More Bad News for GOP 

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1:03A stinging blow to House Republicans as new election ratings break overwhelmingly in Democrats favor. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:22There are 25 days until the election and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power in Washington and across the country. For House Republicans, the hits keep coming. Today, the Cook Political Report is revising its election forecast, moving 18 House races in Democrats' favor. That includes four Republican-held seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, shifting from toss-up races to lean Democratic. Cook now projects Democrats will gain between nine and 19 seats, more than enough to flip control of the House. The editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, joins me now.

2:08Amy, thank you so much for being here. First kind of big picture, what is the trend that you are seeing that is making you at Cook move these races towards the Democrats?

2:21Amy Walter: Yeah, Dana, you know, we've obviously been seeing an environment for months now that favors Democrats. But in the early part of the fall, we also know that Republicans spent a whole lot of money arguing that that might be enough to help shore up their most vulnerable seats. Well, here we are 25 days from the election, and it's pretty clear that even all that spending isn't able to stop what is really a building tied here against Republicans. Iowa, Pennsylvania, states and the districts in those states, which are traditionally swingier districts, now look like they're leaning in Democrats' favor.

3:06Amy Walter: And the bottom line, Dana, when we think about just what election night looks like, is the races now in play are those that traditionally we wouldn't be talking about. They're in deep red territory, including some districts that Trump won by double digits. And just to put a finer point on the money advantage that Republicans have, like we cannot emphasize this enough. It's about$200 million in key House races. That's not the advantage, but that's what Republicans have spent. And not only are you showing that it hasn't moved the needle towards them, the needle is being overwhelmed in the opposite direction.

3:49Yeah, by the environment.

3:51Amy Walter: The other piece, Dana, that I think is important here when you look at our ratings is also included in these most vulnerable districts or districts that could go Democrats way are a lot of seats that Republicans redrew this cycle to favor Republican candidates. districts in Florida, Texas, Ohio, that we're supposed to, and North Carolina, that we're supposed to put Republicans pretty safely in the driver's seat. We have all of those seats right now sitting either in toss-up or leaning towards Democrats. So it's not just that Republicans are having challenges on defense. Their offensive opportunities are also fading away.

4:40Yeah. And just looking at some of these, we just had up on the screen, for example, some in Nevada and New York, Tom Suozzi, for example, Laura Gillen. Those were the races that just two years ago were the sort of swingiest of House districts. and what you are saying and what you are seeing. And that's the reason why you've moved them from lean D to likely D is because that's not even where the fight is. The fight is as just to underscore what you said in really red areas. Right.

5:14Amy Walter: Which, of course, is what's happening on the Senate side as well. I mean, from the very beginning of this cycle, Dana, you and I have talked about this. You talk about this on your show all the time. The advantage that Republicans came into this election with, the biggest advantages they had were money and infrastructure. The districts and states that Democrats would need to win in order to win the Senate, make big gains in the House, were districts that Trump won by more than five points or up to 10, 15 points. Well, right now, we're in those territories, obviously on the Senate side and on the House side as well.

5:52Amy Walter: And as I said, many of those 10 plus districts or, you know, those districts Trump won by big margins are the ones that Republicans redrew to their benefit. You know, if we can put up on the screen before I let you go the one that starts with Ryan McKenzie, Pennsylvania 7, and Scott Perry, Pennsylvania 10. I want to talk to you about that because, you know, one of the storylines in the primary season was what's happening inside the Democratic Party and whether or not Democrats in many areas were electing candidates that didn't sort of fit the district. I'm in Michigan today. This is a statewide question of whether somebody on the progressive left can win in a purple district.

6:37But I want to talk about Pennsylvania because in those first two seats that we're seeing there, those are incumbent Republicans. Democrats in Pennsylvania, like Josh Shapiro, took great pride in saying that they helped elect Democrats who more fit the district, meaning they are more moderate Democrats. That has got to be a big factor here.

