Road to 51 Takes a Turn 

0:00Every day, animals across the country face abuse and neglect. And every day, the ASPCA shows up to rescue animals in crisis. But they can't do it alone. Visit ASPCA.org slash need. Become a donor today to provide the care and shelter these animals urgently need. And for a limited time, the ASPCA will send you a free gift as a special thank you. Visit ASPCA.org slash need. How did I get here? I've spent 20 years building motorcycles I've been building something for my family too Invest in where you're going Get the growth potential of mid-cap companies in one ETF with MDY From State Street Before investing, consider the funds, investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses Visit statestreet.com for a prospectus containing this and other information Read it carefully MDY is subject to risks similar to those of stocks All ETFs are subject to risk including possible loss of principal Alps Distributors, Inc.

1:00Distributor The road to 51 is taking a turn. We have brand new CNN ranking of the top nine Senate seats most likely to flip. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:23There are 50 days until the election and we are tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. We start with a harrowing Saturday night on the trail for the Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor. Tom Tiffany was flying home from a campaign event when his small single engine plane suddenly lost power, plunging the congressman and his pilot into a pitch black lake. Luckily, they both escaped the sinking plane with minor injuries that only required stitches. Here's how Tiffany described it.

2:00As we went to our final approach, the plane lost power, and Len said to me, we are going down. Pull your seatbelt tight. We are just really fortunate.

2:22that we're really fortunate that God was looking after us. Now to a potential financial game changer in the fight for Congress. After months of stockpiling hundreds of millions of dollars, President Trump is putting his war chest to work. The Trump-affiliated super PAC is pouring nearly$80 million into ads, targeting 15 crucial House races and six Senate contests. This cash infusion widens an existing Republican edge, according to ad impact data. The GOP is now outspending Democrats in nearly every major Senate battleground with just weeks to go. Turning to Alaska, where Republican Senator Dan Sullivan was caught fishing for an answer during a debate about fish.

3:07Check out what happens when Sullivan appears to miss a question while sitting next to his Democratic challenger, Mary Peltola. Do the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and NOAA Fisheries adequately consider impacts on subsistence users, salmon migration, habitat and indigenous ways of life?

3:34Tautola is reeling in the moment on social media, writing, happy to help Dan and Alaskans deserve a senator who knows where they stand. And today, J.D. Vance is hitting the campaign trail in Kansas. You heard that right. Kansas. The vice president is campaigning in a state Republicans have not lost in the Senate race since 1932. Vance is hoping to boost the incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, who's in an unexpectedly tight race against his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton. If Republicans need vice presidential reinforcement in Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points just two years ago, let's just say their midterm map is likely getting a little too close for their comfort.

4:19And this just in, we have brand new CNN rankings of the Senate seats most likely to flip in November. Here's the list of the nine races most likely to change parties based on CNN reporting. Number one is North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is the frontrunner to replace retiring Republican Tom Tillis. Maine is the next most likely to flip from R to D. And then comes Michigan, a pickup opportunity for the GOP. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters today, including Arlette Saenz, who did this analysis for us. Arlette, nice to see you. Tell us more. Well, we're 50 days out from the midterm elections, and control of the U.S.

4:58Senate is really up for grabs. You have Democrats trying to go on offense in these red-leaning states, and Republicans are trying to make some headway in just a very few amount of blue-held seats. Now, North Carolina remains number one. I know we'll be talking about that a little bit later in the show. And then you have these two true toss-ups in Maine and Michigan. And our polls last week really gave us a clearer insight into where those races stand. In Maine, you have the race really hinging more on negative perceptions of the incumbent Senator Susan Collins and President Trump rather than her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson.

5:34And in Michigan, it's really the candidates' positions that are driving voters' decisions, with about 50 percent saying that they believe the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is too liberal in this contest. Both of those races are still incredibly close, which keeps them at the top of our list. Now, I want to go down to New Hampshire, which is now number six. That has moved up two spots in our list because of some of the polling that we have seen recently showing that the Democratic standing in that state has started to slip a little bit. The most recent University of New Hampshire polling has shown that there is no clear leader in that contest between a former senator, John Sununu, and Congressman Chris Pappas, the Democrat.

