House Democrats Poised for Biggest Majority in 16 Years

0:01Today, even more Republican incumbents have reason to fret. A new analysis from Cook says House Democrats won't just win, they could have their biggest majority in 16 years. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

0:23There are 11 days until the election and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and all around the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. The Cook Political Report is moving 19, count them, 19 House races towards Democrats. That includes moving Republican incumbents Juan Siskamani, Gabe Evans, Jen Kiggins and Derek Van Orden from toss-up to lean Democrats. And open Republican seats in Kentucky and Texas from lean Republican to toss-up. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries told Manu Raju yesterday he's confident about taking the majority.

1:07It's very likely we're going to get this done. We have extraordinary candidates. The issue environment is clearly on our side. And the American people clearly and decisively have concluded that Democrats, not Republicans, are best positioned to deal with the issues they want addressed related to the economy, to combating inflation, and to lowering the high cost of living. Cook is now predicting a Democratic pickup between 12 and 22 House seats. Elon Musk has now given nearly half a billion dollars to Republicans just this cycle. The world's richest man is by far the largest donor in the midterm races and one of the largest political donors ever.

1:54Much of that is going to the Texas Senate race, where Musk is trying to help Ken Paxton over the finish line. And now Democrat James Tallarico is hoping to use that against his opponent. He's almost single-handedly bankrolling the effort to install Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate. But why is the world's first trillionaire doing this? Elon wants to buy up our land. He wants to buy up our water. And now he wants to buy his own personal U.S. Senator. Let's remind Elon, Texas is not for sale. And the tale of the two Dan Sullivans has taken another turn. The Trump administration is preemptively suing the state of Alaska, seeking to block certification if its Senate results of the incumbent, Dan S.

2:45Sullivan, turn out to be that he loses. The lawsuit says that Dan J. Sullivan, being on the ballot, will confuse voters and could swing the election to Democrat Mary Paltola. The Alaskan Supreme Court already rejected efforts to remove Dan J. Sullivan, the non-incumbent senator, from the ballot. And this isn't what Mike Rogers or John Husted wanted to see. Gas prices in Michigan and Ohio are exploding this week. AAA says the average price of gas in Michigan has surged by 33 cents in two days to$4.77 a gallon. in Ohio. Prices have surged by 39 cents to$4.37 a gallon. Analysts say the reason isn't Iran, but an outage at an oil refinery in Illinois.

3:36I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters today, including Erin Covey, with the Cook Political Report to walk us through the ratings that you guys just put out. We just gave the top lines. What else do you want us to know? Well, the bulk of these seats that we're moving are in states like Texas and North Carolina, where the statewide factors are really hampering Republican enthusiasm. And that has a trickle-down effect on all of these House races. We moved four seats in Texas, a column to the left. These are all seats that have pretty significant Hispanic populations as well, where, of course, we're seeing really dramatic reversion among voters who voted for Trump by wide margins in 2024, but are now swinging back towards Democrats.

4:18And it's really the incumbents. This is how we started this program. And we're going to show you who we're talking about. Four Republican incumbents, most of whom are already in swing seats, are now moving from toss-up to lean Democrat. Juan Siskimani, Republican, now lean Dem. Gabe Evans, lean Dem. Jen Kiggins, lean Dem. Derek Van Orden, lean Dem. lean Dem. And then if you go down to the next tier, you have one, two, three, four, five that also are moving from a more comfortable place as Republicans towards the Democrats. Yeah. Three of the members who were moving into the lean Democrat column, they're sitting in seats that Trump won by less than five points in 2020.

5:04So we're talking about Begich? We're talking about Siskamani. Oh, I see the incumbents. and Evans, they are in very tough seats. Those are true swing seats. They really are. And even if they are overperforming what a generic Republican is going to do in that seat, they're still the underdogs. Yeah. And then I just want to go to Texas. You were talking about some of the races that have moved. Another way to look at it, which we have up on the screen, is in Texas and in Florida, we know that at the behest of the White House, these states engaged in mid-decade gerrymandering with the hopes of turning seats red even before people started voting.

