Election Countdown: Challenges and Strategies for Republicans

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0:36Stampede. At-risk Republicans flee the president. Higher gas prices and higher diesel prices are having a big impact. As he flies to red states, is out of sight, out of mind? Swing state Republican Congressman Derek Van Orden joins me live. Plus, money pit. It's hard to outrun all the baggage. As the GOP pours millions into Texas. Could it force tough choices and imperil their chances in other states? And deja vu. Kamala's agenda is they, them, not you. Republicans bring back a wave of anti-trans ads. But will it work this time? With everything going on, that's what they're talking about? Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

1:31Good morning and welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. 37 days. That's all that stands between Republicans and Election Day. And they're entering the final stretch with their party increasingly at odds with itself. President Trump's approval ratings have fallen to new lows with polls showing voters alarmed about rising costs and affordability. And as voter perceptions are hardening, Republicans in some of the country's toughest races are now breaking with Trump, trying to put some distance between themselves and a president who could determine their political fate. But could that ultimately hurt them?

2:09Overnight, the president directed his fire towards a Republican congresswoman who's in a competitive race who had recently criticized him on immigration. Still, there are plenty of Republicans sticking with Trump and betting that some key advantages could give them an edge in down-to-the-wire races. There is a lot to unpack this morning with our excellent group of political insiders at the table. Stephen's David Chalian, Jessica Taylor with the Cook Political Report, and Mike Allen with Axios, who's also the co-author of a brand new book called Simplify. Do 50 % more with 50 % less. Good morning to you all.

2:44Happy Badgers come back. Oh, I'm a very good man. I got my Badger Red on after that victory against Penn State. But, you know, we could spend the whole show talking about that. But I'll spare everyone with my delight. David Chalian, you look at the headwinds that the president and his party are facing right now. This is a presidential approval rating in fall of a midterm election cycle. Trump is down at 33 percent all the way at the bottom. Now it's 27 percent, I should say. That's on the economy. Oh, that's on the economy. Yeah, so we have multiple ones. One is that here on the economy at 27%, a big reason why he is now the lowest of any sitting president that we have.

3:25There's of all the presidents from presidential approval rating in fall at this time. How big of a drag is he for the rest of his party at this moment? I mean, a really big drag. And I mean, you look at that chart there, you see he's like 11 points below where Joe Biden was in the 2022 midterms. where they lost the House nonetheless. And they did better than people thought for a midterm year for a president would happen to the Democrats that year. But he's 11 points below that. He is below where he was in 2018. And obviously he lost 40 seats then. Here's the biggest difference. It's the first chart you showed.

4:05The game changer here is the economy. Back in 2018, Donald Trump was unpopular himself, but the country was still giving him credit on the economy. They were largely with him or at least evenly split. So that was a strong suit he could play on the economy, which, you know, is obviously always a top issue for voters. It is even more of a top issue for voters now. And the country has turned away from Trump on the economy. They think his policies are not working them. That is the biggest difference as to why this environment is even more negative, I think, for Republicans, even though they may not lose as many seats because of the map.

4:41it's more negative for Republicans than it was eight years ago. And Manu, I know you're hearing the same thing as you talk to Republican candidates and their camps. What they tell me is the problem is nothing good is going to happen on any of those issues over those 37 days, 37 eternities, as Larry Sabato said it on your air this morning, that the war is not going to end. Like gas prices are not going to go down. In fact, they could go up. Like diesel could get worse. Consumer confidence is not going to come back. Mortgage rates are not going to fall. And so if you're a Republican, you're like, give me some good news.

5:18And they're not seeing it coming. Yeah. And where is Trump going to go? So far, he has campaigned. Remember, he said that he was going to go to 35 competitive districts in the final stretch before the midterms. We've actually only seen him going to a handful of states. Not all those are campaign travelers in North Carolina, one of the Senate battlegrounds there. We'll see if he actually carries through with his promise to go to 35 campaign districts. Hakeem Jeffries, a Democratic leader, told me yesterday he wants Trump in those battleground districts. That's absolutely what he wants. Bring it on.

