Senate Battleground Expands; Trump Reverses Course on Rallies; Alaska Ballot Controversy

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1:03seven Senate toss-ups, zero certainty. Get ready for a wild four days. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:20Just four days. That's right. Four days until the election. And we are tracking the races, the candidates and the stories that could shift the balance of power right here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. First up, the Cook political report is shifting more than a dozen races in the Democrats' direction in the House. That includes another 12 races, eight of which are currently held by Republicans, now projecting the Democrats to flip as many as 25 House seats. Here's how the Democratic leading the party's effort to win control. Here's how he sees it. We need to net three to win, but we will absolutely take back the majority and have a strong governing majority.

2:05And in the Senate, two red states are moving toward Democrats. Nebraska shifts from likely to lean Republican. And Florida makes its first appearance on the battleground map, moving from solid to likely Republican. President Trump is putting two midterm rallies back on his weekend schedules. rallies that he just canceled yesterday. Originally, the White House claimed he was scrapping weekend events in Iowa and Kansas to hold tele-rallies and more states to reach more people. It was a pretty quick reversal after the president made clear he did not like questions about the cancellations. So you not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling?

2:46Oh, you're sick to ask that question. You are sick. He says, what's the reason for this, sir, that you're not going to Kansas? You know what the reason is? I don't feel I have to go to Kansas. I'm going to Florida tomorrow, and I'll do if something else comes up. But he said, you're not going to Kansas, sir. Are you feeling well? You've been following me for two weeks. I feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell. And now to a new interview with Texas Senate candidate James Tallarico. He spoke to our colleague Ed La Vendera about why he thinks he can beat Republican Ken Paxton and pull off something Texas Democrats haven't done in nearly four decades.

3:31I can't tell you the number of people who come up to me at the end of these events and whisper, I'm not a Republican or I'm not a Democrat. You know, these are people who have just been left out by both political parties, and they are ready for someone who's going to actually represent them. And so I am reaching out to everyone, no matter their political affiliation, no matter if they've been involved in politics before. Now to the early vote. More than 45 million Americans across the country have already cast their ballot ahead of Election Day, and it includes a ballot coming all the way from the Vatican.

4:08That's right. Remember, the Pope is American. And Pope Leo submitted his Illinois mail-in ballot, making him the first Pope in Catholic Church history to vote in a U.S. election. So that makes sense because, you know, we all hear his Chicago accent. Experts say he's also likely the first Pope to vote in a Democratic election ever. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters here. That is so cool. I will say that we don't know. I don't remember if he was in the conclave beforehand. That is a Democratic election, but we won't split hairs. I'm going to actually figure that out after the show. I'm sure somebody will be tweeting at me or emailing me now, but that's so cool.

4:51I love a good Pope Leo story. We love the Chicago Pope. Let's, yeah, Chicago girl. Let's talk about your house ratings. Jessica, you are here to walk us through. We're going to start with the Senate map. I mean, we have a lot of uncertainty in the Senate map still. I would still rather be Democrats than Republicans right now in our seven toss-ups. I actually think they're leading in at least five to six of them Democrats are, but it's still within the margin of error, and we've seen some of these states are very hard to poll. Alaska, Maine, the polls have not been reliable there in the past. We saw Michigan polling be off in the primary election.

5:28But the two races that I'm moving just shows how the map has expanded. And those two races, forgive me, but— Nebraska moved from likely Republican to lean Republican. And then Florida was not on the map before, and now it is. I mean, this is a 13-point Trump state. I still think that Angie Nixon is going to struggle more than a regular Democrat would in Florida, even in a wave type of year because she has aligned herself with the Democratic Socialists of America. But we have seen closer polling there. I think that she's being helped by the strong campaign that David Jolly, the Democratic nominee for governor, is running as well.

5:58Okay, I just want to do this for everybody, just a reminder and clear this. Okay, so this is where the battleground map is right now. Let's look at where it was in February of last year. My initial ratings, yes. From your initial ratings, the entire Midwest to Western part of the country was not a battleground. And remember, right now, what we had before, Alaska was not on. Texas was not on. Iowa was not on. Never mind Kansas and so many others here that are now in February of 2025 were battlegrounds. And now they've changed dramatically. I mean, this is a remarkable shift from last year to now.