5:45It doesn't look like that's the way it's headed right now. Now, again, it's early. People are just starting to vote, but they were hoping for five and only one, Texas 32, is solid GOP. And in Florida, only one, Florida 9, is even likely GOP. Yeah, I mean, these gerrymanders, it's not like they have backfired for Republicans in the sense that they're better off than they were before they redrew the seats, but they're not performing as well as they'd hoped because the environment is so bad for them right now. And so in Florida, I think going into this, Republicans were aware that all four of these seats still had the potential to be competitive.

6:22And to be clear, they could end up picking up three out of four of these seats, but they're going to be much closer, much more expensive races than they had anticipated this spring. David? I like the way you put it because, yes, Republicans are going to get a boost from this. But they did, if you heard Mike Johnson talk about it, this was going to lock up the House. And it didn't lock up the House. And it didn't, they were spending tens of millions of dollars, I think if you add it all up, on seats that they thought they could walk away from. They also have candidates who were not prepared to run in a tough environment.

6:53This is a case in North Carolina, where, especially the Appalachian District outside Asheville, drawn to elect a Republican, elected two Republicans who resigned because of scandals, or lost because of scandal, resigned because of scandal. And you have a Republican who's just never had to work for it before and never had to raise that much money, and a Democrat who was ready for the climate. This is what Democrats were saying. Vakim Jeffries, this is what recruitment is for. It doesn't work if it turns against you like it did in 2020. They just don't see the same factors coming out for Republicans as happened in 2020.

7:25There is no Donald Trump on the ballot to convince these people, so they cannot ride his goad tails. It's so fascinating because whenever you've been reporting on what is the political strategy of the White House and the Republicans, you would often hear it's the maps. It's also redistricting. It's not just going out and talking about this issue or this issue. It's the structure, right? And the fact that the frustration across the country is so high that it's actually overcoming the changes they made to the structure, that really tells a story of this election cycle. You mentioned Texas as well.

7:58I think you mentioned the Hispanic vote. That's a good example where You had a coalition that had moved towards the president, but then you had the frustration with his immigration policies going above and beyond what people expected. That's according to reporting and polls. You combine that with the economic frustration and you have the current environment that you're at. Well, that's why, you know, when you talk to sources around the White House and Trump's allies and advisors, it really feels as though James Blair is going to get the brunt of this when Republicans likely lose the House. And that's because he was not only the brains behind the redistricting, but also was proudly the brains behind the redistricting.

8:35Now, again, you know, as both of you have noted, it's not necessarily that down the road they won't pick up more seats. They could still pick up the seats in Florida. It's just the climate. And so regardless of the strategy still would have held had they done it. I mean, we've talked about it for months, how this was going to change the electorate, that this was giving Republicans picking up seats and all these things. But the climate in the country is so bad and one that really the White House and the political operation did not anticipate. Right. I mean, when James Blair and others at the White House pushed for this redistricting, they didn't anticipate the ramifications of an Iran war that would still be going on now.

9:13The tariffs may be a little bit different. I want to read a quote from Mike Johnson. You talked about Mike Johnson saying, you know, we're going to be fine in Texas. Well, let's look at what he's saying right now about the overall view, despite the ratings that you just showed us. This is to Punchbowl. I want you to record that I'm laughing out loud about that. Them, meaning Democrats, projecting 230 seats is hilarious. There is no way. It is true that some Democrats are getting so bullish that 230 is kind of maybe the magic number, because if you look back at the big gains that Democrats made in the last two elections where they made big gains, it was in that 230, 231, 232 kind of ballpark.

10:02And he's being very bullish on the fact that that's not going to happen. I mean, that's quite bullish. That's the center of our range right now. We have it set at Democrats picking up 227 to 237 seats, which, you know, that's only 12 to 22 seats they're picking up. It's not like this wave is going to result in Democrats flipping 40 seats, despite what some of them might be hoping for. But they're starting at such a high floor compared to where they were at going into the 2018 and 2006 midterms. They already have 215 seats. They don't need to pick up a lot to get to the magic number. Yeah, well, we'll see.