6:11But just in April, Pappas was up several points over Sununu. So that is one where Pappas even himself has been warning about some of the alarm bells in that state. Then we have Texas, which is still at number seven. And that's because of Tallarico's wide lead when it comes to advertising in the state over the summer months. But now we're really seeing the GOP start to spend big in that state. And they're waiting to see whether that could potentially tilt it more into Paxton's favor. And then Iowa kind of moved to number eight because of the movement in those other races. That's still very competitive.

6:44The state's Democratic nominee for governor could actually help the Senate candidate there as well. So really, this is a snapshot in time. It can certainly change over the coming weeks as we have just 50 days till the midterms. And we have that with the news that we reported at the top of the show, Manu, which is the money. And everybody was waiting to hear from the president and his political team about MAGA, Inc. and all that money. And now, as expected, they are spending it. What does it tell you about where they're spending it? I mean, look, the Republicans at this late stretch, they have the money advantage.

7:18They're spending a lot more, pretty much in every other state from here until Election Day other than in Georgia. Because, look, to me this whole thing is, you know, I agree with those rankings because all those states can flip. But they can also flip the other way because they're all so close. The Democrats have a path to the majority, but a very narrow path. And each of these races can shift by two or three points. So, you know, perhaps Maine goes one way, perhaps Michigan goes another way. Or maybe the Democrats have a great night because of the way the environment is. And they end up eking out a victory by two points here, two points there, and two points there that we've seen in other wave elections.

7:56That means there's so much uncertainty in these final 50 days, which explains why the Republicans are spending just an enormous amount of cash to try to shore up their position, because anything could change the tide in some of these critical races. Structurally, the Republicans still have the advantage, though. The map still, the red states the Democrats have to win in. Iowa's a complicated state. Alaska's going to be a complicated state. And they have those purple states that they have to hold on to, like Michigan and New Hampshire. Structurally, the Republicans have the advantage, but the environment's behind the Democrats at this moment.

8:25And just part of that structure is money. Just Texas, for example, the ad reservations right now spending the GOP groups$78.9 million, Democratic groups$15.7 million. I mean, that just kind of tells you everything you need to know about the imbalance in money, but also the structural advantages that you were talking about. Jessica, you do this over at Cook. How do you see the map and the rankings that we have today? I don't I think they're pretty accurate with what we're seeing at Cook one thing I would just note on some of the money in Texas is the Republican money is not going as far as some of the Democratic money because the ad rates for super PACs right now are double what they are the candidate rate in Texas and stuff so Tallarico still has a lot of money I expect more Democratic money to be coming in there New Hampshire is one that I'm hearing some concern about I think basically all of these races right now are margin of error races and if you're looking at is it the money or the message right now I think it's Democrats that have the message advantage as we are going into these final 50 days, that the environment is on their side, that they have an economic message against the White House, that the White House is really not seizing.

9:36But the money is what the Republicans have. So is the enthusiasm, will Republicans be able to close the enthusiasm gap that they have with this money? I'm still a little skeptical because I think that overall, if this is a message about against the president, as we saw in your polling last week in that main Senate race. I was really struck by almost half of the voters that said that their vote is a vote against President Trump. That's not good for someone like Susan Collins, even though she has overcome difficult environments before. If this is a referendum on President Trump, we heard President Trump last week saying, pretend I'm on the ballot.

10:11Democrats are welcoming that message. They sure are. Manu, can we talk about Kansas for a minute, where J.D. Vance is going today? You know, if you would have told me that the Republican vice president was going to go to Kansas to help shore up an incumbent Republican senator in Kansas, I would have told you you were smoking something. Yeah. And it's happening. And I just want to put a couple of things out there before we talk about it. First of all, a story in The New York Times. Last week, I believe, and this is part of the issue that's being used against Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican, who's a doctor, sued 700 patients for debts.

