Republican lawmakers are breaking with Trump. Will it last?

0:00It's Consider This where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, is President Trump's grip on the Republican Party slipping? For most of the past decade, criticizing Trump has not been a good career move if you're a Republican. Think of Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney. I will do everything I can to ensure that the former president never again gets anywhere near the Oval Office. Or Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massey. Why are we going to war with Iran? Both lost primary elections to Trump-endorsed opponents. Other lawmakers have simply decided not to run, like North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis.

0:41He opposed Trump's so-called Big Beautiful Bill, then promptly announced he wouldn't seek re-election. And since then, he has been outspoken about administration policies. I'm sick of stupid. I want good advice for this president because I want this president to have a good legacy. But something different might now be happening in the Republican Party. Consider this. Trump's approval ratings on several critical issues have cratered. And lawmakers who are on the ballot in November are now openly breaking with him.

1:13From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow.

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2:29It's Consider This from NPR. Republicans running for Congress are grappling with how closely to align themselves with President Trump. The primaries are over. Historically, that means candidates shift toward appealing to a broader spectrum of voters. But this year is different. NPR political reporter Elena Moore and White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram have been covering the candidates and the president. And they join us now. Hey to both of you. Hey, Scott. Hello. No. Lynn, I'm going to start with you. Not uncommon for House and Senate candidates to moderate their messages a little bit after a primary, even in our polarized times.

3:01What's different this time? Yeah, the president's party is historically at a disadvantage in the midterms. And that may be the case this year. The latest NPR-PBS News Marist poll has Democrats up by a 12-point margin over Republicans. But Scott, I think what's been interesting about this moment is we've seen a growing group of GOP candidates show their cards a bit. you know, and shift their messaging on some of the key issues dogging this presidency, like the war in Iran, the economy, and they're being a little more direct about it, even if it, you know, at times breaks with Trump. And, you know, like you said, it's not totally abnormal to see candidates distance in order to appeal to independence in a general election.

3:42But Trump is also not your typical party leader, right? He's long had this like, very clear expectation of loyalty within the GOP. So right now, it kind of feels like we're seeing Republicans test that. And Deepa, at the same time, you know, some previous presidents in the situation have kind of said, do what you need to do to win. Trump is out there saying, pretend I'm on the ballot, act like I'm on the ballot, making it about himself. Yeah, you know, it's kind of weird, though, because the president is doing this dance where sometimes, you know, he's at these rallies, telling voters, like you said, to turn out as if he is on the ballot, telling them, you know, pretend I'm on it.

4:17And he's hoping that it'll increase turnout and enthusiasm for his party. But then at the same time, Scott, especially when he talks about decisions over the Iran war, he'll say, well, I'm not on the ballot. And so the election isn't factoring into decisions that he's making about the war, which I will say is the main thing voters are unhappy about because of how the conflict has driven up costs. So you see Trump doing this dance, this thing where he's trying to have it both ways. And meanwhile, that doesn't really leave a lot of clear messaging for Republican candidates who have been trying to navigate this for months now.

4:47Alana, tell me how this is playing out in some of the key races. I mean, take a look at, you know, some of these Republicans running in the most competitive toss-up elections, you know, races in the country where the outcomes will determine control of Congress. Messaging around the war in Iran is probably the clearest example of this. In recent days, we've seen several GOP Senate candidates running in these really close states come out against the war and explicitly blame the conflict for increasing costs on Americans. And, you know, even if they don't mention him directly, that's a break from Trump, who's repeatedly defended going to war and downplayed its burden on prices.

5:24Here's Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Michigan families are struggling with the price of everyday life. Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down. The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly. Deepa, President Trump does not really like it when members of his own party split with him. So I'm curious, has he responded to these individual moments? No, not really. It seems like he hasn't been tapped in or paying much attention to much of this. And you're right, he's usually quick to criticize members of his party who go against him, post on social media about that. But we really haven't seen much of that.

6:00You know, for Trump, though, there has been a lot going on as of late. He spoke at the UN earlier this week, hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House. And then, of course, he's been beefing with the White House press corps and limiting press access, which became a legal battle. That's also drawn criticism from some Republicans. So a little bit of a lot going on, you could say, in Washington. And there are these ads being put out by the administration too, right? Yeah, there are these ads that have been coming out, one this week where Trump encouraged Americans to vote against communism.

6:28It's paid for by public funds, but he gets into political content, and that raises a whole host of questions and issues, Scott. But this ad also entirely focuses on Trump and his agenda. Those ads have also been drawing criticism from lawmakers. And, you know, when you look at this, I think for a long time, Trump has been able to chart his own path in the Republican Party because Republicans have been willing and many times eager to get on board, even if it's not a typical Republican stance or response. And a lot of that is just falling apart. I mean, one direct way to to improve the political climate would be to respond directly to voters concerns.

7:02Is there any sign Trump is doing that? I would say not really. And I think a good example where this is kind of illustrated where he hasn't done this is the public backlash over AI and data centers. Republican strategists I've spoken with have been hoping that the president would change his rhetoric in the last several months to be less on the side of tech companies and more critical of how rapidly data centers have been expanding. But instead, the president has fully leaned into his stance and has been even more complimentary of data centers, despite how overwhelmingly unpopular they are. Alana, how widespread are these fractures?

7:36I mean, is the Republican Party at a turning point or is it something more complicated or nuanced? I think what's interesting here is that it's not just happening with candidates. It's happening with sitting lawmakers, too, who are not even on the ballot this year. You know, look at Utah Republican Senator John Curtis. Earlier this week, he sent a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee urging it to investigate the president's son, Donald Trump Jr., after ProPublica reported that a Russian oligarch paid for a lavish party celebrating his wedding. I talked to Republican strategist and Trump critic Sarah Longwell about that.

8:11She argues it's another sign that Trump's influence over the party could be waning. They saw career after career ended by pushing back on Trump. I think that people are starting to feel like Trump doesn't have that power anymore. But, you know, Scott, make no mistake, these examples are notable, but it's still just a handful of Republicans that we're talking about. Right. And more than that, Trump may be unpopular among all voters, but he's still extremely solid with his base. Among Republicans, our poll has his approval rating at 87 percent. But, you know, a winning coalition in the general requires more than just your base.

8:49I mean, look at the groups that Trump made gains with in 2024. All those groups are distancing from him pretty substantially. That is NPR political reporter Elena Moore and White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram. Thanks to you both. Thanks. Thank you. This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and Alejandra Marquez-Hanse, with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. Our director is Jonas Adams. It was edited by Kelsey Snell, Justine Kennan, and Tinbead Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning. Before we go, a shout out and thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners. You know who you are.

9:24Your support makes it possible for NPR journalists to report the stories you hear on this show. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. And if you want me to thank you next week, you can visit plus.npr.org to learn more.

9:43It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.

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