7:00Amy Walter: Yeah, there's no doubt that the quality of the Democratic candidate matters. And these are the other challenge, you know, in that seventh district, as you pointed out, this is one of the swingiest districts in the entire country. This has gone back and forth or the incumbent wins by a very narrow margin every time. So in a difficult environment, those are really hard for an incumbent to hold on. The 10th is also interesting. This is traditionally Republican territory in and around Harrisburg. But what is happening here is two things. One, the district has been moving more Democratic over the past few years, even as some parts of Pennsylvania are moving right, this part of the state moving a little more towards Democrats.

7:44Amy Walter: And Republicans have an incumbent, Scott Perry, somebody who has his own political baggage. And so you put those two things together, that makes for a very difficult hold for Republicans. Yeah. And as I let you go, we're just looking back on that same screen. Bill Huizinga, who is a Republican here in Michigan, where I am, has been lean R. He was thought to have been in a very comfortable Republican seat. Now it's a toss up. And I was certainly hearing about that bullishness from Democrats here in Michigan. from Democrats. Right. Yeah, because Western Michigan is a place that has been, again, for everything that has not gone well for Democrats over the last couple of years in Michigan.

8:33Amy Walter: Western Michigan is one of their bright spots, Grand Rapids, around that area. And Huizenga's held on and outperformed Trump for a while. But outperforming Trump in 2024 looks a lot different than outperforming a president who's even more unpopular than he's been, quite frankly, since he was elected in his first term. Amy Walter, I adore you. Thanks for jumping on and helping explain the new ratings at the Cook Political Report. See you soon. Thanks, my friend. Thanks for having me. Bye. And after the break, as I mentioned, I am in Michigan today. Last night, Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed held their first debate.

9:20Hear what happened there and what Michigan voters think. And later, another leaked audio tape from Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxson about his campaign. This time, he's talking about the fellow Republican he ousted from the Senate, John Cornyn.

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10:48Welcome back to Inside Politics today from Michigan, where last night, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers took the stage for their first debate of this Senate race, and it got fiery and personal. And the doctor, well, he's not really a doctor. That's the kind of policy you're going to get from a guy who wants to be a sock puppet for the Trump administration. I think he's a little concerned about the two properties he owns, United Arab Emirates, I think the other one's Egypt. Two yachts. You know what? Did you sell your yachts? I'd never owned a yacht in Florida, brother. Oh, really?

11:21Where was your yacht? You had two of them. He will say anything to win. And by the way, that's what his sister said. He wants to take every corporate dollar he can to jump hoops for Donald Trump. Learned that in Oxford, I guess, how to talk pretty. I learned that at Michigan, where I actually went to school. I don't just parade around in the Block M. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters, including Jonathan Osteing, who is somebody who, where are you? You're like however many miles north of where I am. I'm just outside of Detroit. You're in Traverse City. But most importantly, you know the state.

11:53Let's start with some of what we just heard from the debate last night. Your takeaway. Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, it was, you know, the gloves were off. It was an intense debate. As you played in those clips there, a lot of personal attacks, not a whole lot of policy. There was a little bit of it, certainly. But, you know, these guys are only going to get two chances to go before voters. And they tried to cram in every attack line it seems that they had in the campaign so far. And it was a little bit overwhelming, I think, for political reporters, but for voters as well, trying to cipher through what all of those attacks actually meant.

12:37Look, Evan, this is obviously, we say this every day, we just showed it in the first segment, this is an environment where Democrats are doing much better because Republicans are on their heels. And talking to people in and around Rogers, their whole goal right now is to continue to, as they say, define Abdul al-Sayed. And that was certainly on display last night. Let's listen to a little bit more of what Rogers was saying to him on the debate stage. Catching people who are suspected of terrorists and being terrorists, committing a terrorist act. That's really, really important. And why would that bother you?

