How is the Iran war reshaping the world and politics here at home?

0:00It is astonishing what can happen in a week.

0:07It was sunrise Saturday in Tehran when the U.S. and Israel launched the first strikes of a war that over the past seven days have spread throughout and now beyond the Middle East. Over the course of the first 24 hours of the operation, the two countries struck more than a thousand targets. The most significant, said President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government.

0:44It will be yours to take. Your suffering and your sacrifice will not be in vain. We promised you the help and the help has arrived. We even saw one of the explosions from our office window around downtown Tehran. This engineer is one of many we talked to in Iran this week, who asked NPR not to use his name for fear of government retribution. Suddenly we heard cheers from our neighbors. And to be honest with you, the moment I heard the cheers, I knew what had happened. Iran's foreign ministry called the airstrikes a gross violation of its national sovereignty and vowed to respond decisively. They struck back, firing drones and missiles at U.S.

1:28bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, where the strikes killed six American service members. On Monday, Iran continued attacks on targets as far afield as Cyprus and the Mediterranean, and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon launched its own attacks on Israel, its first in more than a year. Two Iranian drones damaged the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia on Monday, And the day after, an Iranian drone targeted the U.S. consulate in Dubai. Hundreds more targeted U.S. troops in Iraq and elsewhere. And President Trump warned of more casualties. Sadly, there will likely be more. Before it ends, that's the way it is.

2:08As the U.S. and its allies responded, confusion sometimes set in. Kuwait mistakenly shot down three U.S. fighter jets. Oil prices spiked on Monday when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to fire on ships. Here's energy analyst John Kilduff of Again Capital. So this is becoming a very much a real supply problem for this market in real time, like a slow motion traffic accident coming to fruition here. The war strained relations between the United States and its Western allies. These operations were conducted outside of international law, which we cannot condone. That was France's President Emmanuel Macron.

2:46Other European countries like Germany struck a more conciliatory tone. Spain has been very, very uncooperative. And so has UK. Trump blasted the two countries when they refused to let U.S. troops use military bases in their countries to attack Iran. Spain held firm. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer eventually allowed use of its bases for defensive purposes. Still, he made an impassioned speech in Parliament saying Britain does not believe in regime change from the skies. We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons. By Wednesday, the conflict spread even further. A U.S.

3:25submarine sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka, carrying about 180 people. Pentagon Chief Pete Hexeth. It was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II. The strike set off ripples of anxiety across South Asia. Sashant Singh, a former Indian military officer, worries the strike will test Chinese dominance over the Indian Ocean. If the U.S. Navy is doing this here, it really sends a signal which the Chinese are likely to take more seriously. On Thursday, more fronts opened. An Iranian drone struck an airport in Azerbaijan, a U.S.

4:01ally. NATO intercepted a missile headed for Turkey. Secretary Hegseth warned yesterday the war will only expand in the coming days. The amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically. President Trump says there will be no deal except, in his words, unconditional surrender.

4:24Consider this. For the past week, Israeli and U.S. bombs have devastated Iran. The conflict has widened to include multiple countries in the Gulf. How is the conflict reshaping the world order and impacting Trump's popularity here in the United States?

4:42From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. And I'm Scott Detrow.

4:52It's Consider This from NPR. It didn't take long for the Iran war to spill over into the wider region. I spoke to NPR's diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman about how allies are viewing the widening conflict. Michelle, the Trump administration says its airstrikes are only just picking up steam. They say this will degrade Iran's ability to threaten the region. But most countries have faced Iranian drones and missile strikes. Will they be drawn into this fight? Well, that's really a big concern and why some are calling for de-escalation now. That includes the U.N.'s top humanitarian official, Tom Fletcher.

5:25He calls this a perilous moment. He says about a billion dollars a day are being spent on this war. And he's worried about what he calls an increasingly deadly alliance of technology and killing. We're seeing a sustained attack against the systems and laws meant to restrain us from our worst instincts and from reckless warfare. So too many warning lights are flashing on the dashboard right now. And he's also worried this could have ripple effects on markets and supply chains, which would have a devastating impact on the world's poorest people. What are world leaders and diplomats doing to keep this from escalating further?

6:02Yeah, I mean, the UN's top, sorry, the European Union's top diplomat, Kaya Kalas, met this week with counterparts from the Gulf states. And she says they're talking about what they can do to promote stability. And she says everyone's worried about what comes next inside Iran. Take a listen. Every time when, you know, we have seen these wars before in the Middle East, we have also seen that it doesn't go that easy, that, you know, one day there's war and the next day there's democracy. So clearly the risks are there. And she means the risks of civil war. She's also worried about air defenses in the Gulf.

