Senate Battle & AI Ad Wars

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1:05The home stretch. With just 23 days to go, Democrats newly emboldened about their chances to take control of the Senate. But as Republicans pummel the airwaves... People say anything to win. Can the GOP hold on to power? And House Party. The American people are going to run these MAGA extremists out of town. As Democrats dive deep into Trump territory, are they overreaching? I'll speak with a Democrat trying to flip a ruby red district. Can she pull it off? And reality check. Is AI takes over the ad wars? Can you tell the difference? Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power starts now.

1:59Good morning. Welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raji. 23 days. That's all that remains before voters deliver their verdict. And Republicans are in a race against the clock. As they confront a toxic brew of voter anger over high prices, especially at the pump, and a president with rock-bottom approval ratings. The brutal political climate forcing the GOP to try to rescue their candidates in ruby red states to hang on to power in the Senate. Now, candidates this weekend fanning out across interstates in the final sprint, where a single point could determine their fate and the party that will run Capitol Hill in Trump's final two years.

2:41In Maine, the Democratic candidate Troy Jackson calculating that stumping with a Democratic socialist, Bernie Sanders, could juice the base in a turn-off battle against the GOP veteran Susan Collins. Senator Collins has had 30 years in Washington. She claims to be one of the most powerful people in the Senate. And what I know is where were you when we needed you the most? There are many people in Maine who may have a disagreement with Troy on this or that issue. That's fine. But if you want to hold Donald Trump and his disastrous policies accountable, The only way we do that is by electing a Democratic Senate, and this election here in Maine could mean all of the difference.

3:33So just how likely is a blue wave, or are Democrats at risk of squandering a golden opportunity? Let's break this all down with my excellent panel of reporters, CNN's Aaron Blake, Margaret Talib with Axios, and Nathan Gonzalez of Inside Elections. Good morning to you all. It's amazing to believe it's only 23 days. We're there, yeah. We're there. We're there. It's going to be here. It's going to be here in 23 days. Aaron, what do you think of just, as we start off talking about the map, just what happened last night in Maine, the decision by Troy Jackson to decide to stump with Bernie Sanders. I mean, look, we know how central Maine is to winning here.

4:11We know that Susan Collins is very difficult to beat. We know that they need to turn out the base. but you also need to get those moderate, independent swing voters, the people who have voted for Susan Collins before, is bringing Bernie Sanders out the right calculation at this moment for Troy Jackson? It's a good question. I would say that what the Jackson campaign has been doing so far hasn't put this race away, so maybe they're trying different things. I do think Bernie Sanders, while he is a Democratic socialist and he's very much associated with the left, if you look at how he's viewed nationally, he's generally been a pretty popular politician.

4:47And I think the idea is that you're going to juice some turnout here. You're going to bring people out who maybe see a different path for where the White House is doing right now. And this is a big headache for Democrats right now, but they're trying different things, it seems. Yeah, and let's zoom out and we'll talk about the race for the Senate overall. Inside Elections, your publication, Nathan, talks about some of the key toss-ups here. You guys have Alaska, Maine, New Hampshire, and Ohio is some of the main toss-ups right now. Cook Political Report adds a couple more to their calculations.

5:20They also see Texas as one of the critical toss-ups here in this race. And as you can see, as I play with the iPad here, Texas, of course, being one of the main ones here. And Kansas, too, now is one of the toss-ups. 47-46, if you look at the six battlegrounds here. One, two, three, four, five, six. Actually, seven battlegrounds, if I count correctly. So seven toss-ups, I should say. Nathan, as we see these races, typically in a wave election, you'll see races break to one party or to another by a couple points here, a couple points there. That will be enough for that happened with Trump in 2024.

6:00That's happened in Democrats and past election cycles like 18 Republicans in 2010. Is that what's happening here or will this be or could this be still a split decision that gives the GOP an edge? I think when we're talking about a blue wave, it's a definitely maybe on the blue wave, because there's really just a few points that could make the difference. I mean, there's a few points between Democrats winning three to five Senate seats and a few point difference where Democrats getting seven, eight, nine Senate seats. And Democrats are always a little bit skittish. I mean, they've lost to President Trump twice, but they like how the conversation right now, three weeks out, is about Kansas, you know, rather than other other Democratic states.

