Trump Trying to Help Texas GOP Hold-Em 

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0:45Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for a 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only. Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. The Republican stronghold for nearly a century is now up for grabs as a new forecast shows the battle for the U.S. Senate shifting towards Democrats. I'm Dana Bash. Let's go behind the headlines and inside politics.

1:23There are 27 days until the election and we're tracking the races, candidates and stories that could ship the balance of power here in Washington and all across the country. Here's what we're looking at on the midterm radar. First up, President Trump is heading back to Texas today for the third time in less than a month. He'll rally in San Antonio with his Senate pick, Ken Paxton, who's locked in a razor tight race against Democrat James Tallarico in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly four decades. It's another sign Republicans are becoming increasingly worried about ruby-red states they usually just count on.

2:03But President Trump, he says he sees things differently. Here's what he said in Baltimore yesterday. By the way, I'm going around doing rallies. The Republican Party's starting to go right through the roof. Somebody said today, I wonder why. Well, I had to get out. I had to do. We had to explain what we're doing. There's never been a time like this in our country. Now to Maine, where tariffs and eating road salt made headlines in last night's Senate debate. Incumbent Republican Susan Collins tried to pitch herself to voters as someone who can bring money back to Maine and persuade President Trump to do right by Mainers.

2:43Democrat Troy Jackson argued that's not enough. Troy mocked it, but I was successful in getting concrete, pulp and road salt removed from the tariff list. I didn't mock the fact that she got road salt back. I mocked the fact that what about everything else? I mean, we can't eat road salt. And former President Barack Obama is unleashing a new wave of midterm endorsements starting with Deb Haaland, who's running for New Mexico governor against Republican Greg Hull. As governor, Deb will lower costs, strengthen education, build safer communities and protect your health care, because she knows what families are up against.

3:31Politico reports President Obama cut ads for two dozen Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor. And the main super PAC backing Senate Republicans is jumping into the South Carolina Senate race with its first attack out against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. It's part of the new five million dollar investment by this PAC in Republican Darlene Graham's campaign. Andrews supports letting biological men use the women's locker room and spending your tax dollars on sex change drugs and surgeries for minors. Andrews says she opposes trans women playing in women's sports and gender surgery for minors.

4:14I'm joined by a terrific group of reporters here. I mean, again, just the fact that there's any spending going on in a general election for a Republican in South Carolina is one of the it tells you everything you need to know moments. And there are a lot of those moments and dynamics going on across the country. Speaking of the Cook Political Report has new ratings out, which we teased and we'll show you what they are in Kansas, Kansas. They are moving it from lean GOP to toss up in Kansas. Kansas, New Hampshire, toss up to lean Democrat, and North Carolina, lean Democrat to likely Democrat. North Carolina, of course, a state which is red because Tom Tillis is currently the senator.

5:01He's retiring. Republicans last week already pulled their money from there. So now it's sort of become official. Let's just stick with Kansas for a second. Second, Kansas in 1932 was the last time it elected a Democratic senator. Three is the number of Democratic Kansas senators in history. And Kansas, of course, you know this off the top of your head, Ron Brownstein, became a state in 1861, which you know. So, you know, other than Susan Collins and me, every other Republican the Democrats are seriously targeting in this election is in a state that voted three times for President Trump, every one of them.

5:41Right now, in those 25 states that voted three times for President Trump, Democrats have zero of the 50 senators, which gives you a sense of how effective he has been over his career in consolidating the Republican grip on places that were red-leaning when he got on the scene. The difference is the polling that came out last week in the New York Times Siena or yesterday in YouGov. His approval is well under 50 in Kansas, Texas. The president. Trump's approval is under 50 in Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, who knows, South Carolina, possibly. And it is just worth noting that in his first term, in 2018 and 2020, Susan Collins was the only Republican Senate incumbent or challenger who won in a state where his approval was net negative.