5:47Exactly. Jessica, you guys haven't analyzed how things are in terms of the full Senate map here. And Cook Political Report shifted three of these races towards Democrats this week. What has changed that has given Democrats? When we started the cycle, it seemed like they had a very little chance of regaining the Senate. How would you handicap their chances now of taking back the Senate? I wrote at the beginning of 2025 that their task was Herculean. Well, Hercules may have arrived because we see the Senate right now as a true toss up. Our range is that Democrats could pick up between one to five seats.

6:19They need four to win the majority. And the fact that Democrats have put seats into play with strong candidates like Ohio, like Alaska, the fact that we shifted Kansas toward Democrats this week just tells you how large the map has gotten. Now, Democrats still have a big problem in Michigan. That is a major seat that is, because of candidate quality, is in play for Republicans. New Hampshire, they cannot look away from. But overall, Democrats are playing offense, and they're playing offense in double-digit Trump states. If they don't win the majority, it's because the map was too tilted against them.

6:55But the fact that, you know, I think back to 2006, when we found in our analysis that an average of 13.6 is how much candidates outran the presidential baseline. If they are able to do that again, approaching 14 points, and it's a state like Iowa that's a 13-point Trump state, Alaska that's a 13-point Trump state, Texas that's a 14-point Trump state, that's why the Senate is very much in play. It's a combination, I think, of strong candidates for Democrats and the headwinds that Donald Trump has faced. And then what about the House? Because you look at the generic ballot. Of course, that's when voters are asked, who do you prefer to control Congress, Democrats or Republicans?

7:28Okay, the CNN poll from this past week had Democrats with an eight-point generic advantage. We'll see if they gain any seats in this midterm. But then you compare it to when the Democratic wave in 2018. They had a 12-point advantage at that point, 41 seats they picked up back then. And the GOP wave, the Tea Party wave from the 2010 midterms, it was a six-point, roughly six-point advantage. And they had a huge wave year. But that was a different environment. The maps were not, the districts were not as gerrymandered as before. So I asked Jeff Rees this yesterday, too. I said, are you concerned that your numbers aren't higher?

8:01Look, all the environment is terrible for the Republicans. Shouldn't you be D plus 12 and beyond? He downplayed the numbers. He said we're in a strong position right now. But is that enough? Is D plus 8 enough, David? Well, when the votes were counted in that midterm in 2018, it ended up being D plus 8. That's sort of what the results were. I know that's not, you're comparing to a poll pre-election. So D plus 8 is probably enough, given they only need to win a net gain of three seats to win the majority. There's no doubt about that. But I think you're making an important point here, Manu, which is, yes, the maps are different.

8:33and things have been structured in a way that perhaps prevent that kind of large thing. But also Democrats, I don't think this election has anything to do with what Democrats have on offer. That's why they don't have an agenda. They haven't put out a big plan that they're running on. Their leaders in Congress are as woefully unpopular as the Republican leaders in Congress with the American people. This is about a rejection of Donald Trump, his policies, and the economy he is overseeing right now by the American people. That's the Iran war. That is what is the weight for the Republicans on the ballot this year.

9:07I don't think it is some rallying. I don't think we're seeing the country rallying around some Democratic vision, which is maybe sufficient to get the majority in this year. But they are going to have a reckoning with the American people to figure out their path forward as soon as this election. I think that's exactly right, because the Biden administration misread 2022 as as as, you know, as being for their policies when it was really it was a repudiation in many ways instead of the fact that they gained seats in the Senate. So I think that Democrats right now, they should not see this as an endorsement of their policy.

9:43That's why their numbers are in the right. Right. We estimate they're going to pick up between five to 15 seats, which is enough for the majority. but it's not just because the House battlefield is smaller, but it's in like R plus six, R plus seven seats right now that they're battling, which is good in this environment. Right. But, you know, again, what is going to happen in 2028 when the party still has an identity crisis? Do they go toward progressive candidates? Do they go toward more centrists? What are they going to do? Yeah. And just before you jump in, Mike, I want to look at how Republicans respond to the question about the impact of the Iran war on the midterm environment.

