The Battle for Midterm Dominance: Red States, Blue Waves

0:00Every day, animals across the country face abuse and neglect. and every day the ASPCA shows up to rescue animals in crisis but they can't do it alone visit ASPCA.org slash need become a donor today to provide the care and shelter these animals urgently need and for a limited time the ASPCA will send you a free gift as a special thank you visit ASPCA.org slash need

0:36Red meat. The president heads to friendly territory. Go out and vote even if you hate John Euston. As the GOP plays defense. That just tells me they're in trouble and they're afraid. But is the map shifting faster than they can keep up? And spoiler alert. When you get desperate, you'll say anything. As Democrats get aggressive in red states, could they blow it in a blue one? I hit the trail to find out. The majority won't be flipped if we don't hold this seat in New Hampshire. Plus, end of the line? Well, I'd give them all an F. Can Senator Chuck Schumer lead Democrats into a new era? Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress?

1:21Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

1:32Good morning. Welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. Just 30 days till the midterms. Can President Trump defy the odds in a brutal environment to keep his party in power in Congress? At the core of his problems, GOP support for the president is slipping. Independents are fleeing. And approval over his handling of the economy is at record lows. So far, early signs of an energized electorate, with more than a million voters casting early ballots nationwide, according to CNN calculations. So can anything stave off a big Democratic win? And will Trump's presence on the trail, largely in red states so far, hurt or help the GOP?

2:15Just last night, barnstorming in Ohio, a state he won by 11 points, but where the GOP incumbent, Senator John Husted, is at serious risk of losing. He attacked Democrats as he tried to turn out the vote. They're a bunch of dumb son of a bitches.

2:41They voted in favor of the worst inflation and the highest energy costs in American history. And now the communists want to do even worse. Go out and vote even if you hate John Eustadt, even if you hate Vivek Ramaswamy. Thank you, President Trump, for being here.

3:03All right, let's break this all down with my excellent group of reporters. Seven-four is David Weigel, Kerry Dan from the Cook Political Report, and CNN's Patrick Svitek. Nice to see you all. Good morning. It was an interesting night last night in Ohio, and there's a lot to assess for the weeks ahead. And let's just look a little bit deeper in what happened in Ohio. Of course, Ohio is a state in which we look at the map here in which President Trump won by double digits there, 11 points back in 2024. He was in a blue part of the state last night, actually a part of the state in which Kamala Harris actually won narrowly back in 2024.

3:44So what does President Trump's approval ratings look like in the state of Ohio right now? really not the best when you compare it to back in 2018. Remember, that was the midterm of President Trump's first term in which they lost the House. His disapproval rating back then was at 49%. That's that middle column there on your screen right there. Right now, 56 % disapproval rating for President Trump in September 2026. David Weigel, we saw John Husted there at the end of that clip embracing Trump. Is bear-hugging Trump the way for John Husted to win re-election here? I don't think he has another choice.

4:23If you cover Republicans, there's nobody who's able to break from him in a significant way, skip a rally, and stay out of his blast zone, except for, I guess, Susan Collins. All of them are dealing, though, with something that has not been there. John Husted's been winning as Republicans become dominant in Ohio. This is the first election Trump's had to run in where people credit him with the economy, management of the economy, and don't think it's gone well. 2018, for all the things breaking against Republicans, voters went to the polls saying, the economy is good, but I'm concerned with this and that and the other.

4:512024, people credited Trump with a very good economy that they remembered. They raised the, give him a mulligan for COVID, let's say, was the popular position. And you can tell when you're around the country looking at how Republicans are messaging, no one has had to do this. In the entire existence of Donald Trump as a dominant figure in American public life, No one has had to explain the economy, an economy that people do not think is good. And that the conflict, maybe this is where this is not separating itself and good. Some Republicans locally are saying, we know things are tough and we're trying to make them better.

5:22That's not the Trump message. The Trump message is that we fixed it already. Yeah. That we inherited an apocalypse from Joe Biden and it's been fixed. That's not how voters feel. And that's the first time he's ever been telling voters you're wrong about the economy. It's better than you think. Yeah. In this telling people how they view rather than how they actually feel. That's really just been Trump saying everything is great, but people don't actually feel that way. That's borne out by all the polling in there. And then also there's this issue of data centers in Ohio. This being such a huge issue around the country, but particularly in Ohio.

