GOP's Big Spend: The Battle for Senate Control

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1:04On the ballot. You've got to pretend I'm on the ticket. With just 51 days to go, the president takes a detour. But as he and the GOP pour millions more into ads, will they convince their base to turn out? And doomsday warning. The world has to work together. It's going to be fine. We'll always have something to stop them, right? Tech titans say AI should slow down with humanity at risk. As the left urges action, what will Washington do? Plus, Carolina clash. They just have to not screw it up. I hit the trail in must-win North Carolina, where Democrats are hoping to flip a seat. But in a state Trump won three times, will that be harder than they think?

1:50Someone asked me what my biggest concern was, and I said that people take this race for granted. Complacency. Complacency. Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power starts now.

2:08Good morning and welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. The GOP midterm strategy is coming sharply into focus as Republicans throw enormous piles of cash to save their imperiled majorities. At the center of that strategy, Texas, with a GOP cavalry, is now marching in to salvage the candidacy of Ken Paxton and avoid their nightmare of a critical Senate seat turning blue. For Trump, well, he finds himself overseas, spending crucial campaign days at a golf tournament in Ireland. But with just 51 days until Election Day, many Republicans are just thankful he is finally putting his money where his mouth is and deploying vast resources to prop up his party.

2:49And Trump is not the only one. GOP groups are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to make sure voters see ads like these. Tallarico supported using taxpayer dollars for sex change surgeries on young children and even said denying your child's gender identity is abusive. Radical liberal James Tallarico. For they, them, not you. She was 14 years old for sale in a motel off I-35. Now her traffickers are in prison because Ken Paxton put them there. 40 years for the trafficker, 20 years for the woman who posted the ads. The unit that locked them up, Ken Paxton built it. All right, let's break this all down with my excellent panel of political experts.

3:37NPR's Tamara Keith, Punchbowl News' John Bresnan, and the host of the Chuck Toddcast, Chuck Todd. Good morning to you all. Happy Sunday. Some of those ads were running through that wild Texas-Ohio State game last night. So we know a lot of these Texas voters had seen this. But the amount of money is pretty staggering. Just look at how much has been spent by James Tallarico and how much will be spent by Ken Paxson and his allies. It was$41 million, so almost$42 million spent on the Tallarico side up until now. Future reservations until Election Day. This could change, but at the moment,$4.7 million.

4:12Then you go to Ken Paxton, who had been getting swamped on the air, particularly as of late. Tallarico had the airwaves almost to himself. And then we see the Trump team come in, the big outside group linked to Senate Majority to John Thune coming in, and now$33.5 million in additional ad reservations. They're now being outspent about roughly five to one until Election Day. Chuck, what do you make of this? What's the impact here, and what does this tell you about the Republican effort to hang on to the Senate Majority? Well, I think we're going to learn a lot in the next two weeks. because it came in everywhere.

4:44It's not just Texas, it came in in Ohio and Michigan. You just saw, you know, Democrats have basically outspent Republicans for most of the summer, but you kind of knew where this was going. And an enormous amount got dropped and you saw these different groups. It's interesting, by the way, that MAGA Inc. created a new subsidiary, because I think they realized the first time they ran an ad that came, paid for it by MAGA Inc., it was like, ugh, not exactly what they were. Don't take that on air. No, I won't. Not exactly what they were looking for there. So, look, I think we'll learn, can they move the base, right?

5:17It started with that convention last week, which I think events overtook it, to be honest. We'll see if that had that much of an impact. But I think the next two weeks, if they're not improving their numbers by the first of October, then we'll say that maybe the money didn't. Yeah. And the question now is for Democrats, Texas is such a money drain. And if we know how Texas is, they keep thinking they can get Texas, they don't get Texas. It's been decades since they actually won a statewide race there. So can they actually, will they match that money dollar for dollar? Will they try to put money in there and say, we have other targets on the map to get the majority and let James Tallarico, who has been outspending Ken Paxton, let him fend it for himself?