10:16And the question, two about whether Republicans should embrace Trump and his handling of the war or run away from it. The first two senators that you'll hear from are not on the ballot. The last three are. How much harder does it have made the midterm environment, the Iran war itself and the way he's handling it? I think it has complicated the midterms considerably. Anytime you got economic uncertainty going into October of an election cycle, generally speaking, it's not good. Is it time for the president to bring the Iran war to an end. A country that chants death to America cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

10:52Our people in Alabama know that, you know, they voted for President Trump. They know he, they gave him the opportunity to go back and, and, uh, they're willing to pay higher prices, you think? Yeah, they're, yeah, sure they are. So you'll vote no on war powers. Is that right? Uh, I don't, I don't plan to have America change course until we're successful. So it's an interesting calculation because, yeah, we are We're seeing some distance in some of these swing states, but you hear Senator John Husted, for instance, in one of the biggest battlegrounds in the country, he is deciding that he needs to align himself with Trump on Iran.

11:25No, and we saw in Florida where a candidate moved away from Trump. Now Trump says he's going to go visit the state, so that'll teach him. But we're seeing that the candidates are doing this. But what's important for your viewers is that this is moving fast. Axios had a headline over the weekend that captured it. An insider told us that the Democrats' chances were moving from bad, Republicans' chances were moving from bad to craptastic. And what I'm hearing... Hey, there's the headline right there. Boom. What I'm hearing, Ben's on top of things. What I'm hearing is that Democrats now think that they could get a double-digit majority in the House.

12:06We weren't hearing that very recently. Republicans now telling me 70 % chance. they lose the Senate. That's all moving fast. Now, what Republicans will say is we have more money. If we can get our people out, if we can get out those infrequent Republican voters, it'll be a different story. Yeah. And we'll talk about the money coming up next. But also we're talking about China's latest panda diplomats arriving in the U.S. this morning. We'll have more on that in just a few minutes. Plus, as I just said, that amount of money Republicans are dropping in Texas in particular, truly eye-popping. But the GOP Senate, who now holds that seat, well, he does not have high holds.

12:45Do you think that Paxton is running a good campaign? Well, I think it's hard to outrun all the baggage. Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast, All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. My guest is Lil Jon. He's a rapper, DJ, and producer known for hits like Get Low and Turn Down for What. In February 2026, his 27-year-old son Nathan went missing near Nathan's home in Georgia. Three days later, his body was found in a pond nearby. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me. It takes time to heal, and I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn.

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14:48Going into the final stretch of the Senate race there, Republicans are outspending Democrats an incredible 13 to 1. They plan to spend a massive$66 million on ads from now until Election Day, compared to just$5 million from Democrats. But in a tight race, will that be enough? I caught up one-on-one with Senator John Cornyn, the veteran incumbent Republican who lost in a vicious Republican primary to the Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn unloaded on the GOP candidate. Do you think that Paxton is running a good campaign? Well, I think it's hard to outrun all the baggage. And when you see that, I think the last thing I saw is that less than 100 percent of Republicans intend to vote for him.

15:41That is problematic. and with Indy's independence not supporting him. I mean, it's hard to get to 50 % plus one. Why do you think that he's having such a hard time consolidating Republicans? Well, I think because of all the things we talked about in the primary, which were true. So, I mean, you can spend a lot of money, and there's a lot of money being thrown at the race. but if you have a bad candidate, it's hard to win. And so we'll have to see. I mean, here we are 40 days out. It's going to be hard to change people's minds this late in the game. You said before he was lazy. He disputed that.

