The Midterm Showdown: Trumpapalooza and Its Impact

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1:06Payday. The president starts to spend his cash. But as endangered Republicans skip Trumpapalooza. Are you going to go to the Republican convention? I've never been to a convention, so this doesn't really change anything. Is he about to hurt the candidates he needs most? I'm going to go to every one of those 35 places. We'll dive into the closest races as the midterms kick off in earnest next. And never too early, with voting just beginning for 2026. Top Democrats and Republicans make their moves on 2028. That's an innovative way to ask the question, but I'm still not going to take the bait. And exclusive this morning, embattled Senator John Fetterman gives me his first reaction to his latest controversy.

1:55Plus, fourth down. As football kicks off, Congress about to transform college sports. It fixes the problem of college athletics. Inside Politics, the best reporting from inside the corridors of power, starts now.

2:16Good morning. Welcome to Inside Politics Sunday. I'm Manu Raju. After months of pleading from Republican leaders, President Trump's political organization, this weekend finally began dipping into his massive$400 million war chest to flood the airwaves ahead of the midterms. But will it be enough in a brutal environment for the GOP? General election voting kicked off this weekend as North Carolina became the first state to mail absentee ballots. Now, as Trump faces rock-battle bottom approval ratings, does it make sense politically for the president to put himself front and center? Well, he's about to do just that, as the president will play a starring role this week in the unprecedented midterm GOP convention in Texas that is being dubbed Trumpapalooza, with new details on the festivities just released.

3:09But, well, with less than two months to go, is that what endangered Republicans clinging to their seats really want? Well, let's break this all down with my excellent group of reporters, Bloomberg's Nea Malika Henderson, Dave Weigel from Semaphore, and political reporter and author Molly Ball. Good morning to you all. Happy Sunday. So weekend news about this rather interesting event that's coming up this week, this Dallas convention, this midterm convention. The speakers announced for this two-day event next week. And surprise, surprise, President Trump will be speaking both nights of the event.

3:49J.D. Vance will be the headliner on the second night. Trump is supposed to be giving closing remarks on that event. There are also some other interesting people on this list. The Attorney General of the United States, Todd Blanche, typically the Attorney General does not play a political role. Well, we've seen something different in this administration. Todd Blanche is one of the headliners here, as is the HHS Secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And then there are also some vulnerable Republicans and some candidates who are on the ballots who will also be speaking here. John Husted, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the United States Senate.

4:20He will be speaking at this event. Others who believe they need to attach themselves to him. Interesting that Mike Lawler, another vulnerable Republican, will be one of the convention speakers here. Molly, what do you think about this lineup here heading into this week? Well, look, if you are a vulnerable Republican, if you're a John Husted, The calculation is, on the one hand, the president is not popular, and aligning yourself with him might not be the best thing for you politically when you're trying to win a tough state. In a red state, it should be said, but particularly in swing districts and swing states.

4:59On the other hand, what you need is that base turnout. And the whole point of this midterm convention is to remind the Republican base, to gin up enthusiasm among the Republican base, to remind, you know, those conservatives who are still loyal to the president but might not be motivated to get off the couch in a midterm year, to just juice up their enthusiasm, bring, you know, bring the red meat, as it were. So some of these candidates are making the calculation that there's more upside than downside in doing that. But we also see a lot of candidates who are making the opposite calculation, right?

5:36A lot of reporting about all the Republicans who are not going to this midterm convention, vulnerable Republicans, you know, like a Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania who have made the decision that actually this might be more downside. Speaking of which, there are Republicans who are not on this list who are speaking. The Senate Majority John Thune, not on the list of convention speakers. They said they could add speakers later. We'll see how that transpires. We've seen Trump and Thune have a little bit of a row this summer. Susan Collins, one of the most vulnerable Republicans herself, clearly opting to stay back home.

6:10Dan Sullivan, another vulnerable Republican, not going to be one of the speakers here. Ashley Hinson, she was not on the list either. She is an Iowa Republican running in that critical race there. You see some others along the list. I asked several of them last week when the House was in session. Are you going to go to the convention?