5:59Well, he dramatically outraced Paxton also. I mean, he's done very well. So I think we'll see a lot. I think we'll see Democratic money move there. There's no way they can win the Senate without Texas. I just don't see it. Because remember, Democrats have problems in New Hampshire and Michigan now. Those are races. They need a fifth. There was a time it was a luxury. It's not a luxury. And they need Texas now. And I will say, in the House side, we talk about some of the spending. That's the Senate side. It's defensive. In the Senate, it's also defensive. There's defensive in the nature. I mean, they're defending Alaska.

6:33I mean, this is what John Cornan and everybody was warning about. Exactly. Why are you going to force the party to come in and spend$50 million before election year? But they're going to spend it elsewhere. But they're doing it in Ohio. They're doing it in Alaska. They're having to do it. They're having to try to save a seat in Iowa. I mean, so. And Kansas may come on the board. Kansas is now. I mean, it was a tough debate last night for Marshall. So, you know. Which we'll talk about later in the show. Don't get ahead of the show, John. Oh, sorry. Oh, you could tease it. That's fine. Tough debate coming up soon.

6:59That's an interesting thing happening in Kansas this week. But this is how James Tallarico responded to those ads because he's obviously not backing off and he's going after Paxton himself. This is Adam Hoffman leaving jail after he admitted to sexually abusing a child. He should have spent his life in prison. Instead, Attorney General Ken Paxton offered him one day in jail. See, Hoffman's lawyer represented one of Paxton's biggest donors. Ken Paxton's corruption endangers our kids. We don't need any more pedophile protectors in Washington. Woof! That's a tough one. I mean, all of these ads are tough.

7:38There's just so much money getting thrown around. According to Ad Impact at this point, though, as you point out, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on air based on the current reservations everywhere except for Georgia. And Georgia is a state where Republicans may see that the car is too far ahead to catch. But this is, you know, the majority is on the line, right? And so Republicans are willing to spend a lot of money. They have a lot of money. Republicans have been sitting on giant piles of cash. In particular, MAGA Inc. has had giant piles of cash. And Democrats do not, the candidates have lots of money.

8:22the individual groups, the DNC, all of the party groups, Republicans have just vastly more money. And now that they have that Supreme Court decision on their side, they can spend much more money. And remember, last midterm, the 22 midterm, Democrats were able, because of this law, they were able to essentially, they moneyballed their money better. They were able to essentially go ad for ad, even though the super PACs on the right outspent them. this time with that coordination, number one, and you don't have this overwhelming amount of campaign cash that they were able to offset it with. I do think, look, Democratic money made 22 harder for Republicans.

9:05Republican money made 26 harder for Democrats. Yeah, no question about speaking of the money. You mentioned that Trump new group. They don't call themselves MAGA Inc., but it's a Trump-linked super PAC. This is the amount of money they just announced, 80-plus million bucks in more money,$17.5 million are the most of this that they currently announce. Of course, that is in Michigan, a seat that they desperately want to flip and to block the Democrats from moving ahead here. Ohio, of course, a huge problem for them to hold on to that seat. John Huston, the incumbent Republican senator, going up against Sherabond, that's second on the list.

9:41And then Alaska, I mean, what a complicated state that's become for the—it says Arkansas on the map, but then Alaska.

9:52to some extent it seems like the the firewall strategy seems to be hold on to texas flip michigan hopefully they think they can hang on to maine as well but if they flip michigan and texas that and paths with the democratic majority is so so narrow oh yeah i mean they can't they can't do anything wrong they have to have that they you know it has to be an inside straight They have to do the whole thing. I mean, look, Collins is losing in a poll in Maine, but she was losing last time. So I don't trust any polling. I mean, and a problem for some of these races is the polling is so sporadic. I mean, they're talking about Kansas.