16:28Do you still think that? I'll let the evidence. I'll let people decide on their own about that. So you're not planning on helping them at all, fundraising or that? That's correct. Why is that? Well, for all the reasons that we pointed out in the primary. I think the risk for Republicans is if we nominate flawed candidates in November, we risk losing. And we haven't elected a Democrat in Texas statewide since 1990, well, before 1994. And this is the way that majority parties become minority parties by nominating candidates that are less than appealing to a general election electorate. Does he deserve to be a senator?

17:17Say it again. Does he deserve to be a senator? I'll let the voters decide that one. And are you going to vote for him? I'll support the ticket. Not a ringing endorsement. That is a classic piece of tape. And we were joking in the break about leading the witness. But for a Senate Republican to call his successor on camera would be successor. A bad candidate. He just said it. And Karl Rove on camera listing all of the weaknesses of Paxson. And for the first time, we have lots and lots of Republicans saying to us, yes, it's Texas. It's a very, very, very Republican state. But we have such a weak candidate.

18:03That graphic, that was a great graphic. But it is proof you everyone around this table knows this. Despite what you might think from the press coverage, money does not dictate the outcome of a lot of high profile races. And we're seeing this. Tallarico is winning. Yeah, and there's a poll here, Jessica, 50 to 44, a Marist poll. Is that really where the race is at? Do you think that he has a, Tallarico's a six-point lead right now? I was talking with my Republican sources on Friday, and one of them said this week was some of the worst polling that they've ever seen in Texas. And that applies to some of the House.

18:36Praxton is dragging down the entire ticket. He's dragging down. That's what Cornyn warned about. That's exactly what, and now Senate Leadership Fund has had to create the Texas PAC to go in there, just as they warned that they would have to spend$250 million. It may end up being that much. But the governor's race is competitive now because of Paxton. He is just dragging down everything. And I do think that if the election were held today, that Tallarico would probably win. Now, it's not held today. Can they close that gap? I agree with Mike, though. I don't think that the money is everything. And also, Tallarico is probably the strongest fundraiser that Democrats have.

19:12That super PAC money is double the ad rates that Tallarico can get that he's buying at week to week right now. Jessica just reminded me of something that's super important and really speaks to the Republicans' problem. And Texas is exhibit A of this. Pollsters can't get Republicans to answer polls. We're seeing in Texas, Florida, elsewhere. That is a real problem. Yeah, and speaking of money, we take a step back and we look at all the Senate battleground ad spending. Future reservations as of Friday. That means the amount of money they're going to spend from now until Election Day. Still, the Republican advantage is significant.

19:45The Democrats have closed the gap in some states, like in Iowa, a little closer, but still really being significantly outspent in Maine, 38 million bucks to 24 million bucks. In Michigan, almost twice the amount the Republicans are spending over the Democrats. And then in Ohio,$100 million to$55 million in that critical race that Republicans want to hold as well. So money may not be everything, but it's a lot. Well, it definitely is something. And a lot of what that money is being spent on is a message on screens everywhere that Democrats are way far outside the mainstream, communism, socialism, trans issues.

20:22Like, that is where that money is being spent. And the question is going to become, does that carry weight with voters? Maybe with some it will, and it will narrow the gap, as you're saying. But it doesn't eradicate the overall political environment that we were talking in the last block that we were in. And one very senior Republican said to me, this election is anger versus fear. So the Republican money is being poured into a message of trying to generate fear about a far too left Democratic Party among their voters in their base versus the anger in the population about the mortgage rates and diesel and gas prices and the war in Iran and their own economic future.

21:00That is an accurate but bleak frame. It's Halloween in America. Money versus the message for me. Democrats have the message on their side that polls overwhelmingly show right now that they are not trusting the president on the economy. But can the money overwhelm that? I think that it can, in some of these states, you know, maybe stop the bleeding a little bit. But maybe Democrats only pick up four seats and not five. Maybe they only pick up three and not four in the Senate. So maybe they're able to keep the majority there. But I mean, in the House, we're seeing some similar just, you know, torrent of spending, too.