6:54convention next week? I'm planning to be in my district. Are you going to go to the Republican convention? Are you going to go to the Republican convention? That last comment was from Jen Kiggins, who is a Virginia Republican in a difficult swing district there. Yeah, yeah. And I guess it was James Comer saying that he has stuff to do. So it won't be there. Stuff doing a lot of work in that sentence. Listen, there is no real upside for a lot of these folks. I mean, And they're right. They probably should be home in their district campaigning for the voters there. You know, the purpose of Trump and Molly is exactly right.

7:29It is sort of a plea to come home to daddy, right? Daddy being Donald Trump in this sense. You saw what he did in that South Carolina Senate race where he essentially told those voters to pretend that I am on the ballot. And a lot of them did. And they voted for Darlene Graham. And she, of course, won. And so that's essentially what the argument is going to be here. The voters come out for Donald Trump. So what if you don't like some of these candidates? Maybe they don't even know some of these candidates. But Trump is going to say, think about me and come out. And we'll see what we'll see. Listen, how many people watch this and how many people watch the NFL games on.

8:07Yeah, that's the other part of the problem. And the other part of the problem is that, look, you Trump is going to be the issue no matter what, which is probably one reason why someone like a Mike Lawler says I'm going to show up and speak because they're going to make Trump the issue. I might as well try to get the good parts of Trump and attach myself to him in that way. But here are the bad parts of Trump if you're a Republican on the ballot. He's sitting at 35 % right now in the approval ratings compared to, say, you know, Bush in the similar time. Of course, it was post-9-11. In 2002, he was at high mark at 66%.

8:35But still, Trump is lower than his predecessors at this point ahead of the midterms. That's a troubling sign for a Republican. It is, but running away from the president doesn't work that well either. There is not a model to follow to have a successful second administration midterm. Typically, candidates say, I'm not like the president. Look how independent I am, and they lose anyway. So the overall structure of this, everyone's got it right. It's about running Republicans. We'll probably hear the phrase is the most important midterm election of our lifetime, if not election of our lifetime. Mike Johnson's been saying this all year.

9:07Democrats are going to come into the majority and impeach Trump if they get it. That is not that inspiring for most people of a message. even Democrats can say they're impeaching. I think you're going to see more a defense of the Trump record. Again, a thing presidents always try to do in the midterm that mirrors what you've seen in campaigns around the country since the primaries are kind of over for Republicans. Their messaging is if the affordability problem is basically fixed. Just trust the president, taxes are down. They're going to, I think, repeat. I'd be shocked if Michael Lawler doesn't talk about salt when he's there.

9:37Affordability is already getting fixed because of this president. It'll be a lot of how Democrats have become a communist party that's going to destroy the country if they win. I don't think it'll be ineffective for Republicans. Now, there's a reason parties stopped doing this, but there haven't been many parties that are this based around the personality of one president. Even the governing theory is based around one president. The Republican theory of giving us power in this midterm is let the president finish this job for two years with no encumberment. People haven't tried that before. And what the Republicans really want to do is, of course, his cash.

10:07Remember, he's sitting on a massive word chest with his MAGA, Inc. organization that has really not spent this midterm season. There was news yesterday that finally dipping in to help Ken Paxton in Texas. This was Trump's choice in that Republican primary in Texas. The Republican leaders won the incumbent. John Cornyn instead Republicans have been pleading, okay, please help Ken Paxton. There was a$10 million ad buy just yesterday to help Ken Paxton in this race. This was the campaign ad that the organization cut and released, part of which Texans are seeing right now. James Tallarico supported a trillion-dollar tax hike.

10:45Higher property taxes and higher taxes on Social Security. Tallarico, higher taxes. Paxton, lower taxes. A clear choice. You know, what I found interesting about this is that they are trying to make this a clear, just Republican versus Democrat, typical race in Texas, even though this is not a typical race. and Pax is a much different character than, say, John Cornyn, because they believe ultimately this is a Republican state, and Republicans will come home if you make it focused on the issues that they believe drive out their voters. Absolutely. The most conventional message imaginable. The Republican will keep your taxes low, the Democrat will raise them.