10:4981 were arrested. Now he's a senator. So the story here is about just that, that as a doctor, the patients who couldn't pay, he sued and then actually they were arrested for missing court dates and beyond. This was part of the issue that came up in a pretty intense debate that we saw that played out at a Kansas State Fair. Watch this. Those are common, common business practices. We would go a year before we would ever send somebody over. Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! So that was Marshall. He was debating Adam Hamilton, his Democratic opponent, and that was the crowd that was at the state fair.

11:38Not very happy. Yeah, not a good moment for Roger Marshall. Look, that story speaks to the affordability issue that we're seeing all across the country and clearly playing out in Kansas. And then you add all the agriculture concerns, the tariff concerns, the beef imports, all the rest happening, concerns among farmers that we're seeing playing out in other states, clearly happening in Kansas as well. And then the dynamics, too, in Kansas. Remember, just a couple of election cycles ago, that big abortion rights referendum, the abortion rights side won overwhelmingly in that state. The Democratic governor won there in that cycle as well.

12:13So they're not as in the wilderness in some of these red states Democrats are as they are in other red states. So maybe they can pull off an upset. I'll be more curious if we actually see money being spent there beyond just, you know, Vance or big surrogates going campaign there. Yeah, I think that that's going to be the big question is how much the Democrats will want to invest in a state like Kansas. Both parties say that this is really on the bubble, one of those states that they're watching very closely. And if they are starting to feel more bullish about chances there, you could see real investments starting going.

12:44All right, everybody stand by. President Trump says the only AI guardrail America needs is a smart president. The Speaker of the House told my colleague Jake Tapper maybe something more. The debate heading straight to the 2026 campaign trail. And later, Sarah Longwell, who's been inside the minds of swing voters for a decade, her new book and her message to both parties.

13:15The holidays are coming, but the Lincoln Wishlist sales event is already here. And with exceptional offers on select Lincoln vehicles, you might just cross the perfect gift off your own list. You know, the kind that doesn't need wrapping. Consider this a little reminder to be good to yourself this time of year. Visit your local Lincoln dealer or go to Lincoln.com to learn more.

13:44This holiday, all plans, even unlimited, are just$15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like All I Want. Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra, New customer offer for initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms.

14:17President Trump is making his campaign message on AI very clear. I'm going to read part of a lengthy post he put up this morning. Quote, the only control or guardrails that AI needs is a strong and smart, high IQ, exclamation point, president. And the USA has that in spades, exclamation point. The Trump administration has stopped AI people from doing bad or potentially bad things, people and things in quotation marks, like Dario Anthropic, who is now pretending to be a perfect little angel. And we will continue to do so. We already have tremendous criminal and regulatory power over these companies.

14:57There is a sick conspiracy going on against AI and data centers, and the only one that is happy about it is China. Whoever wins, AI wins. Now, guardrails will listen to Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson just yesterday on State of the Union here on CNN about why he's appealing to President Trump for a meeting with all tech leaders. We need to get them all in a room at the same time and agree on what the guardrails are. That's the only way to do this. If Congress just races in and does some sort of emergency session to try to regulate AI, we will lose the race to China. And that is a threat to every single American.

15:38Manu, you know, there is congressional inaction, which is just... Every day. Every day, a day that ends in Y. And then there is this issue, which feels different because it is different. Yeah. And it's been inaction for years. I mean, they've been talking about this for years. Yes, they've had task force, they've had meetings, they've called in industry leaders, and they've done nothing. There's been no real consensus, no real push, no real leadership to try to pass any sort of bill to try to get Washington's hands on it. One, yes, there are divisions about what it looks like. Two, lawmakers don't quite understand what it is on how to actually set the rules of the world and the parameters.

16:20So as a result, it's much easier to just let things fester. But now we're reaching a point where the public is clamoring for action. Data centers, one big issue, has become a major issue on the campaign trail. Republicans are trying to figure out how to deal with that. A lot of Democrats have weaponized this on the campaign trail effectively. And the question is going to be, because they're all going to be asked this question when they come back into session today, the House and the Senate. And the House is leaving town at the end of this week. And the Senate's only in town for a few more weeks.