21:34But again, I think that when you look at what voters are saying they want to be done, it's on the economy. And Trump is focused on everything but the economy. Which is why the map is expanding. And we talked about Kansas. There was an ad that the Democratic candidate, Adam Hamilton, put out going after Roger Marshall. He's an OBJYN. He's the incumbent Republican senator. There was a story in The New York Times about him filing lawsuits over some of his patients' unpaid bills, and Hamilton's seizing on that. One evening, I see lights. I open the door, and it's a police officer. They arrested me because I didn't make a$50 payment to Roger Marshall.

22:15I mean, is that, I mean, is Kansas truly in play? Kansas is truly in play. There's something happening in the Midwest. There's a lot of similar to Iowa, where I think the states have been hit uniquely hard by tariffs, by their products are not being sold overseas, that agriculture is being hit hard because it's not just gas prices, it's diesel prices, it's fertilizer prices that are being impacted. And I think then you have a strong candidate like Adam Hamilton, who is a pastor of the largest Methodist church in the country. He's obviously a good orator. He's talking about governing from the middle.

22:48I think that initially Marshall was kept, was caught sleeping a little bit. I think he's sort of woken up, but there's money, there's real money that might have to be put into Kansas right now. So, I mean, Marshall still has the advantage and it's still a 16-point Trump state, but it's certainly a race worth watching. Again, if you'd have told me this time last year that we'd be talking about Kansas, I would have laughed at you. Yeah, I mean, which is one reason why the vice president was just there not so long ago. All right, coming up next, Democrats need to win in Trump districts if they want to take back the House.

23:21But can they do that in rural Wisconsin? We're at the magic wall with David Chalian and the stakes of one crucial toss-up race. And I'll speak to the Republican congressman fighting for re-election there. How is he navigating the pressures his party is facing?

23:40To take back the House, Democrats need to win in districts carried by President Trump. That includes in a bellwether district in a bellwether state, specifically Wisconsin's third congressional district, represented by Republican Derek Van Orden since 2023. I'll speak with him live in just a moment. But first, David Chalian is at the magic wall to show us why this district is so crucial in the fight for the majority. David? Yeah, Manu, take a look here. So this is Wisconsin. After the 24 election, six Republicans in their congressional delegation, two Democrats. Let's go into the third district here on the western side.

24:15of the state. You see, in 2024, this was the result. Derek Van Ordern got 51.4 % of the vote in his re-election battle against Rebecca Cook. And it's a rematch this year. These are the same two candidates on the ballot this year. Look at how President Trump did in this district back in 2024. He beat Kamala Harris by more than seven percentage points. And if you go back to 2020, what you see here, he actually, Trump expanded his margin of victory in this district in the the last presidential election. It was much closer, about five points or so, with Joe Biden in 2020. I want to show you also, Manu, here some of the demographics of the district that point to why this is potential fertile ground for Republicans, but Democrats are still very much in the hunt here.

25:01It's an 89.2 % white district, so the makeup there. And if you look at the education level in the third district in Wisconsin. 71.5 % have no college degree. So heavily white, no college degree, rural district. It's got some pockets of blue in urban areas, no doubt, that makes it a real battleground. And it's a rematch from two years ago that was a very narrow race in a very different political environment this time. Yeah, no question about it. And the district that actually did, Barack Obama had won as well, a bellwether district. And I'm joined by the congressman representing that district, Congressman Derek Van Orden.

25:36Congressman, good morning to you. I appreciate you being here. As you know, a midterm cycle for a president's party, it can be pretty grim. And now you're dealing with the war in Iran, not very popular. Gasoline and diesel prices are still very high. The president's poll numbers are not good. How tough is the environment for Republicans on the ticket? Well, I mean, you can't deny that gas is too high right now and diesel is too high. You just can't do that. You know what I mean? We live in a rural district and it's raining outside. It's beautiful. You've got to acknowledge the environment right now.