5:50John Huston's been hit by Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, trying to win back that seat. He's, of course, the former senator there attacking Huston constantly over data centers. The Senate Republicans tried to protect Houston on this issue by holding a vote to effectively try to go after data centers for raising utility rates. Democrats blocked that bill. And so they thought they were on a good side of this issue. Republicans did heading into this final stretch. And then Trump last night at that rally said this. Data centers benefit local communities. We want them. Look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio.

6:27You can't just turn them off. They'll go to China. perhaps not the message John Husted wanted to hear. You know, and the Senate campaign on for Republicans put out a very alarming memo within the last month and a half saying if Husted loses this race, it's going to be because of his previous embrace of data centers. And Sherrod Brown's, I think, very effective ad campaign to remind Ohioans just how bullish he was on this very issue. So I can't imagine him maybe cringing a little bit when the president said that. The president has also very, you know, very recently said that people who don't welcome these data centers into their communities will end up quote backwards and poor.

7:03That's not exactly the message I think for voters in Ohio who are very used to seeing manufacturing jobs leaving, seeing things that are happening to their economy that they attribute to overseas actors, that they attribute to tech billionaires taking jobs that were previously in their community and then going elsewhere. And Donald Trump's message has not been particularly sympathetic there. I do think Donald Trump is aware of the fact that maybe his politics on this particular issue don't necessarily match the rest of the voters, but it didn't stop him from talking about it last night in front of a candidate who desperately needs to distance himself from the data center.

7:33So much of the story right now in the midterms and why Trump is struggling is, yes, Democratic support, Democratic opposition against him is at an all-time high. Democrats are energized. Independents certainly are fleeing. But Republican support is really slipping for Trump. And it's really, you look at these New York Times-Siena polls that came out just yesterday. These are all states that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. According to this polling, Mary Paltola, the Democrat in Alaska, is up by seven points. She's outside the margin of error, and there's a very hotly contested race in Kansas, which we'll talk about in the next segment.

8:11Ohio, we just talked about there. Cher Brown narrowly ahead, but within the margin of error there. And in Texas, Ken Paxson losing by six points. But that is the real issue here. Overall, it's the Republican support that is slipping from Trump. And I think the concern here for Republicans in some of these races is that these Republicans who aren't currently supporting the Republican candidate, they're not necessarily all going over to the Democratic candidate. You look at polls in Texas, for example. Ken Paxton tends to be in the low 80s, mid 80s with Republicans. They're not all going to James Tallarico.

8:41Some of them are, but some of them are undecided. They're saying they won't vote. And so this is where Trump comes in for the Republican Party. and they believe that he can at least rev up some of those voters, get them back into the Republican column and make it so that they at least don't, you know, skip a race or stay home and not vote at all. And in the meantime, while all this was happening, I did not have this on my bingo card yesterday morning when I woke up that he would be posting the phone number of a Republican senator on his true social page to roughly 13 millions of his followers, a senator who's aligned with President Trump on pretty much every issue.

9:17Senator Tom Cotton. Cotton himself on the ballot this November as well. All over the issue of daylight savings time, Trump wants to make it permanent daylight savings time. Tom Cotton has opposed it, blocking it in the Senate because of his concerns about it being too dark in the morning hours, particularly for children. And then Trump posted for him. We blurted out there on your scream but you trump to his 13 million followers did not perhaps not a uh the final election closing stress stretch message you would expect from the president or maybe you would given this president i would say you might expect this from the president but there used to be a heuristic for this among republican voters or the independents who vote for trump which is a bumper sticker i'd take some mean tweets and two dollar gas right now and there was this idea that in the first term whatever he did that was distracting to the press or to us or amusing to his voters in the front row Joes.

10:11Well, but look at the economic numbers. Look at how you were feeling. Look at the money you're able to bring home. Look at how much it costs to buy a house. Without that, without that, this stuff just splashes into the news cycle. And it doesn't seem puckish for voters. This seems like a president who's distracted. And this is something a lot of Democrats are using around the country, that the message that you listen to J.D. Vance on the trail, he's pretty focused on economic needs. Listen to Trump. It does seem like he gets into digressions about things that are interesting to him that are not the fact that your mortgage rate is up to 7.2%.