6:39And so, you know, some of our ratings, we're still, you still have to account for the fact that Republicans, there are enough Republican voters in Texas, in Iowa, and South Carolina to get them across the line. But those voters are still not motivated right now. And they have to do it between now and election day. Yeah, in Kansas is where the Democrats are now pouring in$5 million more. The Senate Majority Pack, this is that Democratic outside group, has decided that they're going to give money, put money behind. and Adam Hamilton in his race against the incumbent Republican, Roger Marshall, as you can see there on your screen.

7:14No one predicted that Kansas would be on the map. But the reason why they're spending money there is that the Democrats have a real challenge here because if you look at the overall ad spending right now, is that they are still getting swamped across the airways, and they just don't have the money to keep up. But you look at Ohio there, still significant Republican advantage,$55 million to$43 million. And then Texas, where actually James Tallarico has not been on the campaign trail because he's had the flu for about roughly two weeks or so. Republicans have been making hay about that. But they're also dominating the ad war.

7:47$47 million. That's future ad reservations from now until Election Day. $47 million compared to five for the Democrats. But that's the problem the Democrats have. They can't expand. They see all these opportunities. They can spend in all these different places, but they just don't have the resources to keep up with the GOP. So they've got to focus on the races they can absolutely must win. And yet, that's not totally what they're doing. They are kind of trying to play in both courts. And some of it's with— But look, South Carolina, for one, is an example, right? Because that could be something that they could play in potentially, but they're not going to spend money there.

8:28No, I think that's exactly right. And for Democrats, the calculus has been Trump is so unpopular that he is depressing Republican incumbents on the ballot or Republicans in open seats. Can Democrats lock in, take advantage of that, push in a district that they might not be able to tip otherwise? But doing that takes money off the board for some of the other states, including places you have to defend. And so it has been a very complicated puzzle. If Democrats had an Elon Musk doing outside spending, if Democrats had the kind of money Republicans were having, they would be tripling down in all of these races.

9:02They would be all over the map. They have a unique opportunity because of Trump's unpopularity and not the money to meet the moment. And speaking of Trump, he is hitting the campaign trail, going to a lot of places, a lot of red states that we have seen in particular as of light, including you look at just some of his latest travel here over the last several days. He was up in New York, not a red seat, of course, but a blue state where Republicans have a very difficult chance of winning the governorship. They are major underdogs there. He's going back to Ohio. Red is critical to the map, of course.

9:35John Huston, the Senate Republican incumbent, has to win that seat for Republicans who are trying to block the Democrats' efforts to take back the Senate. He's going to head to Alaska this coming week. That's going to be a big one. Arizona. But then last night, he was in Tennessee. This is not central to the race for the Senate majority. There's a governor's race there, and he was there. But he did make some comments in Tennessee about Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate from Michigan. Mohammed El-Sayed. I call him Mohammed. Somebody said, his name isn't Mohammed. It's Abdul. I said, to me, it's Mohammed.

10:13I'm the president. I can call him whatever the hell I want. He's a radical jihadist. The guy's a jihadist. I don't want a jihadist as a senator from Michigan. I mean, this is quite the rhetoric. I mean, his name is Abdul El-Sayed. He's calling him Mohammed. He's been doing this now on social media for the last several days, calling him a radical jihadist. Yesterday, John Kennedy, the senator from Louisiana, was out with Mike Rogers, the Republican running in this race, and said that Abdul El-Sayed, quote, sleeps in a bin Laden jersey. So you can see where this rhetoric is going in the final three weeks.

10:48Yeah, it's not subtle. And it started basically right after the primary. You saw a number of Republican senators coming out, talking about him, calling him a terrorist. They were using his full first name, which is Abdul Rahman, to try to kind of emphasize his Muslim faith. And what's interesting here is that he's also bringing this up in Tennessee. They're trying to nationalize this Michigan Senate race. They're trying to use Abdul El-Sayed as a boogeyman because they haven't really found that boogeyman outside of these Senate races. There's not a big national figure they can point to. And so he was brought up a lot at the Republican convention last month.

11:25He's being brought up now late in this campaign. You know, we'll see if it works, I guess. Yeah, we will see. And in the meantime, as Trump is going to these states, is it benefit for Trump to campaign, let's say, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, critical to the map? That is, of course, now Democrats. Some polls have Mary Peltola outside the margin of error in that race against Dan Sullivan. And she, of course, is the Democrat there. But you look at the New York Times-Siena poll about where the president stands among likely Alaska voters. His approval rating, this is a strong disapproval among all voters.