10:28I've only seen one public poll recently in Kansas, whereas you have lots of polls in some of these other states. So, look, I think New Hampshire is another one. I mean, that's a good pickup opportunity. And Pappas, Chris Pappas, the Democrat running there, is warning Democrats we've got to do it. Look, Democrats knew this tidal wave of money was going to come. But really seeing it hit the ground is a different thing that you were talking about. And it's happening in the House races, too. I mean, look at the MAGA, the Trump-linked group, the amount of money they're spending here. $6.7 million to pick off.

10:59That's an offensive strategy, to pick off the seat. Jared Moskowitz is the Democratic incumbent. This is a redistrict gerrymandered to help Republicans. That could certainly flip here. They're trying to pick off here another Democrat, Don Davis,$1.6 million in this North Carolina 11th congressional district. And then you look at New York, 17. Mike Lawler, someone who Republicans really, he's one of the three Republicans in Kamala Harris one district. If he can hang on, the chances of the Democratic path to the majority are so much more narrow. So there is a clear, the Trump team clearly recognizes they got to spend in these House districts as well.

11:40Yes, and I will note that Mike Lawler also appeared at this Republican convention in Dallas. Yeah, which is really interesting. Yes, he is going with the strategy of hugging Trump close and he is getting money infused into his district by the Trump-linked PAC as a result, or maybe not as a result, but But certainly he is someone who has decided, well, yeah, I can't separate myself, so I'm just going to hug him close, which has been fascinating to watch. A lot of candidates did not go to that convention. Yeah, because Trump is going to be the issue no matter what. So some candidates are saying, well, might as well take the good with Trump and have to deal with the bad as well.

12:21All right, coming up, as leaders in AI urge a slowdown amid doomsday warnings, President Obama is reportedly adding his voice for those calling for action. So are Congress and President Trump, well, are they changing their tune?

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13:30Do you have any concerns about AI leading to human extinction? No, I don't have any. I have concerns that if we don't win AI, we're going to be put in a very bad position. This weekend, warnings that AI could wipe out humanity are leading to a reckoning across America. But in Washington, perhaps not so much. The New York Times reporting that during a recent fundraiser, President Obama urged House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to put AI front and center if Democrats retake the House, saying, quote, this is something that's moving very fast in private hands, and if we don't get on top of it, I think it can be dangerous.

14:07So with Congress back this week, we may actually do anything about it. My panel of insiders is back. I think we know the answer to that question. But just on the Obama of it all, he's also urging them to make this a pull issue headed into the midterms. He said, according to this Times report, he said, he suggested that candidates running for president in 2028 ought to make AI one of their central agendas and have a very clear plan for responding to safety and economic concerns around the technology. But we're seeing all these concerns among the electorate about data centers and about now we're hearing about these doomsday warnings.

14:43How much is this, how effective of a political strategy is this headed into November for Democrats or Republicans to try to tap into that anxiety among the electorate? Yeah, I think that data centers are sort of the physical representation of the anxiety that a lot of people and voters have about AI and, you know, the robots coming to destroy us. And more to the point, take jobs and change life as people know it. And so it has really catalyzed around AI data centers, but I think it is bigger than that. and you are seeing candidates on both sides of the aisle realize, oh gosh, data centers, this is toxic.

15:25We need to campaign against them. You've seen this in races all over the country. It's in direct conflict with the way President Trump talks about AI. Yeah, you just heard him right there saying that's... He has really leaned in in support of AI. There was the social post where he said, if you don't want data centers, you just want to be backward. Not an exact quote, but pretty darn close. So I think Republicans have a harder time with this because Democrats in most cases are able to just be like, yep, this is bad. And we've seen this shift among Republicans too. Some races, you saw Greg Abbott in Texas, how he's dealt with data centers.

16:03And in the Ohio Senate race, John Husted, the Republicans get hammered by Sherrod Brown on this issue. Every ad Brown is running is about this. I think, you know, they've talked about like select committees on this. This is look, I've been covering the social media stuff. They still haven't passed legislation on kids online. And that's been years. Yeah. We saw. And there's bipartisan support behind that. Bipartisan. We saw both the House and Senate committees on antitrust legislation on social media. That didn't go anywhere. I think there's, you know, there's the competition with China, but also there's an economic issue here.