10:37We'll see who's right there. Don't go anywhere because we've got breaking news. Vivek Ramaswamy just spoke to reporters about his controversial ad that President Trump is getting asked about again and again. Plus, are Republicans in danger of losing ground they've recently gained with a key demographic? We were just talking about it. Latino voters. We're talking to two top political advisers, Republican and Democrat, about that. Stay with us.

11:09Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast, All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. My guest is Lil Jon. He's a rapper, DJ, and producer known for hits like Get Low and Turn Down for What. In February 2026, his 27-year-old son Nathan went missing near Nathan's home in Georgia. Three days later, his body was found in a pond nearby. eye. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me. It takes time to heal and I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn. I needed to laugh again. I needed to be silly and interact with people and feel other people's energy and make people happy too.

11:54We have to share so other people can see that they can get through it too. Talking grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast. You may have noticed gambling doesn't require a casino anymore. You can just open up your phone. It's designed to keep us coming back or maybe never even leaving in the first place. We're going to talk to Dr. Timothy Fong, co-director of UCLA's gambling studies program. You're going to learn what your brain is really chasing when you place a bet, and also importantly, how to keep the game from playing you.

12:35Gambling addiction, gambling disorder is the hidden addiction. You can't smell it, you can't taste it, you can't see it, you can't have a urine drug test. Who are we talking about here, Professor? Who's the most likely demographic to be affected by this? Literally any single human on earth. Listen to Chasing Life, streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts. Breaking news in Ohio, where the Republican candidate for governor, Vivek Ramaswamy, just defended his campaign's ad against his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. The ad, of course, features Acton's estranged mother saying that she lies. CNN's Lauren Fox is in Strongsville, Ohio, where the candidate spoke to reporters.

13:17What did Vivek Ramaswamy say, Lauren? Yeah, essentially he's standing down, standing by this ad, excuse me, Dana, and he's doubling down on it, saying that he respectfully disagrees with Governor Mike DeWine's comments yesterday that he needed to take this ad down. He said that the media hasn't covered it every single time that one of their attack ads has gone after him or his family, and he therefore thinks that this ad should remain on air. He made it very clear, and he even talked about Donald Trump's comments supporting him, that He is standing by it. I do want to point out that I asked him specifically about whether or not he has any doubts about Amy Acton's story from her childhood.

13:59And if he has any doubts that she was sexually abused by her stepfather, which a grand jury found him guilty of. And he really deflected that question. But I just want to also say that this is one of those moments where he wasn't going to take questions from reporters, Dana. And then essentially we were all waiting for him after this event. and he did stop and take two questions. But here's what he said about why he is standing by this ad. Take a listen. Her mother has spoken since 2020. I've never met Amy Acton. I've never met or spoken to her mother. But I do think that if a candidate has repeatedly told lies in this campaign, as she has, and she is called out for it by a lot of people who are close to her, from the state physicians to people who have worked for her, to now another person who's close for her, I think that in the standard of political advertising that they have used and that the media regularly accepts, I think it is absolutely acceptable for voters to hear and make a decision for themselves.

14:59And you heard there, Dana, he said that it's totally appropriate to use people who are close to Amy Acton who are calling her a liar. I would just point out that Amy Acton has said herself she has not seen her mother since she was 12 years old and she was taken from her custody. Dana? Lauren, thank you so much for getting that new reaction, or maybe even action, from Vivek Ramaswamy. Appreciate it. And Zolan, this is, and I'm going to play some of President Trump this morning, but this is part of the current Trump-esque playbook, which you can almost see the president directing from the Oval Office or even from the South Lawn, which is go for it, go big, Roy Cohen, don't take your foot off the gas, but also do it so that you get some credit or maybe even get some new votes from people who are exhausted by the economy and other reasons, don't want to vote, from the conservative base.