12:03A majority. Gas prices, war in Iran, cost of living, the economy. That's strong disapproval. Not just disapproval, strong disapproval. Immigration as well. Is it a benefit for Dan Sullivan to campaign? Dan S. Sullivan, I should say. There's another Dan Sullivan. There's even a third Dan Sullivan. The incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan to stand beside Donald Trump. It certainly cuts both ways. I mean, there is a chance that the president boosts Republican turnout, but he's still, he's boosting Democratic turnout against Republicans. He's reminding independent voters who's in charge at a time when voters are not excited.

12:36And I think we've heard the president say, I'm on the ballot. You know, they're trying to reorganize the 2024 Trump coalition. But if Trump were on the ballot this year, he would lose. He would lose handily. And so that's why they're struggling to do this, because he's in a fundamentally different place than he was two years ago. And you could just see Trump is going to blame, say, well, I wasn't on the ballot if they lose. But he's been saying I'm on the ballot. He's setting up to scapegoat this, if they do lose this election. Still 23 days away. But yesterday, there was also this rather striking development.

13:10Remember, diesel, not just as impacting the price of diesel, not just impacting impacting the politics here in the United States, but the geopolitical politics, everything around the globe when it comes to the war with Ukraine in particular. The president cutting a deal with Russia, easing sanctions, allowing for diesel exports from Russia, and getting a lot of blowback, not just from Republicans here at home and Democrats, but also from Zelensky himself, the president of Ukraine. And yesterday the president was asked about Vladimir Zelenskyy's criticism of his decision to cut a deal with Russia.

13:49That's a war that should have never started. And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president. Margaret, I think he said, I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president. I'm not sure if he's ever said that about Putin. Maybe he has, but I don't recall that. I don't recall that, but that's that is something. Yeah, absolutely. Stunning turn of developments, including the president's decision to take Russian diesel. It's interesting in that argument, two things. Analysts for several concrete reasons don't believe this is actually going to nudge the price of diesel down, certainly not before the election.

14:26But number two, it does seem in his arguments over the last couple of days that the president is trying to make the case that Zelensky is the reason why diesel prices are high instead instead of the president's decision to initiate a war with Iran, which is - And we're hearing a lot of Republicans starting to make that argument too. Yeah. Republicans don't appreciate it, especially not national security Republicans who understand that geopolitically this is a gift to President Putin and makes it very, very difficult for the United States to make the case to other nations, don't buy Russian fuel, but we'll do it.

15:00So it's basically for about 10 different reasons, quite a shocking point of view. It is time for Ukraine to get a new president. I think those words will echo for quite some time. All right, coming up, Democrats are getting more bullish about the House. Details about their strategy in Trump country ahead. And why are Democrats now spending millions in a Colorado district that they have never won before? Well, I'll speak to the Democratic candidate there live.

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16:32Are you ready to help Democrats take back control of the United States House of Representatives? House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries out on the trail last night in Pennsylvania targeting Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, who's one of just three Republicans in districts carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. We're going to win the day, win the week, win the month, win the year, win the hearts and minds of the American people, and then on November 3rd, win back control of the House of Representatives so we can end this national nightmare. This week, the Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races in favor of the House of Representatives.

17:16We'll need to gain three, but it is a lot easier said than done. They're going deep into Trump country in districts that the president won by double digits. So the debate within the Democratic Party, play it safe or run the budget. My panel of political insiders is back. Now, this is, you know, I remember when Kevin McCarthy, they took back the House in the 2022 cycle. And they were talking about 250 seats that they could win. And the environment was so favorable for them. They did win, but it was a very narrow majority. And then hell for him. Exactly. And so that's the big question here. You know, there are several races that we're looking at because there are a lot of these races in double digit.

18:00Trump carried easily that Democrats are competing and spending a lot of money. One of them is the Iowa Second Congressional District here. That's a district that is now an open seat that's being vacated by Ashley Hinson, who is now running for the Senate. And now this race is being heavily targeted by Republicans and Democrats alike. Democrats think they have a chance here. The 15th congressional district in Texas, in the south of Texas, Monica de la Cruz, is the incumbent Republican. It's Bobby Polito. A real top race, top target for Democrats to try to flip. These are just among a handful of them.

