What's Trump's Venezuela endgame?

0:00In the last seven days, U.S actions against Venezuela have escalated as the administration continues to target what it alleges are drug boats. On December 10th, the U.S. seized the skipper. As you probably know, we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large. Very, very large, and carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Then Tuesday night, President Trump declared on Truth Social, quote, I am ordering a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela, end quote. The Trump administration has made no secret it wants the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, and his allies out of office.

0:46His days are numbered. Nicolas Maduro, as he considers whether or not he wants to continue to be a narco-trafficker, has some decisions to make. He doesn't want to f*** around with the United States. Consider this. The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela and its leader. What's the ultimate goal? From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

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1:40It's Consider This from NPR. Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Venezuela. And this comes after the U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker and President Trump declared a complete blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers coming in and out of Venezuela. Venezuela's government calls this an outrageous threat intended to rob the country of its oil wealth. For more, I'm joined by two NPR correspondents following this story, Kerry Kahn in Rio de Janeiro and Greg Myra here in Washington. Hi, you two. Hi. Hi, Mary Louise. You kick us off, Greg. A blockade on tankers that are on a U.S. sanctions list.

2:20What does that actually look like? How big a deal is it? Yeah, it is a big deal. And this does ratchet up the pressure on Venezuela again. Now, we could certainly expect the U.S. to seize more oil tankers already on this U.S. sanctions list. In fact, the Coast Guard did that just last week with a ship that was off the coast. Now, a monitoring group, Tanker Trackers, said recently that around 30 of the 80 oil tankers in or near the waters of Venezuela were on a U.S. sanctions list. So these 30 could be potential targets, but others may not be. Many of these on the sanctions list are considered go-ships.

2:58They try to disguise their identity and location and are used by countries trying to evade Western sanctions. So this would include Venezuela, Russia, Iran. Now, if the U.S. blocks or seizes these tankers, it could be a major blow to Venezuela. It's a country hugely dependent on oil exports. A large, fully loaded tanker carries around$100 million worth of oil. One other point to put to you. The president has also said Venezuela must return, and I'm going to quote, must return all of the oil, land, and other assets that they previously stole from us. Do we know what he's talking about? Not precisely.

3:35This was not clear and a bit confusing. There's been some speculation today, some of it going all the way back to the 1970s. At that time, Western oil companies were the main player in Venezuela's oil industry. But the country began to nationalize the oil industry under a state-run company. Western companies were given a greatly reduced role and most eventually left over time. We should note one U.S. oil company, Chevron, is still operating in Venezuela despite all the turmoil in recent years. Chevron has a U.S. government license that exempts it from the U.S. sanctions. And the company says operations are still ongoing.

4:14Chevron produces a lot of Venezuela's oil, about a quarter to a third of its daily output. And that overall output is roughly a million barrels a day. Mary Louise, can I just jump in? Sure, please. Trump's focus now on Venezuela's oil was echoed in another post today from his deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller. He called the, quote, expropriation the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property. And like what Greg was saying, it's unclear exactly what Miller is referring to. There were some expropriations of remaining U.S. oil infrastructure in the mid-2000s in Venezuela under then-President Hugo Chavez.

4:54Maybe he was talking about that, too. Some analysts say this new emphasis could be a new negotiating avenue opening up for Maduro. Maybe the Trump administration is thinking, return some expropriated assets in exchange for staying where you are now, Maduro. OK, so we've been talking through what the Trump administration is saying. Carrie, what's the response? What does Venezuela tell us a little bit more about how they're taking this latest American threat? Officially, it's been loud. And as you could probably imagine, harsh in tone and chock full of nationalistic rally around the flag, defensive posturing.

5:30Here's a quick hit of a high volume retort from Venezuela's defense minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez. This was this morning on live TV. He had this cadre of fist-pumping military surrounding him, officers, and he called the new U.S. threats a clear act of aggression that makes it clear that what the U.S. is trying to do is all about Venezuela's oil and natural resources. He said, we're not intimidated by your taunts and threats. The attorney general of Venezuela also chimed in. He had a lot to say about Trump's claims that Venezuela stole U.S. land and property. He called that macabre, decadent and irrational.

6:11Kerry, one more to you, which is how this latest move fits into the bigger picture. We know President Trump, his team, they've made it clear they want Nicolas Maduro out of office. How does the blockade fit in? Will the blockade help achieve that? That's the huge question right now. You know, Trump tried in his first term to pressure Maduro out. This time we have the huge military buildup in the Caribbean, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking. all the way to increasing a reward for Maduro's arrest, designating Maduro and his corrupt officials a terrorist narco group. Now Trump is going to the heart of the Venezuelan economy.

6:49The oil revenues, like Greg said, are huge, nearly 90 percent of the country's entire revenue generating activity. So will this be the final straw and create the economic hardship to break the backs of the Venezuelans who will take to the streets? I asked a political scientist, Javier Cordal is that. He's a close Venezuela watcher at Amherst, and he says he just doesn't think so. It'll be very hard to get an uprising because Venezuela society has been significantly repressed to the point where folks are very wounded. They're wounded. They're exhausted from this long economic hardship, scarcities and long lines.

7:28We heard that a lot today on the street of Caracas. We spoke with many and they said they're just trying to take the heightened tensions as calmly as possible right now. Greg, about a minute left, but just remind us, does the U.S. have enough troops in place if they wanted to go ahead with a full-scale invasion? Well, that would really depend on the mission. The U.S. has at least a dozen warships in the region, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier. Altogether, the U.S. has around 15 ,000 troops at sea and on land. So that's far more firepower than you'd need just to block an oil tanker or even attack these suspected drug trafficking boats.

8:05In addition, the U.S. could certainly carry out sustained airstrikes against Venezuela if that's the plan. Now, if Trump is considering a ground invasion, then the U.S. would need a significant force, perhaps more in terms of ground troops that are there right now. We should stress that Trump has been intentionally vague about military action. He's been willing to use airstrikes in other places, But he's been very reluctant to send U.S. ground troops in either his first term or so far this term. That's been a red line for him. A red line indeed. And here's Greg Myrie in Washington and Kerry Kahn in Rio de Janeiro.

8:41Thanks, you too. Sure thing. This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam with audio engineering from Ted Meebane. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Christopher Intagliata. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. it's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.