16:04That is the strategy right now from Vivek Ramaswamy with the help from the president. Agreed. It's that sort of Rory Cohn sort of fight, fight, fight, don't give in. And turn it into a, this is actually us versus the Democrats in the media who are attacking us over this. Correct. A couple things that are different, though, about this scenario. One, the actual issue is incredibly sensitive. Like, we shouldn't get lost in that just as we talk about the politics of this. This actually has to do with sexual abuse, right, and claims of sexual abuse. Two, this isn't just Democrats in the media. You've had a number of Republicans that have come out and criticized this, criticized the continued running of this ad.

16:43In fact, effectively, it sort of seems like it's J.D. Vance, Ramaswamy, and Donald Trump on one side, and a lot of people expressing concerns about it, both Republicans and Democrats on the other, including Republicans in Ohio. The other thing that's different about this that I just find interesting is usually you might have the candidate that's under scrutiny reach out to Donald Trump, Donald Trump be the person to double down, and then everyone follow his lead. This one was a little different where you had the vice president actually come out and double down on it. Then Donald Trump. And now you have Ramaswamy as well doubling down.

17:15I mean, it was expected once Trump leaned into this that you wouldn't see Ramaswamy sort of back away. Trump still has takes the lead on the Democratic Party or on the Republican Party has a grip on it. But this is a different one. This is a different scenario here. Let's listen to a little bit of the president this morning as he was leaving for Florida. Now that you know the back story about Amy Acton and her stepfather and why she hasn't talked to her mom for so long, her stepfather was indicted for rape. Now that you know all that, sir, do you change your mind about the ad by her after her husband had rape?

17:53You don't know that. You don't know that. You don't know anything. Her mother stood by, didn't stand by. Her mother went on television and said that the daughter who's running for governor of Ohio is a liar and a bad person. And that's all I know. He keeps comparing this to a situation if his own mother went out and criticized, which he is he knows. He's conflating. He's intentionally conflating what a regular run of the mill mother would or wouldn't do. with regard to their daughter versus what we saw in this ad. And I'm going to play it. And I want people, people can judge for themselves whether they think that she looks as credible and earnest as the president is alleging.

18:42My daughter needs help. And she can't help you if she needs help herself. People can change. But first, they have to tell the truth. and my daughter still isn't doing that. Don't vote for people who lie. I'd say a couple things. I mean, Amy Acton hasn't spoken to her mother in 50 years because of this, because her mother stayed married to the man who was indicted for sexually abusing her. She has no relationship with this woman. And, I mean, Donald Trump is really presenting here a Donald Trump special when he is up there trying to defend this ad, which is, take out the part that is sensitive, that's making people's skin crawl, that is uncomfortable, that is why people are asking them to take down the ad, leave it out completely, say you don't know anything about it, and then turn it into a completely different issue, which is a mother saying that their own daughter is a liar without any of the backstory.

19:37He wants to continue to double down on this, to say those lines over and over again, because he knows that people listen when he is speaking. And he's going to take out anything that makes this sensitive to double down on this because he wants the candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, to win and he wants this ad out there. He knows exactly what this is. First of all, it's been told to him a dozen times by reporters, this idea that every single day he's shocked to hear the news. It's like, we still heard it yesterday. People were telling him. It's typical Trump though, too. Right, exactly. When it comes to the sensitive issues or getting asked questions about it, he sort of acts like a bystander or a spectator to the event, but then he's still willing to lean But let's remember why he's framing it this way and why Ramaswamy is framing it as this is just an example of a double standard by the Democrats, by the media.

20:27It is all an attempt to get, and I said it before, I just want to emphasize this because this is what it's all about. And it's dirty campaigning to do that. But this is what's going on with just 11 days left. he's behind in the polls and wants to try to goose that Republican vote that is depressed. Yeah, and I can step back to what the Ramaswamy had been doing this year that had not been pushing him ahead in a state the president won by double digits. An argument he'd made on the air quite a lot, made at rallies quite a lot, is that Amy Acton was basically emotionally incontinent and has problems with drinking.

