What are the implications of a shrinking supply of U.S. missiles?

0:00It's Consider This, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, the United States is confronting a new challenge. After months of war with Iran, the U.S. is running out of some critical weapons. That is according to a U.S. official who isn't authorized to speak publicly. The source tells NPR the Pentagon has almost depleted its precision missile stock. That's like Tomahawks, JASMIRs. Those are the names of them. That's Mark Montgomery, retired Navy admiral, now a senior director at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies. He spoke to Here and Now on Tuesday. We did use a lot of them, a surprising number, at the beginning of the conflict with Iran in order to knock down their air defense systems and make it secure for our pilots, which is a good use of them.

0:48A good use of them. But what happens if the United States gets into another conflict with a much larger military? Do we have a munition shortfall when it comes to China or Russia? I would say the answer is starting to be yes. And late last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went to Capitol Hill asking for more money for his budget, including$67 billion to replenish depleted weapons stockpiles. Without these funds, we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to also simply pay our service members, rapidly replenish equipment and munitions, and sustain vital operations without disruption.

1:27Consider this. A dwindling weapons stockpile for the U.S. isn't just affecting the war with Iran. Allies are now having to come up with a plan B.

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3:07It's Consider This from NPR. The war with Iran has seriously depleted the U.S. missile stockpiles, both offensive and defensive. Now, we've talked on this program before about the stockpile of defensive Patriot missiles. That stockpile has dropped by about two-thirds since the war began. Well, now a Reuters report confirmed by NPR says the army has used up most of its long-range attack missiles during the war, and that's raising concerns not just in this war with Iran, but also for future conflicts. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman is here. Hey, Tom. Hello there. Okay, what are these army missiles that we're talking about?

3:45Well, two missiles in particular, according to a U.S. official not authorized to speak. The first is called ATACMS for the Army Tactical Missile System, which is fired from an armored vehicle with two blanchers that kind of look like a pack of cigarettes. And it's a precision weapon, a range of nearly 200 miles, so it could be fired from American bases in the Middle East, probably closer to the coast to hit targets inside Iran. The other attack missile is called the PRISM, another acronym, of course. This is a military and stands for precision strike missiles and it's ranged about 300 miles, so deeper into Iran when you fire it.

4:21Now, one benefit of these missiles besides the precision is that they're what's called standoff weapons, which means they can be fired from pretty far away. So you don't have to worry about, let's say, an American pilot getting too close to an enemy's air defenses. When we say the army is short on these missiles, How short? How many are left? Well, no details on the numbers of these missiles that have been used. And, of course, there have been more than 15 ,000 Iranian targets hit during the war. Now, it appears, at least as we're talking now, that a return to massive U.S. airstrike seems unlikely.

4:54Treasury Secretary Scott Besant says it appears Oman and Iran are close to a deal to manage the Strait of Hormuz. And that could lead to it reopening and then further, you know, maybe indirect talks with the U.S. and Iran could lead from that. OK, but beyond Iran, what about the concern I raised for future conflicts? What are we talking? Well, in a word, China. These attack missiles would be key in any conflict with China. The likelihood of that happening now is low. U.S. officials say China won't have the ability to assault Taiwan until next year. And that's capability. It doesn't mean they'll do it.

5:37But if they do, then the role for the U.S., what will that be? And what are the threats to U.S. forces in the region? That's why it's crucial to have adequate stockpiles of both offensive and defensive weapons like the Patriot. And that stockpile has dropped quite a bit, as we've talked about. At the start of the war, there were nearly 2 ,400 Patriot missiles. Now that's down to between 700 and 850. And that's according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The exact number are classified, and I'm told by U.S. officials, those numbers from CSIS are pretty accurate. Okay, so down to somewhere between 750, 800 or so.

6:17What are Pentagon officials, U.S. officials you speak to saying about this? Well, not much because it's classified. And the Trump administration, frankly, has been all over the map on the issue. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said back in June, media reports of depleted stockpiles were manufactured stories. But two months earlier, he said it's going to take months or years to rebuild missile stockpiles. That's NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Now, all this affects other conflicts as well. Ukraine, for example, is desperately short of U.S.-made Patriot air defense missiles needed to defend against the Russians.