6:41Democrats deserve credit for recruiting candidates, convincing a candidate like Mary Paltola to run in Alaska. I think that they took advantage of Republican divisions in Texas with getting James Tallarico as a strong candidate there. But Kansas, I think, is the big surprise of the cycle. And I think Roger Marshall probably wins the award for running maybe the worst campaign. And he could have put this race away earlier. Again, it's a 16-point Trump state. I know that the NRSC told their incumbents you need to be ready. This is a tough cycle. And he was one who did not apparently heed that. He didn't even have campaign staff or consultants up until just a few weeks ago.

7:14I just want to say something for the record as we talk about this remarkable shift. The yellow states are toss-ups. Toss-up means it can go either way. And it is, for the most part, on Republican turf, which means they could come home. And this is the question that I have, and I think that a lot of people do as they're looking for the polling. We're seeing good Democratic turnout in some of these places where we have partisan data. But if Republican voters come home, they vote on Election Day, that could certainly, because the DNA of these states is still very Republican. And I think that's why if you see them fall short in a 16-point Trump state and an 18-point Trump state like South Carolina that we have rated lean Republican, I think the answer will be it was just too Republican.

7:55We're too partisan right now. And Leanne, I know you're in touch with Republican sources all day, every day. Where are they most worried as you look at this map? Everywhere. They are really worried everywhere. You know, just yesterday in South Carolina, the Democratic Super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, went in with$750 ,000 in digital ads, which doesn't seem like a lot. But it is the first time national Democrats have spent money in the state and, you know, perhaps decades. And it's the first time this cycle as well. And the reason I'm told is because Democrats got some polling back that showed, you know, Annie Andrews actually with a very slight lead in private polling than over Darlene Graham.

8:36And so, you know, Republicans are extremely nervous there. If they were able to keep the Senate, that is going to be considered a very, very good night for them. OK, let's talk about and look at the House ratings that have changed, because as we said, 12 of them have moved in the Democrats' direction in sort of some way, shape or form. I want to zero in on some of the new competitive races. And I specifically want to highlight North Carolina 9. Why am I doing this? Not just because it was a Trump almost 16 district, but because that is the district of the Hudson, Congressman Hudson, who is in charge of getting Republicans elected to Congress and keeping the House.

9:27And he even put some money into his own race. Look, that just goes to show that if you are a Republican incumbent, you do not feel safe wherever you are, regardless of how much you won by last time. I have talked to Republican members of Congress who have never been as worried as this. I mean, it reminds me of Democrats in 2010, in 2014. There's just this sense out there that everyone now is sort of worried. But look, I mean, the reality is the likely GOP and only GOP, Those are still likely to be in the Republican hands, but it makes everyone nervous. There's no doubt about it. But just there's one thing that is true as we end this campaign cycle.

10:08The president's approval rating remains very low and the economy remains very high as the top issue. Those are the two things that have not changed throughout this entire year. And that is driving all of this. I want to read a little bit of your newsletter this morning, Jasmine. The bar for a good night has been set very high. This is about Democrats, obviously. Too high for some. To steal some phrasing I had heard earlier today, I think the party is nauseously optimistic. That is, Rodericka Applewhite of the majority Democrats. Yeah, we were asking this question to Democrats. Did you set the bar too high?

10:43When you go out on the trail, I was at Milwaukee with Kamala Harris. She was campaigning for David Crawley early this week. And she said, when Democrats take the Senate, that is a very high bar. even given the changes in the expansion of the map. So we're asking Democrats across the board, did you guys set the bar too high so that if you do not net the Senate or if you don't flip some of these races that we're talking about, let's say Texas, Kansas, et cetera, will people feel disappointed even though the House has a good night, which they're expected to have? And the question for people was, why not expand what we think that we can expand?

11:20Why not give people hope in that we can do more for what we're talking about? So the two phrases you said hope that are definitely the phrases of this election from Democrats. One is nauseously optimistic. Yes. The other is they're smoking hopium. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Let's talk about it hard. Let's talk about Trump. The fact that he was going to these rallies over the weekend and then he canceled it and then he changed his mind again. And before he changed his mind again, you talked to a Republican official who said, thank God he hasn't moved the needle anywhere. Look, and the reality is if you wanted to see the president by this point in the cycle, if you live in any one of these states, you could have seen him.