6:26Now, these places, some of them may revert to their Republican DNA. I mean, these are places that still, they are suspicious of Democrats. They probably do not want a Democratic majority in the Senate, but it is the breadth of Trump's decline. Not only with the groups that moved toward him in 24, Latinos, young men, non-college, non-whites, but among his core groups, non-college whites and rural voters in a way we did not see in 2018 that is allowing Democrats to expand the map. And maybe they don't land all of these planes, but the fact that they're circling the airport, as you said, is pretty revealing.

7:01Yes, it is revealing. And yet I'm going to be, I'm not going to be Debbie Downer for Democrats, but maybe a little bit more, sort of pump the brakes a little bit right now, Isaac. And we're going to talk specifically about Maine in one second in that debate last night. But so many of these are razor thin in the Senate. And that means it could go either way. It means, as Ron was saying, that the sort of Republican DNA could, you know, come up and point the finger or pull the lever for the voters who just aren't really sure. Yeah. Like what you see out in the country, and as I've traveled around, is that people are not saying that they like Democrats, for sure.

7:49They are not even saying that they don't like Donald Trump. They are feeling abandoned by everybody. They feel like Donald Trump made a lot of promises to them about how things would get better, and none of them came true. They feel like the Democrats talk and talk, and none of that mattered for them either, and it didn't matter with Joe Biden. They don't like what happened with Joe Biden. They don't like what's going on with Donald Trump. They more than anything don't like that they're paying more at the grocery store, they're paying more at the pump, and they want to do something about it. And the question here is how much of that energy gets harnessed into Democratic campaigns?

8:20How much of it is people saying, I'm just not going to vote? And you see then the potential for base turnout for Trump to, or for Republicans who are still there and are hearing from Trump to maybe get there. But to Ron's point, even among Trump supporters, in a lot of these places, they are saying, I don't like this. I'm done. And it's not just about Trump. I mean, we all know when we say it and we'll say it till we're blue in the face, candidates matter. And going back to Kansas, which was kind of the headline in these new Cook ratings, going from lean GOP to toss up, the incumbent Republican is Roger Marshall.

8:58He went fishing with a reporter from the Washington Examiner thinking that, you know, he's fishing. It shows that he's a man of the people. But what he said while he's gone fishing is not necessarily something I think that any Republican wanted him to say. Let's listen. Do you have time to come fishing? I wish I could. You know, it's a Saturday morning and there's just not much else campaigning I could do. If there was a function or something, then we would do it. But, you know, we worked hard all week. We've been working 14 hours a day campaigning. We'll do an event tonight. So I call this debate prep.

9:43So I'm out here prepping for my debate. Well, in the background of that clip, what you hear is all of his aides screaming, please stop talking. Because that is the exact opposite message that I think his campaign wants to deliver. Look, time and time again, we've heard from folks that they don't believe that their lawmakers are working for them. The campaign is meant to, one, show their ideas, but also show how hard they want to go for their own voters. And a statement like that does not help. Obviously, candidate quality matters. Obviously, a candidate who is actually seeped in the moment that people feel so much pain at the pump, people feel so much pain at the groceries.

10:19Those type of things matter. That's where you see that kind of organic engagement and chemistry for other senators who are really trying to take the incumbents out on both sides. Right. That's what to Isaac's point. One thing that we focused on in the Washington Sun newsletter this morning is just how the map is expanding beyond what the Democrats thought that they would be. We're going to talk about Maine in a second, but obviously Maine was a main target for Democrats this election. And now we're not even talking about it that much, not just because of the Graham Plattner scandal went away, but because of the fact that there are just so many more possibilities across the map that Democrats did not expect to happen.

10:57And it's fueled by perhaps comments like that. And in Kansas, I think it also matters. Candidates matter and the Democrats. Thank you for saying that. And look, your stats are right about the last time that Kansas elected a Republican senator. But the last 16 years, there has been a Democratic governor of Kansas. There are Democrats there. There's a Democrat in Congress from Kansas. There is an ability to get Democrats to vote. And Adam Hamilton, the candidate there who is a minister and who has been the kind of Democrat that seems to be appealing to Kansans. And not just a minister. He's the pastor of a minister.