16:49They hope they can do something to show the public that they're acting. but they're nowhere near real action. And obviously the backdrop of this is what's happened just in the past few days, which is the head of Anthropic, Claude, and other AI platforms had a very lengthy open letter saying he's concerned and wants to have regulation. And there have been some whistleblowers as well. Yeah, I mean, I see this as such a cross-partisan issue. It is not a Republican issue. It's not a Democratic issue. It is, I'm seeing it popping up in governor's races. And really Trump is outside, is out of step with where his party faithful are with this, with where the activists are with this.

17:30You see people like Ken Paxton that has come out for data centers. You know, there's just, I'm seeing so many ads right now about funding and who's getting money from AI, who's getting money from data centers. And it is just something that is animating the base right now. And so I think that's why you see these, that they want lawmakers to do something. And I think Johnson is right on that. Listen to a couple of the Democratic candidates for Senate, including incumbent from Georgia talking about it over the weekend. We need a public agency focused directly on the safety of AI. And there need to be AI no-goes.

18:03AI shouldn't be able to deny you health care. It shouldn't be able to deny you a job. It shouldn't be able to fire you. It shouldn't be able to fire a weapon. A capable president would move swiftly to secure and reassure the American people. Rush inspectors into frontier labs, fortify the nation against bioterrorism, demand legislation from Congress, and lead the world toward an AI treaty. Yeah, I think the one thing that's been interesting, we've really seen a lot of focus on the data centers which power these AI industries. but it'll be interesting to see around these conversations within the last week if that's really going to push candidates like we just saw it without Syed and John Ossoff to bring up AI regulation more going forward.

18:45The way that we've heard President Trump and many Republicans talk about AI is really through this national security and competition lens where they're trying to say we have to beat China, keep up with China, but there are huge societal and economic ramifications from AI as well. And that is something that we could see a pop up on the campaign trail over the next 50 days. And listen to the former president who was on the campaign trail. He was campaigning or fundraising with Hakeem Jeffries talking about AI.

19:16Who would you trust the least to provide accurate information? Mohammed. The company building it. They're going to b**** it straight to your face. I don't trust the government and I don't trust the company either. My political representatives. Why those, Tanya? Sometimes they're taking kickbacks. I'd be least likely to trust the actual data set. That was not Barack Obama, obviously. Those were Michigan voters. Those were swing voters. They voted for Joe Biden and then they voted for Donald Trump. and you heard the way they felt about it. They don't trust anybody. Now I will read you what President Obama said last week.

20:01If I were running for president next year, this would be one of my central agendas. Once you are speaker, I would strongly urge that the Democrats put together a framework for a very public conversation. This is him talking to Hakeem Jeffries very clearly. Just on that vibe, if you will, Politico went to a meeting of top Democratic strategists to talk about crafting an AI strategy. And during that meeting, Morris Katz, who is working on a lot of Democratic campaigns, said if Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer stood together tomorrow hand in hand and said, give us the majority and the first thing we'll pass is the data center moratorium, we would pick up more seats.

20:45Yeah, maybe, perhaps, but the tech lobby is very powerful. And perhaps that's one reason why we're not going to maybe see that coming from the Democratic leadership. We'll see when they come back. They'll be asked those questions as well. But they spend a lot of money in campaigns. And this is a critical moment where they could unleash the floodgates. There's a separate issue dealing with crypto that bill is awaiting action in the United States Senate. and the Democrats are concerned if they block that bill, what it may mean for their prospects in some key races like in Ohio. So it's a lot easier said than done.

21:22Yeah, that is for sure. All right, everybody stand by. How do you eat a metaphorical elephant? Sarah Longwell spent a decade finding out, and she has a roadmap for Democrats. Are they following it? Well, she's going to be here next to talk about her new book and maybe answer that question. Stay with us.