6:38And, you know, it's interesting, Juana, because Ukraine is actually offering Gulf states some help because it has experience in dealing with Iranian drone technology used by Russia. And speaking of Russia, Michelle, the Washington Post is reporting that Russia has helped the Iranians with intelligence for its targets. And that's something that NPR has now been able to independently confirm. What role has Russia been playing so far? Well, it's called for the U.S. and it called the U.S. and Israeli actions a violation of international law. China has, too. But neither of them are really offering overt military support to Iran.

7:14They're both members of the BRICS group, which includes Iran. And, you know, India's in that too. But India's been pretty silent so far, even after the U.S. torpedoed that Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean. And that ship was there, Wana, at the invitation of India. It had participated in a multi-nation naval drill that was hosted by the Indian Navy. President Trump has said that after Iran's surrender, his words, allies and partners will bring Iran back from the brink. But from your point of view, will he have willing partners to do that? Well, we'll have to see. I mean, I will point out that it was just a couple of weeks ago that Trump brought together what he's calling this Board of Peace to rebuild Gaza and raise money for that.

7:58Indonesia now says that it's paused its talks with the board, though the State Department insists that Indonesia is still a member. It's really a key country because it's one of the few countries willing to offer troops for a stabilization force. So we'll have to see if it continues with that. Michelle Kellerman at the State Department, thank you. Thank you.

8:21How are Americans feeling about the war? That's something I discussed with NPR senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro. He joined me to talk through the results of a new NPR PBS News Marist poll. So what did we learn about how people feel about this war? A majority are against the military action. You know, 56 percent said that they oppose. And that's of the almost 1600 people that Marist surveyed this week. And like we've seen in other polls, Democrats and independents are largely aligned. Almost nine in 10 Democrats and 61 percent of independents are against the war. But Republicans heavily in support, 84 percent say that they're in favor.

8:59That's interesting because so much has been made of the various MAGA influencers who are not so supportive of this war. Yeah, I mean, there's going to be those voices. But like on so many other highly controversial things that President Trump has done, the overwhelming majority of Republicans are strongly in his corner and are likely going to continue to be there for lots of reasons. So a big divide by a political party, which, like you said before, is the story of the last decade. Were there any other notable divides here? Yeah, younger people, those 18 to 29 years old, were the most likely of any age group to be against the military action.

9:30Almost two-thirds say that. There were also notable divides by education, gender, and race. For example, whites with degrees heavily oppose the action, while whites without degrees, a slight majority is in favor. When it comes to men and women, men are far more likely to support it. And on race, those who are black and Latino were more likely to be against the action than whites were. What about President Trump? How are people viewing the way that he is handling this? Yeah, he gets just a 36 percent approval rating when it comes to this war. That mirrors Trump's overall approval rating on foreign policy from our last poll last month.

10:03It's also worse than when we asked about his handling of Iran after the killing of the Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani back in January 2020. Then about 42 percent approved. Not great, but still higher. We also see, again, some of the same divides. Democrats and independents heavily disapproving, while 8 in 10 Republicans in Trump's corner. Let's take a step back. A big part of the justification for this war from Trump and others is that Iran is a huge threat to the United States. How much do Americans feel that way? Yeah, a majority, 55 percent, sees Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all.

10:3844 percent do see it as a major threat, and that's four points lower, actually, than last summer. Those who see Iran as a major threat are mostly Republicans, white evangelical Christians, white women without college degrees, those who live in rural areas, and people who are 45 to 59 years old. Those least likely to see it as a major threat, white women with college degrees, people who live in the Northeast, white college graduates and millennials. We're seeing a real schism about just how heavily Americans feel the threat of Iran looms over American society. And the Trump administration has really been shifting its rationales for the threat that Iran poses or what the triggering event was to start this war in the first place.

11:19Trump continues to face a skeptical American public on many of his policies while people are continuing to say the economy is their top concern, that Trump isn't focused enough on it. And today we saw losses in a jobs report. And there have been now five monthly jobs reports that have shown losses in the past year when there had been four straight years of job increases before that dating back to the pandemic. And Piares Domenico Montanaro, thank you so much. You got it. This episode was produced by Connor Donovan, Elena Burnett, Alejandro Marquez-Hanza, and Erica Ryan with audio engineering by Ted Meebane.

11:52It was edited by Barry Hardiman, Tara Neal, Dana Farrington, Jeanette Woods, and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And before we go, thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider This. You can learn more at plus.npr.org.

12:19It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow. And I'm Juana Summers.