12:03So that comment was a sigh of relief that the president was not coming back to one of the Midwestern states for a variety of reasons. One is that he's not been helpful. I mean, we will find out on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's on my list of things to see. Was he helpful anyplace? In some places, he probably will be in terms of focusing the election. But for other reasons, there's also a lot of work to do for Republicans, outdoor knocking, canvassing. Having the president come in is more about him than actually about winning races. Takes a lot of resources. So this reversal this morning was clearly driven by the president watching news coverage about this as opposed to anything else happening.

12:46But they're back on. He'll be in a Salina, Kansas on Sunday as well as Cedar Rapids, Iowa. And Ashley Hinson is from Cedar Rapids, so she will be there with him. I'm sure she will. All right, everybody stand by. Coming up, we have new video just in from Alaska Senate candidate, the Democrat Mary Peltola. She is denying those damning allegations of dirty campaign tricks, at least that she was involved in them. Plus, new reporting on the eye-popping amount of money Elon Musk is spending on the midterms. He is now the largest political donor ever.

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14:24CBS News just posted this video from a rally in Juneau. I just want to clear the error. I knew nothing about any other candidates on the ballot except for me and the incumbent. That is all I have ever known about. I am not interested in tricking voters. I know I can beat Dan Sullivan. Alaska's Republican governor Mike Dunleavy is refusing to commit to certifying the Senate election results if Mary Peltola wins. Jeff Zalany, the New York Times story, which is very clear that it's using her ex-campaign manager as one of the sources, says, according to that staffer, Paltola wasn't directly involved in this scheme, but that she absolutely was aware of it.

15:19Look, I mean, the question is, does it matter to Alaska voters? I mean, even if she was aware of it, the race is playing out as it's playing out. And we often look at things from afar, and it's unclear if voters are experiencing it the same way. And our Akyung Law was talking to voters, and they said that. They were fascinating. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up. Let's listen to some of those voters. It's unfortunate, but it's politics, and it seems like everybody's shady. Everybody does things that are kind of sketchy. Did it impact who you're going to vote for? No, it doesn't. And I think a lot of Alaskans, we're a gnarly and pin a bunch.

15:58So we do what we do. You can't hurt us. We're a bunch of goats. And Kyung La, of course, talking to voters on the ground there in Alaska. And so that is why I think it's difficult for us to assess from afar the impact. Very far. But the bottom line of this all is all parties do it. It is not right, but it's how voters actually see it. And there's not much time for our Republicans to make hay of it. But I'm struck by what you said about the governor. If he does not certify this, and we could be talking about Alaska for a long time, so we'll see how many of those, the toss-up states actually go.

16:31If it hinges on Alaska, sit back, folks. Even in the best of times, I'm told that it could take like two weeks to count the votes. Because of the ranked choice and because they don't certify, I mean, and just the time it takes for the votes to get in. I mean, to Jeff's point, I think a lot of people in Alaska have also already voted by mail because it's so remote, so how much is this going to impact it? I have a real question about it as well. Yeah, and also, you know, the way they count the votes there, I was told that they count for a few days and then they take a break for a few days and then they start counting again.

17:00And so I think that that's the really perhaps dangerous part of this. You have all this uncertainty in this race and people challenging what the governor is going to do, what the Justice Department is going to do. Meanwhile, you are most likely going to have days or a couple of weeks where there is no result. and it's in that space where conspiracy theories grow, where doubt is sowed about the outcome of the election. And that could be the real impact of this. And that will be driven by the president, right? The president has a, I'm talking to folks, a real focus on this. He is personally affronted by this idea that they could put somebody else named Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

17:36Personally vindicated Republicans are by the reporting by the New York Times, you know, parading New York Times when at one point, you know, they were the enemy of the people per se, right? And so Donald Trump is going to be extremely targetedly focused on this, and we will be hearing about it day in and day out until there is some certainty. And then, of course, there is no certainty after that. Let's talk about Michigan, because there is so much drama still within the Democratic Party, specifically between the nominee, El-Sayed, and his former opponent for the Democratic nomination, Haley Stevens.

18:10She released a very lengthy statement this morning after it was announced that they would finally campaign together on Sunday. Here's just in part of what she said. I've learned from Democratic Party leaders and emissaries, as reported in the news media, that Dr. El-Sayed has heard the deep concerns of the Jewish community and is now, for the first time in this campaign, formally condemning that ad for what it is. That is why I accepted Congressman Clyburn's invitation to appear with Abdul on Sunday. I urge voters and the press to confirm it with Abdul directly. Now, here's the backstory I am told.