26:11But we're going to win this district and this is why, Manu. We're just going to tell the truth about who Rebecca Cook is, who I am, and my record. Rebecca Cook wants to defund the police. She wants trans surgeries for children. She wants men in women's locker rooms and on their sports teams. She wants to open the borders and provide free medical care for illegal aliens. This is not who we are here in the third congressional district. She wants to raise your taxes because she said the Working Families Tax Cut Act was absurd. She's been railing against it forever. We'll get a play. That's no tax on tips.

26:45You are a badger. And so you know that you watched the badger game and the pack game in a tavern in the state of Wisconsin. I don't think the ladies that are working there and the men that are working there should have to pay any taxes on their tips. I don't think our hardworking tradesmen and women should be paying any taxes on their overtime. I don't think the seniors that built our country should be paying taxes on their social security. I'm thrilled that we finally got rid of the death tax because that's what's been killing our family farms here in the state of Wisconsin. And Rebecca Cook wants all of those taxes put back on the American people.

27:17And here's who I am. I'm a retired SEAL senior chief with 26 years of service, multiple combat tours. I'm a father and a grandfather. I was a small business owner. And I'm responsible for getting rid of all those taxes for you. I'm also a key component in making sure that Wisconsin BadgerCare has an additional billion dollars a year. That's our Medicaid program. That's who I am. That's who she is. That's why we're going to win. Yeah, and she was defending her record on our air earlier this week. I do want to ask you about— And she lied about it. I do want to ask you, though, about a new CNN poll out this week that found only 33 % of Americans do approve of how Trump is handling his job as president.

27:53Is he a drag in your district? president trump won this district three times in a row president trump was responsible for closing the border and uh deporting millions of criminal illegal so are you fully are you fully embracing him thousand families monon monon there's over 22 000 families this year that will not have to attend a funeral because their loved one didn't die of a fentanyl overdose that's a direct result of President Trump. And yes, I am fully supportive of President Trump. And if that's not popular, you know, that's just the way it is. The man has secured our board. Do you want him to come campaign in your district for you?

28:34Oh, yeah. President Trump's always welcome here right now. Okay. Absolutely. I encourage the entire administration to come to this district because we represent rural America. Over 93 % of all tillable land money is represented by Republicans. And that's why they need to come to the third congressional district. We represent rural America. We are America here. We know that. Yeah. Your constituents, as we talked about, a lot of them are farmers and a lot of them are paying the price for the Iran war. I mean, diesel prices in Wisconsin are up more than a dollar compared to just last month, Congressman, and more than$3 compared to this time last year.

29:11Are you okay with your constituents eating the cost from this war? well mona it's much more nuanced than that you got to remember there's a massive spike in diesel prices as soon as uh russia invaded ukraine due to joe biden's strategic weakness we have refineries across the country we have multiple blue states have shut refineries down across the country that's leading to an increase in this also and there's just thank god the uh diesel plant refinery just reopened in Illinois. We've had two of our refineries in the Midwest shut down recently. One just opened again. That's leading to a spike in these prices.

29:50But you can't deny that the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, I mean, that's leading to the increase in fuel prices, including in your district. Are you okay with your constituents eating those costs? Manu, that is a partial reason for the increase. And no, I'm not okay with Americans paying more for gas and diesel. I'm just not. So should the war end? Should the president end the war to help your constituents? So Manu, listen. Over 50 years ago, these radical Muslim mullahs took over our embassy and held Americans hostage for 444 days. And they've been able to hold the world economically hostage by closing the Straits of Ramos willy-nilly with just conventional weapons.

30:31So if the Iranian radical Muslim mullahs ever got nuclear weapons, our decision matrix becomes binary. You either get involved in a nuclear war with these people because they'll get in a nuclear war, or you permanently secede 20 % of the world's petrochemicals to these radical Muslim mullahs. So you want him to continue with this strategy. The president has said, according to the Wall Street Journal, that he may continue bombing after the midterm elections. He may continue bombing Iran. Would you be okay with that? here's what I'm not okay with, Monty. I'm not okay with these radical Muslim mullahs ever having nuclear weapons.