21:01There was one ad, which Republicans did not condemn, they were not as offended by that, that has a stand-in for Amy Acton falling asleep drunk on a couch. And so he has been trying to basically, this is in the vein of what he's been campaigning about, that he is a strong, fast-talking business leader. She's incompetent. That's totally been lost by the backlash to this ad. And you know there was a backlash because there were a few hours when this was released before people knew it was from the campaign itself. And if you talk to Republicans that day, they said, well, maybe it's not him. That sounds like such a crazy thing to do.

21:31But it is trying to build on a very negative strategy. The coming back and saying, I only have to do this because she won't debate me or because she's so mean to me on her TV ads. He says that she calls him a liar and nobody cares. Yeah, so I'm glad we've established that nobody should vote for liars in American politics. But he's been trying to do this all year. He's trying to stick to it. His closing message is not his economic agenda. It's this. And can any Republican who's not Donald Trump with— Trump's wealth is famous because of the things he built. Ramaswamy's wealth is famous because he's very good at getting capital investment for a pharma company.

22:05he's struggled to convince people he's not a sleazy candidate. And this is why it's become a problem for him. I think when Mike DeWine talks about it in more of an outrage way than he did about his other ads, that's why. Let me just, as we go to break, show everybody the mood music for Ohio voters with all of this going on. And that is the price of gas. $4.37 a gallon, up 33 cents in only two days. We don't have it, but I'm telling you that is what it is. And it's not good. And that is the economic reality in Ohio, where the president has done extremely well for 10 years. All right, up next, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces a tough reelection.

22:43Is her challenger a Democratic socialist, a capitalist, both? CNN's Alex Michelson sat down with Nithya Rahman and joins us next.

23:01LOS ANGELES MAYOR KAREN BASS IS FACING A TOUGH FIGHT FOR RE-ELECTION JUST FOUR YEARS AFTER BECOMING THE CITY'S FIRST FEMALE MAYOR. HER CHALLENGER, NITHIA RAHMAN, IS A MEMBER OF BOTH THE L.A. CITY COUNCIL AND THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA. POLLING LAST MONTH SHOWED RAHMAN WITH AN EDGE. Among the issues at hand, homelessness and affordability, both very present present rather in a pitch by Bass overnight. Mayor Karen Bass taking action in her first day on the job. Day one before even sitting down behind her new desk at City Hall. I think that people should be housed. This area here is in Nithya Rahman's district.

23:43We took action. We cleared this encampment. We got people housed. The day of the operation, I was here. The councilwoman didn't even bother showing up. Hard to believe they were friends not too long ago, Alex. Thank you so much for being here. I really appreciate it. What is happening in this tight race?

24:07Yeah, and that Rahman endorsed Bass the first time around and then decided to run at the very last second. So what's happening if you look at the recent polls, two things are true. Raman is ahead in every recent poll, but also the number of undecided is big enough where Bass could potentially win still. Bass recently has been leaning into comments that Raman has made about policing to try to shore up some support, maybe more on the right, including comments that Raman made to me earlier this week when I asked her, Who's an example of a police chief that you like or respect? And she said, I don't know.

24:45Bass put out ads about that right now, is literally doing an event at LAPD headquarters, standing next to the chief to talk about that issue of policing. But on the issue of homelessness, Bass has plenty of vulnerability. In 2026, when she, where in 2022, she took over as mayor. Shortly after that, she sat down with Jake Tapper and said she would end street homelessness by 2026. The number has gone up. Unsheltered homelessness has gone up 8 percent this year alone. It went down in that same period in Nithya Rahman's district. Rahman pointing that out as an example of why she should be given the keys to the city of Los Angeles and deal with the issue of homelessness.

