Can Trump get Putin to make a deal?

0:00American presidents have been trying to manage Russian President Vladimir Putin since the beginning of this century. There was George W. Bush, who met with Putin 28 times. I was able to get a sense of his soul. He's a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country. And I appreciated so very much the frank dialogue. Barack Obama, he and Putin sat down together nine times. By working together, we not only increase security and prosperity for the Russian and American people, but also help lead the world to a better place. Joe Biden met with Putin only once. The bottom line is I told President Putin that we need to have some basic rules of the road that we can all abide by.

0:47Past American presidents had hoped to strike deals and push Russia towards a more democratic society. Instead, Russia started wars and tried to expand its borders. The Russian president says a military operation is now underway in eastern Ukraine. Tonight, his troops are holding firm in a corner of Ukraine known as Crimea. The Russia-Georgia war, which erupted as a battle for a disputed breakaway region, has fast spilled over into surrounding areas. Soon, President Trump heads here to Alaska for his seventh meeting with Putin. And like his predecessors, he's trying to get something out of Putin.

1:26This time, he's trying to finally end the war with Ukraine. I think he wants to get it done. I really feel he wanted the whole thing. I think if it weren't me, if it was somebody else, he would be not talking to anybody. Consider this. President Trump is trying to leverage his personal relationship with Putin to strike a peace deal. Will he be able to pull it off?

1:52From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

2:02It's Consider This from NPR. When you fly to Anchorage, as we just have, to cover the Trump-Putin summit, you skim low across water and land in a city that is roughly the same distance from Moscow and Washington, D.C., some 4 ,000 miles and change from each capital. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be landing to discuss a possible end to Russia's war in Ukraine. A war that, at the moment, is not letting up. In fact, it has seen an increase in drone warfare. NPR is among the few news organizations that still has reporters in both Russia and Ukraine, and we've got them both on the line now to talk through where the war stands as this summit is about to get underway.

2:46And here's Charles Maines in Moscow and Greg Meirey in Kiev. Hi, you two. Hi, Mary Louise. Hi there. Greg, I'm going to let you start from there in Kiev and just get us up to speed with the nature of the conflict and how it has been changed by drones. Well, Ukraine from the very beginning of this war has used the drones very creatively and effectively in ways we'd never seen before to neutralize Russia and its much larger and more powerful traditional military. But after being on the receiving end for a few years, Russia has been learning and is now unleashing large numbers of drones against Ukraine almost every night.

3:28You know, prior to this year, Russia might fire a couple dozen drones on a typical night, but that's now rising dramatically. Last month, Russia sent an average of more than 200 drones into Ukraine per night. On the most intense night, Ukraine faced more than 700 drones. These drones are dangerous on their own, but they also occupy the Ukrainian air defenses, and that helps clear the way for larger, more powerful Russian missiles that often come shortly afterward. And Charles, jump in from Moscow. How did Russia develop this capacity seemingly quite quickly to churn out so many drones? Yeah, you know, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine or full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, Russia had drones that were good for reconnaissance or intelligence gathering.

4:14But there weren't many of them, and they certainly weren't part of the Russian war plan. That's since changed, thanks initially to friends in some unusual places, says Omar al-Guzbi of the Center for Advanced Defense Systems in Washington. So if you are looking to procure drones, what better actor to go to than the Iranians, who have demonstrated they have the capability to produce such weapon systems for low cost, and despite having significant sanctions put on a country for the last several decades. So introducing the outsized influence of other actors, such as Iran. Charles, how much have Iranian drones, how much have they changed Russia's strategy?

4:57Well, they helped with the war planning, but there was a problem. There weren't enough of them. So sometime around late 2022, Russia acquired the technology and started modifying them. They became jet instead of propeller powered, and that meant they could fly faster and farther. And then Russia started to produce them en masse, most notoriously in a facility in the Republic of Tatarstan. But that's only part of it. The Russian government is also recruiting civilian hobbyists to develop their own models. Some have been approved with seed funding from their defense ministry to scale up. And that plant in Tatarstan, I mentioned, it includes a polytech school that recruits high school students and foreigners for work-study programs.

5:35And so altogether, instead of just a couple of drones or a couple dozen drones, Russia can now unleash hundreds in a night and often does, as Greg mentioned. And Charles, here in Ukraine, the military acknowledges that it's very difficult to deal with this Russian onslaught. We sat down this week with Ukraine's Air Force spokesman Yuri Inat.

5:59So he's saying here that Ukraine destroys incoming drones with helicopters, fighter jets, electronic jamming, machine guns, missiles fired from the ground. But some Russian drones still get through. Now, perhaps the most promising technology is using defensive drones to take down incoming offensive drones. And this looks to be the next big innovation in drone warfare. Ukraine already has these defensive drones or drone interceptors, but supplies are limited. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently visited a plant and said Ukraine needs to build a thousand of them a day, though it will take several billion dollars of investment to meet this target.

6:40So that's what Ukraine's doing. But Charles, back to you, what is the quality of all of these drones that Russia is putting into the fight? Well, they're not cutting edge, but they're up to the task. Moreover, Russians are getting more creative. You know, for example, they're deploying drones attached to fiber optic cables, a communications line, which keeps Ukraine from jamming the drone electronically. Now, of course, such fiber optic drones can only go as far as their cable is long. So they're not great for distances, but it's effective in frontline areas, so much so that the battlefield photos will show land strewn with these cables, almost like tangled fishing lines.

7:16And I want to stress that the reason we know any of this is because Russia has made no secret of it. The defense ministry here has run lengthy film documentaries that take viewers really inside the operation. And why? I suppose it's because it's a propaganda tool. They're proud of what they've accomplished with these drones in a relatively short period of time. And Greg, we've been talking about Ukraine's drone defenses. What about the other side of it? What is the country doing on offense? Well, Ukraine is striking almost daily deep inside Russia. In fact, the military said today it hit a large oil refinery in Volgograd in southern Russia, igniting a big fire.

7:54And this is an important plant, and it's been hit several times now. This is very much in line with Ukraine's recent focus on oil facilities and railway stations, parts of Russia's transportation network that takes ammunition and other supplies to Russian troops. Charles, last word to you, and I wonder if you would go big picture for us. drone warfare, how does it fit into the overall military approach from Russia these days? Well, I think you can tell it with an anecdote. You know, this past May, I was on Red Square for the annual Victory Day event celebrating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany.

8:28And there was a striking moment. You know, we're all used to seeing these Russian tanks and troops and ICBM missiles in this parade. And that's really the pantheon of Russian pride and military might. Well, this year there was a new addition, a flatbed truck hauling drones across the square. Those were my NPR colleagues, Russia correspondent Charles Maines in Moscow and national security correspondent Greg Myrie in Kiev. They are two of the many NPR reporters who will be joining me on our new podcast, Sources and Methods. Every Thursday, we'll do a deep dive on the biggest national security stories of the week.

9:08Our goal is to help you understand what is happening in the centers of power in Washington and around the world, and how events like a summit here in Anchorage may affect you. I hope you'll join us for Sources and Methods when it premieres August 28th and then every week after. You can find it then on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode was produced by Catherine Fink, Megan Lim, and Matt Ozug. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Patrick Jaron Wadananen, and Andrew Sussman. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

9:48It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.