A dangerous nuclear moment

0:00Here's how President John F. Kennedy described the risk of nuclear war at the United Nations in 1961. Every man, woman, and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness. Kennedy would kickstart a decades-long effort to reduce that risk. If the world was dangling by a thread, he began building what would eventually become a web of painstakingly negotiated treaties to stabilize global nuclear arsenals. The presidents who followed forged new agreements. From Nixon. This joint statement that has been issued today may well be remembered as the beginning of a new era.

0:52To Reagan. It was a simple proposal. One might say disarmingly simple. And to Obama. And this ceremony is a testament to the truth that old adversaries can forge new partnerships. Today, that web is in tatters. Last week, the last bilateral nuclear treaty between Russia and the United States expired. Meanwhile, President Trump is shaking up the nuclear status quo in other ways. The U.S. has been pushing Europe to step up its own defense. Last March, Trump said he would not defend NATO countries that don't spend enough. I think it's common sense, right? If they don't pay, I'm not going to defend them.

1:32No, I'm not going to defend them. Now Europe has clearly taken notice. And in a speech Friday at the Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that in an era of great powers, Europe's freedom is no longer a given.

1:49He said that he was in talks with the president of France about a European nuclear deterrent. Consider this. The world is increasingly unstable. Could that drive more countries towards nuclear arms?

2:08From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang.

2:19It's Consider This from NPR. So my co-host Mary Louise Kelly has been in Munich this week, reporting from that same conference where the German chancellor gave that speech that we just mentioned. And one of the many big issues that Mary Louise is covering is what to make of this moment in nuclear history. I'll let her pick up the story from here. When I was a kid, back in the 80s, my school held emergency drills, fire drills, tornado drills, nuclear drills. The plan for the latter was we were supposed to crouch under our classroom desks, arms crossed over our heads for protection. With the benefit of hindsight, hiding under our desks probably would not have protected us much from an incoming nuclear warhead.

3:02Well, fast forward four decades, we seem to be in a new nuclear era. Cold War is over, but the questions, how do we secure the nukes, whether to build more nukes, they're as live as ever. And those questions are on the minds of national security leaders gathering here in Munich. Among them, Christine Wormuth, former Army Secretary, now President and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. That's a nonpartisan group dedicated to reducing the nuclear threat. Secretary Wormuth, great to see you. Welcome to Munich. Thank you. It's great to be here. And I did those drills under my desk as well. Yeah, probably would not have done us much good.

3:41Definitely would not have helped us. So to take stock of where we are this moment, the last nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia just expired. Late last month, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, their doomsday clock was set to 85 seconds to midnight. the closest it has ever been in nearly eight decades of doing it. How dangerous is the current moment? The current moment is quite dangerous. We are now, without any kind of a treaty, putting limits on strategic nuclear weapons for the first time since 1972. China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal. They are expected to have 1 ,000 nuclear weapons by 2030.

4:26So it's a pretty dangerous time, I think. The treaty that just expired, New START, it was known as, the Russians actually offered to extend it. Trump administration said, no, we want something better. And so it expired. Now we have nothing. Good idea? Missed opportunity? What do you think? Well, I think it was a bit of a missed opportunity, but I'm heartened because, as I understand it, we were in Abu Dhabi with the Russians just recently talking to them about perhaps some sort of continued limits on our strategic nuke. So I hope that those talks continue because I think it would be very important to try to keep some limits at least in place, even if it's not through a formal treaty.

5:08But is any treaty that could be any kind of agreement toothless if China isn't in it? No, it's not toothless. I think the idea of a three-way treaty is a bridge too far. I think, frankly, the Chinese want to establish parity with Russia and the United States. But I think the possibility of an agreement with each country separately is something to potentially pursue. What about the Europeans? Since we're standing here in Munich, in Germany, the buzz in Europe is all about figuring out how to navigate a world where they may not be able to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Can Europe still rely on the U.S.

5:47nuclear umbrella? I think it's very important that the administration communicate clearly to the Europeans that they can rely on our nuclear umbrella. Because the last thing we need is what is called friendly proliferation. The last thing we want to see is a country like Poland or even Germany thinking about getting its own nuclear weapons. That's not going to be in the interests of the United States. What about where does France fit in? Currently, it sounds like you hope for forever, that is the only country on the European continent with nuclear weapons. Well, the French and the UK nuclear weapons are an important part of the overall umbrella for Europe.

6:24So, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if France and Britain are having conversations about what that responsibility looks like if the United States is moving to a more transactional posture relative to Europe. Hmm. So bottom line, to bring us back to where we started, are we looking at a future where school kids are going to be hiding under their desks again for nuclear drills? And if not literally, I guess, I mean, are we going to be raising children in a generation that feels the peril, that feels the world is getting less safe because of nuclear weapons than more? Well, I hope we're not going to be going back to the days of drills underneath desks.

7:09But I do think we're in a perilous new era where we could see an arms race. And when you say we may be in a moment of a new nuclear arms race, why? I mean, is that dictated by the fact that countries feel increasingly insecure and like the world is shifting around them? Yes, I think countries feel more insecure. I think Russia is clearly a revisionist power. You know, we see what they've done in Ukraine. And I think Putin wants to continue to pursue his war in Ukraine. And again, the massive Chinese buildup, the Chinese have not been very transparent about their intentions. So it does feel like we're in a more dangerous, less secure world.

7:51That was Christine Wormuth, former Army Secretary, President and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative. She was speaking to my co-host, Mary Louise Kelly, at the Munich Security Conference. This episode was produced by Karen Zamora and Connor Donovan, with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. It was edited by Christopher Intagliata, Brett Neely, and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And before we go, a quick thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the show. Your contribution makes it possible for NPR journalists all around the world to do their jobs. Supporters also get bonus episodes and can hear every episode without messages from sponsors.

8:31Learn more at plus.npr.org. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Consider This sponsor-free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get Consider This Plus at plus.npr.org. That's plus.npr.org.