13:17Well, if you have someone in your family that might be on the watch list. Are you going to go ahead and say that I'm a, go ahead and say it. No, I'm going to say what? Did you not have family on? You've been tiptoeing around the whole time. Just say it. Let's open up this can of worms. I'll tell you what my mother did. She was a small... You go after my mom? I'm not going after your mom. What your mom was working at, I was going after that organization that was indicted for funneling money to al-Qaeda.

13:44Evan?

13:48Look, there is no artifice in this debate. These two guys do not like each other. I mean, at one point, the moderator said, coming back from an ad break, that in 30 years we're doing debates, I know you've done a lot of debates to yourself, Dana, that he had never seen the candidates continue to debate during the ad break when no one is watching. But these two guys did. I mean, this is a race that it really is across the entire map. Right. We have seen Democrats kind of go on offense. Republicans are on defense. I think that's true in Michigan, too. But El Sayed is a different situation than other Democrats.

14:21That's that primary that he came out of, which was a very tough primary that he eeked out a win in the end of that primary. What Mike Rodgers is trying to do is keep that primary going, keep those divisions going. And so when you see him talk about this stuff, the way he talks about El-Sayed is designed, I think, to continue that primary and put El-Sayed on his heels. More of him trying to have to defend himself as a person. Now, the other side of this is El-Sayed. You know, look, he has a situation where Mike Rogers is trying very hard to run away from Trump. You know, an ad was mentioned about where Mike Rogers is saying, you know, Canada's not our enemy.

15:01We like Canada. But then when he actually comes to talk about the tariffs or talk about the war in Iran, he sounds a little bit more sort of conciliatory, maybe even talking about good things coming out of that. And at the end of the debate, after the debate says he'd be happy to have Trump come visit. But this is a really fascinating insight into what this whole election is about, because in this case, the Republicans need those divisions from the primaries to last through November. And the Democrats need those to be over and for it to be about Trump. And I think there's no clearer depiction of that than we saw last night in Michigan.

15:37Yeah, no, you're exactly right. And that's so well said on the tariffs, which is one of the economic albatrosses around Mike Rogers neck. Here's some of the debate on that. There are tariffs that I think are too high and not helpful for us. We ought to get rid of those. So this is about getting the best deal possible. I'd like to see it end. I think we need to end it. And I, as a matter of fact, have made those phone calls this week. We didn't change. What we said is things move. We're trying to get it wrapped up. We want a deal on those tariff deals. Weak, cowardly, won't stand up until his poll numbers drop.

16:20Abby? You know, this is what I find so fascinating about Michigan and also Maine, where Democrats also are worried about the two worry states for the party. they border Canada. And so this is a really, really tangible issue. And so I think the central question of this, the Michigan campaign, I've had Republicans in the last couple of days say they still have a shot at it, but they know it's going to be a really hard lift. And so the definition of a wave is when personal attacks, which can enthuse the, you know, enthuse the base, can help with fundraising, do those just sort of wipe away and the national issues of cost of living and corruption overwhelm everything else.

17:02And that, you know, only time will tell on that. Yeah. So, Jonathan, I got to speak to some of your fellow Michiganders last night. We went to the Old Detroit Burger Bar, which, by the way, was delicious, in Lake Orion in Oakland County. And I want to play some of what we talked about with voters. First, these are two women who tend to vote for Democrats. One is not in the Senate race. The other is. Let's listen. I don't really have a trust in what he says that he's going to carry out. I just feel like he's had a lot of contradictions and, you know, things that he has said in the past and the people that, you know, that he has on his campaign versus what he is saying and wanting to do now.

17:56If there were a different Democrat running against Mike Rogers, would you have voted Democrat? I possibly would have. Like Haley Stevens who ran against? I voted for Haley Stevens. I did, yes. Yeah she has been a strong force in Michigan I feel and I would have definitely liked to see her get into the Senate.

