Election Showdown: Inside the Battle for Control

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1:05Riding the wave with just two days to go, the president tries to soften the blow. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? As Democrats fret two key races. This Senate seat belongs to you. Will anything less than a tsunami disappoint? Plus, if you build it. I don't think we're a red state. I hit the trail in Iowa where Democrat Josh Turek hopes for a major flip. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Is this a perfect storm or will Republicans come home? We always win, but it's close. And reading the tea leaves. On election night, what early signs will our experts look for? David Chalion is live at the magic wall.

1:51Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power starts now.

2:01Good morning and welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. Can you believe it? The midterms are finally here. The most expensive campaign season in the history of the country. More than$11 billion spent finally coming to a close. Will it be total Democratic control of Congress? A split decision or a stunning GOP upset? And will it be a blue wave or just a ripple that falls short of sky-high Democratic expectations? Both parties are on edge this morning. All as Trump is trying to limit the damage holding tele-rallies and in-person events, today campaigning in Iowa and Kansas. So what does the path look like?

2:46Let's begin this morning with CNN's David Challen, who is live for us here at the Magic Wall. So, David, why is Trump heading to these red states 48 hours before the election and what does that tell us about the Democratic path to the majority? Yeah, well, he's heading to the red states, Manu, because the campaign is taking place in the red states, as you know. I mean, look at this map here. This is the Cook Political Report ratings right now, okay? What's yellow are the remaining sort of toss-up states. Some of the states here have been allocated blue or red leaning to the light. But you see, they all have red outlines except one state, Michigan.

3:18So he's going here because that's the deep red territory. So what can Democrats do? What is their path to a majority that the president is trying to stop here? Well, let's start with the one state in a blue outline. It's the one toss-up state currently held by Democrats. Let's give it to them. Let's say they hold Michigan, okay? Where do you go next in all of these Republican-held states? Well, on paper, the Democrats would look to Maine next, but we know Susan Collins is a pretty resilient figure there. But let's say Maine goes to the Democrats. Democrats are feeling pretty good about their chances in Ohio, which is just a crazy thing to say.

3:49And let's say Sherrod Brown ends up there getting reelected. Knocking on the door of the majority right now. Knocking on the door of the majority. So now, what do Democrats need? They need one more from these deep red states. So, of course, why is Donald Trump going? Because he needs to make sure that Iowa stays Republican. He needs to try and make sure that Kansas stays Republican. So here we're left with Texas and Alaska at this point, which is just, again, bananas to say. And then we're still talking about a possible path. And obviously, if indeed James Tallarico defies history and flips Texas blue, that would do the trick, irrespective of anything that happens in Alaska.

4:26Let's talk a little bit more about Alaska, because this has dominated so much of the conversation after we've learned about what happened with the second Dan Sullivan. Of course, the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, he's the one who's running. There's a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. Alaska has a top four getting into the general election. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher, on the ballot as well. We learned last week that it was the Democratic operatives who tried to push to get him on the ballot that could siphon away votes from Dan S. Sullivan, the incumbent senator, now Trump's Justice Department, going after all this and warning that this may not be certified.

5:00So, David, what are the chances that this all hinges on Alaska and come election night and Tuesday, Wednesday, we're waiting for Alaska? Manu, I don't think it's an unthinkable scenario, right? And so I just took you through this. Let me just go into Texas here. Let's say history proves actually pretty informative and Ken Paxton, the Republican, hangs on in Texas. So look at what that now does. Gives us 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans. Republicans need 50 to get to control because of the tie vote from J.D. Vance that he would break the tie. Democrats need 51. In this scenario, everything would hang on Alaska.

5:40And as we know, there is a ranked choice vote system. And the reality is that this could take a while, irrespective of all the legal proceedings that you were just talking about. This still just may take a while to sort out just by the way the system itself is set up. Yeah, we could be waiting. It could be election week, as it often happens to be many, many times during election season. David Challey, thank you for breaking that all down for us. He's going to join us back here at the table. Also joining me this morning, CNN's Jeff Zeleny and Bloomberg's Nia Malika Henderson. Good morning to you both.