6:51President Volodymyr Zelensky says that is why it keeps getting hammered by Russian ballistic missiles. NPR's Greg Meirich reports from Ukraine's capital, Kiev. Ukrainians are way too familiar with air raid sirens wailing in the middle of the night and with the boom of air defense weapons being launched. These measures have helped protect people. But in recent weeks, Russia's ballistic missiles are slamming into Ukrainian cities far more often because the country is running out of American-made Patriot air defense missiles. Workers are sweeping up in an apartment building in the western part of Kiev.

7:32The scorched and pockmarked building was hit by a missile just hours earlier, shattering windows, spraying debris, and inflicting multiple casualties. I spoke with a resident, Ivan Rinovich, age 24.

7:48There's no question these attacks will continue. The main question is how many more buildings will be hit before our foreign partners give us more help, more Patriot missiles. Ukraine began receiving Patriot air defense batteries three years ago, and this has limited the damage caused by Russian missiles. But Russia has been making and firing more missiles recently, at exactly the same time Ukraine's stocks have dwindled. The Patriot system has really been the main ballistic missile defense system, and it's a really big stockpile problem. And so I don't know if there's any immediate solution. Rob Lee is an American military analyst living in Ukraine and working with the Foreign Policy Research Institute of Philadelphia.

8:31The attack last Saturday showed just how dire the situation is. Russia unleashed 27 ballistic missiles, and Ukraine only shot down one, according to officials. Seven different parts of Kiev were hit. Nine people were killed, more than 30 injured. When facing Russian drones, Ukraine shoots down more than 90 percent of them. Air Force spokesman Yuri Anat explains that Ukraine does this in multiple ways. It fires its own interceptor drones. It uses electronic jamming to drive Russian drones off course. and it sends up helicopters and old propeller planes equipped with machine guns to shoot them down.

9:17We use all these different means and we have to act quickly. The Russians try to exhaust our air defenses with drones and then fire ballistic missiles. But with these missiles, which travel thousands of miles an hour, there's no reliable alternative to the Patriot, first introduced by the U.S. in the 1980s. The U.S. has shared this system with nearly 20 other countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. President Volodymyr Zelensky is pleading with these countries to send some of their missiles to Ukraine. He says they shouldn't be stockpiled for, quote, hypothetical scenarios, but used here and now to contain and stop the Russian war.

9:57The U.S. has the largest arsenal. However, President Trump has cut off nearly all military assistance to Ukraine, and the U.S. burned through much of its Patriots stockpile in the Iran War. Mark Montgomery is a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who comes to Ukraine to help train the military. He says one possible approach in the short term is for Ukraine to use its U.S. F-16 fighter jets to attack the sites where Russia launches the missiles. Instead of trying to defend against every single incoming missile, He says go after the Russian teams firing them. I think there's a great opportunity here to help the Ukrainians strike the ballistic missiles before they launch.

10:42He says this would require modifications to the F-16s, but believes it could be done in weeks. If we can kill their operators, we're going to reduce their launches. Meanwhile, Ukraine is gaining momentum in the war with punishing drone strikes deep inside Russia. But the problem with Russian missiles cannot be ignored, says Rob Lee. This is going to be an enduring challenge for Ukraine where they've, you know, a number of good trends, positive trends in the war right now. But this is certainly one of those trends that is still very difficult. Back at the damaged apartment building, workers cut plywood to cover missing windows.

11:16A backhoe loads rubble into a dump truck. A steamroller levels fresh asphalt to repair the damaged street. Ukrainians are briskly efficient in cleaning up after attacks. But what they really want is a defense that keeps these strikes from ever happening. That was Greg Myrie reporting from Kiev. This episode was produced by Catherine Fink, Alina Burnett, and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. Our director is Jonas Adams. It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Patrick Jaron Wadananen, and Ashley Brown. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dornan.

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