What this week’s elections could mean for the midterms

0:00It might have been an off-year election, but this week Democratic candidates won marquee races in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. So does their big night mean something bigger? Well, we're all going to pretend it does because that's what we did. That's Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, speaking with my colleague Layla Foddle. We analyze elections and we pretend to know what's going to happen a year from now. But the truth is that the headlines will change so many times between now and the midterm elections in November of 2026. That hasn't stopped Democrats and Republicans from making meaning out of the results.

0:36For Democrats like California Attorney General Rob Bonta, this was a sign that voters are unhappy with the current administration. The status quo is not working for voters. It was very much a referendum on Trump. He wasn't on the ballot, but he was essentially on the ballot. Meanwhile, most Republicans are downplaying the results. House Speaker Mike Johnson during a news conference on Thursday. This was not a surprise to us. I mean, blue states elected blue leaders. I mean, yeah, so what? Off-year election results in isolated places are never indicative of the upcoming midterm election. The GOP is in excellent position to win big next year.

1:12But whether Tuesday night was a blip or a turning point, both parties have to figure out where they go from here. Trump got that started at breakfast with Republican senators on Wednesday. I don't think it was good for Republicans. I don't think it was good. I'm not sure it was good for anybody. But we had an interesting evening and we learned a lot. And we're going to talk about that. And we're going to talk about it, too. Consider this. It's now less than a year from the midterms. How are the major political parties looking to ramp up the votes?

1:46From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. This message comes from CBC. Do you want kids? The mother of all questions. is questioned in, personally, creation myth. Listen now, wherever you get your podcasts.

2:08It's Consider This from NPR. The elections this week were the first time that voters got to register how they're feeling a year after President Trump's election. And the answer was clear. They are not happy with the party in power. Now both Republicans and Democrats are reflecting on where they are and what they need to do to win in the future. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith are reflecting on that too. And they're here to talk about it. Hi there. Hello. Great to be with you. So, guys, Democrats had a huge week, big wins for mayor in New York City, governor in New Jersey, as well as in Virginia.

2:43How are they feeling going forward? Democrats got their groove back, at least a little bit, after last year's bruising losses. They spent months in the political wilderness, but now they feel like they have a roadmap out. Just listen to Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin in a call earlier this week. Make no mistake, the Democratic Party is back. The Democratic Party is a party of affordability, and the Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year. Winning is one heck of a drug. Yeah. And this is a lesson that they learned from the 2024 election. You know, a lot of people felt like it was too esoteric, focused in many respects on Trump and democracy.

3:23You know, Kamala Harris says the Democratic candidate tried on the economy and inflation, but it's a lot harder to win and make the focus on affordability when you're in charge and people are upset about the state of the cost of living. And it's a message that Democrats are coalescing around now, no matter who that candidate is. And there was a lot of ideological diversity among the Democratic Party candidates who won. How's the party handling that? Yeah, it's easy to look at the election of Democratic Socialists Zoran Mamdani in New York City and moderates Abigail Spanberger and Mikey Sherrill in Virginia and New Jersey and say, wow, this party is split between progressives and moderates.

4:00But there is actually a through line, which Martin referenced. It's that affordability thing. And there's an analogy here to 2006, when Democrats were still licking their wounds from George W. Bush's reelection and voters were in a foul mood. Democrats coalesced behind a clear and simple message. John Lawrence was chief of staff to Nancy Pelosi, who became speaker of the House after that election. And he says Democrats need to do the same thing now. And he even has some hope that they will. for all the focus on Mamdani, if you listen to Spanberger or Sherrill's acceptance speeches, they're all talking the same language.

4:38I mean, they're not talking about free buses or rent control, but that doesn't matter. They're talking about affordability. He says Democrats just need to stick with this affordability message going into the midterms, cost of living, groceries, power bills, housing costs, and not let themselves get distracted by social issues or climate change or the democracy stuff. Right. But as you guys well know, President Trump in his campaign, he specifically promised he would fix the economy. He claims now that he has. But that's not what voters are saying they feel. So what does this mean for Republicans?

5:08Yeah. I mean, Trump won in 2024 because of the cost of living and he promised to fix it. But what he qualifies as a great economy isn't resonating with voters. And that was clearly the case in these off-year elections. For Trump, it's all about things like the stock market and gas prices. But those are not everything. And his tariffs have actively made things more expensive. Is the White House acknowledging that, though? One of the president's top political advisors said this week that Trump will be pivoting to talk more about the cost of living. But he's been talking about it a lot this week, actually, as if it isn't a real problem.

5:42I don't want to hear about the affordability because right now we're much less. If you look at energy, we're getting close to$2 a gallon gasoline. That was Trump last night at a dinner for Central Asian leaders. And he really seemed to dismiss the concern about the cost of living as a messaging problem. The affordability is much better with the Republicans. The only problem is the Republicans don't talk about it. And Republicans should start talking about it and use their heads because we have great numbers. We have great and they're going to only get better. He says the numbers are going to get better because his tariff policies will ultimately improve the U.S.

6:18economy, though that's really not clear at this point. Right now, Trump is facing some of the same issues that President Biden did, which is that you can't credibly tell people that the economic fundamentals are strong and inflation is slowing down if out in their real lives they are experiencing sticker shock. Right. And when we get to the midterms, Republicans will still be in charge. President Trump himself won't be on the ballot, though. So what dynamic does this create for Republican candidates? I mean, no matter what they do, Republicans are going to be tied to Trump. But in those swing districts, they're going to likely have to try, if the affordability environment doesn't change, to try to distance themselves somewhat from Trump.

6:58Here's Republican strategist Mike Duhaime, a former political director at the Republican National Committee, making that point. Especially in the blue and purple states, there has to be some differentiation from Trump. Doesn't mean you have to completely distance yourself, but there has to be something where you show some level of independence and some level of individuality. And another part of the problem here for Republicans is that they can't actually be Donald Trump. Most candidates have to realize, like, you're not Donald Trump. You were not on The Apprentice for 10 years. You were not a star on the WWE.

7:29Your name is not on buildings. So it's really an era we're in of the celebrity politician, but it's also an era of anger at whoever's in charge. You know, again, 2006 was a marker for the beginning of this trend. You know, consider that six of the last seven midterm elections have had presidents with approval ratings under 50 percent. And we're moving toward that again with Trump. This is a problem that Democrats had when President Obama was in office. He was a turnout machine, but only when he was on the ballot and the party had major losses at the state and even local level during his presidency.

8:02Right now, Democrats do not have an obvious leader that will likely be decided by the presidential primary over the next two and a half years. And it's not clear what a post-Trump Republican Party looks like either, because he has demanded absolute loyalty and fealty from members of his party. Right now in this era of anger and skepticism at presidents, being out of power gives the advantage to Democrats heading into next year's midterms. NPR's Domenico Montanaro and Tamara Keith, thanks to both of you. You're welcome. You got it. This episode was produced by Michael Levitt, Casey Murrell, Connor Donovan, and Karen Zamora.

8:39It was edited by Kelsey Snell and Patrick Jaron Watanon. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. Thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. You can learn more at plus.npr.org.

9:04It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.