Trump Stokes Midterm Fears as Crucial Senate Races Tighten

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1:08I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:17There are 14 days, just two weeks until the election, and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could shift the balance of power right here in Washington and across the country. Here's what's on our midterm radar. We start with new numbers showing just how huge last minute ad spending is. More than$300 million in ads will flood the 10 Senate races CNN rate says most likely to flip from now until Election Day. The biggest ad buys are in Ohio, Texas and Iowa. Three states President Trump won handily two years ago, but now their Senate races are toss-ups. President Trump is taking his midterm message to North Carolina today after using unrest in France to stoke fear here at home.

2:06Here's what he said at a rally last night in Kansas. If you want to see what is at stake in this election, just look at what's happening in France, a once great nation that is being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground by migrants, jihadists, and communists who hate Christianity, and they hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself. When you see burning steeples and raging fires in France, just remember that is what the radical Democrats want to do to America. People in France have been protesting soaring costs, but some demonstrations have turned violent with rioting and looting. A new mayor's poll out of Ohio shows the Senate race is deadlocked.

2:52There's no clear leader between former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who wants to go back to the Senate, and beat the current Republican Senator John Husted. In the race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by seven points. President Trump has campaigned twice this month for Husted and Ramaswamy, but this poll puts his Ohio approval rating underwater at just 43 percent. Now to New Hampshire, where Republican Senate nominee John Sununu is out with a new ad distancing himself from his fellow Republican in the White House. The way Chris Pappas tells it, I'm President Trump's long lost son.

3:33I've never even met the man. When the president's policies are bad for New Hampshire, I'll oppose them. That's New Hampshire Independent. Registered independents outnumber both Democrats and Republicans in New Hampshire. Cook Political Report puts the race for Democrat Gene Shaheen's blue seat in the lean Democratic column. I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters. Hello, everybody. Two weeks. Buckle up. We're buckled. You've been buckled for a while. Can we just start with that Johnson & New ad? Because it's whenever, first of all, whenever a candidate does a straight to camera ad, it means like, listen, because I have something important that I want to tell you or more likely need to tell you politically.

4:19And as I mentioned, and as we all know, New Hampshire loves its independent streak. And I was told that it is so bad for Donald Trump in New Hampshire that people are going up to Sununu's, which is a very famous name and a respected name in New Hampshire, saying, I would love to vote for another Sununu, but I can't vote for a Republican. I need a check on the president. And that is a big reason why Johnson, who knew, put that ad out. Yeah. I mean, to me, it is the perfect example of what we mean about Trump as a drag on his party. And obviously that drag is different in different places, but a place like New Hampshire that yes, thrives on its attachment to independence and association with independents, but is a blue-leaning state in American politics, bluish tint of purple, if you will.

5:13And the fact that two weeks out, that's what is so telling to me, is like two weeks out that John Sununu needs to still make that case right now direct to camera, he hasn't solved as a candidate yet that fundamental Trump challenge in his candidacy. And obviously, Pappas is prosecuting this case and attaching him to Trump as much as he can. And when you have to go to camera and do that, that to me is a tell from the Sununu side, that Pappas pursuit of attaching Sununu to Trump is working. And it's all over the airway. It shows just how much the environment has deteriorated for Trump and the GOP.

5:47Because just a few weeks ago, this race was deadlocked. I mean, Sununu didn't feel the need to distance himself from Trump the way that he is having to do right now. Remember, Sununu used effectively Trump's endorsement in the primary to run away from Scott Brown, who was challenging him in that primary. He won overwhelmingly, in large part, with the support of Donald Trump. When I was up there a couple weeks ago, I asked him about it. He said the same thing to me. He said, I never asked for his support. Fine, he gave it to me. And he also stuck by his criticism of Trump, too. Remember, he wrote an op-ed back in the 2024 primary with the headline that said, Trump is a loser.

6:26He backed Nikki Haley in that primary. I believe when he was asked about this by local reporters in the primary, he said, I didn't write the headline. When I asked him about it, when I was up there a couple weeks ago, he said, oh, yeah, I stand by everything that was in there. Now he's going up with this ad. It just shows you how much he needs to distance himself because the polls are showing that Pappas has now got a lead. Yeah, and we're going to talk a little bit more about, as you mentioned, this is an open blue seat, a little bit more about how Democrats are defending those seats later in the show.