11:30Yes. I want to go back to Maine because I don't want to lose sight of this really interesting debate that happened last night. I want to play a couple of clips. First, this is a back and forth about the issue that Democrats think is the most harmful to Susan Collins, the fact that she supported Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. What I'm curious about is what will it take for you to admit that you were wrong, you know, especially whenever Kavanaugh went out and did what he did? I mean, and you don't regret that today. So what will it take for you to admit that you're ever wrong? I do not feel that he lied, but I think that he should not have said it was settled law, because to me that meant that it would not be overturned.

12:22Ron, your thoughts on that? And then I want to play a clip, which is kind of the tables were turned a little bit, but go ahead. Your thoughts on that? Look, Susan Collins has defied gravity in the past. The gravity is pulling her down even harder now. Trump is less popular than he was in 2020 when she won. It was 58 percent disapproval. Now it's usually over 60 percent in Maine. Brett Kavanaugh had not yet voted to overturn Roe v. Wade. She survived in 2020 because women over 45 voted for her 15 points ahead of Donald Trump. That kind of gap doesn't really exist anymore. Like in the 80s, you would see that kind of thing.

12:55And, you know, a Southern Democrat, John Brough might do that relative to Ronald Reagan. You don't see that anymore. But all of those things have changed. I thought even more effective than that, the rock salt comment, I think, crystallized. I mean, it really crystallized the choice for main voters. Did you just say rock salt crystallized? Rock salt crystallized. Rock man. You don't even know how good you are, Rock man. But like, OK, that's her argument is you need someone in the room who can nudge Donald Trump a little bit and sand down the edges of their work. I can get them to ease up a little bit on ICE enforcement.

13:28I can get money for the state versus you're giving us crumbs and allowing him to pursue policies that are fundamentally inimical to the state. And so he did. I thought he did much better. I don't know what you thought. I think much better than I thought. Yeah, and so on that, it is kind of an upside-down world in many ways, this race, one of which is that Susan Collins is for abortion rights, which is why the Kavanaugh thing is such a thing. And she pushed him, a Democrat, on his past views being anti-abortion. Let's watch. Senate President, I did fight like hell to protect abortion care. It is Troy who, until 2013, supported such extreme positions that he would not allow for exceptions for a woman to have an abortion, even if her life were at stake or in cases of rape and incest.

14:34What would you like to ask your opponent is an amazing question for debate. A. B. I mean, yes, it shows just how, you know, upside down this race is. But fundamentally, Susan Collins did vote for Brett Kavanaugh. Right. We talked to a couple of operatives after the debate last night who said that they believe that Troy Jackson did better than expected. But they aren't sure that this debate is going to move the needle all the way. They'll have more. But, you know, Susan Collins is kind of a unicorn in the state. And so is a performance like that actually going to shift people off basis and move her away from her?

15:04I think that that's kind of the question we ask after these debates. Yeah, and there will be more debates. Don't go anywhere because we have some terrific and important new reporting from Isaac. Why a black leader in Detroit says F. Abdul El-Sayed and how El-Sayed is responding. Plus, marking three years since the brutal Hamas terror attack on Israel, the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. I'm going to speak to a journalist in Jerusalem about how that day changed Israel and the world.

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16:42Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan, has a bold prediction. He says he thinks he will win that Senate contest by seven points. But as our great Isaac DeVere reports in his new story, that confidence has some Democrats a bit worried that he's underestimating what it takes to overcome deep divisions in the party left over from a brutal primary campaign. My panel is here, including the great Isaac, the aforementioned Isaac. First of all, just broadly set the scene for what you what you took away in this great article. I spent a couple days in Michigan last week and talked with both El-Sayed and with Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, and a lot of other people, black leaders, Jewish leaders, all sorts of other people, went to a bunch of events that both of them were doing.