16:36These companies are so powerful in these individual states, too. Look at the spending in Louisiana. Look at what META is spending there. And it happens in different states. They are so powerful. there's going to be a real economic there's going to be real economic cost if you slow this down and I think that's part of what Trump yeah so there's an international competition but this is the thing that's carrying the American economy right and they just don't know how to get their arms around look the public is begging for politicians to get into this and this is it's even bigger to me than AI and data centers this is 15 years of you've destroyed our kids with social media by the way what's the one bipartisan issue in America?

17:17Keeping cell phones out of schools. Red legislatures, blue legislatures. They've all passed that unanimously. It's about this. But I have something for these tech companies. Stop us before we kill humanity. We don't know what we're... Give me a break. You know, like, get your own arms around your own problems here. And there's no doubt we've got to do some regulating. But I worry about this town. It is so awash in cash. I mean, look at this crypto business. Why is it paralyzed? because the towns of Washington cash. You had Chuck Schumer tell Senate Democrats stop criticizing crypto because we can't afford.

17:51Chuck, Sherrod Brown lost it. Lost the set at sea. They've all shut their mouth on crypto. And that's kind of what's happening here. This disconnect. The country is on fire about this. Washington has been bought off. They have enough on both sides. How is this new? We've had this unhealthy health care for 20 years because they have so much money. The public is so pissed. And this town has been, this is one of those, they've been bought off. I mean, crypto has been begging to be regulated and they can't get a bill through. Well, they're going to try this week. But, you know, this is where these powerful companies can influence individual lawmakers and the leaders can go on TV and Obama can, it's easy for Obama because he doesn't have it.

18:33Yeah, right. He can be perfect on it. But it's like there is so much money. They have so, they have PR firms. They have think tanks. They have lobbyists. They just dozens of them. And we've seen this with health care. We've seen this with the banking industry, these powerful industries regulating them. This is on another level. Congress is just ill-equipped to do this. In the meantime, we've seen this explosion of AI ads on the campaign trail as well. More than we've seen in any other cycle. This is just a taste of some of them in the past recent weeks. And God said, let there be six genders. And there were.

19:05Then God so loved the world that he gave us his only son, who is a radical feminist. Senator John Ossoff spends more money than any Washington politician on hair and makeup. I know what you're thinking. Yes, even more than the ladies. Thousands on hair and makeup. What a phony. The dude voted to raise taxes by two grand.

19:30They'll never see us coming. They really think we're just Democrats. I mean, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, they identified 164 ads and at least 80 million AI ads spent this cycle. 80 % of them were identified as from Republican candidates or Republican groups. Geez, do you think they're going to believe us anymore? I mean, this is, I mean, you know, here's the thing. We're seeing this. There's no regulation to it. There clearly should be this stuff. I think this will be the last cycle this is allowed. I would assume the one thing a bunch of elected officials who are petrified of AI taking them down This might be the one regulation they unite around hey, let's make sure you can't do AI ads making fun of us Do you think that voters will think that hey, that's John Ossoff?

20:16I mean maybe some low information voters could think that No, I think they're gonna assume you're not gonna believe anything. I think the minute they introduce Sora That piece of software when you could when everybody could start making these AI videos that's the moment nobody is going to believe any video they see online. Age of cynicism is here. Yes, it has been. It's probably going to get a lot worse, as you all are saying. I totally agree. All right, coming up. I hit the trail in North Carolina, where President Trump is also heading this week. Some Democrats think that they can actually easily flip that Senate seat, but their Senate candidate tells me something else.

20:52He's saying not so fast. I'll tell you why next. It's tough for a Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. This is going to be anywhere from a 1 % to 3 % race. When it's time to scale your business, it's time for Shopify. Get everything you need to grow the way you want. Like, all the way. Stack more sales with the best converting checkout on the planet. Track your cha-chings from every channel, right in one spot. and turn real-time reporting into big-time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level. Switch to Shopify. Start your free trial today. If Democrats thought that the Senate race in North Carolina would be a cakewalk, well, their prize recruit is warning it's turning into more of a dogfight.