11:20Nothing at all about the specific candidates, who, of course, have many interesting features in this race, but Republicans are breathing a huge sigh of relief just seeing this money go out, because Trump has been sitting on this cash with very little indication, even privately, about how and when and where they're going to deploy this money, and particularly this Texas race where, you know, the Republican establishment blames Trump for this flawed candidate who they have as their nominee. It is really on Trump and his operation to shore up, Ken Pack. And the question is going to be$10 million now.

11:50You know, about$8 million is about how much you pay for a single week in Texas to advertise. Will they continue to provide that money up until Election Day? That's going to be a huge question in the weeks ahead. All right, coming up, The primary season is about over in the battle for the Senate, but don't sleep on this week's sleeper race. I'll dive into the maps, plus a Supreme Court ruling late Friday that could give the GOP a major boost in November. That's next. This holiday, all plans, even unlimited, are just$15 a month. A holiday deal this good obviously deserves an enormously expensive holiday song, like All I Want...

12:29Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Big news! Wayfair's Black Friday sale is here. Early! Right now at Wayfair, get up to 70 % off everything you need for the season ahead. Save on kitchen and dining, bedroom furniture and mattresses, holiday decor, and way more.

13:03Now is the time to score big, from seasonal finds to favorites you'll use all year long. Plus, with Wayfair, enjoy fast and easy shipping with delivery and time for the holidays. Save up to 70 % off early Black Friday deals. Shop now at Wayfair.com. Wayfair, every style, every home. Leaders in both parties are now making critical decisions that could determine the next Senate majority. where to spend their gobs of cash. Those decisions could swing a race a few points, enough to determine control of the chamber. Now, Republicans won a huge court fight late on Friday that will let both parties' campaign arms buy TV time at discounted rates given to candidates.

13:45Democrats in particular are furious because their candidates tend to have more money and have been expected to dominate the air war in the final stretch. And new expensive states are coming on the map, like New Hampshire, a Democratic seat now considered a toss-up by inside elections. My panel of political insiders is back. So first on the Supreme Court, the significance of this ruling. I mean, there have been a number of huge wins that the Republicans have had this term from the Supreme Court. There's a Voting Rights Act case that completely redid how ostrich declines are going to be redrawn, especially impactful in the next election cycle mail-in voting Texas redistricting there was a new earth 11th congressional district case but perhaps nothing bigger than this because it's about money in the amount of money that will be spent and Nia just to look at the map here about where things stand in terms of where the money has been gone has been shifting just in this past week September 1st through December 7th the Republican money advantage has been pretty remarkable.

14:46Almost every single state here across the battlegrounds has had a Republican advantage. There's only one the Democrats are spending a little bit more money on and that's the North Carolina Senate race there as you can see 2.8 million to 2.6 million barely more than that. The Democrats absolutely must hold North Carolina but you're seeing up and down Republican advantage everywhere else and now even more money gonna come in because the party committees can run these coordinated campaign ads at these discounted rates and could flood the airwaves and could swamp the Democrats. Yeah, and you think about sort of the differential money advantage in terms of the parties, the RNC and the DNC, sort of the struggles at the DNC.

15:26This is a real problem. And as you laid out there, this has been the case for Democrats in terms of the Supreme Court, the redistricting. So they have a real uphill battle. Are midterms typically favoring the party that is out of power? Absolutely. But Donald Trump has done everything in terms of these decisions and putting pressure on these states to redraw their maps. So, listen, the Republicans have a real, real shot here. I think they probably still hold the advantage on the Senate, but it is going to be close in the House. And listen, what we've seen so far is surprises, right? Surprises on primary night.