25:29One of the big questions is Raman and the fact that she comes from the Democratic Socialist Party. You spoke to her. What did she say about that? Well, I asked her, are you L.A.'s Zoran Mandani? And she said, I'm L.A.'s Nithya Raman. And so I tried to get some clarity on where she agrees or disagrees with the Democratic Socialists of America. Watch this. Do you agree with abolishing the police? Do you agree with abolishing prisons? No. Do you agree with getting rid of the Senate? No. Do you agree with capitalism? Are you a capitalist? I am a capitalist, and I'm also a democratic socialist. I want the city to work, and when the government is doing its job, it needs to work really effectively, and we need to make sure capitalism works without harm to workers, without worker exploitation without exploitation of poor people.

26:28That's what I'm going to focus on. So you are a capitalist? I'm a capitalist and a democratic socialist. There's a lot of people who hear that. That sounds confusing. I don't, you know, I think democratic socialism is a big tent. The DSA is a big tent organization. And I'm in part of that tent. And I think a lot of Angelenos are in that tent with me. So there's an interesting conundrum, Dana, in that LA is an incredibly progressive city. There are plenty of members of the DSA that are looking for somebody to back those policies. But then there's also folks that voted for Spencer Pratt, the reality star, people member he ran in the primary, that don't really like either one of these candidates and are looking for some place to go.

27:10And so leaning in too much to the idea of the DSA may alienate those folks who are looking for a political home. Big question is whether they're going to vote at all. Alex, thank you. Don't miss. The story is with Alex Michelson. That's tonight at 9 p.m. Pacific, midnight Eastern time. He is sitting down with Karen Bass, who, as we discussed, is fighting for re-election as L.A. mayor. I just want to do a quick correction to something Lauren Fox said in our last segment. Amy Acton's stepfather was not convicted, but he was indicted by a grand jury on charges of sexually abusing Amy Acton. He pleaded not guilty, but fled the state before a trial could begin and remained at large.

27:50until his death in 2004. Coming up are the Latino votes who swung to President Trump in 2024, ready to swing back to Democrats in 2026. Two key strategists are here. We'll talk after the break.

28:15Democrats' hopes to retake the House and the Senate come down to reversing gains President Trump made two years ago with many key demographics, including Latinos. Look at this trend line. Joe Biden won Latinos by 33 percentage points in 2020. Democrats won by 21 percentage points in the 22 midterms. Then, two years ago, Kamala Harris carried the group with just 5 % of the vote. President Trump is now massively underwater, though, with Latino voters. On every issue, election integrity, health care, foreign affairs, immigration, the economy, and inflation. This morning, the president talked about this demographic.

29:02Hispanic voters have been great to me, but I've been great to them too. I'm joined by two veteran strategists, 2024 Trump campaign advisor Brian Lanza and Democratic strategist Maria Cardona. Hi, guys. It's good to see you. Brian, we talked about it. Everybody talked about those huge gains that the president made, not just in Texas, but elsewhere with Latino voters. And if you look at the polls, there's been a snapback. Why? Inflation. You know, I think the good part for the Republican Party with respect to Latinos bouncing back and forth, it shows that they're sort of becoming more economical in their decision making for this.

29:42And so in 2004, Latinos were frustrated with Joe Biden. They were frustrated with inflation. They were frustrated with the direction it was going. And they were nostalgic to what it was under Trump 1, where they had record, you know, they had a lowest unemployment, in a long time. They had new businesses opening, so the deregulation was working. And so I think from our standpoint, you know, it's inflation is clearly hurting, you know, cost of living is hurting, but at the end of the day, it shows the Latinos have sort of sophisticated this electorate and have to focus more on pocketbook issues, which puts them more aligned with us in the long run than the short-term election.

30:15And you don't put immigration enforcement interior, not the border, but interior. You know, I come from California, so I saw the mistakes that took place with Proposition 187. Clearly the rhetoric has gotten hot about it. It has caused damage. Some of it will take time to repair. But I think the example what Trump showed, and I come from California where Republicans thought Latinos would never make their way back. And they went to Trump. They went to Trump because of the dire economic condition that existed for them. And so what we know that in the long run, Dem policies sort of run counter to the entrepreneur spirit of Latinos.

