The Trump administration says left-wing terrorism in the US is on the rise. Is it?

0:00Hours after conservative activist Charlie Kirk was killed, President Trump gave a somber video address from the Oval Office. To my great fellow Americans, I am filled with grief and anger at the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk on a college campus in Utah. And while law enforcement launched an investigation to find the person responsible for the attack on Kirk in September, President Trump had already placed blame. Those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world's worst mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we're seeing in our country today.

0:45And it must stop right now. The president claimed that all of this was part of a larger pattern. From the attack on my life in Butler, Pennsylvania last year, which killed a husband and father, to the attacks on ICE agents, to the vicious murder of a health care executive in the streets of New York, to the shooting of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and three others. Radical left political violence has hurt too many innocent people and taken too many lives. Then President Trump did something the U.S. has never done before. He designated a domestic terrorist organization, namely Antifa, which is more of a left-wing movement.

1:28And while it's unclear what that executive order actually accomplished, the Trump administration's words and actions raise the question, is left-wing political violence increasing in the United States? Well, the answer is... Complicated, I would say, because ideologies are becoming so chaotic, so complex, and because motivation towards violence appears to be a more important factor these days in a lot of cases than actually ideology. Consider this. For years in this country, right-wing terrorism has been deadlier and more frequent than terrorism from the political left. One new study says that is changing, which is drawing concerns.

2:13From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang.

2:23It's Consider This from NPR. For many years, the far right has been the most lethal and persistent source of domestic terrorism in the U.S. But the assassination of right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk last month and attacks against immigration enforcement efforts have fueled a talking point for Republicans about concerns over left-wing political violence. The political motivations behind these attacks are still unclear, but one study says violence from the left has been the greater threat so far this year. NPR domestic extremism correspondent Odette Youssef looked into whether this claim was correct.

3:00President Trump's insistence that the far left has been the primary culprit for domestic terrorism goes back years at this point. Because this is not a right-wing problem. This is a left-wing problem. This is a left-wing problem. That was a 2020 presidential debate when Trump was asked if he would condemn far-right extremist groups. It was also just days after his acting head at the Department of Homeland Security told congressmen that white supremacist extremists were responsible for the most lethal extremist violence. Still, five years later, there is a sense that something is shifting. The nation has seen the killing of Charlie Kirk, the apparent attempted assassinations of Trump, the gunning down of a health insurance executive in New York, and more.

3:49These events are not clearly coded as right-wing. And so, has the violence, in fact, pivoted to the left? My hope was to bring some data to the discussion. Daniel Byman is director of the Warfare Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS. Data on domestic terrorism is surprisingly hard to come by. There is no public, official, unified, and comprehensive database. So researchers like Byman are assembling databases on their own. He looked at incidents between 1994 and July 4th of 2025. We're seeing, you know, from a low baseline, an increase in left-wing attacks.

4:35And we're seeing a decrease in right-wing attacks from much higher numbers. Byman and his co-author found something remarkable. Their tally showed that in the first half of 2025, far-left terrorist activity had overtaken that from the far right. It's a departure from the pattern of the last 30 years. News outlets ran with that headline. But among many professionals in Byman's field, the surprise has been for a different reason. Five is a really low case number to try to make any kinds of inference from and try to say that we're having a major increase in any kind of problem. Amy Kuder is deputy director at the Institute for Countering Digital Extremism.

5:18Five is the number of far-left terrorist plots and incidents that Byman's study tallied during the first half of 2025. It's a small number, but it's bigger than previous time periods. And Cooter says that is exactly what can distort conclusions. Compared to historical data, almost any increase in left-wing violence is going to look like a big jump. Byman acknowledges this. Still, he says the trends are what matter. But Jacob Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says there are more questions. There have been methodological concerns that have been aired with that product.

5:59This is where the real mess starts. There are a host of subjective calls when it comes to analyzing domestic terrorism. How destructive was the crime? Did people die? Was that by intent? If not, could people have gotten hurt? What was the perpetrator's politics or ideology? Did that motivate the violence? How much fear did the act create? and to what extent did mental health issues factor into the attack? And so some incidents that the CSIS study included and left out have been disputed. Again, Jacob Ware. Early this year, for example, there were a number of fire bombings at Tesla stores or other Tesla infrastructure.

6:46To me, that might qualify as an act of terrorism. If somebody is using incendiary devices against civilian targets for political purposes, those don't seem to be counted. But the study does count the burning of 11 NYPD squad cars among its five left-wing terrorist incidents of 2025. Ware says that one wouldn't make his cut. Another instance that raises questions involved an individual arrested by U.S. Capitol Police earlier this year for allegedly plotting to kill Trump cabinet members. The individual reportedly turned herself into law enforcement before following through. Should that count? Some might say no, but this study included it.

7:28What about the killings of two Israeli embassy staffers in May? Those are left off this list. Byman says he understands if others arrive at different conclusions on these, as he calls them, edge cases. But two or three out of five can change whether there is, in fact, a trend. Taking a step back, researchers in this field largely agree that something is shifting. Political violence has increased. There is concern that more may be coming from the left, though many told NPR it's just too early still to know. For Jacob Ware, the left-right framework isn't the best way to understand the change. Terrorism is getting more personal.

8:14Whether it's the killings of a health care CEO, a Minnesota state lawmaker, Charlie Kirk, Israeli embassy staffers, the arson at the Pennsylvania governor's mansion, attempted assassinations of Trump, Ware says this is different from the past. Historically, domestic terrorists in the U.S. have sought a large body count. But in recent cases, Ware says perpetrators or suspects haven't done that, even in situations where they could have killed more people. And he says the question of whether their violence stemmed from far left or far right tendencies is more often than not unclear. We really need to get statements or justifications, motivations from perpetrators.

8:59And I don't think we have that in the Charlie Kirk assassination or the Minnesota assassination. So I would argue there's a world in which neither of those people should be coded as as terrorists. I mean, they're clearly assassins, but I just don't think we have the information yet that would allow us to code them as terrorists. Ideally, a data-based understanding of who is committing domestic terrorism, how and against whom, would help law enforcement allocate resources toward the greatest threats. But as the Trump administration continues to ramp up its efforts against its political opposition, Ware and Byman both say any data are unlikely to shift that agenda.

9:40That was Odette Youssef, who covers domestic extremism for NPR. This episode was produced by Janaki Mehta and Alejandra Marquez-Hanse. It was edited by Andrew Sussman and Sammy Yenigan, who is also our executive producer.

9:55It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.