6:11Nice to see you both. Okay, let's talk about another state. There's a lot of states, but Michigan. We were just talking about how, of course, we know how essential it is that Democrats hold Michigan. And there's this late fight that has been breaking out between Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, Haley Stevens, who he vanquished in that August primary. They tried to have this unity event today to show that they were on the same page. That was called off amid this fight over this outside groups ad that Haley Stevens called anti-Semitic. She wanted El-Sayed to denounce. And as a result, it led to this whole back and forth over Israel and things that really bubbled up during the primary season.

6:52And Abdul El-Sayed was asked about this just last night. Do you believe Haley Stevens is hurting the ticket by raising the ad, raising these issues? Like, again, we are out here having conversation after conversation. I just really don't think any of this matters. That's why I told you it's not really of relevance to Michigan voters. I've already been clear that that ad was not made by me, and I do not agree with the contents of that ad. So if the next question, I'm just telling you, if the next question is about this, I'm going to go ahead and spend my time talking to voters because that's what I'm trying to do right now.

7:23Jeff Zeleny, how much does this fight matter, if at all, in such a critical race? Well, we'll find out if it matters to voters. I mean, the reality, what his challenge is, Abdul El-Sayed, is to hold together the Democratic coalition, all of the Democratic coalition. And in our time in Michigan, as late as this past week when I was there, it is unclear if it is holding. There are positive signs for Democrats. There's a bit of optimism, but it's cautious optimism. And this fight at the very end of the campaign here, it's not what most Democratic leaders want to see. I think that most voters are not all that interested in what Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed, any sort of bad blood they have.

8:00But the underlying issue here is the actual point. Is he able to hold together this coalition or not? I've talked to several people who think that she's gotten some bad advice via Congresswoman and she should basically zip it. We'll see if that happens. She's not going to the event but the event is going on. Yeah. And the event is important because he's going out with some black leaders of Jim Clyburn and others and to try and rally support among black voters. That's a central question of Michigan. Is he able to get a lot of African-American voters who are essential in Detroit and elsewhere on his side and we will see.

8:39And you said why is she doing this Haley Stevens you know she sat down with the New York Times she did this whole thing talking about her concerns about Abdul Al-Sayed and you were democratically just pulling their hair out wondering why and perhaps one reason why is if you look at the polls the question was is your mind made up on the Michigan Senate race yeah a lot of them are a vast majority 86 percent of likely voters are but there are 14 percent of voters who are still persuadable right now. Yeah, listen, which is why Donald Trump likes this feud happening, which is like why Mike Rogers likes it as well.

9:10And it's sort of embracing Haley Stevens and saying, come on over. They are hoping that Democrats are sour on Abdul El-Sayed in the, you know, last year, particularly African-Americans and Jewish voters. Haley Stevens, rightly or wrongly, has sort of positioned herself as the voice of those two constituents. I have my questions about whether or not that's accurate. We'll see on Tuesday. The folks I've talked to, particularly about African-American voters, do think that Abdul will do not as well as the top of the ticket as Benson, but that he'll get enough. Maybe it will be a two - or three-point difference.

9:46Maybe she gives some coattails. Yeah, maybe she gives some coattails. But listen, I do think Clyburn being there is important. You remember? Clyburn in that primary was very critical of Abdul El-Sayed saying, why didn't he have any black folks in his crowd? Since then, Abdul Asaid has done a lot of work, right? He's had Obama there. He has had Kamala Harris there as well. And so they think in the end, this kind of bickering, which in some ways is a little bit one-sided, you know, it also involves her partner, Haley Stevens' fiance has given all sorts of interviews, which is downright sort of strange.

10:21Yeah, has endorsed Rogers. Yeah, endorsed Rogers. Yeah. Let's dig a little bit deeper into Alaska, David, you were going through the scenario where this could all hinge on Alaska and this controversy involving this other Dan Sullivan. Listen to Mary Pelto. She's the Democratic candidate and how she's trying to distance herself from this controversy. Is it possible that anybody in your campaign was potentially part of that conspiracy to plant Dan Jay? I have no idea. I honestly have no idea. The reason is this is offensive to me on a number of different levels. First of all, this is Alaska. We're not in the business of tricking each other up here.