21:46Former Governor Roy Cooper is facing a GOP onslaught to boost Republican Michael Watley in a state that President Trump has won three times. This week, Trump himself heading south to rally with Watley. So how close is it? I travel to North Carolina to find out. What about the Democrats, the Democratic brand? Is it popular or unpopular here? They just have to not screw it up. Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor, is key to Democrats' quest to take the Senate. A mission that would almost certainly be derailed if he fails to defeat Michael Watley, the former RNC chairman and close ally of Trump's.

22:26He will do and say whatever the president tells him to do and say. A lot of Democrats have written off North Carolina. They think they have it in the bag. But why would they think that? I mean, Donald Trump has won here three times. And there's been no Senate Democrat who's won statewide in a Senate race since 2008. There have been polls that have shown Cooper well ahead in this race. But at least one poll from High Point University actually showed this race to be much tighter, a five-point race. That's within the margin of error, meaning there's no clear leader in this race. There's this view in Washington that you kind of have this race in the bag.

23:03I mean, but the polls actually show that this is actually a tightening race. It really is. So what has changed here on the ground? Well, nothing's really changed that we didn't anticipate. North Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat in almost two decades and only two in almost the last 40 years. So it's tough for a Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. This is going to be anywhere from a 1 % to 3 % race. Someone asked me what my biggest concern was, and I said that people take this race for granted. Complacency. Complacency. They've been pounding us with false negative ads since July.

23:42And the race is tightening just as we knew it would. Republicans clearly have not given up, reserving more money for TV ads in the final eight weeks of the campaign, with more than$50 million. With Trump's approval sagging, Cooper is barnstorming the state, attacking Watley over high cost caused partly by the president's war with Iran and sweeping tariffs. I know costs are way up, and it's the senator's job to do something about it. As Cooper was seizing on cost of living concerns in a suburban Charlotte county that Trump carried three times. About 120 miles southeast from there, Watley was attacking Cooper's record in a Democratic stronghold.

24:26And I caught up with Watley to ask whether he was aligned with Trump on Iran and tariffs. Watley's careful not to break from the president. Since the president came into office, inflation is still higher than when he first came in in January 2025. I'm wondering specifically when it comes to the issues of Iran and tariffs. Should he change course at all, given how much more people are paying here in North Carolina? Well, what I would say is inflation is a whole lot less than it was under Joe Biden, right? And so they are significantly lower than they were, and they need to get them even lower still, right?

24:59When we talk about the war on Iran, obviously, we need to ensure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, that they do not have a capacity to build or to deploy nuclear weapons. And so I think the president took decisive action, and we're moving forward with that. So are you 100 percent behind him when it comes to Iran and tariffs specifically? Well, what I would say is that we cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon that they can develop and deploy. And tariffs, too. You're 100 percent behind him on his tariffs policy as well. What I would say is we need trade policies that are going to help North Carolina farmers, manufacturers and small businesses.

25:35We need to have a conversation about where those tariffs are going to be. Watley has centered his attacks on Cooper's record on crime, criticizing his rival over a court-ordered settlement that Cooper reached as governor with civil rights groups to reduce the prison population during the COVID era. Behind the numbers are real victims and families who will never be whole. We paid the price when Roy Cooper put criminals before the innocent. 40 years is enough. The centerpiece of the Republican campaign against you is this deal that you had, settlement deal that you reached about the prisoner released, roughly 3 ,500 prisoners released early.

26:15When you look back at the way that that was handled by you and your administration, do you have any regrets by the way you handled that? This is something that the state had to do because the court ordered it. And I think a lot of people believed, if you asked the plaintiffs, they were very frustrated that more weren't released. And this was something that we wanted to do to make sure we work to protect the public. Public safety officers made decisions about this. They followed the lead of President Trump's team. President Trump released 13 ,000 prisoners at least during this COVID era. He signed a bill to do that.