18:20Amy Walter: If I look back in the past couple years I feel like There has been no change for when we look towards the future. And I want to make sure I can set up myself, be able to have a family one day, a house. And I feel like Abdul is trying, at least his message is leading that way that could help my future. Jonathan, I'm guessing that's the kind of thing that you hear all the time. The young person who's all in for Abdul Al-Sayed is probably not surprising, given what we saw in the primary. But Dawn, who is somebody who says she's more of an independent but votes Democrat a lot, she just is turned off by him.

18:59And she's already voted. She voted for Rogers. Yeah, definitely. We're hearing a lot of that. I mean, just like we saw President Trump sort of forge a new coalition in 2016, both Abdul Alsad and Mike Rogers are trying to do that this year. Abdul is, of course, courting the young vote and hoping to turn out a lot of those, you know, not high frequency voters that Trump managed to pull out in 2016 and 2024. And on the flip side, Mike Rogers is making a very concerted play for folks like that. And Oakland County in particular is kind of the nexus of where these issues that Abdul El-Sayed might have with certain typically Democratic groups is coming to a head.

19:44There's a large Jewish population there. And of course, he has struggled to mend some fences after a very that was a very combative issue in the primary. And it's also, you know, a home of more moderate Democrats traditionally who have maybe become Democrats in recent years because they didn't like Trump. But now maybe don't like an extreme, you know, extreme shift in the other direction as well. Yeah. Yeah. And the other poll is what we've seen really generationally here in Michigan and other places, people who are in unions or grew up in union households who grew up Democrats and felt that the Democratic Party left them and have been voting Republican.

20:29I spoke to one of those voters, Keith Wilder, who is in a union, and he says, yeah, he pays more for gas. Yeah, it might be a little tighter economically, but he's still all in for the Republicans because he doesn't like the Democrats. Listen to this. The higher gas prices to me are inconsequential because I don't want my children to have to face the threat from a nuclearized Iran. And people are not intelligent enough to figure it out that that's really what's important. So it's a sacrifice worth making is what you're saying. One thousand percent. It's not a problem to me. And honestly, the Republicans, the true Republicans, the people that want the best for this country, 100 percent agree with that.

21:13And I'm sick of this reporting that like, oh, they're mad at Trump for this. They're mad at Trump for that. Listen, the people that really know, they know it's worth it. It's worth it to us because I don't want my kids to have to continue. 47 years, I remember when I was in like 10th grade thinking about why did they take our people hostage in Iran? Because they're radical Islamists who want to ruin our country and take over this country. I'm voting for the Republican. Mike Rogers. Mike Rogers, John James. I'm voting for... Straight ticket, up and down. And honestly, let me be very clear to you.

21:52I don't want to represent like, oh, I like this guy. I like that guy. I don't care about the guy. I want the policies that they represent.

22:04All right, we're going to take a quick break, guys. When we come back, can Republicans win back Michigan's governorship? You just heard Keith talking about John James. He's the Republican running and he's up against the discussion we've been having. A national mood souring on the GOP. John James will be here after a break.

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23:06With all the focus on the Michigan Senate race, we of course remember that the governor's mansion is also up for grabs. Two-term Republican Congressman John James is trying to win it back for his party as Democrat Gretchen Whitmer exits the stage. He's facing off against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Congressman James joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. You have been a close ally of President Trump's since you first ran for office in 2018. A recent Marist poll shows 82 percent of Michiganders think their personal financial situation either didn't get better or got worse over the past year under President Trump.

23:48Now, I'm sure you've heard President Trump say the economy is booming and that we're in a golden age. So who do you think is right, the president or 82 percent of the people in your state? Well, the president is not correct. The economy in Michigan is not booming. In fact, Michigan is 42nd out of 50 in infrastructure. We're 43rd out of 50 in economy. We're 45 out of 50 in education. U.S. News and World Report has Michigan 46th overall. That means that 90 percent or 45 states are doing better than Michigan, and we all have the same president. We have Democrats led by Jocelyn Benson who've been in charge for the past eight years, and things are getting worse in the state of Michigan.