16:04The polls seem to be way off oftentimes. So I expect when we are here in November, and it will probably not be decided necessarily on that night, there are going to be a lot of surprises. And I think in some of these races, particularly something like New Hampshire, and these races that are kind of under the radar, you are in North Carolina, the Democrats have to wake up because this is no sure thing for these candidates. No question about it. And we talked about New Hampshire, and there's a big, the final primary, One of the final primaries of this very long primary season will be on Tuesday in New Hampshire.

16:37The candidates here on the ballot, Chris Pappas, who's actually on the show last week, he's the favorite candidate that the Democratic leaders want him very much to win that race. He's facing a Democratic Socialist candidate, Krishma Mansoor. And one poll had had her a little bit closer than Democrats had been. They saw that and it kind of was a wake-up call for them there. And on the Republican side, the Republican leadership is behind the former Senator John Sununu, not so much against the other former senator, not for the former Senator Scott Brown, who does not have the support of the party establishment, or the present Sununu, the heavy favorite there.

17:15David, you've covered this pretty closely. How do you see this, if it is a Chris Pappas, assuming he wins, versus Sununu race, how is that going to shake out? Can the Democrats actually lose that race? It's a good test of the money story that we were just talking about, because who has an advantage in going into the MAGA spending wave? Someone like James Tallarico, who's been very exciting to small donors around the country and exciting to the sort of liberal donors in San Francisco and New York who give big to candidates. Chris Pappas is a more moderate Democrat who has been able to outperform the ticket.

17:48That's not who's exciting to small donors. And so is John Sanunu's exciting to your average Republican Trump voter? Not really. He voted for Nikki Haley in the primary last time. But he has, Trump is not asking very much of candidates that he thinks can win competitive races. You have Susan Collins next door. He is not on her case, on True Social, criticizing her for criticizing him. He is willing to give people some allowance, more than it turns out Democratic voters are willing to give to some of their candidates. One, they're not as excited. And Democrats expect Pappas to win this primary. They put out an internal polling that showed him doing very well.

18:21But watch the debate this week. You have a progressive candidate who is running against him as an insider who won't say that Israel's committing genocide, who won't call out for Medicare for all, et cetera, et cetera. You're right that this is the end of it. But we had six months of Democrats having much more ideologically testy primaries. And if they come out with a moderate candidate, somebody who's not as exciting to donors, if they come out with a left wing candidate, somebody who like an Abdul Zayed, who's hoping that things can be bygones with the establishment because he needs he needs super PAC money to bail him out.

18:48Yeah, and just why New Hampshire is important. It's often overlooked when you look at the Northeast because this is, of course, very, very blue. But, you know, Kamala Harris back in 2024, look, she won, but not by a ton. And then you look at the governor's race that cycle. Kelly Ayotte, the winner of the governor's race here. And there it is on your screen. Kelly Ayotte winning pretty handedly. And New Hampshire is a peculiar state where the governor is on the ballot again. and that's going to be potentially an issue with Kelly Ayotte. And then, you know, look at 2020 presidential. Joe Biden won, you know, by a fair amount, but it wasn't a blowout.

19:26So these races can be pretty close, you know, 2026 back on the map there. So, Molly, this is not something that Democrats have to take seriously. Well, look, the upshot of all this is the Democrats are going to have to spend money on the New Hampshire Senate race. And that is a seat that they already hold. So they would prefer to be spending that money in the seats where they are on offense, the seats that they actually need to take back to win the Senate. And so this is yet another place where they're going to have to be spending money that they do not have to spare. And a lot of this, Nia alluded to this, goes back to the Democratic angst about what's been happening at the DNC.

19:59And, you know, Chairman Ken Martin's inability to raise the fundraising that the party really needs for this midterm cycle. The party apparatus has been just broke for the most part for months with no end in sight. Donors clearly do not have confidence in this operation. The Senate and House committee is doing a little bit better. And individual candidates, as Dave mentioned, have a lot more enthusiasm behind them. But this is a real problem for the Democrats. And I think we're going to hear, after this cycle is over, continuing recriminations and debate within the party about how this can be better institutionally.

