Climate change is fueling brutal rainstorms. Here's how to stay safe

0:00Laura Sullivan:The aftermath of the flooding in Texas is really just beginning. Volunteers are still working along the riverbank cleaning up debris. One of them is Cindy Martinez.

0:10Michael Copley:I just wanted to help and it's my birthday and I couldn't think of a... I'm so thankful that I'm not going through something like this and the only thing I could think of doing, I feel so helpless.

0:20Laura Sullivan:She told NPR's Martin Costi that doing physical work, dragging tree branches up the muddy hill, makes it easier not to think about the lives lost here.

0:30Michael Copley:Although I'll be honest with you, when I see things like a lure, a fishing lure, and I'm like reminded, like somebody just came out here to fish that day. What have you found today?

0:39Laura Sullivan:A doll, some pajamas, people's lives. The disaster brought everyday life in parts of Texas to a standstill. One thing that hasn't stopped, though, is flooding. Kerr County, the hardest-hit area in the Guadalupe flooding, was under another flash flood warning Tuesday morning. And in just 11 days since the Guadalupe River disaster, deadly floods have hit communities all across the country. Last week, parts of North Carolina were inundated as remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal rolled through. Emergency Services Director Kirby Saunders called the flooding historic.

1:16Michael Copley:I've been here 12 years. It's my 28th year in public safety. I have not seen this.

1:22Laura Sullivan:A man and two children were killed in flash flooding in New Mexico in an area that saw wildfires last summer.

1:28Michael Copley:We received three and a half inches of rain on the South Fork burn scar in about a 90-minute period.

1:33Laura Sullivan:That was ruidoso Mayor Lynn Crawford. Then Monday night, it was New York and New Jersey. Video on social media captured rainwater cascading into the subways and streets turned into rivers.

1:46Michael Copley:You know, last night we got crushed.

1:47Laura Sullivan:New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said two people were killed when floodwaters swept their car away. The common thread in each of these situations, a ton of rain dumped very quickly, a risk that is expected to grow as the planet heats up.

2:00Michael Copley:We New Jersey, we America, we the globe, we're getting dragged by climate.

2:07Laura Sullivan:Consider this. Climate change is increasing flash flooding risk in the U.S. and our tools to deal with it are struggling to keep up.

2:19Laura Sullivan:From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

2:30Laura Sullivan:It's Consider This from NPR. So why is climate change expected to make extreme rainstorms like the ones we've seen this month more common? To dig into that question and what people can do to prepare, I spoke with Michael Copley from NPR's Climate Desk. So, Michael, over the past couple of weeks, so many of us have been really just shocked to see the intensity of some of this flooding. What can you tell us about why we're experiencing such extreme weather? Yes.

2:56Michael Copley:In general, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. So people keep releasing a ton of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels like coal and oil. And that's raising global temperatures and fueling more intense rainstorms that drop more water in shorter periods of time. And we're going to see more extreme weather events as the earth keeps heating up. And that's going to pose bigger threats to people and their homes and cities. Here's Gernot Wagner. He's a climate economist at Columbia Business School. It seems to be bad right now. This is the best year of our lifetimes. Wagner says communities need to invest billions and billions to deal with more extreme weather.

3:35Laura Sullivan:Okay, billions and billions, but what kinds of investments are we talking about here?

3:40Michael Copley:Yeah, we're talking about overhauling stormwater management systems that cities built decades ago so that they can handle more water coming down in these storms. They're also going to make big investments in underground rail systems like the New York subway. There have been cases of passenger stranded and service disrupted in places like Boston, D.C., and London in recent years. Some cities are trying to make investments to make their systems more resilient to climate change, waterproofing stations and tunnels. But keeping water out is a constant battle. And Wagner says some flooding, like we saw last night in the New York subway, is expected.

4:14Michael Copley:Yes, certain amount of flooding around the tracks in the subway system is in fact by design. Well, more flooding like that and people will die. Wagner says a lot of these transportation systems are already operating at or near the breaking point.

4:29Laura Sullivan:I mean, these flash floods, they can happen rather quickly. So what can people do to stay safe?