10:40Right. And for the record, I did try to call that phone number yesterday and it went straight to voicemail and the voicemail was full. All right, coming up next, what's the matter with Kansas? Well, Republicans are finding out and they have a brand new attack ad to try to save that seat. We'll have that next. Plus later, a comeback bid by a Republican in a battleground state who's trying to keep his distance from Trump. You also wrote an op-ed in 2024 with the headline that said, Trump is a loser. Do you stand by what was said in that piece, really criticizing him?

11:18Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast, All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. My guest is Lil Jon. He's a rapper, DJ, and producer known for hits like Get Low and Turn Down for What. In February 2026, his 27-year-old son Nathan went missing near Nathan's home in Georgia. Three days later, his body was found in a pond nearby. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me. It takes time to heal. And I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn. I needed to laugh again. I needed to be silly and interact with people and feel other people's energy and make people happy too.

12:03We have to share so other people can see that they can get through it too. Talking grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast. You may have noticed gambling doesn't require a casino anymore. You can just open up your phone. It's designed to keep us coming back or maybe never even leaving in the first place. We're going to talk to Dr. Timothy Fong, co-director of UCLA's gambling studies program. You're going to learn what your brain is really chasing when you place a bet.

12:40And also importantly, how to keep the game from playing you. Gambling addiction, gambling disorder is the hidden addiction. You can't smell it. You can't taste it. You can't see it. You can't have a urine drug test. Who are we talking about here, Professor? Who's the most likely demographic to be affected by this? Literally any single human on earth. Listen to Chasing Life. Streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts. The decision by the leading Senate GOP super PAC to pull money out of North Carolina and into deep red Kansas tells you a lot about how Republicans are seeing this midterm environment.

13:14So how are they spending that money in Kansas where the GOP incumbent Roger Marshall is struggling to fend off his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton? Well, we have a look at the brand new ad from the Senate Leadership Fund. Adam Hamilton isn't a moderate. He's a two-faced extremist. Hamilton backs amnesty for illegals, just like Kamala and Hillary. Adam Hamilton marched in the streets with BLM radicals. All right, my panel of insiders is back. Kerry, what do you think of that message? Very traditional Republican message, trying to tie him to the progressives in his party, Kamala Harris, and all the things that are trying to make him look out of step with people in Kansas.

13:55I think the reason that Adam Hamilton has put this into a category, this race, we now rate it as lean Republican. That is not a place that Republicans would have thought. It used to be safe Republican. Yes, that's not a place that Republicans thought that they were going to have to spend money, particularly pulling money out of what they thought was a very competitive state to put in Kansas. But Adam Hamilton has been a good communicator on trying to distance himself from the Democratic Party. He has sort of set the ground early on in his campaign talking about how I'm a mega church pastor. He does not have the profile of sort of this woke liberal, but he also can talk very fluently about faith, which is something that Democrats, I mean, Democratic candidates now, Democratic consultants now love candidates who can talk about faith like a normal person in a state like Kansas, which, by the way, does have some DNA of electing Democrats statewide, not at the Senate level for 100 years, but at the gubernatorial level.

14:44There are Democrats in the state and there are voters who are receptive to the message of somebody who's like, Maybe I have a D next to my name, but I'm not really a Democrat like that. That's what Republicans are spending money trying to define Adam Hamilton as. The question is, is it too late? And you look at the polls here about the New York Times-Siena poll that came out just yesterday in Kansas. And why is it so competitive? In addition to the candidate quality issue, it is about the issues themselves. Gas prices, whether that President Trump has strong disapproval among likely voters. 56 % have a strong disapproval of Trump's handling of gas prices, cost of living, a majority of voters.

15:21War in Iran, a majority of voters. Tariffs, nearly a majority, but far more than the disapproval rating, way higher than Republicans would like at this moment. So it shows you it's the economic conditions that are giving Democrats a real chance in Kansas. Absolutely. In Kansas, a major farm state. And we haven't seen Roger Marshall split with the president on the war as sharply as some other Senate candidates. But we did see him send a letter to the Trump administration, I think it was a couple weeks ago, asking to see if there's anything they can do to provide temporary relief for high diesel prices, which are probably disproportionately impacting a state like his.

