Why ending the war in Iran is getting harder

0:00It's been 10 days now since President Trump said that the war in Iran was, quote, very complete, pretty much. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could go further and we're going to go further. I could call it that is an idea that the Trump administration has repeatedly asserted over nearly three weeks of war in Iran, even as Iran launched attacks throughout the region on U.S. military bases, on energy infrastructure and on cities like Riyadh and Dubai. Even as Iran brought shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a screeching halt and sent oil prices soaring.

0:40Over the past week, President Trump has said that the war would be wrapped up soon. And we're going to have a much safer world when it's wrapped up. That this little excursion, as President Trump calls it, would not go on much longer. Way ahead of schedule. Nobody would have thought. And that the war would end when he feels it in his bones. Consider this. President Trump keeps saying that the war will be over soon. that may no longer be strictly under his control.

1:13From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang.

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1:58It's Consider This from NPR. At the moment, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran looks more like it's escalating than slowing down. On Wednesday, Israel attacked a crucial Iranian natural gas field. Iran responded Thursday with a strike on the world's biggest liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar. And at a press briefing Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed reporting that the Pentagon would seek additional funding for the war. As far as$200 billion, I think that number could move, obviously. It takes money to kill bad guys. But he said that any assertion that the mission was widening was, quote, noise.

2:39And Hexeth reiterated the administration's position that President Trump himself would decide when the war is finished. It will be at the president's choosing, ultimately, where we say, hey, we've achieved what we need to on behalf of the American people to ensure our security. But not everyone thinks that ending the war will be so simple. I talked to Thomas Wright about that. He served as senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council under President Biden. He writes in The Atlantic that any off-ramp in Iran is disappearing. So the Trump administration has basically said that the end of the war is in President Trump's hands, that Trump can declare mission accomplished, essentially, whenever he wants.

3:22And then at that point, this war will be over. Do you think that will be the case?

3:28Thomas Wright:Yeah, I think his initial goal was a Venezuela style model where after the Supreme Leader was killed, he would do a deal with the number two, number three, number four, who'd be willing to work pragmatically with him and maybe cut the U.S. in on oil revenue or have some economic arrangement. But that possibility, you know, disappeared as more and more of the leadership were killed and as Moshava Hamini became the new supreme leader. And then his off-ramp was really declaring victory and getting out. And I think that's become much more difficult over the last week because the costs of the war are rising.

4:08Thomas Wright:The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran strikes on the Gulf states continues, including on energy infrastructure. And so if he were to stop military operations now, I think it would look more like a stalemate than the victory he wants. Is it your sense that Iran actually wants this war to continue? I think Iran only wants the war to end when it has some guarantee that he won't be back in six or eight or 10 months to strike again if it rebuilds. I think they want to impose costs on the U.S. and in Israel to deter a future strike. And so I don't think they would necessarily accept an unconditional cessation.

4:51Okay, well, let's talk about these possible off-ramps here. You outline some potential paths forward for this administration. One is taking a bit of a military gamble. Can you describe what that might look like?

5:05Thomas Wright:Yeah, I think, you know, President Trump could take greater risks to try to achieve a major tactical victory that would allow him to say that he has achieved his objectives and to end the war. So he could try to take Karg Island, where a lot of Iran's oil is. This is the principal oil export hub for Iran. Exactly. And he could order a military raid on some of the nuclear facilities in Isfahan or Nance to take the highly enriched uranium. But those are extremely high risk operations. The U.S. could easily take or possibly take casualties. You do say that another possibility is simply to wage a longer war, but you don't see that as plausible.

5:52Why not?

5:53Thomas Wright:Well, I think he may end up there anyway, but he is not prepared for a longer war. He's not prepared the American public or Congress for it. And, you know, munitions and air defenses are being depleted. And so, you know, he intended this to be three to four weeks long, I think he said, maybe a little bit longer, you know, at the beginning. If this goes on for three, four, five months with oil prices skyrocketing, potentially, you know, casualties on the allies' side higher than they are now, with no clear end in sight, I think it will become a very different animal. This administration continues to highlight that it has achieved overwhelming military success.

6:38Is it unreasonable to think that continually degrading Iran's military would eventually weaken the regime to the point where it is simply forced to give up?

6:48Thomas Wright:They're measuring that purely based on inputs on the number of targets they're hitting, but not necessarily on the effects. So, you know, Iran's strikes on the region continue. It strikes on energy facilities continue. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump sort of downplays that and says, you know, we've destroyed their navy. It's just some guys with a mine, you know, on the coast dropping one in now and again. I think that fairly dramatically understates it. But I think they are, you know, spinning a story that the war has already been won when it obviously, you know, has not. Another possible off-ramp is, of course, a negotiated settlement.

7:28But that seems pretty hard to imagine at this moment, don't you think?

7:32Thomas Wright:Yeah, I think it's it will be very difficult to imagine, partly because, you know, I think Iran will hold out for a deal that is more favorable to it than what it would have gotten before the war started. But I think that would be very tough for President Trump to accept. And so Iran is sort of counting on as the economic cost increases and the energy markets are roiled that Trump will look at compromise, messy compromises over time. Well, the Trump administration continues to argue that this war in Iran is different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which it says were the result of blunders by foolish politicians.

8:12But let me ask you, how much of a risk is there that this conflict in Iran turns into a similar mess with repercussions that last years and years?

8:22Thomas Wright:You know, no one intends wars initially to be very long. And certainly George W. Bush intended the war in Iraq to be short. The administration's view is that the reason those were long was rules of engagement that inhibited the U.S. from using force as much as was needed. I think that is demonstrably not true. And the second thing they say is that Bush tried to build democracy in Iraq and they're not concerned about building a democratic Jeffersonian democracy. But I think that also misrepresents the challenge because what governments find in these situations is they're trying to establish any type of government that does not view them as an enemy and is sort of stable domestically.

9:08Thomas Wright:domestically and avert sort of a descent into chaos. So they too have this problem. Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former director for strategic planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you. This episode was produced by Conor Donovan with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. It was edited by Tinbeat Ermias. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

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