30:47And if we're having that economic conversation day in and day out for elections, we're going to be in a much stronger position. But we do have to move beyond the implementation policies, because the policy itself is popular. Everybody wants to deport illegal aliens. Criminal aliens need to get out of our streets. But the implementation of the policy is just to - The arrests. Yeah, correct. So there's definitely truth in what Brian said in terms of inflation and the economy. The problem is, is that when you want to connect and reach out and really get the Latino vote, you have to have trust. They trusted Trump and Republicans in 2024 on the issue of the economy and on the issue of immigration.

31:27Trump said, I'm going to deport the most violent. I'm going to deport those that are doing us harm. Latinos never imagined that he was talking about their own family. And so immigration has absolutely become this issue of a huge and very personal deep betrayal in the community. In the Latino community, people are afraid to go out. There are businesses that have failed because, A, they don't have customers, and they don't have workers because they've been deported many times. They've been deported with legal status to countries that they don't even know. And so on those three issues, the economy, inflation, and immigration, they feel this deep sense of betrayal.

32:09Well, we had a report from John King from southeast Texas where he was talking to a Latina store owner who said exactly that. I want to dig in, Maria, a little bit more on the Texas Senate race. Because, as I mentioned, in Texas, Latinos broke four Trump by 10 points. It was pretty big. And those same voters could help flip the Senate seat to Democrats. But are you concerned that this is, even if it's just, you know, half of that, Yeah, that is just short term. It's just anti-Trump and that your party isn't giving them a reason to vote for as opposed to against. I think we should always be concerned because Latinos are a group of voters.

32:55And this is what I have always told my party. They are not part of our base. They have always been some of the swingiest voters that there are. When I first started working on the Latino vote, it was under George W. Bush. and he was great and he got 44 % of the Latino vote back when he first won election, right? So this is not a group of voters that we should ever take for granted and that had been happening in these last cycles. What I'm loving about this cycle, Dana, is that Democrats understood that. They understood their homework and many candidates, including Tallarico, including Gina Hinojosa, have been very early on reaching out to Latino voters on Spanish-language television, radio, digitally, in English, in Spanglish, bilingually, right, in all the places where they live, and talking about these very personal messages and letting them know what Democrats are doing, to your point, about this can't be just anti-Trump.

33:51They are offering solutions. Let's look at two of the House districts in Texas. Obviously, this isn't just about Texas, but Texas is a big battleground here. Texas 34, Vicente Gonzalez, it's a D plus seven. Texas 35, Carlos de la Cruz, there's no clear leader. 34, Texas 34, Brian, is 98 % Hispanic. Texas 35 is 39 % Hispanic. How do you feel about Republicans' chances of holding both of those, either of those? Listen, I think this election cycle, it's tough. But I would always make the case that, you know, anytime there's a midterm for a president, and it's always going to be challenging, especially when the economic conditions don't exist.

34:31But I think for us, you have to look, you know, the election's in two weeks. It's important not to look beyond it. But when you're analyzing Latino trends, you sort of look long term. And you're right, Latino trends have been moving towards the Republican Party, away from Democrats, because they have been ignored. And some of the policies didn't line up. They weren't priority to the Democratic Party. And we make them. We have to have the appeal. The vast majority of Latinos who come to this country, they come here for economic opportunity. They line up with who we are. They're very conservative.

34:58They're rooted in family. Most immigrants are very conservative. So I think it's a matter of getting out there, delivering an economic message, but you have to get away from the rhetoric that's taking place regarding immigration. I come from California. You saw the Latino community die for Republicans for nearly 25 years as a result of that rhetoric. I think we're going to have an opportunity at a national level because Latinos, you know, the Latinos in California are definitely different than Latinos in Texas. Final word. On the economy, I think Republicans have a big problem because, for example, the big, horrible bill, that stripped health care from millions of Americans, many of them Latinos, because a lot of Latinos are on Medicaid.