6:54But on the Trump of it all, the president, as I mentioned, is going to North Carolina today. This is an example of a Republican candidate who has campaigned in North Carolina, who has campaigned alongside Donald Trump, being asked about it and asked about the promise or the positivity of being in that situation. You were at the president's rally on Tuesday. You stood next to him. You spoke. You got his endorsement. Is that going to help you? I think so. I think so. Give or take, you know, everyone has an opinion. That just didn't seem to be the most confident answer. You know, I think you can read between the pauses in that that I found interesting just watching her response just now.

7:46But also, I do think there's a different calculus for different candidates, Republican candidates, depending on what their district looks like. Right. There are some ruby red districts that... But this is... Trump plus nine district. Trump plus nine is North Carolina 11. Chuck Edwards won that two years ago by 13 percentage points. Yeah, but quite frankly, Trump plus nine is no longer safe in this map. So I think that's where the pauses we saw come from. Like there's the old way of thinking, which is like, this is the Trump plus nine district. Of course I need Trump. But in 2026, you might be in a little trouble and it might give you a little pause.

8:22You don't want to... That's the other things. These Republicans don't want to be seen as disloyal. They don't want to get on Trump's bad side. They don't want him coming after them. So they're trying to be careful and not, you know, distancing themselves to Trump in a way that could cause his wrath, because that could be just as damaging as being tied to him. And to your point, according to Cook, it is now a toss up. So you're exactly right. Let's talk a little bit more about the money. I mentioned the expectation of$300 million. Let's just look at who and where some of that money is being spent, or at least expected to be spent.

8:58If you look at the advantages on the top here, by, well, number one, it's Republicans in Ohio, you see that, in Texas, in Michigan. The overall numbers are just eye-popping. But again, the Republican advantage on money, especially in these top three states, David, it's remarkable. Yeah. I mean, this has been, as you know, you talk to every Democratic operative in the closing months of this campaign season and you ask them sort of, OK, this is a favorable environment for you. What is what is giving you the biggest worry? And the answer repeatedly is the money advantage that Republicans have. And so putting that money to work to try in some of these places to basically save their Senate majority, that is what they're going to try to apply the advantage to.

9:49We know that money does not always solve for that. Not at all. And sometimes an environment is what it is, or candidate quality is what it is, and things can supersede the money. But my God, in these tight races, you'd rather be the one with the money advantage. Yeah. Speaking of candidate quality, that's a big question that Republicans have about their incumbent Republican in Kansas, Roger Marshall. There's been a big backdrop of criticism and headlines on Dr. Roger Marshall and how he billed the people who, his patients. And here's just some examples of the headlines. According to the New York Times, a doctor, this doctor, Roger Marshall, sued 700 patients for debts, Kansas City Star.

10:37He charged 18 % on medical bills. The president, again, was in Kansas last night. Here's what he said to try to defend him. He was given a bum rap because he was mandated by law to request strongly money owed from patients. You're not allowed not to do it. You have to, by law, go after those people. And they made it like, oh, he was some kind of a Shylock type guy. Shylock is an interesting word to use there. Just by way of context here, it has been used historically to demean Jews. The president has used it before. Joe Biden used it in 2014, but apologized for using it. Yeah. I mean, I think that word, which I'll be honest, I'm not familiar with.

11:26But if you use a word and people tell you, hey, that's anti-Semitic or that's problematic for whatever reason, and then you use it again, the first time you can claim ignorance. You can't later. And so I think that's what a lot of people are finding troubling, because he was called out for using this word before and has apparently kept it in his vocabulary. And just real quick, I do want to remind our viewers of the conversations that you've had in Kansas, including with the Democrat running against him, Adam Hamilton. He has won three times by double digits. Is that a risk in a state where you have to win Trump voters in order to win this race?

12:07Well, it's interesting. As I travel across the state, I'm talking to people who tell me I voted for President Trump three times, but what's happening today is not OK. And their frustration isn't what I mean, they're frustrated with the president. They're really frustrated with Roger Marshall. But I have people come on and say, I voted for him three times, but I think you're going to be a better senator for us. Manu? Yeah, I mean, look, it's a perfect storm that's happening in Kansas right now, which is why I state that Donald Trump has won three times, that there's no Democrat who's won in the early century, that there's actually a chance for a Democrat to win here.

