Has the U.S. lost the war in Iran?

0:00It's Consider This, where every day we go deep on one big news story. When the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began, President Trump addressed the nation from Mar-a-Lago. A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. The U.S. and Israel conducted a wide-scale military operation, killing most of Iran's most senior military and political leaders. In the three months since, the war has killed thousands of people, disrupted global energy markets, and sent the entire region into a wider conflict.

0:52Now, the U.S. and Iran are signaling that they are close to reaching an agreement that would potentially end the conflict. During a visit to India Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. has been uncompromising on at least one goal. The ultimate goal is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon. The president has been clear about that. They will never possess a nuclear weapon, certainly not as long as Donald Trump is president of the United States. But progress on that key issue as part of the deal remains very unclear, And Iran seems equally uncompromising, as NPR's Jane Arraf explains.

1:26Robert Kagan:Iran has repeatedly said it's not building a nuclear weapon. And recently it's been hardening its position on demands to send out highly enriched uranium. It says its program is for peaceful purposes. And Iranian leaders see the enriched uranium issue as a sovereignty issue. And they have said repeatedly they won't back down on that. Throughout the war, the U.S.'s main objectives have fluctuated, from regime change to stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon to reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz. All objectives that, according to Robert Kagan, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, the U.S.

2:08has not achieved. Has the U.S. lost this war? Yes. The Trump administration took it shut. It bombed Iran for 37 days. Iran was unbowed by that, despite the terrible destruction and the cost to its economy. And it has effectively made no concessions. And it's pretty clear by putting in a ceasefire length of 60 days that what Trump really intends to do is walk away and hope that the American people don't notice that he's suffered a major strategic defeat for the United States. Consider this. The status quo from before the war has changed, but maybe not in America's favor. If we are nearing the endpoint, what did the U.S.

2:47win or lose in the conflict? From NPR, I'm Adrian Flodillo.

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4:37It's Consider This from NPR. After nearly a three-month deadly conflict between the U.S. and Iran, officials in both countries are saying that they may have a path to peace. But the major objectives of the war haven't moved in the direction President Trump was targeting. The state of Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and more broadly, what the new status quo in the Middle East will look like. Robert Kagan is a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, and in his view, the U.S. is coming away from this war weaker than it was when it started. I think the administration is going to work very hard now and in the course of the next few days to try to present this as a deal that was successful for Donald Trump.

5:20But I think as far as is clear right now, it's pretty much a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States. Why is that clear to you? Well, because, first of all, Iran has offered nothing in return for a ceasefire, at least according to what we've heard. They've agreed to talk about their nuclear program, which, of course, is what we've been talking about all this time, but have made no concessions about what they intend to do in a final way. And most importantly, and I think this is what listeners need to focus on, Iran is going to end this war in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

5:55There's a lot of talk about, quote-unquote, reopening the strait, but it will reopen under Iranian control. It'll be under new management, which means that Iran is going to have the capacity to control who gets in, who gets out, when, and for how much money. That is a major shift in power in the region. It's a major blow to the United States position in the region, and it's also a major blow to Israel's security going forward. I want to stick with the issue of Iran's nuclear program for just a moment. White House officials have said many times that they started this war to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

6:30Again, we don't know what's in this potential deal, but if this deal does not include an ironclad commitment to pause uranium enrichment by Iran, what is the U.S. left with? Nothing. They're left with nothing because the leaders in Iran have been trying to see whether Trump would actually follow through on any of his military threats. And this has been going on now for two months. Trump is continually threatening to wipe out their civilization or take out all their energy. etc. And he's actually done nothing. And for him to now agree to a 60 day ceasefire is effectively to be walking away. And the Iranians can see that.

7:06And that's why they haven't made any concessions. There are Senate Republicans who are already speaking out about this possible agreement with Iran. Here's North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis speaking on CNN. We were told about 11 weeks ago by Hegseth and the Department of Defense that they had obliterated Iran's defenses. And it was just a matter of time before we had the nuclear material. Now we're talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran. How does that make sense at all? Robert Kagan, a lot of Republicans have spent years criticizing the Obama administration's deal that he signed with Iran in 2015 over Iran's nuclear program.

7:45Trump scrapped that deal. What would you have to see in this deal we're talking about now? Is there anything you could see coming out of this deal that would convince you that maybe the Trump administration has improved on the Obama deal? Well, if they got agreement from Iran to sort of hand out all of its enriched uranium and to promise not to enrich any further uranium, that would be a victory. But that is not what we're going to get. And I think that it is likely that the deal that Trump comes away with will either be the same or worse than the deal that Obama struck. And that is, again, because Trump evidently wants to quit the war and the Iranians therefore will come out on top.

8:27And so what would this mean for Iran's status in the region and its ability to wield power effectively? Well, if and when they ever get to a nuclear weapon, that'll obviously have a major impact. But I think it's important to note that what Iran has already won gives it unbelievable power that it's never had before, not only in the region, but in the world. The control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran the ability to affect the behavior of every nation in the world that depends on energy supplies from that region and other commodities for that matter, which means that Iran is going to be calling the shots on a lot of things that goes on in the Middle East, including Israeli behavior.

9:06And that's why I think among the biggest losers, and I think we're starting to hear this come out of Israel, is the Israeli government. What about the U.S.'s power in the region and the perception of U.S. power globally? What's coming out of this war? Well, I think the world is going to see that the United States, with its unparalleled military, launched a war against a second-rate power, which was severely weakened by a previous conflict and yet was unable to accomplish its objectives. We're already seeing in the Gulf, the Gulf states are now moving toward working out their own agreement with Iran.

9:39They don't feel that they can rely on the United States anymore. And America's allies, particularly in Asia, who are heavily dependent on the Gulf energy supplies, countries like Japan and South Korea, are going to see that the United States is now unable to protect that source of supply, which means that the United States has essentially put them in a position of real jeopardy. You recently wrote that, quote, the global adjustment to a post-American world is accelerating. America's once dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties, he said. What about this war has led you to that conclusion?

10:16This is just a signal of the U.S.'s overall decline in power globally. Yeah, sure, because the loss in the Iran conflict is only coming on top of much larger changes that the United States has made under the Trump administration, and above all, the fundamental abandonment of our allies, particularly in Europe, but also increasingly in Asia. We're pulling troops out of Europe. We've made it clear that we won't protect our European allies. even though we're supposed to under our NATO alliance. And that is forcing countries to change, to arm themselves, to look for alternative means of security, which is going to and already has significantly diminished American influence in the international system.

10:57I've been speaking with Robert Kagan. He is a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. Robert Kagan, thanks for joining us. Thank you. This episode was produced by Daniel Othman with audio engineering by Hannah Glovna. It was edited by Sarah Robbins. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Adrienne Farida.

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