20:42If there are races that are left off on the table, if there are winnable races, Democrats feel like... Yeah, and that's the question. Winnable races. Because, David, you reported a story with our colleague, Burgess Everett, our friend, about the red state. The red state calculation among Democrats. Can they actually win in a place like South Carolina? Can they actually compete in a place like Kansas where they think there's some polls that may show things are looking okay? Or Mississippi isn't even in play. I mean, this is the time where they've got to make the decision. Are we going to spend the money or are we not going to spend the money?

21:16Or probably not going to win because it's so deeply read. Yeah, and it probably helps Republicans that MAGA Inc. was holding out for so long. I don't think within MAGA Inc. talking to Republicans, they minded the mystery of where their aircraft carrier was going to go. And every Democrat is aware they could be running a campaign that is suddenly complicated by a$20 million ad buy. So, yes, Democrats, they want to, because Labor Day is important. It's a real kickoff of the election. They want people to be talking about how big the map is, how weak the Trump brand is outside of safe states. They're not wrong.

21:49If you look at the advertising in even a place like Kansas, Roger Marshall's not running as, I'm going to continue the president's fight for six more years. He's running on taking on credit card companies and big pharma. They're aware that the electorate is willing to listen to a non-Republican message right now. But the reality of this map comes back. Republicans know you're doing that because you want us to turn our eyes away from Michigan and New Hampshire. Yeah. Money resources are finite, as we know. So those decisions are crucial at this moment. All right. Coming up next, an exclusive. John Fetterman now responding to staffers who leaked his text messages portraying the senator as uninterested in his job.

22:29You'll be the first to hear what he's saying after the break.

22:52dot com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months or$180 for a 12-month plan required,$15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Senator John Fetterman is engaged in an extraordinary rift with his own staff. This after a stunning report in the Wall Street Journal with leaked text messages and accounts from former staffers, accusing the senator of routinely skipping constituent meetings and showing indifference to the job. All of the courts conservative media and battles the left flank of his party.

23:29The senator did not respond to the journal, but he did to me last night. It's his first statement on the controversy. You're hearing it here on Inside Politics Sunday for the first time. The senator called the report, quote, quote, the third hit piece from disgruntled staffers, per usual lies, half-truths, innuendos, smears, and anonymous. The senator then went on to talk about three of the incidents detailed in the journal report, calling them, quote, stripped of any context in circumstances. Now, in one text message from last September, as detailed by the Wall Street Journal, Fetterman asked his staff why he had to, quote, keep having to meet with officials from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia known as CHOP.

24:11Quote, because they're worried about Medicaid cuts, the aide said. Fetterman responded, quote, well I'm not. In the statement to me, Fetterman said, quote, I made a dumb joke and for that I sincerely apologize. But he pointed to a photo he posted on X, meeting with hospital officials and said, I've met with their team virtually and in person. My office and I will always have and always will advocate for CHOP, support the request and any other needs that we can assist with. Now, the Journal report also revealed that Fetterman skipped a funeral for three police officers killed near his hometown of York last September, citing a text message in which the senator griped at the service's three-hour length.

24:54Quote, this may be a non-starter, Fetterman wrote in the text, according to the Journal. In the statement to me, Fetterman said he took steps to express his condolences and meet with the family members affected. He said, quote, on the day of that tragedy, we privately ordered flowers to be delivered for their families and expressed my condolences publicly, he said, citing a post on X expressing his grief. In June of this year, I, quote, I privately attended a Tunnel to Towers fundraiser in York for the families. I met with their chief and the family members directly to express my personal condolences.

25:32Now, Fetterman, according to the Journal, also skipped a planned meeting with three paralyzed Pennsylvania veterans to discuss health care legislation. The paper reported that after Fetterman's staff told the veterans he was not feeling well due to something he ate, he showed up about an hour later in his office appearing fine and then conducted an interview on Fox News. In the statement to me, Fetterman said, quote, quote, it was my intention to meet with the group. Prior to the meeting, I was at home throwing up. So I asked my staff to continue with the meeting, which they did. Hours later, I felt well enough to continue the day as scheduled.