18:36And then even North Carolina. This is in the western part of the state. Chuck Edwards, the incumbent senator, no longer a congressman, no longer running amid a major ethics scandal in this state. Now it's an open seat in this race, and the Republicans, the Democrats, are spending a lot of focus, their attention on this race as well. Nathan, what do you think about this strategy to go deep? Some districts are 15, 18 points or so that they think that they can flip. Is that realistic? Well, it's realistic and it's also not necessary. We have to remember there doesn't have to be a Democratic wave to win the House.

19:17They just need to win three out of 435. And all of the districts that you listed off would be gravy on an election night. They don't have to win to go that deep. But the fact that they're able to is representative of the cycle and how far President Trump has fallen since just two years ago. And the money piece is interesting, but I remember 2006, 20 years ago when there was a Democratic wave, and afterwards Republicans admitted that they had great attacks on Democrats. They had the fundraising advantage, and it didn't matter because voters were so focused on change that they were, you know, they were wanting to send a message to Washington.

19:55And one of the things that we're going to look at in election night is one of the first red districts that will close is in Kentucky, and there's a ruby red district in Kentucky that is carried here. This is a former seat, that of Andy Barr. He's the congressman now running for Senate, likely to win that Senate seat there. It is now open, and there are two Republicans. This is the 2024 results that you're seeing there on your screen, how much Andy Barr won that district by a lot. But Hakeem Jeffries, I asked him about this earlier this week, about whether they think they can win this district now that it has Democrats, Zach Dembo running against Ralph Alvarado, the Republican.

20:33He didn't say that they think they could win it, but he thinks it could be close, and that could tell them a lot about how they'll do on election night. Once the polls close, and if this is a close race, perhaps they have a big night. Yeah, you talked a lot about whether Democrats are going to go for some of these reach districts. And there's a real question there, because a lot of these are the kinds of districts that maybe they can win in the 2026 election, but are you going to hold on to those in the next election, or are those just going to snap back to Republicans? How much do you want to spend in the districts that you might have a better chance of holding for for a long time?

21:05But this is a bigger question for Democrats than it usually is right now, because we saw a lot of these mid-decade gerrymanders from the Republicans, which created these districts that are kind of nominally Republican but not overwhelmingly, that are going to be more difficult for Democrats to win in future elections. I think they'd like to get a foothold in those districts, hoping that they might be able to hold them for the foreseeable future. So that's going to be a big question. It's not just about winning the majority. It's also about the size of the majority and the sustainability of it.

21:33Yeah, the size of the majority. And it's interesting, the money, Margaret, right now, the future ad reservations in the House. The Democrats actually have a little bit of an edge. Our colleague David Wright crunched the numbers for us. $245 million on the Democratic side being spent. These are future from Friday until Election Day. $236 million on the Republican side. It may go short to show you that a lot of Republicans are spending their money in the Senate because they need to keep the Senate and they think the House is gone. Yeah, they do. And look, we'll see on Election Day, it's quite dangerous to look at polling and predict what's going to happen 23 days from now.

22:13One of the big questions for both parties has been, is the polling being structured accurately? Is it built on correct assumptions about how many Democrats and Republicans are going to turn out? If the polling is generally correct and the headwinds really are with Democrats this much, it does make sense to try to run at the tables because of what Aaron was talking about, which is that if Hakeem Jeffries becomes the House Speaker, it would be much easier for him to govern. If he has a big majority that's not totally relying on, you know, three progressives to have a protest and sink the entire Democratic agenda or the kind of infighting that will cripple the leadership.

22:52You mentioned several interesting races. That one in Texas is one of my favorites, Texas 15. The Democrat in that race is a famous Tejano singer who has been performing free quinceañeras around the district to try to garner support. So there are a lot of really interesting races. But in many of these cases, if the Democrats' bets pay off, they will be electing more conservative Democrats, not just centrist or slightly center-left, but more conservative, old-style blue-dog Democrats into their ranks. We saw that in 2018, yeah. And you've seen progressives push the Democratic Party so far to the left in terms of messaging and agenda.