15:55And so you're seeing him take actions that are, I think, responding to the political reality on the ground in a state like Kansas. And let's look at the money. We've talked about the money going into Kansas. It's been a little bit so far that has gone in there. But just when you look at the whole battleground, the story of the last few weeks has been the amount of GOP money flooding into these states after a very favorable Supreme Court ruling, and Republicans hope that that can turn the tide in these margin-of-error races. And you look at these, there's the amount that they're still outspending Democrats pretty much almost everywhere.

16:25Ohio, look at Ohio there on your screen there, 80 million bucks, 85 million bucks going into that race. Texas, just so much money going into Texas. This is future ad reservations from now until the end to Election Day. They're pretty much all down the map, David Weigel. Michigan, you look at almost double the amount that Republicans are spending versus Democrats. The question for Democrats is can they sustain this barrage that is coming against them because they're going to be outspent until Election Day. Yes, and they knew that was coming, and they knew that there are candidates who are very attractive to online donors, small donors, more in the Bernie wing.

17:02then people like Hamilton's raised money, but he's not raising a hand over fist like a progressive candidate would be who excites the bases quite the same level. They are adjusting to that. Now, in some cases, they are trying to finesse that and say, why is all this money being spent against me? You saw Troy Jackson do a version of this in Maine. All these ads you're seeing are because the 1 %ers want to influence the race. That's kind of the only comeback they have. It's just to find some way to make that big money toxic. that the the it might work because you notice even in republican messaging my favorite ad of the cycle is or is one that goes after somebody for accepting dark money usually an ad funded by by one right by one uh very wealthy person going using a pass through another this is a case in wisconsin where richard uline is basically funding the republican campaign for governor the only democratic comeback is why is this billionaire so interested in funding us and look last year in the supreme court race that worked making elon the face of that but that's all you got.

17:57You can't get them to stop spending. You just have to make them toxic. Right. And speaking of that, there's a ton of money, as we mentioned, into Texas, the Senate GOP PAC, the Texas PAC. How much they've spent over the last 17 days? $131.5 million over 17 days. That is absolutely insane. And then you look at what some of these monies they've spent money on, how they've spent their money. There was this very interesting ad that came out just yesterday. This the estranged wife of Ken Paxton, Angela Paxton, who's actually accused him of infidelity, cutting this ad just yesterday. I'm Texas Senator Angela Paxton.

18:39People have asked my thoughts about this election, and it turns out I have some. Let's talk about the elephant in the room. In a general election, it's not as much about the individual players on the team. It's about getting the whole team across the finish line. I'm voting for the Republican ticket on November 3rd. Man of Texas? What do you think about that? It's a striking ad to see. It's kind of a political break glass moment in that race, given how Angela Paxton has been very under the radar in this race. Obviously, as you pointed out, in the process of divorcing, Ken Paxton has accused him of infidelity.

19:10And so to see her appear for a Republican group supporting Ken Paxton in this race on TV, I assume there's some serious money behind it, given how much money this particular group has put into Texas, is very, very striking and probably shows just how competitive this race has gotten. and also how concerned the Republicans are about Republican women in this race. I know that Angela Paxson has previously given a speech to Republican women with a very similar message. They really want to get them on board at the end of this race. And you've seen Paxson, he's had ads with his kids and trying to soften his image.

19:43During the primary campaign, John Cornyn was going after all these alleged infidelities as well. That was actually a centerpiece of his closing message in that primary. That's right. It's always kind of a tell this late in a race if a candidate is appearing with their children or their spouse. That normally means that they're looking at very strong negatives and they're trying to furnish their image. This is like that on steroids. This is I'm getting my estranged wife to cut an ad for me. I will note that in that ad, she never mentions the name Ken Paxton. You are supposed to be a voter who is aware of all of the dynamics here, knows who she is and knows why she's cutting this ad to begin with.