24:28I'm running to bring change. I'm a combat veteran who understands what it takes to bring people together to accomplish tough missions. I'm a businessman who understands what it takes to create jobs and increase wages. and I also have been able to produce and deliver for the state of Michigan as a congressman, and I'm looking forward to doing it as governor, working with anyone and everyone who will help do that for the state of Michigan. And you have a bill that would give people in Michigan who have been hit hard by President Trump's tariffs financial aid in the form of low-interest loans and tax credits.

24:58Doesn't that, by definition, suggest that the president's tariff wars, especially with the neighbor in Canada, are hurting people in Michigan? What it suggests is that the Democrats in the state of Michigan are failing. Check this out. There are six other states that export a higher proportion of their goods to Canada. Five are run by Republican governors, and two are in the top five states overall, according to U.S. News & World Report. Democrats have been in power in Michigan for eight years, and we're doing worse than those states. I'm here to fix the problems, not just to fix the blame, which is why this bill, the Trade Act, that establishes a tariff-funded program to protect United States manufacturers, workers, farmers, supply chain from disproportionate economic harm resulting from tariffs and retaliatory measures.

25:43And this encourages domestic production because, get this, Michigan has lost 300 ,000 manufacturing jobs since the year 2000, and many of those jobs went to Canada. Our country needs to push back on unfair trade practices, which I've said in private and in public to the administration has been documented on ABC and Politico, So Michigan cannot shoulder these burdens alone. And what's making these things worse is that Canada is allowing China to dump Chinese automotive parts into the Canadian market, which are going to find their way into the U.S. market as a way of avoiding tariffs on Chinese products.

26:17Look, I fought with Canadians in Iraq. I have a deep and abiding bond with them. And we all do, particularly in Michigan, that will not extinguish. But we need to make sure that we have fair and mutually beneficial arrangements for our trade, make sure we protect our jobs and increase our wages here in Michigan. So you're totally fine with and you support this trade war that the president is waging against Canada. You think it's right for Michigan? Now, what I have said in public and in private is that they need to be adults and they need to put their egos in their back pockets and get back to the table to negotiate in the best interest of the United States of America and Michigan.

26:54And what I have done is put a bill out there that will blunt the sting of these trade negotiations. But right now, this is something that the president did. I've never voted to put tariffs on Canada. But at the same time, we have to deal with this. And I'm working with solutions. I have called on the trade ambassador, Jameson Greer, to reopen trade negotiations so that we can put this behind us, so we can deepen and strengthen our relationship because trade with Canada is very important to Michigan. I will always prioritize the needs of Michigan. Michigan will not shoulder this burden alone. After last night's Senate debate here in Michigan, you wrote about Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, quote, I went to war to fight extremists.

27:40It's appalling to see one on stage in Michigan running for the U.S. Senate tonight. You mentioned your service. Thank you for your service. It included flying attack helicopters in Iraq. Are you comparing the Democrat running for Michigan Senate to the people you were fighting in Iraq? What I'm what I'm bringing up is the fact that the Iranian regime is communist cloaked in theocracy. What I'm talking about is he was asked multiple times whether Iran or Israel was a bigger threat. And he couldn't answer. He's running to be a senator. And he couldn't distinguish the difference between Israel and Iran being a bigger threat to America.

28:16History has lessons about socialists who scapegoat Jews. It's not pretty and it's not to be tolerated. Extremism is a cancer and it does not need to be nurtured to thrive. I went to war after September 11th and even John Kerry acknowledged that the money Obama sent back over to Iran found its way into the hands of Hezbollah and Hamas and the Houthis and people who, during this Iranian proxy war in Iraq, killed Americans. And so we need to make sure that we are calling our enemy the enemy. And the Iranian regime is the enemy of the United States of America. They have been for 47 years. This war needs to be over like yesterday.