23:34If Democrats were able to swell their ranks to include more centrist and conservative Democrats, it could really change the next House Speaker's ability to govern. It's going to cause a lot of infighting. But for Jeffries, he just wants to win the majority. He's going to worry about that problem later, if he has that problem. If he has that problem. But we'll see. It could still blow up in Republican Democrats' faces. We've seen that happened in the past. Alright, coming up, it's been a red seat since it was created more than 50 years ago. So can it really turn blue? Well, Jessica Killen is trying to become the first Democrat to represent Colorado Springs in the House.

24:13I'll go one-on-one with her. That's next.

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24:50Since its creation in 1973, Democrats have never represented Colorado's 5th Congressional District. But this cycle, they're going all in. Freshman Congressman Jeff Crank, a Republican, is facing Democrat Jessica Killen. This is a district that Trump won by about nine points in 2024. The Colorado Springs area district includes five different military installations, including the Air Force Academy and three Space Force spaces and stations. About 500 ,000 residents in the district are white, with black residents accounting for about 42 ,000 residents. The median salary is$91 ,000, higher than the national average.

25:28In this cycle, Democrats think they have a chance there. They've already spent$3.1 million on ads against Republicans'$3 million investment to try and flip this district. Here with me now is the candidate who hopes to become both the first woman and the first Democrat to represent this district, Jessica Killen. Thank you so much for joining me this morning. Really appreciate your time. Jessica, as you know, there's skepticism that Democrats can actually flip a seat like yours. I mean, you look back at the 2018 Democratic wave election when Doug Lamborn, a Republican, held that seat. He won that by more than 17 points, and that was a bad environment for the GOP then.

26:08So how is this environment any different? Well, thank you for having me, by the way, Manu. I appreciate it. And I'll just say, you know, first of all, this district has changed a lot since the census as well. And, you know, it's changed. The demographics have changed. And what I hear everywhere on every corner of this district is that people are frustrated. They want real leadership. They want someone who's going to actually deliver for them. And they're struggling. People are really struggling to make ends meet in my district, just like they are across the country. And they know that Jeff Crank has only made their lives more expensive, more challenging.

26:43And he's also sort of pretty much been MIA and not engaged in this community. And people have had it. So I wonder how much of a liability is it to have a D next to your name in a district like yours? I mean, you look at nationally, roughly two-thirds of all registered voters disapprove of the job of congressional Democrats. So is it a liability to be a Democrat in your district? What I hear is that people just want someone who's going to roll up their sleeves and actually do the work. And I don't talk about that I'm a Democrat that much. I talk about my core values and how my core values are aligned with the people in this district.

27:21And then I'm going to show up and I'm going to work for them in a way that Jeff Crank and previous leaders in this district have not. And that's what people want. Yeah, people are sick of both parties. That's what I hear everywhere. They're mad. They're sick of both parties. They want someone who's actually going to focus on delivering real results. That's the kind of member of Congress that I will be. Are you personally satisfied with the job of congressional Democrats? Pardon me? Are you personally satisfied with the job that congressional Democrats, how they have performed in office? No, I think that both parties need to do some work.

27:58You know, I talk a lot about it's time for Congress to take back its power and make sure that they are actually delivering results and legislating for the American people. Everyone across the board in my community is sick of partisanship over people. I am actually focused on working across the aisle. I'll work with anyone, left, right, center, to make sure that we actually start legislating again and start delivering again. And that's what the people expect, and that's what they deserve. And I believe that when I win this seat and others win their seats, we are going to actually start making life more affordable and deliver meaningful results for the American people again.

28:34You know, your race got some attention this week after the Democrats' campaign arm put out an ad with the family of Virginia Giuffre, one of Jeffrey Epstein's victims. The ad really going after your opponent, Congressman Jeff Crank. Listen. My sister, Virginia, was one of Jeffrey Epstein's victims. She spent her life trying to expose the truth. Jeff Crank covered up Epstein's crimes to protect Donald Trump. He has no business being in Congress. Now, Crank's team is pushing back. They say that the ad is what they say is intentionally vague. And they say that he did vote to release the Epstein files along with most of Congress.