17:32And you can see there that this race is still very much in play. And it is kind of what we were talking about in the last segment, that we're talking about Kansas being an up-for-grab Senate race at the same time we're talking about Michigan being an up-for-grab Senate race. They're on defense. It is pretty nuts. Now, El Sayed told me, as you say, that he does not feel any concern himself. He said to me, as we were finishing lunch on Friday, I'm going to win by seven points. And I said to him, you were predicting you were going to win by double digits the day of the primary. And he won by one digit, 1%.

18:05And he said, yeah, but I'm here. And there's something to that, right? And he has built up a lot of support from a lot of places. There are people I watch people run up to him wanting to take photos with him. People at events that he was at just cheering the moment they saw his face pop into the room. He has generated a lot of excitement. But there are a lot of people who feel like he hasn't taken them seriously or they're concerned seriously enough and he hasn't done some basic outreach. Yeah. So I'm going to get to that in one second. But just to kind of bolster what you're saying, if we can go back in time to starting with two years ago in 2024.

18:40Now, Donald Trump was on the ballot, which always helps Republicans. Alyssa Slotkin, the Democratic senator, she only won by three-tenths of a percentage point. It was a very, very close race in 2024. 2020, Gary Peters, the Democrat who's retiring, leaving this open Democratic seat, won by 1.7. And then back in 2018, Debbie Stebenow, this was a Democratic wave year, and she won not by seven percentage points, but by 6.5. And then just looking at some of the recent Michigan polling, Fox News, Marist, New York Times, Siena, all of these show no, except with Marist has Al-Sayed up a little bit more, but the other two show no clear leader.

19:22Now, back to what you were saying about some of the key constituencies in the Democratic electorate that Al-Sayed really needs. I'm going to read part of your story. One black leader in Detroit who asked not to be named told CNN about a conversation with El Syed, which left a feeling in his words of they believe they don't necessarily need to work as hard to get the black vote. He never received an invitation. He was promised by El Syed to join a roundtable with the candidate. Quote, I felt so bad. I texted him, the leader said of El Syed, but I didn't hear back. So F him. I should say that you also have a quote from your conversation with El-Sayed.

20:06Every community that I've met with, I've said, leading for and with your community is a concern and a key consideration with me. I could spend all my time with any one community and it probably wouldn't be enough. And that's perfectly fair. People deserve a U.S. senator who's going to show up and listen. But I've showed up and listened. Yeah, and I met with two rabbis who are part of a group that is leading a pushback to El Seyed's candidacy, and one of them is a rabbi who pointed out to him, he called himself an activist rabbi, he said he's demonstrated on the border, he's met with Palestinians in the West Bank, and he said he just feels very uncomfortable about where El Seyed, not importantly for those rabbis and for others.

20:45It's even past the issue of Israel at this point, but really about Jewish safety. And the synagogue where I met with those rabbis is 10 miles down the road from the synagogue that was attacked in March and where at first El-Sayed had sort of written off that attack as hurt people, hurt people. Yeah. I mean, as you said, the Jewish vote is big. The black vote, perhaps just percentage wise, is even bigger. Much bigger. He had Kamala Harris there. He's going to have Barack Obama there. And then you're hearing what you're hearing from that black leader. Look, I was in Michigan the weekend before the primary, and I was in a black church in Detroit where they were having a meeting of the statewide Al Sharpton's National Action Network.

21:21And the minister excoriated El Sayed, said he was more concerned about Gaza than about Detroit, but also made a point that raises this beyond an individual candidate. He talked basically about the way Arab American shopkeepers treat black patrons, right? So there are issues that go beyond. I will, however, point out that Mike Rogers today is cutting an ad denouncing Trump's trade war and has also broke with him on Iran. El-Sayed may well underperform Jocelyn Benson by a lot. Yeah. But Donald Trump is more— Jocelyn Benson running for governor. By the way, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Troy Jackson in Maine, the three farthest left Senate candidates may all underperform more centrist gubernatorial candidates in the same state.