20:16You know, you wonder if there's a little bit of a Streisand effect with like lower information voters. Like, wait, what's going on here? Right, right. Very quickly, you think it'll work? No, it does remind me of 2016, but again, minus all those great dynamics moving in Republicans' direction. Without that, just saying vote for the team work, I think it's less effective. All right, okay, we're going to have to digest this a little bit more during the break. And then after the break, why Democrats are sounding the alarm in a state Trump lost three times. I hit the trail in the Granite State in a race now considered a toss-up.

20:48Is John Sununu a Republican who can flip the script this midterm cycle and head off a blue wave? Well, the former GOP senator is mounting a comeback bid in New Hampshire, distancing himself from President Trump while trying to flip a Democratic seat. His Democratic challenger, Chris Pappas, is sounding the alarm. I hit the trail with both of them this past week in the neck-and-neck race. This is the nightmare scenario for Democrats. They have a great night on November 3rd, but something goes wrong, and that's here in New Hampshire. And that's because of John Sununu, the former Republican senator.

21:24Someone who's trying to win his seat back after losing in 2008, now going up against a congressman of eight years, Democrat Chris Pappas. Are you wondering, you know, Sununu's name obviously goes a long way here in this state. Oh, yes, absolutely. There's a lot of Sununu's, but we're done with Sununu's. Sununu is trying to battle all of the headwinds that Republicans are facing across the map, particularly here in the Northeast, a state, a bluish state, a place that Donald Trump has lost three times. But Sununu has a different brand. He is someone who comes from a political dynasty of sorts in New Hampshire.

22:01His father was a governor. His brother was a governor. He is a former senator, and that name still carries some weight. How hard is it to run against that brand? Yeah. Well, he doesn't put his first name on his signs because he's hoping to stoke the confusion about which Sununu's on the ballot. You think that's a strategy? Well, yeah. His brother was governor for eight years, was a popular, pretty moderate governor on balance. John is a much more conservative guy, was down the line for George W. Bush when he was our senator before. Are you trying to confuse voters? No, that's the most, look, I'm using the same signs I've ever used.

22:37That's actually a very silly question, Manu. He said it, I didn't say it. Yeah, well. And they're running ads about it, too. Look, when you get desperate, you'll say anything. And the fact of the matter is, I'm running ads with my picture, my voice, talking to the people of New Hampshire about how I'm going to tackle affordability. Even with several GOP seats in their reach, it's two Democratic seats causing them deep anxiety. As polls show a tight race for the open New Hampshire seat, currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Gene Shaheen, and GOP groups outspending Democrats here and nearly everywhere.

23:18Democrats see an expanding map. Should they think twice before trying to throw money into other states and focus on a seat they need to keep? I think the majority won't be flipped if we don't hold this seat in New Hampshire. Right now we're being outspent anywhere from two to three to one on TV and on digital. And that's the situation that most Democratic candidates are facing across the country. On the airwaves in New Hampshire are many GOP attacks like these. Chris Pappas looked voters in the eye and lied. Pappas dated an Amazon lobbyist, voted on bills that Amazon lobbied on. Should you have done anything differently, voted differently, recused yourself, disclosed your relationship, anything like that?

24:00It's been seven years since he had that job, and my votes are always for the people of New Hampshire. So, you know, I disclose everything, I follow all the rules, and I'm going to continue to do that. And what's really rich is you have$60 million coming into New Hampshire's Senate race from Trump, from Elon Musk, that want to maintain control of the U.S. Senate. For Pappas, who once ran his family's iconic Manchester restaurant, his task is to convince independent-minded voters that he's not tarnaged by the image of his own party, including in the town of Salem, where Trump won three times. I'd like to tell you that I really am a very strong supporter of the Pappas agenda, but I don't think he has always served us well as well.

24:47Why do you say that? That's why it's a toss-up. I think it's very easy to get caught up in the partisan politics and be more interested in representing your team than your state. Is the Democratic brand toxic here in New Hampshire? It's not in a good place nationally. But what New Hampshire voters know is that I'm a different kind of Democrat. They see me as someone who's a small business owner, who's a community member. Not part of the National Party. It's separate from the National Party. Who's been a pragmatic voice in Congress. And I've stood up to my party, as I've mentioned, on issues where they're wrong.