29:12So I'm wondering, Jessica, given his vote, the fact that he voted to release the Epstein files, would he not be – do you think that he's on – wasn't he on the right side of this issue in your opinion since he voted to release the files? He was on the right side when he had to be, when his hand was forced. Everyone knows how this went down, and this is what Sky and Amanda have talked eloquently about is their efforts to meet with him. The part of this ad is also that Jeff Crank failed to meet with his own constituents. And unfortunately, that's not a unique experience here in my district. They met with him.

29:46They wanted him to sign the discharge petition. He two times voted to keep the Epstein files hidden. And then once the discharge petition had sufficient signatures, not with the help of Jeff Crank, by the way, then he finally, after he got the green light from Donald Trump, who he votes with 100 percent of the time, finally did the right thing. But he didn't do it out of any sense of courage. He only did it when his hand was forced, and everyone knows that. And Skye and Amanda Roberts know that, and that's why they're frustrated with him. I want you to listen to the attack ads that are coming your way.

30:22There's an ad going after you and your past lobbying work. Listen. The real Jessica Killen, a wealthy liberal lobbyist who just moved here last spring, funded by radical out-of-state liberals. So Jessica, is your past lobbying work a liability for you in this race? I worked at USAA, shoring up the financial security of veterans and service members during and in the aftermath of the financial crisis. I'm proud of the work I've done. You know, I was born and raised in this community, went off to serve my country in the military. I'm an army veteran. After that, went to law school and then worked at USAA, as I mentioned.

31:03So I'm proud of my record of service. I'm proud of the work I've done. And I think my record actually provides me a good context in the ability to deliver for the American people and deliver for the people of El Paso County. So you've been on the Hill as a staffer as well in the past. You know how important it is about that first vote as picking the Speaker of the House. That could be if you win, that will be your first vote. Would you support Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker? I'm focused right now on winning this election on November 3rd in 23 days, and then I'll think about what happens on January 3rd.

31:38Okay, so you have no decision yet on that. Focused on winning this race on November 3rd. Okay. All right. Well, we'll leave it there. Joseph Killen, thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate it this morning. And we invited Republican Congressman Jeff Crank to join the show as well, and we hope to have him on soon. All right, coming up, it's been a long time since Democrats have held the majority of governorships, but is that about to change? We'll discuss next.

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33:12This November, state capitals nationwide are up for grabs and it could be the first time Democrats win a majority of governorships in 16 years. Right now, there are 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors. And just like with the House and Senate, Republicans are playing defense in red states. Recent polls show Democrats ahead in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska with some of these races within the margin of error, meaning there is no clear leader. My panel is back. This is the battleground Governor's Max from Nathan's publication Inside Elections. It has several toss ups that include Alaska, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Georgia.

33:56Others tilting in various directions. Margaret, how significant would a majority, I mean, you look at all the big issues that come to the play that affect the national level, redistricting. You even look at the bench for the next presidential candidates in 2028. How significant are these governors races right now? Yeah, they are. it could make a real difference. And you're looking at, you know, in theory, as many as six pickups, if they need three pickups to flip the control there. You know, that seems doable within that grouping of six. Unlike the House or the Senate, it doesn't totally matter.

34:33Like, there's no magic flip, you know, that switches when you take the majority, but it does show strength across states. And it matters in a couple of ways, because if Republicans retain control of the Senate, a lot of the countering policy will happen in states, and that will give Democrats sort of a pipeline for those kind of responses. Whereas if Democrats were to retake control of the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, and a majority of governor's seats, you would really see an engine for Democrats heading into the 2020 race. So it could have an impact. And it has an impact in some of these individual states.

35:12Look at the states that we're talking about. We're talking about Iowa, where there's a tremendous frustration with the president over diesel, beef imports, tariffs, you know, the war in Iran. I think Georgia's tough, but Georgia, Nevada, Alaska, Ohio. So it matters in the individual states and matters collectively for national policy. And let's drill down into one of them, which is Texas. Greg Abbott, the incumbent Republican governor here. some of the polls have been concerning for Republicans. The New York Times-Siena poll dug down and asked whether Greg Abbott is too far to the right. 45 % view him as too far to the right.

35:52That's compared to the Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, who is viewed by just 28 % of Texans as too far to the left. A sign that perhaps she has more strength among some of those more moderate voters. Who could determine the election? Yeah, and we see this in some other states like Iowa, for example, where Rob Sand has run a very moderate campaign. It's not just these Senate races where we're seeing these kind of moderate Democrats running and getting some crossover support. It's also a lot of the states that, in these governor's races, the list of governor's races that we had on the screen before, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, these are the key Senate races as well.