21:47The holidays are coming, but the Lincoln Wishlist sales event is already here. And with exceptional offers on select Lincoln vehicles, you might just cross the perfect gift off your own list. You know, the kind that doesn't need wrapping. Consider this a little reminder to be good to yourself this time of year. Visit your local Lincoln dealer or go to Lincoln.com to learn more.

22:17My next guest is a Republican strategist turned anti-Trump media mogul. She's spent the last decade listening to focus group after focus group of swing voters to figure out how to win them back from President Trump's Republican Party and keep them. In her new book, How to Eat an Elephant, Sarah Longwell lays out her prescription for how to change minds, not based on her political preferences, but based on what actual swing voters have told her over and over again. Sarah, thank you so much for being here. Congrats on this book. The main thesis is that public sentiment is everything. Democrats, you make very clear, are getting their asses kicked on the communications front.

22:58So what is your prescription for changing that? Well, the book's 330 pages, so there's not just one prescription. There's a lot of different prescriptions, right? There are things to do on the policy side. There are things to do on the communication side. But I think the closest thing to a central thesis really is that Donald Trump has changed the Republican Party in very specific ways. He has hollowed it out and taken it from something that has anything connected to ideas or policies. And it's all about him. And in 2028, whether, you know, he's going to be gone. I know that there's going to be a big debate about does Trump actually leave.

23:42But whether it's for actuarial reasons or constitutional reasons, Donald Trump is going to reach the end of his power in the Republican Party as an officeholder. And that means that Democrats have a generational opportunity to reset the narrative about who they are and how to go on offense against the MAGA movement. Now, some of that right now is about making sure that Donald Trump, when he leaves office, leaves as one of the most historically unpopular presidents ever. Because you want Donald Trump, I call it being below the Bush line, because when George W. Bush left office, he left office at 32 percent.

24:19And I remember after that, the Republican Party couldn't find their way back after that. It was a party at sea that was then able to be hijacked by Donald Trump. And so you want people to look at the MAGA movement and say that was a mistake. Right. That is we cannot repeat that. OK, so you're but the I hear what you're saying about lots of different prescriptions. But just on the comms part, I hear what you're saying about it being all about Trump and about how things are bad. and we can't repeat that. Is it just that? Or do you have to have some why do you want me instead of them kind of comms message, right?

25:01That's right. And look, Democrats, I think, have had a hard time figuring out this new information environment. But suddenly, like in the last really few months, we're starting to see people emerge who seem to get it. And they're very different from Momdani to John Ossoff to Pete Buttigieg to AOC. Each one of them has a different theory of the case about how to communicate with people, but each of them does have a theory of the case. They are out there. John Ossoff does it by giving these sort of soaring speeches where he's being filmed from below, and then he releases it on social media. AOC approaches it much more like an influencer, where she even talks about her personal life and struggles with fertility.

25:43Mom Donnie, for all of the reasons I might disagree with him on his specific policies, he is relentless on the affordability issue. Right. He says, I know it's too expensive to live in New York. I'm going to talk about that all day long. And so some Democrats are starting to do it. But what I want is for the entire party to understand that they are competing with the narrative dominance of Donald Trump and the right wing infotainment media ecosystem. and that they've got to build their own mechanism for competing with that. They need to be out there all the time messaging against Trump's corruption and then also saying it's about contrast.

26:21It's about here's why he's wrong and here's what we have to offer. And Democrats haven't seemed to be able to find their footing. And look, it's all about the economy. I listen to voters all the time in the focus groups. And when you say, how do you think things are going in the country? They say bad. Why is it bad? It's bad because they can't afford groceries. They know exactly how much milk costs. Their gas is too expensive. Their healthcare is too expensive. This is all you hear from voters. And Democrats need to have an answer on that. While also, and this is also important, personal safety also matters a great deal.

26:55It's why Donald Trump was able to go on offense on immigration and on crime. And Democrats need to have an answer for that. They need to be able to say, as a matter of sort of an opening salvo, the border should be closed and we should have a way for people to come here legally because voters still do want immigrants to be able to come here. They don't like the way Donald Trump has approached the excesses of his immigration policies, but they do want the border to be closed. Sarah, one of the things that you talk about that I really want you to expand on now for our audience, people who are not necessarily chronically online like you and I are, is what you call the Republican Triangle of Doom.