25:24Chris Pappas very much trying to make this race about cost of living. Here in the nation's largest pin maker, they're hearing concerns about the impact that tariffs in the Iran war are having on their bottom line. Frankly, everything that's been promised not only hasn't been delivered, but Trump has done the reverse of what he's promised to do. So I have a feeling there's going to be a pretty big swing towards blue. Now, Democrats, they're trying to turn the focus to Sununu's career after he lost his Senate race in 2008, when he worked as a policy advisor for the D.C. firm Akin Gump. After voting for special interests, he got kicked out of the Senate and spent the next 15 years cashing in.

26:03And I caught up with Sununu here at a county fair in Deerfield, New Hampshire, a Republican stronghold. Are people concerned here about the revolving door of politics? I'm an engineer by training. I worked in manufacturing, technology, ran the operations of a manufacturing company in Manchester successfully before I was elected to Congress. After leaving the Senate, I've gone back to technology. Look, I'm very proud of the work I've done in the private sector. I've never lobbied any member of Congress on any issue for any company. And Chris Pappas knows that's true. Now, even though Sununu backed Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential primary, he even wrote an op-ed bashing Trump with the headline that said, Trump is a loser.

26:46Trump did give Sununu his endorsement this cycle, giving Sununu a big boost in that Republican primary. You also wrote an op-ed in 2024 with the headline that said, Trump is a loser. Do you stand by what was said in that piece, really criticizing him? Sure. Look, I didn't support Donald Trump in 2016. I didn't support him in 2024. Yeah, I supported Nikki Haley. So this is New Hampshire, right? You stand up for the candidate that you believe in. And my focus, again, is on... But he supported you, Trump. He endorsed me, although, frankly, I've never met him. You've never met him, never talked to him?

27:24No, no, no. I think, you know, he knew I was going to win the race. And nobody loves a good batting average better than the president. And look, if the president pushes policies that I think are bad for New Hampshire, I'll oppose him. If he pushes policies that I think are good for New Hampshire, I'll support them. And now Sununu is careful in how he navigates the Trump factor in this blue-leaning state. Do you think, though, when it comes to Iran and tariffs, should the president end the Iran war? Should he end his war with Canada on tariffs? Look, I said from the very beginning it was a mistake to go in when we didn't have a plan for keeping the straight open.

27:59The focus now needs to be get the strait moving, get the oil commerce flowing. I think our allies in the region could be doing even more to support that. And look, we never should have picked a trade fight with Canada. And again, you know, that's always been my position because it doesn't make sense for the people here in New Hampshire. Would you vote to limit the president's war powers in Iran if you had a chance? Look, I would support any effort to get us out of Iran, keep the strait open, and again, focus on the source of funding for terrorist proxies in the region. Do you want Trump to campaign with you?

28:38I've said many times, I don't need anyone to come into New Hampshire to campaign for me. All right, my excellent panel is back. Johnson, very much as you heard at the end there, breaking from Trump. Could that be enough of a strategy to win in this blue state? You know, it may be, but I think this race has been a very interesting trajectory. Republicans liked John Sununu going into this race. He was relatively well-known, relatively well-liked. You look at that New York Times-Siena poll that was just on the screen a little while ago, and these two candidates, Pappas and Sununu, had nearly identical name recognition and nearly identical favorability ratings.

29:11And so to the extent that Sununu has some kind of unique brand here, you're not necessarily seeing it in the polling at the end here. You're seeing this race, I think, become a little more polarized. Yes, Republicans have been outspending Democrats on the air here. If you look at future ad reservations, though, for the remainder of this race, the gap is closing. And so this is starting to look more like a traditional, you know, toss up battleground race. And if that's the, that would be good news for Pappas if that becomes the case, if it becomes more of a traditional race. How do you see this playing out?

29:39Well, look, Republicans have to play here, right? If they are giving up sort of a close to forfeiting a pickup opportunity in Georgia, pulling money out of North Carolina. This is a state where Republicans can say, look, New Hampshire voters are used to splitting their ticket. There is a Republican governor who has won one other. Who's on the ticket now. Who's on the ticket. That race is a trending Republican. So they can say like, look, Republicans and Democrats in this state are used to splitting their ticket. These are independent voters, live free or die. You know, I still think the trend is probably going to be what we're seeing nationally.

