The Trump administration is changing student loans. Will it affect what people study?

0:00It's Consider This where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, the ever-shifting landscape of student loans. This month has seen a lot of changes to how the federal government handles student loans. They include how much students are able to borrow. Now the government is assessing loans through a test based on how much money students make after graduating. We hear calls for accountability and more local control. That's our goal, to give parents access to the quality education their kids deserve, to fix the broken higher education industry that has misled students into degrees that don't pay off.

0:40Here's Education Secretary Linda McMahon testifying before a House committee last June. When these colleges and universities set their fees of attendance, etc., and loans are gotten relative to that, those students who are applying for those loans are expecting to get a return on that investment and those parents who are backing that. McMahon wants to test that return on investment idea. Consider this. The Trump administration is drastically changing the student loan landscape. Will it affect the types of professions people choose to enter?

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2:35It's Consider This from NPR. The U.S. Department of Education is rolling out a new federal test, one that most colleges and universities will eventually have to pass. The test is known as do no harm, and it's pretty simple. If a program's graduates don't earn more than someone who never went to college, that program and its students could lose access to federal student loans. My co-host, Juana Sommer, spoke with NPR education correspondent Corey Turner to break down how this all works and the effects it might have. So, Corey, losing access to federal student loans sounds like a really big deal.

3:13So tell us how exactly this do-no-harm test is going to work. Yeah, so this new test, it comes courtesy of Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act from last year. And really, as you said in the intro, it's pretty straightforward. For undergraduate programs, their students, four years after they graduate, are going to need to earn more than working high school grads who did not go to college. And it's a pretty similar test for graduate schools, right? So a program's graduates need to earn more on average than those who finished college but did not go on to grad school. If a program dips below this earnings threshold for two years out of three, then students will no longer be able to take out federal loans to attend that program.

3:57Earlier this week, the Undersecretary of Education, Nicholas Kent, said of this change, quote, if a program can't show that it leaves its graduates financially better off than if they had never enrolled, it should not be underwritten by federal taxpayers. I have also heard, though, Juana, from lots of folks, really a bipartisan collection of folks across higher ed, who say, look, this is a pretty reasonable expectation. Here's Chris Medeo with the Nonprofit Institute for College Access and Success. I mean, this is really a very low floor, right? I mean, high school earnings is not a exceedingly high metric for a program to meet.

4:36And Corey, what can you tell us about the types of programs that might not be able to pass this new test? Well, fortunately, earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Education released a trove of data that give us a pretty good idea of where the hammer is going to be dropping. Broadly speaking, the data show that more than 800 ,000 students attend a program that would likely fail this do no harm test. We also know roughly half of them attend private for-profit schools, which already have a reputation for shortchanging students. One more really big red flag in the department's data, undergraduate certificate programs, You know, the kind that bill themselves as a short-term fast track into a specific career.

5:20Well, a quarter of all of those students in those programs are in one that would likely fail. And the program with the highest predicted failure rate is an undergrad certificate in cosmetology, with more than 90 percent of all of those programs leaving their students worse off. Oh, interesting. I'm really curious, though, about more traditional bachelor's and master's programs. How might they fare? Really well. According to the department's data, only about 1 % of bachelor's degree programs would fail the test. And it's a bit higher for master's degrees, about 4%, but still not bad. There are, though, some interesting patterns in the kinds of programs that fail more often.

6:02At the master's level, we're talking about mental and social health services. And then at the four-year bachelor's degree level, it's programs focused on theater, fine arts, music. I mean, I could imagine that some people might stop studying subjects like the ones you just mentioned because of this rule as well as a lack of access to student loans, which I mean, that kind of calls into question what higher education is supposed to be all about. Totally. This is what I find so fascinating about this whole idea, Juan. Like, do these numbers mean that these programs are bad? In some cases, yes. But in some cases, I think it also means that the U.S.