27:36and why it's so hard to beat. Explain what it is and give an example. Yeah, so this is the toxic and symbiotic relationship between the right-wing infotainment media ecosystem, Republican voters, and Republican politicians. And they reinforce each other. So I'll give you an easy example, which is how did it come to pass that 70 % of Republicans believed that the 2020 election was stolen? Well, Donald Trump sets the Republican triangle of doom in motion. He says, listen, this is stolen. Those right wing media outlets run to bless the lie, right, to amplify the lie, which means that voters come to demand other outlets bless the lie.

28:18So, you know, you saw Newsmax, OANN, lots of right wing podcasters. So suddenly Fox News is under fire for calling the election for Joe Biden. And I listen to voters say that Fox News was a left wing rag because it called the election for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden in 2020. And so then you've got the politicians say their voters want them to go out and bless the lies. Then you get semi normal Republicans like Kevin McCarthy out there saying, yeah, something was wrong with that election. And before you know it, it becomes orthodoxy on the right. And the Democrats have to find a way to overwhelm the lies of the Republican triangle of doom with truth.

28:56And they do not have the media amplification system in place to do it. They rely very much on singularly the mainstream media. But obviously that's not enough in this new fragmented, fractured media environment. It sure isn't. But luckily, we're still here and you blessed us with your presence. and this is your book, How to Eat an Elephant. First of all, just how great is that cover? It's pretty cool. I love it. Sarah, and more importantly, the inside of the book, the content is great. Sarah, thank you for being here. Congrats on the book. Thanks so much for having me. And coming up, who will score TV's biggest prize and who will go home empty-handed?

29:38We have an Emmys preview from the red carpet after a quick break.

29:50The holidays are coming, but the Lincoln Wishlist sales event is already here. And with exceptional offers on select Lincoln vehicles, you might just cross the perfect gift off your own list. You know, the kind that doesn't need wrapping. Consider this a little reminder to be good to yourself this time of year. Visit your local Lincoln dealer or go to Lincoln.com to learn more.

30:19Shack here. What's it like to buy a car from Carvana 100 % online and get it delivered to your door? Let me tell you. Your car is here, Mr. Shack. Thank you, Mr. Carvana guy. Can't wait to take it for a spin. Only the best for you, Mr. Shack. Hey, have you always been so big, tall, and handsome? Not always. I was 6 '10 once. Seven days to love it or return it, Mr. Shack. Not that I would. You never do. No, I never do. So buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. See our seven-day return policy at Carvana.com. In just a few hours, the biggest stars from television attend the Emmy Awards in Los Angeles.

30:56CNN Entertainment correspondent Elizabeth Flagmeister is already on the red-blue carpet. Elizabeth, we can talk later about why it's blue and not red, but what are you watching for tonight? Yes, the carpet is blue, and as you see, the red carpet is getting set up. A lot of construction behind me. Everything is getting underway, but we're just a few hours away from all of the stars arriving, Dana. Tonight, all eyes are really on the best comedy race. Hacks is the most nominated comedy with 24 nominations coming into the night, and it's being honored for its fifth and final season. Typically, the Television Academy loves to honor shows for their farewell season.

31:38But Widow's Bay is a show that came out of the gate really in the final stretch of the voting period and really has struck a chord with critics and also with fans. So that is the big award that everyone is wondering. Does it go to Hacks or does it go to Widow's Bay? Now, Jean Smart, of course, the star of Hacks, she is expected to win for Best Actress in a Comedy. she would make Emmys history, Dana, becoming the only woman in all of the Emmys to ever win for every single season of a series. Now we go over to the drama side and The Pit, which I know is one of your favorite shows and also one of my favorite shows, Dana.

