of Senate and House Republicans on their failures to use ICE to keep our community safe, they're continuing to go after everybody but the hardened criminals. They've targeted five-year-old kids like Liam Ramos, high school-age students that are nearly two weeks away from crossing the stage. This isn't what targeted enforcement looks like. And as a sheriff's deputy, the only one running in the nation for Congress, I'm going to bring this unique skill set with me to make sure that we're not defunding law enforcement, but we're actually fighting for and championing public safety to keep our community safe here in Texas.

26:01Has Trump done a good job securing the border? I think folks feel that the attention placed on the border has been different under this administration versus how it was in 2024. But we're also seeing that tariffs are wrecking our economy. They're hurting businesses to include our barbecue restaurants and those folks that are trying to make housing more affordable. And it's why we need change come November 3rd. And the only way to do so is by helping us across the finish line. And I'm urging everybody here watching this interview to please visit votejohnnygarcia.com because it's going to take everybody supporting my campaign for us to win back the House majority this midterm election.

26:45If you do win your race, your first vote will be the next House speaker. Would Hakeem Jeffries have your vote? He will. He's doing a tremendous job with the minority as we're in right now. He's doing everything to make sure that the issues that are affecting everyday families is our priority. And when we win the midterm election, we're going to have to end these tariffs. We're going to have to make health care more affordable. We're going to have to make sure that we're not creating and pushing our nation's troops into more forever wars. These are the issues that are affecting working class families here in my district.

27:26And it's why I feel very strongly that I'm going to win this race. All right. Well, Johnny Garcia, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you so much for your time this afternoon. And we have invited his Republican opponent, Carlos de la Cruz, to join us, too. We hope to have him on before the election. All right. Coming up for us, President Trump campaigned on releasing the Epstein files, but now his fellow Republicans are feeling the brunt of the administration's bungled release. That's next.

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28:39Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. The House Democratic campaign is up with a new ad today bringing back one of President Trump's biggest liabilities, his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. And this features a highly personal story.

29:14My sister, Virginia, was one of Jeffrey Epstein's victims. She spent her life trying to expose the truth. After she died, we promised to carry on her fight. But our own congressman, Jeff Crank, refused to meet with us. Then, when he had the chance to expose the truth and release the Epstein files, he repeatedly voted to cover them up. J.P. Congressman Jeff Crank is trying to fend off Democrat Jessica Killen in the Colorado Springs area district. The Cook Political Report rates it as lean Republican. My excellent reporters are back. So, Arlette, you've been on the trail a lot talking to voters about this issue about the Epstein files, the release of the Epstein files, how Trump has handled it.

29:55Is this an effective strategy? Does this actually resonate with voters beyond the Democratic base? I think that when I talk to voters out on the trail, so many people are pointing to the economy. I think that efforts like this try to put Epstein front and center. It's trying to make this argument that it's the economy and other issues. We know that for Republicans, there was a lot of frustration with the fact that the Epstein files weren't immediately released as the president had promised. He had downplayed a lot of the conversation around that. So this is for Democrats, certainly an area where they could try to make a play for additional votes.

30:29I was also taking a look before we came on the air through ad impact. And there are close to 70 Epstein related ads that are running just this year. So Democrats certainly feel that this is something that they can push forward. And it also plays into the corruption messaging that we've heard from a lot of Democratic candidates. Yeah, what I'm saying and Senator Ossoff actually does this to great effect. What he says is that Epstein was a distraction away from the economic issues, that Republicans under Donald Trump and the Epstein class, as Ossoff calls it, were so focused on protecting their own, protecting the rich, protecting the powerful and forgetting about the little guy.

31:10And so that's what I think is the message that becomes effective, kind of similar to what Trump did in 2024 forward with making the immigration crackdown an economic message. So they take the Epstein files and they say, because Republicans were so focused on protecting the powerful, they weren't focused on what you want them to care about, which is the economy and the cost of living. And so that's where I think it does kind of connect to the greater issue that is top of mind for voters. And this ad, while there have been a lot of ads that have referenced Epstein or as Tia, you're saying about how Ossoff has just kind of sprinkled this into his messaging against the Republicans.