11:00She's had an interesting response to this because initially she started attacking the New York Times when the story came out. Now she said this on Friday, very much trying to distance herself. Does this make a difference? Does this controversy make a difference at this stage? Yeah, I think actually there's connective tissue here between both the Alaska and the Michigan story because I think fundamentally these last minute areas of focus, of attention are total distractions from what the Democrats want to be talking about. And that's just a problem in the closing days. Whether it's an actual voting problem, I don't know the answer to that because the fundamentals are still also true, which is that Donald Trump is upside down in popularity in both of these states.

11:38The economy is the major factor driving voters in these states. So whether or not, you know, stacking the ballot or a skirmish between Stevens and El Syed can overwhelm the fundamentals to me is the question that we're going to see on Tuesday. What is certain to me? And in talking to operatives, this is not at all where either one of these Democratic candidates wanted to be closing out the race from a message. And we're going to hear from Dan Sullivan actually in State of the Union with Jay Tapper in the next hour. Jeff, Trump is going to a state you know very well today, Kansas. Is this helpful for Roger Marshall?

12:13Look at the polls here from the CNN poll just from a couple of days ago. Forty percent of Kansas voters want to would say that their vote is to oppose Trump. And just 26 percent in this very red state say their vote is to support. It's extraordinary in such a deep red state. I think it probably is helpful to Marshall because he's going to remind some Republican voters once again why he needs the vote. And again, the Senate race in Kansas is so fascinating because Adam Hamilton, of course, he's running for the first time ever. He has this brand of his own. But one challenge for him is if he wins, he'll be part of a Democratic Senate majority.

12:53And that is what the majority of Kansans are not interested in. They would still like a Republican majority. So those are kind of the headwinds that he's running up against. So I think the president is probably helpful of firing up some Republican voters. I assume if you're a Democratic voter and not into the president, you're probably voting anyway. Yeah, that's right. So I'm not sure he's going to hurt Hamilton. In other states, in Iowa, he's going there as well. I'm not sure. I think he does fire up some Iowans who are upset about Trump policies. I mean, there's a lot of Republicans who are very fearful that Kansas may flip, and we'll see if Trump can reverse and ease those fears today.

13:30All right, coming up next, we have brand new early voting data coming in this morning. there's an interesting wrinkle that could give the GOP some hope and Democrats some reason to be anxious. Plus, I hit the road in Iowa to understand why it's become so central in the race for not just the Senate, but also the House majority.

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14:45So what does the early vote tell us about the potential for a Democratic wave on Tuesday? Well, more than 50 million people have already voted. Democratic voters are outpacing Republicans at this point, as expected. But are there warning signs for their party? Let's dive into the numbers with my panel. So David Chalian, let's first look at the pre-election ballots that have been cast. These are of the 25 states that register by party here, for voters to register by party. And you look at the states that are on your map here, and those are the states with Senate races. There's overall an advantage for Democratic voters who have cast more votes than Republican voters.

15:28But when you look at nationally altogether here, it says 44 % of the ballots that have been returned in 2026 have been Democratic voters. 30 % have been Republican voters. When you compare that to the 2022 midterms, that was the year that Republicans took the House. They didn't have a big wave, but they took the House. The Democrats held the Senate. Back then, 43 % of Democratic ballots have been returned at this point versus 33 % of Republican voters. So they had a 10 % advantage, the Democrats did then. Now they have a 14 % advantage. So if there's a wave election, is this a warning sign that it might not be?

16:05Or is it too hard to break this down, David? This is the way I look at early vote. I think, obviously, you talk to campaign sources on both sides. They pore over this. They analyze this stuff, and they look at it, and it's very important to their metrics because it creates their to-do list for election day. So this does not tell us what the outcome is going to be. I don't think there's much tea leaf reading there. What it tells us is that Republicans, if they are facing a bigger deficit, as we see where states are available data according to party registration, facing a bigger deficit in the early vote, they need to make up more ground on Election Day.

