What we know about an Iran deal

0:00It's Consider This, where every day we go deep on one big news story. Today, what we know about an Iran deal. After months of war and deadlocked negotiations, President Donald Trump announced Sunday on social media he has struck a deal with Iran. The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world because the oil was really clogged up there for a while. That was Trump speaking today in France ahead of the G7 summit. According to Trump and Iranian officials, the deal would open the Strait of Hormuz and end fighting on all fronts, including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

0:36But Israel, the U.S. partner in this war, is not a party to this agreement. And Israeli officials have said that their forces in Lebanon are not going anywhere. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to comment on the deal. Trump says a final agreement would limit Iran to enrich uranium for, quote, non-military purposes forever. This is a very powerful document. It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. This is a very powerful document, and I want it to be released probably pretty soon. I would say sometime after Friday. Consider this. Trump says the long-sought deal to end the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is imminent, but without Israel on board, will it actually stick?

1:24From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow.

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2:18It's Consider This from NPR. The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that could end more than three months of war in Iran. But a day after the deal was announced, we still do not know what exactly is in it. We have called on two of our correspondents to break down what we know and what we don't know. The PR's Danielle Kurtzleben is here in Washington and Greg Myrie is in Tel Aviv. Greg, I'm going to start with you. This memorandum of understanding has not yet been released, but is there anything that we know about that that should be set into motion and how soon? Yes, Scott, there is. If this agreement works as planned, several important things could start happening quickly, anytime over the next couple days.

2:58The U.S. and Iran will end the sporadic attacks taking place despite a ceasefire. Iran and the U.S. will lift their dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, reopening it to oil tankers. And Israel and Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon should stop. So these are all significant, positive developments. But if you remember, these conditions existed before the war began. So it's really just a return to the status quo. The hard stuff has been put off for negotiations over the next 60 days. And this includes the fate of Iran's nuclear program. Again, remember, the U.S. and Iran were negotiating this issue in Switzerland back in February.

3:38And as it turns out, that's where this new agreement is supposed to be formally signed on Friday. OK, so Danielle, Greg lays this out like a return to the way things were before the war began. So now I'm curious how President Trump is portraying it. Well, he's sure of making it sound like he's done something unprecedented. In a social media post, he wrote, quote, The leaders of the region have, for the first time, found a president who can help them achieve real peace. But like Greg said, this is in many ways a return to the status quo. And let's also remember more than 3 ,000 people in Iran have been killed in this war, along with 15 U.S.

4:15service members. So in short, Trump is, yeah, overstating this as a victory when it really appears to just be fixing some of the problems he created. But he's also probably celebrating because he needed an off ramp here. His approval plummeted amid this war, including his approval on the economy, which had been a strong point for him. Gas prices went up. Fertilizer prices went up. Inflation passed 4%. So he wanted out. And now since this all was announced, yeah, oil prices have fallen and stocks went up. So Trump is likely happy, even if this memorandum isn't the win he says it is. OK, Greg, how is Iran responding to all of this?

4:52Yeah, multiple Iranian officials have spoken out in support of this agreement. And the general tone is that this is positive for Iran, though they're deeply suspicious of the U.S. when it comes to the upcoming negotiations. The Iranians are also offering a somewhat different interpretation on how parts of this agreement will work. Iran wants billions of dollars of its assets that have been frozen abroad. It wants U.S. and international sanctions lifted, and it wants this sooner rather than later. U.S. officials are stressing that this will be performance-based, that Iran will have to deliver on its part of the deal first before it gets money.

5:31Also, Iran's foreign ministry suggested Iran could charge fees for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, even as it opens up. Well, Trump is saying it will be toll free. Danielle, you were talking about the economic implications of this war. It's been pretty unpopular in the U.S. from the beginning. I'm curious whether you think this deal offers Trump a way to move on, even if there end up being problems with Iran down the road. I mean, it really depends on what those problems are. In general, yeah, this gives them a way to move on in the sense that we'll see gas and diesel prices drop, but it could be weeks or more until they're even anywhere near pre-war levels.

6:08And then for those prices to trickle through to other goods, that could take some time as well. But let's be real. Those prices are what many Americans care about. So will this ease Trump's political problems? Yeah, maybe some. But there are more complicated questions that hover over all of this. For example, how long of a memory will Americans have for this time of high prices? And then if Trump doesn't get what he wants on the nuclear front, does he look weak? Does this hurt his party in the midterms? And you really get the sense that the White House knows that the messaging is important here.

6:40Senior administration officials have done multiple calls where they're really just pushing back against what they call misinformation and emphasizing what they are framing as the big wins, even while we still don't know details. Okay, so Greg, you're talking to us from Tel Aviv, and this agreement actually does call for a second ceasefire, and that's one between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. I'm curious, is a truce likely to hold there? Yes, Scott, that really is a big question mark. Israeli troops are still all over southern Lebanon. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will keep them there indefinitely.

7:17Now, Hezbollah supports the ceasefire, but considers it a prelude to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. So if these Israeli troops remain on Lebanese territory, this will keep the region very tense. And one other point we should emphasize, Netanyahu spoke this evening about the Iran war and said, quote, this victory will endure for generations. But that really goes against the kind of assessment we're hearing throughout Israeli society today, particularly politicians and political analysts, they're saying overwhelmingly that this is a very bad deal and outcome for Israel. For decades, Netanyahu has been the leading Israeli voice in opposing Iran.

8:00He wanted to topple its government, dismantle its nuclear program. He long sought a major military campaign against Iran. It finally happened in the past few months, and now it's fallen far, far short of his goals. Danielle, all of this is happening as President Trump's at France for the G7 summit. Is he likely to find criticism there for launching this war or support for ending it? Well, we already saw a little general praise from French President Emmanuel Macron today. He called the deal important for addressing the nuclear issue, in his words. But of course, we still don't know how that nuclear issue will shake out.

8:35It's just possible that altogether the leaders at the G7 are going to praise Trump even while they're pretty frustrated with him. This war, after all, hurt their economies. Now, the U.K. and France have said they'll take the lead on getting mines out of the strait. That apparently is being discussed this week. But zooming out, as my colleague Franco Ordonez has reported, Trump's repeated antagonism towards European countries regarding NATO, Greenland, tariffs, it's really pushed those countries together and made them somewhat more willing to link arms and just disagree with the U.S. sometimes.

9:06That is NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben in Washington and Greg Myrie in Tel Aviv. Thanks to you both. Sure thing, Scott. This episode was produced by Kai McNamee with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. It was edited by James Heider, Rebecca Metzler, Sarah Handel, Courtney Dorning, and Tim Beat Ermias. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning.

9:30It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow. This week on Up First from NPR News, President Trump is at the G7 in France and is supposed to sign a peace deal with Iran. That deal, if it happens as planned, will have big effects on the global economy and more, and we will track the changes as they unfold. On a week of major geopolitical news, listen to Up First every morning on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.