26:11The senator told me, quote, no matter how many smears or stories, I'm proud to continue to deliver for Pennsylvania. My excellent panel of political insiders is back. So, Nia, enough to quell the firestorm? No, I don't think so. I mean, if you look online, several people in Pennsylvania are calling for him to quit. He obviously won't. The story here is what's next for him. Does he actually run in 2028? Who challenges him in 2028? Conor Lamb has been out there doing town halls because Democrats are incensed with his behavior. And that came before this report. There, of course, was another report last year of a similar tone that he was kind of not living up to expectations for a senator.

27:01Apparently, there's going to be more of a drip with this new Twitter account of disgruntled staffers. This seems to be a new group of disgruntled staffers. There was another group before. So he's got a real challenge. But in the meantime, he's still a senator. He has floated this idea that he's going to switch or, you know, suggested that maybe he would leave the Democratic Party over the Israel issue. But he also says he isn't going to do that. So we'll see what he's going to do. But this is going to be a continuing story. And it's not enough to quell. Especially this issue of the former staffers.

27:34I mean, the fact that you don't see this, you don't see former staffers turning on their bosses the way that we're seeing with John Fetterman. And we're seeing now this new anonymous group of staffers begin an account on X called Former Staff, Former Fetterman Staff. Former Fetterman Staffers is their name. And they posted this. They said, we've come together to share our stories and screenshots to show Pennsylvanians exactly who they're senators. Set your calendar for September 14th, the day the Senate is back in session, for our first drop. So that's, wow. I mean, I don't recall seeing anything ever like that.

28:10Some of them are public. He's out with the books soon, and I think he's not shy about criticizing Fetterman, saying he let people down. Because why, if he's disputing details of the story to you, why does it make sense to voters in Pennsylvania this story? Because he ran on every county, every vote. He had the stroke. He's recovered very well, which I think everyone's grateful for. And he's not as present across Pennsylvania as he promised to be. Far from it. With Wisconsin, you can see people who had very tough elections, show up to town halls, get booed, show up to county fairs, get booed. He's not as present as he said he was going to be.

28:44And this is why Conor Lamb, Chris Deluzio, Bryant, Brendan Boyle are so confident attacking him. I also thought it was interesting in the aftermath of this story. You did not see the reaction you saw to the New York Magazine Ben Tara story last year. Republicans came out, arms locked, saying, no, this is a great man. Democrats just hate him because he's common sense. He's disagreeing with them. Those particular anecdotes were harder for them to defend. And this is something that those same people who won his seat are happy to push out there. That it's not just that he's not just a common sense Democrat talking about offending Israel.

29:13That he has let people down on this job and another Democrat can do it better. Who is going to donate him is the other question they're asking. The final thing, when we were talking about small donors before, who are the small donor Democrats who took a bet on him in 2022? Who are going to come back, staff a campaign, fund a campaign? The expectation has been he's going to need Republican help. And to that point, look, his numbers right now in Pennsylvania among Democrats are atrocious. I mean, 19%, according to the Quinnipiac poll, of Pennsylvania Democrats approve of his job performance. I had asked him about that a few weeks ago, and he said, I don't understand it because I vote with Democrats almost all the time.

29:48Yes, only about Israel and Iran, immigration, but he said he's in line with the Democratic Party. But you had mentioned the Adam Gentleson story. That's a former chief of staff who reported about concerns about John Fetterman's behavior. Fetterman totally dismissed that at the time. And I asked him just a flashback of what I asked him about Gentleson's comments in that and the aftermath of that just last year. It involved maybe two or three anonymous disgruntled staffers saying just absolute false things or half-truths there. Similar response. Well, look, I mean, this story by my former colleagues at The Wall Street Journal is absolutely devastating.