6:36economy just doesn't value the arts. So we're actually going to poke at this for a few more minutes with a colleague of mine. Her name is Tiffany Kamhai. She's an educational reporter with Oregon Public Broadcasting. And she has the story of a young teacher who graduated from a music program that would likely fail the government's new earnings test. Let's take a listen. Oh, one, two, three, one.

7:08Cindy Flores loves teaching mariachi music to middle and high school students in Oregon-Salem Kaiser School District. Their part goes like this. Two, three, three. Two, three. To get this dream job, she first had to study music at Portland State University and then get a teaching license. She took out federal student loans to pay for it all. I don't know. I feel like there's good side to it, really bad side to it. The good side is I was able to complete my degree. That was the whole reason why I wanted to go to college, was so I can get a music degree. The bad side was that by the time she got her license, she was$55 ,000 in debt.

7:47Still, she says it was worth it. You know, if it wasn't for PSU and the loans I could get, I wouldn't be a Mexican-American mariachi teacher for my Mexican-American students. But future music students at PSU might not have the same access to federal financial aid. That's because the school's undergraduate music students often don't earn as much as high school grads. Education department data shows the university's program would likely fail the new federal earnings test. But do students really go to music school to make money? And earnings is only a small piece of that puzzle. Leanne Scotto-Adams heads the Strategic National Arts Alumni Project.

8:26the nonprofit studies what happens to arts graduates. And Adams has a problem with this new federal earnings test. She says it's a one-size-fits-all measure of student success. Yes, you need to make money and earn money to make a living to survive. But we see our creative workers, they want to make an impact culturally. They want to make an impact on their community. These are all metrics that fall outside of just straightforward earnings metrics. Adams also takes issue with measuring earnings four years after graduation. She points to survey data that shows arts graduates often have unpredictable incomes at first, but their pay tends to stabilize and increase over time.

9:11Back in Oregon, Cindy Flores feels lucky to have full-time work teaching music. You get it? It's easy. That's in spite of all her student loan debt. Ugh, it is never about the money. I realized I wanted to have a career in music when I was in the eighth grade. Because every music teacher I've had in the past was such good role models in my life, and I want to be part of that community. And to be that kind of role model for her own students. For NPR News, I'm Tiffany Kamhai in Salem, Oregon. Oh, one, two, three, one.

9:50And NPR's Corey Turner is still with me here in the studio. And Corey, as we just heard in that reporting, there's not a simple formula to calculate a career's worth. And as you pointed out earlier, this do no harm provision, it's not a particularly high bar, but it doesn't take into account what we heard from Sandy Flores, that she's wanted to do this since she was in eighth grade, that she's passionate about teaching kids music. Is there anything else that you think this new rule misses? Yeah, I think there's one big wild card that's not in the formula, and that is student loan debt. There was a lot of debate about whether debt should be included in this new test.

10:22They decided against it. But, you know, there's a huge difference using music as an example between a graduate struggling with low pay and being debt free and a graduate struggling with low pay and also paying off$50 ,000 or$60 ,000 in debt. And I wonder if they had included this in the formula, you know, how many more programs out there, especially at more prestigious, expensive schools, would start to look like a bad deal? NPR education correspondent Corey Turner. Thanks. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Jeffrey Pierre, Zephyr Weinreich and Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Ted Meebane.

10:57Our director is Jonas Adams. It was edited by Nicole Cohen, William Troop and Tinbeat Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dornick. Thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider This. You can learn more at plus.npr.org.

11:30It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow. This message comes from HomeServe. A burst pipe. A dead water heater. The AC calling it quits. Who do you call? HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs. With plans covering stuff basic homeowner's insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to homeserve.com slash podcast for 50 % less your first year. Savings compared to renewal price. Boyd in Florida. This week on Sources and Methods, fresh strikes between Iran and the United States is the war back on.

12:14What Iran wants is to basically charge a toll or insurance fees to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That may be the way out of this. Plus, President Trump's surprise promise to Ukraine. Listen now on Sources and Methods on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.