36:30And so we've seen these races become competitive in the Senate, but some of these candidates could kind of work together and bring these other people who are on the ballot beneath them across the finish line. So it's going to be interesting to see how the governor's races and the Senate races work with each other. And conversely, you could bring them down, right? How much is Paxton bringing down Greg Abbott right now? How much in Iowa will the Democrat, Rob Sand, pull over Josh Turek, the Democrat there in that race? And, you know, the same goes in Ohio because Vivek Ramaswamy is not particularly popular in Ohio.

37:04And is that going to hurt John Husted, the Senate Republican, in that critical race? Well, there's an interplay between those races. But in Texas specifically, I think that Abbott has a President Donald Trump problem even more than a Paxton problem. I think even if Cornyn were the nominee, I think we would still be talking about Texas because the president's numbers have cratered among Hispanic voters. They've declined across voters all across the board. And so it's not just a Paxton problem there. I see an Abbott distancing himself from Trump, which is like really noteworthy considering it's Abbott.

37:39I mean, there was just a campaign event there just a few days ago, and suddenly there was a scheduling. Yeah, and something came up. They had to wash his hair. Yeah, exactly. And the amount of money, I mean, this is just the story in so many of these races, but I mean, it's just staggering. The Republican spending advantage in some of these states. I mean, Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy's on his side,$27.2 million to$13.9 million for the Democrat Amy Acton. And then in Georgia, I mean, just wow, just completely demolishing. Rick Jackson, the Republican candidate, against Keisha Lance Bottoms there. And then in Texas, I mean, look at that,$22.4 million that Greg Abbots side.

38:20And this is a good example of sometimes there are problems that money can't fix. and right now might be facing that where voters are so frustrated with the economy in the state of the country that money is not going to convince them to do something else. Could there be a problem though for a Democrat in a blue state? Because in Oregon, it is a different situation. There's an incumbent Democratic candidate there, and she's having a hard time because people are not happy with her job. Yeah, it's kind of like what's happening in the Senate race in Maine, where, you know, Democrats feel good in all these red states, and then they've got this problem in Maine.

38:51In the governor's races, that's what's happening in Oregon to some extent, where this race has been competitive for actually a long time. Oregon is not a state that you would expect Democrats to have to be defending in a year like this, but it's certainly been a problem for them. Yeah, and those blue states sometimes are a little more complicated than your state of Minnesota. Maybe in the Senate race there, Republicans think that there could be some major upset there. We'll see, but yeah, sometimes it's different. Sometimes those local issues trump those national issues, pun not intended. All right.

39:20Can you tell the difference between a real candidate and an AI one? Well, we'll take a closer look. That's next.

39:31Remember when campaign ads featured real video of candidates and their opponents? I do. But with the rise of artificial intelligence, that's all changed. President Trump spent Friday night campaigning with New York gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, whose AI ads are realistic enough to make you do a double take. Before, Kathy, I worried about things like tax, utility bills, crime, and whether families could afford to stay in New York. And now? I just say it's someone else's fault. The New York State Democratic Party filed a complaint with the state election board since New York requires AI ads to be marked as such.

40:11The rules on labeling changes from state to state, so that means a lot of AIS have not been labeled. And while some are easy to spot like this. When will he quit? The drummer? No, Sherrod Brown. Sherrod Brown is still around. Others are not quite as obvious. Look, I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity. According to research from Wesleyan University, there have been more than 164 AI-based ads during the 2026 election cycle. For a price tag of more than$80 million, of those ads, Republican candidates and PACs were behind 80 % of them. In 2024, the FCC chairwoman proposed labeling for AI political ads.

41:06A day later, though, the FCC commissioner, Brendan Carr, issued a statement in opposition, questioning if the authority to demand that fell under the FCC's umbrella. Now, and as Congress grapples with how to regulate this ever-evolving technology, one thing remains certain. Don't believe everything you see. that's it for inside politics sunday up next city with jake tapper and dana bass jake's guests include homeland security secretary mark wayne mullen microsoft co-founder bill gates thanks again for sharing this sunday morning with us go bears beat the packers in honor of dipka we'll see you next time

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