30:32They got, it's just incredible reporting and they got all kinds of great material from behind the scenes. On the other hand, none of this is new, right? A year ago, the same things were being said by different people. And so if, you know, Fetterman's response to you on the news story was this point by point explanation of these individual incidents, but these are part of a broader pattern that at New York Magazine, at the Philadelphia Inquirer, that many, many outlets have been reporting on. And so if it is a matter of disgruntled staffers, I think you have to ask yourself, why do his staffers keep getting so disgruntled?

31:05Because these are waves of successive staffers. And look, there's two issues here that get muddled, that get mixed together, and this allows Fetterman to muddy the waters, right? Because on the one hand, he's had this ideological transformation where he appears, you know, he's not just a supporter of Israel, but a real cheerleader for absolutely everything involving that conflict at a time when it's become much more controversial within the Democratic Party. And he says a lot of other things that strike people as right wing or helping Republicans. And simultaneously, these issues are about whether he's responding to his constituents, whether he's showing up, whether he's doing the job of a senator, and whether he's a danger to himself and others, which is something that some of these former staffers have said.

31:47And so, and I think as Dave said, the move he's made before is to just wrap himself in his friends in the Republican Party. But this is a bigger issue than just where he is on the issue. Yeah, we'll see. As we know, the story not ending, and it seems to be only developing. We'll see how that plays out. Fetterman's first response, you heard it right here. All right, coming up, the 2028 race for the White House is starting to take shape alongside the midterms. So why is Ted Cruz taking a shot at J.D. Vance? why Democrats are suddenly traversing the very states that will be the first to vote in the 2028 primaries.

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33:06Right. Okay, we can afford that. You know what? Forget the music budget. We're going to stick with whatever's in the public domain. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch.

33:26It was just a few weeks ago when Democrats reordered their primary states for 2028. And lo and behold, the very candidates who want to be the party's next presidential nominee have found themselves in those very same states. My panel is back. David Weigel, we've seen Newsom. He went to South Carolina. We're seeing Buttigieg going to South Carolina and New Mexico. And we're seeing J.D.B. Pritzker last week in New Mexico. And let's look at the map here. Huh. Wow. South Carolina, now the first to vote in the 2020 primary. New Mexico moving way up the map now to number four. It's just so much different compared to the 2020 map here.

34:07This is a much different map, and it just shows you the focus of these candidates. And we'll see who it ultimately benefits. And we'll see who they're campaigning with. Because South Carolina does not have many Democrats. You have the first district Democrats are making a reach to compete for that, reach for the Senate race. But who were they willing to campaign with? Because, yes, with AI you can merge any Democrat next to any Democrat you want. But it's more credible if, let's say, the candidate is willing to campaign on stage with somebody who wants to run for president. And you have found they are very comfortable with people to judge.

34:37They're very comfortable with Mark Kelly. they are less comfortable with Gavin Newsom because of the attacks Republicans run against him. Or Kamala Harris. Yeah, I was talking to Ro Khanna this week, and he said he's got more of an opening when he comes out with people because they know about him from the Epstein files. The independents are interested in him. In a way, they're not interested in AOC, who is not doing any of these stops. Yeah, and speaking of Newsom, this was his message on the campaign trail just this weekend. I don't believe it will be a free and fair election as we know it unless we take back the House of Representatives, unless we take back the Senate.

35:12Yeah, he goes on to say, Molly, that he knows, referring to Trump, that he's going to lose the election unless he rigs the election. Well, and Newsom has carved out this profile for himself. We saw since he really went on the attack over the National Guard deployments to L.A. and then the redistricting battle in California, he has been the loudest sort of anti-Trump voice, you know, doing this sort of Trump parody and so on. And the Democratic base has really responded to that. They really like it. And I think, as Dave said, there is still quite a bit of skepticism about Newsom's profile and what he represents, being the governor of California, being someone who's associated with a sort of more left wing of the party.

35:56But he's laying this foundation with the base of the party that I think is going to serve him very well in 2028, just because the more fans you have in the Democratic base, the better off you're going to be when that contest begins. Let's quickly talk about the Republican side, because Ted Cruz, there's been some reports about how he's taking steps to potentially run in 2028, and also taking a little bit of a shot at J.D. Vance. J.D. on foreign policy has disagreed with President Trump on almost every decision Trump has made this second term. J.D. negotiated the MOU with Iran, that was a terrible deal.