30:11Yeah. And David, you've seen, you've reported about how in blue states, Democrats seem to be having a harder time than in some red states. In blue states where they govern, that is one thing. Yes, Pappas is going to need a lot of people to vote for Kelly Ayotte and then vote for him, which he's done in his House race. But the more he can make this a referendum on Trump and the issues that you saw in your interview, less about the Democratic Party's brand, he's probably being helped by that every day, by the news out of the Middle East and the news that the Trump administration makes for itself.

30:41And that's perhaps one reason why Sununu is making very clear he's not in favor of that and trying to break from Trump on those very key issues. All right, thanks for that. And still ahead for us, a tantalizing new question on the Supreme Court as it returns to a new term tomorrow. Will there soon be a vacancy that lets Trump nominate his fourth justice? Will that happen this year?

31:05As if the stakes for control of the Senate were not already high enough, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito says in rare public remarks that he is weighing retirement. Something I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term. But I thought that I could still make a valuable contribution, which is why I became a justice and a judge in the first place. So that was basically it. So you'll be kind of reconsidering this probably every year, rethinking it. Yeah, I think I have to.

32:08possible. We saw what happened in late 2020 when all of a sudden Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and Donald Trump appointed Amy Coney Barrett and changed everything. I don't think he would do that. That would be so patently politically opportunistic. Now, just what he said in that interview with CBS, he thinks about it. He's been thinking about it as an annual routine. Once he got into his mid-70s, he started thinking about, can I make another year? Can I make another year? and he's felt strong enough to do that. But the specter of Justice Ginsburg hangs over everything. But she was 87. He's just 76.

32:45I don't think he would do it, but there's a lot of pressure on him. A lot of Republicans think, just when I heard your intro and you said a fourth seat for Donald Trump, I mean, that does give a lot of people the shakes, not the GOP, of course, but a lot of people on the other side of the shakes. So possible, unlikely, I would think. Because you know what he says? He says he rules, he's hard right, of course. He's hard right. He's very much in sync with Donald Trump. But he says that's because of the law, as he sees it, not because of politics. And if he were to leave, it would be all about politics.

33:17That's such a good point. Okay, let's talk about the new term, because it starts tomorrow. Two questions for you. One, do we expect any last-ditch efforts to try to change the midterm elections that we could see before November? And also, what are you expecting in this new term? Oh, we definitely could see some changes. If there's fights, you know, like, let's just think of all the things that could happen. Intimidation at the polls, failure to certify, problems with the counting, problems with the seating, everything. There are so many choke points that could happen. We don't see anything yet, but Democrats definitely are worried about what might be on the horizon.

33:54So, yes, things could come back to the court. But in terms of cases that they already have, starting tomorrow, we have a very big climate change issue where Boulder is suing several energy companies for the harms, the health effects and the public safety effects of burning fossil fuels. And the companies say, no, this is not your right to do it. these lawsuits are preempted by federal law, by the Clean Air Act, and the Trump administration has actually joined in saying, no, you cannot do this. So the justices are going to decide whether states have that kind of authority or not. And so you have these cases.

34:34Yes. Meantime, you have Trump, the way he's just been going after these justices. Just last week, to Time Magazine, Joan, he says, he was asked by the reporter there, do you regret nominating them, referring to the justices who have ruled against him. He said, yeah, yeah, what can I do? I put them in. They voted against me too often. I gave them the position of a lifetime. They vote against me often. Of course, everything about Trump is about he expects total judicial loyalty, not judicial independence. But, Joan, does this weigh on the justices at all? They see Trump bashing them. How much does it affect their ultimate decisions?

35:10Well, they don't like the criticism and what they worry about is that it gins up people on the outside that would additionally harass the justices at a time when they're so worried about security. But what it does for some of them, including I think the chief justice, it's a little bit of a badge of honor because you know that Chief Justice John Roberts and several of his conservative colleagues are often seen as in the bag for Donald Trump, that they're only ruling for Donald Trump. They're not. They've given Donald Trump plenty. But when the president criticizes them, they can say, see, he doesn't like us either.