28:55But we absolutely must use every resource at our disposal, economic, diplomatic and everything in between. But we also have to call a spade a spade and recognize that is totally unqualifying for someone who wants to be a senator who cannot tell the difference between the enemy and a friend. But that's not what you said in your tweet. You said it's appalling to see one on stage, meaning extremists. A Senate counterterrorism expert testified under oath that Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy raises homeland security concerns because of his family's ties to Muslim Brotherhood linked groups and connections to care.

29:33The Free Beacon has talked about this. Hel Sayed has campaigned along Hassan Piker. And then you have people who have denied the Holocaust that he has not disavowed, he campaigns with. The list goes on and on and on. Again, extremism cannot be abetted. We must call it out for what it is because it will metastasize into something that's very ugly and un-American. Now, I do want to make this very distinct, that I love everyone and will serve everyone in the state of Michigan, all of the Abrahamic faith who practice peacefully. But if you are espousing extremist values, if you are espousing values that scapegoat Jews take rights from women and would tear us down to our studs and change our republic, then we have a duty to stand up and speak the truth that it is incompatible having an Abdul El-Sayed as a senator with the Western civilization and the constitution that we have.

30:26The DSA wants to abolish the Senate. They want to get rid of the Electoral College. Those are things that are extreme. And so, again, we have to stand up, say the truth and make sure that we vote for Mike Rogers. Sure. Vote for John James. Make sure in Michigan you vote Republican up and down the ticket. He is an American, Congressman. You know that. I do know he's an American, but you know what? If you are spouting out and espousing extremist ideals that sound like they could be parroted by the Iranian regime, if you are an American and you cannot distinguish between Iran and Israel being an enemy or a friend, as a senator, he may not be qualified as an American to be a senator.

31:11That is what I'm saying. If you have to teach someone the difference between an ally and an enemy, if he gets up on stage in front of Michigan and he cannot tell you, if he cannot tell you which one is a friend and a foe, then that's someone who should not be making national security decisions. This is very important. He can't tell you whether or not the Senate should be abolished and he's running from it. And that's what the DSA is campaigning on. And so, again, if you have if you have these socialist tendencies, those are extreme. And we need to make sure we're calling that out because, again, we cannot have socialists who are scapegoating Jews and think that it will not history will not repeat itself.

31:51I mean, Dana, to be fair, right now, the Democrat Party in Michigan is not the party of our parents. The Jewish attorney general in the state of Michigan didn't even attend her own Democrat convention because she feared for her own personal safety. That is what's happening in the Democrat Party in the state of Michigan. And Abdul El-Sayed is the leader of that type of extremism that's catching hold. Michigan is the center of the electoral universe in 2026. And we need to make sure we get everybody out of support. So please go to John James and my dot com. Yeah. And there. Yeah, it is definitely the center of the universe.

32:25That is for sure. And you, of course, are not running against Abdul El-Sayed. You're running against Jocelyn Benson. And we invited her on the show and we hope that she will be here soon. In the meantime, Congressman, thanks for being here. Yeah, she'll come on the live soon. I'm sure she will. Take care. Coming up, a MAGA donor accuses Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle of trying to shake him down for$100 ,000 in exchange for access. We have new reaction from inside the Trump administration next.

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34:04Now to explosive allegations of pay-to-play involving the U.S. ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle. The Wall Street Journal first reported that she allegedly asked MAGA donor Eric Dieters for$100 ,000 in exchange for access. Here's how he explained it on CNN.

34:28Okay, sorry, we do not have the soundbite, but we can have Betsy Klein at the White House give us the information about how he explained it. And Betsy, while I'm bringing you in, I will tell you that what Eric said is that before her Senate confirmation, she said to him, this is his words, I need$100 ,000 to pay off my Amex card, or I'm not going to become Greek ambassador. And then he replied saying, why should I do this? And her response in the text is, I'll be your ride or die forever in the Trump administration. I won't keep track of how many favors or how big the favors. So that's why she asked for it.