32:13The Pit is expected to have a very good night. It won last year. It's the reigning champ. It's expected to win again. And its stars Noah Wiley and Catherine Lanasa are also expected to win in their categories. So we'll see what happens because those are my predictions. But as you know, Dana, anything could happen. So should be a very exciting night. TV's biggest night. And again, we're just hours away from all of the stars arriving right here on the blue, not red carpet. Well, first of all, I want to tell our viewers, obviously, there's a little bit of an issue with Elizabeth's microphone. I am very excited not just to see who wins, but to watch Mariska Hargitay, who is just having the best year.

32:53I loved her, the documentary she did on her mom, My Mom Jane, which she already won for, and now she gets to host First Woman in 15 Years, as you said. Elizabeth, thank you so much. Be sure to join Elizabeth for a front row seat to all the stars and the glamour for CNN and Variety's Red Carpet Live, streaming on CNN's All Access subscription. Up next, North Carolina's Democratic Senate candidate says he is one big worry that his party might think his race is already in the bag. Anurajou went to the Tar Heel State to get the lay of the land.

33:50this time of year. Visit your local Lincoln dealer or go to lincoln.com to learn more.

34:04Democrats are feeling pretty good about their chances of winning a Senate race in North Carolina for the first time since 2008. But their prized recruit is warning these final few weeks will be a dogfight. Former Governor Roy Cooper is facing a GOP onslaught to boost Republican Michael Watley in a state that President Trump has won three times. And on Wednesday, President Trump will be there to campaign for Watley in a rural part of North Carolina. Manu Raju just visited and talked with candidates and the voters deciding between them. What about the Democrats, the Democratic brand? Is it popular?

34:43Is it unpopular here? They just have to not screw it up. Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor, is key to Democrats' quest to take the Senate. A mission that would almost certainly be derailed if he fails to defeat Michael Watley, the former RNC chairman and close ally of Trump's. He will do and say whatever the president tells him to do and say. A lot of Democrats have written off North Carolina. They think they have it in the bag. But why would they think that? I mean, Donald Trump has won here three times, and there's been no Senate Democrat who's won statewide in a Senate race since 2008.

35:20There have been polls that have shown Cooper well ahead in this race. But at least one poll from High Point University actually showed this race to be much tighter. A five-point race that's within the margin of error, meaning there's no clear leader in this race. There's this view in Washington that you kind of have this race in the bag. But the polls actually show that this is actually a tightening race. It really is. So what has changed here on the ground? Well, nothing's really changed that we didn't anticipate. North Carolina hasn't elected a Democrat in almost two decades and only two in almost the last 40 years.

35:54So it's tough for a Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina. This is going to be anywhere from a 1 % to 3 % race. Someone asked me what my biggest concern was. and I said that people take this race for granted. Complacency. Complacency. They've been pounding us with false negative ads since July, and the race is tightening just as we knew it would. Republicans clearly have not given up, reserving more money for TV ads in the final eight weeks of the campaign, with more than$50 million. With Trump's approval sagging, Cooper is barnstorming the state, attacking Whatley, over high cost caused partly by the president's war with Iran and sweeping tariffs.

36:42I know costs are way up, and it's the senator's job to do something about it. As Cooper was seizing on cost-of-living concerns in a suburban Charlotte county that Trump carried three times. About 120 miles southeast from there, Watley was attacking Cooper's record in a Democratic stronghold. And I caught up with Watley to ask whether he was aligned with Trump on Iran and tariffs. Whatley's careful not to break from the president. Since the president came into office, inflation is still higher than when he first came in in January 2025. I'm wondering specifically when it comes to the issues of Iran and tariffs.

37:19Should he change course at all, given how much more people are paying here in North Carolina? Well, what I'll say is inflation is a whole lot less than it was under Joe Biden. Right. And so they are significantly lower than they were. And they need to get them even lower still. Obviously, we need to ensure that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. And so I think the president took decisive action, and we're moving forward with that. So are you 100 percent behind him when it comes to Iran and tariffs specifically? Well, what I would say is that we cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon that they can develop and deploy.

