How Pakistan emerged as a key negotiator in the Iran war

0:00Earlier this week, the world held its breath as President Trump threatened a severe escalation in the war with Iran. He posted to Truth Social on Tuesday, giving an 8 p.m. deadline. A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. With just hours to go, he backed off. President Trump today has agreed to pause strikes for two weeks in exchange for Tehran reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz. One country was key to brokering the deal, Pakistan. Just bringing these talks together, in some ways that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role. Elizabeth Threlkald worked for the U.S.

0:38State Department in Pakistan, and she says the Pakistani government has a lot to gain by hosting these talks. Pakistan would benefit in terms of its international reputation, its positioning as a middle power and one with increasingly influential ties within the Middle East. Consider this. Pakistan has emerged as a key player in bringing Iran and the U.S. to the negotiating table. But will that be enough to bring peace? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

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1:57It's Consider This from NPR. Pakistan is scheduled to host U.S. and Iranian leaders this weekend with the goal of brokering a lasting peace agreement. It's an unusual role for the country that had been kept at arm's length by previous administrations. So how did Pakistan become the mediator in this war? For that, we've called Elizabeth Threlkeld. She's a senior fellow and director of the South Asia program at the Stemson Center. That's a nonpartisan global affairs think tank. She also spent time as a foreign service officer in Pakistan. I started by asking her how Pakistan managed to bring Iran and the U.S.

2:33to the negotiating table. Pakistan borders Iran, and they've had a bit of a testy relationship over time. Pakistan is home to the second largest population of Shia Muslims in the world. And it also has strong ties with Saudi Arabia. They have a mutual defense agreement. Pakistan has rebooted its relationship with Washington over the course of the last year with the second Trump administration. And it also has a strong relationship with China. And so over the course of the conflict, and indeed, even before this conflict began, Pakistan had played a quiet and helpful role in trying to pass messages among all of those sides, and particularly the U.S.

3:19and Iran. And in this case, it really has managed to walk a very difficult tightrope in bringing these talks together. And I think at a moment when it had a lot of on the line in terms of its own liabilities in this conflict, given its exposure. What do you think that Pakistan is looking to gain here? So I think there are two separate tracks. One is Pakistan is desperate for an end to this conflict. It is hugely exposed to the energy supply shortages, risks of inflation, food insecurity, fertilizer shortages, given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It neighbors Iran, and so there is some risk of conflict spillover.

4:10And it's also hugely dependent on its guest worker population in the Middle East to send back remittances for its economy. And so simply being able to bring an end to the conflict itself will greatly benefit Pakistan if the ceasefire holds. But I think there's also a geopolitical element here where Pakistan has not been as much of a player in recent years. especially following the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration was very reluctant to engage Pakistan. And Pakistan has very deftly managed to rebuild its relations with President Trump in his second term. And in some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it's succeeded in playing this role.

4:58U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will be attending the talks in Islamabad, if you could advise them on one thing to keep in mind, what would it be? My sense is that this is going to be a relatively longer term process. And so what is the immediate solution that perhaps might be able to come out of these negotiations that would allow for momentum to be built, for hopefully a reopening of the strait, but also to set both sides up for a workable process going forward. And as ever, that is going to be the challenge for the two sides. Pakistan's Shia population was outraged by the killing of the Iranian supreme leader at the beginning of the war.

5:43He was a revered figure in the wider Shia community. Do you think there will be heightened security for the U.S. delegation? Absolutely. I think top of mind for Pakistan's security forces and its leaders will be ensuring that there is security for these negotiations. And that comes from the threat from groups, for example, like the Pakistani Taliban or ISIS-K that are active. It's also certainly you alluded to the protests that we saw following the outbreak of this conflict with U.S. and Israeli strikes. Pakistan worked quickly to bring those protests under control. And since that initial outbreak of protests, we really haven't seen significant domestic unrest within Pakistan.

6:36Those were significant protests. And unfortunately, there were fatalities across the country, including outside the U.S. consulate in Karachi. But since then, we really haven't seen any significant domestic protest activity. We've been speaking with Elizabeth Threlkeld. She's a senior fellow and director of the South Asia program at the Stemson Center. Thank you. Thank you.

7:04This episode was produced by Jeffrey Pierre and Tyler Bartlom. It was edited by Tenbeat Ermias. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.

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