22:04But to the point, Mike Rogers is not doing that because he wants to. He's doing that because he has to. And he has to because Donald Trump is more unpopular in Michigan today than he was in 2018 when Debbie Stavinaugh won by six and a half. And that is a big undertow, even with all these problems. I mean, just on the black vote, I think that we have the same question about Republicans. They may be frustrated right now. They may be telling the pollsters that call their cell phones that they're upset that they don't want to vote for Trump today. Who knows what happens in November 3rd? The same thing could be said of black voters when it comes to the Democratic Party.

22:32I've talked to a lot of black operatives on both sides who are seeing this sense of a growing restlessness among a sector of black voters who actually, instead of identifying with the Democratic Party, feel a bit more politically homeless. Right. Ideologically not based in either party right now. But the question is, is whether we're not voters in that state where a Democrat does need a majority of black voters to win in that state, whether or not on November 2nd or on November 3rd, they say it's better to sit at home or it's better to grit our teeth and vote for El Saeed, even though El Saeed, even though he hasn't necessarily paid us the most attention or necessarily won our vote through his arguments.

23:12I don't want to end this conversation without getting to a really good nugget of news, interesting nugget of news that you got. El-Sayed recently called Piker and warned his rhetoric was costing El-Sayed votes, asking him to stop. That's according to two people. You spoke with Isaac, who told you about the conversation. Did he also say maybe it's because I invited Hassan Piker during the primary that anybody even cares about what Piker says? He campaigned a lot with Piker, including the day before the primary in August. I was at an event with El-Sayed, and he arrived to the event with Hassan Piker.

23:52So the distancing from him now is definitely a post-primary shift here. I do think, though, the other important thing to point out is I talked to Dana Nessel on Monday night. She's the attorney general. She's Jewish. She has been very vocal about her frustrations with El-Sayed and didn't go to the August Democratic Convention in Michigan because she said she didn't feel safe. But she has now said that she will be supporting El-Sayed. She told me that she was so worried about what the response of that would generate that she didn't even go to Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur services this year at home.

24:24And I said to her, but you're going to vote for her. What do you say to people? And she said, I said, this is not the choice we wanted, but it's a choice we have. And she said, there are so many issues on the line beyond this that she said, I feel unsafe as a human. I feel unsafe as an American. And I have to factor that in and live with this decision. And we're going to go to break. But Rogers, the Republican candidate for Senate, told you that he could get 50 percent of the Jewish vote. That was his prediction. Which is. Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of predictions in that in that story that you have.

24:53Thank you. Terrific reporting. Next, President Trump just put a post on his social media platform, distancing himself from the two men in charge of his midterm strategy, one that helped him get elected twice. Stay with us.

25:47Okay, this is one of those moments that even in today's world, you're going to have to just sit down and watch. because in the last few minutes, President Trump posted a pretty wild Truth Social post saying he's open to firing two of his closest political advisors, James Blair and Chris LaSavita. Now, this comes after the New York Times just reported in the last 12 hours or so that Blair and LaSavita were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars through a D.C. law firm to help a pro-Russian government party in a small self-governing territory inside Bosnia and Herzogovina. Now, here's what the president wrote on Truth Social.

26:26Chris Lasavita and James Blair are outside consultants. They do not work for me, other than as outside consultants. They most likely have numerous clients, but for that, you would have to ask them. They are allowed to do work for others, just like all consultants in Washington, D.C. I do not have any idea who else they work for, but will, on reflection, ask them, and if there's a conflict, I will terminate them immediately. Now, James Blair has been a guest on this show. He is the president's former deputy chief of staff. And Chris LaCivita was, of course, Donald Trump's 2024 campaign manager.

27:04Elena Treen joins me now. Elena, Blair is literally running MAGA Inc. right now. But if you take a step back and talk about why the president decided to give this story more life. I know that there are probably lots of reasons and this just happened. But what are you hearing from your sources inside MAGA World? Yeah, this is astonishing because and I think for our viewers, you know, Chris Lasavita and James Weyer, These are huge names in Republican politics, particularly in an era that has been ruled by Donald Trump. And they are still, the president highlights here, he tries to point out that they are outside consultants to him.