26:55And what's the problem here is that they are lying about all of these cases that they're trying to connect to this. And the trail of lies is long when, in fact, I'm the one who's actually prosecuted violent criminals and put them behind bars. Michael Watley actually appointed a convicted child molester who served six years in prison on the sex offender registry above the objections to many Republicans in his party to a position that would have access to children and teenagers. That's what we need to be talking about. Because some of those who were released did end up committing murders afterwards.

27:36Well, I'm not sure about that. But what I do know is that they made the decisions that they could at the time. Most of the people were toward the very end of their term who would have been out very soon anyway. One of the things that we're hearing a lot from voters who plan to support Roy Cooper is that they think that these attacks on crimes could actually work. I think it's an unfair attack, honestly. Do you think it might work? Probably. Yeah. I think it does work. I think fear-mongering about crime works. I think it's bad, but I think it works. Cooper has found a response, attacking Watley for appointing a man who pleaded guilty to sex crimes to a position in the North Carolina Republican Party.

28:19Roy Cooper's going after you about Harvey West, the appointment of him for the North Carolina GOP. He is, of course, a convicted sex offender. What do you say to him? And do you regret how that was handled? Well, I didn't hire the guy. Absolutely did not hire the guy. He was a volunteer with the party beforehand. But I think when we talk about crime, Roy Cooper is the one with the record. Roy Cooper is the one who let 4 ,200 criminals out. You want Trump to campaign for you here? To win over Trump supporters, Cooper has to make sure his party doesn't bring him down. How much of this has to do with the Democratic brand?

28:52How damaged is a Democratic brand here in North Carolina? No, I think that there are enough people in North Carolina who are skeptical of national Democrats, and that's why we have more success in electing Democrats as governor and attorney general and secretary of state than we do sending them to Washington. I've noticed in your stump speech right now, you really didn't go after President Trump in the way that a lot of Democrats do. A lot of Democrats want to go talk about investigating the president, maybe even impeaching the president. When you hear calls from that within your own party, what do you say?

29:24So Michael Watley says that his agenda is the president's agenda. So I'm able to run against Michael Watley, and all of those things are there. Michael Watley supports the tariffs. He supports the war in Iran. Has he done anything worthy of impeachment in your view? Well, I think the Senate operates as the trier of fact and that kind of thing. So I don't think that's something that I would want to get into right now. We've seen this shift to the left, particularly this election cycle, these Democratic socialist candidates winning in a number of primaries. Does that concern you? Well, I can work within the party and across the aisle with the other party.

30:05And that's what I've had to do here in North Carolina. One of your first votes, if you win, will be whether or not to vote for Chuck Schumer, the Democrat reader. Would you vote for him? Well, first, I've got to get elected. Second, I've made no commitments to anyone. I'll make that decision when I get there. You could have been Kamala Harris' running mate. I was not. Next, our panel weighs in on Trump's new plans in North Carolina. And why is the vice president campaigning in the red state of Kansas this week?

30:38When it's time to scale your business, it's time for Shopify. Get everything you need to grow the way you want. Like, all the way. Stack more sales with the best converting checkout on the planet. Track your cha-chings from every channel right in one spot. And turn real-time reporting into big-time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level. Switch to Shopify. Start your free trial today. The holidays are busy enough. Getting your home ready shouldn't be. From the perfect tree and twinkling lights to festive decor for inside and out, Wayfair has everything you need to get your home holiday ready.

31:20Find furniture, hosting essentials, festive serveware, and more all in one place. So you can spend less time getting ready and more time enjoying the season with the people who make it special. Shop Wayfair.com today to make holiday magic at home. Wayfair, every style, every home. Voters are already mailing in their ballots in North Carolina. one of the battleground states expected to determine the next Senate majority. So as President Trump heads to North Carolina this week, how will it turn? Let's bring back my panel of experts, John Bresnahan. These attacks on crime against Roy Cooper's record that we just saw in my piece in the last segment, we have seen these attacks in Democrats being on the defensive and cycle after cycle.