12:36Obviously, the Iran war, fuel prices, diesel prices, the rural America, rural community in Kansas really, really getting hammered. And then there's a candidate quality issue that you absolutely cannot ignore. Adam Hamilton being the head of a megachurch, someone who has a huge following, the largest church in Kansas, someone who has a solid stump speech, charismatic politician. Roger Marshall struggled to raise money. He raised$100 ,000 in the last quarter. And he was almost 11 times less than Adam Hamilton in the last quarter, which is why the Republican rescue operation is underway. and they're doing everything they can to try to nationalize this race, make it about Democratic control of the United States Senate.

13:21And that may ultimately win. They may ultimately pull it off on the GOP side. But, boy, no one thought Kansas would be this much of a barn burner. Not at all. Speaking of no one thought, I'm going to speak to a candidate from Montana. He's running in the congressional race for the House. And he was just six months old, six months old, rather, the last time his state sent a Democrat to the House of Representatives. Can Sam Forstang change that? Plus, CNN's Phil Mattingly has a special report on Iowa farmers reeling from soaring prices and the potential political consequences of their struggles in a crucial Senate race.

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14:47Three, our agents request emergency response. Plans starting around a dollar a day. Right now, get 70 % off your new system with professional monitoring at simplisafe.com slash Spotify. Outdoor deterrence plans start at$49.99 a month. Visit simplisafe.com slash licenses for alarm license information. There aren't a lot of Democrats who can say they're endorsed by their state's former Republican governor slash former RNC chair, and by Bernie Sanders and AOC. That's the unlikely coalition behind Montana Democratic House candidate and wildfire smoke jumper Sam Forstag. And it might be one reason why a district President Trump carried by double digits is now rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

15:30Democratic House candidate Sam Forstag joins me now. Thank you so much for being here. So four years ago, your fellow Democrat, Senator John Tester, called the national Democratic brand toxic in your state of Montana. And now, as I mentioned, you're a Democrat in a neck and neck race for one of the two Montana house seats. Do you think that your party brand nationally has changed or is it just that voters are really disillusioned with the president or both? I think there's a lot of folks out here and across the country who are disillusioned with both political parties, frankly. And I think there's a lot of folks like my co-workers or some of my union members who certainly got a sour look on their face when I told them I'd be running.

16:14And they said, well, what party are you running with? And I told them I was a Democrat. And part of the project here is to win back a district like this, that we're in a position to win, pulling even to up three. And it's also to show people what a new kind of Democrat looks like that, you know, isn't just somebody who's for working people or for union members, but that we're actually a party of working people and union members and that we're still the party of the next generation who's going to fight for the future of this country and fight for the people who power is supposed to come from, which is the people themselves.

16:44So let's get specific on that, because you do talk a lot about this bipartisan identity, which you just explained there. You are endorsed by former Republican governor and RNC chair Mark Roscoe. You have an ad that says, Sam ain't your typical Democrat. Can you give me an example or two of where you differ from the National Democratic Party positions? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. I'll tell you, whether it is the fact that our right to bear arms is not only protecting the U.S. Constitution, but in Montana's Constitution even more strongly, or that things like forest management have been places where we have been falling further and further behind.

17:24And when the Democratic Party gets a chance to change something, we don't do it. These are places where we need folks who know what it's like on the ground, like myself, who spent the last eight years in forestry as a firefighter, as a smokejumper, parachuting into remote wildfires. And more broadly, it's simply prioritizing working people as a matter of policy and representation. I mean, today, the average congressperson is worth 15 times the average American. And the average age of a member of Congress is 56 or 58 years old. And somehow we've let the Democratic Party become the older of those two caucuses in Congress.

17:58We need representation for working people so that we're actually at the table when these decisions are being made and we can fight for ourselves. And that is a big part of how we're bringing together six Republican legislators, a former Republican governor, and folks like Senator Sanders and the Blue Dogs as well. Because you mentioned guns, I do want to ask you about that. you are a vocal defender of the Second Amendment. You live in Montana now, obviously. You are from Oregon, where last week a 16-year-old took a shotgun to an elementary school in the span of three minutes killed three children and a teacher.