27:47They do work for the president and they are very close. They are very much considered part of his inner circle. Very close with Susie Wiles, of course. Lasavita and Wiles both were co-campaign managers. Blair, very close with them. And James Blair really is in charge of the president's entire political operation, even though it's being run on the outside of the White House. So keep that all in mind. And that's why, one, this New York Times story, when I read it this morning about this trip that they took and getting paid, as you mentioned, hundreds of thousands of dollars on behalf of a pro-Russian government, to help a pro-Russian government, I should say, was astonishing.

28:21But then the president to amplify it even more. And I think for your question about why is the president doing this, one, I think it's clear, you know, he's someone who never really likes these kinds of things, people making money potentially using his name to do so. I think that's what was happening here when you read through this New York Times reporting. So that's one part of this. But also I think the fact that he is pointing out that he would perhaps terminate them if he believes that any of their outside work separate of him poses a conflict of interest, that is a huge deal for people who have been loyal to him from the beginning and comes, of course, this comes less than 30 days away from the midterm elections.

28:59A lot of alarm bells, of course, going off across the country for Republicans in some of these very vulnerable districts and these tight races. And so I think that plays into this as well. Now, look, this was just moments ago that the president posted this. I have a lot more reporting. I need to be show some humility here that I have a lot more reporting to do, Dana. But when you just know how close these men are to the president, how much work they have done and how much they are still doing to get Republicans across the country elected. I mean, it goes beyond the president himself. Just pretty remarkable words from the president here, Dana.

29:30Yeah, absolutely. Alana, thank you so much for that. And real quick, Jasmine, you cover the president and his political team. I think the word amplifying that she just used is really key. The other is, and we were talking about this in the break as we were sort of taking in this post, that the president really doesn't like when people who are working for him are also making money elsewhere. and it's not as if there aren't conflicts of interest everywhere on so many different levels. It's deep and it's wide, okay? But this one struck a nerve. Yeah, these are kind of like the two areas that could probably offend the president the most.

30:12I was talking to a GOP operative last night in MAGA World who was really incensed about the story itself. One, because of the question of, are these people who are supposed to be putting Republicans back in office, are they actually working to do so? And then, too, obviously, there's been a huge conversation on the MAGA right about advisors working for foreign governments and should those advisors be doing so if they are MAGA first. So last night this person was upset. Today I get a text saying, whew, with seven W's, just showing just how serious and how notable this message is. Again, just to amplify exactly what Elena said, these are two people who are constantly on Air Force One when the president is going across the country, traveling for the midterm elections, constantly going around, giving the president what he should be saying, saying that he has the best political acumen of the party.

31:03And so this is a huge, huge thing that the president decided to do. And I think it's probably that he's been hearing a lot from people complaining also about it. All right, everybody stand by up next. President Trump is going to head to Texas for a third time campaigning in a district he won by more than 10 percentage points only two years ago. We'll tell you why he's going after a break.

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32:11Remarkable. He squints, reads it again, smiles, and says, Dang, that's a good offer. The highest form of approval. No haggling. No hassle. No one called him boss. He's still on the couch. Astonishing. Sell your car today on Carvana.com. Pickup fees may apply. Today marks three years since the October 7th terror attacks, the deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust.

32:47Across Israel, there was a moment of silence for the 1 ,200 innocent people murdered by Hamas terrorists. There were also memorials by the site of the Nova Music Festival, where countless young people who came to dance were raped and brutally assaulted. Hamas took 251 hostages to Gaza that day, where they were tortured and starved, and the depravity continued. For the first time since October 7th, Israel honors the solemn anniversary with every hostage home. I want to bring in Avi Meir, who is the founder of the Jerusalem Journal and former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post. Thank you so much for being here, Avi.