32:03Sometimes it works. In this case, they're going after Roy Cooper, a deal that he had cut during the COVID year to reduce the prison population. Now, every crime that has been committed, they're essentially linking back, Republicans are, to Roy Cooper. We're seeing these attack ads. Do you think those will work and could make this race a nail-biter? The guy you were interviewed in the street talked about. I mean, look, they run these ads because they're effective, right? You know, it gets to, like, a seminal issue. But I think there's so much this year on the economy and, you know, affordability and prices.

32:34I think it's just hard. Is it enough to get through? I mean, you look at the national polls, crime is a big issue, but widely overwhelmed by the economy and stuff. And I do think that, you know, we were talking after watching your piece. I mean, Watley is not an exciting candidate. He's got this one issue. I do think it's also interesting that when Trump is going down, he's going down for one night, it's a rally, and he's going to Gastonia Airport, which is in Gaston County, which is like overwhelmingly Republican. He's not on the ground there for a couple of days. So, you know, he's there, they're spending money, but are they really going in there?

33:13So it's limited. Well, look, North Carolina is a swing state without swing areas. It's one of those. It's a turnout. Hugely expensive. This isn't the, you know, if you're going to, this is a swing state that like, look, if I'm John Husted, I don't know if I'm bringing Trump into Ohio, but I actually understand Whatley bringing him into North Carolina, because the way you win North Carolina is about is did you turn out your own base and you know I think one of the other hidden issues here is African American turnout. It was through the roof in the south particularly after the voting rights decision you saw a surge in African American turnout in places like Alabama and Georgia and in North Carolina where Democrats out polled Republicans in a lot of these primaries.

33:53That's why I think Cooper is such an why it feels like he may only win by four or five but he feels almost like hard to catch. Because African-American turnout, as long as it stays on the levels it was in the primary, is probably how that tips the balance in North Carolina. And just look at Trump's approval rating in these battleground states. I mean, he is underwater pretty much everywhere, according to a New York Times-Siena poll. And North Carolina, he's 14 points underwater. They're 21 points in Maine. Susan Collins, of course, runs away from Donald Trump here. But you know what's interesting?

34:28You know, when I tried to pin down Watley on the issue of Iran and tariffs, he sidestepped those questions. And you're seeing that, you know, we saw the Republican convention last week. There was not a whole lot of talk about Iran and tariffs. And perhaps those are the two biggest issues. Well, the president brought them up. Right. He brought them up. The other candidates did not, though. Yeah, no, everybody else was pretty quiet on it. At this Republican convention, you might think that everyone on stage was running against Abdul al-Sayed in Michigan. based on their speeches. No one was talking about tariffs.

35:00No one was talking about the war in Iran, except for one man who went on for an hour and 44 minutes. And a lot of it, I was shocked by how much he talked about the war and how much he talked about tariffs and defended his very unpopular policies. These things are an albatross for Republican candidates. And at a time when people care about the cost of living and things being more expensive, the president sort of downplaying those concerns, it just doesn't get it. Can I just say, he has just created a nightmare for everybody that touches I-35, okay? You know I-35 goes from the border of Mexico all the way to the border of Canada, right through the middle of the country.

35:40He has hit them on tariffs, hit them on immigration, hit them on Canada stuff. It has just been, and if you look at it, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota even, right, Right. These are these are the Republicans may win most of those races, but they're all in trouble because of these policies all up by 30. I want to turn to what's happening in Kansas, of all places. This is where J.D. Vance is headed tomorrow for a campaign event. And why Kansas? Look at the map here. Trump won Kansas overwhelmingly back in 2024 by 16 points there on the map. But, you know, you zoom out here. We look at 2022.