18:34The gun, a Maverick 88 pump action 12-gauge shotgun, had been purchased by the shooter's mother. Is there any gun safety legislation you can think of that would have prevented this shooting that you would push if you get to Congress? Yeah, I think that we need to make investments in making sure that people have education about gun safety, that there are safe storage opportunities. And while we also need to make sure that parents are storing their guns safely and that kids aren't getting access to them if they aren't prepared to actually use them responsibly. And more broadly, I mean, when I was, well, much younger, it seemed like we still had a national conversation every time these tragedies unfolded.

19:19And the conversation would break down eventually to, well, one side saying we need investments in mental health and the other saying we need gun control. If we can get some agreement on actually rebuilding our mental health system in this country, well, absolutely. That seems like one of the most pressing issues we got. I mean, between fire seasons, I worked to build the Montana Coalition to Solve Homelessness out here. We got the least affordable housing market in the country, and homelessness has doubled or tripled in every city in the state in the last decade as a result. A third of those people are grappling with things like mental illness, behavioral health disorder that they have very little access to services for.

19:52And that is the result of decades of policy failures from both parties who have at one point or another had control in our federal government. Those are places we need to be investing to make sure that every person in this country can afford the basics and that our most vulnerable folks are not ending up on the streets or in positions where these tragedies unfold as a result. One of the issues that your Republican opponent, Aaron Flint, and other Republicans, including President Trump, they're hitting you on is your stance on trans issues. A lot of your fellow Democrats running in red states like you are or red areas, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Tallarico in Texas, for example, they've moderated on these issues.

20:33Both of them oppose trans athletes playing in women's sports, for example. You do not. Why? I mean, I'll tell you, what I oppose is the government sticking its nose in the private, personal decisions. And when my opponent or, frankly, folks across this country try to stir up fear and anger of one vulnerable community or another, they're doing that because they don't actually have any plan for making our lives better as working people. Because they are trying to distract from the fact that right now there's a very small slice of people getting incredibly rich off our backs, and they don't intend to work for us, they intend to work for them.

21:09So they find one group or another. Well, right now it's folks in the trans community that they can direct anger and outrage at. Well, those aren't the folks making us poor. Those aren't the folks picking our pockets. Well, we meant the first human trillionaire in this country. And I think, quite simply, government is not here to impose a worldview on us one way or the other. It should not be. Government should be here to improve our lives, to make sure that every person in this country can work one job and afford the basics. And I think that that tired old message is not working anymore. And we don't have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections.

21:43We just have to be real straightforward about what we're fighting for. Sam Forstag, thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate it. Good to talk to you. And we have invited Mr. Forstag's opponent, Aaron Flint, to join us on the show. And he is welcome anytime. Thanks again. Early voting data is flashing some big clues in the battlegrounds. next, the North Carolina numbers that the president is likely watching very closely as he heads there.

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22:56You can see the lines in McKinney, Texas, where polls opened yesterday, Harris County, which includes Houston, reported a record first day turnout. That's likely good news for Democrats. So far, more than 10 million people across the country have already cast their ballots. That is on track with the 2022 midterms. And there are a lot of tea leaves to try to read in the states we're tracking the most closely. Luckily, Tom Forman is here at the Magic Wall to help us read some of those tea leaves for us. Where are those 10 million votes coming from? Well, those 10 million votes are coming. If you look at those people in those lines, all the numbers say they're coming largely from Democrats.

23:38Republicans are showing up. But if you look at the dark areas here, that's where the Democrats are coming on the strongest. But let's look at those battleground numbers and forget for a moment whom you might want to win. Just look at the numbers. Blue versus red here. Across the board here, you see in these battlegrounds, it's better for blue. Maine, where Susan Collins is duking it out, that's very, very close there. If you look at the numbers, it's not much. Zero percent advantage, so there's a little advantage there. But she's down here by under two points. Nebraska, a reliably red state. Look at that.

