What do we know about what's happening in Iran?

0:00It is difficult to know what's happening in Iran right now. The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran, and so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them. And it's not just me, it's some Iranians across the diaspora around the world. Holly Dogris is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She grew up in Iran. Dogris told NPR that she hasn't heard from her family in days because the government there has shut down the internet and phone communications. I know that some people have been able to get a hold of their families and friends. There's been messages pouring in from Starlink if you have a friend, a neighbor, a family member.

0:39But that's only 50 ,000 to 60 ,000 users across a country of 90 million. So effectively, much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside. What we do know is this. The country has been rocked by days of large anti-government protests, first sparked by the crippling economy, now anger at the theocratic regime. Videos posted online show streets where protesters are shouting and clapping and images of barricades and lit fires. NPR has not been able to independently authenticate these videos. More than 500 people have been killed, according to the U.S.-based human rights activist news agency.

1:19NPR is unable to independently confirm that figure. Right now, what Iranians want are two things. They want to have access to the world. But more importantly, they want a democratic transition. They've been calling for this regime to go for a long time. And now, President Trump is considering whether to weigh in and how, even though Trump says Iran is willing to negotiate. I think they're tired of being beat up by the United States. Here's Trump talking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. We may meet with them. I mean, a meeting is being set up. But we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting.

1:58And if the United States attacks, Iran has threatened to retaliate. Nader Habibi focuses on Middle East economics at Brandeis University. He told NPR that the regime knows the U.S. could do considerable damage to the ballistic missile facilities and hit political targets. I don't think they are underestimating the risk. scam. That's why they are issuing some threatening postures in terms of retaliation, even though in reality they might not be able to carry out those threats. Here's Trump again. If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before. Consider this. Sanctions, cyber attacks, military strikes.

2:40President Trump keeps suggesting that the United States may get involved. If so, when and how?

2:51From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

3:01It's Consider This from NPR. Iran and the United States have been trading threats over the last few days as anti-government protests in Iran have killed hundreds of people. For more, we're joined by NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez and national security correspondent Greg Myrie. Hi to both of you. Hello. Hi, Wana. Greg, I'll start with you. Tell us what the latest is on these protests. Yeah, the Iranian security forces are using deadly force much more frequently in recent days. More than 500 Iranians have been killed now over the past two weeks. These are mostly protesters and some security force members.

3:35This is according to the human rights activists in Iran. They are based here in the U.S. but have monitors in Iran. Now, neither NPR nor other news organization can verify these figures because information is so fragmented from Iran right now. The government has shut down the internet for the past several days. We are seeing videos on social media, but very little solid information. Local journalists are restrained. Foreign journalists can't get into the country. And over the years, we've seen several outbursts of these large street demonstrations dating back really to 2009. The latest one erupted over miserable economic conditions, but now there are increasing calls to oust the regime.

4:17This may well be the biggest challenge to the Islamic government since it came to power in 1979. And as we heard at the top, President Trump says he is looking at all sorts of options in Iran. Franco, what can you tell us about him? Yeah, President Trump said Iran is starting to cross his red lines, but he did not say exactly what they're looking at. But he and his administration say they are weighing several different possibilities, including military and non-military options. And he said after making earlier threats that the leaders of Iran reached out actually over the weekend and want to negotiate.

4:51Now his team is working on a meeting, but he also said they might have to act sooner if this violence that Greg is talking about continues. Trump's expected to meet with his national security team tomorrow about Iran. Iran actually has responded as well, warning that U.S. bases could be considered a legitimate target if the U.S. goes through with the strike. But Press Secretary Caroline Levitt called those comments laughable today and said on Fox News that the regime is saying one thing publicly and saying something very different privately to the administration. But is President Trump's goal really to protect protesters?

5:26I mean, he's not exactly known for fighting for human rights. What kind of deal is he seeking? Yeah, he's definitely not known for fighting for human rights. But let's also remember that he did order military strikes on Syrian targets during his first administration in response to chemical attacks by the Assad regime. At that time, he talked about his red line being crossed as well and specifically cited the image of choking children. Now, today or this weekend, Trump also said he would talk with billionaire Elon Musk about possibly getting Starlink, Musk's satellite internet service to help with communications in Iran.

6:01But what Trump really wants, and this is something he's wanted for a long time, is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Franco, what kind of feedback is President Trump getting from Congress, U.S. allies, other countries in the Middle East? Well, he's always bouncing ideas off his friends and allies. One close ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, for example, is urging Trump to kill, quote, kill the leaders of Iran who are killing protesters. Graham argued on Fox news that taking out the supreme leaders would lead to peace and a new day in the Middle East. Now, of course, other lawmakers have expressed caution about taking military action.

6:38We've also heard, Juana, from the exiled crown prince of Iran who has called on Trump to intervene. Trump was asked if he'd meet with the crown prince by a conservative radio host, Hugh Hewitt, but Trump said it would not be appropriate right now to do that. Greg, if we can, let's just take a step back here and talk about how Iran's leadership has become so vulnerable. Yeah, Iran has really suffered this series of major setbacks in the past two years. First among its proxy network in the region and now at home, it really starts, Juana, with the Hamas attack in Israel in October of 2023. Israel's harsh response decimated Hamas, which has been supported by Iran.

7:18And a year later, the fall of 2024, Israel delivered another powerful blow, this time to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran also backs. Right after that, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled, removing another ally. Iran invested billions and used these groups to project power in the region. Suddenly, they're all gone or badly weakened. And then Israel and the U.S. teamed up and bombed Iran last June. They hit the nuclear facilities, but they also exposed the weakness of Iran's defenses. And now we're seeing these mass protests challenging the regime. And Greg, what options does the Iranian leadership have at this point?

7:57Well, they're limited and they're not good ones. The traditional playbook is to unleash the Revolutionary Guards to crush the protests. That worked previously. It may work again, but it doesn't address the fundamental grievances on living standards, and that will keep eroding any support the regime might have left. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah al-Hamene is 86. He's been in power 37 years. He's been good at holding power, but he's failed to meet the day-to-day needs of Iranians. NPR's Greg Myrie and Franco Ordonez, thanks to both of you. Sure thing, Juan. This episode was produced by Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Becky Brown and Josephine Neonai.

8:38It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler, and Courtney Dornig. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

8:48It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.