16:42Now, their voters are reliable Election Day voters, they have proven to be. So do they have the turnout machine to do that or not? That becomes the question we will wait to answer on Tuesday. And then on Tuesday, also, we're looking at very closely at Texas and the pre-election ballots that have been cast in Texas. And perhaps there's some reason to be excited for if you're James Tallarico, because the number of his Latino voters has increased compared to 2022. If you're James Tallarico, how are you feeling about that at this moment? Because, you know, you perhaps you've been courting these Latino voters, but Trump did pretty well with them as well in the last cycle.

17:19Yeah, he did. And you've seen some fall off with Latino voters over the economy, over sort of overreach in terms of immigration as well. I agree with David, though, with these early numbers. I have been on so many panels on election night where Democrats are so happy about the early numbers. And then when the when, you know, same day voting comes in, election day voting, you know, Republicans overtake them. So I'd be cautious here. But we do know that Tallarico is banking on these Latino voters. He's really got to change the electorate down there, get more Latino voters, get more GOP voters, either to stay home or pull the ballot for him.

17:59And then, of course, African-American voters as well. What are you hearing from the Tallarico campaign? The Tallarico campaign is headed to Texas and will be there on election night. Look, it is a toss up. I mean, they're optimistic about the energy they see. They're optimistic about the excitement they see. One thing they can't change is the history and the makeup of the state. So I think the challenge here is, are they able to sort of build this new coalition? And I mean, he is running a remarkable campaign in terms of the excitement factor for younger voters, some older voters, voters who are upset with the economy.

18:34But again, it's Texas. And he would really have to get a lot of Republicans. And we've met many Republicans. I was always kind of skeptical. Am I going to find Republicans who are supporting him? You do. Everywhere you go, you actually do. But there's a governor's race there as well. Is that going to impact the Senate race if Greg Abbott is reelected? Does he help Ken Paxton? One thing is clear. Ken Paxton is the weakest Senate candidate, probably. I would say the weakest, the most embattled. Without Elon Musk and all that money, he would not be competitive. But that is what it is. They're optimistic, but it is a toss-up race.

19:09And I think anything could happen on Tuesday night. Roger Marshall or Ken Paxton, perhaps, would be in the running for his weakest Republican candidates. We'll see if either of those win. Meantime, while Trump has faced these really rock-bottle approval ratings and he's been on the campaign trail trying to boost Republican support, he's been making promise after promise after promise, but only if Republicans win. And I wanted you to know that if John Houston wins, I am going to consider putting the Space Academy right here. If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I am going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America$5 ,000.

19:55And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E-15 permanent. it. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I'm not doing it. If the Republicans win the Department of War, we'll be investing a hundred million dollars in the pharmaceutical company Anthea to revitalize a gigantic drug manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky.

20:25I mean, the thing is, he probably can't do any of that stuff because it would require Congress and even if he wins, getting things passed through Congress, like$5 ,000 for every United States citizen, yeah, that ain't happening. Yeah, that'll be a tough one to get through. You gotta give him credit for the total transparency of the craven political nature of it all. He's not hiding the ball here in any way, so there's that. But listen, do presidents go around and try to offer goodies in political season? Sure. Has Donald Trump just taken this to a whole new level like he does so many things? Without a doubt.

20:59Yeah, no question about it. And while we look at the president's approval numbers, he is at 34 percent right now. The question is, how many seats will they will they lose if maybe they won't? Maybe they'll gain some seats and surprise the world. But you compare that to past president's performance. Joe Biden at this time had a 41 percent approval rating in his midterm. Republicans gained nine seats in the House. Democrats won in the Senate. And you see Trump won that first time. 41 percent Democratic House gain. It's hard to see that many seats in this cycle. 39 percent when Trump was sitting at that point.

21:29And then that Tea Party wave in 2010, 63 Republican seats when Obama had a 40 percent approval rating. Well, Trump's 34 percent approval rating. What does that mean for Tuesday? All right. Coming up next, can Democrats flip three House seats, a Senate seat and the governor's mansion in a state Trump won comfortably three times? Well, I hit the trail to find out. How hard is it to run as a Democrat statewide in Iowa? Progressive's Accident Response can contact emergency services if you're in a major accident. The only thing worse than someone you love being in an accident is not being able to help them.