31:53What's different here is that you have an ad of Virginia Dufresne's family looking direct to camera, making that kind of appeal. Actually, I was told by Democrats that this is a first time that they've actually done an ad like this where the family is talking direct to camera. and this specific race. They have ties to this Colorado Springs district. They're actually having a press conference this afternoon with the Democratic candidate, Jessica Killen. This is a Trump plus nine district, Burgess. How do you see this playing in a Republican-leaning district, and can other Democrats use this to their advantage?

32:28Well, we're talking about who's unpopular, right? The Democratic Party is not popular. Donald Trump's not popular. Who's the least popular figure in American politics? It's got to be Jeffrey Epstein. And so linking a Republican like Jeff Crank, who has this personal connection, they're calling him out for not meeting with the victims, families. You know, you can see that this is this is just another way of tying Republicans to someone who is not popular and dragging them down. But to go back to what you all both said, when I talk to folks about what they're most worried about in the Republican Party, it's economy, economy, economy and the Iran war.

33:00I don't hear them worried about the Jeffrey Epstein attacks hurting them. So I do think that's an interesting wrinkle here. Yeah, no question about that. We're going to have to go to break because coming up, if Democrats want to win the Senate, they have to hold the line in New Hampshire. When you get desperate, you'll say anything. My report from the Granite State Trail. That's next.

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34:14This is the nightmare scenario for Democrats. They have a great night on November 3rd, but something goes wrong, and that's here in New Hampshire. And that's because of John Sanu, the former Republican senator. Someone who's trying to win his seat back after losing in 2008, now going up against Congressman of eight years, Democrat Chris Pappas. Are you worried, you know, Sununu's name obviously goes a long way here in this day. Oh, yes, absolutely. There's a lot of Sununus, but we're done with Sununus. Sununu is trying to battle all of the headwinds that Republicans are facing across the map, particularly here in the Northeast, a state, a bluish state, a place that Donald Trump has lost three times.

34:55But Sununu has a different brand. He is someone who comes from a political dynasty of sorts in New Hampshire. His father was a governor. His brother was a governor. He is a former senator, and that name still carries some weight. How hard is it to run against that brand? Yeah. Well, he doesn't put his first name on his signs because he's hoping to stoke the confusion about which Sununu's on the ballot. You think that's a strategy? Well, yeah. His brother was governor for eight years, was a popular, pretty moderate governor. on balance. John is a much more conservative guy, was down the line for George W.

35:31Bush when he was our senator before. Are you trying to confuse voters? No, that's the most, look, I'm using the same signs I've ever used. That's actually a very silly question, Manu. He said it, I didn't say it. Well, they're running ads about it too. Look, when you get desperate, you'll say anything. And the fact of the matter is, I'm running ads with my picture, my voice, talking to the people of New Hampshire about how I'm going to tackle affordability. Even with several GOP seats in their reach, it's two Democratic seats causing them deep anxiety. As polls show a tight race for the open New Hampshire seat, currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Gene Shaheen, and GOP groups outspending Democrats here and nearly everywhere.

36:19Democrats see an expanding map. Should they think twice before trying to throw money into other states and focus on the seat they need to keep? I think the majority won't be flipped if we don't hold this seat in New Hampshire. Right now we're being outspent anywhere from two to three to one on TV and on digital. And that's the situation that most Democratic candidates are facing across the country. On the airways in New Hampshire are many GOP attacks like these. Chris Pappas looked voters in the eye and lied. Pappas dated an Amazon lobbyist, voted on bills that Amazon lobbied on. Should you have done something differently, voted differently, recused yourself, disclosed your relationship, anything like that?