24:08Three percent more Republicans turning up at this point compared to 2022. Excuse me, Democrats showing up at this point compared to 2023. Seven percent in North Carolina. Tough battle going on down there where they have an advantage. Same in Ohio here. The only one that's an outlier here right now is Pennsylvania. down by four points. But it's important to remember Pennsylvania doesn't have in-person early voting like you think of with voting machines where you go in and do it. It's basically all mail-in voting and Democratic operatives there have said a lot of their people were scared by the talk from the White House about using the Postal Service to control that.

24:44So they think that may have something to do with this, Dana. Some of these states show even more specifically who's voting early more compared to elections in the past what are you seeing there yeah absolutely let's look at north carolina because that's a big one tom tillis require retiring there so look at what's happening right now this is 2022 2024 2026. look what happened with the democrats here they are way up since 2024 and look at the republicans they are way down since 2024 and the independents have been kind of the same but they're also up so if you look at this already if you're the republicans you might be worried.

25:22But then you might say, well, let's look at the overall demographics of the state. 69 % white voters in 2026. Now that's down a little bit. But they can say, well, there are a lot of Republican voters in the white population there. And the president has done well with the black population in this country last time around. But there's been a lot of signs and polls of that eroding. So if you look at this and you say, where is the line in purely white voters of those who previously would have called themselves a Democrat or a Republican. Well, you can probably take a lot of this and say, this is probably Democrat over here.

25:59And now this section over here may be a lot more Democrat than it was in 2024. And now you look at the balance and you say, that's why the Republicans are nervous. That's why the president is out there in areas that theoretically he shouldn't have to go to, but they seem to think he needs to go to now. Tom, thank you so much for following all of that for us. Voters are voting. We're there. Coming up, Senate Democrats just launched their first campaign ad. Guess where? Mississippi. Democrats have a new campaign ad in Mississippi. But is their ambition outpacing political reality? That's after the break.

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27:31Democrats aren't just hoping for a blue wave in two weeks. They're spending like there might be a blue tsunami. Democrats' top Senate PAC just decided to put money into a very, very red state historically, and that is Mississippi. It's an unlikely bid to win a GOP-held seat, but they're certainly seeing something there. And a state President Trump won by 23 points. And it's not an outlier. It's the common margin for the GOP in the Magnolia State. So in a new analysis, the question begins to become, what are the Democrats doing? Have they inflated expectations for the midterms or not? And this is something that we have been looking at, not just in the House of Representatives, but in the Senate, because it is the Senate that is the most difficult hill to climb for Democrats right now.

28:31And I want to look at the map. And actually, before we do that, can we just, Tia, talk about Mississippi for a second as our southerner here? Yes. You know, I was actually just looking some of it up. I mean, you have to remember the Deep South, because of the vestiges of slavery, that they are very, the demographics of the Deep South states have huge black populations. Mississippi has the highest percentage of black population than any other state in America. And we know that most black people vote for Democrats. And so there are a lot of people who are looking at the demographics of Mississippi and saying it is winnable, particularly in this climate where even some, you know, independent voters, some soft right leaning voters are frustrated with the Trump administration and weighing their options.

29:23So we've heard Democrats tell the national party, don't count out Mississippi the same way they're saying don't count out Angie Nixon in Florida. They're saying, yes, these are what we would traditionally consider red states, but let's put a little money there and see what happens. This is a shift, Dana. This was not the plan just a couple of weeks ago. And because they've been focused on their core states, they need to win Ohio. They need to hold Michigan. They need to flip Maine. And they can see Alaska. as a clear opportunity. Kansas is more of an opportunity than Mississippi. And the Democratic money is not the same as the Republican outside money.

30:01So the fact that they're going in there, they're seeing some movement there. I mean,$1.2 million is an investment. It's not$10 million, but it is something. It's a signal. It's a signal that they think there's possibly a chance there. Yeah, but let's put up the map, the broader Senate map, to talk about the real sort of game here. You see the blue battleground states, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and I would argue Minnesota can be in there a little bit as well. And the key here for these Democrats is, of course, and we've been talking about this for a couple of weeks now, if not more, that Democrats are pushing into red territory.

30:45Mississippi, what just happened, the development just now, is the latest example. But in order to really make that mean something, taking over control of the Senate, they're going to have to hold all of those blue seats. Now, Georgia looks more comfortable. North Carolina also looks more comfortable. Michigan and New Hampshire, which we were talking about earlier in the program, those are open blue seats. and it's very hard, David, for Democrats to really take control of the Senate without keeping those. It's not impossible. It just makes it a whole lot harder because they would have to win. They need four, a net four.