35:08There was no question it was a quid pro quo. Again, this is the donor who alleges that Kimberly Guilfoyle asked for money in order to get her confirmation. as ambassador to Greece, which she got. She got the confirmation. Yeah, Dana, time and time again, we have seen President Trump make it very clear that he is not happy when his allies appear to profit off of their relationship with him. So it remains to be seen in this case if there are going to be consequences, but there are very serious allegations of a quid pro quo between this key Trump ally, now the U.S. ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, and this former Trump donor.

35:53This is Eric Dieters. He had been a Trump donor for many years and also ran for Congress in Kentucky. And he says that Kimberly Guilfoyle asked him to pay off$100 ,000 in an Amex debt. And this happened just days before her confirmation. Now, Guilfoyle, in addition to being an ambassador, is a person who is very, very close to the Trump family. You'll recall that she was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. for about four years. And in the aftermath of that breakup, she got this plum assignment, the ambassadorship to Greece. Now, according to these text messages that were provided to CNN by Dieters, in the six days before her confirmation hearing, Guilfoyle writes, quote, Honey, please, I need you to get this done today.

36:38And then she also appears to be aware that this is improper. In another text to Dieter, she writes, it won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express. That's all it will show, please. And she later says she can get him in for a meeting on the matter they discussed. Now, of course, this is raising eyebrows in Trump world. The vice president was asked about this yesterday, and he said broadly, not referring to Guilfoyle or this situation specifically, but he said he doesn't like the idea of anyone selling access to government officials. And CNN has spoken with many Trump allies and allies of Donald Trump Jr.

37:14who say overall this is an embarrassing episode. Now, Dieters ultimately did not wire Guilfoyle the money. He said he didn't have liquid assets at the time. And a lawyer for the ambassador disputes the authenticity of the text. But Dieters tells our colleague Jake Tapper, quote, no question, it was a quid pro quo. We'll have to watch how this moves forward, Dana. Yeah, it's interesting that Don Jr. says this is embarrassing. After the woman he ended up marrying in that wedding, it was paid for at least at the time in part by a Russian who he said it was his friend, but apparently doesn't speak English.

37:56So it's all it's all very interesting. Let's just leave it there. Betsy, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Coming up, a CNN exclusive leaked audio of Ken Paxton talking about the Republican. and he says wants him to lose the Texas Senate race.

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38:53CNN has obtained a new audio recording from a fundraiser last month of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton complaining about the lack of support his primary opponent, John Cornyn, is giving him. He starts the conversation talking about how Texas Democrat Jasmine Crockett has not campaigned for his opponent, James Tallarico. She's not, but I don't know how much she really affects votes. Maybe a little bit around the margins. Just like Cornyn, I see how much she affects me. She's clearly not helping me. He wants me to lose. I don't know. him and jubb bush did that fundraiser raised over a million dollars for all texas candidates except ken and and the ag has called and reached out to hornet he's called him twice and then texted him numerous times trying to get together well the fact that his staffer went for patel and it just tells you a whole lot about things really just have to bring us good friend of us have a Pacific restaurant in Dallas and end of the table next to corn and so he told the way I want to buy his dinner and the waiter makes it so Mary did it okay but he said his wife's perfect it invites her so my friend bought sir I want to call them over shakes him they were like he got kind of in his face almost and said and thanks for the sir my friend and said, well, you know, I just want to thank you for your service, for all your years of service to Texas.

40:25He goes, I realize it's hard to lose an election, but it shows a lot of character that you're supporting the ticket and you're supporting Ken Paxton. And Corrin's face went red. He backed off and said, Paxton's going to lose. We need to teach those Republicans a lesson. It's going to be hard to learn, but they need to know that their decisions have consequences, and we need to make sure they understand it. That's what he's trying to do. He's trying for it. That's crazy. Now, CNN has not independently confirmed Paxton's anecdote about the restaurant conversation. Cornyn's representative also told CNN that conversation did not happen.