36:35Listen, I think if you're Republican, you sense that Donald Trump isn't totally sold on J.D. Vance in 2028. So enter somebody like Ted Cruz, maybe somebody like Pete Hegseth as well. They sense that J.D. Vance is a bit weak in terms of what his position can be in 2028. And J.D. Vance is obviously also trying to figure out what his coalition is going to be as well. He was asked some questions about Tucker Carlson, for instance. Tucker Carlson has been very critical of the president. He's refusing to sort of distance himself from Tucker Carlson. So listen, I think this field in 2028 on both sides is going to be very, very crowded, and Republicans are sensing that J.D.

37:18Vance might be sort of a weak frontrunner. And speaking of which, this is the Marquette University poll that had Vance's favorability ratings at 41 percent right now Among voters, 51 % unfavorable. We'll see how those numbers shift as we head into 2028. All right, coming up for us, do you recognize the players on your favorite college football team? Should both players really be able to come back to college? Well, Congress is finally closer to figuring out how to regulate it all. But can they actually get it done? That's next. Big news. Wayfair's Black Friday sale is here early. Right now at Wayfair, get up to 70 % off everything you need for the season ahead.

38:00Save on kitchen and dining, bedroom furniture and mattresses, holiday decor, and way more. Now is the time to score big, from seasonal finds to favorites you'll use all year long. Plus, with Wayfair, enjoy fast and easy shipping with delivery and time for the holidays. Save up to 70 % off early Black Friday deals. Shop now at Wayfair.com. Wayfair, every style, every home. Finally, college football is back. But to so many fans, there's a huge problem. Your team looks totally different than last year's. Some of your stars have left to go get big paychecks somewhere else. And now you're rooting for new players who may fill that void or they may turn out to be total disasters.

38:43Well, in recent years and under growing pressure from the NCAA, Congress has been trying to set an even playing field over how student-athletes make money from their name, image, and likeness, otherwise known as NIL, and to help set rules of the road over the transfer portal. Suddenly, there's momentum in the Senate behind a bill drafted by GOP Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell called the Protect College Sports Act. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to try to advance the bill this month once Senators return to Washington after their summer break. And they're getting some help from the sidelines, including this weekend from former Alabama football coach Nick Saban in a new TV ad backing the Senate bill.

39:28That tradition is worth defending. The Protect College Sports Act ends the NIL chaos in college athletics by protecting our student athletes and teams and safeguarding women's sports and Olympic programs. Join the winning team today. But don't spike the ball in the end zone quite yet. In fact, Senate Democrats are divided over the bill, with the AFL-CIO and NAACP opposed. And in May, the Congressional Black Caucus came out against the House version of the bill, known as the SCORE Act, because of a separate issue, gerrymandering House juridic lines in southern states, calling on the NCAA's power conferences to protest redistricting that could curtail black representation in the House.

40:16But the House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told me this week the bill still has a chance, especially if the Senate injects new momentum into the debate by passing its version this month. Obviously, we wanted to move the SCORE Act weeks ago. You saw the Black Caucus step away and try to make it about redistricting, which it wasn't, of course. It was about protecting college athletics. And that bill had a bipartisan coalition. If you look at what the SCORE Act does, it fixes the problem of college athletics. That's why all the schools, all the conferences, including all the HBCUs, support that bill.

40:53So what about Trump? Well, he's called for action from Congress and even met with Saban this year to call for new rules on college sports. But as the midterm election gets ever so close and bipartisan dealmaking gets even harder, will lawmakers punt once again? That's it for Inside Politics Sunday. Up next, today at the end, we'll be with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. Dana's guests include Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Democratic Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, as well as New York GOP Congressman Mike Lawler and his Democratic challenger Kate Conley. Thanks again for sharing your Sunday morning with us.

41:29We'll see you next time.

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