31:09And I'm not okay with permanently seceding 20 % of the world's petrochemicals to these radical Muslim mullahs who hate us. They hate you. They chant death to America in the streets. And we're supposed to pretend like this is okay. So is this politically convenient right now? Absolutely not. Does it need to take place so that my grandchildren aren't fighting the same war? Yes. I do want to ask one last question, Congressman. The debate over data centers is also critical in your race. The president has said that concerns over AI are a hoax. He said that communities that reject data centers will end up, quote, backwards and poor.

31:45Do you agree with that? This is the question you should be asking your colleague, Dana Bash. Why did she not push back on Rebecca Cook when she looked straight into the camera and lied about her involvement with data centers? Rebecca Cook is a senior visiting fellow and the third way she's also on board with this. I'm asking you about Trump. I'm asking you about Trump's. Rebecca Cook is also on the Wisconsin Tech Council. She's been paid tens of thousands of dollars to build data centers on pristine Wisconsin farmland. So I'm running against Rebecca Cook. I'm not running against Donald Trump. So Donald Trump is the president of the United States.

32:20But Rebecca Cook is a cocktail communist who's trying to weasel her way into a congressional seat when it would be devastating for America. So that's who I'm running against. And she flat out lied to your colleague, Dana Bash, on air. That's shameful. Well, we're going to have to leave it there. I was asking you about Trump's position on that and what he said as well. But as you said, you're embracing Trump in this race. Congressman Van Orden, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much for joining me this morning. Thanks, Manu. Great to see you. God bless you and your viewers. I appreciate it. Thank you.

32:52All right, coming up, new reports of AI agents going rogue and meddling with government websites, reigniting the debate over an AI slowdown. And two pandas, while they get their first taste of southern hospitality, will have a first look of their big arrival.

33:12With just over five weeks to go until November 3rd, AI continues to be a hot button on the campaign trail as new alarming reports keep coming in. Like this weekend, OpenAI saying its agents went rogue and targeted three U.S. government websites over the summer. Sam Alton, the head of OpenAI, said the company had, quote, not been as fast as they would have liked in disclosing these incidents. My panel of insiders is back, including Mike Allen with this excellent new book, Simplify. Do the right work, not more work. AI is a classic case where we thought it was going to save us time. Instead, we're inundated with Dex.

33:51Yeah. And you guys, and Mike, you have this story in Axios about how AI companies are probing tens of thousands of these incidents. So the extent of this is happening. We don't really know the extent of these attempted hacks. No, 100%. So this is great reporting up from Axios, Matty Mills. Tens of thousands of incidents from the frontier labs that they're looking into where the agents have gone rogue or have done something suspicious. And why this matters is that the order of magnitude of this problem is infinitely worse than was realized on the outside. Now reality check, it's never going to be zero, but the scale of this raises real question of whether the labs can control their own technology.

34:35It's the first invention in the history of the world where they're trying to figure out how the thing that they invented works. And look at the polls on this issue. Which party is better on AI policies? The question was asked in a CNN poll that came out. Just neither party. Voters don't like either party's handling of this. 54 % say neither. And then the importance of this issue of AI in data centers for the midterm vote, 87 % say this is important. I mean, that is pretty staggering. Yeah, interesting. It has been an issue fast on the rise, both in terms of salience and in terms of opposition from the data center piece specifically from voters.

35:16It has been injected into almost every campaign as a campaign issue. In a way, when this campaign season started, I don't think people anticipated. And you're still watching how it scrambles the politics. It doesn't cut cleanly on party lines. And so it scrambles the politics a little bit. And you're watching politicians, as always, playing catch up. One place this is playing out is in Ohio. The Ohio Senate race, Sherrod Brown has been attacking Senator John Husted over this issue. There's a bill that's coming up in the United States Senate this week, a bill that passed overwhelming, almost unanimously in the House.