18:46And that is that there were phone calls late into the night last night, early into morning this morning with the emissaries that she's talking about. People like James Clyburn, who is from South Carolina, but he's obviously a Democratic leader. Debbie Dingell, who's one of the veteran lawmakers on the Democratic side in Michigan. Even the party chair there. Even Haley Stevens' fiancé involved in trying to figure out how to get to the place where she can get to yes. And what she is very clearly stating that she wants from Abdul El-Sayed is to formally and explicitly disavow the ad or video that was released not by him but by his allies, which they see is clearly anti-Semitic.

19:33It hasn't happened yet. She's waiting, Haley Stevens, I'm told, to see if he does it unsolicited or if he's asked by a reporter. I mean, this is just the latest chapter in this. And I just got back from Michigan. Again, like I said on Alaska, I'm unsure what impact this is actually having on a variety of Michigan voters. This is a party leadership fight. There's no doubt about it. It's sour grapes in one respect, some people say. It's bad politics on the other side. Like, why didn't the El-Sayed campaign and reach out to her months and months ago. I asked him about that last night. He brushed it aside.

20:07But the reality is Senator Alyssa Slotkin yesterday was out urging Democrats to rally behind him. Yes, you can disagree. We'll see about that. I mean, the biggest question about Michigan is, is this Democratic coalition staying together or not? So we will see. I mean, if she does not appear on Sunday, I guess we'll have our answer. Well, the biggest problem is with black voters in Detroit, and that's where Stevens did so well. And when I'm talking with Democrats, that's what they worry about, is that all of these things have diminished the black vote and that they may not turn out or they might skip it on the ballot.

20:38Which is why the signal that she's clearly sending, like, give me what I want, doing it in a public way, when we're talking about a rally on Sunday with James Clyburn in Detroit, it is all about the black vote for this particular event, nevermind the actual race. Don't go anywhere. 45 million Americans have voted. Millions more will vote this weekend. What's the Republican plan get out their voters, even ones feeling maybe a little wishy-washy on their party. New CNN reporting is next.

21:30Hyperbound, a YC-backed startup, used Vanta to unlock the Fortune 100 in under a year. Snowfire got audit ready in a month and closed a multi-million dollar deal. Trust matters. Get started at Vanta.com. It's the final day of early voting in Georgia, where the state already broke the last midterm record, 2.5 million votes this time around. So far, Georgia voters are weighing in on consequential races for governor and senator. CNN's Ryan Young is in Decatur, Georgia, right outside of Atlanta. What are you seeing, Ryan? We were talking beforehand. You said you've seen a lot of lines and voters coming out.

22:12Yeah, energized people, I almost believe we'll hit 2.7 at some point. And it's very interesting as we've been following this for the last month. Not only are people energized, I almost wish we had a booth that we could just set up and let people push record when they want to leave a comment. Because they're not only so energized, they want their voices heard. and I'm hearing over and over again, quite honestly, people feel like even we're not saying enough about what they want. And what they want is quite honestly, some relief. And so we'll point back to the polls this way, that cone right here is as close as we can get.

22:42Every now and then, we'll go to the window to look inside. And we've seen some long lines. And I've been talking to other folks around just to ask them what they're seeing. There is a final push that is going on. So we have over 2.5 million people who have voted. There is a get out the vote push here. We went to an Ossoff event yesterday, and the young people were just so energized about getting out to vote. You could feel their energy, and they're talking about gas prices. They're talking about the price of food, something they want to see change. Take a listen to some of the voters we spoke with a little earlier.

23:14The economy is certainly not super pleasurable right now. I very much think that we are part of that struggle. We think about it every day. If we want things to change, we have to get out and vote. It would be ideal to have lower gas prices. I drive to work just about every day, and my girls as well, and it hits us as a family. And so that's crucial and important. And then I have young adults, and so I think about their future and being able to afford a home one day. It's tough. Typically, I have to pick between gas or going out to get food. So a lot of the times, Mom used to always say, there's food at home, and now I'm always like, there's food at home.

23:55Yeah, I spoke with a young father who said, look, he didn't want to go on camera and say this, but the idea of making a decision between giving the kids some extracurricular activities like swim class or doing soccer is a little tougher right now because when you have gas and medicine issues and trying to afford the mortgage and they had a job loss in their family, it's getting tighter. And so they said they can't blame the economy on one person. But the same idea is they want to hear more of that from D.C., the fact that Americans are struggling on a day to day basis. Ryan, thank you so much.