36:18Yes, the Senate Republican Jerry Moran won very easily in that race. But some of the ballot initiatives are a little alarming for Republicans. There's an abortion initiative back in 2022 of the abortion rights effort won by 19 points. The governor in that race, Laura Kelly, won narrowly, but still won here. So J.D. Vance, this is the case race against Roger Marshall, Adam Hamilton, Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican senator. Are they really worried about Kansas? Yeah, they are. Because we were talking about this before. The polling in there is nonexistent, the public polling. And the only poll that was out there showed Marshall up by five.

36:56The Democrat, the Reverend Adam Hamilton, he's a good candidate. There was a debate last night and Marshall actually got booed. So, I mean, he backed away from Trump's$5 ,000 dividend payment after he supported it. So, like, and then, you know, they've got a tariff issue. Bombardier has, Trump is threatening to cut off sales for the Canadian airplane manufacturer. Well, they're a big employer in Kansas. And then there's beef imports, another issue. You're talking about this. I mean, look, everything Trump is killing these guys on these big issues that are the number one issues with the voters.

37:34He won't let go of Iran. He won't let go of tariffs. He won't let go of all this other stuff. And there's been a slow change in Kansas. I've always said Kansas and Missouri have been switching places. Missouri gets redder. Kansas gets, because of the Kansas City suburbs. This is going to be a very close scenario. Yeah, no question about it. All right, before we go to break, we have an update on Republican congressman in Wisconsin candidate for governor, Tom Tiffany, who's recovering after his plane was forced to make an emergency landing on a lake in Wisconsin. In a social media post, Tiffany said that the plane he was on lost power yesterday as it approached the airport.

38:08That's when the pilot was forced to make an emergency landing in Lake Wausau. And the pilot got out and swam to shallow water where they waited for rescuers. Audio captures the dramatic moments as first responders rush to their aid. We have two victims in the water. We're just pulling them out now. When feasible, make sure they're all accounted for out of that plane. The FAA is expected to lead the investigation to what caused the emergency landing. All right, coming up for us, the Emmys. Well, they're tomorrow night. So what are TV's biggest stars going to do? We go after President Trump. Our report next.

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39:22Tomorrow, the 78th Annual Emmy Awards takes center stage in Los Angeles. And as politics have become deeply embedded in film and TV, Will the biggest stars use the stage to take on President Trump, rail about immigration or even Gaza, or any number of topics? Joining me now is CNN's Elizabeth Wagmeister. So Elizabeth, what will you be watching for this year? Manu, Mariska Hargitay from Law & Order is hosting, so NBC clearly is not going for the politics that some comedians might bring as hosts. But as we know, it's often the winners that get political at the podium. F*** ICE and free Palestine, thank you.

40:01That was Hannah Einbinder last year, not holding back. And of course she's nominated again this year for Hacks' final season. So expect at least one hot mic moment if she wins. And of course look to the red carpet as well. That's where stars make a statement with their looks. Einbinder's Hacks co-star Meg Stalter, who's nominated for her first Emmy this year, wore an outfit to last year's show calling for a ceasefire in the Middle East. Javier Bardem made headlines not just for what he wore, but for a series of interviews he gave not about his nomination, but about Gaza on the red carpet. Now, Bardem is not nominated this year, but Mark Ruffalo is, and we all know how outspoken he is.

40:42Not just on Israel and Gaza, but he's also been leading Hollywood's charge to block the Paramount-Warner Brothers Discovery merger, the latter being the parent company of CNN. Now, Manu, it's not just the Emmys. In recent years, stars have increasingly utilized award shows for their activism. Everything from the Me Too movement to protesting ICE to Trump. So we shall see. But this is Hollywood, and anything can happen. Yes, indeed, Elizabeth Weich. Thank you so much for that. And to see how it all plays out tomorrow, tune in to CNN and Variety's Red Carpet Live, TV's biggest night streaming live tomorrow with an all-access subscription.

41:21And that's it for Inside Politics Sunday. Up next, State of the Union with Jake Tapper and Dana Bass. Jake's guests include House Speaker Mike Johnson, Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time.

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