22:09So Progressive is here to help when you can't. So get peace of mind knowing your loved ones are protected with Progressive's Accident Response. Learn more at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Limited availability in California. Driver is responsible for emergency and towing charges not covered by the policy. Coverage subject to policy terms and conditions. If you build it, Iowa and Iowa are asking themselves heading into Tuesday in a state the GOP has dominated for more than a decade. Three of the four GOP House seats could potentially flip, as could the governor's mansion.

22:44So will there be a seat change in Iowa? What does that mean in the fight for power here in Washington and the United States Senate? This week, I hit the trail to find out. As a bitter campaign season comes to a close. One state could reveal the extent of the backlash against President Donald Trump and determine the next House and Senate majorities. And that's Iowa, where Republicans are nervous. How concerned are you that the Democrats could actually win here? Well, Iowa's been a two-party state for a long time. And Democrats see an opening. A lot of people look to Trump as a change agent, but he sort of went in the wrong direction.

23:25Now, Iowa has been a reliably Republican state under President Trump. But are the winds shifting? Well, they could be because of higher diesel prices, higher gasoline prices, the increase in fertilizer prices that were caused by the Iran war, and just the opposition over President Trump's tariff policies that are hurting family farms. There are three Republican-held House seats at risk of flipping to the Democrats. There is one open Republican seat at risk of flipping the Democrats in the Senate. And that's where Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate facing off against Republican Ashley Hinson in one of the closest races in the country.

24:04Enough is enough. The state is going in the wrong direction. The 47-year-old Turek, who was born with spina bifida and won two golds on the U.S. Paralympic basketball team, won his first race to the statehouse in 2022 by just six votes in a conservative district. As he pitches himself as a prairie populist, Republicans are flooding the airwaves with attacks like these. Liberal politician Josh Turek, he only shows up for illegals. Yet it's Democrats who are outspending the GOP in the air war, with both sides combined set to spend more than a quarter billion dollars. Turek rejects the idea that a state that voted for Barack Obama twice and elected Democrat Tom Harkin to the Senate over three decades is reliably red.

24:51Given where the Democratic brand is right now, how hard is it to run as a Democrat statewide in Iowa? I don't think we're a red state. I think we're a common... You don't think you're a red state? So I've said for a whole year, we are a common sense state that has masqueraded as more red than what we actually are. Yet a recent CNN poll found that a majority of likely Iowa voters preferred Republicans controlling the Senate, even as it showed the race up for grabs. What do you say to those Republican voters and independent voters you need to win right now who may say, look, I like Josh Turek, I like his profile and the rest, but I am concerned about a Democratic majority if you were to win.

25:27What do you say to that? The best way to judge future performance is past performance. Over 700 times I've voted with Republicans, including on issues like immigration, including issues on taxes, property taxes. Trust me, all anybody needs to do is go into my social media feeds. they will realize that not all the Democrats love me. I don't care about party leadership. I don't care about party direction. I'm going to be laser focused on what is best for the people here because too many people in Iowa are hurting it. Because some of those folks in your party will want to go after Trump. They'll call for impeachment.

25:57Will you resist those calls? I've said it many times. I have no interest in looking backwards. I want to look forward. Still, Turek sees Hinson's alliance with Trump as a liability. Is she a MAGA Republican in your view? I think she has been for six years. Josh Turek is cosplaying as a moderate. Don't believe it. He is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Hinson, a 43-year-old former local TV reporter who has served in the House for nearly six years, says Turek is outside the mainstream. But her own shift has been notable. Now I am running to be President Trump's top ally in the United States Senate. Now emphasizing working with Democrats as Trump has grown more unpopular.