33:26The fact that this is a painful day, but it is the first time, as I mentioned, that all of the hostages are home, dead or alive. What is that like in Israel now? Well, Dana, it's an extremely solemn day here. I think the closest analogy that I can imagine would be the years after the September 11th attacks, how we commemorated them, feeling that it was so raw. This is something, of course, that has affected every Israeli. You mentioned that there were national ceremonies and events taking place across the country, but it's also something that Israelis feel very viscerally. Just to share a brief anecdote, I was at my Jerusalem barbershop earlier today getting a haircut, and I was chatting with my barber, as one does, and somehow October 7th came up, I think somewhat obviously, and this is someone who I have seen dozens of times since October the 7th, and he mentioned, just parenthetically, that his daughter was at the Nova Festival, that music festival that was attacked by Hamas in which more than 300 people were killed.

34:32And I sort of paused for a second. I said, wait, wait, what? And he said, yeah, no, she was there. She wasn't feeling well, so she left a bit. She and her friend were saved because she had a stomachache. But every Israeli has a story like that, a story of rescue, but unfortunately, many stories of loss and sadness as well. Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right. That does seem as though it would feel like 9-11. The difference is Israel is such a small country that people either know somebody or know somebody or know somebody. I mean, there's almost no degree of separation. Speaking of, Rubi Khan, his son, Itai, he was killed by Hamas on October 7th, but his body wasn't returned for 760 days.

35:16Ruby, in a piece for USA Today, says his family could finally mark October 7th at Itai's grave. And here's what he wrote in part. I hope that one day we can tell him his country remembered, demanded answers, made his killers, patrons pay, and that his sacrifice will not be in vain, but helped build a Middle East where no parent waits more than two years to bury a child. There's so much in there. But what does the sentiment, the pain, but also his hope, say about the current dynamic inside Israel right now? I think there are many Israelis who feel that there's this great sense of fiction, that the loss of October 7th, the hundreds of soldiers who have been killed since, that that should not be in vain, and that we should do whatever we can to forge a country that reflects our highest values and that we will have the opportunity to do exactly that in just a few weeks' time when Israel heads to the polls.

36:15Well, OK, so let me ask you about that. Three weeks away from the first election since October the 7th, three years ago. And inevitably will be a referendum on that day and on the leadership at that time, which is still, for the most part, the same leadership now. It will be a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, I assume. Is there any other way to look at it? That is pretty much the framework for not only this election, but really all recent elections here in Israel. More than 60 percent of Israelis say that the events of October 7th will be top of mind as they go to the polls, as they pull the lever or put the little note into the ballot box.

36:57And of course, the questions of responsibility, of accountability, of how the horrors of October 7th could possibly have happened are going to be very much on the minds of many Israelis as they make that decision. Yeah, because there hasn't been a report. There hasn't been, I mean, there have been some variations of reports, but you mentioned the word accountability. We haven't seen that. The prime minister has kicked the can down the road saying for a long time while the country is still at war? Well, one of the debates that have sort of been racking Israeli society in recent months has been the question of whether or not there should be a state commission of inquiry.

37:37The current coalition is insisting that it be a government-appointed commission. And of course, many in the opposition say that that would be a toothless and rather ineffective way of investigating what actually took place. And so that is one of the questions I think many Israelis will be thinking about as they head to the polls. And in fact, the leaders of the opposition have said very openly that on day one in office, they will establish exactly that commission to get to the bottom of what happened on October 7th and in short can never happen again. Yeah. And I hope you do come back as we get closer to the election, because it is very, very complicated, given the fact that it is parliamentary and, you know, the leading party doesn't necessarily have to win the most votes.

38:17It's all about coalitions and so forth. So as we get closer, you'll come back and help explain it. Thank you so much for being here, Avi. Appreciate it. We'll be right back. Clothes shopping really isn't my thing, but I still want to look sharp and feel confident. That's why I use Stitch Fix, the OG personal styling service. No more scrolling through websites or wasting my day at the store. My stylist sends pieces picked just for me straight to my door. Free shipping, free returns, no subscription required. Get started today at StitchFix.com. That's StitchFix.com.