24:26Appreciate it. I'm glad it's a beautiful day there in Georgia. And on the Republican side of the early vote, there are some alarm bells. We're going to show you a map that shows states that share early votes by party affiliation. The darker the brown, the more behind pace Republican early votes are compared to the last midterm elections. Kansas, look at that. That is notably brown right there in the middle of your screen. CNN's Steve Conterno is tracking all of this. He is in Chicago. So the headline from your reporting gives it a little bit away. I'll give it anyway. We just have to bother the crap out of these people.

25:04That is how the GOP is confronting its voter enthusiasm deficit. Steve. Yeah, you just listen to Republicans across the country and it is striking to hear the amount of concerns from some unexpected places. Look at what Florida Governor Ron DeSantis posted overnight. He is highlighting the turnout so far in Polk County, Florida. This is a fast growing region between Tampa and Orlando. It's an area that he won by 30 points four years ago and turnout there coming into today. was effectively tied. And we are seeing stories like this from Republicans across the country, including in Texas. Look what the comptroller there, Don Huffines, had to say.

25:51He's a Republican making some concerns known about the Lone Star State. It is not going well. You need to know that, and you need to be scared, and you need to be concerned. The early vote is not in our favor. It is ugly. right now. We need every single Republican to get out there and vote. And if you're mad at a Republican, I had to hold my nose and vote for John McCain. I had to hold my nose and vote for Mitt Romney. I was a delegate to the National Convention. I still voted for him, right? Now, some of this is clearly attempts at motivating their voters to get out to vote in these final days.

26:37But it does match the concerns Republicans have also pointed out about the enthusiasm they are seeing from the other side. Democrats are entering this election cycle much more motivated to vote than they were four years ago, according to polls. That's true in many battleground states. The gap has also flipped where Democrats four years ago were behind Republicans. Republicans are basically keeping a similar level of interest from four years ago, but the Democrats are just surging in enthusiasm going into November. Dana? Yeah. And it's important to note that we are comparing it to the past because sort of the DNA of Republicans tends to be more to vote on election day than early.

27:22But on that note, on sort of comparing apples to apples, I do want to drill on Kansas because they're behind pace from 2024 and 2026. I know you spoke with the head of the Republican Party in Kansas. What did she tell you? Well, she told me that she was much more concerned a few days ago than she was going into these final days of early voting. She said that she believes Republicans are starting to put on the jersey, that they're finally recognizing what the stakes are in this election, and they are showing up to vote. But even if Republicans are matching the expected turnout from 2022. They are falling behind with voters who many people didn't expect to vote.

28:03Remember, Donald Trump's coalition was built on voters who did not vote in previous elections. And what we are seeing in states like Kansas, in North Carolina, and other places where we get a good peek at the data, people who didn't vote in the last election or one of the last two elections or neither election are increasingly voting for Democrats. And that's a total reversal of four years ago. This is a problem Republicans knew they were going to have to confront this cycle, getting those unusual voters to show up. But it's proving very difficult in these final days to just educate them on even the fact that there is an election and why they have to come out.

28:44I talked to one GOP official who said, quote, We're talking five, six, seven, eight, nine times to get them to action. Dana. Yeah, and the fact that the richest man in the world is spending more money than ever before is probably going to play a factor. We're going to talk more about that later in the show. Steve, thank you so much for that reporting. Always good to see you. Up next, John King's Battlegrounds Day Tour wraps up for the week in Maine. Where the temperatures are falling, the cost to heat your home is surging. what will that do? How will that factor into the attempt by Democrats to finally beat Susan Collins?

29:23Stay with us.

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30:18Parts of the country don't think too much about the cost of home heating oil, but in Maine, they sure do. It's literally life and death. And today, the cost is hitting a record$6.04 a gallon. That is up by more than 80 % since one year ago. It's the issue that could determine the outcome of the Senate race there. and it is the final stop, Maine, of John King's very long week, five states, five days. Okay, you're going to have to prove to me that that's real. I mean, it looks gorgeous. It's almost too gorgeous to be real. It is real. But let's talk about what you're learning there in Maine. What can you tell us about the state of play?

30:59Well, you mentioned the high home heating oil. Now, it's beautiful out today. It's unseasonably warm. It's about 60 degrees. But it's getting into the 40s and even into the 30s. It's supposed to hit freezing overnight as you go through the weekend. and everybody who lives in New England knows, especially if you live up in northern Maine, I can bring up the map for you as we wait to get results on Tuesday night. You know, half of the population of Maine lives here in the 1st Congressional District, in Portland and along the southeast coast. The rest lives in the giant rural area of Maine. Everywhere in Maine, it gets pretty cold in the winter.

