Amid fresh strikes, what does diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran entail?

0:00It's Consider This, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, a peace deal in jeopardy. On Monday, while trying to negotiate an end to the war, the United States launched new attacks in, quote, self-defense in southern Iran. That is according to U.S. Central Command. The targets, missile launch sites and Iranian boats trying to lay mines near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says the U.S. strikes violated the ceasefire currently in place and in retaliation shot down a U.S. drone overnight. What's happening there is in lawful, it's illegal, it's unsustainable to the world, is unacceptable.

0:34That's Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to reporters Tuesday in India. It's either going to be a good deal or there isn't going to be one. Consider this. This new round of attacks comes as both sides ramp up talks about ending the war. But is there still a path forward with Iran?

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2:31It's Consider This from NPR. Despite the violence, neither Iran nor the United States appear to be pulling back on diplomatic efforts to reach an interim deal to end the almost three month war that has brought shipping to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz and affected the global economy. To tell us more, I'm joined by NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez and NPR's correspondent in Dubai, Aya Batrawi. Hey to both of you. Hi. Hey, Scott. Franco, let me start with you. President Trump announced a deal was in the final stages and then a day later said there was no rush. What do you make of yet again another round of whiplash like this?

3:07Yeah, Trump kicked off the weekend kind of hailing a groundbreaking deal that would be announced shortly. And, you know, of course, Trump's been under a lot of pressure to reach a deal as soon as possible. Polls show that the war is unpopular. And he's also making Republicans worry about their chances in this fall's midterm elections. Now, over the weekend, Trump didn't offer details about what that deal would be other than to say that the Strait of Hormuz would be open. But what was really fascinating is that one of his biggest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, went public with his opposition.

3:40basically blasting a potential deal that he argued would allow ron to be a dominant force in the region and even questioned whether the war would have been worth it he of course scott was not the only republican trump's former secretary of state mike pompeo in the from the first administration said the deal was quote not remotely america first adding that it looked like it was being negotiated by officials from the obama administration that received a rebuke from Trump officials. And yet by Sunday, Trump was taking or talking a very different tune, saying that while negotiations were ongoing, that, as you noted, there was no rush.

4:18And then we had the strikes from yesterday, which the Trump administration called defensive. So that's the U.S. side of things. Aya, what is Iran saying about a possible deal and these attacks? So Iran's foreign ministry says this is yet another violation of the ceasefire. And that, quote, once again, this exposes the malice and bad faith of the U.S. toward Iran. And they note that this happened alongside efforts at diplomacy. And Tehran says this is part of the criminal nature of the U.S. toward Iran. Also, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force said they stand ready to respond upon the directive of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mushtab HaKhamenei, who has not been seen or heard from since his father, the former Supreme Leader, his mother, wife and child, were killed on the first day of this war in Israeli airstrikes.

5:04But Khamenei did release a written message today. He said that countries in the region will no longer be shields for American military bases. Franco, let's go back to the U.S. side. Trump seemed to be taking, you know, almost a victory lap in that initial announcement. But is it fair to say this is becoming a trend here, announcing an imminent deal, then pulling back? I mean, I would say it was. I mean, I took a quick look this morning. And while I'd say this was the most emphatic that he's been about an upcoming deal. I mean, he has publicly suggested that a deal was near more than a half dozen times, dating back all the way to late March when he said Iran wants to make a deal.

5:42I mean, he's repeated several different variations that a deal is closed, that an agreement was largely negotiated, that a framework exists, and that the agreement would be finalized shortly. But then, of course, it doesn't happen. And the reality is that while the president has repeatedly kind of projected this optimism. There is yet to be anything concrete or yet to be anything finalized. And amid all this, Iran's position on these talks has been pretty tough. Aya, tell us what the specific demands are. Right. I mean, these talks are just a kickstarter for there to be direct talks again between the U.S.

6:17and Iran. So this is only an interim deal. But now Iran has leverage they didn't have before this war, and that's their control over the Strait of Hormuz. And this hardened regime does not trust the Trump administration. Trump withdrew the U.S. from Iran's nuclear deal with the U.S. in his first term, and then wars were launched on Iran during the last two rounds of nuclear talks in June and then in February. And now Iran is demanding what they call confidence-building measures due to that distrust, Scott. What they want is they want the U.S. to unfreeze their money that is locked in accounts in Qatar.

6:47And this was the focus of talks yesterday in Qatar by a senior Iranian delegation that included the head of Iran's negotiation team and the head of Iran's central bank. Iranian state media say Iran wants$12 billion to be accessible at the start of any interim deal and that the other half, the remaining$12 billion, be transferred during the next 60 days of any ceasefire extension. And they said no agreement is possible until the agreed amount is deposited because of past breaches of trust. Another demand, Scott, is that Iran wants an end to Israel's war in Lebanon, where Israeli troops occupy a huge part of the South and are fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah.

7:22But Israel wants to continue that war, which has killed more than 3 ,000 Lebanese, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Trump assured him Israel can continue to carry out operations in Lebanon, which he described as self-defense. Israeli officials also tell NPR Netanyahu does not want to end the war in Iran either. And Franco, Israel is opposed to Trump's efforts to try to make a deal with Iran. So Trump is now trying to include as part of that deal an expansion of diplomatic ties with Israel and other countries in the Middle East, how would that complicate things?

7:54I mean, look, the Abraham Accords are seen by Iran as anti-Iran. And it was part of the initial announcement that Trump thanked all the intermediaries like Pakistan, like Saudi Arabia, who assisted with the negotiations. But Trump also emphasized that their efforts would go further by joining the Abraham Accords, you know, the regional agreement that seeks to normalize relations with Israel. Now, this is not necessarily new. Trump has previously said that any agreement should include a requirement that the countries join the accords. But this really looks to be an effort to entice Israel to accept the deal.

8:29And Netanyahu has also faced criticism over the deal. How have countries in the region responded to all of this? I mean, we're talking about countries like Turkey and Pakistan as well. These are heavyweights that can't be pushed into a decision like this that is rejected by their populations just because Trump says so. And while there has been some commentary, we haven't seen any official statements in response to this, which suggests that this isn't something being given serious attention. There was a report in a Saudi-owned Al-Arabaya quoting an unnamed Saudi official who simply repeated Saudi Arabia's long-stated position that any deal with Israel is contingent on there being a pathway toward a Palestinian state.

9:05But that is something Israeli leaders say will not happen. That is NPR's Eyo Batrahi and Franco Ordonez. Thanks to both of you. Thank you, Scott. Thanks a lot. This episode was produced by Alejandra Marquez-Hanza and Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. It was edited by James Heider, Rebecca Metzler, and Timbeet Ermius. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan.

9:30It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.