35:46It kind of helps them in some ways. Seriously, it does. But I think overall, none of them like the kind of atmosphere that they're in now, where they're getting so much criticism. And what they also fear is, especially from progressives and moderates, is the idea that there are proposals out there for court expansion, for court packing, and they see that as a real threat to their integrity. So they're trying, the Chief Justice John Roberts is trying to navigate a course where he is very conservative and he is ruling for a lot of the president's initiatives, but he doesn't want the court to be seen as linking arms with Donald Trump.

36:27Yeah, and you've literally written the book about John Roberts, so I want to ask you about how he views the public views him right now and the court specifically. There's a new Gallup poll that was out about the trust for the judicial branch and the Supreme Court among Americans. Not good. I mean, a great deal. Just 12 percent have a great deal of trust, 34 percent a fair amount. And you see not very much and none at all. That's a majority of voters right there. How does the chief justice navigate this? How concerned is he about this? I think he is very aware of the court's reputation and his own legacy.

37:03This is a chief who came on as the youngest chief justice in about 200 years. And he came on at age 50. The only justice that was younger than him as a chief was the great Chief Justice John Marshall. And I think he has always thought, he's always been aware of his legacy. His colleagues say he's always been aware of how history is going to view him. So this really matters to him, but I don't know if he has figured out a way to do much about it. And what can he do about it? And also, they're going to keep ruling the way they're ruling. Right. No question about that. And we'll see if that ultimately changes.

37:43I suspect it probably won't in terms of the trust among voters. Cora Joan, it's so great to talk to you before this critical term starts tomorrow. First Monday. Great day of the year. Absolutely. Absolutely. All right, coming up, why are Democratic candidates refusing to say they'll back Chuck Schumer as their party leader? And what Schumer said about his future this week, that's next. Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress? Our caucus is totally unified.

38:15It's not unusual for Senate leaders to lose support. Just ask the late Harry Reid, Senator Mitch McConnell, and now Chuck Schumer. The Democratic leader has been under attack from his left flank ever since he cut a deal last year to keep the government open, despite taking a hard line in three subsequent shutdown fights. And as the 75-year-old New Yorker faces re-election in 2028, there are real doubts he will run to keep his seat. But he has another election to worry about, his own, to be Democratic leader in the next Congress. And with just 29 % of Democratic-leaning voters holding a favorable view of Schumer, that's according to a July CNN poll, it's perhaps not surprising that Democratic candidates refuse to say if they'll support him for the top job.

39:04Will you support him to become leader? I don't know. I'm not doing punitry. Would you vote for him? Well, first, I've got to get elected. Second, I've made no commitments to anyone. Does your party leadership in the Senate need to go? Chuck Schumer specifically. I've said I'd wait to see once the dust settles from this election who I'll support and who's running, but we need new voices at the table. So Schumer should be replaced. I'd love to see Chris Van Hollen as leader. You said you're going to vote against Chuck Schumer if he's next to the Democratic Party. Is that right? Yeah. Why do you want him out, Schumer?

39:36Well, I think mostly just because I think it's time for new ideas. This past week, I put that discontent to Senator Schumer himself. Have you become too toxic to lead your party in the next Congress? Our caucus is totally unified. We're in great shape. Everyone is really very, very pleased with where we are today compared to where we were 20 months ago under our leadership. And we're fighting hard and we're on the edge of taking back the Senate. Will you definitely run again? Go ahead. Now, Schumer later told Punchbowl News and Politico that, in fact, he is running for leader again, saying, quote, I am running for reelection for leader, period.

40:19Schumer is widely expected to win that secret ballot vote, which will take place in November after the midterms. That's it for Inside Politics Sunday. Up next, here's the new with Jake Tapper and Dana Bass. Jake's guests include White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the lawyer for Jane Doe in the Cornell case, Thomas Jeffra, and the attorney for Christophe Pike in Tennessee, Stephen Farrell. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us. We'll see you next time. I'm Adi Cornish. I'm Ari Shapiro and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend.

40:57Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer blogger. But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who at this point kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is... I'm going to be passion terrible now. Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches and then they make it over and over and over again.

41:32The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the Internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.