35:45Now it is John Husted's bill. It's called the Ratepayer Protection Act. It is designed to help try to ensure that data centers pay for all energy costs and grid updates. The Democrats are planning to block this in the Senate because they say it doesn't go far enough. Listen. We're trying to lower electricity prices by passing the Ratepayer Protection Act, which would demand that data centers build their own electricity, and the Democrats are blocking it. Senator Husted's bill is a fraud. It's voluntary. No company has to do it. The bill we have is mandatory. Could this turn the Senate race, this issue?

36:22I mean, I think Brown has been probably one of the most effective people at using this as a cudgel in a race. He was out very early hitting Husted on this. And I think sort of the opinions of Husted are baked in. I mean, Husted is pushing back on Brown, saying he's a career politician. But I think Husted's bill isn't enough. We'll see. It's a very, very close race. But I think that Brown, again, he was out first issue. I'm seeing this coming up in so many governor's races that we've seen, like Texas. Greg Abbott changing his position, looking to 2028. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. Like, this is just a cross-partisan issue that I've seen pop up.

36:55And I don't think it's going away. And you've seen that, you know, Greg Abbott recalibrating his position on this issue, too. Yeah. Yeah. And this race is going to be watched by labs, activists, companies. Like, the takeaway from this is going to really shape 2028, because it's going to be such a massive issue headed into 2028. Society, economy, everywhere is going to be reshaped by AI between now and the next presidential election. Yeah. And that's why these candidates are trying to understand what to do, as Washington hasn't reacted and hasn't figured out what it should do about the growth of AI.

37:29All right, coming up. Actually, I should say before we go to break, Atlanta is now in its bamboo era. Overnight, two giant pandas, Ping Ping and Fuxuong, arrived at their new home at Zoo Atlanta. A special delivery came just after Chinese leader Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington. Pandas are on loan from the Chinese government for 10 years. Since 1972, China has used pandas as a tool of diplomacy. Ping Ping is six years old and is said to be very good at climbing trees. Fu Shuang is also about to turn six. Xi is known for finding food very easily. Seems like a good skill to have. All right, who doesn't love pandas?

38:10All right, coming up. It worked for them in 2024. The GOP bringing back culture wars to the forefront for the midterms. But now Democrats are changing their strategy. So what's up with that? That's next.

38:25In the 2024 elections, Republicans made a clean sweep with a lot of help from the culture wars. Their ads of choice, picking on transgender rights. Kamala's agenda is they, them, not you. And in the final stretch of the midterms this year, Republicans are repeating that playbook, attacking Democrats over trans issues, especially related to kids' sports. But unlike what happened in 2024 when then-Vice President Harris stayed largely silent in response to those attacks, new reporting from CNN's Patrick Svitek and David Wright found that this year Democrats are fighting back. Here's the truth. I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools.

39:11Dark money groups are lying about me. We need to protect kids and we need common sense rules to keep sports fair. I want to set the record straight. As a mom, I know that parents just want their kids safe on the playing field and across Arizona. I've always been clear. Boys shouldn't play on girls sports teams. The thing is, in 20 years raising a family here, I haven't heard this issue come up, not once. In the pivotal Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sheridan Brown tried to recenter the conversation after his Republican opponent, Senator John Husted, leaned into trans issues. Brown supports sex change surgery for kids.

39:51Permanent surgical decisions with devastating consequences. The extremists demand it. Sherrod Brown complies. With everything going on, that's what they're talking about? In Ohio, it's against the law to perform transgender surgeries on kids. That's right. It's illegal. John Hughes said, why'd you vote to increase the cost of groceries? To do nothing about the cost of gas. To kick 490 ,000 Ohioans off their health care. So will it work? Our CNN poll this week found that affordability and cost of living are voters' top concerns. As for trans issues, down at the bottom of the pack. That's it for Inside Politics Sunday.

40:29Up next, here at the Union with Jake Tapper and Dan Abbas. Jake's guests include U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Walls, North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

40:46I'm Adi Kurnish. I'm Ari Shapiro and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend. Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer blogger. But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who at this point kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is... Is fashion terrible now?

41:16Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches and then they make it over and over and over again. The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the Internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.