4:36Michael Copley:Yeah, they do have them really, really quickly. it's important to make sure that you're getting the emergency alerts. People get those through their cell phones. Oftentimes, they're also broadcast over the radio and television. And when flash flood warnings go out, experts say you really need to take them seriously. Maybe delay your commute. Don't drive through flooded areas. Also, check the flood risk at your home. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has a tool for that. So does First Street. It's an organization that assesses climate risk. And then you need to think about what are you going to do in an emergency?

5:07Michael Copley:Pack a bag ahead of time with an important stuff like documents and medication. And think about if you need to evacuate, how can you get to higher ground quickly?

5:15Laura Sullivan:Right. Michael, I understand that according to the government, just 4 % of homeowners have flood insurance. Is that right?

5:22Michael Copley:That's right. Yeah. I think most people don't know that home insurance doesn't generally cover flooding. They don't know that they need to buy a separate policy through the National Flood Insurance Program or a private company, or they think they only need flood insurance if they're in a flood zone. Anderson Baker is a retired insurance executive in Louisiana, and here's what he has to say to that. Everybody's in a flood zone. People at the top of the mountain are in a flood zone. They're just in a good flood zone. The other issue that we're seeing is flood insurance is getting pretty expensive around the country, especially in flood-prone areas.

5:51Michael Copley:And that cost is often a deal breaker, especially for people on tight budgets. But when homeowners don't have flood insurance, often they're on their own to deal with the damage, and that can be devastating financially.

6:02Laura Sullivan:Michael Copley from NPR's Climate Desk. Michael, thank you.

6:06Michael Copley:Thank you, Juana.

6:11Laura Sullivan:One of the tools that Michael mentioned was the FEMA flood maps. They're supposed to help communities predict and prevent the worst danger. Laura Sullivan on NPR's investigations team has found that in Texas, there were flood risks that those maps simply didn't capture. For most Americans, if you want to know if you live in an area at risk of flooding, you can punch an address into a database run by FEMA. A color-coded grid will tell you where the agency expects the water to reach. But for decades now, these maps have relied on old and limited data, and scientists for private companies are finding government maps woefully misrepresent the actual risk millions of Americans face.

6:50Michael Copley:I mean, it's interesting to see how close these cabins and these smaller buildings are.

6:54Laura Sullivan:Data scientist Jeremy Porter with the group First Street is studying aerial photos of a line of cabins at Camp Mystic in Kerr County, where more than two dozen young girls and camp staff lost their lives. As many as 17 camp buildings seem safely outside the water's range on the FEMA maps.

7:14Michael Copley:When we zoom in, we actually see that they're in our flood zone.

7:17Laura Sullivan:But First Street's maps show the buildings, including many cabins, are in danger. The difference reflects more than whether people know their flood risk, but whether they have prepared for it. Structures inside the government's flood areas are often required to be built in ways that could protect people from a flood.

7:34Michael Copley:There's a human element here that oftentimes gets overlooked because we're so worried about property damage.

7:40Laura Sullivan:The problem extends well beyond the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas. First Street found more than two times as many Americans live in risky places, compared to what the government reports on its maps. The reason, Porter says, is that FEMA does not map rainfall. It focuses instead on tidal surge and large river flooding at a time when climate change is supercharging rainfall intensity.

8:04Michael Copley:You think in principle people would say we should have better flood coverage, look what just happened, but it's so heavily politicized that you can't get anybody to bring it forward because they don't want to be the people that raised flood insurance costs.

8:17Laura Sullivan:A recent investigation by NPR and PBS Frontline found special interests are also playing a role. Groups like home developer associations have been lobbying Congress for less flood regulation and in some cases to stall updating the nation's flood maps. Developers told NPR they are trying to keep homes affordable. But even when FEMA does mark the most dangerous areas, those warnings are not always heeded. At Camp Mystic, NPR found at least eight buildings, including four cabins that housed younger campers, inside what FEMA calls a floodway. It's the most dangerous part of the floodplain, and it's where water is expected to move rapidly during a flood.

9:00Laura Sullivan:Think of the banks of a river.

9:02Michael Copley:In Texas, we don't think that the floodplains are that serious.

9:06Laura Sullivan:Jim Blackburn is the co-director of the Severe Storm Center at Rice University in Houston.

9:11Michael Copley:We treat floodplains as kind of a good old boy, kind of wink and nod. Oh yeah, it's a floodplain. Oh yeah, it's environmental red tape. And that is going to get a lot of people killed.