31:26If you're up here, the 30s are coming as soon as this weekend. And if you live here, you know the 20s are coming after that. And so part of it, as you mentioned, the record high price of the home heating oil, part of it, Dana, is the cumulative effect of all this. This is the price of gas in Maine. And if you're in the orange area, your gas has gone up between 50 and 60 percent since the Iran war started. If you're in the lighter area, your gas prices have gone up 45 to 55 percent since the Iran war started. If you live up in this rural area, you probably use diesel instead of gasoline. And that's even more expensive.

31:57And so it's a cumulative effect as the weather gets colder. And Democrats believe, they're not happy that home heating oil prices have gone up, obviously, But they believe that it's another brick, if you will, in the affordability crisis that they hope convinces voters, even though Susan Collins has seniority, even though they might have questions about the experience of Troy Jackson, the Democrat, that they should vote for change. That is their hope. This is a very, very close election to the end. We had a poll just the other day. You know, most of the polls show Jackson up a little bit, but within the margin of error.

32:24So no clear leader. I will tell you, this is a bit of a humor. We should have a little bit of humor. There's a spectacular children's museum here, and they just had a mock election statewide with children. and Troy Jackson won by a hair. We'll see if that's what happens Tuesday. I don't know. Out of the mouths of babes, I'm sure that the Jackson campaign is very happy to hear that. Those numbers on home heating oil are just absolutely horrific for the people there. I do want to ask you a question. It is horrific. And again, it's about to get cold. I want to ask you about a conversation you had yesterday in Pennsylvania with a Trump voter.

32:58What happened? We were having a conversation with a number of voters at the end of the campaign, trying to get the energy in the campaign, how people feeling about it, what they think is going to happen after. And among them was a mega voter. His name is Jason Levine. He lives in the Bethlehem Allentown area. He's a financial planner. And I just want you to listen to the raw anger. His view was that Zoran Mamdani should not be allowed, not be allowed to be mayor of New York City, that he should be locked up because of his views. That was his view about Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. He said he shouldn't be allowed to run for office even.

33:31And you can tell that they're seeing the polls. They're hearing the change that might be coming. And just listen here to this view, his view of democracy. And people like me who got Trump elected, okay, there are a lot of us, okay? And I call us the silent majority, but we're not, there comes a point in this life, in this country, okay, where you're going to see people like us and you're not going to want to see people like us, because we're the kind of people that if we get in the streets, we're going to finish the job. It's coming to that point where this, I see this country absolutely at a breaking point.

34:09You view your job, if there's something that you disagree with, someone you disagree with, even if they're born in America or naturalized, eligible to win the election, and they won an election that's a free and fair election, it's your job to kick them out of that? Well, it's not my job. To stop Mamdani from being mayor because the people in New York elected him and you don't like it? It's not my job, but it's the job of a lot of all of us. It was a stunning conversation. He said they shouldn't be allowed to run for office. They should be locked up. He talked about Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, to many people that would border on bigoted and racist without a doubt, saying that they just shouldn't be allowed to run for office.

34:52To me, Dana, it was proof number one. There's a lot of raw anger out there in the mega base. The president himself is using some pretty inflammatory languages. He travels the country. And so we're going to have an election on Tuesday. It's going to settle which party controls Congress, the House and the Senate. It's going to decide a whole lot of governor's races and a whole lot of state races. But it's not going to answer some of the fundamental volatility in the American electorate. And the raw anger there was just quite stunning. Yeah, I would say so. And I think he probably needs to go back to civics class 101 to understand how democracies work, which is, I know, the point you were trying to make.

35:27John, thank you. Appreciate it. Enjoy the weather there. Can one man spend enough money to win his preferred party and election? Near trillionaire Elon Musk is trying to find out and has hit a record in election spending. We'll tell you how he's spending and how much it is. Stay with us.

35:52The Secret Society of Semi-Homemade. Listen up. Sam's Club has pre-made dishes for a Thanksgiving feast that's ready in two hours, all while tasting suspiciously homemade. Come join us. Sam's Club. Individual oven times may vary. The richest man in the world is now the largest political donor ever for a single election cycle. New reporting from our colleague, Frederica Skouten. She dives into just how much Elon Musk is propping up the GOP and how the party is spending his money. Musk has given nearly half a billion, half a billion dollars. There you see exactly$4.45. I shouldn't say exactly because we don't know exactly how much it is, but just in that ballpark is eye-popping.