41:04And, quote, if Senator Cornyn wanted Ken to lose, I can assure you he'd be more active in the campaign. Paxton's campaign told CNN the audio is, quote, a story that doesn't exist. Back with me now is CNN's Patrick Zvitek and also Abby Livingston. And Patrick, you're the one who obtained this audio. Tell us more. Yeah, this is just the latest chapter in what is a years long feud between these top Texas Republicans. I mean, for years you have seen them trading barbs. You know, Cornyn has long made clear that he believes that Ken Paxton has disgraced the attorney general's office, an office that Cornyn himself once held.

41:44And he's spoken out about Ken Paxton's scandals over the years. In 2022, he called one of those scandals a, quote, embarrassment. And of course, they had this bruising primary runoff earlier this year. And Cornyn has said that he'd support the Republican ticket in the general election. But he's not helping Ken Paxton in this race. That's not just Ken Paxton's words. That's the reality on the ground. He is not campaigning for Ken Paxton. And it comes at a really crucial moment in this race because Ken Paxton's campaign is trying to shore up Republican voters for him. He needs to do more to consolidate the Republican base.

42:18Many polls show. Yeah, or at least get them out to vote, which I think is probably part of what you're saying. Speaking of getting out there, Abby, James Tallarico, the Democratic candidate in Texas for the Senate, is not on the trail. He's not been there for 13 days. His office says and his campaign says that he's recovering from the flu. And Ken Paxton is jumping on this. He put on social media, Michael Jordan played through the flu and won an NBA championship. But Loti Tallarico is too fragile to step out of the shadows with a cough. Last seen 12 days ago. This was last night. What are you hearing from your sources about what's going on?

43:05Well, I think the most important thing to remember is that the most important precious commodity right now in a campaign is a candidate's time. So it's a really big deal that he's not out there. And it certainly has given Republicans a hook to jump onto. They've been throwing things at Tallarico for months, and none of them seem to really stick in a cataclysmic way. I think we have to see how this plays out and how long it goes. But the other thing I would point out that folks have said is that this is now an air war fight and going around the state and retail politicking is good to get on the TV networks and things like that.

43:41But the horse is out of the barn on this. And so I don't think it is a crisis now, but it's you know, we just have to wait and see how it plays out. Patrick, what are you hearing? Yeah, I mean, look, you can't get around the facts that being off the campaign trail for 12 or 13 days this close to the election is a cause for some level of concern. Now, of course, as Abby pointed out, this has been a, you know, almost cathartic moment for the Republicans because it's given them something to really seize on and rally around. And Ken Paxton is really beating the drum on this today. But, you know, this is a significant amount of time to be off the campaign trail this close to such a high stakes election.

44:23There's no doubt about that. We've been talking, Abby, so much over the past weeks and months about the unbelievable imbalance of spending in Texas and really everywhere. But the question has been about how it's going to play out in Texas because Republicans have so much money. Are you seeing it make a difference? Here we are 20 plus days out. I've heard there's a little bit of a bump that has helped Republicans, but the question is, how sustainable is this? And the most important thing in this context, I'd also remind, is that candidates get a lower rate for television advertising. And so Democrats may not be as out advertised as Republicans, but boy, this isn't even a money pit.

45:10This is a money crater for Republicans, and it could bring down several Senate seats, and one of them may or may not be Texas. All right. Thank you to you both, Patrick, especially for your great scoop there. And hopefully James Tellarigo will be back on the campaign trail in time for CNN and Jubilee's town hall. He's going to face Texas voters. My colleague Erin Burnett is going to moderate this town hall on Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern on CNN and streaming live on All Access. Thanks so much for joining Inside Politics today. CNN News Central starts right now.

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