31:26They would have to win a whole bunch of those. They would have to win five or six if they lose both of those blue seats. Right. Mission number one for Democrats was you've got to hold what you already have. That's why seeing Georgia in the Cook Political Report here as likely Dem, Remember, John Ossoff, the only Democrat senator running for re-election in a state, Donald Trump won. And that has already been basically taken off the map. I don't even know if it could truly be considered a battleground anymore, that race. But it has likely Dems. They did that there. You see that Cook has Minnesota-related as likely Dem, New Hampshire, lean Dem.

31:59So of the ones that the Dems currently hold, the one that's in the toss-up category, according to this, is Michigan. What is fascinating, though, when you look at this map also, Dana, is do you see any pink on there? Right. You see nothing from Cook Political Report right now among these states as leaning towards the GOP. What you see are deep red states, yellow, toss up here. Alaska, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio. Those are five deep red, double digit Trump states just two years ago that are not, they're not even just leaning GOP. They are true toss up states. That's what the environment has provided.

32:35Now, whether or not they actually go blue on election night is a different matter. Just getting them to toss-up status does not get you a Senate majority. Right, which is a lot further than anybody, maybe except Chuck Schumer, thought that they were going to get right now. And I'm not even sure he thought so. He said it publicly. Coming up, why the squeeze on farmers is turning Iowa into a midterm toss-up state. Everybody in agriculture is tired, would be the best way to put it. They're just tired. They feel very beat up right now.

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34:01We love our farmers. I've always been. That was President Trump in Kansas last night announcing a new$8 billion aid package for farmers. But the farming industry has not been feeling the love. Eye-watering diesel prices, soaring fertilizer costs, they're hurting America's farmers, turning once reliably red races into toss-ups in states like Kansas and also Iowa. CNN's Phil Mattingly spoke to independent farmers in Iowa for the latest installment of his series for CNN's All Access, Priced Out in America. Talk to enough farmers here in Iowa, and you start to recognize input costs are the most driving economic concern.

34:42Right behind me, diesel. Diesel prices have surged since the start of the Iran conflict. Machine repair and upkeep up more than 40 % just since 2020. Dip over here, and you see fertilizer, other chemicals always volatile, also surging in the in the wake of the start of the Iran conflict.

35:04The only option you have is keep doing the right thing, the best thing you can figure out, moving forward and dust yourself off and keep going. It's Cory Goodew's 20th harvest. On ground, his family has farmed for four generations. So yeah, this is my little cubby. The cost to grow an acre of corn in Iowa has more than doubled since 2006 to$920. And costs that climb in the good years, they don't come down in the bad ones. The replacement cost of that tractor has doubled. And instead of at 2.75 % interest, you're looking at 7.75 % interest. Running beneath it all, the paradox of Iowa farmland owners.

35:45Somebody not involved in the industry was like, these guys are so rich land-wise. I don't understand what the issues are. It's the difference between the current portion of your balance sheet and the long-term portion. You can have a lot of net worth, but no working capital. And farmers are particularly vulnerable to economic shocks. Since the Iran war began in late February, Iowa diesel is up more than 70 percent, from about$3.50 a gallon to over$6. So Corey opened his books. This is a heck of a look behind the curtain here, bosses. What many people don't realize, before farmers ever climb into a combine, they have to be accountants, commodities traders, and risk managers.

36:24I would say this time last year, we weren't feeling real great about life because we had to do a lot of cutting to get this thing to a positive number. Brutal amount of cutting. What was driving the cutting? Like why the need for cutting? The margins are just terrible, right? So walk through like what the red numbers are. Well, either I did it wrong or inflation got me. The buck has to stop at this desk. I just didn't think$6.550 diesel was in the cards. The inputs for diesel this year are punishing. We would have budgeted$35 ,000 and so up to this point we spent$23 ,000 and our last tank fill was probably, I mean you're gonna exceed this by probably $20 ,000.