26:39To get stuff done out there, you've got to bring folks together. I tried to catch up with Hinson at a campaign stop about 150 miles north of Des Moines to ask about that shift. But she showed little interest in engaging. You ran initially as, say, he'd be Trump's top ally in the Senate. I'm wondering what's changed in your messaging at the end of the campaign where you're focusing more on bipartisanship more than being Trump's top ally. I've always been bipartisan, Manu. I had 1 ,700 bipartisan votes, and my first two bills signed into law were signed under Biden. So I'm going to work with anybody to get things done for Iowa.

27:13And you want to end the Iran war. Why not vote to limit Trump's war powers in Iran? You've had that opportunity. We don't need another resolution. We need our U.S. military and the president to end the war, and that's what I've told you. But why not Congress insert its authority?

27:28As Hinson has consistently opposed limiting Trump's war powers, two endangered Des Moines area House Republicans, Marriott Miller Meeks and Zach Nunn, voted for the first time this fall to effectively end the war. How hard is Trump's handling the economy, the Iran war in particular, major race? Well, look, I mean, when the president's fought for Iowa, we've been right there with him. When we feel it doesn't help Iowa, we've been the first to stand up to him. We stood up to him on the Iran war. We stood up to him on beef. You've done that more earlier, pushback. Iran in particular, push to get back against the Iran war earlier.

28:03I don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Stumping at a diner in Nunn's district. All the polls are wrong. The pundits are wrong. Speaker Mike Johnson told me that he expects Trump to boost his endangered incumbents. There's no drag at all. The president's out. No drag? No, no drag at all. The president is out doing these events and he's having huge turnout, as you've seen. It's just like 2024. You're spending millions in these very Republican districts. These are difficult districts every cycle. Zach and Marinette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, for example, here. There's some Trump plus 10, Trump plus 14 districts where you guys are fighting right now.

28:34Well, you've seen very consistent outcomes in Iowa. We always win, but it's close. All right, my excellent panel is back, including Jeff Zeleny, who's second over, maybe third home, is Iowa in itself. I wish. Yeah, that's right. Jeff, what are the chances of a Democratic sweep here, potentially three House seats, potentially the governor's race, potentially the Senate race? History is often our guide in politics, not always. But in 2018, Democrats won three House seats there. And the conditions are much worse this year for the economy and the view of the president as worse. So I think that's kind of a baseline here.

29:07But the governor's race for Democrats, Rob Sand, is running away. And even Republicans there are largely unanimous in thinking that he's going to win. So it is a fascinating race, the three House seats, but that Senate race. The fact that Ashley Hinson ran away from you does not seem to me to be a sign of strength in the closing days. But the cultural issues here at the end of this campaign, I think, are going to be decisive or instructive for many voters. Speaking of the cultural issues, there was an ad that Josh Turr came out with in the final days of the campaign after getting hit about the transgender issues about boys playing in girls' sports.

29:44And he came out with this ad, and I asked him about it, and the backlash that it caused from the left. As a Paralympian, I also know it's important to have rules. It's why I oppose males competing in female sports. Is it a sign that those attacks against you are working? You have to go direct to camera on this? I believe that biological males should not compete in female sports. And if that rubs some people in my party the wrong way, look, we're a big party. And, you know, you don't have to agree with me on everything. Nia, can these attacks on transgender issues work like it has for Republicans in the past cycle?

30:16Yeah, I think so. And, you know, if you go in these different states. Maybe judging just by his response there. Yeah, I mean, him having to address this head on suggests that it did work and it does work. And you see ads all over the country in these Senate races and governor's races where Republicans are attacking Democrats on these issues. You see it in Ohio, for instance, and Sherrod Brown said, oh, well, listen, this is a distraction. And he sort of didn't really address it head on. But the fact that he addressed it head on suggests it's Iowa. You need to talk about it. Cultural issues, economic issues, what will win out come Tuesday.

30:50We shall see you next when you tune in on Tuesday. You might know by 730 whether Democrats are really headed for a blowout. The bellwether waves races to watch. We're back at the wall. That's next.