36:36And the question is, where is that money going? Not surprisingly, Musk's home state of Texas, followed by Ohio and Michigan. Frederica is at the table with us. Such important reporting, Frederica, because Democrats are very worried that this could stop their momentum in a lot of these states. And you write, if Republicans win the midterms, Elon Musk's money may be why. And I just want to go through the top races where he is investing, as I mentioned, starting with Texas, $45 million that we know of so far, then Ohio and Michigan, both$10 million, Iowa and Maine. Yeah, yeah. And that is describing what his own super PAC is doing, America PAC.

37:20It's almost he has two tracks. He's put more than$215 million into America PAC, and America PAC is active in all those states, 17 states, a bunch of races. And they're helping to turn out the vote in those places. But he also separately is giving big sums to other groups. For instance, in September, he donated more than$150 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which we all know is the main Republican super PAC. quickly, SLF turned around and put that money into something called Texas PAC, which is set up to help Ken Paxton win in Texas. And so that money has been going into advertising that has been attacking the Democrat James Tallarico.

38:06So that's a lot of money in Texas that can be traced back to Elon Musk. And money that they would not have to spend, likely, had the president not endorsed Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican, were on the ballot and not him. I want to read a little bit more from your story. Republicans familiar with the strategy describe Musk's move to shoulder some of the Texas advertising costs as freeing other GOP groups to deploy resources elsewhere to protect the Senate majority. So it's advertising, but I do want to drill down on what you just said about door knocking, because Elon Musk is a tech guy.

38:44And he and a lot of these groups know how to find voters. They buy GrowTarget. They know who voted when. They know how to find them. So if you have enough money, you can spend time literally going voter to voter and making sure, to the best of your ability, that they get out to the polls, which matters in a time where there's a lack of Republican enthusiasm. Absolutely, they can target them. And they're targeting them on the doors, but they're also targeting them on digital advertising. If you go on Facebook, for instance, you will see all of these ads directed at very specific folks saying, hey, have you checked your registration?

39:19Are you ready to vote? Hey, remember to vote. One of the things that America PAC has done is they have sort of a wallet that you can download that helps remind you when it's time for you to vote. And you're seeing this across the country. You're seeing it in Colorado. You're seeing it in Ohio. And obviously you're seeing it in Texas, where he is based and a number of his companies are headquartered. One of the questions is, okay, so why aren't Democrats out there hitting Elon Musk more? James Tallarico certainly is, and he did it again with our colleague Ed Lavendera. But a quote from Ben Wickler, who's a former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair, to your publication in Washington Sun, maybe explains it.

40:03if voters are telling you every hour or every day that grocery prices are their top concern, then don't stop talking about grocery prices in order to lean into Elon Musk. Yeah, absolutely. Corruption is obviously an issue, not that what Elon Musk is doing is corrupt in any way. This is actually very legal, what he is doing. But when it comes to affordability and corruption, Democrats have tied those together. So distracting and talking about what Elon Musk is doing when there are hundreds of millions of dollars going into all of these campaigns throughout the country, it might not be the best argument.

40:38Yeah, and that quote came from an article from my colleague Emma Ruby, which is fantastic. Everyone should go read on The Washington Sun. But it basically juxtaposes Elon Musk's visibility this election cycle with 2024. And I want to read one part of the article. It says that the Sun's analysis of ad impact data showed that since September 1st, only 37 unique ads mentioning Elon Musk have hit the airwaves. Mind you, in that same period, 351 ads have hit the airwaves talking about corruption. So it is very clear that Democrats are choosing to focus on corruption and affordability over Elon Musk, despite the large amount of monies he is just flushing into the electoral system.

41:15And real quick, Democrats are connecting the two. Without a doubt. But again, I mean, it's the economy and affordability. And Democrats also are doing the canvassing and door knocking that George Soros is funding called Texas Together, but not nearly as extensive as what Elon Musk is doing. Yeah, for sure. Thank you, everybody. Have a good weekend. I know you won't be resting, but at least try to a little bit. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. Speaking of the weekend, be sure to tune in to State of the Union, 9 a.m., 12 noon. Jake will be in the chair. His guests include Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia.

41:49CNN News Central starts after the break.

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