37:09And by October with the crop already grown there's no easy way to earn back$20 ,000 with output. So farmers here they lean on each other relying on local cooperatives like this one. Farmers here are looking for power in numbers. Co-ops allow them to pool their grain and sell in bulk, giving them price leverage. But the laws of supply and demand, they're unforgiving. Corn was rallying until a recent USDA report identified a big jump in the amount of corn in storage. Corn futures fell 21 cents in a day. That's enough to blow a hole in an independent farmer's budget. We get a rally, get grain prices kind of starting to come back, where this$6 fuel maybe doesn't hurt quite as bad.

37:53And then all of a sudden, oh yeah, we forgot about this X billion amount of bushels that we just happened to find it laying in the back corner of the shed. So they tank us. We're going to have to sit on grain a lot longer now, of course, to go ahead and hope that prices kind of rebound. I obviously can't purchase ground. You know, there's ground is 12, 13, 14,$15 ,000 an acre now, and I just can't purchase it and pencil it out in my lifetime or even my son's lifetime.

38:24To understand how we got here, we drove north to Ames. David Peters grew up on a farm and has spent nearly two decades at Iowa State studying rural Iowa. Farmers are sort of forced on this treadmill. We call it the technology treadmill. When things happen unexpectedly, like with the fertilizer pricing increase and the fuel increases with the war in Iran, that threw everyone for a loop, and it was at the worst possible time that it could have happened. And all of that has an impact at the voting booth. Iowa went for Barack Obama by nine points in 2008. It then went for Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024.

39:02But this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates its Senate race and an open House seat as toss-ups. and two more Republican-held seats as leaning Democratic. It's a stereotype that everybody in the rural community, or every farmer, is full-on mega. At least in farming communities, it's very much a purple state. I think it's possible to hold two ideas at the same time. So my conversations with farmers and farm groups, they generally support the president and his bringing manufacturing back to the United States. why cause additional problems with irritating China, having trade wars with very onerous tariffs.

39:46We are an export-based economy, and so I think in a lot of Iowa, people feel why are we paying the price for these policies. Steve Kuyper's family has lived that dream for four generations, but he's worried that today's economic reality means his grandchildren won't have the chance to continue the family legacy. Is that your grandson? That's my grandson. Four going on 25. You're fourth generation, right? Yes, they're fifth generation. Last month, Kuyper's Association warned Iowa's entirely Republican congressional delegation that diesel was, quote, accelerating the economic and mental stress farmers are feeling.

40:23Everybody in agriculture is tired, would be the best way to put it. They're just tired. They feel very beat up right now. Two weeks later, the president temporarily allowed untaxed farm diesel onto the highways through the end of the year. A buddy of mine retired this year, and he's constantly kind of checking on us. He goes, man, I'm glad I'm retired. I mean, is there like a roadmap? Is there a path or not? I don't know. That's a good question. I wonder that a lot. So I don't know. Are there days you wake up and don't want to do it? No, not this job. Are you kidding me? Bust out the door every morning to do this job.

41:04That's about as good as it gets. What an amazing piece. We were talking, watching that, and you were saying, you know, they're not just farmers. They're basically like Goldman Sachs traders in the morning looking at what they need and what the market is showing, and it's obviously not good news. Yeah, it was so fascinating. You saw kind of Corey Goode to you really take us behind the scenes and look through his budget and how he was mapping it out on spreadsheets. And it's the idea of between how they operate with options, how they operate with their financial advisors, trying to hedge the risk in an extraordinarily volatile market.

41:35I think to step back, kind of what this piece showed me that really threads with all the pieces we've done for this series is it's not one thing or one bill or one payment that's driving why people feel so bad about the economy right now. It's the compounding nature of these structural issues. Farming has been dealing with this for years at this point in time. But what so many of the farmers I spoke to said is, look, if we know what the issues are, we can deal with it. They're in an industry that has a black swan on an annual basis. But given the scale of what they have to do, how many things they're responsible for, it's the uncertainty.

42:05And the inability to adjust to something like an Iran war or a conflict and what that does to prices that is really driving people that were already close to the brink, if not right at it, completely over. And I think that maps into much broader than just Iowa. And it really, really informs how you look at the political numbers in swing states around the country. I mean, just listening to him saying, look, we're just so beat up. They are. And you illustrated. And also how much they love their job. Love more than anything in the world. Thank you, Phil. Appreciate it. Thank you for joining Inside Politics.

42:34CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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