39:00In most election years, a lone campaign visit from a Republican president to the Lone Star State would be notable. In a year where Texas Republicans redrew the map to favor Republicans, a third visit shows a Texas-sized GOP worry. In just a few hours, the president will head to San Antonio, where he will talk to people there who are voting. And it's a district where he won by 10 percentage points only two years ago. And it now is apparently very much in play. President Trump will campaign alongside Air Force veteran Carlos de la Cruz, who's in a tight race with Democratic Bexar County Sheriff's Deputy Johnny Garcia.

39:44This is for Texas' 35th District. I don't even know where to start with this. Jasmine, I'm going to start with you. Never mind the fact that Paxton is going to be there, of course. Greg Abbott has other plans. So that all speaks to kind of what's brewing or not brewing for Republicans right now in Texas? Right, every Republican across the map that isn't winning their state by a lot has to decide whether or not the president is a net positive and a net negative. And then they're gonna be asked by journalists about whether or not they're gonna appear with Trump as a positive or a negative. I think you've seen Greg Abbott make that decision.

40:24Listen, I think it reinforces this idea that Republicans are concerned about Texas, right? You see them dumping a ton of money in Texas. The president said at that Dallas midterm convention that he's going to be in Texas maybe two or three times. He's gone to Texas two or three times in the last two weeks. We still have about three more weeks in this election. Who knows how many more times he's going to go? And so I think you're trying to see the president really drag along Paxton across that finish line and whoever else is lingering on the sides. But not everybody in Texas is going to be benefited by the president.

40:55And I think that Republicans are starting to see that. I want to show you on everybody, Ron, the Texas Tribune. They have a map where they have the most competitive races, and they rank it as warm and hot. Yeah. Okay, so warm, and you see two of the races, Texas 9 and 23. Hot, meaning super competitive, four of them. Again, I just want to remind people, this is the state that started the mid-decade redistricting in order to try to avoid all of that from happening, making it a shoe-in for Republicans. So many things. the redistricting in Texas was based on the assumption that the 24 Trump performance among Latinos was a new baseline.

41:36And it's not. It's reverting back to something like, you know, Latinos in Texas still vote more Republican than elsewhere. But it's going to be something like 60-40. Tallarico is pulling a little bit above 60. And so all of those districts are at risk. Gas and groceries did what January 6th could not. It's fractured the Republican coalition. And, you know, what you're seeing in tech, the reason why a state like Texas is in play and Kansas is in play, Ohio, Iowa, is that not only is Trump losing ground among the groups that move toward him in 24, Latinos, young men, etc., but the rot is spreading into blue collar and rural communities.

42:16That Quinnipiac poll that just came out in Pennsylvania, Republicans are up plus 16 among non-college whites. That sounds great. It was, you know, it was over 20 in 2018. That is what broadens the map. And many of those people may not in the end vote for Democrats, but many of them just simply may not vote. And that's going to make it very tough for Ken Paxton to overcome this lead. But there's also what's going on. I was in Texas a couple weeks ago doing reporting, and Tallarico is running strong, it's true. But there are more Texas Democrats running for statehouse seats than have ever been for the last 50 years.

42:46And also importantly, Gina Hinojosa is running for governor, is Democrat. She is from the Rio Grande Valley. She always says, I'm not going to be the first Latina governor. I'd be the first governor from the Rio Grande Valley. But that is that area of the map that you were just showing. And it's pulling Latinos all over the state as another thing that could happen here. For that story, I talked to Beto Roerke, who, of course, fell far short of where he wanted to be in 2018. And he said some of these people are going to lose, but some of them are going to win when they all push forward here. as Democrats actually seem to have kind of haphazardly pulled their act together to take advantage of what might be a perfect storm.

43:23Thank you so much. One and all, appreciate it. Thank you for joining Inside Politics. CNN News Central starts after a quick break.

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