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32:00435 House races, 35 for the Senate, and countless further down ballot. Which of them could give us an early indication of which way the wind is blowing Tuesday night? And when will you find out? We're back here at the Magic Wall with David Challion. So, David, you have your eyes on Kentucky early Tuesday evening. Why Kentucky? Because it closes first. So, looking anywhere, it's 6 p.m. Eastern. Take a look here. This whole map will be filled in, obviously. on Tuesday night. There's nothing in it now. But if you look in the Lexington area, Kentucky's sixth congressional district, Manu, this is a district Donald Trump won by 15 points just two years ago.

32:37I don't even think the Democrat needs to win it to say they're having, that would be an amazing night, perhaps that would portend. But even if they dramatically narrow that and get closer, you could say, hey, Democrats may be on target for a pretty good night. And Zach Dembo, the Democratic candidate there, the Democrats are signaling that they think that maybe he can pull of an upset there. You're right. If it is an upset, that would be a huge night for the Democrats. And we're also looking into Florida because remember, Republicans, they had gerrymandered the districts there. They had put four seats that they wanted to pick up as well as results of gerrymandering.

33:07What do you see? Yeah. So these in the lighter gray are the four districts we're watching related to that mid-decade redistricting that Ron DeSantis engineered. And take a look here in the Tampa area as an example. This is where Kathy Castor is, the Democrat trying to get reelected there. Two years ago, when she, this district, Kamala Harris won it by seven points. As it is redrawn, this district is now a Trump plus 11 district. Like, he would have won it by 11 points if it looked like this. So that's one place you want to look early on. Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern. We're going to start seeing vote come in to see, is this potential wall that Republicans are building with redistricting helping, or did the national environment actually overcome that?

33:48Yeah, and Hakim Jeffries told me that he does not think Republicans will get those four seats. We'll see. The Kathy Castro one's going to be so instrumental in determining how big of a night this will be for the Democrats on Tuesday. Jeff Zeleny, what is one thing that you're going to be watching on Tuesday night? Look, if there is going to be a wave, if there is going to be this big Democratic boomlet, they're going to have to win in some Republican areas. Montana won is someplace that I have my eye on. Sam Forstag is the Democratic candidate in the race. He was a smoke jumper. He got in this a race.

34:19He put out fires basically in Montana and across the West. He saw what was happening with the layoffs and Doge and decided to get in this race. And he has really been something of a star candidate. We will see if he can prevail. But if Democrats are going to have this big win on election night, it is going to be in places like this where they can flip. We shall see. Yeah. And Nia, you've been watching South Carolina. Tell us about that. Yes, the first district in South Carolina, this is Nancy Mace's old seat. She won by about 17 points in 2024. Trump won by about seven points. This is the wealthiest district in South Carolina.

35:01It's basically Nikki Haley country. A lot of kind of standard Chamber of Commerce type Republicans. Will they pull the lever for the Democrat in this seat? Again, I don't necessarily think she's going to win, but let's look at the margins on election night. Polls close, I think, at 7 o 'clock on Tuesday in South Carolina. So to the extent that Democrats have any shot, they are going to have to get some of these sort of moderate Republicans who have soured on Donald Trump. That's the way they win, not only in South Carolina, but in all of these other deep red states on Tuesday. And keep an eye on that Senate race in South Carolina as well.

35:41Oh, yeah. Dr. Annie Andrews, does that help? She's from that area. Does that help Nancy LaCour? Yeah, that's a good question. And before we get into the House races that I'm watching, Jeff Delaney handicapping Annie Andrews' chances of winning against Darlene Graham. Look, it is South Carolina. It is a red state. But boy, what a fascinating end of the cycle here. I mean, she's been campaigning aggressively. The president went back there again late last week. So I think it is, I mean, if the Democrat wins the Senate race in South Carolina, it is a huge night for the party. I think, again, history has to be our guide, and we have to be a little skeptical here.

36:17But she certainly has excitement on her side. There's no doubt about it. Yeah, no question. And I was about there last week, and darling Graham, trying to nationalize that race, very much hoping Republicans come home. And, look, we've been talking a lot on these House races about, as we should, about what races could flip and could give Democrats the majority. That will be the big focus on Tuesday night. But there's also this other story that we've been also covering a lot this cycle, which is the Democratic fight over the shift to the left, the Democratic socialists that are playing such a huge role in these primaries.