37:53And tariffs, too. You're 100 percent behind him on his tariffs policy as well. What I would say is we need trade policies that are going to help North Carolina farmers, manufacturers and small businesses. Watley has centered his attacks on Cooper's record on crime, criticizing his rival over a court-ordered settlement that Cooper reached as governor with civil rights groups to reduce the prison population during the COVID era. Behind the numbers are real victims and families who will never be whole. We paid the price when Roy Cooper put criminals before the innocent. The centerpiece of the Republican campaign against you is this deal that you had, settlement deal that you reached about the prisoner released, roughly 3 ,500 prisoners released early.

38:37When you look back at the way that that was handled by you and your administration, do you have any regrets about the way you handled that? This is something that the state had to do because the court ordered it. And I think a lot of people believed, if you ask the plaintiffs, They were very frustrated that more weren't released. And this was something that we wanted to do to make sure we worked to protect the public. Public safety officers made decisions about this. They followed the lead of President Trump's team. President Trump released 13 ,000 prisoners at least during this COVID era. He signed a bill to do that.

39:17And the problem here is that they are lying about all of these cases that they're trying to connect to this. And the trail of lies is long when, in fact, I'm the one who's actually prosecuted violent criminals and put them behind bars. Michael Watley actually appointed a convicted child molester who served six years in prison on the sex offender registry. above the objections to many Republicans in the history party to a position that would have access to children and teenagers. That's what we need to be talking about. Because some of those who were released did end up committing murders afterwards.

39:58Well, I'm not sure about that. But what I do know is that they made the decisions that they could at the time. Most of the people were toward the very end of their term who would have been out very soon anyway. One of the things that we're hearing a lot from voters who plan to support Roy Cooper is that they think that these attacks on crimes could actually work. I think fear-mongering about crime works. I think it's bad, but I think it works. Cooper has found a response, attacking Watley for appointing a man who pleaded guilty to sex crimes to a position in the North Carolina Republican Party.

40:35Roy Cooper's going after you about Harvey West, the appointment of him for the North Carolina GOP. He's, of course, a convicted sex offender. What do you say to him? And do you regret how that was handled? Well, I didn't hire the guy. Absolutely did not hire the guy. He was a volunteer with the party beforehand. But I think when we talk about crime, Roy Cooper is the one with the record. Roy Cooper is the one who let 4 ,200 criminals out. You want Trump to campaign for you here? To win over Trump supporters, Cooper has to make sure his party doesn't bring him down. How much of this has to do with the Democratic brand?

41:07How damaged is a Democratic brand here in North Carolina? No, I think that there are enough people in North Carolina who are skeptical of national Democrats, and that's why we have more success in electing Democrats as governor and attorney general and secretary of state than we do sending them to Washington. One of your first votes, if you win, will be whether or not to vote for Chuck Schumer's Democratic reader. Would you vote for him? Well, first, I've got to get elected. Second, I've made no commitments to anyone. And Manu is still here with us. It's so funny how these issues, they never change.

41:43Crime has been an issue like this that Republicans have taken up for decades, especially in the Carolinas. Yeah, and the Republicans see a clear opening here. They have been hammering him with these campaign ads for months. And this is the reason why Republicans think that, yes, they see the polls. They see Cooper ahead. They also see a possibility of pulling off an upset on this issue. But also interesting there, Dana, how the issues of Iran and tariffs, how they put Republicans in the defensive. Wally had a very difficult time defending the president on those issues. Yeah, you could see that.

42:15And also candidates matter. The Democratic Party might not be popular, but Roy Cooper certainly seems to be. All right. Thanks. Great piece, Manu. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

42:52We'll be right back. Requires monitoring plan with outdoor protection starting at$49.99 a month. Visit simplisafe.com slash licenses for alarm license information. Clothes shopping really isn't my thing. But I still want to look sharp and feel confident. That's why I use Stitch Fix, the OG personal styling service. No more scrolling through websites or wasting my day at the store. My stylist sends pieces picked just for me straight to my door. Free shipping, free returns, no subscription required. Get started today at stitchfix.com. That's stitchfix.com.