35:33A lot of Latinos were dependent on the Affordable Care Act subsidies. Republicans took that away. This is something that Latinos will see, and they will see that as, again, another betrayal. It's so nice to talk to two nice human beings who are on other sides, opposite sides of the aisle, who like each other and can have a real great strategic conversation. Gracias, Dana. De nada. Okay. Ken, a little bit of Barack Obama's hope translate to Democratic votes in three key states. We're going to drop by David Chanlian's office. There he is. Hi, David. He's going to give us the Obama itinerary right there, right there in the bureau chief's office.

36:17Inside Scoop. Stay with us.

36:28He's been out of office for a decade, but many Democrats think he is still their best messenger. It's former President Barack Obama, and he is going to hit the campaign trail this weekend in Michigan and Ohio and will be in Georgia next week. So what is the strategy behind where specifically he's going to go in these states? Who is trying to reach which voters? Let's go to our political director and Washington bureau chief who's in his office. Hi, David. What's the answer to that question? Hi, Dana. How are you? Hi. What do we think about this Obama trip? Who's he really trying to reach? Well, I think there's sort of a macro way to look at it and a micro way.

37:11Macro, obviously, in an attention economy, just having him out on the trail, he is somebody who can command attention. You know, Donald Trump does that on the right right now as the incumbent president. His rallies, where he goes, has sort of dominated a lot of the media coverage conversation. And Obama getting in the game will help Democrats in that front. But you are right. There is obviously also a micro component. And look at where he's going. So in Cleveland and Detroit tomorrow, obviously, he is attempting to get black vote turnout in these Democratic bastions. in these two battleground states.

37:49And I would note, Dana, that in Donald Trump's three successive elections, he has improved his share of the vote in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, where Cleveland is, and in Wayne County, Michigan, where Detroit is. Each time he was on the ballot, he actually got a slight uptick in his share of the vote in those counties. And I think part of Obama getting out there in those places is to try and push back that trend. So let me just take Wayne County, where Detroit is. I interviewed Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate, last weekend and asked him about this Obama trip, especially since one of the things that Rogers is doing is trying to build what he calls a new coalition that includes black voters who traditionally vote for Democrats who might not be interested in El Syed.

38:36And I said, well, what about Obama? Isn't that going to blunt your efforts? And his answer was, well, of course, they love Obama, but it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to vote the way he says. I know that's probably unanswerable for you, but what do you think about that comment? Yeah. I mean, that's certainly true. But I think, no doubt, if you are El-Sayed, you're going to want Obama there to try and do everything possible if this has especially been a potential sore spot. And in fact, look at the polling on this. There was a Fox News poll out at the end of September, and you could see the crosstab of the African-American vote in the Michigan Senate race.

39:16And I have it up on my screen here. It was 77 percent, Abdul El-Sayed, 22 percent of likely black voters for Mike Rogers. Compare that to the exit poll two years ago when Rogers was on the ballot against Alyssa Slotkin. Rogers got 12 percent of the African-American vote in Michigan two years ago when he was the candidate. So if this Fox poll is indicating that there is a potential for a greater share of African-American vote, there's no doubt that Obama being there is the kind of thing you want to sort of unload from your arsenal if you're al-Sayed to try and mitigate against that. Yeah. And if it doesn't change, if that is the trend in a razor thin race, that could be the deciding factor or maybe one of many deciding factors.

39:59David, I love that office. I'll come see you after the show. Thanks, Dana. Okay. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. Join me on State of the Union this Sunday. Pennsylvania's Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro will be with me at 9 a.m. and 12 noon Eastern. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

40:22I'm Adi Cornish. I'm Ari Shapiro, and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend. Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer blogger. But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who at this point kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is... Is fashion terrible now?

40:52Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches and then they make it over and over and over again. The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the Internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.