36:47And in California, there are two districts in particular. Remember, this is a jungle primary system in California, so the top two vote-getters get into the general election. There are two districts in which there are two Democratic incumbents facing off against Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates. And it's possible those incumbents could lose. Those two, the California 7th Congressional District, Doris Matsui. She's facing off against Mike Vong, who's a Democratic Socialist candidate there in that race. And then another one in the California's 34th Congressional District. That is Jimmy Gomez, who is actually facing an ethics investigation over some of his conduct.

37:24He's facing a very tough challenge against Angela Gonzalez-Torres, a DSA-backed candidate. very quickly, David Chalian, if these DSA-backed candidates win, what will it mean for Hakeem Jeffries if he becomes Speaker? Well, he'll have to see how large of a faction this DSA wing of the party is in his newly formed caucus and whether or not he has a buffer to be able to sort of keep them at bay and let them be heard or whether or not they're actually going to be the deciding votes in some critical votes that he's going to be overseeing. Yeah, we'll see if they get the majority, how big of a majority?

37:57Will they have a governing majority? What will that mean? So many huge questions ahead from Tuesday and beyond. All right, coming up, it has been a wild year of campaign reporting, and I've been to more than 10 states sitting down with and sometimes chasing down candidates in the most important races. Stay tuned for some of the most revealing moments from the trail next. Life is all about making decisions. Sometimes you make questionable ones, like buying a new TV that's too big for the wall because the electronics store employee was a little too good at their job. Then sometimes you make great ones, like protecting your home and auto with Progressive.

38:38You get customized coverage options so you can be sure you have the right coverage. Get your quote today at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and other insurers not available in all states. You may have heard about candidates wearing out their shoes during a campaign, but they aren't the only ones. I put some miles on my shoes as well, mainly chasing after candidates in big cities and in rural towns and asking them some pretty direct questions. Sometimes they wanted to engage and other times not so much. Do you think that the memory in your party about Joe Biden, is that going to be too much for you to overcome?

39:19Good Lord. I'm not Joe Biden, for God's sake. I'm healthy. Trump, if he doesn't endorse, will it be a huge mistake? If Ken Paxton's your nominee, it will be a disaster. Trump is not on the ballot this time. Yeah, but he was also impeached twice. He got impeached two more times than I did. Look where he's at, President of the United States. But you're not Trump. I mean, you're not Trump. I never said I was Trump. If he wins the general election, Abdul El-Sayed, would he be, would the Republicans eat him alive? Well, look, every single poll shows I'm the best person or the only person that can beat Mike Rogers.

39:55This is about electability. Your party wants to hold on to this seat, of course. There is this notion that electability is about being the least offensive. If that were true, why would Donald Trump have won the presidency twice? But is it still toxic? Being a Democrat, being a Democrat toxic here. You're the pundit, I'm not. But you wrote that. It's not my word. How damaged is a Democratic brand here in North Carolina? I think that there are enough people in North Carolina who are skeptical of national Democrats. Are you worried, though, that that issue, the Canadian tariffs, could cost you this race?

40:24I don't believe that the Canadian tariff issue is going to decide the race. Would you consider yourself part of the Democratic Socialist wing? I don't really consider myself anything. How hard is it to run against that brand? Yeah. Yeah. Well, he doesn't put his first name on his signs because he's hoping to stoke the confusion about which Sununu's on the ballot. Are you trying to confuse voters? No, that's the most. Look, I'm using the same signs I've ever used. That's actually a very silly question, Manu. What about your comment in the debate that national security is not your thing? How much did that hurt you in this race?

41:00I don't think it hurt me at all. Give me the percentage chance of Democrats being in the majority. Would you say 100 % at this point? Well, listen, we're on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives. I think Trump will support you if you ran for minority leader in the unthinkable situation in your view. President Trump will support me in anything I do. It's always important to get candidates on the record. That's it for Inside Politics Sunday. Up next, sitting in you with Jake Tapper and Dana Bass. Jake's guests include Alaska Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, Georgia Senator Ralph A.

41:32Warnock, and Nebraska Congressman Don Bacon. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

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