37:02It's been seven years since he had that job, and my votes are always for the people of New Hampshire. So, you know, I disclose everything, I follow all the rules, and I'm going to continue to do that. And what's really rich is you have$60 million coming into New Hampshire's Senate race from Trump, from Elon Musk, that want to maintain control of the U.S. Senate. For Pappas, who once ran his family's iconic Manchester restaurant, his task is to convince independent-minded voters that he's not tarnaged by the image of his own party, including in the town of Salem, where Trump won three times. I'd like to tell you that I really have a very strong supporter of the Pappas agenda, but I don't think he has always served us well as well.

37:48Why do you say that? That's why it's a toss-up. I think it's very easy to get caught up in the partisan politics and be more interested in representing your team than your state. Is the Democratic brand toxic here in New Hampshire? It's not in a good place nationally. But what New Hampshire voters know is that I'm a different kind of Democrat. They see me as someone who's a small business owner, who's a community member. Not part of the national party. It's separate from the national party. Who's been a pragmatic voice in Congress. And I've stood up to my party, as I've mentioned, on issues where they're wrong.

38:26Chris Pappas very much trying to make this race about cost of living. Here in the nation's largest pin maker. They're hearing concerns about the impact that tariffs and the Iran war are having on their bottom line. Frankly, everything that's been promised not only hasn't been delivered, but Trump has done the reverse of what he's promised to do. So I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty big swing towards blue. Now, Democrats, they're trying to turn the focus to Sununu's career after he lost his Senate race in 2008 when he worked as a policy advisor for the D.C. firm Akin Gump. After voting for special interests, he got kicked out of the Senate and spent the next 15 years cashing in.

39:04And I caught up with Sununu here at a county fair in Deerfield, New Hampshire, a Republican stronghold. Are people concerned here about the revolving door of politics? I'm an engineer by training. I worked in manufacturing, technology, ran the operations of a manufacturing company in Manchester successfully before I was elected to Congress. After leaving the Senate, I've gone back to technology. Look, I'm very proud of the work I've done in the private sector. I've never lobbied any member of Congress on any issue for any company, and Chris Pappas knows that's true. Even though Sununu backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary, he even wrote an op-ed bashing Trump with a headline that said, Trump is a loser.

39:48Trump did give Sununu his endorsement this cycle, giving Sununu a big boost in that Republican primary. You also wrote an op-ed in 2024 with the headline that said, Trump is a loser. Do you stand by what was said in that piece, really criticizing him? Sure. Look, I didn't support Donald Trump in 2016. I didn't support him in 2024. Yeah, I supported Nikki Haley. So this is New Hampshire. You stand up for the candidate that you believe in. And my focus, again - But he supported you, Trump. He endorsed me, although, frankly, I've never met him. You've never met him, never talked to him? No, no, no.

40:27I think he knew I was going to win the race. Nobody loves a good batting average better than the president. And look, if the president pushes policies that I think are bad for New Hampshire, I'll oppose him. If he pushes policies that I think are good for New Hampshire, I'll support them. And now Sununu is careful in how he navigates the Trump factor in this blue-leaning state. Do you think, though, when it comes to Iran and tariffs, should the president end the Iran war? Should he end his war with Canada on tariffs? Look, I said from the very beginning it was a mistake to go in when we didn't have a plan for keeping the straight open.

41:01The focus now needs to be get the straight moving, get the oil commerce flowing. I think our allies in the region could be doing even more to support that. And look, we never should have picked a trade fight with Canada. And again, you know, that's always been my position because it doesn't make sense for the people here in New Hampshire. Would you vote to limit the president's war powers in Iran if you had a chance? Look, I would support any effort to get us out of Iran, keep the strait open, and again, focus on the source of funding for terrorist proxies in the region. Do you want Trump to campaign with you?

41:40I've said many times, I don't need anyone to come into New Hampshire to campaign for me. Thanks for joining Inside Politics. See you in a new Central starts after a very quick break.

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